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Farming Teamsheet Retail Quarterly Bulletin Q3 2015 Market Focus Shopping Centres Indicative Prime Yields (NIY) 29/09/2015 3 Months Ago 1 Year Ago 4.25% 4.50% 4.50% Market Overview Q3 saw approximately £1.05 billion of shopping centre transactions to add to the £1.78 billion completed in H1. The first three quarters of 2015 have therefore delivered £2.83 billion, which is substantially down on 2014’s first three quarters total of circa £4 billion. Demand for London shopping centres remains extremely strong, with the two largest and most competitively priced transactions of the quarter being the sales of the Angel Centre in Islington to CBREGI for £171 million at 4.1% NIY; and West One Shopping Centre on Oxford Street, W1 to Norges for £240 million at 3.50% NIY. Despite the reduced investment volumes to date, there is a significant pipeline of potential sales from centres either under offer or recently brought to the market, which is likely to see H2 sales volumes well ahead of H1, although at this stage unlikely to match the 2014 annual sales volume of £5.7 billion. Whilst strong interest for prime centres continues to attract highly competitive bidding, demand for secondary assets is now more patchy and very much asset specific, with Grafton Centre, Cambridge pricing weakening for poorer secondary / tertiary centres, where the opportunities to achieve the necessary target rates of return appear more limited. Net Initial Date Property Price Purchaser Vendor Yield Sep-15 Houndshill, Blackpool £100,000,000 6.30% New Frontier / Waypoint Blackstone / Catalyst Grafton Centre, Cambridge £99,000,000 5.20% Legal & General M&G Aug-15 Eastgate, Inverness £116,000,000 6.75% Harbert / Scoop BMO Real Estate Partners St Nicholas Centre, Sutton £71,600,000 7.00% AEW Criterion Capital Friars Square, Aylesbury £41,600,000 7.60% Rockspring RBS West Register High Street Indicative Prime Yields (NIY) - Provincial 29/09/2015 3 Months Ago 1 Year Ago 4.25% 4.25% 4.50% Market Overview The high street market has seen increased market activity, with a significant amount of stock coming to the market, a lot of which has been institutional grade product, which has not been seen for quite some time. Although the pressure on retail funds to spend appears to be slowing slightly, investor demand remains strong and we are still aware of many requirements for prime shops, which is likely to see continued competitive bidding for such assets. The marketing of Legal & General’s Magna Portfolio of four prime south east high street assets will be a good test of this market (quoting £31.43 million, 4.59% NIY). With an improving occupational market, the secondary high street retail market is 69-75 Above Bar Street, starting to offer greater opportunities and potential value to investors willing to look Southampton beyond core assets. 69-75 Above Bar Street, Southampton Net Initial Date Property Price Purchaser Vendor Yield Sep-15 43-45 Queen Street, Cardiff £19,840,000 4.80% Patrizia Primark House of Fraser, Kingston- Sep-15 £17,500,000 6.20% Redefine International Kames Capital Upon-Hull 69-75 Above Bar Street, LaSalle Investment Jul-15 £9,250,000 8.75% AEW Southampton Management Retail Bulletin | Q3 2015 Market Focus Retail Warehousing Indicative Prime Yields (NIY) 29/09/2015 3 Months Ago 1 Year Ago Open A1 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% Bulky Goods 5.75% 5.75% 5.75% Market Overview Sale volumes for Q3 2015 were approximately £965 million. Although 22% down on the same period in 2014, investment momentum has continued in the out of town sector, with the weight of money still driving activity despite a shortage of quality stock and “pickier” investor requirements. A number of prime parks traded in the quarter, including Banbury Cross Retail Park, Banbury; Bugsby’s Way, Greenwich; and Parkgate Retail Park, Rotherham. We anticipate increased stock to enter the market in Q4 as a number of funds look to take advantage of market liquidity. Birstall Shopping Park, Leeds Net Initial Date Property Price Purchaser Vendor Yield Banbury Cross Retail Park, Sep-15 £52,500,000 5.60% Redefine International Aegon UK Property Fund Banbury Sep-15 Bugsby’s Way, Greenwich £38,000,000 5.60% Royal London LXB Retail B&Q, Milton Keynes £34,800,000 6.00% Private Investor KFH Aug-15 Parkgate Retail Park, £175,000,000 6.15% BMO Real Estate LaSalle Investment Rotherham Partners Management Birstall Shopping Park, £110,000,000 6.50% Legal & General British Land Leeds Foodstores Indicative Prime Yields (NIY) Sainsbury’s Putney 29/09/2015 3 Months Ago 1 Year Ago 4.25% 4.25% 4.00% Market Overview Transaction volumes in Q3 remained low with very few prime