S k e p t i c i s m . S c i e n c e . S o c i e t y

Vol. 30, No 3. September 2010

tics kep eak S Sp autism, Cults young Skeptics & the right approach Faith healing j GALILEO j Astrology

Australian Skeptics . www.skeptics.com.au

Skeptic_Cover_Sep10.indd 1 3/9/10 9:45:40 AM The Skeptic September 10

Skeptical Groups in Australia

Australian Skeptics Inc – Eran Segev Queensland Skeptics Association Inc – Bob Bruce www.skeptics.com.au PO Box 1388 Coorparoo DC 4151 PO Box 20, Beecroft, NSW 2119 Tel: (07) 3255 0499 Mob: 0419 778 308 [email protected] Tel: 02 8094 1894; Mob: 0432 713 195; Fax: (02) 8088 4735 Hear Bob on 4BC Panel - 9-10pm Tuesdays [email protected] Sydney – 6pm first Thursday of each Meeting with guest speaker on the last Monday of every month month at the City Hotel, corner of Kent & King Streets at the Red Brick Hotel, 81 Annerly Road, South Brisbane. Dinner in the city (meeting upstairs) from 6pm, speaker at 7.30pm. See our web site for details: www.qldskeptics.com Dinner meetings are held on a regular basis in Chatswood Next dinner: Sept 25 - guest speaker business analyst John Smyrk. Bookings online or contact [email protected] Canberra Skeptics – Michael O’Rourke & Pierre Le Count PO Box 555, Civic Square, ACT 2608 Tel: (02) 6121 4483 [email protected] (general inquiries), Hunter Skeptics Inc – John Turner [email protected] (Canberra Skeptics in the Pub). Tel: (02) 4959 6286 [email protected] Monthly talks usually take place on the 13th of each month at We produce a 4-page e-newsletter six times a year; contact the the Innovations Theatre at the ANU. Dates and topics are subject newsletter editor ([email protected]) to add your to change. Canberra Skeptics in the Pub gather from time to email address to receive the e-newsletter. time at King O’Malleys Pub in Civic. For up-to-date details, visit our web site at: http://finch.customer.netspace.net.au/skeptics/ Meetings are held upstairs at The Cricketers Arms Hotel, Cooks Hill on the first Monday of each even-numbered month, commencing 7.00pm, with a guest speaker on an interesting topic. Skeptics SA – Laurie Eddie 52B Miller St Unley, SA 5061 Tel: (08) 8272 5881 [email protected] Australian Skeptics (Vic) Inc – Terry Kelly GPO Box 5166, Melbourne VIC 3001 Thinking and Drinking - Skeptics in the Pub, on the third Friday Tel: 1 800 666 996 [email protected] of every month. Contact [email protected] www.meetup.com/Thinking-and-Drinking-Skeptics-in-the-Pub/ Skeptics’ Café – Third Monday of every month, with guest calendar/10205558 or http://tinyurl.com/loqdrt speaker. La Notte, 140 Lygon St. Meal from 6pm, speaker at 8pm sharp. More details on our web site www.skeptics.com.au/vic WA Skeptics – Dr John Happs PO Box 466, Subiaco, WA 6904 Tel: (08) 9448 8458 [email protected] Borderline Skeptics – Russell Kelly All meetings start at 7:30 pm at Grace Vaughan House, PO Box 17, Mitta Mitta, Victoria 3701 227 Stubbs Terrace, Shenton Park Tel: (02) 6072 3632 [email protected] Further details of all our meetings and speakers are on our website at www.undeceivingourselves.com Meetings are held quarterly on second Tuesday at Albury/ Wodonga on pre-announced dates and venues. Australian Skeptics in Tasmania – Leyon Parker PO Box 582, North Hobart TAS 7002 Gold Coast Skeptics – Lilian Derrick Tel: 03 6238 2834 BH, 0418 128713 [email protected] PO Box 8348, GCMC Bundall, QLD 9726 Skeptics in the Pub - 2nd Thursday each month, 6.30pm, Prince Tel: (07) 5593 1882; Fax: (07) 5593 2776 of Wales Hotel, Battery Point [email protected] Contact Lilian to find out news of more events. Darwin Skeptics – Brian de Kretser Tel: (08) 8927 4533 [email protected] Volume 30 • No 3 • September 10 Contents

re p o rt S Aust Skeptics at TAM8 6 Richard Saunders AVN’s annus horibilis 8 8 Tim Mendham 6 FEATURES Education on cults 11 Michael Wolloghan Pugliucci interview 14 Richard Saunders 18 22 Young Aussie Skeptics 16 Richard Hughes 18 14 Peter Ellerton 11 Autism Debate 22 Eran Segev & Bob Buckley

art i c l es 30 Belief in astrology 30 Caitlin Brain & Krissy Wilson The church & Galileo 34 Helen Lawrence Experiencing faith healing 36 34 Peter Ellerton 36 F o ru m 58 Sucrose debate 48 Forbes-Ewan, Gillespie et al Big Bang 54 54 Various authors Climate economics 56 Mark Lawson Solar energy economics 58 Tony Heyes 48

REGU L ARS Editorial 4 Around the Traps 5 Puzzles page 21 43 What goes around 28 Book reviews 40 Astrology column 60 Letters 61 40 EDITORIAL From the Editor

I can hear you … any years ago (more than twenty, dissemination than they deserve, if they Mto be approximately exact) I used deserve anything at all. to edit a magazine called The Skeptic. But there is very much a positive You may have heard of it. In those days, side that should outweigh the negative the magazine was the prime source of implications. And that is that ISSN 0726-9897 information to the body of Skeptics is no longer a secret, but a growing Quarterly Organ of in Australia about the views, news and movement that encompasses all ages and Australian Skeptics Inc evidence under discussion by members. all manners of communication. There is a (ABN 90 613 095 379) There was also an annual convention boldness and vivacity – not to mention a Editor – still a regular event after 30 years – and large dose of excitement, enthusiasm and Tim Mendham the occasional get-together over food, beer humour – about current activity. And or whatever. long may it continue. Editorial Board Other than that, there was not a lot There are examples of Skeptics Steve Roberts to bring Skeptics together to keep them proclaiming their views in this issue, as Barry Williams informed and to allow the sharing of there always have been. But the breadth Krissy Wilson opinions and findings. and depth of views that continue Michael Wolloghan To be truthful, these limitations to today are as considered as they are communication meant that the skeptical encompassing and should be encouraged. Design Services message was not readily heard or With that in mind, I welcome Nova Consulting P/L understood, and was regarded in some contributions from all corners, and for All correspondence to: circles as a ‘dirty little secret’ that dare not all segments of the magazine – articles, Australian Skeptics Inc speak its name. news items, forums, letters and reviews. PO Box 20 In the years since then, largely The Skeptic thrives on diversity and while Beecroft NSW 2119 thanks to the development of a range of we would steer clear of the intemperate, Australia technologies, Skeptics have enjoyed far vindictive and misinforming, we do greater and more rapid dissemination of work according to the philosophy of Contact details information, which has given them the “vive la difference”. There are – and Tel: +61 (0)2 8094 1894 capability (“empowerment” is the word should be – items which for one reason Mob: +61 (0)432 713 195 used in recent years) to promulgate their or another rouse endorsement or, equally, Fax: +61 (0)2 8088 4735 views widely. irritation. Such views encourage debate, [email protected] This is not to say that this magazine and preferably informed debate, which www.skeptics.com.au no longer holds a significant role in the is the stuff of the scientific method. Yes, Skeptical world. It most certainly does, there will be the occasional misinformed The Skeptic is published four times and it remains – whether in digital or or even silly contribution, at least in per year by Australian Skeptics Inc. hard copy format – the prime source of some people’s eyes. There’s nothing Views and opinions expressed in articles evidence-based discourse and discussion wrong with that as long as the response and letters in The Skeptic are those of on the many and varied issues that (and you can believe me there will a the authors, and are not necessarily Skeptics concern themselves with. response) is concerned with well-meant those of Australian Skeptics Inc. But a considerable outcome of the and sometimes good-humoured debate, Articles may be reprinted with rise in varied technologies – the internet, discussion and correction. permission and with due acknowledge- websites, email, SMS, Twitter, Facebook, I look forward to hearing from you. . ment to The Skeptic. All effort is made to YouTube, blogs, podcasts and vodcasts, ensure correct acknowledgement of all and there are bound to be others I’ve - Tim Mendham, editor contributions. We are happy to update missed – is that more people have credit when so informed. delivered more information to a broader PS: A hearty thanks to Steve Roberts for his Editorial submission deadlines audience than ever before. behind-the-scenes contribution to this issue. October 15, 2010 This, of course, can lead to problems. Despite being in Sweden, enjoying meatballs January 15, 2011 Intemperate statements, vindictive and filbunke, he added an oversight that April 15, 2011 invective and downright misinformation was both valuable and valued, not to July 15, 2011 are given more credence and mention extremely prompt. 4 N e w s The Skeptic September 10 Around the traps ...

Global views Yamaguchi Prefecture last year, after a on homeopathy midwife gave the baby a homeopathic remedy instead of a vitamin K2 Skeptics There have been mixed reactions to injection. change of address homeopathy recently, particularly following the UK House of Commons Subscribers, contributors & Technology Committee Evolution for schools statement which, according the British and members should Medical Journal, concludes that In an effort to promote note that the address “homeopathy is a placebo treatment an understanding of the that deceives patients and could principles of evolution for correspondence with therefore damage the implicit trust among students, the Australian Skeptics Inc between doctor and patient”. Hunter Skeptics have has changed to: Despite this view, England’s Dept of distributed 25 copies of the Health has passed the buck by rejecting book: Evolution: How We PO Box 20 demands to stop funding the use of and All Living Things Came Beecroft NSW 2119 homeopathy in the NHS, “saying that to Be, by Canadian skeptic local primary care trusts should be to local Australia. left to make up their own minds as to school libraries. (The book whether the treatment is appropriate was reviewed in The Skeptic, for their patients”. 30:1, p48.) [Source: BMJ 2010;341:c4073] John Turner, chairman of the In Germany, and again despite Hunter Skeptics, suggests that for the fact that some German individual subscribers or other pharmacology experts would like groups who might wish to make a The previous address at to see public health insurers cease contribution to a local school, the PO Box 262, Roseville 2069 paying for it, the German Medical books can be ordered at The Book Association (Bundesärztekammer) Depository online for less than $20 will remain valid for a period has come out in favour of keeping each delivered. More information to ensure all mail is forwarded its reimbursement. The association’s on the book distribution or the president, Jörg-Dietrich Hoppe, has Hunter Skeptics generally can be to the new address. defended homoeopathic treatment obtained by emailing John Turner at in an official statement. He said that [email protected]. despite the lack of scientific evidence for its effectiveness homoeopathy was Hmmm ... an important part of medicine. The AVN’s latest worry - statement comes amid a public debate mosquitoes So what’s popular at the after the publication in the magazine cinema? Der Spiegel of a lead article questioning The Australian Life Scientist magazine The US grosses of a selection the value of homoeopathic treatment. reports that researchers from the Jichi of movies says it all: [Source: BMJ 2010;341:c3902] Medical University in Japan have • Avatar [2009] - Meanwhile, on the other side of genetically engineered the Anopheles $749,766,139 coin, (not to mention the other side of stephensi strain of mosquitoes, • The Exorcist [1973 + 2000] the world), Ichiro Kanazawa, chairman modifying their saliva gland to - $232,671,011 of the Science Council of Japan, said deliver a vaccine against the parasite, • Blair Witch Project [1999] at a press conference last month that Leishmania. The mosquito strain is - $140,539,099 “Homeopathy’s therapeutic value has best known for its role in spreading • Paranormal Activity [2009] been scientifically and conclusively malaria. - $107,918,810 disproven.” Kanazawa made the However the report says that • The Haunting [1999] - comments in response to the October such a method of vaccinating large $91,411,151 2009 death of a newborn infant from populations is unlikely to be rolled out • The Skeptic [2009] - vitamin K deficiency bleeding in any time soon “for ethical reasons”. $6,671 5 r e p o r t TAM8 Breakfast with Randi

A report on yet another truly Amazing Meeting by Richard Saunders himself together with his partner Jose Alvarez. “Richard!” exclaimed Randi and he James Randi Educational Angeles. Oh well, these things happen. greeted me with a hug. He then gave TFoundation (JREF) has held We arrived a few days early to unwind, Joanne a hug, much to her amazement its annual relax and get over jet-lag. But not a as she had never met the man, and (TAM) since 2003. Now the premier hope. As soon as we walked into the invited us both to share his table. The skeptical convention in the world, it casino we discovered a horde of eager next 30 minutes were spent updating was originally held in Fort Lauderdale, delegates were there already. We were Randi as to events in Australia and then Florida, and moved to Las Vegas in quickly caught up in excitement and listening to him recall his experiences 2004. My first TAM was TAM6 in socialising with people keen to talk to of going through chemotherapy and his 2008 where I was honoured to be us about our activities in Australia. For subsequent recovery. I must say that he included on the bill as a guest speaker. we three, the priority was staying awake is looking very well indeed for a man I used my time on stage to give a through the day to adjust to the time of his age - almost 82 - and given his demonstration of how to test water zone and hopefully being reunited with medical concerns over the last few years. diviners and that presentation is now our bags (with clean underwear!). That Presently, he and Jose left us to finish online as a video at http://tinyurl. happy meeting would not happen until our pancakes. I looked over at Joanne com/dzlzvl. 1am the next morning. who I think was about ready to burst! This year I was joined in the long Day two and I awoke feeling “That was amazing!” she said giggling, flight across the Pacific by TAM somewhat peckish. I wandered down and I had to agree. There was to be one Australia committee and Skeptic Zone the corridor to Joanne and Rachael’s more surprise for us when we asked the members Dr , Joanne room and knocked on the door. Joanne waiter for our bill. “Oh, the older man Benhamu and Eran Segev. As much as was up and seemed astoundingly who was here took care of that.” we were looking forward to the event bright while Rachael was catching up Eran Segev arrived later that day, itself and the wealth of prominent on lost sleep. So Joanne and I slipped meeting up with us after a paltry speakers (, Banacheck, down to the main casino floor where three hours of sleep to plan our time , Simon Singh and others) we can be found no end of eateries. We at TAM. We had TAM Australia were under no illusions about goofing entered a cafe looking for breakfast and T-shirts, copies of The Skeptic and off! We were there to work and work was surprised to find none other than other information to place on our we did. Our goals were twofold. Firstly, to promote our own TAM - TAM Australia - in November this year and sell special reserve tickets; and secondly, to gather interviews for The Skeptic and also The Skeptic Zone podcast. From time to time over the four days of the event we too were interviewed by various skeptical organisations and podcasts. But I digress. Let’s pick up the adventure as three sleep deprived skeptics, Rachael, Joanne and myself (Eran was to join us the next day) arrived mid-morning at the South Point Casino in scorching Las Vegas, minus our luggage that somehow Richard Saunders and Joanne Benhamu in missed the connecting flight from Los post-breakfast mode with James Randi - hugs all round. 6 The Skeptic September 10

table located just outside the main convention hall. The plan was that one or more of us would always be at the table to talk to people, sell TAM Australia tickets and promote the Australian Skeptics. This I am pleased to say is exactly what we did over the next four days. Indeed our table seemed to turn into a popular meeting spot with friends and others keen to keep us company. The next days seem now to be lost in a blur of very late nights, very early mornings, endless hours at the information table, giving away Tim- Tams, Minties, Vegemite and musk sticks, going to parties, meetings with speakers for interviews, attending whatever presentations we could, gaining new and valuable networking channels and somehow managing to Above - Skeptical champions , James Randi and . end up in the giant hot tub with 30 of Below - Rachael Dunlop, Joanne Benhamu (a “First TAMmer”) and . our closest friends. I will have to wait for the convention DVD so I can at last see the presentations! A highlight of TAM for me was being asked by Dr Steve Novella of the Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe podcast (SGU) to be the guest auctioneer at the dinner for their fans and supporters. Although I have no experience at this sort of thing, I gave it my best shot and somehow pulled it off. Lots of laughs, lots of fun and lots of high bids to help our dear friends at the SGU. We look forward to seeing them at TAM Australia. Then came Sunday afternoon and the last official event of TAM 8. A demonstration, not a test as such, of Anita Ikonen, a young lady from Los Angles who claimed to be able to detect So TAM 8 wrapped up with many We also had time to try the one-and-a- which of five volunteers was missing happy delegates, over 1300, heading half pounds of crab legs on special for a kidney. Together with preamble and home to all corners of the globe. $17 (and we have been raving about interviews with Randi and Alison Many of the talks at TAM have them ever since!). But there was one Smith from the JREF, the event took resonated long after the convention last surprise in store for us. That night about two hours which perhaps tested ended. Phil Plait’s speech on how best Rachael and I bumped into James the patience of some in the audience. to deliver the message of skepticism has Randi who seemed to be at a loose end Nevertheless it was a good example of affectionately been renamed as “Don’t as to dinner arrangements. what the JREF and indeed groups like be a dick” and is still creating a buzz I offered him to be our guest and he Australian Skeptics must do in order in skeptical circles. Bruce M. Hood accepted. It was another unforgettable to test such claims. In the end, Anita and left us thinking about meal with Rachael filling Randi in on ‘guessed’ the wrong volunteer. We the science behind belief and whether our efforts against the anti-vaccination were also told that Banacheck, a fine any of us is ever really free of flawed crowd and Randi regaling us with magician and mentalist, would now thinking. stories of his adventures and life in take over the role of testing claims for Monday was at long last a real scepticism. It was the perfect way to the JREF $1,000,000 prize. chance for the Australian team to relax. round off our journey to Las Vegas. . 7 r e p o r t Anti-Vax BAD Day at Bangalow! Tim Mendham catches up with Meryl Dorey’s annus horribilis.

t hasn’t been a good year for the being “dishonest”, “irresponsible” and in what the Sydney Morning Herald IAustralian [anti]Vaccination Network. putting children through painful and describes as a “ramshackle house” at It started off badly, and it just kept unnecessary tests. Newrybar, near Bangalow, on the NSW getting worse and worse. Naturally, this made Wakefield a North Coast. The AVN found itself described as martyr to the cause. Dorey’s stark warning was that “If using “misrepresentation, selective and In February, the AVN president Meryl nobody comes forward to take on the inaccurate reporting and indiscriminate Dorey announced she was relinquishing role of President or if the funds are not use of research material” and being her position to “move onto the next provided to allow us to continue ... the “a risk to public health and safety”. stage of my personal development”, AVN will be ceasing operations on or Not to mention a finding that it had citing financial pressures and her need about the 28th of February.” been raising funds as a charity without to “still have a life” and return to being a Some funds did come in as donations authorisation. mother and a wife for the benefit of her (see below), but apparently no-one Readers will recall that, in January, “children [who] have missed out on so came forward to take on the president’s the AVN – and anti-vaccination groups much so I could run the AVN”. role. Dorey is still there as media around the world – suffered a major She said that she hoped someone spokesperson, “running” the AVN, but set-back when Andrew Wakefield, the would step into the financial breach, whether she is still the president is a poster boy of the movement who had offering enough money for her to moot point. Naturally, this has made suggested a link between MMR vaccine continue in the job (thus immediately Dorey a martyr to the cause. and autism, was struck off the medical casting aside the life-mother-wife But worse was to come. register by the UK’s General Medical notion). Council, having been found guilty of The organisation is run out of a room HCCC report Following complaints lodged last year by individuals Ken McLeod and Toni and AVN Dave McCaffery, the NSW Health Care D Complaints Commission undertook a o long and detailed investigation of the AVN. The report, released about a year n Wa a after the complaints were made, found t k t that the AVN provides “misleading and n e i inaccurate information on the subject of e f o vaccination”. d i e n The AVN has regularly defended i

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presented by the AVN on its website, which established that the site: 8 The Skeptic September 10

• provides information that is solely were largely rejected on technical and as a Church spokesperson said: “There anti-vaccination; definitional grounds, such as that the have been concerns raised by a number • contains information that is relevant code applies only to individuals of prominent church members who are BAD Day at Bangalow! incorrect and misleading; rather than organisations, and that as experts in the field of ethics and public • quotes selectively from research an individual Dorey does not provide health who have advised me that the to suggest that vaccination may be health care. However, the HCCC did message promoted by the Australian dangerous. accurately find that the AVN supplies Vaccination Network is not in line with On this basis, the Commission health education – a point earlier denied the ethos and values of the Uniting recommended to the AVN that it should by Dorey – and as such falls very much Church in Australia. Therefore, after include a statement in a prominent within the HCCC’s area of activity and consultation with the chair of church position on its website to the following expertise. council, I would like to inform you effect: Overall, the HCCC found that that no Uniting Church in the City • The AVN’s purpose is to provide “The AVN provides venue is being information against vaccination, information that made available in order to balance what it believes is misleading for “ Reporting the AVN to to the Australian is the substantial amount of the average reader the AG means the errors Vaccination pro-vaccination information by inaccurately network for available elsewhere. representing were more serious than a tomorrow night’s • The information provided by the information, mis-sized money box. meeting.” AVN should not be read as selectively reporting ” Naturally, medical advice. information, and Dorey saw this as • The decision about whether or giving non-peer reviewed and anecdotal a conspiracy against her and the AVN, not to vaccinate should be made material the same authority as peer- and portrayed herself as a martyr to the in consultation with a health care reviewed literature. On all cases of cause. provider. misrepresentation, selective and However, the meeting did go ahead The Commission said it recognises inaccurate reporting and indiscriminate a few weeks later, controversially at that it is important for there to be use of research material, the AVN and the WA State Library, and attracted debate on the issue of vaccination, Ms Dorey were doing so to maintain an what was described as a “full house” of and while its recommendations fell anti-vaccination position.” about 200 people, no doubt largely due short of suggesting the AVN close Considering the blows the HCCC’s to the controversy over the previous its operations – which is beyond the findings have delivered to the cancellation by the Uniting Church. HCCC’s purview – it clearly pinned organisation, it might now be difficult Another meeting was scheduled in the AVN’s activities as anti-vaccination, to find a competent replacement for Perth for late July. This one, held after something that the AVN has denied Dorey, should there need to be one, and the HCCC findings were reported, being for some time, despite continued anyone who does step into that position proved to be a major disappointment and accurate claims to the contrary. would likely have to undertake extensive with only a tiny audience turning up. The response to these findings by revision and curtailment of the AVN’s Unlike the first meeting, the second Dorey has ranged from the pathetic current positions and policies. meeting, held on July 20 and again at (that certain information and a The HCCC report is available at the State Library, attracted only around position statement had been placed on http://www.stopantivaxnetwork.com/ 60 people, some of whom were Skeptics. her website without her knowledge), Naturally, with such damning One of those Skeptics reported that through criticism of the HCCC as statements resting on her shoulders, many in the audience left during the biased and implying it is a lackey of Dorey portrays herself as a martyr to the seminar and others departed before government policy, to the downright cause. question time. Local Skeptic and bizarre (she admits that the AVN has podcaster said “Unlike drawn conclusions from scientific AVN meetings the last time they lectured, there were studies that are not supported by In May, prior to the HCCC report being no parents I could see, no babies in arms the studies’ own conclusions and publicised, the AVN planned a special or children, and a few sparse flyers and summaries because “we actually read meeting in Perth to promote its views pamphlets on just one table, rather than the studies”, despite her acknowledged on vaccination. The meeting was to be the splashed array of paperwork on two lack of scientific or medical held at the Uniting Church’s Church tables they had last time.” qualifications and expertise). in the City venue, with two speakers The area where the HCCC did - Dorey herself and Murdoch University Report confirmed not find for the complainants was PhD student Judy Wilyman. That In August, the HCCC confirmed the in the AVN’s lack of adherence to meeting, however, was cancelled at the report that had already been widely a code of conduct for unregistered last minute – Dorey was about to board publicised. This formal release was in health practitioners. These complaints a plane for the flight to WA – because, part prompted because the AVN had 903 r e p o r t Anti-Vax

