© 2021 The Faculty of Social Sciences Universitysjps.fsvucm.sk of Ss. Cyril I ISSN and 1335-9096 Methodius, (online)Trnava. DOI: https://doi.org/10.34135/sjps.210102
HEADING TOWARDS COLLAPSE? ASSESSMENT OF THE SLOVAK PARTY SYSTEM AFTER THE 2020 GENERAL ELECTIONS1
Alexandra Smolecová2, Daniel Šárovec3
Abstract This article aims to analyse changes of the Slovak party system from 1992 to the last parliamentary elections of 2020. These elections were the eighth elections in the history of independent Slovakia. There are discussions about stability or instability of individual development stages of the party system. In the article, Attention is paid to changes in the distribution of forces within the development of the party system. In political science, various methods are used to measure the party system’s dynamics to determine the intensity of changes and the trends arising from them. This analysis is based on election results in each electoral cycle (period), which are being compared. Next part of the analysis is focused on the selected comparative indicators: Index of the Effective Number of Parties and Aggregation Index. These indices are chosen based on the criteria of classification of party systems. The results presented in the final part of the paper prove that several significant milestones in development of party system could be identified, as confirmed by the 2020 general elections – a major breakthrough in development trends.
KEY WORDS: Slovakia, Party system, Slovak party system, Political party, Party system change, Elections, Slovak parliamentary election.
INTRODUCTION
The 2020 parliamentary elections to the National Council of the Slovak Republic (hereinafter referred to as “parliamentary elections”) were highly awaited by whole country. They completed the another stage of the modern development of Slovakia, and at the same time, they were held in atmosphere of protests against the social and political events (for example, the1 This murder study was of supported a journalist by the and Charles his fiancée, University as Research well as Programme the rise of "Progres" the far rightQ18 – Social Sciences: From Multidisciplinarity to Interdisciplinarity. 2 E-mail: [email protected]. 3 Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Pekařská 16, 158 00 Prague, Czech Republic.
Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Pekařská 16, 158 00 Prague, Czech Republic. E-mail: [email protected]. ORCID 0000-0003-2491-538X.
Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 27 and the subsequent division of society, and demonstrations against some corruption cases). To some extent, these elections could be perceived as extremely important opportunity for the Slovak society, which voiced its opinion on the direction desired after the above turbulent social events. The aim of this study is to focus on the trends of the dynamics of the elections,Slovak party referred system to as from the 1992founding to 2020. elections, From or a an historical “informal point referendum” of view, onthe the 1990 direction Slovak of parliamentary the transition electionprocess. Probably are perceived the biggest as the ideological first free dispute took place here between Public Against Violence (Verejnosť proti násiliu) and Communist Party of Czechoslovakia/Slovakia (Komunistická strana Československa/Slovenska). These elections introduced a 3 per cent threshold, and the subsequent elections in 1992 had risen this threshold to 5% altogether with a change in formula of seats allocation (from Hare to transformedHagenbach-Bischoff into the quota, National see Šedo,Council 2008: of the36). Slovak Republic. Therefore, After the split of the federation in 1993, the Slovak National Council the analysis identified parliamentary election held in 1992 as the first elections.The main The yeardimension 2020 thenunder finalises review the is research comprised period, by asparliamentary in 2020 last parliamentary elections were held (comp. with Linek, Gyárfášová, 2020). elections. The analysis draws on a systematic overview covering the current stateelections, of knowledge. being the first-order The 2020 elections elections (FOE), are withconsidered an emphasis rather on attractive the 2020 system development the current “party hegemon” researchthe development topic in inthis a completelyregard. They different could confirm direction. the “The continuity results showedof the party that - SMER-SD party, or reverse” the leading force on the political scene will be another party – OLANO. However, some authors defined the 2016 elections as those fundamental 2020and ground-breaking elections, the term (Charvát, crucial electionsJust, 2018), a certain breakthrough and a Thechange article, were therefore, also expected aims fromto answer the 2020 the elections.following In research the context questions: of the “What are the development trends of the Slovak (Gyárfášová, party system 2020) based even on appeared. selected comparative indicators in 1992-2020?“ and “What factors caused the 2020 parliamentary elections were distinctive “ characteristics of the Slovak party system from the independent beginnings to theTherefore, present. the first part provides a basic overview of the main
