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Alberta 2008 Provincial Election As Analyzed with PRP a Comparison of the First-Past-The-Post Results to PRP Results

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Alberta 2008 Provincial Election As Analyzed with PRP a Comparison of the First-Past-The-Post Results to PRP Results ELECTORALCHANGE.CA Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP A comparison of the first-past-the-post results to PRP results Dave Brekke and Ted Dean 9/1/2013 A compilation of the results of the 2008 Alberta provincial election compared to the results of PRP electoral system results using the same election data. Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP Summary To acquire proportional seats without adding seats, two adjacent ridings were made into one riding with the assistance of Alberta friend, Larry MacKillop. Eight-two ridings became forty-one ridings plus forty one proportional seats. The proportional seats helped reach a closer match between votes of political parties and seats won by them. Ten electoral areas were established to give relative closeness to proportionally elected MLAs and the voters who helped to elect them. Each electoral area had four, six, eight or ten MLAs, half representing ridings and half representing their electoral area. For electoral area results, see below. For more on how this system would work and other election results go to www.electoralchange.ca . The Riding of West Yellowhead is not included in this analysis to allow for an even number of ridings. That riding stays its present size, has preferential voting, but will not be in a proportional electoral area. 1 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP General Comparison of Systems on Alberta 2008 Provincial Election Results All Seat Groupings 10 Seats or Less Political Party PC Liberal NDP Wildrose Green Other Popular Vote of 82 Ridings 489,234 248,235 78,636 64,157 42,128 9,935 52.47% 26.63% 8.43% 6.88% 4.52% 1.07% Value of 1 Seat 1.22% 11,370 votes UNDER CANADA'S PRESENT FPTP ELECTORAL SYSTEM Total seats in this Analysis: 82 71 9 2 0 0 0 86.59% 10.98% 2.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% % Over / Under (-) Represented 34.11% -15.65% -6.00% -6.88% -4.52% - 1.07% Effective voters in the area out of: voters 442,823 52,793 10,616 0 0 0 932,325 TOTAL Effective voters: 506,232 54.30% Of voters 2 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP UNDER PRP Total seats in this Analysis: 82 45 22 6 6 3 0 54.88% 26.83% 7.32% 7.32% 3.66% 0.00% % Over / Under (-) Represented 2.40% 0.20% -1.12% 0.44% -0.86% - 1.07% Effective voters in the area out of: voters 484,146 246,786 64,562 56,145 19,979 0 932,325 TOTAL Effective voters: 871,618 93.49% of voters 3 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP Northern Alberta Ridings and Candidates in Northern Alberta Electoral district Candidates Votes % of Popular Vote Received Peace River PC Frank Oberle 7,412 56.89% 3,265 Liberal 288 2.21% NDP Adele Boucher Rymhs 2,450 18.81% 1,248 Wildrose Georg Beinart 2,878 22.09% 539 Green 0 0.00% Other 0 0.00% Dunvegan-Central Peace 13,028 PC Hector Goudreau 4,147 Liberal Bob Woken 288 NDP Nathan Macklin 1,202 Wildrose Dale Lueken 2,339 Green Other Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo 4,519 PC Guy Boutilier 7,903 64.15% 1,758 Liberal Ross Jacobs 2,867 23.27% 550 NDP Mel Kraley 976 7.92% Wildrose 0 0.00% 300 Green Reginald (Reg) Normore 573 4.65% 4 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP Other 0 0.00% Lesser Slave Lake 12,319 3,384 PC Pearl Calahasen 1,109 Liberal Steve Noskey 426 NDP Habby Sharkawi Wildrose 273 Green Bonnie Raho Other Grande Prairie Wapiti 5,145 PC Wayne Drysdale 9,914 62.99% 1,304 Liberal Augustine Ebinu 2,393 15.21% 829 NDP Manuella Campbell 1,661 10.55% 436 Wildrose Art Proctor 1,485 9.44% Green 285 1.81% Other 0 0.00% Grande Prairie 15,738 Smoky PC Mel Knight 4,769 1,089 Liberal John Croken 832 NDP Neil Peacock 1,049 Wildrose Todd Loewen 285 Green Rebecca Villebrun Other Lac La Biche-St. Paul 6,527 PC Ray Danyluk 10,964 72.94% 1,627 Liberal Alex Broadbent 2,325 15.47% 1,003 NDP Della Drury 1,392 9.26% 5 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP Wildrose 0 0.00% Green 350 2.33% Other 0 0.00% Bonnyville-Cold 15,031 Lake 4,437 PC Genia Leskiw 698 Liberal Justin Yassoub 389 NDP Jason Sloychuk Wildrose 350 Green Jennifer Brown Other Barrhead-Morinville- Westlock PC Ken Kowalski 15,796 69.16% 8,312 Liberal Leslie Penny 3,183 13.94% 1,804 NDP Rod Olstad 2,152 9.42% 927 Wildrose 517 2.26% Green Dan Evans 882 3.86% 479 Other Carl Haugen (SC) 309 1.35% 309 Athabasca- 22,839 Redwater PC Jeff Johnson 7,484 Liberal Bill Bonko 1,379 NDP Peter Opryshko 