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Country Brief COUNTRY BRIEF June 2019 Projecting future water availability in Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin Malawi’s development is strongly tied to water availability Malawi is highly dependent on water from Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin (Figure 1). Over 90% of Malawi’s electricity depends on outflows from the lake into the Shire River which feed three existing hydropower plants – Tedzani, Nkula and Kapichira – with expansion anticipated at the latter two, and plans for additional hydropower stations. Most of the country’s irrigated agriculture is dependent on the river. Regular flows of water are also essential to maintain a wetland system (the Elephant Marsh) and the ecosystem services that it provides. Pressure on water resources is likely to increase as a result of a growing population, and competing demands for water for energy, agriculture, industrial and domestic purposes. Understanding the scale of potential future changes in water availability under climate change is thus essential to inform socio-economic development planning in Malawi. In this brief we use computer-based water resources models to project future water availability reflecting demand and the effects of water management strategies. Lake Malawi and the Shire rainfall variability led to low lake levels also affect the ability of Lake Malawi River basin: a dynamic system which resulted in no outflows to the and the Shire River to supply water to Shire River (1910-24). Construction of the different sectors. Water levels in Lake Malawi fluctuate Kamuzu Barrage in 1965 enabled control 32°0'0"E 34°0'0"E 36°0'0"E throughout the year reflecting the of outflows from the lake into the Shire ´ contribution of lake tributaries, rainfall River. The highest recorded outflows 10°0'0"S and evaporation over the lake, and occurred in 1979-80. However, since outflows to the Shire River. The highest then droughts have significantly reduced outflows usually occur at the end of the water availability on several occasions, rainy season, and the lowest outflows at including in 1992-3 and 2015-16 with 12°0'0"S the end of the dry season. the El Niño events. Malawi Tanzania Water levels also show change over Decisions to change land use in the basin 14°0'0"S Mozambique time, reflecting a combination of natural – from forestry to agriculture – also play Lake Malawi Shire River factors and management decisions a role in affecting the speed with " Lake Malombe (Figure 2). In the early 20th century which water drains into the lake from " 16°0'0"S Kamuzu Barrage the catchment. While climate change LMSRB Catchments is expected to be an important driver 2977 m above sea level About FCFA of changes in rainfall, and therefore 35 m above sea level Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) aims to water availability, decisions regarding generate fundamentally new climate science the management of lake levels will Figure 1: Location, elevation and focused on Africa, and to ensure that this science has an impact on human development across catchments of the Lake Malawi Shire the continent. River Basin www.futureclimateafrica.org Figure 2: Past water levels in Lake Malawi (1921-2018) and Shire River streamflow at the Kamuzu Barrage at Liwonde (1948-2009) 477.0 900 Average Annual Lake Malawi Water Level 476.5 1980, 476.5 Average Annual Streamflow downstream of outflow 476.0 800 475.5 700 475.0 474.5 600 474.0 473.5 500 473.0 400 472.5 472.0 300 Streamflow (m3/s) Streamflow 471.5 1930, 471.4 Annual Lake Malawi levels (masl) levels Malawi Lake Annual 471.0 200 470.5 100 470.0 469.5 0 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Year Pre 1965 1965-1993 Post 1993 Significantly lower in the past Kamuzu Barrage constructed After a drought from 1992-5 with fluctuations and outflow in 1965 allowed management the barrage restricted outflows threshold of 471.5 metres above of lake outflows; historic high to maintain lake levels sea level (masl) crossed in the (477m) reached in 1979-80 early 20th century Determining water countries. It includes analysis of water Customising the modelling and analysis availability – using the Water demand (water use patterns and to the local context of hydrology Evaluation And Planning allocation) and supply (streamflow, and management decisions is crucial system (WEAP) model groundwater, reservoirs and transfers). to generating stakeholder-relevant Once established, WEAP can be used as a information. decision support tool for assessing water WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning, availability and supply requirements The UMFULA research team of the Future www.weap21.org) is a software for key sectors. Scenarios can also be Climate for Africa (FCFA) Programme tool for integrated water resources explored to evaluate the implications developed a WEAP model for the Lake planning developed by the Stockholm of different water development Malawi Shire River basin using a four