CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION: A background paper to inform the Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management Plan SUGGESTED CITATION

Crowley, G.M. (2016) Climate change in the Southern Gulf region: A background paper to inform the Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management Plan. Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management, Mount Isa, Queensland.

ISBN 978-0-9808776-3-2

This report is licenced under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You are free to copy, communicate and adapt this work, so long as you attribute Southern Gulf NRM Inc.

DISCLAIMER

While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of this publication Southern Gulf NRM accepts no liability for any loss or damage that result from reliance on it.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This project was fund by the Australian Government’s Regional Natural Resource Management Planning for Climate Change Fund. My thanks go to Andrew Maclean (Southern Gulf NRM) for inviting me to undertake this project, and for providing guidance and feedback throughout. I also thank David Gillieson for his forbearance, proof-reading and GIS advice. Climate change in the Southern Gulf region: A background paper to inform the Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management Plan

Gabriel Crowley April 2016

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Indigenous people.Private sector employment approximately 23%,roughly 10timesthat for non- The Indigenous unemploymentrate in2011was Indigenous disadvantage intheregion ishigh. Island. Doomadgee Aboriginal Shire andonMornington and McKinlayShire, andhighest densitiesinthe region, withthelowest densitiesintheBurke Shire one personpersquare kilometre throughout the 35,000 peoplelivinginregion. There islessthan up approximately 22%ofthepopulation ofthe low anddispersed.Indigenous peoplemake The population oftheSouthern Gulfregion is Communities andIndustries nature refuges andIndigenous Protected Areas. increased inrecent years withtheadditionofnew forregion. nature Landreserved conservation has is asignificant feature ofthenorthwest ofthe (the remainder). TheBoodjamullaNational Park the southeast oftheregion) orleasehold land grazing undertaken onfreehold land(chiefly in The dominantlanduseintheregion iscattle invasion. grazing andlanddegradation, inparticular weed remains largely intact althoughdisturbed by grasslands andextensive coastal wetlands vegetation, mostly comprising tropical savannahs, Theremainingagricultural native development. region hasbeencleared, mostly for urban and Only around 5% ofthenative vegetation ofthe around MountIsa. plains anddissected uplandsinthesouth-west, Land systems oftheregion are mostly extensive the NorthernTerritory border. Carpentaria between Karumba andjust west of catchments that drain into thesouthernGulfof far north-west ofQueenslandandcovers all The SouthernGulfregion issituated inthe The region years was very muchabove thelong-termyears was very average. Southern Gulf’s wet season rainfall inthelast 20 to discern. However, despite recent droughts, High variability makes any trend inrainfall difficult period. 20 peryear to about40peryear overthesame of dayshotter than40°Chavedoubledfrom about than 1.5°Csince 1910.At Camooweal, thenumber the SouthernGulfregion haveincreased bymore intheregion.evident Average temperatures in The impact ofclimate change isbecoming 100 mminanother third. than 100mm,andexceeds theaverage byat least years, rainfall falls shortoftheaverage bymore Rainfall ishighlyvariable. Inaboutone-third of Summer maximumsfrequently exceed 40°C. minimum temperature exceeding 10°Cinwinter. Mount Isaapproaching 40°Cinsummerandmean humid, withmean maximumtemperatures at November andMarch. Theregion ishot and semi-humid inthenorth.Most rain falls between from semi-aridenvironment inthesouthto The climate oftheSouthernGulfregion ranges Climate Change Southern Gulfhasonlymoderate resilience. social impacts. At acommunity the level, economic fortunes oftheregion withassociated commodity prices, leading to rapid changes inthe these industries issubject to global fluctuations in the region’s most important industries. Eachof Mining, cattle grazing, fishingandtourism are andcommunitywith industry networks. ideas; new andstrongto links experimentandtry business management principles;preparedness upheaval: strategic planningskills;sound make themresilient to majorstresses and northern Australia possesscharacteristics to Only asmallproportion ofpastoralists across Indigenous people. of Indigenous peopleisonethird that ofnon- Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Predicted future change in the region’s climate is and mangroves, near-coastal wetlands and that: tropical savannas. Indeed, very little of the region • Average temperature will continue does not fall into one of these categories. to increase in all seasons • There will be more hot days and warm spells Refugia providing opportunities for plants and • Changes in rainfall are possible but unclear animals to minimise the adverse impacts of • Extreme daily rainfall events changing climate are very important priorities for will be more intense conservation effort in response to climate change. • Mean sea level will continue to In the Southern Gulf region, higher elevation (thus rise and the height of extreme sea cooler and free of flooding) areas and floodplain level events will also increase (thus generally wetter and more humid) areas are • There will be fewer, but more among the most important refugia. intense tropical cyclones The region’s vegetation communities are also Climate Change and Biodiversity expected to be influenced by climate change. Increased temperatures, intensity of wildfires, The Region supports diverse ecosystems, cyclones and flooding, and carbon-dioxide wetlands and threatened species. Species fertilisation (favouring shrubs and trees over considered a priority for climate change are tropical grasses), along with uncertain changes those which have been assessed as vulnerable to in rainfall, are expected to cause a reshuffling climate change and for which the Southern Gulf of plants and animals to create new ecological region provides significant habitat. Southern Gulf communities. These communities are still species considered a priority for climate change expected to have a recognisable savanna action are: character. However, weeds are expected be Marine: favoured by disturbance caused by increased Australian snub-fin Dolphin, Green Turtle, Green wildfire and cyclonic damage. Modelling based Sawfish on current vegetation extent and moderate and Riparian: extreme climate change scenarios indicates large Gulf Snapping Turtle, Freshwater Sawfish, Red shifts in vegetation will occur by 2070, however Goshawk, Star Finch. caution is required in the interpretation of the Terrestrial mammals: models because of the limited amount of baseline Julia Creek Dunnart, Carpentarian Antechinus data. Terrestrial birds: Kalkadoon Grasswren, Night Parrot, Gouldian Because climate change is likely to affect the Finch. nature and distribution of biodiversity in the Plants: region, it is necessary to take these changes into Pink Gidgee, Solanum sp. account in determining priority areas for future protection or investment. The Queensland Numerical modelling to predict climate change Department of Environment and Heritage impacts on biodiversity in the Southern Gulf Protection used a combination of biodiversity region tends to be less reliable than in other parts records and expert opinion to identify Strategic of Australia because of the relatively low density of Investment Areas (SIAs), which are either hubs, weather recording sites in and near the region and which are core areas of high biodiversity value, or because of relatively fewer biodiversity records corridors, which are interconnecting areas that that provide the basis for predictive modelling. In provide migration pathways between the hubs. this situation, expert assessment is necessary to supplement and validate numerical models. Environments that are in good condition are most able to survive climate stresses. Therefore, the The Southern Gulf region contains three of the ten best way to instil climate change resilience in Australian ecosystems that are considered most terrestrial environment in the Southern Gulf is to vulnerable to climate change, namely saltmarsh continue investing in best practice grazing, weeds,