stores being sold in the market. The “Big 4” operators remain determined to reduce floorspace and portfolios of unwanted space have come to market. Many of the investments brought to the market are of more secondary quality, situated in challenging trading locations. However, with strong covenants sitting behind long leases, there is a market for this type of product at an attractive discount to prime. Sainsbury’s, Cannock Net Initial Date Property Price Purchaser Vendor Yield Sainsbury’s, Cannock £52,900,000 5.00% CBREGI Aviva DTZ Investment Jul-15 Tesco, Cambridge £44,500,000 4.75% Orchard Street IM Management Retail Bulletin | Q3 2015 Agency & Development In Town Retailer demand continues to improve across the UK, remaining particularly strong in the top 50 / 75 retail locations and best market towns. Retailer formats continue to evolve: o Holland & Barratt continue to take circa 5,000 sq ft units in 100% prime locations. o Initial reports of Decathlon’s first in town store in Southside Wandsworth are of above expectation trading, with other in town stores now under consideration. o IKEA opens its first ‘order and collection’ store in Norwich in November, with two other stores rumoured to be under offer. Grafton Centre, Cambridge o Tesla Motors has begun to take prime units within shopping centres to promote electric car sales. F&B continues to be a significant footfall driver. Demand from restaurants in this sector continues, with a host of new Out of Town concepts from existing operators such as Reys, MOD, Pilgrim Pizza and Rise. Matalan has opened its first small format retail park store in Kendal (circa 11,000 sq ft) and is planning to continue this concept elsewhere. Original Factory Shop is seeking outlets on retail parks and currently has two stores under offer. It is seeking units of 5,000 sq ft on ground floor, with 2,500 sq ft mezzanines. Pep & Co is expanding to an out of town preference alongside its town centre stores. Out of town it is targeting units of 10,000 sq ft on retail parks and is planning to have 10 stores open by April next year. Tapi Carpets continues to expand aggressively with new stores opening on retail parks in St Albans, Cannock, Development Gloucester and Southampton. The development pipeline is slowly but surely starting to Mattressman is seeking space on retail parks for units of return to some semblance of normality. between 2,500 sq ft – 5,000 sq ft (ideally 4,500 sq ft on ground floor) and has reportedly agreed terms to acquire 2015 - 4 new retail developments open / opening: units in both Leicester and Northampton. Birmingham Grand Central 24 September Beverley Flemmingate 3 November Bradford Westfield 5 November Newport Friars Walk 12 November 2016 - 5 new retail and leisure developments to open: Chelmsford Bond Street 300,000 sq ft Hinckley The Crescent 250,000 sq ft 450,000 sq ft Leeds Victoria Gate (Phase 1) Southampton Watermark 180,000 sq ft Stafford Riverside 250,000 sq ft 2017 - 2 new retail developments on site: The Crescent, Hinckley Bracknell The Lexicon 580,000 sq ft Oxford Westgate 800,000 sq ft A number of existing centre extensions continue to be worked up at different stages, including Eastbourne (L&G), Milton Keynes & Nottingham (Intu) and Solihull (Lend Lease). Retail Bulletin | Q3 2015 Economic Overview Finance Rates Date Base Rate 3 Month LIBOR 5 Year Swap 5 Year Gilt 29/09/2015 0.50% 0.48% 1.42% 1.19% 3 Months Ago 0.50% 0.58% 1.86% 1.66% 1 Year Ago 0.50% 0.56% 1.95% 1.80% The final estimate for UK GDP in Q2 2015 confirmed growth at 0.7%, with annual growth for 2014 revised downwards 0.1% to 2.9%. Real household disposable income continued to expand at a healthy pace, rising 2.0% from Q1 2015. The most recent HM Treasury release showed that the panel of independent forecasters have reduced their UK GDP forecast for 2015 very slightly to 2.5%. The latest growth forecast for 2016 is 2.4%. The rate of inflation (CPI) dropped below zero again to -0.1% in September, driven by the continued fall in the price of fuel. It remains unlikely that a UK rate rise will happen before the end of the year. August retail sales data from the ONS showed a continued period of year-on-year growth, with the volume of retail sales estimated to have increased by 3.7% compared with August 2014. This was the 29th consecutive month of year-on-year growth. The value of online sales also increased by 7.4%, although average store prices (including petrol stations) fell by 3.3% in August compared with 12 months earlier. The latest employment statistics for the three months to August 2015 showed that employment rose by 140,000, with unemployment falling by 79,000, to a rate of 5.4%.
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