BAD day at in this way. The Vaccination Awareness website, ie its home page. Instead, there and Information Service claims the are defensive positions regarding the Bangalow! AVN solicited donations from June recent criticism, including that “We 2006 to test vaccines for mercury, lead believe we’ve proven that the HCCC has Continued... and other heavy metals, but the testing no jurisdiction over our organisation, never occurred. “And in 2009 the AVN that the investigation was biased and failed to include the recommended solicited donations to place an autism their actions equate to censorship ...”. notice on its website regarding its true advertisement in a magazine. Despite In response to concerns expressed purpose. In this later release, it upped raising thousands of dollars from the on the AVN’s message board about her the ante on its earlier report, stating general public, these ads were never personal wellbeing, Dorey insists “I am that the nature of the AVN’s advice placed. We are not aware of these not suffering from depression, so please “may result in members of the public donations being refunded,” the service’s don’t worry about that though your making improperly informed decisions website says. concern is really appreciated. about whether or not to vaccinate, and It is believed that during this time the “There is no doubt that the constant therefore poses a risk to public health AVN also asked supporters for money to complaints and battles have affected and safety”. provide brochures on vaccination to be the AVN’s ability to preform [sic] our This bold statement raised much inserted into gift packs, called Bounty vital job of supporting and informing media interest, which consequently ran Bags, which are given to new mothers Australians. But they are not responsible the HCCC’s findings widely. It has also across Australia. for any errors which were made and meant that the media have started to But Megan Baker, the organiser found by the OLGR. treat the AVN more appropriately, of Bounty Bags, said she had never “The OLGR investigator found errors with most references to the AVN had discussions with the group and – most of them minor such as having a correctly call it an anti-vaccination would not permit its brochures to be collection box that was not the right size organisation. distributed in the bags, which contain or not having our receipt books properly But wait ... there’s more. product samples, such as nappies, baby numbered. They found no evidence wipes and rash creams, educational of fraud in anything that the AVN has OLGR findings materials and parenting magazines. done though there were some errors A different set of complaints had been “We only insert information which made. We were told that just about every made to the NSW Office of Liquor, follows public health guidelines set down small organisation such as the AVN will Gaming and Racing (OLGR) regarding by the [National Health and Medical have errors on audit.” the AVN’s charitable status, leading the Research Council] and the AVN doesn’t The fact that the OLGR was to report Office to investigate that aspect of the follow public health guidelines. They the AVN to the Department of Justice AVN’s operations. are just so controversial,” she said. “We and the Attorney General suggests that The AVN raises much of its income would only insert materials in support of the errors under question were more from donations based on its status as a immunisation.” serious than a mis-sized money box. charity, but in early August the OLGR There is still no disclaimer Naturally, Dorey portrays herself as announced that it had found that the prominently positioned on the AVN’s something of a martyr to her cause. . AVN was guilty of potential breaches of charity fund-raising laws. These included: stop press: AVN – What? Again?! • fundraising without authority; • unauthorised expenditure; he Australian Vaccination Network is under attack again, according to • failure to keep proper records of TThe Sydney Morning Herald, this time for apparent breach of copyright. income and expenditure; The AVN withdrew 11 information packs from its website recently after • possible breaches of the Charitable complaints from authors. The AVN has been selling the packs for up to $128 Trust Act, 1993, which would be each. Each pack includes an AVN-compiled book of articles photocopied from referred to the Department of newspapers, magazines, the MIMS guide and brochures from medication boxes. Justice and the Attorney General. According to the Herald, none of the authors it contacted whose work was The AVN was given 28 days to included in the packs knew that their work was being sold, and hadn’t given the respond to the findings and show why its AVN their consent to use it. Some complained that the works in questions were charity licence should not be revoked. years old and not based on current information. The AVN had been granted a fund- The Herald reported that Meryl Dorey said she was unaware she had breached raising authority from July 5, 2002, to copyright. Presumably she did not consult with one of her board of directors (as July 4, 2007, but that lapsed for two per its most recent lodgement with ASIC), Melissa Begg, principal and owner years. While the AVN’s authority has of Hinterland Legal (“BanGaLaw”), a firm in Dorey’s home locality. Ms Begg been reinstated, there have been questions completed her Masters of Law Degree with Honours specialising in intellectual raised as to the uses of any moneys raised property and digital technology law. She was also formerly a journalist. . 10 F E AT U R E Cults The Skeptic September 10

The Paradise Project

Michael Wolloghan talks with Adrian Norman about did you select that title and how did your documentary come about? What his documentary on cults for high school students. inspired you to make it?

isions of Paradise is an absorbing, Curious high school students will A David Millikan, a Uniting Church Vthought provoking documentary find the often dark and dangerous minister who I interviewed for my that aims to educate high school world of cults fascinating. Hopefully, doco, said that everyone is looking students about the nature of destructive learning the major warning signs of for “a kind of paradise”. As my cults. Indeed, Adrian Norman’s destructive cults will protect them documentary is about four people’s documentary couldn’t be better timed. from possible future manipulation and search for a paradise on earth which From alleged cover ups of sexual deception. unwittingly lands them in different but assault by the Australian branch of I spoke with Norman, a former ultimately very similar mind control the Church of Scientology to police member of the controversial Kenja cults, I thought this was a good title. raids at Agape Ministries in Adelaide, group, about the creation of his The initial idea for the charismatic cults and their followers documentary and his front line activism documentary came from Cult have become facts of Australian life. exposing destructive cults. He is a Information and Family Support in The documentary explores not confident, caring and compassionate Sydney. I had been in a cult myself and only how four cult members felt individual committed to developing had got in touch with someone whose and thought during all stages of teenagers’ critical thinking skills. daughter was at that stage still in the their involvement, but also features Naturally, any attempt to help teens cult. I went to a CIFS meeting and interviews with notable experts in the make better decisions and avoid they mentioned that they had always field of cults. The discussion of the being manipulated should be highly wanted to find someone who could subtle allure, power and structure of commended. do an educational documentary on cults in this documentary is incredibly cults that could go into schools. At the ambitious but the comprehensive QFirstly, I’d like to ask about the time I was working at the Australian explanation of the cult experience title of your documentary, Visions of Film, Television and Radio School. works well on several levels. Paradise. It’s quite intriguing. Why I had never made a film before but I 11 F E AT U R E Cults

Q What do you believe is the main wanted to draw a connection between The Paradise theme developed in your documentary? different types of cults in that they all use the same mind control techniques. Project A The main theme inVisions of Also, of course, I respected the privacy Paradise is that all people are vulnerable of those who had been in cults and Continued... and susceptible to being recruited into were brave enough to talk to me. cults. We are social animals, this is part Some things that happened to the had made a lot of theatre, so I took of our genetic hard wiring, and we are subjects of my documentary were it on board as a project. Of course, coded to obey authority and adjust to unbelievably damaging. I just didn’t I’d thought quietly to myself that if I, the expectations of others. These social want to go there. This doco is not an as a teenager, had known a bit more vulnerabilities leave us open to the exposé, I should say, it’s an educational about how cults work I would not destructive mind control that all cults documentary that explains how cults have been so sucked in. So I found it a use. work. It’s not about all the crazy, very worthy idea that I put my entire unbelievable acts various cults have energies behind. Little did I know how Q One of the important and unique convinced their members to commit. difficult it would be. But, after a few aspects of your documentary is that it years hard work, it’s done and being is focused on communicating to high Q How long did it take to complete sold around the world. I’m very happy school students. Why did you primarily Visions of Paradise? that the word is getting out about how want to do that? cults work. A It took about three years to A Young people need a heads up complete. It was like completing a Q Could you tell us more about your about how cults work to control gigantic jigsaw puzzle where you didn’t experience with destructive cults? minds. It’s for those young adults who know what the final picture was you are about to leave the relative safety of were trying to create. As I was working A I was involved for a period of school - where everything is controlled at AFTRS at the time, I had some about seven years with a cult called for them - for the chaos of life after fantastic help on how to put all the Kenja which was set up by an ex- school which seemingly has not so content I’d captured into a coherent scientologist Ken Dyers and his partner many rules at all. This can be quite and compelling narrative. It was much, Jan Hamilton in1982. I didn’t know confusing and even daunting. Young much harder than I thought it would at the time that Dyers had been a people, as we know, be. But I think these scientologist and that the techniques are incredibly idealistic types of projects are he used to control people were from and can see the world always like that. scientology. in black and white. The way I got involved with them There are plenty of ‘life QHow did you select was interesting. I had just dropped out solutions’ out there your interviewees and of uni and wanted to become an actor. that offer a way of life what kind of research I met this charismatic actress named that can be incredibly did you do for the Jan Hamilton at the then Stables attractive. A ‘vision of documentary? Theatre in Kings Cross. She invited paradise’, if you like. me to do a clowning workshop and A Everyone I then I started doing classes with her. Q Did you have interviewed had been Soon after, this much older man, Ken any qualms about put forward by CIFS, Dyers would come in to the clowning tackling the subject of so I knew that their classes to give small talks to us on time, cults? Were there any lives were back on track space and energy. A little time later rules you set for yourself about what and they could talk about their cult Jan gave up her career as an actress you would or wouldn’t discuss on the experience with the wisdom that comes and devoted herself to his ‘work’. And subject? from distance. I did a lot of research on those of us doing these clowning classes each of the cults that the subjects had one day found ourselves members of A Yes, very much. Cults that are been in, this was in the form of internet an organisation that had Dyers as the still going are incredibly litigious. As research. The internet is a fantastic leader and Hamilton as his offsider we know, say anything bad against repository for views on groups that and we were all hell bent on recruiting scientology and you will expect a letter are controversial. You’ll find the main people. Of course, we’d been sold on from their lawyers. I was concerned website of a group that purports to be the idea that what Ken was saying was about being sued for defamation. doing good work for society. And then like the word of God. It wasn’t - we So, in order to fly under the radar, I if you dig deeper you might find sites were in a cult. asked everyone I interviewed to not where ex-members give their views on name names. This was also because I what really happened behind the facade 12 The Skeptic September 10

the cult spins. As you do this research, too much. So I had to cut two stories it’s surprising how similar all cults are. out: one about a man who had been Win the It seems that absolute power corrupts in a commercial cult, a pyramid selling unexplained absolutely in each case. Cult leaders, type group, and a woman who had by definition, have this absolute power, been in a new age cult on the north If you have a pen in one they are accountable to no person on coast of NSW. There was just no way I hand and a DVD player in the Earth but maybe to God, to whom they could fit everything in. other, you may be interested have a direct line of communication in the Victorian Skeptics’ anyway. So what they say is gospel. QOne final question. Do you have creativity competition. any other projects currently in the Up for grabs is a DVD of Tony QWhat problems did you face in works? “Cunning Plan”Robinson’s making the documentary? SBS-TV series, The I have got some ideas for a doco A Unexplained (see a review A Well, even though I had no budget, project on the nature of belief that I’m other than a small loan from CIFS, working on. Stay tuned! this issue on page 43). it was an extraordinarily expensive All you have to do is submit exercise. I wanted some archival footage Note: Visions of Paradise is available an article, review, cartoon, from the ABC and from Film Australia. through Ronin Films, www.roninfilms. puzzle and/or photograph This turned out to cost more than all com.au for use on the Vic Skeptics’ the other costs combined. Another interesting problem was website, and you’ll be in the that I actually interviewed six people About the interviewer: running for a free DVD. who had been in cults. I was interested Michael Wolloghan is So go to in getting a cross-section of different a member of the NSW www.skeptics.com.au/vic types of cults. I realised as I was editing committee of Australian for more details. it, that an audience would not be able Skeptics and an investigator to follow six different stories, it’s just of cults and strange religions.

13 F E AT U R E Skepticism Fish Skeptics, Bunk & Richard Saunders interviews on philosophy and science, and the philosophy of science.

assimo Pigliucci is a Professor A Yes, via Facebook, my blog and the time or the inclination to Massimo Pigliucci in his garden Mof Philosophy at the City Amazon. It’s very interesting to get this write for the public, and the University of New York-Lehman feedback as it gives you an idea about general public. But when it College. His research is concerned with how many different ways what you write comes to issues like global warming, philosophy of science, the relationship can be interpreted. One of the early that is an area where skeptics do not between science and philosophy, and reviews that came out was from The have expertise. the relationship between science and Independent in the UK and they focused So what makes it puzzling is that religion. His latest book is Nonsense on on the chapter on Global Warming you would expect that skeptics would Stilts: How to Tell Science from Bunk. A because that was their issue at that treat it the same way as something like guest speaker at The Amazing Meeting point. evolution or the connection between 8 in Las Vegas, he took time out from HIV and AIDS. In other the convention to discuss his work and QGlobal warming is unlike words they would look the approach that skeptics might take in any other topic I have seen at the scientific literature, promoting their own philosophy. in my years in the skeptical see the consensus and say movement as it creates such to the public, “Look, this Q Your publishers have sent me a copy passion from both sides. is the best understanding of your new book, Nonsense on Stilts. we have.” But science is Why does the cover have a picture of fish A Yes and the question fallible, it changes, but at walking on stilts? that fascinates me is “What the moment this is the best is the role of skeptics in understanding we have. A Because it’s so ridiculous. That is an mediating between science We do that with evolution, illustration from a book published on and the general public?” The with AIDS, with vaccines, nonsense in the 19th century and it really way I always understood the but some of us don’t captures the absurdity of some pseudo- was two levels. do that with climate change and it’s scientific notions. The book only came On one hand we have skeptics who interesting to ask why. What I suggest out a few weeks ago and I’m very pleased are very good at debunking things in the book is that there are a certain with it, it was a lot of fun to write. that are obviously well known to be number of skeptics who are committed bunk. So astrology, parapsychology, libertarians who are committed to a Q Just who is this book aimed at? ufology and all these other things. In particular political world view. fact we are the best to do it, better than Now, we all are. I have my A The idea is to write for the general scientists as they don’t have the time, the own political views; if you don’t it public, the average intelligent reader, background and the training. That’s why would make you a very strange and someone who has a college background James Randi or Penn and Teller are so disconnected individual. But the with an interest in science. There is no good as they know where the tricks are libertarian world view is such that it need to have a background in science or and how to uncover them. easily gravitates to a rejection of certain philosophy for that matter, although the So that is on one level. The second aspects of science, because they seem book does touch on the philosophy of thing I always thought the skeptic to understand that the acceptance of science. The idea is to reach a wide range movement was about was to promote climate change automatically leads of people. critical thinking and the understanding to certain kinds of measures that are of science. In others words, mediators heavily involved with government QHave you had good feedback so far? between scientists, who may not have intervention and since they do not like 14 The Skeptic September 10

difficult to get the general public away bubbles and people don’t like that, not from. One of them is that if you are even skeptics! I talk about Carl Sagan a skeptic you must also somehow be in my book because he got it exactly cynical, you are no fun and a naysayer right. Being a skeptic, being a candle and people expect you to take a negative in the dark, we have to realise that we position on anything. That is not what will always be surrounded by the dark skepticism means. It is reasoned analysis because the dark is easier. of the situation and proportioning your beliefs to the evidence. So if Q Yes, it’s easier to believe the ‘psychic’ the evidence is overwhelming, you reading is true than to study the should accept a certain notion at psychology. least provisionally. I remain perfectly convinced that the earth revolves A Being a skeptic can be depressing around the Sun; I am not a skeptic but there are good results we can about that. achieve. One of the things I stress in the book is that ‘bunk’ can kill you. If Over the last few years, people have Massimo Pigliucci in his garden Q you don’t believe there is a connection also expected us to be Moon landing between HIV and AIDS and don’t take skeptics and even 9/11 skeptics, the the right drugs, it can kill you. If you government intervention, that leads to ‘Truthers’ as they are called. don’t vaccinate your children ... a rejection of climate change. I don’t think that is a rational approach. A Again, the idea is that you’re not Q Yes, we have this problem in Now with the science itself, I supposed to deny anything because Australia. think there is very little the skeptics you’re a skeptic. You can make one of can participate with as they don’t have two opposite mistakes. You can be too A So it’s not just a matter of bursting the technical knowhow, they literally skeptical and therefore miss out on peoples’ bubbles. I think of skepticism don’t know what they are talking things that are true or you can be not as sort of a consumers’ advocacy. We about. You can always find scientists skeptical enough and accept things have also seen the case of the fake bomb who don’t agree with the consensus, that are clearly nonsense. The way to detectors in Iraq where skeptics went to you can find biologists who don’t minimise these errors is to get more the Department of Defense. support evolution so I’m sure you can information, more data. find climate scientists who don’t think Q It’s nice to know that the hard work climate change is happening. But, my Q How do you think the media, for we put in can pay off and it’s nice to understanding of the literature is that example, could better represent science to hear about. the majority of those who know what the general public? I mean, it’s not easy. they are talking about agree that the A I was a teacher and even now I best conclusion at the moment is that A Journalists by and large really want get emails after 10 years from students it is happening and at least in part to do a good job at educating the public telling me that I made a difference in human-caused. Given that, that’s what but they run up against some problems. their lives. But you know for every one we skeptics should accept because we do They are not trained in the specific email I get, I think there could be many not have the expertise to challenge that disciplines, they are general thinkers. more people who feel the same way conclusion. They are good at asking questions but just have not found my address or and writing things. They also have to thought to write. QIt’s interesting that people will deal with their own internal pressures approach the skeptics, the media for in their own businesses and sell their Note: Prof Pigliucci’s book, Nonsense example, and expect us to be global product. on Stilts: How to Tell Science from warming skeptics or deniers. Bunk, is available from http://tinyurl. Q It’s also a lot easier for a journalist com/2335j9y. A That is a result of the use of the to present a story on its face value like word ‘skeptic’. I love to be a skeptic, I’m “this woman saw a UFO”, rather than proud to be a skeptic and for me there do any investigation. They seem to be is an interesting connection between pandering to their audience. the word we use today and the classical About the interviewer: sense of skeptical philosophers. It’s a A There is an enormous emotional Richard Saunders is a great word and we should keep it. potential there that unfortunately the vice president of Australian Unfortunately, however, it does skeptics have a hard time tapping into Skeptics Inc and a presenter have some connotations that are because a lot of what we do is bursting on The Skeptic Zone podcast. 15 F e at u r e Skepticism Y I think Richard Hughes reports on the next generation of Australian skepticism.

ou might think it’s not easy being a by Elliot Birch, the YAS (as it is known) longer content with commenting from Yyoung Australian skeptic. has multiple ‘branches’ - online forums, the sidelines young skeptics are becoming It starts early. Growing up, we’re an open format blog, and a successful active participants in the political process, inevitably surrounded by uncritical podcast - and while it is aimed at young to the benefit of all involved. thought. For some, it comes directly Australians, it actively encourages Primarily this is being done by allying from our parents; paragons of New Age involvement from all sorts of people. (if only unofficially) with groups that quirk, or casual conspiracy theorists that For others, community is found in the have nothing to do with skepticism. We drive skeptical offspring insane with the comments section of the science blog live at a time where the overwhelming condescending presumption that a finely- Pharyngula, or in the online forums of scientific consensus is that climate change tuned baloney detector is “just a phase”’. the James Randi Educational Foundation. is a substantive issue that we need to deal Others of us (myself included) manage Of course, all this paints a picture with, yet a vocal population of deniers still to score a fairly skeptical upbringing. The of young skeptics as lonely children, refuse to accept this reality. Young skeptics son of a chemist and a geologist I was abandoned by the real world and forced (or ‘science-based environmentalists’ as instilled from kindergarten with a healthy to seek solace online. Nothing could be a friend of mine might call them) are distaste for all stripes of pseudoscience. further from the truth. In reality skeptics not only at the front lines of this issue The eventual realisation that some of tend to enjoy rich social lives both within in countering misinformation but are my peers had not been privileged with and without the skeptical movement that also leading the charge for swift action, the same upbringing was a shock to my are supplemented, not supplanted, by imploring political parties to understand system. People I had considered extremely participating on internet forums. the gravity of the situation and act before smart turned out to hold rather odd In fact, I suspect the situation is even it is too late. beliefs; top scoring students who were better than that. For many young people Young skeptics have also turned their creationists and the occasional biologist ‘skeptic’ is an unhelpful label - “Skeptical attention to questions of civil rights. Gay with a penchant for homeopathy. of what?” after all - and we therefore fail marriage is not a subject that many would But put all that aside; it’s not all that to recognise that we are surrounded by think amenable to skeptical examination, bad. In fact, in a very real sense, now is a rising generation of critical thinkers. yet a critical evaluation of the issue can the best time to be young in the skeptical They may not self-identify as such, but only come to one conclusion: That there community. the signs are unmistakable: opposition is no rational reason to disallow gay It’s been said that you can choose your to unproven medical treatment, an marriage while heterosexual marriage is friends but you can’t choose your family. increased interest in promoting and recognised as it is by the state. At the moment we’re living with the first communicating science, and a growing I say this not to disparage ‘older’ generation for which that may literally be rejection of mainstream religious dogma skeptics or in any way trivialise the true. The internet has changed the way all suggest that rationality is flourishing in important work they have done and we think about community, providing Generation Y. continue to do. The big spectres an invaluable sanctuary for young people This manifestation of ‘young looming over traditional skepticism who feel out of place. And in a world skepticism’ is a different beast to the at the moment seem to be the anti- that often prioritises unwavering respect traditional idea of scientific skepticism. vaccination lobby and creationism, for belief over critical evaluation, is it any Young skeptics are steering away from both of which have suffered recent wonder that skeptics can occasionally traditional skeptical topics - think setbacks due to the efforts of the feel marginalised in their everyday , UFOs and the Loch Ness skeptical movement. I wish instead to environment? Monster - towards more politically draw attention to one inescapable fact: One such community is the aptly sensitive issues. Far from the reactive that there is a new style of skepticism named Young Australian Skeptics (www. ‘debunking’ stereotype, young skepticism coming, inseparable from the youth youngausskeptics.com). Founded in 2008 is a predominantly proactive affair. No that promote it - and like it or not, 16 The Skeptic September 10

it’s here to stay. Ultimately, the skepticism of the University Skeptical, Atheist, Secular and Free Thinker groups young is heading in a radically different Skeptical Groups: Other Groups: direction to what many people would Macquarie University . University of NSW Atheist . Swinburne Uni Secular associate with the traditional skeptical Society [in formation] movement. Generally - and we all know Skeptics Society Society President: Duane Hamacher . Macquarie University . Victoria University Society how dangerous generalisations are - the Email: mqskeptics@gmail. Atheists League of Atheist Philosophy youth are steering the movement further com . University of Sydney Atheist [in formation] towards political and social issues. We Website: http:// Society [in formation] . University of Queensland Secular Freethinkers are devoting more time to problems macquarieskeptics.com . University of Sydney Secular . James Cook University that are perceived as actively harmful or Humanist Society Skeptical Monash . University of Technology Society of Atheist Philosophy discriminatory, and treating impending University Group (SMUG) Sydney Atheist Society . University of Tasmania apocalypses and ‘monsters of the [in formation] . Wollongong University Atheists [in formation] week’ as water-cooler curiosities to be Contact: Alastair Tait Secular Society . Adelaide University Godless Society discarded with a minimum of effort. Email: alastair.tait.maps@ . University of Western . University of WA Atheist Because, after all, no one believes in gmail.com Sydney — AUA Website: TBC . University of Newcastle Agnostic Society Bigfoot anymore. Right? . Atheist Society Griffith University . ANU League of Further information: Society for Skeptics and Extraordinary Atheists University About the author Freethinkers . University of Melbourne Alliance President: Jayson Cooke Secular Society (UMSS) Richard Hughes President: Jason Ball Email: Jayson.cooke@ . La Trobe University Secular is president of the Email: jasonball@ griffithuni.edu.au Society (LTUSS) freethoughtalliance.org.au University of Melbourne Website: http://gussf. . RMIT Secular Society Website: http:// Secular Society, and a wordpress.com/ . Deakin University Secular freethoughtalliance.org.au member of the Young Society [in formation] Australian Skeptics

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0317 F E AT U R E Education Reason toThink Peter Ellerton looks at deduction, induction and critical thinking ... and asks why we aren’t teaching it.

here isn’t an educational institution teachers with the inevitable results. Not Tin the world that doesn’t have, to say teachers are irrelevant, but you get somewhere in the glossy pages of its the idea. prospectus, the stated intent to produce So, what exactly is my beef? And critical thinkers, independent learners, what do I want to do about it? Let problem solvers and the like from the me go back to the words I used a few malleable minds of its students. moments ago – “explicitly teach the Now, ask them to point to the bits in skills of critical thinking”. There’s a fair their courses where this occurs, and you’re bit of stuff written about this, but it bound to get a rather vague answer that becomes pretty clear as you trawl the probably includes the terms “embedded literature that no-one has a succinct across the curriculum”, or “rigorous definition of what we mean by ‘critical academic standards”, or perhaps “holistic thinking’. It’s kind of like our definition approach to problem solving”. of a ‘funny’ joke - we all think we know It is remarkable how few educational one when we hear it, but it’s difficult institutions actively and explicitly teach to describe why it’s funny. Of course, the skills of critical thinking. academics being academics, we do To be sure, many have courses in end up with some very nice, holistic which students are encouraged to solve descriptors, but it’s hard to find a good, problems, or to view problems from simple working model for us educators a loftier perspective than that from and most of the public to use. which they were created, but does this I’d like to propose a cleaving of actually teach the general thinking skills of problem I suggest we need a skills into two solving, analysis and “ operationally evaluation? After curriculum that explicity different nearly 20 years of teaches reasoning as a groups. The first teaching in state could include and private schools, stand-alone topic.” dimensions of I have come to the our intellect sad conclusion that no, such courses such as those involved in emotional generally fall short of the mark. understanding, relationship I can hear my colleagues from the development, musical, mathematical strengths of their justifications and and humanities banging on abilities and such. And the second conclusions. They are the cluster of about how their subjects indirectly is a collection of mental skills and cognitive cogs and gears that help to develop these skills anyway; which of mechanisms relating to how we extend determine the likelihood of a proposition course, to some degree, they do. Science our knowledge from those things we being true or false. From global warming students do acquire skills in analysis presently know to those things we do to crop circles and from evolution to and evaluation through their work in not yet know, including here the notion psychic phenomena they empower you creating and testing hypotheses. History of what it means to ‘prove’ something to to tibi cogitate or think for yourself. students do learn to critically assess their be true. It’s not hard to see that this is the type sources and the motivations of those I will call this latter group of of thing that a sceptical, scientific world who created them. But there is also intellectual devices ‘reasoning tools’. They view would value and I suspect it is what some truth to the idea that students with are the things you need when developing most people would like to see emerge natural skills in these areas will gravitate and assessing another’s argument, from a critical thinking education. Yes, to such courses and impress their spotting the flaws and analysing the of course we need to extract meaning 18 The Skeptic September 10