28 Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 which derives from the use of selected comparative indicators for research intoThe the methodologicaldevelopment of chapterparty systems. aims to define the analytical framework, moreThe detail analytical with partthe most focuses current on defining phenomenon the main of 2020 development parliamentary trends elections.of the party system from 1992 to 2020. The concluding part then deals in
1 KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SLOVAK PARTY SYSTEM
Research devoted to political parties and partisanship in Central Europe liestopic in can the be focus explored of many from authors many (e.g. aspects Szczerbiak, and development Hanley,4 2006; tendencies Bakke, Sitter,of the 2015;Slovak Deegan-Krause, party system and Haughton, Slovak politics 2015 are or Englermore generally 2020) . Thisanalysed is significant by many authors (e.g. Gyárfášová, Mesežnikov, 2004; Kopeček, 2006; Mesežnikov, 2013; Stískala, 2014; Štefančík, Nemcová, 2015 or Naxera, Krčál 2017). A comparison of Slovakia and the Czech Republic are also not uncommon (e.g. manyDeegan-Krause, authors not 2006; only Voda, from Pink,Central 2015; Europe. Žúborová, 2015 or Frič, Gyárfášová, 2019). It turns out that Slovak politics is a constant subject of research by Slovakia. withAfter autocratic 1989,5 there characteristics was a gradual and an renewal anti-coalition of the pluralist formed againstparty system him was in After 1992, the conflict line between Vladimír Mečiar’s politics “ ” sharping. Therefore, experts could observe a higher degree of polarization into societyexpert andworks politics, with awhich counter-position culminated in called 1994. “ A new term of Mečiarism” (see Fish, was coined to characterise the Mečiar´s politics and was introduced also anti-Mečiarism 1999; Baer, 2001 and Kopeček, 2006, p. 462-468). However, there are also opinions that the suffix “-ism”“It is shouldnot clear not why be usedthe evidence in this way.of such Stanislav policies Kirschbaum make up an (2002, “ism“, especiallyp. 138) disputes as there about is neither this ina fundamental his response text to Kierannor a series Williams’ of speeches approach by Vladimír (2000): Mečiar, the longest
For a more detailed analysis of the development of party systems in Central Europe, see, e.g., 4 the case of the Czech Republic (Šárovec, 2019) or Poland (Kosowska-Gąstoł, Sobolewska- Myślik,5 2019). For a theoretical insight see, e.g., Šárovec (2020). Cleavages within the Slovak party system see in Leška (2013), Bardovič (2016, pp. 104-108) or Just (2019, pp. 78-79). Aspects of government formation see in Just (2018; 2019).
Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 29 serving prime minister of post-communist Slovakia, that would allow to speak of an ideology linked to him. “
The 1998 elections with Mečiar defeated had caused an erosion of this conflict line, leading to the transition to moderate pluralism. It is comparable with hypothesized relationships among issue divides in sixteen post- communist countries during the 1990s. Slovakia is marked as pro-NATION vs. anti-NATION & anti-ACCOUNTABILITY vs. pro-ACCOUNTABILITY within issue divides, as defined by Deegan-Krause. Crosscutting issue divides were pro-church/pro-marketThis path was evident vs. anti-church/anti-marketeven after the 2002 elections, (Deegan-Krause, followed 2006,by a p. 234). governmentcomplete alternation was replaced of the by a governing coalition of coalition centre-right after parties the 2006 with elections. the then After 2010, the ruling coalition completely changed again,The early the SMER-SDelections 6 Primethen formed Minister a “ one-colour Iveta Radičová,” a leader of SDKÚ-DS. held in 2012 were won by SMER-SD due to 44.4% of the votes cast. The party government. It is, therefore, possible to speak aof “ politicalan era of or multipartism party earthquake with” a dominant party (see Kopeček, 2006 and Leška, 2013). The 2016 elections were then identified by many authors as (Charvát, Just, 2018 or Kerekeš, Pink, Šedo, 2019), because a number of new changes occured in the party competition. politicalSo far, the map most of Slovakia. recent 2020 elections can be characterized as another important milestone. Victory of OĽaNO party has once again redrawn the system has permanently been oscillating on the border between limited and In essence, since the split of the federation in 1993, the Slovak party system is considered unstable and fragmented, due to such phenomena extreme pluralism (Cabada, Hloušek, Jurek, 2013, p. 88). The Slovak party
2018,as a weak p. 11). institutionalization of some stakeholders, their frequent party fluctuation and high level of personification of politics (Hynčica, Šárovec, “more or lessHowever, stable ” this, “relatively development unstable needs” or “ to be related to the relatively” (see inconsistent terms, which characterize the Slovak party system as relatively significantly stable notCharvát, possible Just, to 2018, speak p. of 38-39 clear and lasting Filipec, stability 2019, from p. 9). a Thiscomplex discussion point of reveals view. difficulty of defining a clear notion. However, undoubtedly it is most likely
