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Jurnal Sentris KSMPMI Vol. 1 - 2019 Kelompok Studi Mahasiswa Pengkaji Masalah Internasional 149 Jurnal Sentris KSMPMI Vol. 1 - 2019 The Rise of Populism Wave in Visegrad Group Countries and How It Prevails: A Socio-Economic Perspective Rufaida Nurul Vicri Undergraduate Student of International Relations Department at Universitas Katolik Parahyangan [email protected] Abstract Penulisan makalah penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menilik dan mengkaji adanya tendensi politik negara-negara Visegrad yang telah jatuh pada gelombang populisme. Grup Visegrad (V4) merupakan grup aliansi antara empat negara di kawasan Eropa Timur dan Tengah (ETT), yakni: Republik Ceko, Slowakia, Hongaria, dan Polandia. Penelitian ini akan menggunakan pendekatan-pendekatan sosial-ekonomi untuk mengkaji latar belakang munculnya gerakan populisme di kawasan tersebut. Makalah ini akan berusaha untuk menjawab tentang bagaimana latar belakang kemunculan gerakan politik populisme dalam negara-negara Visegrad? Untuk menjawab pertanyaan penelitian di atas, analisis ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan pendekatan Materialisme Historis dan Determinisme Ekonomi Marx serta Tesis Ekonomi Downsian. Keywords: populism, Visegrad Group, socio-economic, historical materialism, economic deteminism Introduction The phenomenon of rising populism in regions such as East-Central Europe has become one of the most alarming international political issues of this era. Liberalism is increasingly challenged by the adoption of populist-oriented rhetoric and political actions as seen from the case in all four Visegrad countries. With the existence of complex social, economic, and geopolitical issues such as the continuous influx of both legal and illegal immigrants from conflict-prone neighboring countries, it is easy for populism to thrive and survive. To be more specific, this paper uses Visegrad group countries case to serve as an example of how populism has become ‘the trend’ in East-Central Europe region and why. ISSN 0216-5031 Copyright © 2019 Universitas Katolik Parahyangan Kelompok Studi Mahasiswa Pengkaji Masalah Internasional 150 Jurnal Sentris KSMPMI Vol. 1 - 2019 Visegrad group countries is an alliance group between four East-Central European states which include the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia which are also full members in both European Union as well as NATO; all joined in 2004.1 Despite being relatively new to the status of membership in the organizations, these new members have shown significant contributions as some very vocal members of the EU. Regardless, having to meet diverging issues on topics such as structural issues in the EU and immigration, the “euroskepticism” amongst the politicians and people alike has been on the move.2 But there is a more underlining factor behind the euroskepticism movements within the region: the wave of populism. Therefore, this paper aims to answer this fundamental question of populism in the Visegrad group countries: how did waves of populism in Visegrad countries become a major trend in the region and within each country? There are a wide variety of aspects and dimensions on how to perceive populism in Visegrad countries, and the socio-historical aspect of the issue has been widely cited as the most important. The socio-historical rationale has been built on the very nature of each Visegrad country history as ex-communist states, the remnants of the Cold War who turned to their Western counterparts, mainly in search for “American dream” of the people who want better opportunities and security after surviving years of torments caused by dictatorship and fascism.3 Nevertheless, this paper concentrates not so much on the ideological factor of Visegrad countries history but focusing instead on the socio-economic background behind Visegrad countries’ fall to populism after many years of struggle to dismantle ‘the iron grip’ for liberalism and democracy. The four Visegrad countries slowly turned their backs on liberal democracy they were yearning to have. On another note, we can see how the Czech Republic has obtained the “most euroskeptic country” status out of her three counterparts.4 The Czech Republic currently holds 1 “The Bratislava Declaration of the Prime Ministers of the Czech Republic, the Republic of Hungary, the Republic of Poland and the Slovak Republic on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Visegrad Group,” International Visegrad Fund, 15 February 2011, accessed 20 October 2018, http://www.visegradgroup.eu/2011/the-bratislava. 2 Krisztina Vida, EU Governance Trends – Dillemas and Recomandations for Visegrad Countries,‖ in Prospects of the Visegrad Cooperation, Identifying Converging and Diverging Factors, ed. Gábor Túry (Budapest: Institute of World Economics, 2015), 9-31. 