I was quite struck of the conclusion, are called deductively by how the three valid. Deductive arguments have the strands of the course, flavour of certainty about them. If you to deductive logic, think Fred is not green, but still accept Reason Think critical thinking and the premises, then you are wrong. philosophy, manage Consider another deductively valid to get across just argument from antiquity: about every thinking • Premise 1: All men are mortal skill I have come to • Premise 2: Socrates is a man believe is essential Conclusion: Socrates is mortal. Now for good citizenship. this, unlike the previous example, has Not only that, but the attractive quality of having true state-wide testing premises. Deductively valid arguments shows these students with true premises are said to be sound performing at the very arguments, and these are the strongest highest level across all of all possible justifications for a scientific, numeracy conclusion. Mathematics is defined by and literacy arenas. deduction, and the ‘proofs’ derived by As they come from mathematicians are deductively sound both humanities and proofs. Of course, the premises can be science backgrounds many and complex and the path to the and are often unaware conclusion tortuous, but the logical in choosing it of the pathway is there and the arguments exact nature of the well-substantiated. subject, there may be It is tempting, however, to borrow the some justification in steely nature of deductive arguments for labelling the subject less than rigorous usage. matter itself as the Consider now the argument: cause of this worthy • Premise 1: Homosexuality is effect. unnatural So, to the heart • Premise 2: Unnatural things are of the matter: let morally wrong me outline what I Conclusion: Homosexuality is morally think these skills are. wrong. Notice the enticing deductive Firstly, we need to certainty. Of course, a quick scan of the recognise that there premise shows that while the statement are two kinds of is deductively valid (if the premises are reasoning: deductive true the conclusion is true) it is unsound, and inductive. Much with highly questionable premises. An confusion and disquiet ignorance of biology or a belief that is created by the homosexuality is a choice, might lead untidy application of you to accept that homosexuality is one in the place of the unnatural, but to believe that unnatural from texts, develop a high level of visual other. Let’s look at deductive reasoning things are wrong damns ball-point pens, literacy, appreciate the wide-ranging and how it should be used. polyester and brain surgery to the scrap impact of science on our society and Consider the following two statements: heap. This is a weak premise, and hence place our own experience of life in • Premise 1: All gronks are green the argument falls. the context of our surroundings, but • Premise 2: Fred is a gronk It’s worth teaching the students at this these can be done, and directly so, We could all reasonably draw the point about the notion of the hidden through the usual suite of subjects. I’m conclusion, although in ignorance of premise. This is where the unpalatable, suggesting we need a curriculum that what a gronk actually is, that Fred is less believable or blatantly wrong explicitly (and there’s that word again) green. The first two statements are the premise is left out. I might start with the teaches reasoning as a stand-alone topic. premises, or axioms, of our argument. “homosexuality is unnatural” premise As it happens, after a career of Our conclusion that Fred is green is and jump straight to the conclusion teaching mathematics and science, I a guaranteed outcome if the premises that homosexuality is wrong. Less agile now teach a subject in Queensland are true. Such arguments, in which the minds may then be more easily swayed schools called Philosophy and Reason. truth of the premise implies the truth by the argument, not having to accept 19 F E AT U R E Education

future is either generalisation or analogy programs of critical thinking. Reason (although in truth, it’s often a complex I would add only two more topics Continued... combination of both). to this to fulfil my original intention to Think This is sometimes a difficult of exploring the skills of knowledge proposition to accept. Surely, life is more acquisition and of explicating these that unnatural things are wrong, on top complex than that. Well, yes, but who reasoning tools. of the weak first premise. said generalisations and analogies had to One is an explanation of the The study of deduction permits us be simple? Consider a complex question characteristics of a good hypothesis, to understand and use in a rigorous such as “Will the Chinese economy including notions such as Ockham’s manner such terms as contradiction, recover at the same rate as the American Razor and Popper’s falsifiability, and tautology, implication, necessary and/or economy from the current economic the other is a catalogue of errors of sufficient conditions, and other terms troubles?” Well, the answer is a function reasoning which commonly accompany in technical and common use, and of how analogous the two economies shonky arguments and assertions. creates a consistent and meticulous are. How about the likelihood of Together, these form a formidable language for careful and precise analysis. intelligent life elsewhere in the universe? scalpel for the dissection of suspect It sounds like if we could all just learn We could generalise from the several claims from the world of pseudoscience, deductive logic, we wouldn’t have any disparate and independently evolved psychics, homeopathy and young earth disagreements at all. The thing is, with intelligences on earth (octopuses, creationism. deductive logic, just as when you solve crows, humans) that a certain level of As an aside, and in closing, to a Sudoku puzzle, you really are simply development is indeed likely. properly do critical thinking we must uncovering what was the only possible The periodic table of the elements, also be aware of the thing with which we outcome. Most mathematics is about so ingrained into the consciousness of think, that is, our brain and its modes discovering the correct solution to many school students, is a triumph of of operation. A little confirmation bias a problem, and that’s just the thing: analogy and generalisation. Elements in here, a bit of change blindness there deduction really can’t take us beyond the same column are analogous to each - fruits of another tree, to be sure, but the information contained within the other (with similar properties for similar it all hangs comfortably and cohesively premises, just tease out information that reasons) while generalisations across together. may not have been obvious at the start. rows and down columns allowed for the So there you go. Critical thinking If we really want to think where no-one placement of gaps which were eventually shot from the hip. It’s not rocket has thought before, we need induction. filled in elegant and inevitable sequence science and it doesn’t take a lot to Induction goes beyond the premises. of future discoveries. resource a course like this. As one of the It deals with the future and with Now, the characteristics of what cheapest, demonstrably beneficial and possibilities and probabilities, it’s how we makes a good analogy or generalisation most demanded curriculum elements, figure out what stars are made of, how are pretty clear and can be explicitly perhaps we may yet see critical thinking economies operate and why gronks are taught. Also, within the analysis take up its proper place on the national green. It’s often described as reasoning of an analogy we see the evaluative stage, alongside numeracy and literacy. that is not deductive, as it’s sometimes skills of comparing and contrasting; Then again, this argument is over 2000 seen as easier to define by what it is not, in generalisation we see contextual years old. I wonder what we’ve been rather than by what it is, but in fact considerations. The list of these subset waiting for? . we can make an excellent and effective skills is long and valuable. categorisation of induction into two Deduction and induction provide About the author: simple kinds: analogy and generalisation. the overall architecture of reason, rarely Peter Ellerton is a teacher and winner of the 2008 Yes, all the reasoning that extends our articulated in syllabuses but supplying Australian Skeptics Prize for Critical Thinking. This knowledge into the unknown or into the a very useful framework for developing article was first presented on ABC’s Ockham’s Razor.

The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe is a weekly Science podcast talkshow discussing the latest news and topics from the world of the paranormal, fringe science, and controversial claims from a scientific point of view.

www.the skepticsguide.org 20 PUZZLES The Skeptic September 10

Across Brain testers 1. Is it wan kids who oppose intelligent design? (7)) cryptic crossword no 7 5. Top grain is just a strange change of mood. (7) 8. Hey presto, it’s a rotter surrounded by confused 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Arabs. (11) 9. An attempt made a while back. (3) 10. Ex-corporal undergoes awards for someone else’s 8 9 work. (4) 12. An honour you allow to wear around your neck. (6) 10 11 12 13 13. Mainly a parasitic spasm. (3) 14 15. Godwin’s looking for water. (7) 16. I fuss about mystics. (5) 15 16 19. Cheops’ original founder of a Great Pyramid 17 18 scheme. (5) 19 20 20. Necromancer finds love within himself. (7) 21 22 23. Measure the pressure in a mystical force. (3) 24. Repeat after me – the standard is rubbish! (6) 23 24 25 25. Pakistani sounds like a mistake of an event. (4) 26 27 Sounds like it could be won over a particle. (3) 27 28 29 28. Limit my rota of life everlasting. (11) 30. Speak but do not melodiate aphorisms. (7) 31. I’m not real hip to a congenital cleft. (7) 30 31

Tim Mendham + Steve Roberts Down 1. Tedious worm. (6) Dr BOB’S BRAIN BUSTERS 2. Immature state turns to conflict. (3) 3. Mark of Cain wiped by a South American. 1. What was the song on the flip-side of the Pink Floyd’s 4. & 18. The gods had Roman Moor incarcerated in first single originally called? naughty places. (5,3,8) 2. Among Rolling Stone magazine’s 500 Greatest Albums 5. Secret doctrine an ingredient of Scab à la Mode. of All Time, how many albums were produced in non- 6. Less plasma than ghostlike. (10) English speaking countries? 7. Have sex with 13 across, or add someone to rid you of ghosts. (8) 3. What 7-letter words starting with SUB and CON are 9. A terrific form for a craftsman. (9) mathematically linked to the word DEWFALL (if I 11 Can see no start to the uprising – it must be gradual give you the complete words the #1 Google result is the change. (9) answer) 14. Proposition taken from granted that Mum went to heaven. (10) 4. Who said, and on what occasion: “Such things should 17. The sick step for investigatory users of the scientific not happen in wartime; have you Germans no sense of method. (8) honour left at all?” 18. See 4 down. 5. How many miles to the gallon — no, how many feet to 21. Small time crook heads in various directions for the pound (of coal) did the Titanic burn (before it hit any illegal acts. (6) icebergs)? 22. Roll bark into a mythical beast. (6) 26. A reasonable event. (4) Answers on page 62 29. I will shortly be sick. (3) 0321 F E AT U R E Medicine

theAutism number’s up? Eran Segev and Bob Buckley go head-to-meta- phorical-head over attitudes to the growth in autism rates – better data or more cases?

n the 13th of May I gave a That is not to say there is no Otalk about autism in Canberra. real growth in incidence, just The title of my talk was intentionally that it’s not the main cause of provocative (“From skepticism about the increased diagnosis rate. autism to capital-S Skepticism”) so it Of course, you are correct was not surprising to find Bob Buckley, that the diagnostic criteria convenor of Autism Aspergers Advocacy have not changed, but two Australia (A4), in the audience. During things that appear to have the talk, I suggested that the growth in changed are the willingness autism rates is largely due to broader by doctors to assign the application of diagnostic criteria and label and the awareness by more awareness among educators and parents and educators of carers. In the Q&A session that followed the conditions and to the the talk, Bob claimed that the growth benefits of diagnosis (ie funding and that when gut problems are reduced or was actually real. Bob and I also had a treatment options). There are quite a few “cured” in a child/person with ASD, short discussion later in the evening, so researchers and doctors who think that their autistic behaviour reduces. Some a couple of weeks later I wrote to him, these are the main causes for the rise. people will interpret this as fixing their which triggered an email discussion that Anyway, I’d be interested to hear autism. I see that differently. went on for two months. more comments. As you may imagine, For my part, I felt a GFCF diet was That email discussion is reprinted getting my facts right is very important worth trying. It is low risk, low cost, here with Bob Buckley’s permission. to me. low effort ... why not try it. We put our son on a GFCF diet for an extended Eran Segev: Thank you for attending Bob Buckley: Thanks for sending this. period. Some people find this difficult; my talk in Canberra a couple of weeks I appreciate that autism/ASD is just I found it relatively simple to do. (I am ago and thanks for your insightful one issue among many for skeptics and responsible for food provision in our comments during Q&A and afterwards. that you have a personal interest. For household.) I don’t think the GFCF diet I have already looked into a couple of me, autism/ASD is a primary focus. did much for our son, though he did things you have mentioned, and will That is the role I am in. have some gut problems as a younger probably change my presentation to In relation to lactose vs casein, my child (his gut problems were ignored mention casein – after I do a bit more understanding is that the hypothesis completely by the health sector). research into the prevalence of the belief is around digestion and biochemistry I tend to talk about the prevalence that it causes autism. (not my fields at all). It seems that there of autism/ASD diagnoses rather than I found surprisingly little credible is enough credibility to this hypothesis the “incidence of autism”. I don’t know information regarding the growth in for people like John Wray to research what you expect in this area or what incidence of autism, but the numbers leaky guts. you mean when you write “the growth (including, but not limited to, the My own experience and observation in diagnosis is far above any potential growth in incidence in adults) suggest is that quite a few children with autism growth in actual incidence”. that the growth in diagnosis is far above have comorbid gut problems that My first comment is that if we any potential growth in actual incidence. clinicians often just ignore. I am aware accept the assumption that autism/ 22 The Skeptic September 10

NOS and is unclear about is quite possible to provide a GFCF any diagnoses of Atypical diet that is rich and full, but it is also Autism (ICD-10 category). possible to cause a lot of harm if the I presented an child is a picky eater to begin with, as analysis of a much more is often the case with ASD. In general, comprehensive extract of I prefer the evidence-based approach to the same population data treatment, which is why I included diets at APAC’09. I have several in my talk. other data sources that confirm these findings Bob Buckley: In relation to my son’s theAutism number’s up? (state level data from diet, ten years ago there was no evidence SA, WA and QLD, as either for or against GFCF diet (and well as from FaHCSIA’s I don’t think that has improved much National Autism Advisor’s since then). In those circumstances, program). Eric Fombonne choices revolve around risk assessment was at APAC ‘09. [Among and costs. My assessment suggested other qualifications, that there was very little risk or cost. Fombonne directs the An experiment or “action research” was child psychiatry division completely warranted. at McGill University in Have you read Schneider’s The Patient Canada and was appointed from Hell? It gives crucial insights into to a special National so called ‘evidence-based medicine’. Institute of Health (NIH) Treating autism/ASD is still very like advisory board for autism his experience except getting access to research – Ed.] We talked credible experts is far more difficult that about this information. He it was in his experience with cancer. seemed impressed with the Also read the story of Helicobacter quality of these data. pylori - it shows how wrong so called I think there is more ‘evidence-based medicine’ is sometimes, awareness of autism/ASD especially in relation to the gut. and that helps increase Especially the story of Dr Likoudis ASD is life-long (and in this country, diagnosis rates. But I feel greater who couldn’t convince the medical very few children have access to any awareness is just part of the story. I establishment of the day that his intervention that has been shown to think the data indicate there is more treatment was sound. In fact, he was make a difference) then incidence and going on but I don’t have time to go punished for using an unconventional prevalence are closely related. Prevalence into all the additional information now. therapy. Frankly, the medical is useful as it indicates the level of Autism/ASD prevalence in adults is establishment got it horribly wrong that service need (which is my focus). a whole different ball game. time. In terms of data, there is well I am also interested in facts and My son was born with tricuspid known material from both the UK and about trying to do better for people atresia. His treatment, prescribed by USA showing prevalence has risen to with ASD using the best available mainstream medicine, was not at all average over 1 in 100 among children, evidence and analysis. evidence-based. Fortunately, it was though in the USA (as in Australia) the successful (so far). prevalence varies on political boundaries Eran Segev: Scientists may not That time they (this feature of prevalence data is not Thanks for all “ (we?) got it right. unique to autism/ASD). Diagnosis rates the information. always change quickly My family among adults are lower though a recent One comment enough, but ultimately used anica, honey, study in the UK suggests that when you regarding diet: to callendula, etc for go and look, a similar results can be me, the important evidence trumps dogma ” years to treat a found for adults. thing to note range of injuries We have some very interesting data was that there is no scientific evidence and illnesses, much to the amusement in Australia. You may have seen the that it works or that there is a link of some of our medical friends. Some Australian report that reported as 1 between diet and autism. “No scientific of these now have a solid evidence base in 160 children. It used population evidence” does not necessarily mean but most doctors prefer to prescribe data for Australia not a survey, but “not true”, but if it’s something that has far more expensive drugs (some with it is only for autistic and Asperger’s been studied a bit, then the likelihood weaker evidence bases). disorders. It does not include PDD- that it is true is lower. Obviously, it Most of the medical profession does 23 F E AT U R E Medicine

accepted, as were many other ideas that Patient from Hell. I think it says a Autism - the took a while to be accepted. This is the lot about medical practitioners, but distinguishing factor between quackery remember that Schneider is a scientist numbers up? and medicine; naturopaths, homeopaths and he forced his doctors to use science, Continued... and chiropractors are not in the habit not work against it. Without scientific of changing their practice in the face medicine, Schneider would be dead. To not understand evidence relating to of evidence. Scientists may not always assume that a lay person knows more placebos. The misuse of placebo-related change quickly enough or easily enough, than doctors based on some Googling or evidence fatally damages the reputation but ultimately evidence trumps dogma. intuition – which is what a lot of people of so much modern medical practice. I referred to that in my Ockham’s Razor think – is unwarranted. The challenge for parents is to pick talk; if you haven’t heard it, I specifically winners from the treatment options on mentioned Warren and Marshall. Bob Buckley: I don’t think the author offer. Too often the evidence base in The risk of using your own of the item in the magazine on placebo the context of autism/ASD is utterly judgement over a doctor’s is that your effect has read (or maybe understood) inadequate. Too much of what ‘health sample is very small and you have no the literature on the subject. My professionals’ tell us is complete bullshit. real means of judging cause and effect. understanding is that the placebo has I question whether ‘health professionals’ This kind of thinking is what leads many a measurable effect in many instances. hold the moral high ground. Given to think that vaccines cause autism or It cannot be dismissed in the way the what I now know, I’ll back my other disorders – because they feel that article suggests. judgement ahead of advice from ‘health that’s what did it for their children, but So when a clinical trial finds that professionals’, especially most ASD feeling has nothing to do with it, and substance X has no more effect than a clinicians. And I am conscious of how that two things happen together says sugar pill or some inactive agent, but little I know. nothing at all about cause and effect. both show some effect, then it is not We should be skeptical of quackery. In the case you described, you took ethical to provide patients with neither. People should be aware of how much a calculated risk as a diet was unlikely If the sugar pill has fewer side effects, of mainstream medical practice is really to cause any harm and you thought it then the best treatment is the sugar pill. quackery. I think skepticism should might help. I have no problem with It is not appropriate to give patients challenge all approaches. that, even in principle. My concern is nothing as the patient misses out on a Often, the only treatments that work when people make their own judgement scientifically measured benefit. are ones you believe in and belief itself is in cases where there is contrary evidence You say you do not want your doctor enough is many cases. Sometime belief and a real risk (such as with vaccines). to deceive you over matters like this. is the only thing that works. Should we Placebo is a complex issue (which But you cannot assume everyone feels as deny people a cure is such cases? I advise was covered in detail in The Skeptic you do on such an issue. caution. magazine, Volume 28 number 1). Besides, the doctor could say quite I am not sure what you are basing accurately “take this ... it will probably Eran Segev: I agree with a lot of your statement that doctors do not make you feel better”. If you prefer, he what you say, though I think you are understand placebo, but even if we could say “I can give you a placebo. It conflating the actions of specific doctors assume you are correct, there are serious will probably make you feel better” and with the state of medical evidence, and I ethical questions around the deliberate the effect may be reduced (statistically think that’s unwarranted. Most doctors use of placebo. This is particularly speaking). would admit that clinical practice is important as the placebo effect declines I think the point of Schneider’s often as much an art as it is a science, with the level of subjectivity. Contrary book is that the existence of ‘scientific and will apply ‘clinical judgement’ to to what you say, placebo is not a cure, medicine’ is clearly not enough, and guide their actions, based on their own as Dr Brookman explains in the article that medical practice too often does not experience. This is simply the result of I mentioned. I would hope my doctor use, is not informed by or acts contrary the fact that there are still significant never lies to me in order to gain the to the science it has available. gaps in our knowledge in so many areas placebo effect, as I see collaboration as I think the medical system also needs of human health. Additionally, many the best way to achieve health goals, skeptical scrutiny. doctors are not informed about the best not deception. My doctors never make evidence. And finally, new information decisions for me – we make decisions Eran Segev : What you are claiming often takes time to make it into the together – but I certainly rely on their about placebo (ie that it is a real mainstream. experience and knowledge, without therapeutic effect) was believed for The important point, however – and assuming that they know everything. many years by most medical that is where you and I part – is that Good doctors will actually say “I don’t professionals, but since the early scientific medicine (and science in know” or “we don’t know” readily. The 2000s this has been shown several general) are self-correcting. That’s why challenge is to find those doctors. times to be incorrect, including in a the H Pylori hypothesis was eventually And finally: yes, I have readThe Cochrane review which you can find 24 The Skeptic September 10

be more practised at making medical assessments, usually there comes a “ I suggest we should point where specific subject knowledge not be over-critical overtakes any such experience. Of course, parents should consider any of those whose faith input from medical practitioners, but improves their perceived they should also be aware that the well-being. input may be based on limited (and/ ” or erroneous/outdated) knowledge, experience and understanding of autism/ASD. We still get reports of at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ doctors advising parents of children pubmed/15266510. later diagnosed with autism/ASD I accept your point about some to “wait and see” (delay diagnostic people not sharing my view on being assessment). I know the best/appropriate deceived by their doctor, but the advice is to have a child assessed for question is then “who’s to decide?” any developmental delay as soon as Should doctors be allowed to decide possible, which opens the possibility for themselves? Let’s say the patient of accessing early intervention which agrees in principle, does this apply in everyone says improves outcomes (when every case, for that patient? These are delivered with sufficient intensity, skill rhetorical questions, of course, but they and endurance, ie not in Australia’s highlight the ethical difficulties that are by a report that finds self-talk of the ‘universal’ health system). involved in providing a treatment that form “I am taking something that may In relation to Schneider’s The Patient the doctor knows lack evidence. help my depression” is not beneficial. from Hell, the existence/possibility And of course I wholeheartedly And clinical outcomes are not the only of ‘scientific medicine’ has limited agree with you that doctors often act measures of improvement, I prefer to relevance (or benefit) when the medical against the science and that the medical look more widely and include perceived service system does not apply it. My system should be looked at with well-being. Many humans fall back on own experience was that it took the scepticism. The point is that scepticism faith and belief, especially when their existence of a matter over 10 years about medical systems should not be Governments and health systems refuse in the ACT Discrimination Tribunal confused with un-sceptical acceptance (on ‘economic’ grounds) to provide to get (belatedly) any evidence-based of alternatives. essential treatment and rehabilitation intervention for my son’s autism/ASD. with established scientific evidence as is As in Schneider’s case, the level of Bob Buckley: Thanks again for your the case in Australia with autism/ASD. expertise and advocacy needed was interest. Also, I expect approaches to autism beyond what most families can be I did not intend to suggest a placebo fall in the category of ‘continuous reasonably expected to have. has “a real therapeutic effect”. That is outcomes’. The report says “We found On the other hand, why should not what my argument is about. an overall effect of placebo treatments in people not use faith and belief where We need to be careful interpreting 118 trials with continuous outcomes”. I it delivers outcomes just as good as the ‘evidence’. The Cochrane review you interpret this differently to the way you health services they are provided with, refer to says: (and your fellow Skeptic) seem to read and is cheaper and more accessible? “There was no statistically significant it. Why should some people not choose/ effect of placebo interventions in the I am also aware of numerous reports prefer faith and belief where medical four clinical conditions investigated of autism/ASD trials that report science offers no clinical benefit (or in three trials or more: pain, nausea, reduced stress and increased resilience where they are denied access to science- smoking, and depression, but (measurable benefits) among parents based interventions) and through these confidence intervals were wide. We even when the trial outcomes showed other means they perceive gains in their found an overall effect of placebo no detectable benefit for a child with overall psychological well-being? treatments in 118 trials with continuous autism/ASD. While some of us are less responsive outcomes (7453 patients), standardised In relation to doctors, I did not as believers, I suggest we should not mean difference (SMD) -0.24 (95% CI suggest that parents know more about be over-critical of those whose faith -0.31 to -0.17).” health than doctors generally. I do improves their perceived well-being. I I am no expert in depression, however suggest many parents know more about recognise both sides of the argument are I understand that positive self-talk is autism/ASD than their doctor does needed, so scepticism is crucial, and I widely believed to have a “statistically within a relatively short time after their see a lot of middle ground between the significant effect” so I am surprised child’s diagnosis. While their doctor may extreme positions. 25 F E AT U R E Medicine

