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The Governance of Nepal's Flood Early Warning System

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THE GOVERNANCE OF NEPAL’S FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM OPPORTUNITIES UNDER FEDERALISM Chinaporn Meechaiya, Emily Wilkinson, Emma Lovell, Sarah Brown and Mirianna Budimir Working paper ABOUT THE AUTHORS Chinaporn Meechaiya works as Senior Project Coordinator/Hydrologist in Climate Resilience and SERVIR-Mekong programmes at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC). Chinaporn has experience in hydrology and urban design/urban planning and specialises in hydrology, early warning system, and flood risk management. She has worked on projects with consultancies in Thailand, Nepal, Cambodia, Hong Kong, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Netherlands. Emily Wilkinson is a Senior Research Fellow in the ODI Risk and Resilience Programme, leading the Financing 4 Resilience team. Her current research focuses on risk governance and financing, accountability mechanisms and measurement frameworks for resilient development. Emma Lovell is a Research Fellow in the ODI Risk and Resilience Programme, and leads the strategy on equity and social inclusion in multi-hazard contexts. Her research focuses on disaster risk management, climate change and building resilience for all. Before ODI, Emma worked in Bangkok, Thailand, for the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. Sarah Brown is Thematic Lead for Disaster Risk Reduction for Practical Action. Her work at Practical Action focuses on disaster risk, early warning, improving decision making under complexity, end-mile communication, gender and inclusion. She is a Co-Investigator on the NERC/DFID Landslip Project (research into practice on landslide early warning). She heads the Knowledge Broker (joint with Red Cross Climate Centre) for the NERC/DFID Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) Programme. Mirianna Budimir is a Senior Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor for Practical Action, focusing on the theme ‘Technology Builds Resilience’. Her work at Practical Action includes improving the science-practice interface on topics such as disasters, early warning services, end-mile communication, gender and international development. She is also a Knowledge Broker for the SHEAR Programme. Contents Acronyms 2 Executivesummary 3 1. Introduction 4 1.1Methodology 6 2. Governancereformsandtheevolution ofthefloodearlywarningsystem 10 2.1Evolutionofthefloodearlywarningsystem 12 2.2InstitutionalarrangementsforEWS 15 3. GovernanceoffloodEWS 18 3.1Riskknowledge 19 3.2Monitoringandwarning 21 3.3Disseminationandcommunication 25 3.4Responsecapability 29 3.5Takingforwardnewresponsibilities underthefederalsystem 32 4. Towardsamoreintegratedfloodearlywarningsystem 34 Casestudies 37 References 43 Acronyms ADPC AsianDisasterPreparednessCenter CDMC CommunityDisasterManagementCommittee CWC CentralWaterCommission DDMC DistrictDisasterManagementCommittee DEOC DistrictEmergencyOperationCentre DHM DepartmentofHydrologyandMeteorology DIPECHO EuropeanCommissionHumanitarianAidDepartment’s DisasterPreparednessProgramme DRRM DisasterRiskReductionandManagement EWS earlywarningsystem GLoFAS GlobalFloodAwarenessSystem ICIMOD InternationalCentreforIntegratedMountainDevelopment LDMC LocalDisasterManagementCommittee LEOC LocalEmergencyOperationsCentre MoEWRI MinistryofEnergy,WaterResourcesandIrrigation MoFAGA MinistryofFederalAffairsandGeneralAdministration MoFALD MinistryofFederalAffairsandLocalDevelopment MoHA MinistryofHomeAffairs MoIAL MinistryofInternalAffairsandLaw MoSTE MinistryofScience,TechnologyandtheEnvironment NCRS NepalRedCrossSociety NDRRMA NationalDisasterRiskReductionandManagementAuthority NEOC NationalEmergencyOperationsCentre NGO non-governmentalorganisation NOAA NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration PDMC ProvincialDisasterManagementCommittee PEOC ProvincialEmergencyOperationsCentre UNDRR UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction GOVERNANCE OF NEPAL’S FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 Executive summary Floodearlywarningsystems(EWS)areextremelycomplex, withmultiplelayersofcommunicationandrelationshipsbetween stakeholders,acrossdifferentscalesofgovernance.Withthe developmentofweatherandfloodforecastingmodels,Nepal’s EWShasadvancedsignificantlyinrecentyears,butwarnings canstillfailtoreachdownstreamcommunitiesinthelow-lying Taraiplains. Recentgovernancereformsdevolveconsiderableauthorityfor deliveringEWSservicestomunicipalgovernments.Thisshould resultinimprovedcommunicationofwarningsandenhanced floodresponsecapabilities.However,criticalchallengesand questionsremainaroundwhethermunicipalgovernments willhavethefundsandtechnicalcapacitytodothis. Thispaperlooksattheinstitutionalmechanismsforassessing, monitoring,communicatingandrespondingtofloodrisk informationandwarningsacrossthreeriverbasinsineastern