6 Coalition of the following parties – SDKÚ-DS, SaS, Most-HÍD and KDH.
30 Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 2 DATA AND METHODS7
This study focused on the development dynamics of the Slovak party system, and compares in more detail the individual elections to the National 8 to 2020. A comparative analysis is based on a comparison of election results and seats distribution of individualCouncil of politicalthe Slovak parties Republic in the from Parliament. 1992 eachData elections. for the comparisonThe analysis are works from withthe electronic the dimension archive of of comparison the Statistical of individualOffice of the parliamentary Slovak Republic entities, (see whose Volby.statistics.sk, election results 2020), are compared available for in number of entities successfully competing in the parliamentary elections the research period. On this basis, the authors consequently compare the during 1992-2020. Original calculations of comparative indicators are used for the analysis of the dynamics of the party system development. The Index of the Effective Number of Parties and the Aggregation Index were chosen as indexes representingSuch oriented the studyresearch of theoutputs party already system existfragmentation within the (Lebeda, existing 2019,state p. 576). contextof knowledge of the topic (see Brunclík,studied here 2014 can or be Novotný, considered Šárovec, so complex 2018). and The broad text intentionally omits, for example, the Pedersen Volatility Index, which in the that it can be devoted to a separate piece of study. (see Gyárfášová, Bahna, Slosiarik, 2017; Charvát, Just, 2018 or Linek, Gyárfášová, 2020). The Index of the Effective Number of Parties was designed by Markku Laakso and Rein Taagepera (1979). The index measures the size of the party Thesystem index according can be calculatedto how many in twopolitical ways: parties at the fitelectoral into it, judgedand parliamentary on the basis level.of their size, which reflects their electoral strength within the party system.
78 this Chapters body was 2 and transformed 3 partly reflect to the basic National findings Council, by Smolecová and therefore (2019). these general elections are called In 1992 elections the general to the elections National were Council. held as election to the Slovak National Council, after 1993
Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 31 N represents the effective number of parties, n represents the total number of parties, pi is the percentage of seats (parliamentaryIn the formula level) for or calculating, the percentage of votes obtained (electoral level) for a given party i. The index is equal to 1 if there is only one party in the party system. same,The value then of the the effective index increases number ofwith these the parties increasing corresponds number toof theparties. actual If there is any number of parties of the same size, and their voting power is the situation. If two parties have 50% of the seats in parliament (they both won 50% of the votes in the elections), then the value of the Index of the Effective Number of Parties will be equal to 2 (Laakso, Taapegera, 1979, p. 4; Kubát, 1998, p. 236). This approach can be compared with the results of Marc van de Wardt’s research (2017), which focused on 696 elections in 79 countries powerbetween of 1945the strongest and 2011. party in parliament in relation to other parties within theThe system. Aggregation Index (Mayer, 1980) measures the position and voting
A S is the percentage of the seats of the strongest party in parliament, N is determinedIn this formula, by the total represents number the of resulting parties valuein parliament. of the Aggregation The higher Index, the index value, the more concentrated the party system. Relative stability of governments should be the result of this. The high value of aggregation means that there is a strong party in the system capable of forming a government – whether a coalition government or a one-party government. This should ensure the stability of the government (Kubát, 1998, p. 237; Lebeda, 2019, systemsp. 578-579). applicable An example to studies of the of usemeasuring of this formula the party is systems.research by Jin-Young Kwak and Kenneth Janda (2010) aimed to comparative indicators of party 3 CHANGES IN THE SLOVAK PARTY SYSTEM IN 1992-2020
The dynamics of the development of the Slovak party system can be captured by a direct comparison of the electoral gains of individual political comprehensively complements the overall analysis. The aim is to show how parties. The next part based on the defined comparative indicators then
32 Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 Slovak party system has changed over the last almost 30 years through the lens of selected approaches and what trends can be traced.