you feel positive about our exchange; some serious questions which I do not Autism - the that is certainly the way I intended it, believe you’ve addressed, and without though too often email exchanges go addressing those allowing professionals numbers up? awry. to use placebo is simply too risky in my Continued... I would be delighted for our opinion. What may be very beneficial exchange to be made public. But, for one patient could be causing another Bob Buckley: You may be interested for me, I am currently writing a in an update to your reference ... see comprehensive submission on “Long- http://mrw.interscience.wiley.com/ term care and support for people with cochrane/clsysrev/articles/CD003974/ ASD” for the Productivity Commission pdf_fs.html. and I have to write journal articles on It says: “Larger effects of placebo the prevalence (or at least the diagnosis were also found in trials that did not rates) for ASD in Australia and its states/ inform patients about the possible territories ASAP. So it will be a while placebo intervention” and the authors’ before I could find time to turn our conclusions: “We did not find that exchange into something suitable for placebo interventions have important public consumption. Were it to happen clinical effects in general. However, in though, we could put it in both The certain settings placebo interventions can influence patient-reported patient to be deprived of treatment that outcomes, especially pain and nausea, works, and I doubt you would consent though it is difficult to distinguish to decisions being made arbitrarily patient-reported effects of placebo from about who gets a specific treatment and biased reporting. The effect on pain who doesn’t. Evidence is what removes varied, even among trials with low risk the arbitrariness from the decision, and of bias, from negligible to clinically while science – and scientific medicine important. Variations in the effect in particular – is not perfect, it’s been of placebo were partly explained by shown to make progress over time and variations in how trials were conducted in any case is the best we have. and how patients were informed.” There are several problems with using So in relation to autism/ASD, where Skeptic magazine and the A4 Update. evidence-free treatments (which you our governments choose to not provide Yes, I think we largely agree on basic call “faith and belief”), with the most appropriate clinical interventions, the facts and evidence. However, we view obvious one being that it is unlikely issue is whether to provide a placebo the evidence from different perspective to do more than make people feel and whether to inform parents/ and we have different responses to it. I good; in other words, it is not really a families/carers that they are/maybe expect some people would be interested treatment. The result may very often getting a placebo (or ‘treatment’ whose in or could learn from the differences in be that the search for an effective effect cannot be distinguished from a our responses. treatment is discarded. It should be placebo). Of course, some of them will noted that the placebo effect and feeling work it out for themselves. Eran Segev: The findings about of empowerment are equal contributors depression are very important precisely to evidence-based and non-evidence- Eran Segev: Thanks, Bob. I will digest because many, like you, believe that based treatments, with the differentiator both your messages over the coming positive self-talk can affect depression, being the actual effect of the treatment; days and get back to you. whereas this review suggests otherwise. I that’s why the gold standard in clinical I am enjoying this exchange very do not suggest that that’s the final word research is a randomised, placebo much, and was wondering whether on the topic, but scientific investigations controlled, double blind trial. By using you’d be willing to make it public in often yield surprising results, and that is evidence-based treatments you are not some form or another. Perhaps on the where their value lies. As with H. Pylori giving up on the placebo effect. pages of The Skeptic magazine? I don’t and stomach ulcers, what we believe to Finally, regarding doctors versus think there is a real debate here, as we be true may not necessarily be so, and parents: I completely agree that it is seem to agree on the essentials and while I do not suggest we turn things possible – perhaps even likely – that mostly look at fine details, but it might around based on one study, there comes the parents of a child with a serious be interesting to others nevertheless as a point where you might have to agree or chronic condition would know we delve deeper into some issues. that prevailing notions have been wrong more than their GP about the specific Let me know what you think. and it’s time to discard them. condition their child is diagnosed with. As I’ve said in the past, the problem However, I think this is unlikely to Bob Buckley: I am really pleased that with using placebo as a treatment raises happen “within a relatively short time 26 The Skeptic September 10

after their child’s diagnosis”, but of that they would choose evidence-based advice at all). course that depends on the diagnosis, treatment. I am happy for this discussion to and on the GP. I emphasise GP because Most people do not choose to finish and for you to compile it into an this is very unlikely to be true when substitute ‘evidence-free’ options for article. Thank you for your interest and it comes to specialists. Parents may be evidence-based autism treatments. That attention to the subject. able to offer a specialist insight into the is not the choice they are given. Instead, Regards issues specific to their child, but very they have to choose between ‘evidence- Bob Buckley . few parents have the ability to become free’ options, options with evidence acquainted with the knowledge of a of no/minimal effect (including specialist, let alone assess the merit of partial application of evidence-based Editor’s note: This article is a verbatim treatments impartially. treatments and placebos) and no version of the discussion between Segev I think it would be good to end this treatment at all. and Buckley. The only excisions are some debate. I expect this to be my final Most people choose to do something. background comments on completing message for the purpose of publication. I did, even though I knew what I responses and references to graphs, plus Could you respond to it, while chose would (and could) not be what minor changes for style. attempting not to raise new questions? my child needed. It is Government I will then compile it into one article funding/policy, not my choice, that About the correspondents: which I’ll send to you for review. meant my son was “deprived of Eran Segev is president of Australian Skeptics Inc. Thanks for engaging in this debate – treatment that works” (or was most Bob Buckley is convenor of Autism Aspergers it has been enlightening and interesting. likely to work). Advocacy Australia (A4). After being forced to choose a less Bob Buckley: As I previously than ideal option, most parents/families indicated, my focus is on autism will still want to believe what they spectrum disorders. chose has some effect, or is the best they Since governments in Australia refuse can do for their child. And in relation to fund/provide essential treatment for to autism, families usually base their autism/ASD in the form of evidence- choices on better information than their based (early) intervention, families doctor/GP is basing his/her autism- are faced with difficult choices about related advice on (if their GP gives any what they can do for their child. Few families can afford the 20 hours per week of evidence-based treatment that their child needs (based on advice from the Commonwealth Health Department). Even those who can afford this treatment for their child will have difficulty finding anyone to treat their child since so few people have the required training and experience. So families have to choose - should they try things that lack evidence or should they do nothing? They cannot accept advice from a doctor/GP who tells them “put the child in an institution and get on with your life”. (Yes, some doctors still give this advice today; advice that is contrary to evidence and that is not practical advice since governments closed the institutions years ago.) My point is that families are not making a choice between evidence- based practice/treatment and other alternatives. Where such a choice available, the 1000 Hours campaign (see http://www.1000hours.com.au/) with over 24,000 registrants showed most people have already indicated 27 r e g u l a r s

The cycle of life AMARA’S LAW OF TECHNOLOGY Technology’s impact – the future – Roy Amara was a researcher, scientist and past president of the Institute for the Future extraterrestrials - salvation. And so it goes, (IFTF). Born in Boston in 1925, he spent 18 years the almost inevitable realisation that all at the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) where he worked on interactive computing, decision analysis and knowledge is connected & connectable. the development of the ERMA computer. He worked closely with computing pioneer Douglas Engelbart who, among other things, invented the computer mouse. Amara ALIEN SAVIOURS held a BSc in management, an MS in the arts and sciences, and a PhD in systems engineering. He left SRI to become UFO religion is an informal president for the long-term-future think tank, the IFTF. term used to describe a religion that He died in 2007. He is possibly best known for the equates extraterrestrials with gods or quotation: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a other semi-divine beings and that humanity technology in the short run and underestimate either currently is, or eventually will become, the effect in the long run”, which is part of a pre-existing extraterrestrial civilisation. sometimes known as Amara’s Law. Adherents believe that the arrival or rediscovery of alien civilisations and spirituality will enable humans to overcome their current ecological, spiritual and social problems. UFO religions have predominantly developed in technologically advanced societies, which is probably why UFO religionists believe that superior alien technology will resolve major planet-threatening issues of hatred, war, bigotry and poverty which are What goes around ... said to be resolvable through the use of superior (and underestimated?) alien technology. EVANS’ DISAPPEARING UFOs President Gerald Ford: “We owe IDH holds that UFOs are not spacecraft, but it to the people to establish devices that travel between different realities. One advantage of IDH proffered by Hilary Evans, British pictorial credibility regarding UFOs, and archivist, author, and researcher into paranormal phenomena, is its produce the greatest possible ability to explain the ability of UFOs to appear and disappear from enlightenment of the subject.” sight and radar. This is explained as the UFO entering and leaving our dimension. Moreover, if the other dimension is more advanced than ours, or is our own future, this would explain the UFOs’ tendency to represent near future technologies (airships in the 1890s, rockets and supersonic travel in the 1940s, etc). IDH has been a causative factor in establishing UFO religion.

28 The Skeptic September 10

AMARA’S COLLEAGUES The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is a Palo Alto, California-based think tank established in 1968 as a spin-off from the RAND Corporation, to help organisations plan for the long-term future. IFTF was founded by Paul Baran, an early internet pioneer. During the presidency of Roy Amara (1969- 1991), the Institute conducted some of the earliest studies on the impact of the Arpanet on scientific research, and was notable for its research on groupware. Today, the Institute maintains research programs on the President Harry S. Truman: futures of technology, health and organisations. The Institute has attracted several notable researchers in this period, “I can assure you that flying including astrophysicist and saucers - given that they computer scientist exist - are not constructed Jacques Vallée. by any power on Earth.”

VALLEE’S BELIEFS Jacques Fabrice Vallée (born September 24, 1939) is a French- born venture capitalist, computer scientist, author and former astronomer. (He should not be confused with the Canadian astronomer Jacques Paul Vallée.) In mainstream science, Vallée is notable for co- developing the first computerised mapping of Mars for NASA and for his work at SRI International in creating goes around ... Arpanet, a precursor to the modern internet. Vallée is What also an important figure in the study of unidentified flying objects (UFOs), first noted for his defence of the scientific legitimacy of the extraterrestrial THE EXTRATERRESTRIAL ‘REALITY’ hypothesis and later for promoting the The interdimensional hypothesis (IDH or interdimensional hypothesis. IH), also called the extradimensional hypothesis (EDH), is a theory advanced by Vallée that UFOs and related events involve visitations from other ‘realities’ or ‘dimensions’ that coexist separately alongside our own. It is an alternative to the extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH). President Jimmy Carter: IDH also holds that UFOs are “I don’t laugh at people a modern manifestation of a phenomenon that has occurred any more when they say throughout recorded human they’ve seen UFOs. ... I’ve history, which in prior ages were seen one myself. ascribed to mythological or supernatural creatures. Sources: Wikipedia, www.stealthskater.com/Documents/Quotes_1.pdf

29 A R T I C L E Belief Stars in their Eyes Caitlin Brain and Dr Krissy Wilson investigate belief in astrology: cosmic collusion or cognitive confusion?

espite scientific evidence that and affects how they view Drejects astrological influence the situation and attribute as valid predictors of future events responsibility (Shepperd, or human personality, global belief Malone & Sweeny, 2008). in astrology appears to be on the According to the theory, a increase. How can we account for such person will take credit for widespread and unrelenting faith in successes, and blame failures what is considered by skeptics to be on external or situational pseudoscientific piffle? Do astrologers factors. simply tell us what we want to hear Research investigating or is there something more cerebral belief in astrology has going on? Is astrology a case of cosmic consistently shown that collusion or cognitive confusion? people tend to accept vague This article reviews some of the astrological predictions of myriad psychological, motivational and personality as being about emotional reasons as to why people themselves (eg French et al., believe in astrology and reports findings 1991; Hamilton, 2001). from a recent study that supports the This tendency, known as view that belief in astrology may act as a the Barnum Effect, occurs buffer against the rigours of modern life. regardless of the source of One focus of attention that has information (eg astrology, emerged in recent years is to examine palm reading) or credibility the role of cognitive factors involved in of that source, and is belief, in particular the significance of independent of factors such cognitive biases. These biases explain as psychological knowledge, the phenomenon of making errors in gender and age (Rosen, 1975; Dmitruk, when presented with a false astrological judgement based on faulty information Collins & Clinger, 1973). profile, both groups will moderately processing. They are apparent in all areas Forer (1949) presented an validate the profile’s description of of human experience and are examples unsuspecting group of individuals with themselves (Rogers & Soule). of errors of perception and memory that an apparent personality profile for each While research has shown that occur as the brain processes information individual. He asked each participant western astrological predictions of from the world around it. to rate how well the measure revealed personality are inadequate in predicting Of particular interest to belief in personality (0 = poor-5= perfect), how personality, research has not yet astrology are confirmation bias, self- well the description revealed basic considered whether other predictions of serving bias, and the Barnum effect. personality characteristics, and then personality show the same results. The Confirmation bias is an inferential error, rate each statement as being either true, Chinese zodiac is an eastern method of where a person looks for and interprets false or undecided about how well the reading astrological beings and is similar information that supports that person’s statement matched the participant’s to western astrology (Lau, 2005). belief or expectation (Nickerson, personality. Approximately 75 per cent The Chinese zodiac is a 12 sign chart 1998). This bias is pervasive and is of respondents rated their reading as 4 where allocation to particular sign is very influential, encouraging a person or above. determined by year of birth. The twelve to reject, or at least give less weight to, Additionally, Glick, Gottesman and signs are seen in terms of animals, such information that is contrary to current Jolton (1989) found that skeptics and as the ox, and are based upon lunar beliefs and/or expectations. Self-serving believers of astrology alike will accept months and apparently more character- bias relates to a person’s self-deception false astrological profiles as long as oriented than the western astrological regarding their successes and failures, they are positively toned, and that, sun signs. Rogers and Soule (2009) 30 The Skeptic September 10

Though Western astrol- suggest that for people who are highly ogy (far left) is based spiritual, their spirituality may exist as a around twelve signs for coping mechanism in forms of spiritual in their different parts of the activities (eg meditation), or belief in Stars Eyes year, and the Chinese ‘higher power’ may provide certainty (left) on twelve animals in uncertain situations (Hayman et al., each representing the 2007). year of birth, they both Furthermore, research has shown use the signs as the basis that people have a preference for for positive and negative positive descriptions of themselves personality descriptions. over negative descriptions, and this preference is highlighted in astrological descriptions of predictions of personality (Hamilton, personality, may 2001; French et al., 1991). This be useful. This preference for positive information would remove the appears to be a self-esteem protecting interference of mechanism and operates similarly underlying memory to confirmatory bias (Cummins & processes which Nistico, 2002). occur when a Lillqvist and Lindeman (1998) person compares the investigated belief in astrology and the description with what self-concept, to determine if astrology they know about their was a successful coping strategy for life Sun sign. stresses. They found that astrological There has been information verifies an individual’s some suggestion from self-belief and reduces uncertainty in investigators that the person’s life. The authors indicate belief in astrology and that this effect may occur because related paranormal astrological personality descriptions phenomena, may are apparently constructed for the serve as protection individual, contain information that investigated cross-cultural differences in of self-esteem (Lillqvist & Lindeman, is applicable to many people (like astrological beliefs and susceptibility to 1998). Snyder, Shenkel and Lowery Barnum information) and appears to the Barnum effect using Chinese and (1977) investigated the taking of reinforce the person’s understanding western cohorts. They reject the theory psychological personality tests within of themselves during times of stress or that respondents are more susceptible a counselling session, and caution crisis (Lillqvist & Lindeman). to Barnum profiles derived from their that people with comparatively low We now present the results of a own culture as opposed to an alien self-esteem will be more accepting recent study that explored many of culture. Instead, they suggest that all of information in general than their these issues. participants, regardless of culture, are as high self-esteem counterparts, and One hundred and sixty nine residents likely as each other to accept Barnum are more likely to exhibit cognitive of Tasmania including 113 females information. biases (Rogers & Soule, 2009). That and 56 males took part in the study. Like western astrology, the animal is, people will look for information Their average age was 35 years (range signs of the Chinese zodiac have that consolidates how they feel 18-87) with a variety of educational personality descriptions that are about themselves (Cummins & and social economic backgrounds. associated with each of the twelve Nistico, 2002) and may lead the They were asked to rate the accuracy of signs (Arcati, 1995). These personality person to experience mistakes in true and false astrological profiles, the descriptions resemble western their cognitive processing (such as accuracy of a Chinese zodiac profile, astrological descriptions as they include endorsing information that is vague and completed two measures of belief. positive and negative ‘traits’ for a sign. and generalised; Collins, et al., 1977). The extent to which participants For example, a rabbit is supposed to be Hayman and colleagues (2007) endorsed an astrological prediction of gracious, kind and sensitive, but also investigated the effect of spirituality on their personality was investigated using moody, detached and superficial (Lau, response to life stresses and self-esteem the Sun sign questionnaires which 2005). Due to the ubiquitous nature in a sample of American students. were produced for the purpose of this of western astrological descriptions, Their results indicated that spirituality study. The Sun sign questionnaires using an alternative method to explore buffered the effects of life stresses on were created using descriptions of cognitive bias, such as Chinese Zodiac self-esteem. Hayman and colleagues personalities by Thiessen (2009) 31 A R T I C L E Belief

In line with previous research The current results support Rogers Stars in their Eyes (Rogers & Soule, 2009; Glick et al., and Soule (2009) who suggested that Continued... 1989), participants in the current study the Barnum effect can be demonstrated did not rate their true astrological across western and eastern personality profile as being more like themselves predictions. Skeptics and believers in from www.astrology-online.com. The compared to a false astrological profile. the paranormal gave the same level of statements were produced by compiling The results of this study replicate those endorsement for the Chinese profiles two like descriptions. There were of Wyman and Vyse (2008), where (Glick et al., 1989), and this result was three positive descriptions and three participants could not identify their not influenced by previous knowledge negative descriptions. Participants true astrological profile from a pair of the participant’s individual Chinese rated to what extent they believe the of astrological profiles, one ‘true’, one zodiac sign. statements suit their personality on a ‘false’. In the current study, it was Therefore, it appears that previous 7-point Likert scale (1 = not like me at thought that using actual astrological knowledge of astrological sun signs may all; 7 = very much like me). Participants profiles as the false profiles would be increase endorsement of statements also rated on the same scale, how well useful to investigate the validity of that match this previous knowledge. they believe the profile suited their astrological predictions of personality. This endorsement may then further personality overall. Two descriptions If astrological predictions of personality reinforce belief in astrology. It also were created, a ‘true’ personality profile, were valid, people would endorse appears that believers in astrological and a ‘false’ personality profile. The their true profile highly, and would predictions look for information that ‘false’ personality profile was created by comparatively reject their false profile. matches their knowledge of their using the label of the previous sign for a The results indicate astrological profile, profile (eg a false profile for Scorpio was that using actual All participants [in a and will rate created by labelling a Sagittarius profile astrological profiles “ this more highly as Scorpio). Chinese zodiac personality does not influence 2009 survey], regardless than people who descriptions were created using susceptibility to of culture, are as likely as reject astrological statements of two like descriptions the Barnum effect predictions as being taken from Lau (2005). There are as participants did each other to accept inaccurate. three positive descriptions and three not rate their true Barnum information. In line with negative descriptions for each profile. profile as more like ” previous research Participants responded to what degree themselves than (eg Collins et they believe a statement suits them to their false profile. This provides support al., 1977), people rated positive on the same 7-point Likert scale. for previous research, that people show information as being more about It was hypothesised that self-esteem a strong willingness to accept Barnum themselves than negative information. would be a factor that contributes information as accurate descriptions of This effect was shown across all to belief in astrology; therefore themselves (Wyman & Vyse, 2008). measures within the study; the sun sign participants also completed a self- Endorsement of the Chinese zodiac true profile, sun sign false profile and esteem measure. It was found that profile was not influenced by belief in Chinese zodiac profile. The current participants did not rate their true the paranormal, previous knowledge results replicate Hamilton’s (2001) and astrological profile above their false of Chinese zodiac signs, or whether Wyman and Vyse’s (2008) findings, astrological profile; furthermore, the participant received a true or that people are more likely to accept believers did not rate their Chinese false profile. Previous knowledge of positive information from astrological zodiac profile as more like themselves participants’ Chinese zodiac sign profiles than negative information. compared with non-believers. However, did not increase the participant’s We can tentatively conclude that, people who endorsed astrological endorsement of their personality for some people, astrology provides horoscopes as accurate rated their true profile. Participants, therefore, may positive information that can be sun sign profile as significantly more have been experiencing confirmation used to strengthen understanding of like themselves compared to people bias. That is, participants who received themselves, and belief in astrology may who did not endorse astrological a false profile were expecting that this therefore be a function of increased horoscopes as accurate. Across all profile would be accurate and therefore self-concept. profiles, people were significantly more endorsed the information (Nickerson, The current research may spark some likely to accept positive statements 1998). The lack of difference between further discussion about understanding (eg I am friendly and happy) as being believers and non-believers on the belief and how it relates to experience like themselves compared to negative endorsement of the Chinese zodiac in contemporary society. Miller and statements (eg I am selfish and profile suggests that people, regardless Thoresen (2001) recognise the desire egotistical). Finally, levels of self-esteem of belief in the paranormal, are equally of many people to have better health, were not greater in believers compared subject to the Barnum effect and sense of meaning and satisfaction. to non-believers. confirmation bias. Increasing reports of the belief in the 32 The Skeptic September 10

paranormal may indicate that people Lillqvist, O., & Lindeman, M. (1998). Belief in astrology as are looking to non-traditional areas a strategy for self-verification and coping with negative to find meaning (Sparks & Miller, life-events. European Psychologist, 3(3), 202-208. 2001). Miller and Thoresen recognise Miller, W.R., & Thoresen, C.E. (2003). Spirituality, religion that scientific investigation has largely and health: An emerging research field. American overlooked human satisfaction and Psychologist, 58 (1), 24-35. further research should consider what Nickerson, R.S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous creates rich, positive experiences and phenomenon in many guises. Review of General greater meaning and satisfaction in life. Psychology, 2(2), 175-220. Astrological predictions of personality Rogers, P., & Soule, J. (2009). Cross-cultural differences in have, as PT Barnum coined, “a little the acceptance of Barnum profiles supposedly derived something for everyone” which could from Western versus Chinese astrology. Journal of Cross- explain the residual belief in astrology Cultural Psychology, 40(3), 381-399. when all other factors are accounted Rosen, G.M. (1975). Effects of source prestige on for. It appears that if people can see subjects’ acceptance of the Barnum effect: Psychologist some things about themselves in a versus astrologer. Journal of Consulting and Clinical profile, then they will be likely to Psychology, 43(1), 95. endorse it. This research also highlights Shepperd, J., Malone, W., & Sweeny, K. (2008). Exploring the fact that people do not base their causes of the self-serving bias. Social and Personality belief systems on evidence, logic or Psychology Compass, 2(2), 895-908. reason. . Snyder, C.R., & Clair, M.S. (1977). Does insecurity breed acceptance?: Effects of trait and situational insecurity on acceptance of positive and negative diagnostic References feedback. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, Arcati, K. (1995). Chinese horoscopes for beginners. 45(5), 843-850. London, England: Hodder & Stoughton Educational. Snyder, C.R., Shenkel, R.J., & Lowery, C.R. (1977). Collins, R.W., Dmitruk, V.M., & Ranney, J.T. (1977). Acceptance of personality interpretations: The ‘Barnum Personal validation: Some empirical and ethical Effect’ and beyond. Journal of Consulting and Clinical considerations. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 45 (1), 104-114. Psychology, 45(1), 70-77. Thiessen, M. (2009). The 12 signs of the Zodiac: Indepth Cummins, R.A., & Nistico, H. (2002). Maintaining life explanations. Retrieved 23 March, 2009 from www. satisfaction: The role of positive cognitive bias. Journal astrology-online.com/persn.htm of Happiness Studies, 3, 37-69. Wyman, A.J., & Vyse, S. (2008). Science versus the stars: Dmitruk, V.M., Collins, R.W., & Clinger, D.L. (1973). The A double blind test of the validity of the NEO Five- “Barnum effect” and acceptance of negative personal Factor Inventory and computer-generated astrological evaluation. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, natal charts. The Journal of General Psychology, 135(3), 41(2), 192-194. 287-300. Forer, B.R. (1949). The fallacy of personal validation: A classroom demonstration of gullibility. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44, 118-123. About the authors: French, C.C., & Fowler, M., McCarthy, K., & Peers, D. Caitlin Brain completed (1991). Belief in astrology: A test of the Barnum Effect. her Honours degree In this DVD Dr Long The Skeptical Inquirer, 15(2), 166-172. in Psychology at the (Palaeontologist & Museum of Melbourne’s Head of Science) Glick, P., Gottesman, D., & Jolton, J. (1989). The fault is University of Tasmania in not in the stars: Susceptibility of sceptics and believers 2009. Caitlin is currently reviews recent remarkable in astrology to the Barnum effect. Personality and Social completing a Masters in evidence from China to trace Psychology Bulletin, 15, 572-583. Health while working as the evolution of birds Hamilton, M. (2001). Who believes in astrology? Effect a Health Management from dinosaurs of favorableness of astrologically derived personality Trainee with the and tetrapods from fish. descriptions on acceptance of astrology. Personality and Department of Health Individual Differences, 31, 895-902. and Human Services in Hayman, J.W., Kurpius, S.R., Befort, C., Nicpon, M.F., Hull- Tasmania, caitlin_brain@ $12 Blanks, E., Sollenberger, S., & Huser, L. (2007). Spirituality hotmail.com. from: Australian Skeptics among college freshmen: Relationships to self-esteem, Krissy Wilson is a lecturer PO Box 5166 Melbourne 3001 body image and stress. Counseling and Values, 52(1), 55-70. in psychology at the or: Freecall in Australia Lau, T. (2005). The Handbook of Chinese Horoscopes. New University of Tasmania, 1800 666 996 York: Souvenir Press. [email protected]. 33 a r t i c l e History Science onTrial Does history repeat itself ... over and over and over? Helen Lawrence looks at Galileo, the church, denial of science and the scriptural merry-go-round.

