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Regime Security and Kyrgyz Foreign Policy

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Regime Security and Kyrgyz Foreign Policy REGIME SECURITY AND KYRGYZ FOREIGN POLICY Submitted by Kemel Toktomushev to the University of Exeter as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics In August 2014 This thesis is available for Library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. I certify that all material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted and approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University. Signature: ………………………………………………………….. 1 Abstract This thesis presents a comprehensive study of Kyrgyz foreign policy from the early 1990s to 2011. It seeks to answer the following research question: how and to what extent does regime security affect Kyrgyz foreign policymaking? In so doing, this work aims to contribute to the understanding of Central Asian politics and the foreign policy sources of weak states across the post-Soviet space. The underlying theme of this dissertation is centred on the question whether neorealist or constructivist traditions provide a more in-depth account of the erratic Kyrgyz foreign policymaking. Notwithstanding a myriad of studies on weak states, the analysis of their foreign policies is limited and mostly characterised by idiosyncratic, reductionist and great power approaches. In this respect, an interpretive and inductive framework integrative of both internal and external variables and with properly contextualised causal mechanisms may explain the international behaviour of weak states in broader and more genuine terms. Thus, the puzzle to be resolved is whether the concepts of rent-seeking and virtual politics can either substitute for or complement the New Great Game narratives in the context of weak states in general and Kyrgyzstan in particular. 2 Table of Contents: Abstract ............................................................................................................. 2 Table of Contents.............................................................................................. 3 List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................ 6 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................ 9 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 10 Research Design and Methods ...................................................................... 12 Causal Design ........................................................................................ 12 Case Study and Causal Mechanisms ..................................................... 13 Process-tracing ...................................................................................... 14 Triangulation .......................................................................................... 16 Fieldwork ................................................................................................ 17 Ethics ..................................................................................................... 17 Challenges and Limitations .................................................................... 18 Significance .................................................................................................... 24 Structure of the Thesis ................................................................................... 25 Chapter I: One Foreign Policy, Many Theories ............................................ 28 Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) ........................................................................ 29 Foreign Policy and IR ..................................................................................... 35 FPA and IR ..................................................................................................... 44 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 53 Chapter II: Foreign Policy and Regime Security of Weak States ................ 54 Weak States ................................................................................................... 55 Regime Security in Weak States .................................................................... 60 Foreign Policy of Weak States ....................................................................... 67 3 The Great Game of Central Asia .................................................................... 76 State Performance ......................................................................................... 84 Rent-seeking .................................................................................................. 87 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 95 Chapter III: The Development of Kyrgyz Foreign Policy ............................. 97 Kyrgyz Foreign Policy at a Glance ................................................................. 98 Russia, China and the West ......................................................................... 111 “Weathercock Diplomacy” or Debating Multivectorism ................................. 120 Kyrgyzstan Adrift .......................................................................................... 128 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 140 Chapter IV: Military Security and Foreign Policy ....................................... 142 Kyrgyz Army at a Glance .............................................................................. 143 Russia and the CSTO .................................................................................. 150 China and the SCO ...................................................................................... 157 The USA and the NATO ............................................................................... 159 Ethnic Violence in the South of Kyrgyzstan .................................................. 163 Internal Security Services ............................................................................. 167 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 174 Chapter V: Manas Air Base ......................................................................... 176 Manas Air Base: From Famous to Infamous ................................................ 177 Manas International Services (MIS) and Aalam Services Ltd (Aalam) ......... 180 Rise of Red Star and Mina ........................................................................... 187 Rise of the Subcontractors ........................................................................... 194 Open Secrets and Closed Rules: The Political Economy of Base Closure .. 198 Rivalry from Within ....................................................................................... 208 Life after the April Revolution of 2010 .......................................................... 211 4 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 214 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 216 Regime Security and Foreign Policy ............................................................ 216 Generalisation of Findings: Multilevel Framework of Analysis and Process-Tracing ........................................................................................... 221 The Political Economy of Rent-Seeking and Political Instability .................. 225 Global Anti-Corruption Regime as a Normative Aspiration ........................... 227 Epilogue ....................................................................................................... 230 Interview List ................................................................................................. 231 Bibliography .................................................................................................. 234 5 List of Abbreviations: AFS Aero Fuels Service APM Aircraft Petrol Management AUB AsiaUniversalBank CACO Central Asian Cooperation Organisation CAEU Central Asian Economic Union CAF Central Asia Fuels CAU Central Asian Union Centrasbat Central Asian Battalion CFP Comparative Foreign Policy CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CRDF CSTO’s Collective Rapid Deployment Forces CRRF CSTO’s Collective Rapid Reaction Forces CST Collective Security Treaty CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organisation DLA Energy Defence Logistics Agency-Energy DoD U.S. Department of Defence EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EU European Union EurAsEC Eurasian Economic Community FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation FPA Foreign Policy Analysis GAK Gazpromneft Aero-Kyrgyzstan GKChP State Committee on the State of Emergency GKNB State Committee on National Security GUUAM Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova HCR Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IISS International Institute of Strategic Studies ILO International Labour Organization 6 IMF International Monetary Fund IMU Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan IR International Relations ISAF International Security Assistance Force KAS Kyrgyz Aviation Services KGB Committee for State Security of the USSR KGS Kyrgyz Som KIC Kyrgyz Inquiry Commission MAF Manas Aero Fuels MFA
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