3.1 Individual political parties and movements
Firstly, the focus needs to be devoted to individual political actors. compared, while some of them won repeatedly. As Table 1 shows, there is no partyBetween that 1992 would and be 2020,permanently the electoral represented gains of in a the total Parliament of 23 entities throughout can be
“core parties” of the Slovak the period 1992-2020 (comp. Chavát, Just, 2018, p. 45). Jakub Charvát and PetrThis Just points, (2018, p.among 45) speak other in things,this context to the about fact that (repeated) electoral party system: SNS, SMER-SD, KDH, and SDKÚ-DS. At the same time, it can be noticed that the party system is able to generate newsuccess and for successful a party does political not ensure parties a future capable successful to reach institutionalization. mandates, even repeatedly.
SMERAs alreadyis the most mentioned successful above, party there in isthe not period entity under identified review that with would six be successful in terms of gaining seats after each election. In this respect, A total of six participations, with breaks, however, were recorded by the participations in a row, followed by HZDS with five participations in a row.
Tablefollowing 1: Gains entities of Parliamentary – KDH and SNS. Parties 1992-2020 (in %) 1992 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2012 2016 2020
HZDS - - - -
SV 37.26- 34.96 27.00- 19.50- 8.79- - - - - MKM 10.41------MK 7.42- 10.18 ------KDH 10.08 - 8.31 8.82 - -
DEÚS 8.89- - 8.25- - 8.52- - - - ZRS - 8.50 ------SNS 7.34 - - - 7.93 5.40 9.07 11.73 5.07 8.64
Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 33 SDK ------
SDĽ - 26.33 ------SMK 14.70- - 14.66 - - - - SOP - - 9.128.01 11.16- 11.68- - - - - SDKÚ-DS - - - - -
SMER-SD - - - 15.09 18.35 15.42 6.09 28.28 KSS - - - 13.46 29.14- 34.79- 44.41- - 18.29- ANO - - - 6.328.01 - - - - -
MOST------8.12 - HÍD SaS - - - - - 6.89 12.106.50
OĽaNO - - - - - 12.14- 5.88 11.02 6.22
SME ------8.55- 25.02 RODINA #SIEŤ ------6.62 8.24- ĽS Naše ------5.60 Slovensko ZA ĽUDÍ ------8.04- 7.97
Source: Volby.statistics.sk, 2020 5.77 elections , then Figure 1 makes it clear that the number of parties standing If the comparison9 focuses on the dimension of individual parliamentary in the elections oscillated around 21 (with the average value of 21.56). The smallest number of entities standing in the elections was 17, while the thehighest highest was 8. 26. The number of successful parties was most often around 6 (the average value is 6.33), when the lowest number of entities was 5, and
9 In the 1994 elections, Spoločná voľba (SV) stood in the elections, coalition parties: Strana demokratickej ľavice, Sociálnodemokratická strana Slovenska, Strana zelených na Slovensku, Hnutie poľnohospodárov Slovenskej republiky. In the 1998 elections, the SDK stood in the elections, which was considered a new party. It was first formed as a coalition of five parties February(KDH, DÚ, 2020 SDSS, in DSfavor and of SaS SZS), (see then Volby.statistics.sk, it transformed 2020). into a political party. The number of parties standing in the elections in 2020 does not include Hlas Pravice, which resigned on 20
34 Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 Figure 1: The Number of Parties Standing in the Elections vs. the Number of Those Elected in the 1992-2020 Parliamentary Elections
Source: Original elaboration based on Volby.statistics.sk, 2020
The comparison also shows that after the 2010 elections, the number of entities standing in the elections was not under 23, but the number of elections,elected entities the number reached of the parties value standingof 8 only inin the2016. elections Otherwise, increased since 2006by 1 this number has remained at the value of 6. Although in the last 2020 to 24 when compared to the 2016 elections, the number of elected parties almostdecreased always by 2 over from time, 8 to 6.the number of elected entities remained more or It turned out that although the number of candidate parties changed relationship between the number of candidate and successful parties. less the same. No major fluctuations are presented here, nor any a long-term 3.2 Index of the Effective Number of Parties