“Of all the hatreds, none is 1200s though welcomed by nobles and laity alike greater than that of ignorance in the region until the against knowledge.” Church burned them in droves. - Galileo Galilei But vilification of individuals was still e think of ancient Greece as an a danger in Galileo’s Wenlightened period when there time. Galileo had a were observations and deductions made science-centred brain in science and mathematics. This was and was not afraid to followed by a long period of dormancy. speak out. He could also Curiously, these dormant periods often demonstrate clout, being seem to coincide with the rise of the a protégée of high-class Church. This was certainly so for the citizens – counts and western world when Christianity became princes, some of them mainstream. in the clergy. In 1636 While there had always been brave Galileo eventually came souls who believed they could get by within the stranglehold Galileo and the Church: “Can’t see a thing.” without belief in God, the Renaissance of the hotheads in the made philosophy almost respectable Church. The image of Giordano Bruno would not stand for it. Things had and in some quarters, science went was always there as a reminder of changed somewhat from the times of hand in hand with it. Limited freedom what could happen. In 1600, Bruno Bruno. But the agitators (who can be became pervasive gradually, along with had been incinerated after years of paralleled today) eventually stimulated weakening of the binding tentacles of starvation and torture in prison. He Pope Urbino VIII to act against the Aristotle. Of the grip of Aristotle, still was a heretic, less strident than Galileo, scientist. felt in the Renaissance, Galileo says: but he was poor and could not rely on Galileo was based in Florence for the “They wish never to raise their eyes from protection from noble supporters. most critical part of his life and he had these pages – as if the great book of the In those days, the written word friends among the Medici family. He universe had been written to be read by was a prime means of communication also belonged to the Lycean Academy no one but Aristotle, and his eyes had and Galileo wrote in Italian, not Latin (the lynxes) and a smear against this been destined to see for all posterity.” – another black mark against him. august association was that they were The name Galileo Galilei has echoes People were beginning to understand dabbling in the occult. Well, maybe, but in the Sea of Galilee, not only famous and make a difference to the world they were also doing real science. Italy, for a charismatic preacher but for the around them, and in particular the with its Pope in Rome, was way behind discovery in 1992 of the articulated religious world. Many saw through some of the other European countries bones of a Neanderthal infant (Amud the litany to the wanton avarice of the and a few prudent scientists fled its 7–10 months old) on its shores. Another Church, and some began to question confining borders. Leonardo da Vinci Israelite reference is to the Dead Sea the fate of martyrs and to examine the went to France and died there after a scrolls and the influence of the Gnostics. current Pope’s intransigence. long and fruitful life. He was buried at The French Cathars, a Gnostic sect There were three popes in Galileo’s Amboise with veneration. whose headquarters were in Albi – hence lifetime, none of them meant to muzzle However, there were popes who Albigensians - were massacred in the him entirely as they knew the public were not lagging in the science and 34 The Skeptic September 10

philosophy of the time ... up to a leaves those in pursuit of Galileo Galilei: physicist, point, as they were all protective of making a fortune and the mathmatician, astron- scriptural inerrancy. Galileo spent pleasure seekers, and these omer, philosopher much of his early life in liberal can often be bracketed and heretic. Venice. Venice was a province where together, exactly as it the Doge ruled and gave refuge to was in the Renaissance. scientists, a practice which infuriated We pride ourselves on Science onTrial Rome. Galileo could count the Doge not torturing heretics religionists among his close friends. In his thirties, but that is not always feathering Galileo came to realise that Medici true. The change is that their own patronage would be useful and so people may be tortured nests! he moved to Florence. While he was for their faith and not there, a Dutchman, Hans Lippershey, for lack of faith. Convicted of published the fact that he had invented The Church in Galileo’s heresy an instrument called a telescope. time was beginning to In an ecclesiastical Galileo, much interested, set to work feel the heat not only of court in 1616, to improve its penetrating power until burgeoning science, but also Galileo was told he could see the moons of Jupiter and of Protestant fervour. The enmity he had permission to the mountains on the moon. This between the two faiths came to a head teach Copernicus’ findings finding upset the Church because the in the Thirty Years War. It is to the hypothetically, but in 1633 a less moon and stars were believed to be in credit of good sense, however, that accommodating court accused him the ‘crystalline’ sphere – God’s domain mainstream Catholics and Protestants of heresy for the same ‘crime’. He was – and that did not include mountains! have come to a polite arrangement to lucky to get off with house arrest as he The Church had not given up on live and let live. Not so all churchgoers. had many enemies. Perhaps it shows our Earth being the centre of the universe; In the western world, a fifth (or third) progress in that no scientist today would in other words, Copernicus was column has arisen and inserted itself be ordered in a court of law that he or deemed wrong. But scientists such as into both faiths and the public at large. she could not hold an opinion contrary Kepler said he was right and so did It has insidiously slid into the teaching to that preached by an established many people who were not particularly curricula in schools (universities on religion. For Galileo, the only way such enamoured of science. Another thorn the whole have remained immune) a court could bind a scientist would be in the flesh of popes in the sixteen and countries in Europe have banded to kill him. At that stage of the 1600s hundreds was the rise of Protestantism. together to report and restrain this many in Italy would not have stood for Galileo and the Church: “Can’t see a thing.” Wars were fought between the two pernicious doctrine. This third column another ecclesiastical murder. religions. A million ‘witches’ were repudiates the fact that humans are in Galileo met with much kindness tortured and burnt at the stake. Both fact animals, and tries to muddy the in exile and wrote a final book after religions took part in this ‘cleansing’, waters by leaving them out of natural experimenting with forces like tensile but it is thought that the Jesuits were selection. Unfortunately, intolerance is strength, viscosity and dynamics. Even instrumental in condemning Galileo as alive and well today as it was in the as his work became anathema, Galileo and that they would have wanted time of Galileo. was recognised across the western world. him to follow Bruno in a fiery death. As humans, if we are to have any sort His books, including those on the Index, The Jesuits wanted “to formulate an of longevity on Earth, we need to heed were published by Elzevir, a publisher alternative church-friendly science that how history repeats itself and to take that still exists (Elsevier). The old man refuted secular studies at every turn”. stock of the amount of damage we do writes gratefully of being able to write along with the benefits we bestow. Most “works that spread their wings under an And today’s world? people living on Earth today are aware open sky”. Can we in the 21st century It is quite clear that we live in an age of the damage done by civilisation. live up to this epitaph for science? . of scientific invention that impinges The fact that it is dinned into us by the on all of our lives. But the immense media is a good thing, because a colossal About the author struggle to get to where we are now effort is required to right the wrongs. Helen Lawrence has a is often forgotten – or to some, The last thing humanity needs BA in archaeology and unknown. There are parallels from is a denial of science and yet this is palaeoanthropology. She Galileo’s time to our situation in what is being advocated from various writes peer reviewed books the modern world. Scholars and quarters. Science, sometimes misguided for the general public the scientifically-minded are still but basically telling us how to rectify and school students “to very much in the minority while unpalatable truths, is our one saving counteract ignorance on the the dispossessed are legion, perhaps grace. The last thing it needs is the place of humans in natural more so today than ever before. That flea-biting of ignoramuses or malign selection”. 3503 a r t i c l e Religion

Hands &Feet

Above: ‘Healer’ John Mellor at work - what Peter Ellerton was asked by A Current Affair to have faith … Peter Ellerton describes as “a circus of people on the installment plan … but his feet still hurt. falling about and being lost in some kind of rapturous state”. ell, there I was, baring my sole not-too-bad band take us through Wfor the world to see. Yup, my some very long, repetitive and hypnotic If it wasn’t logically possible, then there feet were on display courtesy of an music, during which the hands around would be no point testing any such invitation from A Current Affair to us started waving in the air and, I claim, and this testing is something to come and see the ‘healer’ John Mellor, assume, the spirit of the Lord made which a genuine skeptic must always and maybe to get myself fixed in the its way down – perhaps registering at be open. process. the front desk and maybe buying some We then returned to the show, and Bob Bruce, president of the CDs before getting to work. At this it wasn’t too long after that Mellor Queensland Skeptics, was contacted stage I was saved in a very secular sense was introduced to us by the pastor

by the reporter Kate Donovan to see by Kate and her crew taking me off of this soon to be mega-church, who photoX-ray source: http://flickr.com/photo/85473033@N00/991172849 if anyone was game (or, in my case, to a side room for the first part of the was clearly mega-chuffed to have a gammy) to have a condition presented interview. man with a direct line to the celestial to Mellor on national TV; the ‘test’ It was here that I got to make superclinic on the laying floor (the being to see if someone could indeed the ‘extraordinary claims demand whole complex is the old Sunny Queen be healed by prayer. As a skeptic and extraordinary evidence’ comment that egg processing plant – make of that sufferer of flat feet, I thought I could was shown on air. It’s also where I what you will, though chook analogies get some firsthand experience of the said that it was ‘entirely possible’ than and metaphors were certainly with me laying on of hands on my feet, which John has a gift of some sort. Now, as a throughout). was worth doing just so I could say teacher of philosophy and logic, I am that. So, as I say, there I was, hands up very keen to declare logical possibilities Healing the heels volunteering my feet (I’ll stop now) to when they exist. I still maintain it is One of the first things Mellor did the healing power of the Lord. logically possible that faith healers can was to bring up to the front a friend But good things apparently only ply their trade effectively; it’s just that whom he had apparently healed from come to those who wait. We had a I don’t have any evidence that they do. being crippled and blind a while back. 36 The Skeptic September 10

The evidence that this was true was always choose to treat unverifiable over to him by Kate, the reporter from testimony from the healed man conditions? Why the hidden tumour, ACA. He was well aware that I was himself. Now, it may be the case that the immune system disease, the mental invited by the program to come along, this fellow’s recovery did coincide illness, the sore back? Why not the club and doubtless saw me as the test of with a visit from Mellor, and it may foot, the disfigured face, the severed his abilities I was intended to be. His be the case that he wasn’t really that hand, the hunchback or the lost hair? eyes certainly paused for a time upon crook at all. The fact is, we have Why not grow the faithful a third the Australian Skeptics badge on my no way of knowing. It never seems set of teeth? I have answers to these jacket, though I doubt he understood quite polite to stand up at the time questions, of course, but I have no its origin (let’s face it, you need to be of testimony and say something like need to articulate them to readers of uncomfortably close to someone’s breast “Excuse me, but why should we this magazine. before you can read it). believe you?” There was certainly no Mellor then asked for those in the His intent was to ascertain my doubt in the faces of those who had audience that were suffering great pain condition and to understand the come to see such miracles performed. to identify themselves. I kind of felt symptoms I experienced, so as to For my part, and I’m sure it was true he wasn’t talking about me, expecting properly understand when I had been of the row of skeptics in which I sat, “great pain” to mean that experienced cured. Fair enough, I thought at the there was a kind of head-scratching in the final stages of cancer and the time, the man needs to know what he’s wonder at how we were expected to like, so I hesitated before putting my dealing with. believe this stuff based on hearsay hand up. It’s fun to do this sort of thing that wouldn’t convince an alcoholic As I saw him casting an eye over the yourself, rather than just watch it on that OJ in whiskey was good for you. audience, I began to realise that he had TV, and when Mellor asked me what It was particularly odd that the fact in fact met all of the people that had my condition was I told the crowd that the guy was asked to run up to come here today to be healed. all about it as openly as I could. He Hands &Feet the stage apparently was meant to I know, I’m pretty slow. I should then wasted no time in getting me in make the case even stronger (in fact, have pegged it when Jayson Cooke position and started work. he did this several times during the of the Griffith University Skeptics As I stood there trying to tell if show, on each occasion drawing gasps came up to me earlier showing me any tingling was beginning that could of wonder and cries of “praise Jesus” his ‘healed’ tooth that Mellor had signify I was being divinely felt up, I from the crowd). treated beforehand (how is that tooth, recalled some of my basic neurology This pretty much layed out what Jayson?). and psychology. I remembered we too could expect. I figure Mellor was looking for the that patients who believe they were Mellor made the disingenuously right dramatic approach to the healing, undergoing treatment frequently report humble acknowledgement that to get the mood building in the less pain, and that physical contact not all healing happens on the appropriate way. A kind of triage for that was perceived to be helpful often day. On occasion the miracle takes the ambience of the was, in the sense place hours, or even days, later. show. Why doesn’t God ever of the previous Sometimes, apparently, the Lord heals First off the rank “ effect. Not to in installments (I suspect Medicare was a lady with grow back a missing limb? mention some payments work out better this way). lupus. No great Why must he always very interesting Now, it seems to me that if God drama here in the parasympathetic deems it fit and proper to channel his workup, but after choose to treat unverifiable responses from power through a healer, performing laying on his hands conditions? being touched or

X-ray photoX-ray source: http://flickr.com/photo/85473033@N00/991172849 miracles that suspend physical law, and praying for ” held which also then there is really no requirement her recovery, she contribute to that he do so in piecemeal fashion. claimed her pain had gone. He then relaxation and a sense of well being. Can’t he just do it? Why should he ran back and forth with her, which While I felt a bit of a stranger in a have to stand back and say “Well, let’s clearly is some universal test to see strange land, I could also imagine how see how that goes for a while and I’ll if the condition has cleared. She sat someone who felt completely at home touch it up later if it doesn’t work”? down again and maintained a neutral in a faith environment could easily Maybe it looks better over time - after expression for the remainder of my magnify these effects. all, no one could say he doesn’t have a time there, which I thought odd for Before anyone decries my sense of the dramatic. someone cured of years of pain. unreferenced speculation, let me While we’re on the topic of A bit later I put my hand up and remind you that there is no burden of parameters of God’s power, why got the nod to make my way into the proof upon me. This lies entirely with doesn’t he ever grow back a missing limelight. those who claim they can deliver cures limb? Surely this is no less miraculous I should say at this stage that I had outside the restraints of the material than curing cancer. Why must he met Mellor before the event, handed world. I’m just trying to understand 3703 a r t i c l e Religion

- after all, look at all the people around themselves and some others that they you who are getting better. truly have a ‘gift’. After all, the easiest Hands & Feet The other fellow invited by ACA person to delude is yourself. As a raving was playing for higher stakes. He was libertarian, I tend to let people believe Continued... a Christian as I understand it (we did what they want so long as it stays in not meet), who has suffered for many their court, but now I was darkening years with crimped nerves in his arm a bit. how the whole thing works. that cause constant and severe pain. What is the test for successful After a brief time of touching and After Mellor’s first, second and third healing of knee problems caused by praying, which wouldn’t have made for attempts, his answer was a low key rheumatoid arthritis? Yep, you guessed a short consultation at my local GP, I and unarguable “no change”. I loved it, run up and down a bit. What is one was then asked if I felt of the worst things you could make any better. Boy, was I someone with rheumatoid arthritis do? tested. The truth was I You guessed it again, run up and down did feel a little better, a bit. Even given some lessening of but then I always do the pain, how anyone could guarantee when I’ve been sitting that no damage was being done by this down for a while irresponsible behaviour was beyond and get to straighten me. I admit the guy said his pain was my back. I still had gone, but like our lady with lupus, he twinges, so I said that seemed awfully plain-faced afterwards I was probably one of those him for that. In for a guy that has been the recipient who might take a while after the event what I thought of a miracle. I hope he was healed, to be cured, if it was going to happen. of as masterful because he would have been sore Not to be daunted, Mellor prayed management of the afterwards otherwise. over me once again. I shook my situation, rather legs a little bit to see if anything was than accept defeat publicly, Mellor ACA’s modus operandi happening, and was amused that this asked him to sit at the front with him About then Kate came and got me for ignited a small flurry of evangelical and he would pray over him later. I a follow up interview. She asked me if activity in the audience (perhaps some could sense the faithful anticipating I thought I was better, and I told her were waiting for a tongue-speaking an intense and soul-shaking session to no (as it happens, the next day was one episode). Better now? A little, I had be held afterwards. I don’t know what on which I had more pain than usual to offer, as it was true. Maybe this eventually happened. - am I missing something?). She also was the beginning of an escalating This was pretty much repeated with gave me a wonderful opening when she unravelling of my bunched muscles a fellow that had rheumatoid arthritis, asked if I though this guy was a snake and misaligned backbone? Move your but with apparent success this time, oil salesman. I hope I acted in the best shoulders around a bit, he suggested. and I admit this was when my mood skeptical tradition by saying there was So I did, loosening up the muscles turned. simply no evidence that he had any even further. Better? Well, a bit. Praise Despite healing ability at all. the Lord. knowing what I I did suggest that I sat back down (to some applause) know about how “ ... how psychologically the best possible and felt the old twinges start up again. some religious and physically damaging test would involve a Maybe tomorrow. healers have dealt person undergoing in false hope and the whole thing must an independent Mellor’s modus operandi gouged their have been for those with medical Mellor’s mode of questioning his congregations for examination, followers is typical of faith healers. millions, I was genuine conditions” going through After he prayed over them he would prepared to give the whole healing ask if they felt better. If they said Mellor the doubt as someone who business, and then having a follow up “yes” or “a bit” he would follow with actually believes his own propaganda. examination. Not rocket science, surely “the pain’s gone?” Isn’t that leading Maybe, like several psychics I have there are plenty of devotees confident the witness? I can imagine no small met, he stumbled onto a combination enough to do it, and what possible amount of pressure to say that things of style and technique that seemed objection could anyone who genuinely were improving, and I have a sinking to deliver what he was trying to do. believed in the healing ability of prayer feeling that the implication is that if Combined with a bit of innate but have? you are not healed, then it must be naive understanding of psychology, I also clearly stated that nothing because of a lack of faith on your part these people can convince both about what I had been through, or 38 The Skeptic September 10

what anyone else said, constituted damaging the whole acceptable, publicly-verifiable evidence. thing must have I said, as we all know, that the plural been for those with of anecdote was not data, and that genuine medical anything we do outside a clinical test is or psychiatric irrelevant. None of this made it to air. conditions. The producer of the segment I maintain that obviously wanted a case in which the the best skeptical healing seemed to work, one in which attitude is characterised by open- it may or may not have (that would be mindedness and compassion for those me), and one in which it did not. This whose claims we investigate, and that was the product that aired that week. this will better promote cool skeptical It was, of course, a complete waste of investigation to become an accepted time in terms of evidence-seeking, and analytical tool. Looking around at In the other, psychological phenomena does nothing but keep the question the people there on the day, there by the bucketful mix in with deception open in the minds of the public. was certainly a need for compassion and delusion, money and desperation After that interview, I was speaking towards their problems and the and the worst manifestations of with Bob Bruce and I think both of us desperate physical conditions they irrationality. It is telling that the felt too disturbed to go back up to the brought to Mellor’s attentions. two views are party, so we took off. I also can’t help but contrast two indistinguishable. . What I saw later on TV showed views on the whole event. In one, there that the whole thing degenerated into is a God who works through John About the author a circus of people falling about and Mellor to heal those who come to him. Peter Ellerton is a teacher being lost in some kind of rapturous This God does not heal overtly, will and winner of the 2008 state and I don’t want to think about not act in a publicly-verifiable manner Australian Skeptics Prize for how psychologically and physically and relies on testimony and anecdote. Critical Thinking.

39 R E V I E W S Astrology +Climate

his research and bringing together the context Stars, science and of certain periods of history. His initial chapters describe how astronomy emerged from the beliefs of astrology. Bobrick effectively ties in the science bargain bin books of astronomy and astrology and the influence of astrology for major figures in history. Starting The Fated Sky: Astrology in History with discussion on the astral links in the Bible, Bobrick commences his full-blown history with By Benson Bobrick early Mesopotamia, the “apparent birthplace” Simon & Schuster, 2005, A$24.95 (or bargain bin prices if you can find it) of astrology (p15) and discusses the impact of astrologers at various courts, where many n interesting book that was found in a local decisions were made as a result of birth dates Abook bin. Initially it looked like something and information from the astrologers. Having that would be of interest in my skeptical studies, said that, many astrologers also met their fate for but by Chapter 6 I realised that this book was making bad predictions, or ‘incorrect’ decisions, an excellent history book that shows history especially at the courts of Asian Emperors. from the point of view of astrology. It does not The book is very academic until about Chapter show how history was changed via astrology or 7 when discussion commences on aspects of how demonstrate aspects of pseudoscience proven by the great scientists of the Middle Ages all drew astrologers: the book is a history book that has the their inspiration from astrology and all continued theme of astrology to cast horoscopes after they become great through it. Very thinkers. Interestingly, Kepler, who developed much a different the laws of planetary motion, was a master of take but an unbiased the astrological arts and his teacher Tycho Brahe, view of astrology’s considered one of the greatest observational influence on the astronomers, was a court astrologer to Fredrick II participants of of Denmark. Shakespeare’s works are referenced history, as opposed with over 200 astrology-related statements. The to the prediction of analysis of the statements made by Shakespeare history. The book are all considered in tune with the thinking of the makes no claim as time and indicate that Shakespeare himself was to the effectiveness a keen astrologer. It is these little snippets that of astrology in pull the book together and make it interesting to people’s lives, only those, like myself, that have an interest not only in the influence of science, but the history and philosophy of science. the process. This is I also have an interest in science and skeptic trivia, refreshing. and this book will assist those skeptics who have a Astrology, as we need to read about astrology objectively. skeptics know, is a Some interesting facts from the book include collection of belief that Carl Jung, noted psychologist, sometimes systems that imply cast horoscopes of his patients to assist in his that celestial bodies analytical work. It is reported that his friend Freud have influence on eventually saw Jung’s involvement in astrology human personality, was similar to fortune telling (p279). Additionally, human affairs and during World War 2, the British Political Warfare events in life. It Department employed an ‘unofficial astrologer’ presupposes us to who wrote, as part of a disinformation campaign, a confirmed ‘road a German astrological magazine. Goebbels, Hitler’s map’ for all people as a result of the birth date faithful assistant, used charts to show the strength and the position of various celestial bodies such of Germany in battle. William Gann, the most as stars, planets and the sun. The reviewer is influential trader on Wall Street, used astrological heartened by the fact that in 2006, the National calculations to predict commodity prices. Science Board of the United States classified Some questions did arise from my reading of astrology as a pseudoscience. Additionally, the book. Bobrick indicates that a large number astrologers of today believe that their craft cannot of possible predictions came true, especially when be tested via the scientific method. history before 1800 was re-interpreted, but the Bobrick is a very effective writer in terms of predictions of astrology recently have not been 40 The Skeptic September 10

all that effective. The book says that in 1975 book, but it was very distracting to the reviewer. Carl Sagan refused to sign a manifesto with 192 But, should a person be interested in the history of other scientists against the use of astrology, but he astrology, the author does make amends by staying responded with a letter (reproduced on page 303) on course for most of the book. that said there were two issues with astrology, The book has an excellent centre section of one being the validity and two the motivation of black & white images with detailed information the astrologers themselves. Interestingly, Bobrick and references. A glossary at the rear of the book compares continental drift to astrology - initially explains many astrology-related terms used in the no-one believed in the ‘drift’ theory, but today book. it is fact. According to Bobrick, NASA had ten Would this book be a suitable addition to the astrologers in 1969 involved in the first moon skeptic’s library? If the skeptic is interested in the landing to predict outcomes (p306-307). As a history of astrology and needs an unbiased book ‘space junkie’, I cannot recall seeing this in any on the impact of astrology in history and science, other book that I have read on the subject, so I this book would make a nice addition. The book cannot trust the validity of the statement. would be complemented by other texts no doubt. One aspect of the book that is both effective The book does allow the reader to think about the yet disappointing is Bobrick’s approach to history impact of the occult on science and how astrology texts. The effectiveness comes in where the author leads to many discoveries and concepts in science, knows his subject, demonstrates excellent research including the concept of longitude and laws of and creates a context for the subject by including planetary motion. But, if the reader wants a book aspects of the contempory political environment on how the astrologer undertakes his art, the book and related information. But, as the theme is is lacking in processes, but I do not think that was astrology, the author tends, on some subjects, to Bobrick’s intention. But should a sKeptic wish to pull away from the theme and starts to move off in understand the processes of astrology, I suspect a tangent away from astrology to discuss unrelated that many other books would provide a most issues. Examples of this effectiveness is the section suitable explanation. relating to all the astrology-related themes in The impact of astrology on the development Shakespeare’s writings. This section shows the of science, medicine, astronomy, major figures author’s complete dedication to the art of astrology of history or even Shakespeare’s plays cannot and how William Shakespeare brought out the art be forgotten. If this was Bobrick’s aim, then he in his writing. But then, the author moves off on achieved it. the tangent when discussing other authors. This is only seen in a small number of sections of the - Reviewed by Geoff Cowan The argument in question