1,225 6 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP Wildrose Mike Radojcic 517 Green Phyllis Penchuk 403 Other 7 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP Proportional Seat Modeling Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Voters Paired Proportiona % +/- of pop Votes % Seat % +/- of pop vote Seats l Seats vote s PC 5 2 70% 4.15% 51,98 65.85 10 100.00 34.15% 51,989 9 % % Lib - 1 10% -4.00% 11,05 14.00 0 0.00% -14.00% 6 % NDP - 1 10% -0.93% 8,631 10.93 0 0.00% -10.93% % WR - 1 10% 3.82% 4,880 6.18% 0 0.00% -6.18% Green - - 0.00% -2.65% 2,090 2.65% 0 0.00% -2.65% Other - - 0.00% -0.39% 309 0.39% 0 0.00% -0.39% 78,95 51,989 65.85 5 % 8 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP Western and Central Alberta Electoral district Party Candidates Red Deer North 4,715 PC Mary-Anne Jablonski 11,854 56.86% 1,770 Liberal Richard Farrand 5,184 24.87% 560 NDP Shawn Nielsen 1,157 5.55% 630 Wildrose Urs Lehner 1,579 7.57% 463 Green Rueben Tschetter 1,072 5.14% Other 0 0.00% Red Deer South 20,846 7,139 PC Cal Dallas 3,414 Liberal Diane Kubanek 597 NDP Teresa Bryanton 949 Wildrose Ed Klop 609 Green Evan Bedford Other Whitecourt-Ste. Anne 6,019 PC George VanderBurg 14,486 62.20% 1,106 Liberal Mike Grey 3,658 15.71% 661 NDP Leah Redmond 1,637 7.03% 2,146 Wildrose Link Byfield 2,939 12.62% Green 571 2.45% Other 0 0.00% Stony Plain 23,291 8,467 PC Fred Lindsay 2,552 Liberal Bill Fraser 976 NDP Shelina Brown 9 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP 793 Wildrose Sandy Pariseau 571 Green Nora Shea Other Drayton Valley-Calmar 5,931 PC Diana McQueen 12,119 60.87% 846 Liberal Norma Block 1,695 8.51% 390 NDP Luanne Bannister 669 3.36% 1,053 Wildrose Dean Schmale 2,209 11.09% 1,877 Green Edwin Erickson 2,576 12.94% Other 643 3.23% Rocky Mountain House 19,911 6,188 PC Ty Lund 849 Liberal Norm McDougall 279 NDP Jorge Souza 1,156 Wildrose Fanie van Heerden 699 Green Jennifer Ripley 643 Other Wilf Tricker (SC) Innisfail-Sylvan Lake 6,967 PC Luke Ouellette 14,804 63.47% 1,539 Liberal Garth Davis 2,577 11.05% 702 NDP Tophie Davies 970 4.16% 1,215 Wildrose Wayne Edmundson 3,787 16.24% 545 Green Lisa Grant 1,063 4.56% 122 Other Anthony Haggarty (Ind) 122 0.52% Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills 23,323 7,837 PC Richard Marz 1,038 Liberal Tony Vonesch 268 NDP Andy Davies 2,572 Wildrose Curt Engel 10 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP 518 Green Kate Haddow Other 119 Bruce Hutton (SPA) Banff-Cochrane 4,727 PC Janis Tarchuk 11,643 53.84% 2,753 Liberal Patricia K. Robertson 4,953 22.90% NDP Anne Wilson 196 0.91% 575 Wildrose 2,372 10.97% 1,353 Green Dan Cunin 2,290 10.59% 172 Other Zrinko Amerl (Ind.) 172 0.80% Foothills-Rocky View 21,626 6,916 PC Ted Morton 2,200 Liberal Herb Coburn 196 NDP Ricardo de Menezes 1,797 Wildrose Joseph McMaster 937 Green Larry Ashmore Other Not Included in Paired Ridings West Yellowhead 4,206 PC Robin Campbell 1,932 Liberal Lisa Higgerty 1,054 NDP Ken Kuzminski 326 Wildrose Earle Cunningham 296 Green Scott Pickett Other 11 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Voters Paired Proportional % +/- of pop Pct Seats Seats % +/- of Seats Seats vote pop vote PC 5 1 60.00% 0.52% 64,906 59.48% 10 100.00% 40.52% 64,906 Lib - 2 20.00% 3.44% 18,067 16.56% 0 0.00% -16.56% 59.48% NDP - - 0.00% -4.24% 4,629 4.24% 0 0.00% -4.24% WR - 1 10.00% -1.81% 12,886 11.81% 0 0.00% -11.81% Green - 1 10.00% 3.06% 7,572 6.94% 0 0.00% -6.94% - - 0.00% -0.97% 1,056 0.97% 0 0.00% -0.97% 109,116 64,906 12 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP East and Central Alberta Electoral district Candidates Strathmore-Brooks 7,623 PC Arno Doerksen 14,609 71.74% 991 Liberal Gerry Hart 2,454 12.05% 313 NDP Brian Stokes 589 2.89% 935 Wildrose Amanda Shehata 1,997 9.81% 362 Green Chris Bayford 715 3.51% Drumheller-Stettler 20,364 6,986 PC Jack Hayden 1,463 Liberal Tom Dooley 276 NDP Richard Bough 1,062 Wildrose Dave France 353 Green Amanda Bolton Battle River-Wainwright 7,968 PC Doug Griffiths 14,981 79.57% 1,260 Liberal Horst Schreiber 2,086 11.08% 431 NDP Doris Bannister 913 4.85% Wildrose 0 0.00% 483 Green Will Munsey 847 4.50% Vermilion-Lloydminster 18,827 7,013 PC Lloyd Snelgrove 826 Liberal Robert Sawatzky 482 NDP Wendy Myshak Wildrose 364 Green Ngaio Hotte Leduc-Beaumont-Devon 13 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP 9,045 PC George Rogers 20,214 71.60% 2,329 Liberal Joyce Assen 3,672 13.01% 1,057 NDP Lisa Erickson 2,290 8.11% 1,008 Wildrose Sharon MacLise 1,008 3.57% 495 Green Kevin Colton 1,046 3.71% Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville 28,230 11,169 PC Ed Stelmach 1,343 Liberal Earl J.
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