Climate Change in the iv Southern Gulf region Indigenous economic development. and freshwater environments ispivotal for future for arts, crafts andlivelihoods.Access to water alsoprovide food,They medicinesandmaterials Indigenous people asceremony places. andstory wetlands, inparticular, holdspecialmeaning for change are culturally Waterways significant. and environment that are vulnerable to climate cultural heritage. Manyaspects ofthenatural Climate change hasseriousimplications for Climate change andcultural heritage equipped to adjustment. make thenecessary that onlyasmallproportion oflandholdersare pastoralists innorthernAustralia concluded changes Anassessmentof inmanagement. to place onthenatural resources willnecessitate The increasing stress climate change isexpected cope withanincreasingly climate. severe likely to hampertheabilityofsomepastoralists to ofdebthigh levels inthepastoral are industry particularly vulnerable to climate change. Also, communities inthenorthofregion willbe Economic disparity means that Indigenous anddamage anddestructioninjury ofproperty. and wildfires) alsoincrease theriskofphysical Natural disasters (droughts, floods,cyclones and affect theabilityofpeople to workoutdoors. have adverseeffects onhumanhealth in general increases intemperature of1-2°Cby2030will and to address threats to biodiversity. Predicted institute best practice production management of SouthernGulfnatural resource managers to Climate change willdirectly affect the capacity and community well-being Climate change andhumancapacity commercial andrecreational fishing. marine debrisandimprove thesustainability of to reduce predation onturtlenests, reduce change resilience willbeenhanced byefforts value area. For marineconservation, climate conservation agreements overhigh-conservation pest andfire andto management; encourage important for Indigenous communities. Gulf. Theconservation economy isparticularly enterprises andtheeconomy oftheSouthern improving theeconomic resilience ofindividuals, conservation economy offers opportunities for In additionto emission reduction, the the region’s woodlands applicable because oflowbiomassproduction of regrowth andavoideddeforestation are not emissions andsavanna burning.Tree planting, region; herd management to reduce methane reduction that havepotential intheSouthernGulf open market. There are twoforms ofemission Government at auction orto other buyersonthe generated from theseactivities can besoldto the extent season oflate fires. Carboncredits dry agriculture andburning ofsavannas to reduce clearance, reducing methane emissionsfrom includes tree planting, avoidingvegetation Government’s EmissionReduction Fund (ERF) eligible for fundingunder theAustralian or store carbon. Natural resource management management that reduces greenhouse emissions greenhouse gases, there isamarket for climate changeAs isdrivenbyincreasing to perform wellindifficultyears. than are thosethat overstock, andare most likely more profitable weather through periodsofdry enterprises that usemoderate stocking rates are of water, grain orgrass shortages. Pastoral of efficiency resource-use to minimisetheimpact adopting management practices that increase enterprises can prepare for climate change by land useandwater allocation. Once established, starts withmakingappropriate decisionsabout Building climate-resilience NRMenterprises opportunistic spread ofweedsandcattle ticks. disturbance from floodsandwildfires, and of thegrass), temperature increases, increased fertilisation (whichreduces thenutritionalvalue resources (water, soilandgrass) asaresult ofCO be affected byheat stress on cattle, degradation of impacts onlivelihoods.Pastoral operations will and humanhealth andwell-beingwillflowonto Impacts ofclimate change ontheenvironment Climate change andlivelihoods Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 2

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive summary...... iii The region...... iii Communities and Industries...... iii Climate Change...... iii Climate Change and Biodiversity...... iv Climate change and human capacity and community well-being...... v Climate change and cultural heritage ...... v Climate change and livelihoods...... v List of Figures...... vii List of Tables...... vii The Southern Gulf region...... 1 Environment...... 1 Land use...... 3 Table 1. Population of the Southern Gulf region Source of data: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2015)20...... 4 Community and economy...... 4 Climate...... 6 Southern Gulf climate...... 6 How the climate has changed...... 10 Future climate change and impacts...... 12 Climate change and biodiversity...... 13 Biodiversity values...... 13 Climate change impacts...... 17 Spatial prioritisation of conservation effort...... 25 Prioritisation of conservation actions...... 25 Climate change and human capacity and community well-being...... 31 Climate change impacts...... 31 Adaptive capacity...... 34 Climate change resilience...... 34 Climate change and cultural heritage ...... 37 Climate change and livelihoods...... 39 Climate change impacts...... 39 Entering the carbon economy...... 43 Conservation economy...... 45 Conclusions...... 47 References ...... 49

Image Credits

Cover - Isaeagle Photography, ii - Alan Mathieson, viii - Leonie Winks, 9 - Kerry Brisbane, 10 - Donna Connelly, 17 - J.Curley, 21 - J.Curley, 23 - Brent Clark, 25 - Russell Miller, 27 - Isaeagle Photography, 32 - Alan Mathieson, 34 - J. Curley, 36 - Donna Connelly, 38 - Lynette Estreich, 45 - Alan Mathieson, 47 - David and Annette Swaine, 48 - Alan Mathieson.