Data and Methods, this indexDevelopment can be applied of Index in twoof the variants: Effective at Number the parliamentary of Parties optics and iselectoral crucial to be explained at first. As already outlined in Part 2 time at both levels. level. Figure 2 shows that the development has changed significantly over
Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 35 Figure 2: Effective Number of Parties in the Elections to the National Council of the Slovak Republic 1992-2020
Source: Own elaboration according to Volby.statistics.sk, 2020
Looking at the development of the absolute number of parties and the effective number of parties, it is possible to observe that even if the absolute number of parties is without significant fluctuations, the effective number of parties changes more significantly over time. This indicates a change of parties within the Parliament; a mutual electoral size and strength of parliamentary parties are changing. Figure 2 shows that the 1990s can be identified as a period free of any significant fluctuations. This was mainly dueA to fundamental the results of difference such entities is evident as HZDS, in as the a long-term 2002 elections, strong formation,when the but also SDĽ, KDH or SNS. gainseffective of other number parties of electoral that achieved and parliamentary representation parties in the fluctuated National upwards. Council. The reason for this change rested not only in the fall of HZDS, but also in the
In addition, in the 2002 elections, SMER-SD and SDKÚ-DS recorded double- digit results in their first participation. theIn Effective 2002, there Number was ofa significantElectoral and increase Parliamentary in electoral Parties instability, shows which such was measurable, for example, also by the volatility index. The Index of increase. The seats were won by a total of seven political groupings (SDKÚ-
36 Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 DS, SMER-SD, HZDS, KSS, SMK, KDH and ANO). On the other hand, mutual voting power and a relative size of parties were relatively small. partyIn gradually the next elections,began to grow. the absoluteFigure 1 notes number that of although parliamentary the number parties of dropped to six, and at the same time, the electoral strength of the SMER-SD parties elected was always six between 2006 and 2012, the proportions of decline.their power changed significantly. The 2006 elections showed an increase in the support for SMER-SD, but SNS also returned. HZDS recorded a certain apparent after the 2010 elections, but on the contrary, there was an increase In terms of the observable trend, a decrease in support for SDKÚ-DS was in the votes for SMER-SD. Parties MOST-HÍD and SaS entered the National Council for the first time. Following the 2012 elections, which were the powerearly elections, has been OĽaNO growing party steadily entered assince a new 2002, entity, received and SDKÚ-DS the maximum suffered a decline in support. In the elections, however, SMER-SD, whose electoral support so far. In 2012, the party won a total of 83 seats out of 150, which ofmeant the effective that it could number form of a parliamentary one-party government. parties in theIt accounted period under for 55 review. % of the seats in the Parliament. This moment is reflected in the smallest value
Another sharp increase occurred in the 2016 elections. In addition to the mutualnew parties powers - ĽSNS not andonly SME in the RODINA party system entering as athe whole, Parliament, but also the in the nationalist number SNS also returned to the Parliament. There was a further modification of it failed to repeat the overwhelming victory from the previous elections. The of parliamentary parties and their electoral power. Although SMER-SD won, parties being the second and third strongest groupings. The fragmentation strength of the opposition gradually increased, with SaS and OĽaNO-NOVA of the party system was also reflected in the conflicts between the parties. The 2020 elections confirmed the declining support for SMER-SD party, and, conversely, the rapid increase in the support for OĽaNO movement. chanceNeither to Sieť enter nor the MOST-HÍD Parliament. defended10 This generally their seats, observable the new developmentZA ĽUDÍ party of enjoyed their success. The PS/SPOLU coalition very closely missed its the chosen index can be empirically proven and confirmed.
10
See Chapter 4 below.
Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 37 3.3 The Aggregation Index
A complex research requires to capture the trend with another turnscomparative out that indicator. higher values If the indicate development a relatively of the lower Slovak number party of systemparties in is captured by the values of the Aggregation Index, then according to Figure 3 it boththe Parliament voter volatility with and,a dominant in particular, result the of one results political obtained party. when In 1992, examining it was theHZDS, effective in 2012 number it was of SMER-SD parties. party. The results generally correspond to
Figure 3: Aggregation Index in the Elections to the National Council of the Slovak Republic 1992-2020
Source: Original elaboration based on Volby.statistics.sk, 2020
In the 1990s, the value of the index gradually declined. The lowest value of the Aggregation Index from 2002 reflects the relatively high fragmentation of the party system, as none of the parties was significantly dominant. Between 2002 and 2006, there was an increase that mimics the growing importance of SMER-SD. The decline was evident in 2016, when other parties succeeded, and SMER-SD weakened.
38 Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 On the contrary, the 2020 elections are captured in the context of the therelatively calculation important of the role given of OĽaNO,index. and thus the value of the index is growing again. Once more, it is possible to prove the sketched development through 4 NEW TENDENCES AFTER THE 2020 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
The 2020 elections to the National Council of the Slovak Republic were held in connection with completely unprecedented previous events. A between the controversial people towards the state apparatus. specificProbably phenomenon the most was serious the rise event, of the which far righthappened and the shortly problematic before linkthe theelections, streets. one This was also theled to murder the resignation of journalist of the Ján Prime Kuciak Minister and Robert his fiancée Fico Martina Kušnírová in February 2018. Slovakia experienced mass protests in in MarchThere 2018,were voiceswho, however, claiming remained that the electionthe chairman campaign of SMER-SD was one (Filipec, of the 2019, p. 16). releasedmost escalated public inones the sinceSlovak 1990. society. This Already was also in the due pre-election to a number period, of other the criminal cases (see Sekerák, 2019, pp. 234–235), which were gradually for a long time then.11 decline of the SMER-SD party was noticeable, but it had already been visible
The tandem of Robert Fico as chairman of the SMER-SD party and Peter inPellegrini sharp contrast as Prime to the Minister hitherto and common SMER-SD practice election of a leaderclear leader, could who also was be confusing for many potential voters (see Hynčica, 2020). Above all, this was the chairman of the party. SMER-SD entered the elections as probably the most successful party in era of independent Slovakia. However, the party’s position was significantly influenced by the affairs of its leaders. pointOn to the the contrary, problems the of the OĽaNO then movementgoverning coalition. was a favourite This due party to political of the communicationelections. It was effectively the party set that up, was and able the to overall significantly concept and of constantly political
11
By analogy, it suggests itself to mention the situation of the ČSSD, when before the October elections to the Chamber of Deputies in 2017, the then leader and chairman Bohuslav Sobotka ended in June. In June 2017, the then statutory deputy chairman and Minister of electionthe Interior leader. Milan Chovanec was entrusted with the management of the party, and the then Minister of Foreign affairs and deputy chairman of the party Lubomír Zaorálek became the
Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 39 marketing of this political project. This is to some extent related to the very essence of the OĽaNO movement. The movement is sometimes referred to as a populist party, or possibly the business-firm party. OĽaNO, just as ANO (a party that no longer exists today), SaS and SME RODINA are analyzed by Juraj Marušiak in terms of entrepreneur parties (Marušiak, 2017). OĽaNO had only four members for a long time. In the autumn of 2019, it reached around 6% in the polls; however, before the elections, its support was already around 19%. This rise was gradual and was reflected by nearly all the pre- election polls. In addition to effective self-defining against the coalition, for example, a program called “Honestly, Courageously, For the People” was excessiveanother important populist elements. protest signal. However, some commentators (Havlická, 2020; Zelenka, 2020 or Kubátová, 2021) have highlighted the party’s supportThe far-rightmainly among entity young – ĽSNS segments party, supportedof the population. before For the many elections voters, by themore support than 10%, of this did party not escapewas the attention embodiment either. of Thisdissatisfaction, party garnered resistance voter
Tableand protest 2: Elections against to the the establishment National Council in general of the Slovak (Linek, Republic Gyárfášová, 2020 2020).
Number of votes Number of votes Number of seats (in %) (abs.)
