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Next-Generation Thermal Power Generation [2Nd Featured Article] People-Friendly Assistive Technology Development

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Next-Generation Thermal Power Generation [2Nd Featured Article] People-Friendly Assistive Technology Development 2017 No.62 Reporting on Today and Tomorrow’s Energy, Environmental, and Industrial Technologies [1st Featured Article] Highly Efficient and Eco-Friendly Next-Generation Thermal Power Generation [2nd Featured Article] People-Friendly Assistive Technology Development New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization FocusNEDO62_eng.indd 1 2017/01/25 13:34 Directing the Future Perspectives on Future Technologies Artificial Intelligence for People and Society Yoshiharu Habu Shogi Player In March 2016, an artificial intelligence (AI) and a professional Go player played several Go matches and attracted tremendous interest. In the past, chess, Go, and Shogi players have played matches against computers, and it’s clearly shown the history of the evolution of computers. Lately, AI technologies such as “machine learning” and “deep learning” have drawn much attention, but the most difficult thing for these interactions between computers and humans is that the thinking process of an AI is done in a black box. People don’t know how the process leads from the question to the answer – people don’t know the way of thinking an advanced AI has followed. From now on, it is expected that AI will be leveraged in many situations in society, but for humans the way of thinking and the process are important as well. Unless there are convincing explanations and consensus, it might be difficult to be incorporated in the society even if the technologies are highly advanced. Additionally, AI is not 100% versatile. For example, in Shogi there is a term “horizon effect”. It means to procrastinate on solving major problems and disadvantages and cover them up, and eliminate them from the assessment of predictions. In the Go matches I mentioned at the beginning, there was only on match the human beat the AI and it is widely believed that it is because the AI suddenly went out of control or made mysterious mistakes. But I believe it was probably because of the horizon effect. Therefore, humans and AIs should complement each other, and humans always have to backup and check AIs. I feel it is necessary to deepen discussions on how we should use or not to use AI in society, not only in terms of rules and Yoshiharu Habu Born in 1970. Started playing Shogi legislation but also in terms of ethical and emotional preparation. when he was a first grader and then won the elementary students Shogi When an AI presents selections and decisions which are unfit to a human’s championship. Joined the Shoreikai, the training organization to cultivate aesthetics, should the human accept the AI’s decisions and change their professional Shogi players, when he was a sixth grader. Became the third aesthetics or should the human and AI choose their own ways? Either one middle school student in history to be could be possible, but when we face AI, I believe the challenge for humans a professional Shogi player. In 1986, won the rookie of the year award with is to see if we understand the answers drawn by AI and transform them the number one winning rate. In 1989, became the youngest Ryu-oh-i title into our technologies and knowledge for the improvement of human. When holder in the history. In 1994, became Meijin title holder. In 1996, became the we accomplish this task, I believe the new direction for the future will be first holder of all seven major titles in history. In 2008, became eligible to be established, which is completely different from the society and world as a Eisei Meijin title holder. Holds first place on various records including all-time continuation of the current ones. career titles and wins on official matches. 02 FocusNEDO62_eng.indd 2 2017/01/13 16:00 Contents 20 Perspectives on Future Technologies Yoshiharu Habu, Shogi Player 04 1st Featured Article We'll Highly Efficient and answer your Eco-Friendly questions! Next-Generation Thermal Power Generation 04 Q.1 Is coal-fired thermal power necessary? 2nd Featured Article 06 Q.2 What will thermal power generation be 12 like in the future? People-Friendly Assistive Technology 09 column Japanese Thermal Power Technology Will Development Help Solve Global Pollution Problems 16 Easy to understand! News Release 10 Q.3 How do we address the issues of global Commentary warming? Explosion-Proof Inspection Robot Developed 18 After Project Follow Up! NEDO Project Success Stories Playback History Vol 2. Project to Create Photocatalyst Industry for a Recycling-Oriented Society 20 NEDO Information Information on Upcoming NEDO Events 2017 No.62 Reporting on Today and Tomorrow’s Energy, Environmental, and Industrial Technology “Focus NEDO” is the public relations magazine of the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), introducing the public to NEDO’ s various projects and technology development activities related to energy, environmental and industrial