Climate Change in the vi Southern Gulf region Table 12.Potential for other conservation economy activities to contribute to SouthernGulflivelihoods . Table 11.Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from livestock ...... Table 10.Potential for SouthernGulfnatural resource managers to contribute to greenhouse gas reduction...... Table 9.Likely impacts ofclimate change onpastoral production andlivelihoods. Table 8.Recommended action for buildingclimate change innorthern Australian pastoralists. Table 7.Climate change resilience ofnorthernAustralian pastoralists...... Table 6.Potential impacts ofnatural disasters onpeopleandcommunities...... Table 5.Management recommended for theprotection ofSouthern Gulfpriorityspecies...... andrecovery Table 4.Climate-change-sensitive ecosystems oftheSouthernGulfregion...... Table 3.Priorityspeciesfor climate action intheSouthernGulfregion...... Table 2.Nationally important wetlands intheSouthernGulfregion...... LIST OFTABLES Figure 35.Eligible fueltypefor Savanna Fire Management projects...... Figure 34.Priority areas for tree plantinginQueenslandbased oncarbon values...... Figure 33.Australia’s greenhouse gas emissionsin2013...... Figure 32.Impact oftemperature riseonworkingconditions...... Figure 31.Strategic investment areas overlainbyrecords ofpriorityspecies...... Figure 30.Strategic investment areas overlainbyprioritythreatened ecological communities...... Figure 29.Strategic investment areas overlainbyNationally Important Wetlands. Figure 28.Strategic investment areas intheSouthernGulfregion...... Figure 27.Current andpredicted vegetation oftheSouthernGulfregion (a)current faunal distributions, and(b)2085climate modelling...... Figure 26.Priority landscapes intheSouthernGulfregion based on highlightingLawnHillGorge andprovinces that are elevated . abovefloodlevel Figure 25.Important areas for biodiversityresilience to climate change, Figure 24.Climate change-sensitive ecosystems intheSouthernGulfregion...... Figure 23.Density ofbiodiversityrecords across Australia ...... Figure 22.Priority plants for climate change action...... Figure 21.Priority birds for climate change action...... Figure 20.Priority mammalsfor climate change action...... Figure 19.Priority riparian speciesfor climate change action...... Figure 18.Priority marinespeciesfor climate change action...... Figure 17.Wetlands oftheSouthernGulfregion...... (a)amoderate projection (RCP4.5),and(b)anextreme projection (RCP8.5) ...... Figure 16.Expected temperature increases to 2045showingestimates under climateFigure 15.Key change messages for theSouthernGulfregion ...... affectingFigure cyclones andnon-severe 14.Numberofsevere Australia between 1970and2011...... Figure LIST OFFIGURES ...... Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion ...... 10 45 42 36 35 33 32 22 15 14 43 42 41 33 29 29 28 24 20 20 19 18 18 16 16 13 12 12 11 11 10 46 40 28 26 24 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM

THE SOUTHERNGULFREGION Grass DownsandNorthwest Highlands border (Figure 1).Theregion contains four distinct landscapes: coastal plains,eastern uplands,Mitchell drain into thesouthernGulfofCarpentaria between Karumba andjust west oftheNorthernTerritory The SouthernGulfregion issituated inthefar north-west ofQueenslandandcovers allcatchments that Environment Source ofdata: Bioregions, Department oftheEnvironment (2012) Figure 1.SouthernGulflandscapes upland areas are vegetated rainforests, withdry eucalypt woodlandsandlowAcacia woodlands. the EinasleighUplandsandWhite Mountains at thenorth-western corner oftheDesertUplands.These In theeast oftheregion, theupperreaches oftheFlindersRiverdrain theUndara-Toomba basalts of environments. or supportsalinegrasslands andsaltmarshcommunities. Mangroves linethecoast andestuarine permanent wetlands (Figure 2).Thecoastal vegetation includesextensive mudflats, whichcan bebare andMelaleuca woodland.Floodplainscontain(Eucalyptus andCorymbia) chainsofseasonal and reachthey thecoast. Inland,theplainsare vegetated byextensive grasslands andlowopeneucalypt Southern Gulfriversystems drain onto theseplains,withtheirchannelsincreasingly anastomosing as the GulfPlainsbioregion andasmallsection oftheGulfCoastal bioregion intheNorthernTerritory. All Australia (2004) Information Technology andInnovation (2013,2015a,b) 6 1 . Low-lying plainsdominate thenorth,andare comprised of 3,4,5, Springs,Rod Fensham (pers.comm. 20Nov2013);Streams, Geoscience 2; Regional Ecosystems, QueenslandDepartment ofScience, Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM In the region’s south-east are the rolling plains of the Mitchell Grass Downs bioregion. This grassland bioregion also intrudes along the southwestern border the Southern Gulf region.

The Northwest Highlands, comprising the Mount Isa Inlier and the Gulf Fall and Uplands bioregions, are the most rugged and spectacular sections of the Southern Gulf region. Most major rivers rise in these bioregions, which contain the Selwyn Ranges, east of Mount Isa, and Lawn Hill Gorge. The dominant vegetation is low woodland of Snappy Gum (Eucalyptus leucophloia) and other small eucalypts with an understorey of spinifex. Steep gorges provide some of the only permanent water in the region.

The vegetation of the Southern Gulf is largely intact, with less than 5% of any catchment being cleared7. Moderate rates of vegetation clearance continue in the region. Clearance rates averaged 1.5 km2 per year between 2005 and 2012, roughly doubling between 2012 and 20147. Most clearance has been for pasture development8. The most endangered ecosystems are the springs associated with the Great Artesian Basin, many of which have become severely degraded (Figure 3). Most other threatened regional ecosystems are listed because of their limited extent or degradation, rather than clearance.

