Cyberspace Weaponisation: Modelling Cyber-Effects and Their Impacts on Mission Success, Human Factors and Kinetic Outcomes in the Tactical Land Combat Environment
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Cyberspace Weaponisation: Modelling Cyber-Effects and their Impacts on Mission Success, Human Factors and Kinetic Outcomes in the Tactical Land Combat Environment. Lieutenant Colonel David Ormrod. Cyberspace Weaponisation: Modelling Cyber- Effects and their Impacts on Mission Success, Human Factors and Kinetic Outcomes in the Tactical Land Combat Environment Lieutenant Colonel David Ormrod A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Computer Science) ACSCAR1885 Australian Centre for Cyber-Security School of Engineering and Information Technology University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra Supervisor: Dr Benjamin Turnbull (UNSW) Co-Supervisor: Dr Fred Bowden (DSTG) and Prof Jill Slay (UNSW) Submitted 17 March 2017, Modified 29 August 2017 Cyberspace Weaponisation: Modelling Cyber-Effects and their Impacts on Mission Success, Human Factors and Kinetic Outcomes in the Tactical Land Combat Environment. Lieutenant Colonel David Ormrod. THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Surname or Family name: ORMROD First name: DAVID Other name/s: GEORGE ALEXANDER Abbreviation for degree as given in the University calendar: ACSCAR1885 School: ENGINEERING AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Faculty: AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE ACADEMY Title: CYBERSPACE WEAPONISATION: MODELLING CYBER-EFFECTS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON MISSION SUCCESS, HUMAN FACTORS AND KINETIC OUTCOMES IN THE TACTICAL LAND COMBAT ENVIRONMENT. Abstract 350 words maximum: (PLEASE TYPE) Modern military forces utilise networked command and control systems to maintain situational awareness and support decision making. However, digital command and control networks are a highly desirable target and vulnerable to cyber-attack. This thesis addresses the research question: How can cyber-effects in the tactical land combat environment be modelled and measured in terms of mission success, human factors and kinetic outcomes? This research question is answered through an exploratory analysis of literature, doctrine, interviews with military decision makers and the development of multiple contributions to knowledge. Mixed methods triangulate qualitative and quantitative data, using design science research, grounded theory and Q methodology, together with agent-based modelling methods. The combination of approaches elicits different perspectives on the ‘system-of-systems’ problem space. This thesis demonstrates a relationship between cyber-effects, mission success, human factors and kinetic outcomes through the command and control of combat forces by decision makers. Compromising situational awareness of decision makers has a potentially significant impact on mission success. Kinetic outcomes may also be impacted. When a cyber-attack, technology domain, information target, system vulnerability and combat capability converge, it is possible that a cyber-effect can contribute to significant casualties. Human factors form a critical link between the physical and virtual domains, through decision makers. A decision maker can dynamically respond to the environment, providing a degree of mission resilience, if they can detect a change in the environment and respond. Agent personalities support human factor exploration in a simulated environment. This thesis contributes to knowledge through a cyber conceptual framework, a methodology to guide cyber-kinetic research, the development of agent personalities through grounded theory, a semantic model, cyber-effect measures as they relate to mission and kinetic outcomes, and a simulation proof of concept to demonstrate the interaction between cyber-effects, human factors, mission success and kinetic outcomes. The findings of this thesis are significant for military decision makers and researchers. Increased mission resilience in the tactical land combat environment can be achieved through cyber-defence capabilities, robust doctrine, a clear cyber-lexicon and training against a capable cyber-adversary. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). ………………………………………………Signature ……………………………Witness Signature ……….……………… Date The University recognises that there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years must be made in writing. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research. FOR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award: 2 Cyberspace Weaponisation: Modelling Cyber-Effects and their Impacts on Mission Success, Human Factors and Kinetic Outcomes in the Tactical Land Combat Environment. Lieutenant Colonel David Ormrod. Originality Statement ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed …………………………………………….............. Date ……………………………………………........... Authenticity Statement ‘I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis. No emendation of content has occurred and if there are any minor variations in formatting, they are the result of the conversion to digital format.’ Signed ……………………………………………........................... Date ……………………………………………........................... 3 Cyberspace Weaponisation: Modelling Cyber-Effects and their Impacts on Mission Success, Human Factors and Kinetic Outcomes in the Tactical Land Combat Environment. Lieutenant Colonel David Ormrod. Table of Contents Indemnity statement and releaseability of this document .......................................................... 6 Ethics clearance ......................................................................................................................... 7 Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... 9 List of Figures .......................................................................................................................... 10 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... 14 Acronyms ................................................................................................................................. 15 Related research by the author utilised within this thesis ........................................................ 19 1. Chapter One – Introduction ............................................................................................. 22 1.1 Motivation and Rationale .......................................................................................... 22 1.2 The Problem .............................................................................................................. 25 1.3 Purpose of the Thesis ................................................................................................ 28 1.4 Thesis Structure ......................................................................................................... 30 1.5 Contributions to Knowledge ..................................................................................... 31 1.6 Chapter One - Conclusion ......................................................................................... 33 2. Chapter Two - Literature Review .................................................................................... 35 2.0 Chapter Two Introduction ......................................................................................... 35 2.1 The Digitisation of Tactical Land Combat ................................................................ 36 2.2 Military Cyber-Doctrine ............................................................................................ 51 2.3 Proposed Cyber-Conceptual Framework .................................................................. 63 2.4 Cyber-Attack Impact ................................................................................................. 76 2.5 Chapter Two Summary ............................................................................................