technologies. Focus NEDO 2017 No.62 03 FocusNEDO62_eng.indd 3 2017/01/25 14:59 st We'll 1 Featured Article answer your Highly Efficient and Eco-Friendly questions! Next-Generation Thermal Development of thermal power technologies based on the use of coal and LNG (liquid natural gas) as fuel has continued to advance. By using a small amount of energy to generate as much power as possible, NEDO has been trying to reduce the amount of CO2 emitted, which is considered to be of the main problems with thermal power generation. This article covers next-generation thermal power generation technologies NEDO is aiming to develop. Is coal-fired thermal power Q.1 necessary? Yes, it is. Because coal is the power source responsible for A.1 the stable power supply! Thermal Power Generation is Essential renewable energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy in the future, thermal power is still important as a back-up power for a Stable Power Supply source to these energy sources since their power generation Thermal power generation is a method of generating power depends on the weather conditions,” Nobuyuki Zaima, Director by converting energy obtained from burning fuel into kinetic General of NEDO’s Environment Department, explains with energy through the use of a turbine, which is then used to produce regards to the role of thermal power. electrical energy by driving a generator. As for the future of thermal power, which currently is the core Because thermal power generation utilizes so-called fossil fuels of power generation in Japan, “Long-Term Energy Supply and such as natural gas, coal, and oil as fuel sources, there are many Demand Outlook”, determined by the Ministry of Economy, who say we should not use thermal power because it releases Trade and Industry (METI) in July 2015, says that coals, LNG the greenhouse gas CO2. Especially after the adoption of the and petroleum account for 88% of the total thermal power source Paris Agreement at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change in FY 2013, but the goal is to reduce the energy composition of Conference (COP21) last December, the interests of each country these three sources to 56% by FY 2030. Based on this, it aims on the discussions regarding energy policies and countermeasures to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by 26% in FY 2030 against global warming have been increased all around the world. compare to FY 2013. In Japan, scrutiny of the whole concept of thermal power has Mr. Zaima also says that coal-based thermal power is still a very increased as well. important power source throughout the world because of the low “First of all, Japan depends on imports for almost all■ 再生エネルギーthe energy cost. sources we use so we need to maintain a condition where■バイオマス we have “There are many countries that have coal as one of their natural various power generation methods available to maintain■水素 a stable resources, including countries in Africa as well as Central and South America which are in the middle of the economic energy supply. Thermal power using fuels such as■ coals原子力 takes one of these roles. Although we expect to increase the usage of development. To solve the problem of power shortages associated ■ガス ■石油 ▶Comparison of Power Source Composition, FY 2013 and FY 2030 ▶Worldwide Power Generation Breakdown by Source 原子力 1% 2013年度 ■石炭 原子力 （Mtoe） Thermal Efficiency（％） FY 2013 FY 2030 10,000 45 20～22% 2030年度 Japan Other Renewable Energy Japan 9,000 43 再生 1% Bio-energy 8,000 Hydrogen 41 エネルギー 11% Germany LNG 20～ Nuclear Power 11% 7,000 39 27% Germany 22% UK 27% 6,000 Gas 37 USA 石油 15% UK Petroleum 再生 LNG ■LNG 43% 5,000 15% 43% USA Coal 35 エネルギー ■Coal 22～ 4,000 22～24% Petroleum 24% 33 ■ 3,000 Australia 石炭 ■Renewable 30% Australia 26% 31 30% Energy 2,000 China China 29 ■Nuclear Power 1,000 46％ 37％ India 27 石炭 3% 0 石油 3% 26% India 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040（Year） 25 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012（Year） Thermal power will remain an important base load power source in the future. Coal-based power generation will still be necessary globally in the future. Source: METI, “Technology Roadmap for Next-Generation Thermal Power Generation” Source: IEA, “World Energy Outlook” 2002, 2004, 2007-2012, & 2014 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040（年） 04 ㉙発電効率 Thermal Efficiency ㉚年 Year 13％ Europe ㉛日本 Japan 33％ 30％ 273.7B t ドイツ Germany FocusNEDO62_eng.indd 4 2017/01/17 15:25 12％ 46％ North America イギリス UK 37％ 41％ 245.1B t アメリカ USA 30％ 58％ Central Asia & East Asia オーストラリア Australia 217.9B t 中国 China インド India 99％ South America 南アメリカ 48％ 51％ 49％ 48％ South-east Asia & Oceania 14.6B t Africa & Middle East 107.2B t 146億t 1％ 1％ 32.9B t 3％ Brown Recoverable Coal Reserve in the World: 891.5B t Coal Anthracite Coal 23％ + Anthracite Coal + Bituminous Coal: 410.1B t Bituminous Coal Subbituminous Coal: 276.4B t Subbituminous Coal 46％ Brown Coal: 205.0B t 31％ Osaki CoolGen Corporation (Osaki Kamijima-cho, Hiroshima) where Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle demonstration tests are conducted.
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