Figure 2. Wetlands ecosystems in the Southern Gulf region Source of data: Wetlands (Regional Ecosystems), Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation (2013, 2015a,b)3,4,5, Springs, Rod Fensham (pers. comm. 20 Nov 2013)

Climate Change in the 2 Southern Gulf region trend intheeastern hasreversed sections oftheregion overthelast three years ofdrought and livestock. Improvements inground cover indicate grazing pressure hasdecreased overthelast 30years, butthis (Calotropis procera) haveinvaded large areas ofriparian corridor. Wetland ecosystems havealsobeendegraded bypigs (Vachellia nilotica), RubberVine(Cryptostegia grandiflora), Bellyache Bush( Jatropha gossypiifolia) andCalotrope of Carpentaria. management Conservation ofisahighpriority oftheregion’s Indigenous communities declaration ofanIndigenous Protected Area Islandsandsections oftheadjoiningmainlandandGulf overtheWellesley The region’s conservation estate hasmore thandoubledinrecent years withtheadditionoffour Nature Refuges and Grazing isthedominantlanduse,althoughthere are alsolarge areas ofAboriginallandandprotected areas (Figure 4). Land use 2015a,b) of Science, Information Technology andInnovation (2013, Source ofdata: Regional Ecosystems, QueenslandDepartment the SouthernGulfregion Figure 3.Threatened vegetation communities of Buffel Grasspoor fire management (Cenchruspennisetiformis andCloncurry ) invasion of theregion. Degradation ofextensive grasslands andwoodlandshasbeenattributed to hightotal grazing pressure, Land degradation isanissue,withbiodiversitycondition beingrated asat least partially degraded across themajority 3,4,5; Springs,Rod Fensham (pers.comm. 20Nov2013). Source: Geoscience Australia (2004) Figure 4.Land tenure oftheSouthernGulfregion Environment (2014) 18 , QueenslandGovernment(2015) 9 . Weeds,notably PricklyAcacia 10 . 17 , Department ofthe Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 11,12,13,14,15,16 19 .

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Community and economy

Table 1. Population of the Southern Gulf region Source of data: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2015)20

Local Government Area Total population Indigenous (Number of people) population (%) Mount Isa City 22,779 51.1 Cloncurry Shire 3,413 21.8 Carpentaria Shire 2,225 36.7 Flinders Shire 1,828 6.3 Doomadgee Aboriginal Shire 1,382 91.9 McKinlay Shire 1,085 3.8 Richmond Shire 845 5.8 Burke Shire 556 27.4 Mornington Shire 1,214 88.2

Figure 5. Population density in the Southern Gulf Source of data: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2015)20

Mining, cattle grazing, fishing and tourism are the region’s most important industries. The mining industry is the largest employer in the region, providing around one-quarter of jobs, followed by agriculture at about 9%21. The community has suffered from major changes in fortune in the mining and pastoral industries in recent years, as well as from droughts, floods and cyclones22. Declining cattle prices in real terms, temporary closure of the live export industry in 2011, and three years of drought have put many beef producers under financial stress22. Some producers may need to leave the industry because of burgeoning debt. However, increased international demand has increased market prices, and should improve the fortunes of the industry over the next few years. Mining, also important to the regional economy, has also suffered a downturn in recent years.

Climate Change in the 4 Southern Gulf region employment ofIndigenous peopleisonethird that ofnon-Indigenous people was approximately 23%,roughly 10timesthat for non-Indigenous people.Private sector Indigenous disadvantage intheregion ishigh.TheIndigenous unemploymentrate in2011 Source ofdata: Pearse andDale (2015) Figure 6.Resilience rating oftheSouthernGulfcommunity in2015 strong andcommunity linkswithindustry networks. business management ideas; principles;preparedness new and to experimentandtry to make themresilient to majorstresses andupheaval: strategic planningskills;sound Only asmallproportion ofpastoralists across northernAustralia possesscharacteristics indicators (Figure 6) At acommunity theSouthernGulfhasonlymoderate level, resilience across four key butresiliencesubset ofthisassessment, ofother natural resource managers isunknown. drought relief andinsurance arrangements. to improvedevelopment NRMcapacity; facilitating pathways andrestructuring outofdebt; include sustainable andequitable landuseplanningandwater allocation; infrastructure capacity across for most regional sectors. delivery Options for improving regional resilience the region remains marginalised bycentralised planning, andsuffers policy from weak rates inthemost populousareas. Governance inlocal government isrelatively robust, but vitality, butisoffset byinadequate andhousingavailability health services andhighcrime of professional staff. General lifestyle satisfaction contributes to moderate community students leave thearea to access education andtraining, andasaresult ofhighturnover together intimesofhardship. However, opportunitiesfor knowledge-building are lost when providedhistory long-term experience ofboom-and-bust andthecommunity cycles, bands Traditional Ownershavewiththeirlandandtherelative stability ofthepastoral sector. This The region’s knowledge base, aspirations andcapacity benefitfrom thelongassociation market access, particularly inthewet season. agriculture. Economic isimpededbyinadequate development infrastructure, whichrestricts demand for agricultural produce, whichisdrivingcattle prices andexpansion ofirrigated which exposesitto down-turns inglobal economic growth, butbenefits from theincreased 24 . Economic vitality suffers from dependence onthe resource sector, 24 19 SouthernGulfNRMproducers were a Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 23 .

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM CLIMATE

Southern Gulf climate

The climate of the Southern Gulf region ranges from semi-arid environment in the south to semi-humid in the north (Figure 7). Most rain falls between November and March. The region is hot and humid25, with mean maximum temperatures at Mount Isa approaching 40°C in summer and mean minimum temperature exceeding 10°C in winter. Summer maximums frequently exceed 40°C26. Temperatures are most extreme in the south (9-27°C in winter and 24-39.5°C in summer) and less extreme in coastal areas (13-28°C in winter and 25-35°C in summer). Wet season humidity can be 10% higher at Burketown than at Julia Creek.

Rainfall is highly variable (Figure 8). In about one-third of years, rainfall falls short of the average by more than 100 mm, and exceeds the average by at least 100 mm in another third. In particularly dry years, rainfall can be less than 200 mm. Most rain comes from thunderstorms, which are strongly influenced by the intensity of the wet season and monsoon26, or from tropical cyclones. The Southern Oscillation Index has a high influence on rainfall, and droughts are often associated with El Niño years, and extended periods of high rainfall with La Niña years.

