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Market Commentary Multipg US B POLICY RESEARCH | US CHRIS KRUEGER Research Analyst T: +1 202-747-9469 [email protected] NOVEMBER 2, 2011 INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY WASHINGTON RESEARCH GROUP DC DOWNLOAD Debt Ceiling: Super Duper Subcommittee Formed Half of the Super Committee members have formed an unofficial super duper subcommittee within the 12- member Super Committee and are seeking to put together a $1.2T-$1.5T deficit reduction plan over ten years. The 6 bi-partisan and bi-cameral members are: Reps. Dave Camp (R-MI), Fred Upton (R-MI), and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) and Sens. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), John Kerry (D-MA), and Rob Portman (R- OH). These six are the leading pragmatists on the Super Committee. We are raising our odds to 1 in 3 that the Super Committee will recommend a deficit reduction plan similar to our Bland Bargain Plan of $1.2T in deficit reduction over 10 years. The Super Committee must report out its recommendations (requires 7 of 12 votes) by November 23. Reuters reports that “aides stressed that the six lawmakers are still in talks with the full super committee and have not splintered off. Instead, they are making an internal effort to try to broker a bipartisan deal.” It seems clear that the Republicans in this smaller group are aware that any deal that hits the $1.2T number to prevent the sequester trigger (across the board spending cuts that go into effect on Jan. 1, 2013) MUST INCLUDE REVENUE RAISERS. Reuters also reports that the super duper subcommittee is “acting with the knowledge and direction of congressional leadership in both parties.” The inclusion of Van Hollen in this group is significant because House Democrats will in all likelihood be needed to pass the Super Committee recommendations out of the House. The House and Senate must approve the recommendations by December 23. The recommendations enjoy procedural protections and may not be amended or filibustered. 66 House Republicans voted against the Budget Control Act (BCA), which raised the debt ceiling on August 2nd and created the Super Committee. 218 votes are required to pass the Super Committee recommendations in the House. If you assume the 174 House Republicans who voted for the BCA (vote results here) will vote for the Super Committee recommendations, you still need 44 House Democrats. The broad outline of the Bland Bargain of $1.2T in deficit reduction over ten years: $300B revenue raisers (the likely framework would be a 3-1 spending to revenue ratio) $216B interest savings o 18% interest savings on deficit reduction per the legislative language from the BCA $134B-$300B in Medicare/Medicaid o On the low-side of $134B, this would nearly equal the amount cut by the sequester trigger. Under the sequester trigger, Medicare providers are capped at 2% of projected Medicare spending over the next ten years. That amount is (pause) $6.5T to $7T. 2% of that is $135B-$140B. o See Rick Weissenstein and John Shepard’s list of potential cuts here. 1 mfglobal.com POLICY RESEARCH | US NOVEMBER 2, 2011 | DC DOWNLOAD $60-255B Chained CPI for inflation-adjusted programs o The top line number would vary on whether Social Security was included – these numbers continue to fluctuate depending on who scores the savings…such is government accounting. $200B relatively non-controversial spending cuts o Agriculture Subsidies ($20B-$40B) o Selling Federal Land ($15B) o Spectrum Sales ($15B) o Pension Reform ($80B) o Higher Guarantee Fees for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ($15B-$30B) o Reducing “waste, fraud, and abuse” at the federal level ($40B) $100B defense o Always a third rail, this is $100B over ten years and is FAR better to the national security hawks than a potential 16% cut to the Pentagon’s budget through the sequester trigger o This $100B would be on top of the $350B through the spending caps (using CBO baseline, not Pentagon), which is also FAR less than Simpson-Bowles or most others. Recall that there is still the wildcard of the War Savings Money. The CBO re-scored the “savings” from winding down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The CBO score was lowered from $1.1T to $560B. $560B is still floating in the deficit reduction ether and could be used to juice the total number. SHOT… "I enjoy flowers, like everybody else.” -- Herman Cain to Greta van Susteren when asked if he has a "roaming eye" on Fox Monday night …CHASER “Oh! Oh, look at this. It's a flower pot with the dirt in it. Actually, the real gift is what's planted in the soil. The bulb of a Jerusalem tulip. Which I was told is one of the rarest and most beautiful flowers in existence. Oh, right, right, the Jerusalem -- From the "Jerusales tulipesias" genus. Yes, yes. Hmm. Anyway, yeah, the guy said with regular watering, it should bloom in about six months, so…. Oh, we will look forward to that, Greg.” --Dina Byrnes, Jack Byrnes, and Gaylord “Greg” Focker, as played by Blythe Danner, Robert DeNiro, and Ben Stiller, in Meet the Parents RECENT RESEARCH Keystone XL: Nebraska Headlines Heat Up 2 POLICY RESEARCH | US NOVEMBER 2, 2011 | DC DOWNLOAD Solar Trade Investigations Likely to Commence Next Week MF Global Inc. 1055 Thomas Jefferson St., NW Suite 450 Washington, DC 20007 Tel +1 202-747-9450 Fax +1 202-747-9474 mfglobal.com MF Global Inc.’s Washington Research Group, Policy Research Disclaimer This report discusses public policy developments. Although this report may mention specific companies by name and/or specific industries and industry sectors, the author(s) has not conducted and has not included in this report fundamental or other analysis of the equity securities of the identified companies, industries and/or industry sectors. This report has not been prepared, is not intended, and should not be interpreted as a research report regarding any securities of any company. Investors should not purchase or sell securities based upon any information contained in this bulletin. MF Global Inc.’s Washington Research Group policy research provides unbiased, objective research and information to institutional investors about public policy in the legislative, regulatory, and judicial spheres in and around Washington DC. Our analysts do not advocate or lobby for any particular policy action. We do not recommend individual investments, and we do not conduct detailed security analysis. MF Global is not responsible for any errors or omissions in this market letter. © 2011 MF Global Inc. All rights reserved. Any reproduction or distribution of this report without the prior written consent of MF Global is prohibited. The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be reliable; we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Additional information regarding the information contained in this report is available from MF Global upon request. Because MF Global Inc. provides such information as part of a general information service and without regard to an investor’s particular circumstances, neither it nor its subsidiaries and/or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damages arising directly or indirectly out of any inaccuracy in the market letter or the use of such information. 3 .
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