38 OĽaNO 25.02 721 166 53 SMER-SD 18.29 527 172 SME RODINA 8.24 237 531 17 0 ĽSNS 7.97 229 660 17 SaS 13 PS/SPOLU 6.96 200 780 6.22 179 246 12 Source:ZA Volby.statistics.sk, ĽUDÍ 20205.77 166 325
And the election results? The success of the OĽaNO movement led by former businessman Igor Matovič was quite a crucial event. However, Igor Matovič entered politics in early 2010, as a candidate of the liberal entity called SaS. In the media during the 2020 elections and even after the elections, there appeared voices that Igor Matovič is similar in his political
40 Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 styleThis to thecenter-right Prime Minister liberal ofmovement, the Czech sometimesRepublic Andrej referred Babiš to (comp.,as populist, e.g., Šárovec, 2018). as “an honest anti-corruption movement aimed at defeating corrupt politicians achievedand their thepolitical highest parties election.” result in its history. OĽaNO characterizes itself The movement was able skilfully to take advantage of the growing negative (Obycajniludia.sk, 2020; comp. Sekerák, 2020) Prime Minister Robert Fico. sentimentsThe movement towards was the able SMER-SD to reach party out and to the the voterspersonality demanding of the long-timea change. Anti-corruption references, which were present throughout the entire
Slovak media reported on the victory of anti-corruption populism and the electoral campaign, were very strong. In connection with the elections, the defeatThe ofelection the liberals results (this pointed issue towas the elaborated (temporary?) in past end by of Mihálik,the dominant 2017; Gyárfášová, 2018; Hynčica, 2019; Engler, 2020 or Mesežnikov, 2020). which recorded the second worst result in its history and after 12 years inera power of the12 SMER-SD it headed party into (see,opposition. e.g., Karabová, At the same Filipec, time, 2018 a voter and Just, turnout 2019), at different, for example, from the elections to the European Parliament, where 65.8% was the highest in 14 years (Volby.statistics.sk, 2020). This is very
Slovakia has traditionally displayed an extremely low turnout (Gyárfášová, Henderson, 2018; comp. with europeanization of Slovak political parties in Leška, 2015 or Karabová, Filipec, 2018). of aIn new addition, political former formation. Prime13 Publicly, Minister this Peter situation Pellegrini was described announced as the his departurepeak of a split from in SMER the –party. SD party Some in Junetension 2020 was and expected indicated already the establishment before the
Fico, to resign already during the post-election period. 2020 elections. In addition, Pellegrini called on the party’s founder, Robert
12 period In 2006-2010 2018-2020 itthe was government the first of government Peter Pellegrini. of Robert The only Fico, exception in 2012-2016 in this period the second were government of Robert Fico, in 2016-2018 the third government of Robert Fico and in the the13 years 2010-2012, when Iveta Radičová was Prime Minister and SDKÚ-DS, SaS, KDH party. and MOST-HÍD participated in the government. HLAS political movement In the end, this step really did happen; he founded the HLAS – sociálna demokracia Here, a parallel can be found again with another new Czech entity, namely the of the former European Commissioner and MEP Pavel Telička, founded in 2019 (Šárovec, 2020, p. 78). Comp. with parties’ expert capacities (Jágr, 2020).
Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 41 entities. This hard-to-grasp movement focused on populist and social- SME RODINA placed third with some gap left behind the first two political conservative ideas (see Školkay, Žúborová, 2019) was able to improve its the2016 end election it failed result to turn and it enhanced into the election its number result of comparableseats by 3. to the election poll.Although The rise ĽSNS of the recorded far right a thusrelatively did not high happen support and before the Party the elections, recorded in a turnout comparable to the 2016 elections, when its turnout was one of the relatively big surprises (see, e.g., Filipec, 2017; Harris, 2019 or Vasiľková, Androvičová, 2019). Even so, the Party also improved its position and won a thetotal votes, of 17 narrowlyseats, i.e. alsomissed 3 more. its chance to enter the parliament. The liberal coalitionIn the needed end, the to earn PS/SPOLU a total of coalition, seven percent which of needed votes, but seven it only percent reached of
Some commentaries spoke of the loss of the liberal coalition or of the biggest 6.96 percent, which means it lacked 927 votes (Volby.statistics.sk, 2020). advantageousloser of the elections in some (e.g., cases. Kubátová, The result 2020). was surprising also because the It showed that standing in the elections in a coalition may not be coalition won the elections in Slovakia to the European Parliament in 2019 andThe the liberal current or presidentlibertarian Zuzana grouping Čaputová SaS and also the arose predominantly from Progresívne liberal Slovensko (PS), which was a member of the coalition with SPOLU. party ZA ĽUDÍ of former President Andrej Kiska recorded a similar turnout. These two entities suffered an outflow of their voters turned towards the winner of the elections – OĽaNO (Mesežnikov, 2020). For SaS, it was the worst electoral result since 2010; on the contrary, ZA ĽUDÍ party stood in general elections for the first time as a new party. Due to post-electoral negotiations, a coalition government was formed, consisting of OĽaNO, SME RODINA, SaS and ZA ĽUDÍ, chaired by Igor Matovič Theas Prime government Minister, coalition and with seeks Richard to rid Sulík, Slovakia Veronika of the Remišová “legacy” andleft byŠtefan the Holý as vice-chairs (Vlada.sk, 2020). SMER-SD and ĽSNS stay in opposition.