Figure 7. Southern Gulf region (a) and climatic statistics (b) Source of data: Rainfall and temperature, Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2016)27; catchments Geoscience Australia (2004)28; Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004)6

Climate Change in the 6 Southern Gulf region Source ofdata: Australian Bureau ofMeteorology (2016) the influence ofElNino/La Ninacycles Figure 8.Rainfall statistics for JuliaCreek, highlightingextended periodsoflow orhighrainfall and Source ofimage: Australian Bureau ofMeteorology (2016) Figure 9.Tracks ofcyclones thataffected theSouthern Gulf region over a 100 year period 27 29 Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Figure 10. Flood records for the Leichhardt, Nicholson and Flinders Rivers Source of images: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2015) 31,32,33 Reproduced with the permission of the Bureau of Meteorology

Figure 11. Impact of temperature and humidity on working conditions Source of data: Hanna et al. (2011)35 and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2010)36 NB: Recommended limits to strenuous work by acclimated workers effectively precludes NRM in the red zone35

Climate Change in the 8 Southern Gulf region square kilometres Flinders Rivercatchment in2009covered 9,000 Richmond inmore years Flooding ofthe thannot. one year inthree. TheFlindersRiverfloodsat oneyear River flood levels infiveandtheGregory The Leichhardt Riverhasexceeded moderate major rivers(Figure 10).Since records began, Floods are common inthelowerreaches ofmost Kathy. the NorthernTerritory byCategory 5Cyclone stranded 7kminlanduptheMacArthurRiverin houses intheirpaths. In1984,sea turtleswere (1948) andBurketown (1976)destroyed most Mornington Island(1936,1976),Bentick and floodedmost ofthetown. Cyclones that hit 1887, whichcaused sea to riseby5metres level have includedonethat hitBurketown on5Mar devastating impacts onthe SouthernGulfregion classed asCategory 5.Cyclones that havehad categorysevere (Category 1);lessthan5% were in theGulfofCarpentaria havebeeninthe least eightyears. Nearly halfthecyclones once inevery years. Most properties wouldexperience acyclone likely duringLaNiñayears are inElNiño asthey and April(Figure 9).Cyclone are almost twice as year, most usuallyoccurring between November The GulfofCarpentaria averages a twocyclones 30 . natural resource management variability create achallengingenvironment for Hot conditions combined withhighrainfall are noalternative grazing options years; droughts can degrade pastures whenthere Flooding restricts access, inaverage even rainfall acclimatised workers. for non-acclimatised workers and7-8monthsfor conditions intheregion to 5-7monthsperyear effectively limittheperiodofsafe working for seasonedeven workers. Theseconditions working conditions become increasingly unsafe, approaches andtemperature andhumidityrise, thewetat season about36°C(Figure 11).As 27, workingconditions start to become unsafe 25-30% that are typical intheregion duringwinter years coastal erosion intheregion somewhere inmost cause significant winddamage, floodingand to local conditions. humidity andwhether thepersonisacclimatised for outdoor workdependontemperature and in practice improvement focus onnatural resource management orinvest stress. Affected landholdershavelittle capacity to inflictsevents financialhardship andemotional 29 . Thedamage caused byextreme weather 34,35 Underrelative humiditiesof 37 . Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 26 . Safe conditions 22 . Cyclones

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM How the climate has changed

Australia’ climate has changed since records began (Figure 12). Average temperatures in the Southern Gulf region have increased by more than 1.5°C since 1910. At Camooweal, the number of days hotter than 40°C have doubled from about 20 per year to about 40 per year over the same period (Figure 13a). High variability makes any trend in rainfall difficult to discern. However, despite recent droughts, Southern Gulf’s wet season rainfall in the last 20 years was very much above the long-term average (Figure 13b). Frequency of cyclones appears to have decreased since the mid-1980s, but the number of severe cyclones has not changed (Figure 14). Sea level in Australia has risen an average of 1.4 mm per year between 1966 and 200938.

Figure 12. a) Changes in temperate across Australia since 1910; and b) comparison of wet season rainfall between 1995 and 2014 with the long- term average SOURCE: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2014)39 Reproduced with the permission of the Bureau of Meteorology

Climate Change in the 10 Southern Gulf region SOURCE: Australian Bureau ofMeteorology (2016) Figure 13.Changes inthenumberofhotdaysatCamooweal since 1910 Reproduced with thepermissionofBureau ofMeteorology Source ofdata: Australian Bureau ofMeteorology (2011) Figure 14.Numberofsevere andnon-severe cyclones affecting Australia between 1970 and 2011 27 40

Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Future climate change and impacts

The Southern Gulf’s climate is predicted to keep changing (Figure 15)38. By 2030, temperatures are expected to rise by between 1 and 2°C (Figure 16), with greatest increases in the south-west of the region. The number of intensely hot days to double over current values38, which could mean that temperatures exceed 40°C at Camooweal about 80 days a year (see Figure 13).

There is no clear indication about changes in rainfall or whether droughts will become more or less frequent, but they may become more intense. However, there is expectation of increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events, and possibly flash-flooding as a result, and modelling of changes in faunal distributions are based on rainfall increasing by up to 15 mm/ year by 2045 in the south of the region, and by up to 100 mm a year at the coast41. Sea level rise will continue by an extra 6-17 cm by 203038. Effects of sea level rise will be exacerbated storm surges during cyclones.

Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide also have significant ramifications through fertilisation of plant growth42,43,44,45 and ocean acidification46,47.