3 Martin Bútora, "Nightmares from the Past, Dreams of the Future," Journal of Democracy 18, no. 4 (10, 2007): 48, accessed 20 October 2018, https://search.proquest.com/docview/195550473?accountid=31495. 4 Mihai Huszarik, "Important Changes in Central Europe. the Evolution of Visegrad Countries," Eurolimes 20, (Autumn, 2015): 237, accessed 20 October 2018, https://search.proquest.com/docview/1794151799?accountid=31495.237. ISSN 0216-5031 Copyright © 2019 Universitas Katolik Parahyangan Kelompok Studi Mahasiswa Pengkaji Masalah Internasional 151 Jurnal Sentris KSMPMI Vol. 1 - 2019 the second lowest attendance at the elections for the European Parliament. The euroscepticism in the country was especially apparent during the economic crisis, when the economy of the Czech Republic suffered big losses.5 Furthermore, albeit all four Visegrad countries have shown good performance on their overall economy,6 this economic growth doesn’t suffice in justifying the similar positive increase on the topics such as welfare and standard of living. The decline in consumption and unequal distribution of wealth are some of the most prevalent issues.7 The author believes that these growing economic issues, albeit not at its worst, had become major concerns by the people of each Visegrad country while the political elites exploited their fears and furies to gain mass support, and subsequently: political power. It is also important to note that the swell of populism waves surge upwards around the year 2008 to 2011, coincided with the all-time high fiscal crisis of the 21st century.8 Determining the complex background of proliferation on populism in a region is a difficult attempt. Therefore, this paper seeks to simplify the analysis by focusing on the socio- economic aspects of populism in Visegrad countries. To do that, this paper uses concepts and theories to frame the analysis. The author believes that Marxian Historical Materialism and Economic Determinism can serve as an ‘umbrella’ to see why economic aspects behind the historical analysis are important. The author also uses Economic Thesis of Populism, initially developed from rational-choice theory introduced by Anthony Downs in 1957. This paper will be separated in a sequence starting from the theoretical framework used for analysis. Next, the paper will be divided into two body chapters that include explanations on current populism trends and issues facing all four Visegrad countries. The second one will be dealing with an analysis on the socio-economic dimension of populism in Visegrad countries, conceptualized by theoretical frameworks mentioned earlier. Theoretical Framework: A Socioeconomic Approach a. Marxian Historical Materialism and Economic Determinism 5 Ibid. 6 Krisztina Vida, Past, Present and Future Macroeconomic Trends of the Visegrad Countries: Heading towards more Convergence?,‖ in Prospects of the Visegrad Cooperation, Identifying Converging and Diverging Factors, ed. Gábor Túry (Budapest: Institute of World Economics, 2015), 123. 7 Simon Tilford, “All is not well in the Visegrad economies,” Centre for European Reform Issue 117, 29 November 2017, accessed 20 October 2018, https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/bulletin-article/2017/all-not-well- visegrad-economies. 8 David Molloy, “What is populism, and what does the term actually mean?,” BBC News, 6 March 2018, accessed 20 October 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-43301423. ISSN 0216-5031 Copyright © 2019 Universitas Katolik Parahyangan Kelompok Studi Mahasiswa Pengkaji Masalah Internasional 152 Jurnal Sentris KSMPMI Vol. 1 - 2019 Marxian Economy theory in this paper will serve as an ‘umbrella’ to conduct socio- economic analysis on populism. Marxism is a philosophy of social existence, called historical materialism which was founded by Karl Marx (1818–1883) and Friedrich Engels (1820–1895). Largely differ from its main counterpart, the Hegelian Idealism, historical materialism doesn’t corroborate an explanation that emphasizes ideas as a leading cause of events in history. On the contrary, Marx and Engels developed the conception of “historical materialism” to answer questions regarding social existence. Thus, Marx and Engels believed that consciousness was the product of matter rather than its origin. In a socio-economic perspective with correlation to political spectrum and ideas, Marxist historical materialism posits that social classes and the relationship between them, along with the political structures and ways of thinking in society, can be inferred to be founded on and reflect contemporary economic activity.9 Next, another popular concept from Marxism Economic in a historiographic study of social existence is an economic determinism. Marx's conception of economic determinism has a number of implications for what is generally understood
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