Environment Institute. WEAP is easily and management options on water step process of stakeholder engagement accessible without payment of a software availability and demand. over a three year period (Figure 3). This is licence for users from developing part of UMFULA’s work that aims to 2 support long-term decisions in central • Electricity Supply Corporation of offtakes and irrigation), and priority and southern Africa around resource use, Malawi Ltd (ESCOM) (ESCOM has features of the basin to model (Figure 4). infrastructure investment and cross- recently been split into ESCOM and An iterative development process sectoral growth priorities. Electricity Generation Company Ltd. produced a model that addresses (EGENCO) stakeholder questions and priorities. Stakeholders that were consulted for The model is transferable and, the development of the WEAP model • Shire River Basin Management with further development, could be include: Programme (SRBMP) used by Malawi’s planners and decision • Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and makers for scenario analysis, to examine Water Development (Departments • Operators of the Kamuzu Barrage. different combinations of future water, of Irrigation, Surface Water, and energy and food production in the Agriculture Extension Services) Stakeholders informed our country. Further details are available understanding of historical and current in the submitted journal article by water resource management practices, • Department of National Parks Bhave et al. and Wildlife planned infrastructure (new barrages, Figure 3: The iterative WEAP model development process between UMFULA researchers and local stakeholders Preliminary Building trust Validate Sector options Communicate one to one with sectoral conceptual and preliminary Stakeholder stakeholder stakeholders model with performance results for Engagement consultations stakeholders metrics feedback Process April 2016 Dec 2016 June 2017 Nov 2017 June 2018 Water Dene Study Future work Understand Develop water Scenarios and Area and based on Resources basin resources robust options Decision stakeholder Modelling hydrology model Context feedback 3 Figure 4: WEAP model schematic for the Lake Malawi Shire River Basin representing the catchments delineated in the map showing elevation (left). This transboundary basin covers parts of Malawi, Tanzania and Mozambique. The WEAP model structure includes lake catchments, Lake Malawi reservoir, flow requirement downstream of the barrage (termed Release) and three existing hydropower stations. Lake Malawi catchments inflow into the ‘Routing River’ which flows to the Lake Malawi reservoir. 4 How accurate is the WEAP used to analyse future scenarios. indicator of the utility of the model for model in simulating Model performance is assessed by representing future lake level changes comparing observational data with (Figure 5). The model has less ability variability in Lake Malawi simulated data. to capture monthly flows downstream and the Shire River basin? The WEAP model shows of Lake Malawi. Model performance reasonable ability to simulate is strongly affected by limited data It is important to assess the extent to lake levels, capturing seasonal availability and intermittent records which the model is able to capture the variation, and showing sensitivity of management decisions at the hydrological and water management to changes in rainfall and barrage Kamuzu Barrage. characteristics of the basin before it is operation, which is an important Figure 5: (a) Observed and simulated monthly Lake Malawi levels for the period 1960-2009 along with inset of table with goodness-of-fit statistics for the entire period. (b) shows observed and simulated average annual streamflow at Liwonde (Kamuzu Barrage) (Bhaveet al. submitted). l (a) e 477.5 v e Goodnessof t statistic Performance l a 477.0 Coecient of Determination (R2) 0.81 e s n 476.5 Nash Sutclie Eciency Coecient 0.77 a e Percent Bias -0.01 m 476.0 e v o 475.5 b a s e 475.0 r t e 474.5 m ) e d 474.0 u t i t l 473.5 a ( l Observed Lake Malawi Levels e 473.0 v e Modelled Lake Malawi Levels l e 472.5 k a L Jan-60 Jan-62 Jan-64 Jan-66 Jan-68 Jan-70 Jan-72 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 MonthMonth 900 (b) Liwonde Observed Streamflow ) s 800 c e Liwonde Simulated Streamflow m 700 u c ( e 600 g r a 500 h c s i d 400 l a u 300 n n a 200 e g a r 100 e v A 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 5 How will climate change to the maximum level that can be Shire River as they show a consistent affect future outflows from simulated (480 metres above sea level), reduction over time. Under such Lake Malawi? after which unrestricted downstream conditions, downstream releases would flows occur (effectively reservoir likely need to be constrained, leading to The WEAP model was then run under overtopping) which would likely lead the risk of insufficient water downstream future climate projections from 29 to downstream flooding.
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