The Lomborg Deception: Setting the Record Straight The dust jacket describes Howard Friel as an About Global Warming By Howard Friel “independent scholar” who has previously written works analysing the New York Times’ biased analysis Yale University Press, A$47.95 of the Israel Palestine conflict and US foreign policy. This gives us some idea of what to expect jørn Lomborg has come to prominence with the current effort. At 270 pages,The Lomborg Bas the author of several books such as The Deception is notably brief in comparison to the Skeptical Environmentalist and Cool It, which Lomborg corpus that Friel is trying to analyse. claim to give a calm and clear account of the state At the outset it should be said that Friel of the environment in contrast to the outrageous has confined himself to a very narrow review and exaggerated claims of environmentalists. of Lomborg’s work. Lomborg’s econometric While many biologists and environmental efforts such asGlobal Crises, Global Solutions and scientists have been fairly dismissive of his Solutions for the World’s Biggest Problems: Costs claims, few rigorous counterarguments have been and Benefits are totally ignored. Surprisingly, published. Howard Friel set out to follow the The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring paper trail of Lomborg’s sources and has published the Real State of the World receives only a his results in The Lomborg Deception. twenty page analysis. The rest of the book is 41 R E V I E W S Climate + Phenomena

in Europe per year in contrast with 1,480,000 The argument in question cold related deaths. Friel’s only comment on Continued... this remarkable claim is to say that Lomborg’s reference, a report from the World Health exclusively concerned with Cool It: The Skeptical Organisation, didn’t make mention of heat or Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming. cold related deaths. What should be obvious from Friel has done an adequate job of following the Lomborg’s end note is that Lomborg has taken a citations in Cool It and reveals a fairly predictable mortality study of a small number of European structure to Lomborg’s approach. Lomborg will sites (Keatinge: 2000) and estimated a European quote a news grabbing article in the popular press figure based on the WHO report’s population or well-publicised claims of environmentalists and figure. Keatingeet al. studied temperature then cite some scholarly research before drawing and mortality statistics for a small number of a contrary conclusion. By searching through European regions and compared fluctuations of Lomborg’s scholarly sources, Friel reveals a trend the mortality rate. For each locale they obtained where Lomborg’s optimistic conclusions have been an ‘optimal temperature’ which corresponded to constructed from a collage of carefully selected the temperature with the fewest deaths. Essentially, quotes. deaths that occurred on hotter days were classed as Friel indulges himself in some annoying forms of ‘heat related deaths’ and deaths that occurred on pedantry. Lomborg is criticised for describing some colder days were classed as ‘cold related deaths’. polar bear colonies as being “stable” when his source The difficulty with this article is that it conflates describes them as “stationary” (p26). Likewise we seasonal mortality factors with temperature. There learn that a food security report from the UN Food was a similar distribution of deaths in northern and Agriculture Organisation uses the terminology and southern Europe. There was nothing to “undernourished” and suggest that cold weather was causing the deaths “malnourished”, but in the study, rather than seasonal factors such as Lomborg uses “starving” seasonal illnesses, changes in diet, excessive alcohol (p56). This finicky consumption that are generally associated with obsession leads itself to heightened winter mortality. Lomborg accepts absurdity when Friel this uncritically and extrapolates that “in the past begins a lengthy attack decade, Europe has lost about 15 million people to on Lomborg for referring the cold” (Lomborg 2007: p17), but Friel fails to to a diagram in the 4th detect anything dubious in the argument. IPCC report as “Figure While Friel raises some reasonable criticisms of 10.6.1” when in fact he Lomborg’s work, his underlying hostility against was referring to Figure Lomborg and penchant for pedantic digressions 10.61 of Section 10.6.1 won’t endear his work to Lomborg’s readers (p117). who are deeply suspicious of environmentalist While this superficial apologetics. Friel’s fleeting discussion ofThe approach does produce Skeptical Environmentalist and his failure to address many examples of Lomborg’s other econometric works give The Lomborg’s selective Lomborg Deception an unfinished feel. Anyone quote mining, Friel’s looking for a comprehensive critique of Lomborg’s lengthy excursions work would be better served by visiting the into the minutiae of Lomborg Errors website. academic referencing comes with a failure - Reviewed by Chris Guest to refute the broader economic, statistical References and ecological arguments that Lomborg is making. Lomborg Errors: http://www.lomborg-errors.dk A case in point is Friel’s treatment of a section Keatinge WR, Donaldson GC, Cordioli EA, Martinelli M, of Cool It called “Death in Europe” (Lomborg, Kunst AE Mackenbach JP et al. (2000) Heat related mortality p15). While 35,000 West Europeans died in in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study. British the August 2003 heatwave, Lomborg leads us Medical Journal ;321(7262):670 (16 September), http://www. to believe that media attention is ignoring a bmj.com/cgi/content/full/321/7262/670 significantly larger number of deaths per year Bjørn Lomborg, Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide due to cold weather. Lomborg tells us in an end to Global Warming (New York, Knopf, 2007) note that there are 207,000 heat related deaths 42 The Skeptic September 10 Things that make you go woo Unexplained families of everyone on board, many of whom Tony Robinson (Presenter) 3-part British TV series lived in the same city; and the medium had a DVD from SBS and Madman Films, 144 minutes. A$24.95 long history - and future - of fraud.) The investigators, however, were so diligent approached this material with as to consult Prof Chris French and Prof Richard I an open mind but also with Wiseman, who laid on a similar séance and caution, as the outer packaging allowed the crew to film it in infra-red light, implies that Tony - a brilliant with hilarious results. The pursuit of everyone comic actor and presenter whom, that might bear on the investigation leads to the until now, I have admired - will doubters and skeptics getting a lot more air-time be presenting various superstitious than I have seen on TV before; there seems to be beliefs in a credulous fashion. a 50-50 split between the rational and the woo- “Unlocking information about woo, which itself gets pretty well debunked as the past using psychic techniques” they go along. skites the cover, alarmingly. “Tony Other skeptics have made scathing criticism Robinson and science journalist of these programs, on a more dogmatic basis Becky McCall step into the (which is how I feel personally); well, scathe unknown to investigate whether away, guys, but for a TV program I prefer to past paranormal events should be see an open-minded investigation, properly taken seriously or dumped into conducted and without prior judgement, that history’s litterbin.” Well, at least will reach and instruct a general audience. there’s a scientist in it; she can hold Each episode deals with an obscure story that is the lid open. rather old but still within living memory, and In each episode Tony starts off by saying the resultant findings are, well, skeptical. Becky “when you look at the past, everything should always brings up some inconvenient fact or have a rational explanation”, which is a bit odd; concept to spoil every line of psychic inquiry, and where did Beethoven’s 9th Symphony come rational thought wins every time, although Tony from? The three episodes deal respectively (and does manage to leave a tiny little bit of room for respectfully) with the excavation of Glastonbury any believers to continue in their delusion. in the 1910s; a séance in World War Two where Although there are only three episodes on this the ghost revealed startling new information; and DVD and no extras, each episode is 50 minutes a whole group of people - actually two whole long and makes compelling viewing. I rescind groups of people - who all believed that they were my initial cynical view and I heartily recommend reincarnations of a whole group of other people, this DVD, and similar ventures if they come namely the ill-fated Cathars of medieval France. within range, to everyone. My admiration for But I found to my pleasant surprise that Tony Mr Robinson, who once made a very good and his team, while keeping an open mind, track documentary about shit, has increased. down the details of each story very thoroughly indeed. The proper authorities, believers and - Reviewed by Steve Roberts skeptics alike are found and interviewed. For the 1941 séance, for example, a lady is interviewed who was actually there and saw the manifested spirit, which purported to be of a dead sailor with “HMS Barham” embroidered on his hatband. The disastrous loss of theBarham , a few days earlier, was a carefully guarded military secret, such that this sort of séance attracted official displeasure and the medium was arrested, tried and thrown into prison for witchcraft. (Skeptics will also want to hear: that sailor’s hatband was found among her possessions; ships’ names were not written on sailors’ hatbands; the loss of the Barham was already known to the 43 R E V I E W S Literary authorship The Bard, by any other name

Contested Will: Who Wrote Shakespeare? concealed identity, pseudonymous authorship, By James Shapiro contested evidence, bald-faced deception, and a failure to grasp what could not be imagined”. Simon & Schuster, A$47.95 There is no evidence that anyone in Shakespeare’s time thought that the plays came can’t remember, but I think it was Woody from anyone else. In fact, it was only a couple of IAllen who wrote the joke: The plays of William centuries after his death that doubters started piping Shakespeare were not written by Shakespeare up. Part of the problem was that it was so hard to himself, but by someone with the same name. know about Shakespeare the sorts of things we like The only reason the joke works is that for a couple to know about an author, like how he worked, how of centuries there have been sceptics who have he got along with his wife and friends, or what were denied that Shakespeare’s works were actually the his hobbies. If Shakespeare kept a journal or had works of Shakespeare. In Contested Will: Who Wrote extensive correspondence, we just don’t have it. Shakespeare, it’s not a surprise that James Shapiro What we do have are documents about answers the question in the subtitle the way he does: his life in Stratford that show he dealt in malt. Shakespeare did. After all, Shapiro is a Shakespeare Not only that, but he lent money, and when his scholar whose most recent book was a look at one neighbours failed to pay him back, he promptly year (1599) in Shakespeare’s life and how the plays took them to court. There is a tradition of warts- he was writing were formed by the political and and-all biographies of authors so that no one now social environment of that time. So, yes, “He would is surprised if a great writer also is obsessed with say that, wouldn’t he?” will be the response from royalties or drink, but this was not the way the the current sceptics, all of whom have their own Romantics wanted to think about the most famous candidate for the position of Bard. (One must not writer in England. He had to have higher spiritual be confused by the elasticity of the word “sceptic”. values than some malt-dealing moneylender. This In the case of Shakespeare authorship, the sceptics was linked with a willingness to question authorship are the ones who take the position that someone else in the case of Homer, which was itself an outgrowth wrote Shakespeare’s plays. They are, therefore, the of the ‘higher criticism’ that used historical and ones against whom it philological methods to understand the composition behooves the rest of us of the Bible. to be sceptical.) Enter Edmond Malone, who in 1796 published Shapiro’s book, a convincing debunking of the sensational indeed, puts an ‘Shakespeare’ documents forged by William-Henry unassailable case Ireland. Shapiro says this was an enormous service for Shakespeare of to the Bard, but that Malone’s legacy has damaged Stratford being the Shakespeare far more than Ireland’s forgeries ever author, but that could. Malone was a great Shakespeare scholar, and is only at the end. was himself devoted to the man of Stratford. But Everything that goes he was frustrated that after a lifetime of hunting up before is a history of unforged documentation for Shakespeare’s life, he the anti-Stratfordian was coming up blank; eyewitnesses were dead and movement. It is a documents lost. Lacking evidence, he went to the wonderfully clear plays and sonnets themselves, at first merely making explanation of why the first serious attempt to list the plays in the sceptics started going chronological order of their composition. No harm wrong and have there, but he then began to hunt in each text for continued vehemently what might be allusions to contemporary historical on their wrong paths. events which Shakespeare would have witnessed and It is an entertaining then to events in Shakespeare’s personal life. and often hilarious The approach sounds appealing, but with as tale, a path strewn, little as we can know about Shakespeare’s life, how as Shapiro says, with could we ever check back to see if the literature “fabricated documents, reflected the life? Moreover, Shakespeare wrote embellished lives, about murderers, suicides, sorcerers, kings; we 44 The Skeptic September 10

don’t expect that he is listed among any of those J. T. Looney (whose name has caused titters to non- categories himself. Nevertheless, the Romantics sceptics ever since), even Sigmund Freud. were soon taking Malone’s cue; Wordsworth himself Shapiro is never condescending to these wrote that in the Sonnets “Shakespeare expresses proponents, and makes earnest attempts to his own feelings in his own person.” This is to understand the cracked ideas that were taken discount the power of sympathetic imagination; seriously. In the 20th century, those in favour of to write realistically about feelings does not imply Edward de Vere, 17th Earl of Oxford, as the real that one has felt exactly the same feelings. But author expanded their claims to include the work Malone opened the Pandora’s Box, and mining the of Christopher Marlowe and Edmund Spenser, poems and plays for nuggets of autobiography has as well as showing that Oxford had been Queen continued ever since, and is the unstable foundation Elizabeth’s lover (you can look it up!). This is upon which the anti-Stratfordians have despite the difficult fact that he died in always built their cases. 1604, and many of the plays are The cases started with confidently dated as written Delia Bacon, an American after that. It is not intellectual and lecturer coincidence, Shapiro who somehow came shows, that the rise in Right: The Globe Theatre to label Shakespeare Oxford’s shares has in London, where Will as a “stupid, illiterate, come at a time when Shakespeare, or third-rate play-actor”, there is a greater someone else, worked someone who could willingness to believe and played. not have composed the in governmental elevated productions conspiracies and bearing his name. Her cover-ups. The Philosophy of the Plays It is a relief to come of Shakespeare Unfolded of to the end of the book and 1857 was the first book to deny see what a case can be made for Shakespeare’s authorship. If not Shakespeare, Shakespeare himself. Shapiro demonstrates that who? Why, it was Francis Bacon, and despite the only a long-term partner deeply involved in the names, no one has shown that Delia Bacon was joint workings of the stage could have written in trying to champion a family member. But why she such a fashion, not an aristocrat working solitarily in picked Francis Bacon is not really clear; he was a a room and delivering the plays anonymously to the brilliant statesman and one of the founders of the actors. There are contemporary witnesses, there are scientific revolution, but there isn’t any evidence clues from printing houses, there are many details from the works that bear his name that he could that point to the conclusion that Shakespeare was, write plays and poems. Delia Bacon maintained after all, merely Shakespeare. In addition, genuine that Francis Bacon hated the despotism of Queen Shakespeare scholarship is coming to understand Elizabeth and her successor James I, but since he that many of the plays are joint productions; the could not say so openly, he wrote Shakespeare’s Stratfordians are not loath to accept that their man plays, which if you read them in just the right could partner with other writers, collaborations that biographical way, are republican manifestos. the sceptics do not tolerate for their candidates. The Francis Bacon did have an interest in ciphers, claims for other candidates is based on snobbery: and Orville Ward Owen, a doctor from Detroit, a hick from Stratford, son of a glove-maker, could built a decoding machine of rotating drums and not have had the knowledge or the life experience to a thousand-foot-long canvas sheet onto which all write such plays. But if Shakespeare the actor could of Bacon’s works (including Shakespeare’s plays) imagine himself into plenty of roles, Shapiro argues, were pasted. It sounds like something from the why could not his powerful imagination bring forth more recent silliness of The Bible Code, but the the roles in his own plays and sonnets? decoder revealed not only that Bacon had written Shapiro’s book is capped with this advocacy, Shakespeare, but that he was the bastard child of the but all that has gone before is a sympathetic formerly-assumed Virgin Queen, Elizabeth, who understanding of why and how we subject the Bard had been impregnated by the Earl of Leicester and (as we do no other author) to authorship disputes. was thus the rightful heir to the British throne. No Contested Will is less a broadside in the Stratfordian’s wonder he wrote that whiny play Hamlet! defense than it is a humane examination of an The idea of non-Shakespearean authorship was idiosyncratic bit of literary history. taken seriously by many, including Mark Twain, Helen Keller, Henry James, a schoolmaster named - Reviewed by Rob Hardy 45 R E V I E W S Creationism Humans, animals and God

How Now Shall We Live? who are not creationists. She is less nauseatingly By Charles Colson and Nancy Pearcey repetitive than Colson but is really pushing the same barrow. Tyndale House,, US$16.99 The first 40 pages consist of a softening up process, concentrating on philosophy. Because his book concentrates on false scientific this branch of the humanities is difficult to Tassessments, half truths and plausibility. understand unless one is familiar with the methods Colson tends to trivialise science, either because of argument, it impresses those less abreast of he doesn’t understand it or because he wants to the various theories. It impressed some BoS portray it as arrogant, dishonest, a belief system or personnel who found the initial philosophical not open to review. argument hard to grasp. In an interview with a How Now Shall We Live appears to be an science spokesperson for schools, I was advised to apologia for creationist Christianity to the obtain this book and learn how the adversaries of expulsion of all other religions. It is clearly an evolutionary teaching in schools functioned. Colson exposé of how to resist science. writes capriciously and irresponsibly, making no Education experts on Boards of Studies (BoS) effort to learn the scientific principles behind what in two Australian states have suggested a policy he criticises. My BoS informant said she found of “know thine enemy” when estimating the the first 40 pages difficult, the rest, offensive. My effect this book has on teachers and students.The description of the book is what the Australian Encyclopedia of Human Evolution (1992) contains Skeptic calls ‘upchucky’. The book turns turgid a full page statement to the effect that students and redundant in its closed mindedness, not just who want to give equal weight to creationism will towards science, but also towards all world religions not be catered for. And the simple reason for this with the exception of creationist Christianity. necessary caution? Creationism is not science. The proselytising goes on for 634 pages(!), using Chief author of the religious treatise under children in many examples. Colson describes a child scrutiny, Charles Colson graduated in 1969 from or teenager who finds religion boring, does not Brown University, US, and holds a Juris Doctor’s attend church with their parents and is an outlaw degree, which ought to in other ways. In each case, rebellious teenagers have given him some suddenly become converted, meek and mild. balance. He has been Colson takes exception to abortion, divorce, awarded the lucrative sexual individuality and school curricula that deal Templeton prize. His with humans as animals. He abhors the word co-author, Nancy ‘species’ because, he says, the Bible tells us ‘kinds’ Pearcey, is a senior can’t change (p87). fellow of the Discovery Colson manages to traduce Galileo, Newton, Institute. In 1974, David Hume, Charles Darwin, Einstein and many Colson pleaded guilty others safely dead. He claims that Copernicus was to charges related to “inspired not by the scientific facts he uncovered Watergate after being but by his Christian faith.” (p425). He says much ‘special council’ to the same of Kepler. Richard Nixon. He Of Darwin, Colson tells us that he only spent 7 months in jail publicised his findings because he was committed and around this period to the philosophy of ‘naturalism’. On p94 he insists in his life ‘saw the light’ that Darwin is only held in reverence because of Christianity. he depicts humans as morally autonomous. This Co-author, Nancy amounts to calumny. Has he read The Origin of Pearcey, had input into Species with any attention at all? Darwin knew that a book called Pandas he would not be thanked for opening people’s eyes and People, a book very to the truth and so he spent an inordinate amount much deplored not of time making sure that he was right. only by scientists, but Individuals in historical time may or may not also, I understand by have been religious in Colson’s sense. He seems mainstream Christians certain that the American founding fathers were 46 The Skeptic September 10

‘religious’ and yet some are thought to have been that a whale used to be a land animal related to atheists, and this is borne out by their writings hippos? He makes no secret of the fact that to and their wisdom in keeping religion out of consider humans as animals is an affront not only schools. Unfortunately in some states, this has to us but, worse still, to God! Perhaps he forgets become threatened. that there are many Christians out there and Very occasionally Colson has a go at a living others from other religions who have no trouble author. He castigates , subjecting in accommodating belief that God could have Darwin’s Dangerous Idea to scrutiny. He claims masterminded evolution. that the book fools people into thinking that The hash that this man makes of science churches and rituals be relegated to “cultural should not pass without condemnation. zoos” (Dennett’s phrase) “for the amusement of onlookers”. Of scientists, Colson claims that their Ethics and science ethical understanding has not kept pace with Nancy Pearcey is a little more restrained and their brilliant discoveries. “As a result, science and sensible. She questions the teaching of ethics in technology blunder on without moral guidance” place of religion in some schools and sees that (p421). He refers to “the rejection of the idea philosophy of this kind will mean that the young of creation that led to the loss of an eternal law. will have no teaching of moral values. This is an And this, in turn, was the result of a new view of over statement, as most good parents will realise, science that turned the very idea of knowledge on having instilled morals themselves. But she is its head.” (p418 ). This is not only an outdated correct in that there is no certainty about which way of seeing science, but a travesty of the truth. teaching will be effective. What takes root in child It is the assumptions made that are so character depends largely on what happens in damning to anyone with any sort of critical their formative period. Many parents would not sense. The endless repetition of the subject take kindly to being told: “Only the Christian matter and the assumptions of righteous holier- world view tells us how to develop virtuous than-thou attitudes make the book extremely character, to become moral persons.” (p379). irritating. But he has to use devices in order to It is reasonable to give Jerry Coyne, the make the book credible at all. And what are gentlemanly author of Why Evolution is True, Colson’s qualifications? He freely admits that some sane last words. “Most of us do need he was no good at physics (p427). So why does meaning, purpose and moral guidance in our he claim to be an expert in biology, let alone lives. How do we find them if we accept that palaeoanthropology? evolution is the real story of our origin? That question is outside the domain of science. But Spurious claims evolution can still shed some light on whether Creationists seem to feel they can latch onto DNA our morality is constrained by our genetics. If our as being a method used by the Almighty. This is bodies are the product of evolution, what about quite bizarre as they give no credence to evolution. our behaviour? Do we carry the psychological Colson writes: (p85) “If you introduce a typing baggage of our millions of years on the African error into a report you are writing it is not likely savannah? If so, how far can we overcome it?” to improve the report.” He completely misses the And the answer – also from Coyne: “We are point that DNA and natural selection combine in the one creature to whom nature has bequeathed the evolutionary process of possible though not a brain complex enough to comprehend the laws obligatory change. He has apparently never heard that govern the universe. And we should be proud of genetic drift, which is probably the reason why that we are the only species that has figured out we humans are here at all - genetics and natural how we came to be here.” selection work together to present the results we see and that the time frame can be very long, - Reviewed by Helen Lawrence If creationists were more subject to the scythe of natural selection, scientists might be less flea References: bitten by them. For a long time, scientists thought ACARA. 2010. www.acara.edu.au it best to ignore them, but like one annoying Coyne, Jerry A. 2009. Why Evolution is True. mosquito, it has become impossible to do that. Viking. New York. On p87 Colson writes: “Suppose a fish Dennett, Daniel, C. 2007. Breaking the Spell: develops lungs. What happens then? Does it religion as a natural phenomenon. Penguin Books. move up the evolutionary ladder?” And he The Encyclopedia of Human Evolution.1992. (eds. answers his own question.“No. Of course not. Jones, Martin and Pilbeam). Cambridge University It drowns.” Has he never heard of a lung fish or Press. 47 f o r u m Health More Sweetness

