WEEKLY MARKET WATCH SIC-FSL INVESTMENT+ RESEARCH| MARKET REVIEWS|

11th September, 2014

SIC FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED|ADVISORY|FUND MANAGEMENT|STOCK BROKERAGE|INVESTMENT RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET GSE STAYS UP

INDICATORS WEEK OPEN WEEK END CHANGE Strong demand for some listed equities improved the momentum

Market Capitalization (GH¢ on the (GSE) for another consecutive week 'million) 63,174.64 63,557.62 0.61% running. Investors' interest in stocks like Ecobank Transnational Market Capitalization (US$' Incorporated (ETI), Cocoa Processing Company Limited (CPC), million) 19,897.52 19,885.37 -0.06% Ghana Commercial Bank Limited (GCB), Guinness Ghana Volume traded (shares) 3,500,198.00 2,491,211.00 -28.83% Breweries Limited (GGBL), and Limited (EBG) were enough to sustain the market’s upward shift. Value Traded (GH¢) 7,395,095.36 5,404,973.86 -26.91%

Value Traded (US$) 2,329,163.89 1,691,062.47 -27.40% This, saw key market indices rallied across board despite the Table 1: Market Summary advantage laggards had over gainers. This could be linked to the magnitude of successful bids in the period, hence the 0.68% jump INDEX ANALYSIS by the broader market (GSE Composite Index), to close at an annual yield of 3.34%. INDICATORS Closing Week YTD Level Change CHANGE The SIC-FSL Top 15 index (SIC-FSL T-15) which tracks the performance of the 15 most liquid equities on the Ghana Stock GSE Composite Index 2,213.41 0.52% 3.18% Exchange (GSE) gained 2.66% over the period, whilst financial

SIC-FSL Top 15 Index 4,113.12 2.66% 19.02% stocks (GSE FSI) also appreciated by 1.73% to see both yields settle at 19.02% and 20.42% respectively. GSE Financial Stocks Index 2,151.48 1.73% 20.42% Table 2: Key Stock Market Indices

25.00% LIQUIDITY 20.00%

15.00% A total volume of 2.49 million shares exchanged hands at the close of trading last week. Although Cal bank recorded a trade of 1.01 million 10.00% shares in a single block within the period, total shares traded lagged behind the previous week’s level of 3.50 million shares. Value traded 5.00% was down last week, despite improvement in market activities. Turnover

0.00%

was GH¢5.40 million, representing a decline of 26.92% when

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compared to the week before. Jul

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Jun Jun

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Aug Aug Aug

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17 27 15 29

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12 22 Cal Bank (CAL) and Fan Milk Limited (FML) emerged the most traded GSE YTD Change GSE-FSI YTD SIC-FSL 15 YTD Change equity with respect to volume and value traded, accounting for 40.98% Fig 1: Year-to-date returns and 48.55% respectively.

MARKET MOVERS

STOCK Wk Open Wk End Change % CPC returns to 2-pesewas TICKER change The Cocoa Processing Company Limited (CPC) ended the week as the CPC 0.01 0.02 0.01 100.00% top gainer, after advancing 100.0% in value to close at GH¢0.02 per EBG 7.05 7.06 0.01 0.14% share. The rise seemed to have been sparked by the news that, CPC might resume chocolate production by the end of the month. ETI 0.33 0.36 0.03 9.09%

According to the Managing Director (MD) Richard Amarh Tetteh, GCB 4.56 4.84 0.28 6.14% barring any unforeseen major setback, the company would resume production of Chocolate by the end of September. Management of GGBL 2.55 2.72 0.17 6.67% Table 3: Gainers for the week CPC shut down portions of the Confectionery Factory for rehabilitation and routine maintenance in the early days of May.

