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Ice Giants Decadal Study

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Ice Giants Decadal Study SDO-12345 Ice Giants Decadal Study Revision 6/3/2010 William B. Hubbard [email protected] SDO-12345 Planetary Science Decadal Survey Mission Concept Study Final Report Executive Summary.............................................................................................................. 4 1. Scientific Objectives .................................................................................................... 5 Science Questions and Objectives ................................................................................................................................... 5 Science Traceability ............................................................................................................................................................ 12 2. High-Level Mission Concept .......................................................................................14 Study Request & Concept Maturity Level .................................................................................................................. 14 Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Technology Maturity .......................................................................................................................................................... 17 Key Trades .............................................................................................................................................................................. 17 3. Technical Overview ...................................................................................................19 Instrument Payload Description ................................................................................................................................... 19 Flight System ......................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Concept of Operations and Mission Design .............................................................................................................. 40 Risk List ................................................................................................................................................................................... 48 4. Development Schedule and Schedule Constraints ......................................................49 High-Level Mission Schedule .......................................................................................................................................... 49 Technology Development Plan ...................................................................................................................................... 49 Development Schedule and Constraints .................................................................................................................... 50 5. Mission Life-Cycle Cost ..............................................................................................50 Costing Methodology and Basis of Estimate ............................................................................................................. 50 Cost Estimate(s) ................................................................................................................................................................... 59 __________________________________________________________ SDO-12345 Appendices A. Study Team Listing B. Master Equipment List and Power Phasing Table C. Study Summary Briefing D. Science ACE Run Presentation E. Mission Design Presentation and Data F. Operations ACE Run Presentation and Data G. SEP Stage COMPASS Run Presentation H. Probe and Orbiter Subsystem Presentations I. References and Bibliography Ice Giants Decadal Mission Study Final Report 3 SDO-12345 Executive Summary The purpose of this study was to define a preferred concept approach along with the risk/cost trade space for a Uranus or Neptune Mission launched in the 2020–2023 time frame and within a cost range of $1.5B–$1.9B in FY15$. The study was conducted by a team led by William Hubbard with members of both the Giant Planets and Satellites Panels working with the JHU/APL Space Department as the design center. NASA Glenn Research Center’s COMPASS team made significant contributions as part of the design team in the areas of mission design, solar electric propulsion stage concept development, and Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator performance. NASA Langley Research Center also played a significant role in the areas of aerocapture evaluation and entry probe descent trajectory analysis. Georgia Institute of Technology was also a significant contributor to the mission design team in the area of developing the Uranus satellite tour. Initial energy trades identified Uranus as more accessible and a lower risk option within the specified launch time frame ,and work on a Neptune option was dropped by the panel after a couple of weeks into the study. Since a Jupiter flyby option was not available during the launch years studied, a Neptune mission would have required unproven aerocapture technology or a cruise time well beyond 15 years. A low-thrust solar electric propulsion trajectory option was developed to Uranus based on a single Earth gravity assist that could be repeated every year with a 21-day launch window. Using a launch on an Atlas V 531 and allowing a 13-year cruise time, a concept was developed that could accommodate both the floor and enhanced orbiter payload, perform atmospheric science with a fully equipped shallow entry probe, and perform multiple targeted flybys of each of the five Uranian satellites. No new technology is required with the exception of continued development of large parasol solar arrays (similar to Orion) to power the solar electric propulsion stage. All science objectives (Tiers 1–3) could be technically achieved with compromises needed for viewing periapse from Earth and periapse altitude in order to satisfy the requirement of keeping the orbit trajectory safely outside of the rings. However, communications with Earth can be achieved shortly before and after periapse at a radius of 1.5 RU to help with achieving the gravity measurements. In all other areas, the objectives could fully be achieved. Cost for the full mission (with enhanced payload, probe, and tour) was estimated at $1,894M, which falls within the cost range requirements of the study. Descope options would include removing the satellite tour, with an estimated cost savings of $26M mostly due to operations and Deep Space Network cost savings realized by reducing the mission by 14 months. The second option would be to reduce to the floor payload on both the probe and orbiter, with an estimated savings of $120M in instrument development cost. Finally, the entry probe could be descoped with a savings of $310M in probe development, integration and testing, and operations costs. These cost estimates assume FY15$ and reserves. Some further savings might be possible if the concept were optimized for the floor solution but would likely be of smaller impact. Overall, the study has developed a concept that can achieve very robust science at Uranus at a cost below flagship mission levels and with minimal required technology development. Finally, significant descope options are available to ensure that the mission is affordable. Ice Giants Decadal Mission Study Final Report 4 SDO-12345 1. Scientific Objectives Science Questions and Objectives Uranus and Neptune represent a distinct class of planet. Their composition and interior structure are known much less well than those of the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn. While Jupiter and Saturn are composed mostly of hydrogen (more than 90% by mass) with hydrogen envelopes thought to extend all the way to relatively small rock/ice cores, molecular H2 beginning a transition to ionized, metallic hydrogen at mega-bar pressures (Guillot 2005; Lissauer and Stevenson 2007), Uranus and Neptune possess much smaller hydrogen envelopes (less than 20% by mass) that never make the transition to metallic hydrogen (Guillot 2005). The bulk composition of these planets is dominated by much heavier elements, oxygen, carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur being the likely candidates based on cosmic abundances. Since these species are thought to have been incorporated into proto-planets primarily as ices, either as solids themselves or as gas trapped in a water-ice clathrate (Hersant et al. 2004), Uranus and Neptune are often referred to as “ice giants.” However, it is thought that there is currently very little ice in these planets, a supercritical fluid being the preferred phase of H2O at depth. Science Questions There are many important science questions that can only be addressed by an orbiter at Uranus or Neptune to build upon data from Voyager 2, which was obtained with technology launched more than a generation ago, as well as more recent data from Earth-based telescopes. Results from an orbiter/probe at Uranus or Neptune, along with similar measurements from the Galileo probe/orbiter and the Cassini orbiter, will be used to constrain models of giant planet and Solar System formation and evolution. Knowledge of the ice-to-rock and ice-to-gas ratios, as well as the absolute abundance of species such as noble gases and water, provides information about the conditions in the planetary nebula and the planet formation process
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