Using Expert-Elicitation to Deliver Biodiversity Monitoring Priorities On
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bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.18.456866; this version posted August 18, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY 4.0 International license. 1 Using expert-elicitation to deliver biodiversity monitoring 2 priorities on a Mediterranean island 3 4 Authors 5 J. Peyton1*, M. Hadjistylli2, I. Tziortzis3., E. Erotokritou4, M. Demetriou5, Y. Samuel-Rhoads5, V. 6 Anastasi6,7, G. Fyttis5,8, L. Hadjioannou9,10, C. Ieronymidou7, N. Kassinis11, P. Kleitou12,13, D. Kletou12, 14, 7 A. Mandoulaki15, N. Michailidis16, A. Papatheodoulou8, G. Payiattas16, D. Sparrow17, R. Sparrow17, K. 8 Turvey1, E. Tzirkalli18,19, A.I. Varnava15, and O.L. Pescott1 9 10 Affiliations 11 1 UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom. 12 2 Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, 13 Lefkosia, Cyprus. 14 3 Water Development Department, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and 15 Environment, Lefkosia, Cyprus. 16 4 Department of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment 17 Lefkosia, Cyprus. 18 5 Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Lefkosia, Cyprus. 19 6 Terra Cypria - The Cyprus Conservation Foundation, Lefkosia, Cyprus. 20 8 I.A.C.O. Environmental & Water Consultants, Lefkosia, Cyprus. 21 9 Enalia Physis Environmental Research Centre, Lefkosia, Cyprus. 22 10 CMMI – Cyprus Marine and Maritime Institute, Larnaka Cyprus. 23 11 Game and Fauna Service, Ministry of Interior, Lefkosia, Cyprus. 1 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.18.456866; this version posted August 18, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY 4.0 International license. 24 12 Marine & Environmental Research (MER) Lab, Lemesos, Cyprus. 25 13 School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, United 26 Kingdom. 27 14 Frederick University, Department of Maritime Transport and Commerce, Lemesos, Cyprus. 28 15 Department of Agricultural Sciences, Biotechnology and Food Science, Cyprus University of 29 Technology, Cyprus. 30 16 Department of Fisheries and Marine Research, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development 31 and Environment, Lefkosia, Cyprus. 32 17 Cyprus Dragonfly Study Group, Pafos Cyprus. 33 18 School of Pure and Applied Sciences, Open University of Cyprus, Lefkosia, Cyprus. 34 19 Department of Biological Applications and Technology, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, 35 Greece. 36 37 *Corresponding author 38 Email: [email protected] 39 40 Author contributions 41 JP/MH: Conceptualization. JP/OP: Methodology, Data analysis, Writing- Original draft preparation. 42 All authors: Reviewing and Editing and participation in expert-elicitation process. 43 44 2 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.18.456866; this version posted August 18, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY 4.0 International license. 45 Abstract 46 Biodiversity monitoring plays an essential role in tracking changes in ecosystems, species 47 distributions and abundances across the globe. Data collected through both structured and 48 unstructured biodiversity recording can inform conservation measures designed to reduce, prevent, 49 and reverse declines in valued biodiversity of many types. However, resources for biodiversity 50 monitoring are limited, it is therefore important that funding bodies prioritise actions relative to the 51 requirements in any given region. We addressed this prioritisation requirement through a three- 52 stage process of expert-elicitation, resulting in a prioritised list of twenty biodiversity monitoring 53 needs for Cyprus. Equal priority was assigned to the twenty monitoring needs within three 54 categories: a top nine, a middle five, and a bottom six. The most highly prioritised biodiversity 55 monitoring needs were those related to the development of robust methodologies, and those 56 ensuring a geographic spread of sufficiently skilled and informed contributors. We suggest ways that 57 the results of our expert-elicitation process could be used to support current and future biodiversity 58 monitoring in Cyprus. 59 60 Keywords 61 Conservation; funding; decision-makers; participation; stakeholder. 62 63 Introduction 64 The earth’s climate and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates, with species and ecosystems 65 increasingly threatened by multiple, often interacting, anthropogenic pressures (1). Five main 66 threats to biodiversity were identified by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on 67 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES): changes in land and sea use; direct exploitation of 68 organisms; climate change; pollution; and, invasive alien species (IAS) (1). 3 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.18.456866; this version posted August 18, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY 4.0 International license. 69 The Mediterranean basin is one of the 34 global biodiversity hotspots, including a large number of 70 endemic species where, due to increased anthropogenic pressures, there is an urgent need for 71 species and habitats conservation (2). Mediterranean-climate areas are predicted to be likely to 72 experience the highest levels of biodiversity change by 2100, due to pressures such as changes in 73 land use (e.g. agriculture), climate change, and the introduction of IAS (3). The most conspicuous 74 threats that affect the greatest number of taxonomic groups in the Mediterranean are habitat loss 75 and degradation, which are considered the primary impacts on diversity, followed by exploitation, 76 pollution, climate change, eutrophication and species invasions (4). Increased tourism and 77 urbanisation in this region also adversely affect biodiversity through habitat loss, disturbance, use of 78 pesticides and herbicides and increased pollution (5-7). Over-exploitation of natural resources is 79 another example of the effects of anthropogenic pressure on species in the Mediterranean including 80 fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea, which are at risk of over-exploitation, with a pressing need for 81 assessments of stock numbers (8). 82 To attempt to halt and, where possible, reverse species population declines and habitat degradation, 83 policy-makers need to use scientifically robust biodiversity data to understand the current situation 84 (9, 10). Monitoring is therefore needed to provide evidence on biodiversity status and trends (11). 85 Hochkirch, Samways (12) suggest an eight-point strategy for reducing gaps in such biodiversity data, 86 of which the most relevant at the local level are: increasing explorative field surveys; increasing 87 monitoring of less well-studied taxa; building capacity in areas where there is high species-richness 88 or levels of endemism; and the use of global online data repositories such as the Global Biodiversity 89 Information Facility (GBIF; https://www.gbif.org/) for hosting high quality, open data. Open data can 90 be an important mechanism enabling the effective use of biological monitoring data (13). The 91 increasing use of technologies for biological recording has resulted in many millions of records being 92 made freely available through global platforms such as GBIF. However, open data repositories may 93 also contain important biases in the records uploaded (12, 14). 4 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.18.456866; this version posted August 18, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY 4.0 International license. 94 Information on species distributions and identification (15) is essential for supporting conservation 95 (16), but funding and support for taxonomic training may be limited (17) with numbers of 96 taxonomists decreasing globally (18, 19). Technological methods are being increasingly used to fill 97 knowledge gaps, as they may assist with the surveying of large or difficult to reach areas more 98 rapidly and cheaply than on-the-ground surveys, e.g. through remote sensing (20), the use of habitat 99 suitability maps (2), and environmental DNA (21). Initiatives such as the Distributed European School 100 of Taxonomy, which offers education and training opportunities (https://cetaf.org/dest/about- 101 dest/), are another mechanism for bridging these gaps; however, limited support for both taxonomic 102 training and the availability of employment still present challenges for conservation (22, 23). Indeed, 103 the “provision of funding mechanisms” was another strategy highlighted by Hochkirch, Samways 104 (12) as important for increasing the availability of biodiversity data. 105 Reduced governmental funding for the collection and curation of records within statutory 106 organisations in the UK has led to a diversification in mechanisms of