In which is further discussed fructose, sucrose, claim that they were all based on research by one science and the quality of articles in The Skeptic. group (led by Phyllis Crapo), whose conclusions were overturned by later studies. In a comment on his blog I explained that they were conducted Chris Forbes-Ewan’s response ... by groups from around the world, not just by the Crapo group. n an Ockham’s Razor program (ABC Radio And contrary to David’s assertion that recent INational) and in the March edition of Th e research results support his case that fructose is Skeptic (30:1, page 14) I criticised claims made poisonous at any dose, a meta-analysis published in David Gillespie’s book Sweet Poison and in his in the prestigious American Journal of Clinical Ockham’s Razor program based on that book. I Nutrition [AJCN: 2008; 88:1419–37] concluded demonstrated that David has distorted much that, far from being harmful, fructose intakes of up of the evidence and grossly overstated to 90 grams (equivalent to 180g of sucrose) per day the case against fructose (which actually have a benefi cial eff ect on an important constitutes one half of sugar) as the marker of the risk of heart disease (HbA1c). sole cause of the obesity epidemic Furthermore, the authors state that fructose intakes and of many chronic diseases. of up to 50 grams per day are not associated with In his response (Th e Skeptic30:2, adverse eff ects on another indicator of heart disease page 44) David claims that “After risk (TG), and intakes of up to 100 grams per day detailed examination of the research have no eff ect on body weight. [Sweet Poison] concludes that there David also states that the American Diabetes is strong evidence” for these claimed Association (ADA) changed its position on the eff ects. value of dietary fructose for people with diabetes, If it were true that David had referred to “strong from initially advising its use, to “saying that added evidence” for his claims, I would have privately fructose should be completely avoided” [Sweet disagreed with him, but I would not have begun Poison, page 60]. Th is is illustrative of David’s this public debate. However, David actually claims propensity to both exaggerate and select only the that we can “be absolutely certain that fructose evidence that supports his position. is a killer of epidemic proportions” and it is a Here is the actual wording of the ADA position “miracle ... that we are not all dead in the face of statement [Diabetes Care (2008) 31:1 S61-S78]: the incessant fructose doping”. Th is is typical of the “In individuals with diabetes, fructose produces exaggeration and selective treatment of the evidence a lower postprandial glucose response when it that pervades his writings on the health eff ects of replaces sucrose or starch in the diet; however, this added fructose in the diet. benefi t is tempered by concern that fructose may For example, despite claiming to have accessed adversely aff ect plasma lipids. Th erefore, the use of “more than 3000 references” to write a book added fructose as a sweetening agent in the diabetic about the eff ects of fructose on human health, diet is not recommended.” David somehow managed to miss all the studies Th is position statement also includes the following conducted after 1985 on the eff ects of fructose on recommendations: human health! As a result, much of his case was • For weight loss, either low-carbohydrate or low- based on rat-feeding studies. fat calorie-restricted diets may be eff ective in the Animal studies cannot inform us of the eff ects of short term (up to 1 year) dietary fructose on humans; they can only indicate • Physical activity and behavior modifi cation are likely eff ects that then need to be confi rmed in important components of weight loss programs. human studies. I continually pointed out to David Th at is, there is no suggestion that fructose needs (initially without acknowledgement that I was to be eliminated from the diet, and (contrary to correct) that at least 19 papers exist on human David’s advice) the ADA stresses the importance of studies conducted after 1985. I also pointed out physical activity in weight control. that only a minority of those papers reported Further, on its website (www.diabetes.org/food- adverse eff ects on human health when participants and-fi tness/food/what-can-i-eat/sweeteners-and- were fed large amounts of fructose. desserts.html) the ADA also makes crystal clear David has fi nally admitted that human studies its position that sugar (which is the major source did take place, but he has changed tack to now of added fructose in the Australian diet) is not the 48 The Skeptic September 10

cause of type 2 diabetes: “The myth that sugar By grossly misrepresenting the scientific evidence, causes diabetes is commonly accepted by many David has exaggerated the case against fructose to people. Research has shown that it isn’t true ... an unethical degree. The biggest dietary risk factor for developing type Why would he have done this? Well, here is one 2 diabetes is simply eating too much and being plausible explanation. If David had written a book overweight - your body doesn’t care if the extra that provided a reasonable interpretation of the food comes from cookies or beef, it is gaining current state of the science of fructose and human weight that is the culprit.” health, concluding that excessive fructose intake David states that: “We are all eating way more is probably a contributing factor to the obesity sugar than we should. As a result we are all eating epidemic and may be implicated in several chronic much more food than we have in the past (because diseases, how many copies would he have sold? I of the way fructose affects appetite control).” suggest that the correct answer is very few. Grossly At the 2010 Annual Conference of the distorting the evidence allowed him to write a Dietitians Association of Australia, Alicia Sim sensationalist book that has sold many thousands and Alan Barclay of the University of Sydney of copies at about $30 per copy. presented a paper titled “Sweet Truths: is increasing In a comment on David’s blog, the president of fructose consumption an underlying cause of the the Australian Skeptics, Eran Segev, wrote: “I must obesity epidemic?”. They concluded that as our admit that I thought David had an interesting average body fat levels have increased, fructose idea until I heard him speak ... and noticed that he consumption has actually been decreasing. used all the usual tactics of pseudoscience (It’s all a David castigates me for admitting that I am not conspiracy to kill you! It’s a miracle we’re still alive! an expert in biochemistry. (Although I majored in ‘They’ don’t want you to know it! All the scientists biochemistry in my Bachelor of Science degree, I have been bamboozled, but I alone found the have never worked as a professional biochemist.) truth!). As a result, he claims that most of his book was “I then realised that David had nothing “opaque” to me. David, on the other hand, has interesting to say. Not because he was wrong - I neither qualifications nor professional experience, was not in a position to judge - but because he was but believes he has enough expertise to flatly ‘not even wrong’, which is to say he himself has no contradict the nutrition experts within the National ability to judge his own idea. In skeptical circles, we Health and Medical Research Council who write call such a person a quack.” the Dietary Guidelines for Australians (which he Contrary to David Gillespie’s unsupported has described as “ancient”). And as I explained claims, no-one knows exactly why most of us are on his blog: “There is no need to go into David’s getting fatter. In addition to excessive fructose understanding of the biochemistry of fructose; it is consumption, there is a long list of purported irrelevant to my criticism ... of David’s treatment causes or contributing factors to the obesity (or rather abuse) of the science behind his claims.” epidemic. It is not appropriate to claim, as David By implication, David also effectively accuses does, that consumption of added fructose is the Defence Science and Technology Organisation indisputably the sole cause of the obesity epidemic (DSTO, my employer) of poisoning members (and of many chronic diseases) and that added of the Australian Defence Force because DSTO fructose is harmful in any dose. recommends the inclusion of sugar and sugar- sweetened foods in ration packs. Chris Forbes-Ewan According to David, high intakes of sugar lead Scottsdale TAS inevitably to obesity. Yet in the quarter of a century I have been studying and observing infantry and special forces soldiers engaged in field exercises or ... and David Gillespie’s rejoinder training while eating ration packs, I haven’t come across one obese soldier (among thousands studied or observed). A scientific hypothesis is valuable hew! For a while there I was worried Chris only for as long as it makes predictions that are WForbes-Ewan would get all the way to confirmed. I wonder how David explains this the end of our little discussion without wheeling failure of his hypothesis. out the dodgy research sponsored by the sugar In his book Avoid Boring People, James Watson, industry. Thankfully he hasn’t let us down. Nobel Prize winner and co-discoverer of the nature Chris cited Livesey and Taylor’s ‘meta-analysis’ of the genetic code, states that scientists must which concluded that it was perfectly safe to eat exaggerate when writing for the general public. But 90g of fructose (180g of sugar) a day. The article is Watson says that the exaggeration must be ethical. such a flagrant example of sugar industry ‘science’ 49 f o r u m Health

Still more Sweetness since the early 1970s, while overweight and obesity has doubled”. Continued... When you put Australian sugar availability numbers on a graph, they look like Figure 1. that it prompted editorial castigation1 in the Sugar availability (for domestic consumption) very same issue of the Journal. Chris must have is highly variable. But it’s obvious that if you missed that bit, so here’s a brief summary. are very careful about picking which peak The authors of the editorial (from the and trough you compare, you could certainly Division of Nephrology, Hypertension and conclude that consumption has dropped Transplantation at the University of Florida) between (say) 1978 and (say) 1999. It’s also point out: obvious that the trend line tells a very different • The study is industry sponsored; story. • The study is a highly selective overview of Dr Barclay is the chief science officer 42 of the 3331 available studies on fructose (and occasionally acting-CEO) at Glycemic ingestion; and Index Ltd. It exists to dispense GI Symbols. • The meta-analysis was seriously flawed in Prospective supplicants submit their fare for that it involved comparing randomised and testing, pay the ‘testing fee’ and (if adjudged nonrandomised studies of differing designs, worthy) receive a little blue G that they can mixed populations (diabetic and non- display on their labels. In return for using diabetic, lean and obese), different control the symbol the manufacturer hands over a diets (including some sucrose-based diets that percentage of the sales of the product. contained fructose), different study durations, CSR has managed to get a GI symbol slapped and limited endpoints. on its Low-GI sugar. So, should we really then The authors were paid to do the study by be surprised to find Dr Barclay suggesting sugar Danisco Sweeteners. Danisco is one of the is not bad for us? world’s largest sugar product manufacturers, Chris says his employer’s relationship with with an annual turnover of $5.5 billion. Nestle doesn’t influence his view of the science. Danisco is also the manufacturer of Fruisana, I suspect Dr Barclay would say the same crystalline fructose. thing about CSR (as would Dr Livesey about Chris also managed to dig out something a Danisco), but I prefer science about the safety little more local to support his argument. He of sugar not to be sponsored by the folks who cites a paper delivered by Dr Alan Barclay at the make billions out of selling it. Dietitians Association Conference. They seem to have eluded Chris, but there I haven’t seen Dr Barclay’s paper (it hasn’t are quite a few recent (human) studies in the been published as far as I can tell and he non-sponsored camp. Take for example the ignored my request for a copy), but I’ve seen April 2010 study of over 6000 people (JAMA; the press release2 about the paper which quotes 2010; 303 (15):1490-1497) which concluded him as saying “consumption of fructose has there was a statistically significant correlation decreased by nearly 20 per cent in Australia between dietary added sugars and blood lipid levels associated with cardiovascular disease. Or Figure 1 how about the study released in August 2010 (Cancer Res; Aug 2010; 70(15):6368-5376) that demonstrated fructose fuels cancer growth. Then there’s the 2009 study which compared consumption of glucose and fructose (the two halves of sugar) directly. And guess what? That’s right, the people on the fructose diet ended up with increased (1.5kg) tummy fat, higher fatty triglycerides (which leads to heart disease) and 20 per cent higher insulin resistance (which leads to Type II Diabetes). None of this happened to the group on glucose. Don’t even get me started on the raft of recent studies which demonstrate strong causative links between fructose consumption and hypertension (and kidney disease). I didn’t do the science and you don’t need 50 The Skeptic September 10

to read my books to access it. But no matter and critically review etc until they come up how much the sugar industry, or Chris (or with the answers. Just because you have written Mr Segev) don’t like the way I say things, the a book and think the science is correct, doesn’t science supporting what I say is there in spades. mean someone won’t pull it to bits. Scientists are Fructose (and therefore sugar) makes us fat always trying to find the answers and to improve and very, very sick and no amount of selective things whether you like it or not. quoting or careful cherry-picking of industry- By the way, David is not the first to write on funded science will change that reality. this topic. Back in 1939, Dr Weston A Price wrote a book called Nutrition and Physical David Gillespie Degeneration. I am sure David would find the Cannon Hill QLD content and the brilliant research interesting. He may also be interested in the Price- 1. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, November 2008 Pottenger Nutrition Foundation which provides - www.ajcn.org/cgi/content/full/88/5/1189 information on nutrition and health. 2. Dietitians Association of Australia, May 2010, “Sweet I have also accessed David’s Sweet Poison truths: Eating sugar may not make you fat” web site (www.howmuchsugar.com.au). David has written an article entitled “Fluoride”. Naturally, as a dentist, I was drawn to this. Unfortunately, David, I also have to agree with ... and some further debate Chris’s statements when he reviewed your book that you make gross misinterpretations of the papers and you have little understanding of the basic scientific concepts involved. Some of what have to congratulate David Gillespie for is written is completely incorrect. I actually getting off his bottom so to speak David has attempted to read the scientific and writing this book. If it helps him, his family literature regarding fluoride and has not and some members of the community to eat a interpreted them correctly. Much like Chris more healthy diet, then I am all for it. critically reviewing your book, you have done Sweet Poison has raised some awareness of the the same in an area that you do not understand. problems caused by fructose and high fructose Exactly the same argument you used with Chris corn syrup (HCFS). when he reviewed your book. I first read the book in September 2009 as I agree with Carl Brewer (The Fructose I have an interest in sugar. I am a dentist and Debate) that fructose deserves serious attention sugar is the bane of a dentist’s professional life. and educated debated. Is David correct in everything he writes? I David has started something but serious have no idea. scientists need to take the baton now and deal A biochemist, a physiologist or like-minded with this issue. experts need to review his writings and references. For David to be taken seriously by Russell O’Sullivan the scientific community, he has to play by Brighton VIC their rules and that means pages of references that help him argue his case. He does list some of his sources of information; however, it is have been a supporter of skeptical not good enough. He needs to list specific Iorganisations, including yours, for many years. references for each point he is making. Making I support you because I have a Sagan-like belief broad sweeping statements like” there is a raft of in the necessity of counter-balancing the forces of studies” must be accompanied by the studies. unreason and superstition (including aspects of Also serious literature must not state “there’s religion). I welcome what I see as an improvement some pretty good circumstantial evidence”. in the quality and presentation of your journal David seems to take great offence with Chris over the last year or so, and would like to Forbes- Ewan critically reviewing his book (The influence you to make further progress. I recently Skeptic, 30:2, page 44). He writes “So why had been on the verge of ceasing my subscription would he (Chris) presume to critically review because of the standard of presentation and Sweet Poison” even when Chris admits he has no discussion: eg the extreme wordiness and low, or biochemical knowledge. poor, information content of some past material, This is what happens in the science field, also patronising and disdainful comments, which David. Scientists debate, argue, research, discuss, previous letter writers have noted. (I recall climate 51 f o r u m Health

Even more Sweetness in an unfortunate manner as averred to above, viz. “schoolboy howlers” followed by further Continued... aff ect-laden terms (pontifi cate etc), that I, and I suppose others, might regard as less than polite change and circumcision as examples.) Some and respectful. Th is is not mature intellectual writers and commentators have been informed discourse. about their subject at a level which makes their His overall criticism has little serious relevant copy of limited use and unlikely to edify many of substance, or useful comment or analysis, your readers. on the actual evidence for the key issues, And that brings us to the immediate stimulus like: Is it true that fructose is signifi cantly for this letter which is “Sweet Reason”, Forbes- structurally diff erent to other sugars? Is it Ewan’s feature ‘assessing’ the book and broadcast handled diff erently by our metabolic pathways? by David Gillespie. Th is suggests to me that the Is it relatively more injurious or toxic? Does journal is relapsing. I preface these comments it increase uric acid and cause dyslipidaemia? by stating my background, which is that of and so on. (A quick aside for your readers: the a retired medical doctor who is a researcher answer to all those questions is a scientifi cally and publishes papers in scientifi c journals and pretty defi nite ‘yes’: so what I infer is Gillespie’s acts as a referee for scientifi c papers. I have main thesis is on track.) not read Gillespie’s book but have listened Th e depth and perceptiveness in Forbes- to both protagonists’ ABC broadcasts. Th e Ewan’s comments is further illustrated by the amount of information circulating, and manner in which he refers to Lustig, who is a pressure on time, means the book may professor of clinical paediatrics at the University never get high enough on my ‘to do’ list. of California, San Francisco. Th is esteemed Th at is not to infer it does not contain professor has a large number of academic quality information and reasonable publications (about 100), mostly in prestigious suggestions; it seemingly does. Th at journals and many relevant to this discussion, is evidenced by Gillespie’s broadcast and is infl uential and respected in the fi eld. and response in Th e Skeptic [30:2]. Th erefore, to refer to him as “a well-known However, after reading Forbes-Ewan’s nutritionist” is inaccurate. To go on to say “he assessment, I would expect to be in a at least presents a science-based argument … better position to decide if I will read the although with … exaggeration and hyperbole” book, but I am not. makes Forbes-Ewan again look condescending Questions for readers of Th e Skeptic are: and uninformed. Th is is compounded because Did this book deserve comment/review space he then refers his readers to YouTube and does in Th e Skeptic? If so, has the assessor/critic the not even mention Lustig’s professorship and level of knowledge, experience and qualifi cations papers. One is entitled to infer that he may to enable them to comment on it critically or neither have read, nor be aware, of them. usefully? and, Are your readers subsequently much Forbes-Ewan as the assessor of this material wiser? For me the answer to the fi rst questions is, (and remember on radio he himself introduced ‘yes’, but to the others, probably ‘no’. his response to Gillespie with the descriptor Forbes-Ewan has a BSc in biochemistry, and of “critique”) does not, in my opinion, have not a PhD or a degree in human nutrition. He the knowledge, academic background or describes himself as a “professional nutritionist”. publication record to give much credibility or He has three publications to his credit that gravitas to his comments, nor does their tenor appear in the NLM database between 1989 or content inspire confi dence in his perspicacity. and 2006, and has never held an academic I hope I have persuaded your readers of that appointment (ie university lecturer etc). In view, and of the view that the column inches my experience, that level of qualifi cations devoted to Forbes-Ewan have been not only and achievement are not generally considered minimally informative, but of negative value suffi cient to cause one to be invited, or and impact. Gillespie’s response was, perforce, considered suitable, to write assessments of books dominated by the necessity of responding to the or scientifi c work, even in non-scientifi c journals. less informative issues raised by Forbes-Ewan. One acknowledges that, in this instance, Th at demonstrates the vicious circle of less the book is by a non-scientist. Nevertheless, useful articles generating less useful responses. a cogent criticism must come from one well- Th e point of my explication is to raise the versed in the science. Forbes-Ewan’s criticisms important issue of the desirability of formalising contain their own errors. Th ese are expressed a quality standard for articles in your journal 52 The Skeptic September 10

and defi ning a review process to ensure their valuable, traditional source of food energy, and quality, relevance, accuracy and conformity to there is no basis for recommending increases or proper style. After all, it is an insult to waste decreases in its use in the general food supply or readers’ time with poor quality material. I in special dietary use products.” am sure, from feedback I have noted, that it Gillespie claims that the American Dietetic devalues the status of the journal and therefore Association disapproves of fructose. But its skepticism generally, especially in the eyes of fructose fact sheet says “Th ere is growing those non-regular readers who see it. A more agreement among obesity experts that fructose fruitful mission is to attract people who are does not promote obesity any more than other not already committed, but this, and previous carbohydrates.” http://www.fructose.org/pdf/ similar material, risks alienating intelligent and ADAFructosefactsheetfi nal.pdf infl uential opinion and support. And the ADA also says “Most scientifi c If those who adopt the role of skeptic are experts now agree that high fructose corn syrup not clearly perceived to be well-informed and sucrose produce similar eff ects on human (and politely persuasive) they will tend to metabolic responses. Studies comparing high be regarded negatively. Scepticism can easily fructose corn syrup and sucrose have found no become equated with denialism, as evidenced signifi cant diff erences in fasting blood glucose, in a recent New Scientist article on climate insulin, leptin and ghrelin. Satiety studies of change. http://www.newscientist.com/article/ the two sweeteners have found no diff erences mg20627645.300-take-the-political-heat-out- in appetite, feelings of fullness or short-term of-climate-scepticism.html energy intakes.” We need to be most careful not to veer I couldn’t fi nd any data to support Gillespie’s in that direction, which is where publishing opinion that there is no safe level of fructose more contributions like that of Forbes-Ewan’s beyond that which is contained in two pieces may take us. of fruit per day. I know some fruitarians who I close with suggestions. Th e editor and his would disagree with him violently! assistants, perhaps including some kind of panel My opinion, after reading the more recent of referees, would profi t by guiding prospective literature, is that the emphasis should be on authors in the matters of the etiquette and reducing total calorie intake, and that there style of their articles. Th ey should disallow is no reason to avoid fructose. Gillespie’s some of the types of commentary that have claim that fructose is a poison that is killing occurred. Th ey should more critically question us appears to be an alarmist over-reaction to if authors are adequately qualifi ed to write cherry-picked data. informatively on the subject. It is also helpful to be continually vigilant about the quality and , MD relevance of papers to the journal. The SkepDoc Puyallup WA USA Dr Ken Gillman Bucasia QLD

admit I have not read Gillespie’s book Sweet I Poison so I can only comment on what he said in his article (Th e Skeptic, 30:2 page 44). He claims that fructose increases circulating fat and uric acid, that it causes weight gain, and that it leads to diseases Th ese claims are inconsistent with the results of recent research. For instance, in two separate 2010 studies, fructose was not associated with higher levels of uric acid: http://www.ncbi.nlm. nih.gov/pubmed/20331537 and http://www. Editor’s note: Forum and article-length ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20193069. contributions on this subject have now closed. Recent studies show that fructose does not However, readers are still welcome to contribute increase lipid levels or weight. letter-length correspondence for the Letters section. An International Life Sciences Institute As is usual with such items, letters may be edited (ILSI) Expert Panel concluded: “Fructose is a for length. 53 f o r u m The Universe

in Physics in 2006) was asked at a presentation Cosmologies, Big publicising the launch of the Planck detector in 2007: ”Can you tell us what is your confidence in the big bang theory? Has the big bang ever Bang, and a free lunch happened? Are you really sure?” Smoot replied: “I am surprised that this question has been asked in In which our correspondents continue to discuss France. In the US I wouldn’t be quite surprised. I what came after, and possibly before have a very high degree of confidence that the big bang theory, or something close to the big bang theory, is a good description of the universe.” evin Rogers wishes to believe that the Kalam He pointed to the many pieces of evidence Kcosmological argument and the fine tuning that support the big bang model, chief among argument prove the existence of the Christian them being the spectrum of the cosmic microwave God. (The Skeptic, Vol 30:2, p54) background. But he acknowledged: “We don’t At most, they might possibly suggest that a have as much evidence as we have for the theory god or gods set in process the events that led to the of evolution, but there are people in the US who Big Bang some 13.7 billion years ago, maybe. question the theory of evolution too. Even so, even Of course, it also says nothing about the today, 40 per cent of Americans still think that nature of the god or gods. I would imagine that Genesis is literally true, and that the Earth was Kevin Rogers would be very disappointed if the created within the last 10,000 years.” god concerned actually turned out to be Zeus, We know that the ‘Big Bang’ is true, because or Aten, or one of the other thousands of gods it explains why the Universe looks the way it does humans have invented over the past tens of today. But it is very incomplete. For example, 96 thousands of years. per cent of the Universe (dark matter and dark Rogers sort of quotes the physicist Paul energy) is still inexplicable, so it is premature Davies. ‘Sort of’, because he is reported as saying worrying about ‘fine tuning’ when most of the or writing ‘interesting outcomes’, without context Universe still hasn’t been explained. or source cited, so I can’t check to see if Rogers has Quoting William Lane Craig’s statement accurately quoted him. the Universe has a cause that is “non-physical, Paul Davies was awarded the Templeton Prize transcendent, timeless and powerful” and also in 1995, the qualifications necessary for that prize “personal” is a nonsense. He is a Christian (which is more lucrative than the Nobel Prize) apologist; what else would he say? Time and space being that the recipient is a scientist and has said didn’t exist in this Universe before the Big Bang, some nice things about religion. Paul Davies also so there wasn’t anything we can recognise as being wrote a book Cosmic Jackpot: Why Our Universe is pre-existing for someone such as a god to decide to Just Right For Life, published in 2007, which is a cause to ‘explode’. very good account of the science of the Big Bang, Another Christian apologist (I think it might the Multiverse and the fine tuning argument. He have been Dinesh d’Souza) argued that science isn’t actually impressed at all by the fine tuning proves a god exists (it doesn’t), Christianity argument. promotes science (doubtful), therefore the Christian The fine tuning argument might be plausible god exists (which doesn’t follow from the first two if all the physical constants were able to vary over arguments, even if they were true). Paul Davies an infinite range,and if all the constants were made a similar argument in his recent book The independent of each other, and if life in the Universe Eerie Silence, claiming that the success of European is only possible with one combination or a very science was due to the combination of ancient limited number of combinations of the values of the Greek philosophy and monotheism, which again constants, and if different combinations don’t allow a doesn’t prove the existence of the Christian god. different chemistry of life. Actually, what Kevin Rogers should be doing Paul Davies doesn’t think that the Universe is proving the existence of the Christian god by is actually all that fine-tuned for life. Actually, the verifying the Christian myths. It should be easier Universe looks most sub-optimally tuned for life, for him to prove something happened less than in that there doesn’t seem to be life elsewhere, and 2000 years ago than trying to argue that what may most of the Universe looks extremely hostile to life. or may not have happened 13.7 billion years ago Kevin Rogers complains that the Multiverse is proves the existence of god(s). “speculative and unobservable”. Actually, so is the Big Bang. Wayne Robinson George Smoot (who won the Nobel Prize Kingsley WA 54 The Skeptic September 10

he Kalam cosmological argument cited by n “What matters…” [Th e Skeptic,30:2, Page TKevin Rogers (Th e Skeptic, 30:2, page 54) I54], Kevin Rogers gives part of the Kallam was argued in the Middle Ages when there was cosmological argument (KCA) and comments on no knowledge of the Big Bang and there was a objections raised to the third statement in that belief in a creator god who/which supposedly argument. As it was not Kevin’s intention to defend had no beginning, hence the argument had the KCA, he did not give it in full. However, the points: anything that begins to exist has a adding the two fi nal steps to the fi rst three given by cause; the universe began to exist; therefore the Kevin, we have: universe has a cause. Th at argument was used to 1. Anything that begins to exist has a cause. ‘prove’ that a supernatural creator god must have 2. Th e universe began to exist. created the universe. 3. Th erefore the universe has a cause. It can now be said that the cause of the 4. Th at cause is God (who is eternal). universe was the eff ects of the Big Bang. Th ere 5. Th erefore God exists. is evidence supporting the occurrence of the Big It is generally considered necessary to defi ne God Bang. Th ere is no evidence of the existence of to be eternal to avoid the “What caused God?” a supernatural creator god. Th e Big Bang was a counter-argument. However, I do not believe that natural event. Th e universe developed/evolved as it achieves that aim. a consequence of the eff ects of the Big Bang and Kevin touched on a concept that I believe did not begin to exist instantaneously. is challenging for the KCA, namely that as the Th e development/evolution of the three spatial dimensions are linked to time, the universe and the Big Bang itself were part of a concept of time only makes sense when the three continuum. Th e continuum would have had no spatial dimensions exist. If we accept the Big Bang beginning. Th e action bringing about the Big origin of the universe, time (and the three spatial Bang and the action after the Big Bang would dimensions) began with the big bang. have been by objects, no matter how sparse, Consequently, I fi nd some aspects of “eternal” moving along the line of least resistance. diffi cult to understand. For example, if eternal I would say that space must be infi nite as, is defi ned as “for all time”, then the universe is if there is a boundary to space, what is beyond “eternal” even though it had a beginning. the boundary? It would have to be more space. Th is presents three diffi culties for the KCA Time is merely the measurement of the duration (and there may be others). First, the eternal God of movement in space; it has no existence of it postulates could only have come into being at itself. It is not possible to measure the duration the Big Bang. Kevin states, correctly in my view, of movement before the Big Bang but it could that the Big Bang does not explain the cause of the be asserted that movements could have been beginning. Th us the cause of both the Big Bang occurring past-infi nitely. and the KCA’s eternal God remain unexplained Kevin says that the odds of the fi ne tuning (and having defi ned God to be eternal does not and the life-permitting properties of the universe avoid the question “What caused God?”). coming about by chance are astronomical and its Secondly, there are a number of possibilities for fi ne tuning is more plausibly explained if it was causation at the Big Bang, including: by design. A. God caused the universe. I submit that the properties did not come B. Th e universe caused God. about by chance and there was no designer but C. Neither caused the other. that everything that happened did so inevitably D.Neither could have arisen without the other. and were a consequence of the movements of E. Only the universe came into being at the Big objects along the line of least resistance after the Bang. Big Bang, no matter how complex interactions Th at the KCA only contemplates possibility A may have been. seems to me to be a major shortcoming. What faculties would a designer have had to Th irdly, as possibility E is the simplest, Ockham’s design a universe? How did a creator create? razor implies that it is the preferred possibility. Possibility E is not consistent with the KCA. Len Bergin Kevin also mentions the “fi ne tuning” argument Lower Templestowe Vic and states that “the fi ne tuning is far more plausibly explained if it was by design rather than occurring by chance”. I take this to mean that the “design explanation” has a higher probability of being correct than the “chance explanation”. Th e probability associated with the “design 55 f o r u m The Universe + Climate change

