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Home , Chobe National Park, Moremi Game Reserve, Nxai Pan, Nxai Pan National Park, Springbok

view from THE TOP In conservation circles, is considered to be one of ’s success stories. The government is stable and has a strong conservation agenda and, particularly in the north, wildlife-based tourism is thriving. Nonetheless, for respected researcher Michael Chase, alarm bells were ringing and, as the results of an intense aerial survey show, there is every reason to be worried.

TEXT BY MICHAEL CHASE PHOTOGRAPHS BY KELLY LANDEN

s the scarlet sun ascends over the horizon, the drone of a small Aplane disturbs the ’s early morning silence. The ani- mals below are accustomed to the air traffic that ferries tourists to and from remote safari camps and pay little atten- tion, but inside the confines of the four- seater Cessna 182 there is a palpable sense of excitement. I’m part of a team that is embarking on a three-month aer- ial survey to count wildlife across north- ern Botswana’s magnificent wilderness. It is the first survey of its kind over what has long been considered one of Africa’s last wildlife strongholds, where the com- monly held perception is that numbers are burgeoning and that wildlife is secure. Botswana’s conservation track record over the past 20 years has been impres- sive, a model for other countries. And yet, in reading the diaries of early explorers and biologists’ reports from the 1960s and having spent countless nights around campfires with bush-trodden madalas, I know that as little as 40 years ago thou- sands of migrating and moved seasonally between the Central Kalahari, the Makgadikgadi Pans and the Okavango Delta. , and grazed on extensive grass- lands in herds that numbered tens of thousands. In spite of all our conservation achievements, we simply don’t see these

spectacles any more. 

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he catastrophic crash in wildlife understand population trends. In 2004, numbers during the 1970s has however, budget constraints put paid to THE SURVEY largely been attributed to the con- these efforts and since then, debates A T Total flying time 250 hours ZAMBIA struction of veterinary fences, which have raged about the conservation status blocked seasonal migratory routes and of wildlife, elephant numbers and the Total flight line 25 598 kilometres prevented from accessing food reliability of previous aerial censuses. Total area 73 478 square kilometres and water. To avoid repeating such mis- After 10 years of studying the ecology Special notes Observations of bird spe- takes, the Botswana government regular- of and flying many surveys cies included wattled crane, southern ly surveyed wildlife in an attempt to over various sections of the five-country ground-hornbill, saddle-billed , African Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conser- fish-eagle, lappet-faced vulture and Chobe NP vation Area (KAZA TFCA), I had seen bateleur. Baobab trees were assessed enough nagging signs that wildlife num- for size and possible damage. Elephant bers appeared to be declining to be con- carcasses and bones were recorded, as Okavango Delta BOTSWANA cerned. I suspected that deforestation, were environmental conditions, like the habitat fragmentation, poaching and extent of bush fires and the structural fires were playing a role, but wanted to integrity of fence lines. In the tribal grazing investigate it scientifically. Reliable es- areas, were also counted. Technic- N timates of wildlife numbers based on ally robust, the survey’s ground coverage U technically robust survey methods were, sampling intensity averaged 20 per cent I believed, of paramount importance to Forest reserve in comparison to five per cent during Moremi Reserve previous surveys. It is the first indepen- Commercial farms Makgadikgadi Pans NP it wasn’t long before dent fixed-wing aerial survey to provide National park concession-level estimates for wildlife Pastoral/Arable/Residential Survey area the survey data and Cattle ranches International border populations in Botswana. Wildlife management area Water subsequent analyses To access the full results of the survey, began to reveal that go to www.elephantswithoutborders.org in parts of northern ANGOLA ZAMBIA B Botswana the wildlife Botswana, which relies heavily on the NAMIBIA was in trouble wildlife tourism industry for job cre- ation and foreign income.

In 2010, during a meeting with the ZIMBABWE Honourable Minister of Environment, Kitso Mokaila, I was given the encour- aging news that the government would help to fund a thorough aerial count of wildlife throughout northern Botswana. Eagerly, I submitted a proposal for BOTSWANA Elephants Without Borders to take on this responsibility and in July was grant- ed permission and support to start this N seminal count. U e started flying in September, at Flight line the beginning of the dry, hot Survey area Wseason. Our altitude averaged Strata boundaries 90 metres above ground level and we International border followed straight, parallel lines or ELephants without borders (2) transects. Flying for five hours each day in cramped conditions and contending with buffeting winds, high-flying birds Each day brought fresh excitement as we ABOVE In September 2010, Elephants Without Borders and the heat take immense skill and traversed the natural splendour of Bo- undertook an aerial survey of wildlife in northern Botswana that covered 73 478 square kilometres (see map A) and concentration. Despite the challenging tswana’s , from open , 25 598 kilometres of transects or straight lines (see map B). conditions, Mike Holding – friend, wild- woodlands and sandy ridges to wetlands, life film-maker and expert bush pilot – pans and rivers. Over some areas, we wit- OPPOSITE, ABOVE Springbok drink from an artificial waterhole in National Park. The did once again volunteered to help fly the nessed a seemingly never-ending panorama not fare well in the survey, with population estimates survey. Together with experienced of unique habitats, but it wasn’t long before significantly lower than those of 1996.