SMER-SD party after its rule. The onset of government and the first months of its operation took place in very non-standard conditions of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.
42 Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 CONCLUSION
The presented study has analysed dynamics of the development of the party system in Slovakia. Elections to the National Council of the Slovak was an important topic in the society. Popularity of the far right grew in Slovakia,Republic werebut the held connection at a time when of controversial the murder of persons a journalist towards and his the fiancée state apparatus was also revealed. The question to be answered was therefore not only how the elections would turn out, but what trend the development of the elections would show. The article focused on the dimension of individual electoral parties in the contextFrom of the each aspect elections of individualfrom 1992 topolitical 2020. The entities, Index ofit theturned Effective out thatNumber the of Parties and the Aggregation Index served as tool for further analysis. othernumber hand, of parties the number standing of the in theparties elections that enteredwas rather the fluctuatingParliament anddid notdid not fall below 23 in the last three elections (2012, 2016 and 2020). On the represented in the Parliament, their number returned to the highest value change significantly then. After the 2016 elections, when 8 entities were of 6the in partythe 2020 system. elections. Seen throughThe Index the of prism the Effective of the monitored Number of comparative Parties and the Aggregation Index then pointed to the clear swings in the development The 2020 elections to the National Council of the Slovak Republic represent anotherindicators, argument so far, the for 2020 the electionssupporters have of proveda rather to lower be of adegree significant of the change. party of Slovakia and spread a clear message that most of the Slovak society had system stability. The elections have significantly redrawn the political map with the pre-election polls, but not to such an overwhelming extent. After been calling for a change. OĽaNO’s victory was also expected in connection the election results and the consequent post-election developments, a more fundamentalmany years, the ideological government and wasa partial not formed personnel by SMER-SD change is party. likely Following to await this party.
This is the first time since the fall of communism in 1989, when a large Hungarian minority, making up 8.5% of Slovakia’s population, is not polls.represented For the in second Parliament. time in Increase a row, nonein the traditional support for moderate controversial conservative far-right forces represented by ĽSNS party was not confirmed against the election pro-European party - KDH did earn a single seat in the Parliament.
Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Volume 21, No. 1, 2021 43 in termsIn conclusion, of the change the resultsof the ruling of the coalition 2020 elections and the distribution point to a renewedof forces ofsignificant individual change actors. in Althoughthe dynamics the coalition of party-political government competition, led by the at Prime least its work, it is too early for a more comprehensive assessment. Minister Igor Matovič with a reputation of an unpredictable politician begun
It is necessary to point out the development t to April 2021, especially the role of Igor Matovič within the coronavirus crisis and his resignation from escalatethe Prime at Minister’sthe time of seat. the secretThere purchasewere made of thecouple Russian of changes vaccine within Sputnik the V other government positions. During the government crisis, which began to been appointed the Minister of Finance. The new Prime Minister is Eduard against coronavirus, a total of six ministers left the cabinet. Igor Matovič has A breakthrough in the development trend is a great challenge for further Heger (OĽaNO) from April 2021 (iROZHLAS.cz, 2021). research. It will either confirm a more general change in the distribution of forces in the Slovak party system, or it will classify the analyzed 2020 REFERENCESelections only as an extraordinary fluctuation.
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