Climate change not only affects the environment, but will have flow-on effects to cultural heritage, social wellbeing and production. These are impacts are explored in the following sections. Figure 15. Key climate change messages for the Southern Gulf region Source: Moise et al. (2015)38

Figure 16. Expected temperature increases to 2045 showing estimates under (a) a moderate projection (RCP4.5), and (b) an extreme projection (RCP8.5) Source: Gobius (2015)41

Climate Change in the 12 Southern Gulf region CLIMATE CHANGEANDBIODIVERSITY communities inQueensland the most extensive intact native vegetation The SouthernGulfregion contains some of Ecosystems Biodiversity values 2013), Otherwetlands, QueenslandDepartment ofScience, Information Technology andInnovation (2013,2015a,b) Source: Nationally Important Wetlands, Australian Department oftheEnvironment (2010) Figure 17.Wetlands oftheSouthernGulfregion (NCA 1992) under Queensland’s Nature Act Conservation modified enoughto beclassifiedasEndangered feral pigsandlivestock andare considered degraded bywater extraction, excavation, (Regional Ecosystem 2.3.39)that havebeen reduced extent. Onlyspring-fed wetlands communitiesFew are classifiedbecause of the region hasbeencleared orhighlyaltered. weed invasion anduncontrolled fire regimes. of thevegetation isdegraded from overgrazing, km in extent (each covering anarea oflessthan30 has 21communities that are highlyrestricted Great Artesian Basin(Figure 3). Theregion also communities ofspeciesdependentonthe springs alsosupportnationally-Endangered 2 ). Despite the low level ofclearance,). Despite thelowlevel much 56 . Twenty-nine ofthe33known 7 . Less than5%of are therefore ahighpriorityfor climate managed intheSouthernGulfregion. They these speciescould are dependonhowthey (Table 3,Figure 18).Thelong-term fate of proportion oftheir population intheregion important for speciesthat havealarge threatened species,andisparticularly The SouthernGulfregion contains several Threatened species three most important areas for shorebirds in northernAustralia andoneofAustralia’s largest continuous marineintertidal flat system (Table 2).TheSouthernGulfAggregation isthe are classifiedasNationally Important Wetlands in theupperFlinderscatchment and theEndangered Great Artesian Basinsprings shorebirds to tinyswamps inthearidsouth-west range from extensive mudflats that support value aquatic ecosystems (Figure 17).These Southern Gulfregion isits high-conservation One ofthemost distinguishing features ofthe Freshwater wetlands 63 , Springs,Rod Fensham (pers.comm. 20Nov Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 53 . Large areas 58-60 54 .

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Table 2. Nationally important wetlands in the Southern Gulf region Source: Environment Australia (2001)54 Name Area Description Characteristic flora Notable fauna (km2) Bluebush Swamp 8.8 Shrubby wetland dominated Waterlilies, aquatic grasses Waterfowl by Acacia stenophylla Gregory River 266 Largest perennial river in arid Waterlilies, fringing Estuarine and and semiarid Queensland eucalypts, paperbark, freshwater crocodiles swamp forest, figs Lake Julius 19 Artificial deep-water lake Waterweeds, aquatic Pelican, heron, egret, grebe, with fringing forest grasses, fringing brolga, tern, freshwater paperbark, pandanus crocodile, freshwater fish Lake Moondarra 18 Large, artificial, Waterfowl, grebe, pelican, permanent lake heron, egret, waders Lawn Hill Gorge 11 Permanent deep water Waterlilies, waterweeds, Frogs, freshwater within a spectacular waterferns, rushes, turtles, freshwater limestone and sandstone sedges, fringing eucalypts, crocodile, waterbirds gorge with perennial springs pandanus, Leichhardt pine

Lignum Swamp 2.8 Large semi-permanent Lignum, nardoo Waterfowl vegetated swamp Marless Lagoon 1670 Extensive, isolated Waterlilies, waterweeds, Waterfowl (ducks, herons, Aggregation seasonally rich lakes and aquatic grasses and pelican, ibis, stilt) vegetated swamps sedges, paperbarks and fringing eucalypts Musselbrook 451 Acacia stenophylla, Waterlilies Waterfowl Creek Aggregation Eucalyptus microtheca and E. tectifica vegetated swamp Nicholson Delta 636 Closed depressions in Waterlilies, sedges, wild Herons, egrets and Aggregation impeded drainage lines, rice, other aquatic grasses other waterfowl floodouts, backplains and riverine channels merging with an extensive estuarine system of saline clay pans and tidal channels Southern Gulf 5,455 Largest continuous estuarine Seagrass, mangroves, Shorebirds, dugong, Aggregation, wetland aggregation of its samphire, freshwater grasses marine turtles including type in northern Australia

Buffalo Lake 19 Large shallow lake Wild rice, other aquatic Swan, duck, terns, Aggregation grasses, salt-tolerant ibis, waders herbs, fringing eucalypts Stranded 0.68 Estuarine lake with Notable absence of flora Waterfowl Fish Lake occasional saline influence

Thorntonia 2,986 Perennial streams and Waterlilies, waterweeds, Waterfowl Aggregation springs associated with waterferns, rushes, dissected limestone and sedges, fringing eucalypts, dolomite formations pandanus, figs Wentworth 823 Riverine systems, some Waterlilies, Sesbania, aquatic Waterfowl, waders Aggregation with permanent pools grasses, fringing eucalypts, paperbarks, mangroves

Climate Change in the 14 Southern Gulf region Table 3.Priorityspeciesfor climate actionintheSouthernGulfregion Olive Ridley TurtleOlive Ridley Marine species Loggerhead Turtle Common name Leatherback Turtle Green Turtle Dwarf Sawfish Green Sawfish Snubfin Dolphin Australian Sawfish Freshwater Turtle Gulf Snapping Riparian species Red Goshawk (eastern) Star Finch Antechinus Carpentarian Dunnart Julia Creek Mammals Gouldian Finch Other birds Solanum Pink Gidgee Plants Grasswren Kalkadoon Night Parrot Lepidochelys olivacea Caretta caretta Species Dermochelys coriacea Chelonia mydas Pristis clavata Pristis zijsron Orcaella heinsohni Pristis prisits Elseya lavarackorum Erythrotriorchis radiatus ruficauda Neochmia ruficauda mimulus Pseudantechinus Sminthopsis douglasi Erythrura gouldiae Solanum carduiforme Acacia crombiei Amytornis ballarae Pezoporus occidentalis Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered V V V V V V National ulnerable ulnerable ulnerable ulnerable ulnerable ulnerable Status - - - - Queensland Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered Endangered V V V V V ulnerable ulnerable ulnerable ulnerable ulnerable Status - - - - - Importance of Southern Gulf Uncertain Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical High High High High provinces Key bioregional ------McArthur Armraynald Plains - Woondoola Plains Donors Plateau Armraynald Plains Central Downs Mount Isa Mount Isa Undara-Toomba Basalt Claraville Plain Northern Downs Mount Isa Mount Isa McArthur Mount Isa Armraynald Plain McArthur Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Figure 18. Priority marine species for climate change action Source of data: Species, Atlas of Living Australia (2016)56; Protected Areas, Australian Department of the Environment (2014)18; Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004)6