observers Kelly Landen and Allen Bekker the survey data and subsequent analyses OPPOSITE, BELOW Recovering from precariously low we took to the skies to collect the new began to reveal that in parts of northern numbers in the 1980s, the buffalo population appears

information. Botswana the wildlife was in trouble.  to be stable or increasing.

www.africageographic.com 41 29 per cent of the carcasses we recorded were located in close proximity to villages and home- steads in the Okavango Panhandle and Chobe Enclave, two areas where human– elephant conflict is known to occur

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CHOBE NGAMILAND CHOBE NGAMILAND CHOBE NGAMILAND

0% 0% 894% 24% 58% 20%

Elephant Sable

11% 6% 62% 79% 150% 83%

Buffalo Tsessebe

73% 25% 97% 58% 896% 81%

Eland

Giraffe

0.7% 65% 21% 96% 51% 90%

Ostrich Wildebeest

5000% 344% 9.3% 28% 60% 53%

Hippo Roan

on lands adjacent to conservation areas. grazing area for migrating wildlife spe- Survey results for Chobe and Ngamiland showing the difference in wildlife populations between 1996 and These new data show that even cies, but the Makgadikgadi alone is too 2010. While some species, especially in the Chobe area, Botswana’s relatively well-managed pro- small to support wide-ranging ungulate appear to be stable, or even increasing, population tected areas cannot be relied on to secure populations. figures from the Okavango Delta are generally not looking as healthy as previously assumed. Unless action he Okavango Delta, wildlife numbers, as the animals’ ranges Nearly 10 years ago, the Botswana gov- is taken, these trends could ultimately have an adverse Ngamiland’s spec- 11 of 14 species often encompass land beyond their bor- ernment decommissioned portions of the effect on Botswana’s wildlife tourism industry.

tacular natural counted in Ngamiland ders, where migratory habitats are being fence surrounding the adjacent Nxai Pan T  centrepiece, supports a declined by an settled by people and where grazing pas- National Park to allow wildlife to move wide diversity of ante- average of 61 per cent ture has been turned into farmland. lopes, including lechwe, To examine the impact of people and , between 1996 and 2010 agriculture on wildlife density, we also and the elusive sitatun- surveyed the Habu tribal lands on the ga. It also serves as a tsessebe, for example, declined by 83 per western side of the delta where subsist- focal concentration area cent and warthog numbers fell by 81 per ence farming and cattle grazing occur. in the , pro- cent. Even impala were down 24 per cent. Here we recorded 33 cattle – and just viding abundant water Why have large populations in three wild animals – per square kilo- and food for other the delta fallen so drastically? Climatic metre. In the neighbouring Abu wildlife wildlife. As expected, variations can have a strong impact on the management area there are 40 wild ani- throughout our survey availability of water and food, which in mals per square kilometre. There is a most animals were seen turn affects population numbers. An ana- clear separation between areas of high ABOVE Cattle farming and habitat encroachment are in the delta or within 30 kilometres of a lysis of rainfall data for Ngamiland and cattle and high wildlife numbers, demon- displacing wildlife and blocking dispersal corridors. major perennial river. According to our water-flow data for the Okavango River strating that where people and livestock TOP The meandering Okavango River. Water flow rates estimates, however, 11 of 14 species showed that the severe 20-year drought, are concentrated, wildlife populations are in the river were below average during the 1980s and counted in Ngamiland declined by an which started in the 1980s, did indeed cor- lower. There also seems to be increasing 1990s, although the 2010 flood is the fourth-highest on record. While it is tempting to ascribe declines in wildlife average of 61 per cent between 1996 and respond with significant declines in wild- competition for grazing lands – cattle number to the drought, it’s not the only factor. 2010, averaging a drop of 10 per cent life populations in the Okavango Delta. were observed within conservation areas, each year. Drought, however, should not be seen as the Jao concession and eastern portions OPPOSITE 70 kilometres of the fence enclosing the have been removed. Zebras, in Wildebeest numbers in the delta have the only or principal factor driving wild- of the Makgadikgadi Pans National Park. particular, seem to be taking advantage of the increased fallen by a staggering 90 per cent, from life declines. The Makgadikgadi Pans National Park access to the Okavango Delta. 23 538 in 1999 to just 1 985 in 2010. In encompasses one of the largest salt flats