Somehow, the information above appeared to be the only bull-bait for the company’s price appreciation on the exchange. STOCK Wk Open Wk End Change % TICKER change AYRTN 0.18 0.17 -0.01 -5.56% ETI hits a record price of GH¢0.36 CAL 0.89 0.88 -0.01 -1.12%

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI); the bank with the biggest FML 4.96 4.89 -0.07 -1.41% coverage across the continent, emerged the second best performing stock after CPC on the Accra Bourse last week. The stock gained 9.09%, GOIL 1.00 0.99 -0.01 -1.00% to settle at a record price of GH¢0. 36 per share due to the prospect investors anticipates in the near future. SIC 0.41 0.39 -0.02 -4.88% TLW 35.05 35.00 -0.05 -0.14% ETI is currently trading at a 2.0 % premium to its book value price per share of GH¢0. 35. UNIL 17.00 15.00 -2.00 -11.76% CORPORATE NEWS UTB 0.33 0.29 -0.04 -12.12%

Table 4: Laggards for the week

PZ CUSSONS (PZC) ANNOUNCES ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING (AGM): PZC has scheduled Friday, 26th September, 2014 for its 56th Annual General Meeting (AGM) to be held at the Ghana – India Kofi

Annan Centre for Excellence in ICT along the Ringway Estates, Accra CAL, 40.98% at 11.00 am prompt. The agenda of the business will include the FML, 21.54% following:

1. Accept 2013 Financial Statements and the auditor’s report thereon.

2. Appointment and re-election of Directors SOGEGH, 3. Authorize Directors to fix remuneration of the Auditors. 14.96%

4. Approval of Directors remuneration Others, 8.77% ETI, 10.78% EBG, 2.98%

TOTAL PETROLEUM GHANA LIMITED (TOTAL): TOTAL has Fig 2: Top 5 most liquid equities with respect to volume traded appointed Mr. Oliver Van Parys as a member of the Board of Directors and also as a Managing Director of the company. The company has also appointed Mr. Martin Amenyedzi as a Board Member of the company. Their appointment took effect from the 1st September, 2014 and July 16, 2014 respectively, they replace Mr. Guillaume Larroque and Mr. Samuel Manu Asiama.

Stock Ticker Year Opening Closing Price @ YTD Gain/Loss (%) Price(GH¢) 11/09/2014 (GH¢) African Champion Industries Ltd. ACI 0.06 0.03 -50.00% AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. AGA 37.00 37.00 0.00% Aluworks Limited ALW 0.05 0.04 -20.00% Ayrton Drug Manufacturing Ltd. AYRTN 0.17 0.17 0.00% Benso Oil Palm Plantation BOPP 3.21 3.60 12.15% Cal Bank Ltd CAL 0.97 0.88 -9.28% Clydestone (Ghana) Ltd. CLYD 0.04 0.03 -25.00% Camelot Ghana Ltd. CMLT 0.16 0.14 -12.50% Cocoa Processing Co. Ltd. CPC 0.02 0.02 0.00% Ecobank Ghana Ltd. EBG 5.61 7.06 25.85% Limited EGL 1.88 1.69 -10.11% Ecobank Transnational Inc. ETI 0.19 0.36 89.47% Fan Milk Ltd. FML 6.62 4.89 -26.13% Ghana Commercial Bank Ltd. GCB 4.85 4.84 -0.21% Guinness Ghana Breweries Ltd. GGBL 6.20 2.72 -56.13% Ghana Oil Company Limited GOIL 0.89 0.99 11.24% Golden Star Resources Ltd. GSR 2.75 2.34 -14.91% Golden Web Ltd. GWEB 0.04 0.04 0.00% HFC Bank (Ghana) Ltd. HFC 0.96 1.35 40.63% Mega Africa Capital Ltd MAC 3.10 3.59 15.81% Mechanical Lloyd Co. Ltd. MLC 0.38 0.29 -23.68% Pioneer Kitchenware Ltd. PKL 0.06 0.06 0.00% Produce Buying Company Ltd. PBC 0.17 0.11 -35.29% PZ Cussons Ghana Ltd. PZ 0.79 0.40 -49.37% Standard Chartered Bank (GH) Ltd.* SCB 14.94 18.20 21.82% SIC Insurance Company Ltd. SIC 0.39 0.39 0.00% Starwin Products Ltd. SPL 0.04 0.03 -25.00% Limited SOGEGH 0.75 0.95 26.67% Sam Woode Ltd. SWL 0.03 0.04 33.33% Trust Bank Ltd. (The Gambia) TBL 0.35 0.24 -31.43% Total Petroleum Ghana Ltd. TOTAL 5.06 6.10 20.55% Transaction Solutions (Ghana) Ltd. TRANSOL 0.03 0.03 0.00% Tullow Oil Plc TLW 34.98 35.00 0.06% Unilever Ghana Ltd. UNIL 18.31 15.00 -18.08% UT Bank UTB 0.45 0.29 -35.56% AngloGold Ashanti Depository Shares AADS 0.52 0.52 0.00% Standard Chartered Bank Preference shares SCB PREF 0.52 0.55 5.77% NewGold Exchange Traded Fund GLD 26.13 22.40 -14.27%