andwesternNepal,andidentifiesopportunitiesforenhancing theseservicesunderthenewfederalstructure. Decentralisinggovernmentresponsibilitiesandresources couldbringhugebenefits,includinghigher-resolutionrisk maps,investmentinlocalmonitoringstations,agreaterfocus onresponseplanningandengagementwithcommunitiesand marginalisedgroups.Toensurethatthesebenefitsarerealised, community-basedandnon-governmentalorganisations(NGO) initiativeswillneedtobebetterintegratedwithinthenational system,andlocalagencieswillneedsubstantialtrainingand capacitydevelopmenttomeettheirnewresponsibilities. GOVERNANCE OF NEPAL’S FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM INTRODUCTION 4 1. INTRODUCTION image: AnEWSisdefinedbytheUnitedNationsOfficeforDisaster flood-prone chitwan RiskReduction(UNDRR)asanintegratedsystemofhazard province. monitoring,forecastingandprediction,disasterriskassessment, picture taken by: naresh andcommunication:‘Effective“end-to-end”and“people- newar/thomson centred”earlywarningsystemsmayincludefourinterrelated reuters foundation keyelements:(1)disasterriskknowledgebasedonthesystematic collectionofdataanddisasterriskassessments;(2)detection, monitoring,analysisandforecastingofthehazardsandpossible consequences;(3)disseminationandcommunication,byan officialsource,ofauthoritative,timely,accurateandactionable warningsandassociatedinformationonlikelihoodandimpact; and(4)preparednessatalllevelstorespondtothewarnings received.Thesefourinterrelatedcomponentsneedtobe coordinatedwithinandacrosssectorsandmultiplelevels GOVERNANCE OF NEPAL’S FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM INTRODUCTION 5 forthesystemtoworkeffectivelyandtoincludeafeedback mechanismforcontinuousimprovement.Failureinone componentoralackofcoordinationacrossthemcouldleadto thefailureofthewholesystem’(UNISDR,2017).AnEWScanalso becategorisedaccordingtothesourceofinformation–forecast- basedorreal-timebased.Theformercanhelpinmobilising resourcesbeforeandduringadisaster,whereasthelattertends tobemorereactive.Forexample,inNepalathree-dayforecast fromtheDepartmentofHydrologyandMeteorology(DHM) cantriggeractionbynationalandprovincialstakeholdersto anticipateandprepareforfloods,whereasinformationfrom localgaugereaderswithafour-tofive-hourleadtimecan enablecommunitiestoevacuatesafely. FloodEWShavetendedtofocusonmonitoringand communicatingwaterlevels,butdonotconsiderresponse capabilitiesorcommunicationwithdownstreamcommunities. Internationalframeworksandagreements1havepushedfor EWStobe‘people-centred’,focusingontheneedsandpriorities ofpeoplelivinginflood-proneareas.Sincetheearly2000s,NGOs havesupportedthisagendabycreatingcommunity-basedEWS (Smithetal.,2017),butthesehavegenerallyruninparallelto officialsystems.Inrecentyears,therehasbeenaconcertedeffort toconnectwithnationalsystemsandhelpnationalagencies(such astheNationalEmergencyOperationsCentre(NEOC)inNepal)to communicatemessagesandbuildresponsecapacitiesatlocallevel. Howthesedifferentinstitutionsandsystemscontributeto,and takeresponsibilityfor,floodEWSthroughaperiodofchanging governanceinNepalisthesubjectofthispaper. 1 The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Target 3.D), the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Target G and the Paris Agreement. GOVERNANCE OF NEPAL’S FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM INTRODUCTION 6 1.1 Methodology Thepaperanalysesinstitutionalarrangementsforassessingflood hazards,andformonitoring,communicatingandresponding toearlywarnings;examinestheinteractionandcoordination betweengovernmentandnon-governmentagenciesdelivering theseservices;andmakesrecommendationsforhowthese arrangementscouldbestrengthenedunderNepal’snew federalsystemofgovernance. ThestudybuildsonBRACEDresearchlookingattherole ofNGOsinsupportingclimateservices(Jonesetal.,2016; KirbyshireandWilkinson,2018.).DrawingonlessonsfromEWS inNepaloverthelast15years,theauthorsexamineinstitutional arrangements,coordination,communicationanddecision-making processesinfloodEWS.Theanalysiscentresaroundfourkey elementsofanEWS(UNISDR,2006): 1. Risk knowledge –systematicallycollectingdata andundertakingriskassessments. 2. Monitoring and warning services – developinghazard monitoringandearlywarningservices. 3. Dissemination and communication –communicating riskinformationandearlywarnings. 4. Response capability/capacity – buildingnational andcommunityresponsecapabilities. Anadditionalelementinthestudycaptures: 5. The governance arrangements and institutional relationshipsthatshapefloodEWS. GOVERNANCE OF NEPAL’S FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM INTRODUCTION 7 Theresearchwasdesignedinpartnershipwithregionaland countrystakeholders,buildingonissuesidentifiedthrough BRACEDresearchandengagementactivities,including: • Aworkshopon‘Strengtheninglocal-levelEWSwithimproved local-levelgovernanceandgenderanddiversityinclusion’, heldinNovember2017. • Findingsfromascopingreporton‘Strengthening
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