PREVIOUS SPREAD Contrary to popular perception, , which protects a he results of our aerial survey offer in the world. Inhospitable to human elephant numbers have, in fact, stabilised. Lower birth large part of the delta, we estimated just the best evidence to date that wild- habitation, the flats remain relatively rates, increased mortality and greater opportunities to 130 wildebeest. The species’ plight high- life losses are likely to be linked to undisturbed. The plains surrounding move into neighbouring countries could all account for T this levelling off. lights the general trend of wild ungulates: the steady increase in human settlements this inland sea of salt serve as a huge

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between the pans and the Okavango Delta. According to a recent study by Elephants Without Borders and another conducted by zebra researcher Hattie Bartlam-Brooks, ele- phants and zebras have resumed their his- torical movements between the two sys- tems. The resumption of these long-distance migrations could have a positive impact on spe- Current numbers cies that use this route. However, non- migratory species, such as springbok, are of wildlife still render still in trouble. northern Botswana Springbok numbers appear to be declin- one of Africa’s ing at a rate of nine per cent per year, with the 2010 survey estimate of 1 565 great wildlife tourism revealing a 50 per cent decline since 1996. destinations, but the Fortunately other wildlife populations in integrity of the system is the region are largely stable. Gemsbok, at high risk which showed a steady fall until 1999, are now increasing, and ostrich numbers are up 72 per cent over the 2004 estimates. Moving north, we flew over the entire across a vast portion of the study area. certainly run contrary to the perception we recorded were located in close proxim- . Here the trends in wildlife Within itself the that the country’s elephant population is ity to villages and homesteads in the populations are more positive, despite the buffalo, , kudu and zebra popula- increasing rapidly. Okavango Panhandle and Chobe Enclave, extensive brushfires that had occurred tions appear to be holding firm. Roan This trend could be attributed to two areas where human–elephant conflict antelope and ostrich figures reduced birth rates or increased mortal- is known to occur. This data reinforces have fallen slightly, while ities (or both). The recent dispersal of further the escalating competition for those of sable and lechwe elephants into neighbouring countries resources between humans and wildlife. If have doubled, eland and may also account for this apparent sta- farms continue to be allocated in prime ABOVE Ostriches were among the large birds that were tsessebe have tripled, and bilisation – a Botswana government- wildlife habitat and critical migratory included in the survey, which also provided the country impala and warthog are approved 35-kilometre gap in the fence corridors, human–wildlife conflict will with its first estimates of African fish-eagle and southern ground-hornbill populations. showing a tenfold increase. along the Caprivi border is already intensify, connectivity between seasonal serving as an effective wildlife corridor ranges will be disrupted and wild OPPOSITE, ABOVE Hippos seek refuge in a pool left otswana is rightfully facilitating the movement of animals numbers will decline. by the receding waters of the Okavango River. Their numbers have increased substantially over previous considered to be the from the Okavango Delta across the figures, but this may be attributed to improved counting elephant capital of into Angola. he results of the aerial survey have methods. B the world, with a popula- Other notable observations included a been presented to the Botswana OPPOSITE, BELOW An iconic delta image – lechwe tion that has been assumed significant increase in elephant bulls in Tgovernment and key conservation charging across floodplains – may be in jeopardy. The to be growing. Estimates Makgadikgadi Pans and Nxai Pan stakeholders at a meeting hosted by the population here now stands at 32 000, less than half of the 1996 count. taken from the govern- national parks, which may be attrib- Botswana Tourism Organisation. There is ment’s previous nine aerial uted to the rejuvenated Boteti River sys- a lot at stake. Current numbers of wild- BELOW Author Mike Chase sets up navigation systems surveys suggest that north- tem. Chobe National Park posted the life still render northern Botswana one of and enters data recorded by the observers. ern Botswana’s elephant highest densities of elephants, especially Africa’s great wildlife tourism destina- population did increase along the Chobe River, where there are tions, but the integrity of the system is at during the early 1990s, but five elephants per square kilometre, and high risk. Aware of the consequences to since 2001 elephant num- between the Linyanti and Savute rivers the tourism industry if nothing is done, bers have remained at an (eight elephants per square kilometre). the government has undertaken to com- estimated 130 000. These Elephants have extended their range mit resources to understanding the rea- results are unexpected, south and west of the delta, towards the sons for wildlife declines. President Ian given that the growth rate central Kalahari and Kwebe Hills respec- Khama, upon hearing the results of this of elephant populations in tively, a dispersal that coincides with study, pledged to ‘…formulate a plan of the region is thought to be increasing reports of conflict with hu- action that can effectively stop and ulti- five per cent per year. They mans. Some 29 per cent of the carcasses mately reverse this undesirable trend’. AG

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