Table 5: Performance of listed equities from year open

CEDI TRIMS LOSSES CURRENCY MARKET

The managed to trim some losses on the interbank market, signifying the rise in investors’ confidence on the currency EXCHANGE RATES BUYING SELLING YTD market. CHANGE USDGHS 3.1949 3.1975 47.87%▼ This is prior to the oversubscription of Ghana’s third Eurobond and cocoa syndicated loan for the 2014/15 season. The 12-year GBPGHS 5.1569 5.1624 44.42%▼ maturity bond attracted US$2.9 billion bids from foreign investors although the Government settled for $1 billion at a coupon rate 8.12%. COCOBOD also accepted about $1.7 billion of the $1.84 EURGHS 4.1255 4.1282 38.20%▼ billion offers it received for the purchase of cocoa beans.

Table 6: Inter-bank indicative rates The Cedi recorded a holistic appreciation of 0.19% in value, representing a year-to-date depreciation of 41.17% from 41.43%

▲ year-to-date appreciation previously. ▼ year-to-date depreciation

Looking ahead, we expect the Eurobond inflows as well the cocoa loan syndication to help the Cedi to stabilize on the currency Dollar maintains upside performance market. 60.00% The Cedi failed to pare its weekly drop versus the Dollar last 50.00% week following the release of the inflation report for the month of August. 40.00% 30.00% According to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), inflation rose from 15.3% in July to 15.9%, following the rise in non-food 20.00% inflation rate . The non-food inflation rate driven by housing, 10.00% water, electricity, gas and other fuels stood at 24% compared to 0.00% 23.1% recorded in July this year. 8 20 30 11 21 5 18 28 9 23 6 16 29 10 20 3 15 25 7 19 29 10 This accounted for the 0.67% rise in value of the Dollar, leading EURGHS USDGHS GBPGHS to a year-to-date appreciation rate of 47.87% on the inter-bank Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept. Fig 3: YTD performance of Pound, Dollar & Euro versus the Cedi market.

Pound records mixed position amid Scotland’s referendum Euro versus Cedi

The Pound advanced against a basket of currencies on the The Euro strengthened in value on the international market after a

international market after business leaders added weight to the report from the Euro-area indicated that industrial production in

“NO” campaign of Scotland’s independence. However, Sterling is the region rose more than forecasted. This shored up the predicted to remain vulnerable ahead of the September 18th possibility of a growth in this quarter. referendum. However, this did not favor the Euro on the Ghanaian currency Market expectations for the Pound remain more favourable and it market last week. Thus, the Euro lost as much as 1.05% of its value is expected to maintain upside support from opinion polls that on the inter-bank market after trading at GH¢4.1269 last indicate a likely rejection for the independence of Scotland. Thursday. This represented an annual return of 38.20% compared to the 39.66% recorded a fortnight ago. However, the Pound saw a downward revision in its value on Ghana’s currency market as it traded between GH¢5.1569 and GH¢5.1624 to settle at an annual yield of 44.42% from previous 46.22%.

Alice Osei Okrah (Head) Isaac Kwasi Mensah (Analyst) Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

NB: The data in this report is Thursday on Thursday (w-o-w)