Figure 19. Priority riparian species for climate change action Source of data: Species, Atlas of Living Australia (2016)56; Bioregional Provinces, Department of the Environment (2012)57; Protected Areas, Australian Department of the Environment (2014)18; Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004)6

Climate Change in the 16 Southern Gulf region species’ distributions shouldrespond is projected to change; and, therefore, how howthisenvelope occur; envelope inwhichthey where speciesoccur at theclimatic present; used approach innorthernAustralia –identifies Bioclimatic modelling–themost commonly likely climate change impacts onbiodiversity. There are several approaches to assessing change Predicting biodiversity responses to climate Climate change impacts the samesuite ofclimate change conditions is found inexperiments subjecting aspeciesto change impacts onspeciesdistributions than tend to2011), andthey predict greater climate ecological outcomes isunproven” (Dawsonet al. delineating suitable future habitats, andpredicting “their efficacy inassessingextinction risk, change responses onalandscape scale. However, large volumesofdata andpredicting climate Bioclimatic modelsare usefultools for processing just outside the region and Lorraine withintheregion, andCamooweal long-term rainfall isavailable from onlyBurketown the region (Camooweal andNormanton), and (Richmond andBurketown) andtwojust outside temperature stations intheSouthernGulfregion northern Australia. There are onlytwolong-term density ofclimate stations, whichislowin accurately. This,inturn,dependsonthe on its abilityto modelcurrent climatic surfaces predicting future distributions alsodepends The efficacy ofbioclimatic modelling for climate. Even with inclusionofshort-term the accuracy ofmodelling theregion’s current least 190km)between thesestations hamper 65 . Large distances (at 58,59,60,61,62,63 64 . . responses to climate change, expertassessment, An alternative approach to assessingbiodiversity models andexperimentation ecophysiologicalobservations, andpopulation such aspaleoecological records, direct combination withother sources ofinformation, Therefore, bioclimatic modelsshouldbeusedin intrinsic capacity to adapt asconditions change and modelsdonot yet incorporate species’ rarely perfectly match theirecological tolerances, reliable results because species’ distributions of Australia. Modelling can alsofail to produce are forthan they more-thoroughly sampledparts have aloweraccuracy for theSouthernGulfregion (Figure 23).Sobioclimatic modelsare likely to of theregion havenobiodiversityrecords at all low densityofbiodiversityrecords, andparts currently occur. TheSouthernGulfhasarelatively knowledge ofwhere speciesandcommunities Bioclimatic modellingalsorequires accurate located ingorges to predict thelocation ofrefugia, suchasthose to modelaccurately, modellinggenerally fails climate inareas withcomplex microrelief ishard the lowest inAustralia. Moreover, because the climate modellingintheSouthern Gulfamongst >40 mm) error 2to >3hPa; andmonthlyrainfall error 20to pressure error ca 0.6hPa; dailyvapour pressure evaporation error 1.6to 2.0mm; dailyatmospheric minimum temperature error 1.4to 1.9°C;dailypan maximum temperature error 0.6to >1.8°C;daily with onlyamoderate to lowaccuracy (daily predict theSouthernGulf’s climate variables (in aprocess called patching), climate models records from additionalstations intheregion 66 . Thismakes theaccuracy ofcurrent 67 . Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 67,68,69 . 68 .

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Figure 20. Priority mammals for climate change action Source of data: Species, Atlas of Living Australia (2016)56; Bioregional Provinces, Department of the Environment (2012)57; Protected Areas, Australian Department of the Environment (2014)18; Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004)6

Figure 21. Priority birds for climate change action Source of data: Species, Atlas of Living Australia (2016)56; Bioregional Provinces, Department of the Environment (2012)57; Protected Areas, Australian Department of the Environment (2014)18; Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004)6

Climate Change in the 18 Southern Gulf region Protection (2016) Queensland Department ofEnvironment andHeritage Source ofdata: Species, Atlas ofLivingAustralia (2016) Figure 22.Priorityplantsfor climate changeaction by Laurance et al.(2011) being usedinnorthernAustralia includepublications to past changes inclimate. Examples ofthisapproach an understanding ofbiological function andresponses species andsystems, where thesecurrently occur and places greater emphasisondetailed knowledge of uses spatial information where thisisreliable, but Department oftheEnvironment (2014) vulnerable to climate change Australian ecosystems that are considered most The SouthernGulfregion contains three oftheten Ecosystems impacts. management approaches for avertingclimate change biodiversity intheSouthernGulfregion, andthebest to identifythelikely impacts ofclimate change on assessments andbioclimatic modellingare reviewed and mangroves, near-coastal wetlands andtropical 72 . Inthefollowing section, both expert 48 , Closeet al.(2015) 48 18 , namelysaltmarsh ; Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004) 56 , Bioregional provinces, Department oftheEnvironment (2012) 71 and 6 will impair uptake ofthecalcium neededto buildcoral water in the Gulf of Carpentaria will acidify, which, in turn, also result inan increase oceanic CO change. Increased atmospheric CO by climate change andtheunderlyingcause ofclimate Coastal andmarineenvironments willbeaffected both Coastal andmarine environments impacts are furtherexamined insubsequentpages. associated withincreased disturbance (Table 4).These heat stress andfire intensity, andweedinvasion and tropical savannas willbevulnerable to increasing wetlands risksalinisation withsaltwater intrusion; damage associated withintense near-coastal cyclones; particularly vulnerable to risesinsea-level andstorm Gulf NRMregion Southern GulfofCarpentaria, butoutside theSouthern highly vulnerable to climate change, are present inthe not fall into oneofthesecategories. Coral reefs, also littlesavannas oftheregion (Figure 24).Indeed,very does 73 . Saltmarshandmangroves willbe 57 ; Protected Areas, Australian Climate Change inthe 2 Southern Gulfregion concentrations will 2 . As a result, sea aresult, . As