Cosmologies, Big Bang, theory that has a little bit more credibility. Most of the energy that we observe is and a free lunch definitely positive. This includes heat, radiation Continued... and mass-energy. Both Paul Davies and Steven Hawking have suggested that gravitational energy is actually negative and that the net explanation” is: (Probability that a designer existed) energy of the universe is actually zero. Thus the x (probability that the designer did a design) x universe, in Hawking’s words, is “the ultimate (probability that the design was implemented) x free lunch”. The problem for me is that the claim (probability that the fine tuning of that design was that gravitational energy is negative seems quite “right”). If an intelligent designer is assumed then unintuitive. Neither Hawking nor Davies explains the last of these probabilities should be 100% (or why gravitational energy should be negative, and close to it). However, I am not sure how the other indeed Davies has also stated that it is debatable. probabilities could be determined to allow any I have searched on the web for an meaningful comparison to be made. explanation. I was fearing that the explanation was deeply buried in the complexities of general Gordon Burbidge relativity and quantum mechanics. However, Eastwood NSW most sites appealed to Newton’s gravitational equations, which are quite simple to understand. n the Forum section (30:2, page 55) Brian The websites could be divided into two groups. IMarsh suggested that the universe could The first consisted of those that claimed that spontaneously come into existence through gravitational energy was actually negative. a non-supernatural cause because of the However, none of their explanations made any complementary nature of matter and anti-matter. sense. The other group stated that it was simply a His theory is that matter + anti-matter = nothing. convention to make the mathematics easy. Therefore matter and anti-matter can be created Gravitational energy is essentially relative, from nothing as a reversal of the annihilation rather than absolute. It requires positive energy process. However, there are a couple of problems to pump water up a hill and if you let water fall with his theory. downhill through a hydroelectric power station Firstly, matter plus anti-matter is not nothing. you can use it to generate energy. How far is it to E = mc2. It requires positive energy to create Adelaide? That just depends on where you start. matter or anti-matter. Anti-matter is not negative If you start in Adelaide, it is not very far at all. mass. It is positive mass and requires positive The convention used for gravitational energy energy for its creation. Brian seems to recognise is to assume that the zero reference is at infinite this at various stages in his contribution. At one separation. This means that as masses come closer stage he states, “Matter + anti-matter = nothing together then the gravitational energy reduces. + energy.” Then later he drops the energy term. Hence gravitational energy is negative according However, energy is not nothing. to that convention. However, this does not mean A positron is the anti-matter equivalent of that gravitational energy is actually negative. If we an electron. Electrons and positrons can appear assumed that the zero reference is at zero separation, spontaneously in ‘empty space’. This is because then gravitational energy would be positive. empty space is not actually empty. The whole As far as I can see, the problem with the of space is actually a sea of fluctuating energy. free lunch theory is that the Big Bang started It is the fluctuations in the background energy with zero separation. Thus, it requires positive level that allow electron-positron pairs to appear energy to push masses apart (or expand the spontaneously due to Heisenberg’s Uncertainty space between masses, to use a general relativistic Principle. However, when they recombine they perspective). So it seems that the net energy of annihilate one another and emit a photon of the universe must be overwhelmingly positive. energy. Thus, matter and anti-matter cannot This is just how it seems to me, but surely appear spontaneously unless there is prior energy. cosmologists as eminent as Hawking and Davies The other problem with Brian’s theory is that are not that silly. Can anyone out there provide the universe consists almost completely of matter, a clear and reasonable explanation of why rather than anti-matter. They are not symmetric. gravitational energy could be negative or how the Brian was attempting to provide a net energy of the universe could be zero? naturalistic explanation for the origin of the universe from nothing, but I am pretty sure he Kevin Rogers got his physics wrong. However, there is another Modbury SA 56 The Skeptic September 10

of goods? Th e magazineTh e Economist occasionally An economic climate publishes a Big Mac index by calculating how long the average wage earner in each country has to labour to buy a Big Mac, given that McDonalds In which we look at temperature projections strives to makes its product consistent worldwide. and industrial forecasts Economists most emphatically do not rely on the Big Mac index but that illustration should give you an idea of what is meant by PPP. ne of the very strange aspects of the current Th e IPCC went through the exercise of Odebate over global warming is that the working out just what the world economy will be various dire forecasts of temperature increases for doing over the next century, to produce a host of the next few decades depend, in part, on economics emission scenarios using diff erent values for the rather than science. Further they depend on a variables mentioned above, packaged into a Special particularly arcane part of economics where the Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) issued in 2000. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change It is available on the IPCC website. simply ignored standard procedures. Unfortunately, the IPCC economists used As is well known there are perhaps 20 diff erent MER analysis to compare economies, instead of computer models that use what scientists know, PPP, an approach which sparked a row between the or perhaps what they think they know, about panel and two distinguished Australian economists, the earth’s climate system including the detailed Ian Castles and David Henderson. Castles (now interaction of clouds, oceans, atmosphere, sunlight, deceased) was a former Australian chief statistician ice and land masses, to produce forecasts of global and David Henderson was formerly head of temperatures over a number of decades. the economic and statistics department at the But before the climate modellers can swing OECD. Th eir objections found favour with other into action they need hard fi gures on trends in economists (although very few seemed to be have carbon dioxide and industrial gas concentrations looked at the issue) but the IPCC dismissed their over the next century or so. As the increase of arguments, labelling them as “disinformation” in carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere a press release. In chapter three of the the 2007 has been linked to industrial activity, to make report the IPCC agrees that PPP should be used useful forecasts for those gases we have to factor in where practical, but says the relevent data is not increases in economic activity over the next 10, 20, available for a number of the economies in the 50 years and more, as well as changes in population forecast. In any case, the panel’s economists did not and energy intensity (the amount of energy used in think the end result would be any diff erent. generating economic activity). Henderson has since stated loudly and If that is not bad enough, the really tricky publically that the end result of the IPCC approach part is comparing the sizes of diff erent economies. was to wildly overstate the emission growth in high Th e easiest way to do this is to simply convert economic growth scenarios. As noted, the MER everything into American dollars, so the Chinese approach makes the economies of developing economy would be compared to the American economies appear smaller, but some of the IPCC economy by converting the total GNP of China in scenarios have those emerging economies growing Yuan to US dollars. Th en if you know something to be on a par with the US economy per capita, about emission intensity you can say something with correspondingly stronger exchange rates. In useful about total emissions generated by the two other words the economies of those countries are countries. set up to be small at the beginning of the scenarios Th e problem is that the market exchange rate and very rich at the end, with corresponding (MER) approach is known to produce wrong increases in emissions. answers due to vagaries in the exchange rates. In Th e SRES is now 10 years old but readers will particular, it is known to greatly under-estimate recall that at the Copenhagen conference various economic activity in developing countries which government leaders and assorted notables declared usually have weaker exchange rates. that emissions were at the top of the forecast range. Instead, economists use purchasing power How did they know that? Th e SRES has not been parity, which is a lot more diffi cult. One way of updated and no sources were cited or reasoning looking at this, which isn’t quite right but will do given. Th is point was simply asserted and was as an explanation, is how far will a dollar stretch in not questioned. Th at said, industrial emissions New York, as opposed to a yuan in Beijing, or how have undoubtedly been growing, particularly as many hours will someone earning the average wage China has been building coal-fi red power stations in either country have to labour to buy a set basket as fast as they can. It has been estimated that the 57 f o r u m Climate change + Energy

IPCC projections. On current tends – please An economic climate note, on current trends, with a long way to go yet Continued... – carbon dixoide concentrations in the atmosphere is not going to double by the end of the century. Chinese build the equivalent of far more than the total Australian generating capacity, or about one Mark Lawson tenth of the US capacity, each year. Whether that Hornsby Heights NSW additional activity is enough to deliver the increases required by the IPCC’s emissions standards is another question. For a glance at the measured Note:Th e material in this article has been concentrations of industrial gases in the atmosphere adapted by the author from his recently launched shows that there is a problem. book, A Guide to Climate Change Lunacy Concentrations of methane in the atmosphere – bad forecasting, terrible solutions, published levelled off around the turn of the century. by Connor Court. Although concentrations of CO2 have been Th e author adds: Th ose who want a few more increasing, they have not been increasing at the details and sources on the above material are rate required for the top range projections. An welcome to contact me on my climate debate attachment to the IPCC 2001 report sets out the email, [email protected]. I will equivalent of concentrations in the atmosphere for happily send sections of my book. Th e same the emission scenarios, after taking into account applies to those who doubted me when I pointed the IPCC’s view of length of time industrial gases out more than a year ago, correctly, that the stay in the atmosphere before being absorbed. direct warming of CO2 in the atmosphere is A comparison of projections with results show limited. Th e argument has been over secondary that the projections for methane are already warming or feedback eff ects in the climate wildly wrong and the real-world carbon dioxide models. Please contact me directly if you wish to concentrations are below the mid point of the dispute that point.

panels at a later stage. Our system cost us $13,000 Sun shines bright? towards which we received the government grant of $8,000. (Prices have come down and there have been changes to the government grant.) In which is discussed the benefi ts or otherwise of I monitored my system with the diligence of an solar power experimental physicist, albeit retired. We observed several days when we received more than 6kWh and many cloudy days when we received less than y family and I now have 18 months’ 0.5kWh. More importantly, over the full year, our Mexperience with a solar panel on a north average energy production was 3.46kWh per day. facing roof of our house at Tootgarook on the 3.46kWh per day corresponds to a continuous Mornington Peninsula, just south of Melbourne supply of 144 watts; enough to run two heated (latitude 38º 22’ 30’’ South). towel rails. Realistically, one would not run heated Prior to fi tting our photovoltaic (PV) solar towel rails continuously and certainly not during panels I did some calculations which led me the Melbourne summer. We are fairly frugal in to believe that it would not be particularly cost our electricity usage, our average daily use being eff ective. However, we proceeded for two reasons: 13kWh. During the period when we are away fi rstly, I did not have the courage of my conviction from the house, our average daily consumption is - surely I must have made a mistake in my 5kWh. It is sad to think that the solar panels do calculations since so many people were clambering not even provide enough energy to maintain the to obtain the government grant towards such a empty house! Why is this? What do we leave on? system. Secondly, I was motivated to ‘do something Th e answer is two refrigerators, a burglar alarm for the planet’. Now, one year later, we are able to system and a bore water garden watering system. report our results. (Th e pump on the watering system consumes 700 We have a basic 1kW system (see the note on watts and runs for 70 minutes every day when units at the end) comprising six solar panels with a there has been insuffi cient rain to trigger my ‘don’t total area of 7.25m2. We fi tted a 1.25kW inverter bother’ switch.) with the thought that we might add additional My PV system therefore provides some 26 58 The Skeptic September 10

per cent of our electricity needs while we are in hot water system whereby the working fl uid is the house and 69 per cent of our needs when the circulated through a panel on the roof. house is empty. Finally, whether you believe carbon dioxide to Th is is not impressive, but could it be that my be a pollutant or a fertiliser, we are going to run system is not working correctly? I have recently read out of fossil fuels: oil, gas and coal. Not in our Prof David MacKay’s excellent book, Sustainable lifetimes but possibly in that of our grandchildren. Energy – without the hot air, in which the professor So we need to be looking at alternatives. Sadly, performs all manner of ‘green’ calculations. Using many of the alternatives that are currently being data from this book I fi nd we can reasonably expect canvassed have as much verisimilitude as domestic to obtain an average of 20 watts for every square PV panels. It is imperative that all people who metre of solar panel. Doing the calculation for wish to ‘do something’ become familiar with our system, this gives an expected energy yield of the numbers. Th e calculations are, in the main, 3.48kWh per day. Th is is within a whisker of our no more diffi cult than those I have used in this obtained result, so there is no evidence that our short paper. If you wish to calculate the effi cacy system is at all defi cient. of solar panels, wind power, wave machines, tidal However, it is not all bad news. Our electricity barrages, biofuels, etc, the best place to start is supplier, Origin, will buy from us the electricity with David MacKay’s book and the good news is we generate but do not use - the net buy back that the book is available free on the internet. arrangement. We are charged 16.8 cents for every As a parting shot, let me give you an example. kWh of electricity we buy from Origin, whereas Using data from Mackay’s book, I can fi nd the they pay us a feed-in tariff of 66 cents for every calorifi c value of petrol and hence calculate what kWh of electricity we sell to them! For this reason, my daily free 3.46kWh of energy would do for me and because our main usage of electricity is after in the family car. And the answer? It would allow dark (including the use of the bore water), we me to drive at cruising speed for 2 minutes! When, are perhaps on to a winner. We gain in two ways: in time, I change to a more effi cient electric car, I fi rstly, we use some of our own electricity rather will be able to cruise for fi ve times as long! . than buying it from Origin, and secondly, we sell to Origin some of the electricity we generate Tony Heyes but do not use. Th is makes the calculation a Doncaster East Vic little complicated but when done shows that our electricity bill has been reduced by 40 per cent. Author’s notes on units An important question is how long will it take • Power, either produced or consumed, is to pay off our investment? For our investment of measured in Watts. 1000 Watts is a kilowatt $5000, it will take 10 years. Had we not had the (kW). government grant, it would take 27 years. • Energy, either produced or consumed, is the Th ese are P/E ratios of 10 and 27 respectively product of power and the time for which the (see the note below). Clearly it would have paid us power is ‘on’. It is measured in watt-seconds, to have invested the $5000, not to have bothered or in our case, kilowatt-hours (kWh). 1kWh of with the PV system and to have paid the higher energy will light a 40 watt globe for 25 hrs. electricity bills. • Price/earnings ratio (P/E) is a unit used in Th e German government has just decided fi nance. It is the cost of an investment divided sharply to reduce the tariff it pays for solar PV by the earnings per year. It has units of time, ie on the grounds that it’s a waste of money. After years. Th e current P/E ratio for Telstra shares stimulating the installation of 230,000 solar roofs is 8.9. Th at is, if you spent $5000 on Telstra at a cost of E1.2bn, they discovered that the total shares today you could expect to have got your contribution to the country’s electricity supply was money back in dividends in 8.9 years. Th at is 0.4 per cent. On March 2, 2010 George Monbiot $5000 of earnings and you would still own the wrote a piece in Th e Guardian, entitled “A Great original $5000 dollars worth of shares, which Green Rip-off ”, in which he explains how the new may well have experienced capital growth. UK feed-in tariff s are “extortionate, useless and deeply regressive”. References In conclusion, what do we do if we wish to ‘do MacKay, David JC. Sustainable Energy – without something for the planet’ and not to squander our the hot air, UIT Cambridge, 2008. Available free money? Firstly we should insulate our houses by online from www.withouthotair.com means of loft insulation and by cutting out drafts Monbiot George, the Guardian, March 2, 2010, [obviously using a reputable installer using reputable A Great Green Rip-off , www.monbiot.com/ products – Ed]. Secondly we should install a solar archives/2010/03/01/a-great-green-rip-off / 59 r e g u l a r s Horoscope Your Stars: september 2010 With our Astrologer Dr Duarf Ekaf

Aries: 19 April-13 May Ophiuchus: 30 November Your dream to be leader of -17 December the Labor party will one People of your star sign like day come true. Just join trivia, so here is some for the end of the line. But you. Did you know that maybe politics is best people of your star sign left to someone from like trivia? Did you one of those lesser know that an anagram star signs. of ‘astrologers’ is ‘large torsos’? Taurus: 14 May-19 June Sagittarius: It’s time to hang 18 Dec-18 January up your hang ups Don’t listen to and hook up to get people who tell a leg up before your you to remove your time’s up and you beat earplugs.... I said yourself up. Remember DON’T LISTEN it’s up to you to one TO PEOP... HELLO? up yourself. Yes, life is HELLO!? Okay... fine. looking up. Capricorn: Gemini: 20 June-20 July Your habit of showering in the 19 January-15 Febuary nude does not wash well with your They say that “money makes the neighbours ever since you fixed the world go round” but the stars would hole in your bathroom wall. But now Virgo: 16 September-30 October disagree. Something to do with gravity you might be in for a streak of good The planets have two pieces of .. science ... oops. Sorry about that. luck. Never let it be said that ... advice for you that I’ll condense into I should know better than to use the one. Those who throw glass houses “S” word in an astrology column. Cancer: 21 July-9 August shouldn’t rock the boat they live in. This month your lucky Lotto numbers How profound is that!? If you work Aquarius: 16 Febuary-11 March will win at last. Trouble is everyone out what it means you’re doing better Like the insects on your dog, time born under your star sign will also than me. ticks and fleas. Make the most of your win. So be ready to split your prize day and night and the next day and between you and about 1,833,333 Libra: 31 October-22 November the night after that by reading my others. Remember to send me 50% With Earth moving into the sign of ... new book, “Stop wasting time and do of your winnings for my accurate no ... I don’t think it works that way. something with your life”. prediction. Why is the Earth never mentioned in astrology columns? I guess we’ll have Pisces: 12 March-18 April Leo: 10 August-15 September to wait until people are born on Mars. The sign of the Ring Worm enters Even though you are disappointed the house of Achilles which is not in being unable to overdose on Scorpio: 23 November- 29 November good news for you. The good news is homeopathy, your homoeopath is The stars are telling me of great things I can change your star sign for a very delighted you tried. Better stick to for you this month. Yes, the stars talk low fee. Your lucky boat has yet to products found in your pharmacy like to me. I mean they really talk to me. come in. . ear-candles, anti-snoring acupuncture They have brains and mouths and finger rings and ... oh dear ... shout really, really loudly! Mostly they homeopathy. say “OUCH! IT’S BLOODY HOT!”

60 l e t t e r s To the Editor The Skeptic September 10

Most recently, the discovery that genetically modified canola is What you think ... thriving in the wilds of America and has become a common weed in South Dakota shows that GE supporters SETI’s future claim that genetically modified crops and regulators have been deluding are “substantially equivalent” to themselves and the public by claiming conventional varieties would also fall modified genes would not survive udging by The Skeptic, 30:2, p40, under Clark’s fallacious argument in wild populations due to selective Jit appears that we have already #6, “Argument by slogan”, and #38, pressures. made contact with extraterrestrial “Unfounded generalisation”. Naturally (I am a skeptic, after all), ‘intelligence’, because Rex Newsome’s One also frequently encounters I will be happy to supply references for logic about SETI clearly comes from statements that genetic modification all above statements on request. another planet. For example, he and GMOs do not entail any new Oh, I forgot to mention an grasps that temperatures can get up categories of risks, ie any types of important point: the biotech industry’s to millions of degrees - which they risks that are not raised by traditional widespread use of Theo Clark’s fallacy do, inside stars - and then imposes a means of breeding or otherwise #10, “Burden of proof”. Doesn’t it 20 degree range for life, so that one developing new varieties of organisms. seem that prudence dictates that anyone set of aliens might survive between Such statements are inconsistent wanting to introduce a potentially 950,000°C and 950,020°C but not with the reality posed by the dangerous substance or organism into outside that range. extraordinary speed at which genetic the environment must prove that doing Apart from being bizarre modification allows radical changes so (ie that the substance or organism) anthropocentric logic, this is trying to be made in organisms (including is safe, rather than demanding that to approach SETI from the wrong in microorganisms such as viruses someone else prove it isn’t? angle, as does the Drake equation and bacteria as well as in fungi, algae, New topic: when I lived in Oz - for which see http://xkcd.com/384/. plants, and animals of all phyla), which a couple of decades ago, I joined the Unpredictable forms of life are being clearly raises new risks in terms of: the Australian Skeptics. I left because discovered - around deep-sea volcanic ability of ecosystems to adapt gradually; I felt disappointed at the group’s vents, for example - and there are new the ability to anticipate environmental apparent unwillingness to take on species that breathe the iron of the and health effects; and the ability to the biggest and most destructive Titanic. SETI is very cheap compared adapt - or develop new - regulatory supernatural/paranormal belief (system) to other wastes of money, there are regimes to effectively, efficiently and of all: religion. I’m pleased to see that spin-offs, and something good might credibly manage the risks associated has changed some, but I think the come of it. with particular GMOs. Australian Skeptics need to increase The biotech industry and its efforts in that direction. Steve Roberts cheerleaders, within and without In any case, I send my best regards Melbourne Vic government(s), indulge in extreme from across the Tasman. forms of fallacies #27 & 36. Because neither industry nor government Colonel Bob Jones funds research into the dangers of Waiotehue NZ Food biases&GM GMOs, very little such research is done. What little research has been done (as, for example, by legitimate n The Skeptic(30:2, p30), Warren and respected scientists such as David Repressed IBonnett says: “Food, for instance, Quist and Ignacio Chapela, Arpad is rife with biased writing, particularly Pusztai, Irina Ermakova, and others) memory around organics and genetic shows the dangers are considerable. modification.” He is so right. In spite (or, rather, probably because) Much of the writing about of the overwhelming preponderance hat Wilson and French genetic engineering and genetically of the evidence showing that the Wadmirably demonstrate in their modified organisms resorts to what risks of allowing genetically modified article “Thanks for the Memory” The( Theo Clark in the same issue of The organisms and their products into the Skeptic 30:2, p22) is how difficult it Skeptic (page 40) refers to as “Factoid environment are great, the biotech is to investigate something properly propagation” (fallacious argument industry and its supporters (including when you have already made your #14), “Stacking the deck” (#36), the US FDA) conveniently ignore mind up. To make the claim (or or “Observational selection” (#27). the genuine scientific results that are endorse it as they obviously do) that The FDA’s (and biotech industry’s) available. there is “no evidence” for the existence 61 l e t t e r s To the Editor

Repressed memories, as Wilson and French seem I shoot this one down? to think. Anyone can visit the Rendlesham memory Continued... But not content with completely Forest today and see the same ignoring a vast amount of inconvenient lighthouse beams, airfield beacons, of repressed/recovered memories is material, they go on to suggest some sort meteors and farmers’ flashlights that simply farcical. A little bit of research of a link between repressed memories and a few drunk Americans saw in 1980. uncovers mountains of scholarly articles a belief in the paranormal. This is simply But don’t bother, because you can see and studies published in respected guilt by association, an old trick used to it all here: http://www.ianridpath. journals, including cases where cover up a weak argument. Lacking real com/ufo/rendlesham1a.htm. recovered memories have been verified evidence, you resort to smearing your The radiation levels at the site by third parties: either by eyewitnesses opponent by linking them to something were not above background, contrary or through perpetrator confessions. obviously loopy and hope the mud will to what R. Hadley still believes. Check out jimhopper.com if you don’t stick. I’m only surprised they couldn’t I’m sorry to adduce facts that spoil believe me. Let me quote Scheflin manage to work in a connection to Hitler a good story, but this was one of and Brown (The Journal of Psychiatry or Charles Manson. I don’t expect to the best UFO sightings and much and Law 1997): “A total of 25 studies come across any real investigations in The treasured by the Poms as “their own on amnesia for CSA now exist, a lot Skeptic, but this latest piece of rubbish is Roswell”. Jenny Randles, a notorious of which demonstrate amnesia in a a new low even by your standards. UFO ‘researcher’, used to go berserk subpopulation; no study failed to over this example, but she has now find it, including recent studies with Duncan Hackett recanted, saying “One might even be design improvements such as random Adelaide SA tempted to argue that if a UFO case sampling and prospective designs that like Rendlesham falls, then none is address weaknesses in other studies. A safe. The whole mystery may collapse reasonable conclusion is that amnesia into misperception and witness for CSA is a robust finding”. Now I’m Rendlesham UFO exaggeration.” no expert, but that sure sounds like However I will not “rest my case” evidence to me. very religion has its non-believers, - I remain open to investigating all The fact that some false memories E and much though I hate to phenomena, wherever the pursuit for can be induced in some people under disparage his beliefs, now that R. truth may lead. certain circumstances actually proves Hadley (Letters, The Skeptic 30:2, very little. It certainly does not disprove p60) has “rested his case” over the Steve Roberts the entire thesis about repressed Rendlesham Forest UFO sighting, may Melbourne VIC

cryptic crossword solution BRAIN BUSTER SOLUTIONS

P I L E R A H S G N I Y A

S I L I A E O C 1. Let’s Roll Another One (but released as: Candy & A

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U D R U T O R R A P I S

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E C I R P A C S N I K W A D See more of Dr Bob’s Brain Busters at 62 http://www.skeptics.com.au/features/dr-bobs-quiz/ CELEBRATING AUSTRALIAN SKEPTICS 30TH ANNIVERSARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JAMES RANDI EDUCATIONAL FOUNDATION

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA NOVEMBER 26-28, 2010 AUSTRALIAN SKEPTICS 26TH ANNUAL CONVENTION Go to www.tamaustralia.org for ticket sales and other details

TAM_280x210.indd 3 22.05.2010 17:15:50 Uhr