19

SOUTHERN GULF NRM Figure 23. Density of biodiversity records across Australia Source: Adapted from ALA (2016)70

Figure 24. Climate change-sensitive ecosystems in the Southern Gulf region Source of data: Wetlands (Regional Ecosystems), Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation (2013, 2015a,b)3,4,5, Springs, Rod Fensham (pers. comm. 20 Nov 2013)

Climate Change in the 20 Southern Gulf region heavy rain andintense events tropical storms degraded bysea-level rise,temperature increase, damage thereefs. Sea grass beds are likely to be an increase intensity incyclonic are alsolikely to be affected crustaceans (includingprawns) are not expected skeletons andshell-forming molluscs,although, success onexposedbeaches marine turtlepopulations, aswellreduce nesting expected to increase theproportion offemales in marine animals.Increased temperatures are Climate change of willalsoaffect thebiology dugong andproductivity ofmarinefisheries These changes willaffect thehabitat ofturtlesand in flowregime that can change wetland and However, allwetlands are vulnerable to changes of sea riseandstorm-surge level damage be particularly vulnerable to thecombination lying coastal plainoftheGulfCarpentaria will Near-coastal freshwater wetlands onthelow- Freshwater wetlands nesting beaches increased storm-surges are alsolikely to destroy mangroves to establish furtherupstream fringe, whileincreasing marineinfluence willallow is expected to erode theshoreward mangrove of low-lyingcoastal plainsandislands also likely to cause shoreline retreat and flooding Sea-level riseandincreased storm surges are Carpentaria predict anincrease inmarineturtlestheGulfof sea-level rise temperature rise(causing coral and bleaching) and BentickIslandswillalsobeaffected by 46 79 . Reefs that fringe Mornington 77,78 . . Storm surges associated with 77 . Nevertheless somemodels . Nevertheless 77 . Sea-level riseand 78 . This 80 81 . . 46 . 79 . in habitat andfood resources further affect fauna, causing alossorincrease Changes inplant diversity andabundance will animals maydiefrom heat stress, which,when may decline any change inrainfall, freshwater availability moisture stress andevaporation. without So, even environment willdemand more water to offset and temperature. temperatures As rise,the Water availability istiedupwith rainfall, runoff land management practices that promote erosion. be exacerbated byferal animaldamage andpoor those associated andwill cyclones, withsevere pronounced underextreme rain suchas events, dioxide differently to expected increases in carbon operatewhich they best;andare likely to respond range oftemperature andrainfall conditions in Individual plantandanimalspecieshaveanarrow Terrestrial species damage wetlands. water cause erosion supplieswithsediment, and associated withintense downpoursmaypollute issue innear-coastal environments. Flash-flooding of water suppliesbysaltwater willalsobecome an earlier intheyear presently do. thanthey Tainting aquifers, seasonal streams, andwetlands maydry severely stressedseverely organisms ontheplanet change, and,by2070, to beamongthemost of suffer highlevels stress asa result ofclimate savannas are expected to beamongthe first to sediment deposition channel configuration through erosion and 75 . Plants andanimalsofthetropical 82 . Thisislikely to affect groundwater 76 . Suchimpacts willbemost Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 84 . Moreover, many 83 .

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Table 4. Climate-change-sensitive ecosystems of the Southern Gulf region Adapted from Laurence et al. (2011) 48, Woinarski et al. (2007)74, Steffenet al. (2009)75, Capon et al. (2013)76

Saltmarsh and mangroves

Values Threats

• High primary productivity Current • High marine biodiversity • Soil loss from paddocks • Stabilise coastal sediments • Protect the coast from storm Climate change surges and tsunamis • Sea-level rise drowning ecosystem and allowing inland expansion • Filter nutrients and pollution • Increasing storm intensity eroding shorelines and undermining habitat • Wildlife habitat • Ocean acidification affecting shell-forming animals • Fish and prawn nurseries • Changes in salinity affecting species composition • Changes in flow regime affecting species composition Near-coastal wetlands

Values Threats

• Rich species diversity Current • Filter nutrients and pollution • Water extraction • Regulate gas exchange • Damage from pigs and feral cattle • Stabilise sediments • Weed invasion • Mitigate floods • Soil loss from paddocks • Wildlife habitat • High cultural significance Climate change

• Saltwater intrusion from sea-level rise leading to plant and animal death and colonisation by mangroves and other salt-tolerant species • Changes in flow regime and resultant erosion and sedimentation, causing plant and animal death and habitat loss and fragmentation • Increased evaporation rates affecting water levels Tropical savannas

Values Threats

• Largely intact vegetation Current in good condition • Altered fire regimes resulting in species loss • High diversity plants and and elevated carbon emissions animals (most still present) • Transformer grasses that replace native species and alter fire regime • Several restricted-range species, • Loss of small mammals notably in sandstone ranges • Degradation from overgrazing • Carbon stores • Woody thickening • Pressure for agricultural development Climate change

• Increased heat stress impacts on plants and animals • Increased wildfire severity and spread eliminating fire- sensitive species and promoting weed spread • Increased storm activity promoting weed spread

Climate Change in the 22 Southern Gulf region an understanding ofspecies’ responses to climate have beenhighlighted aspotential refugia based on discussed above.Italsofails to capture theareas which (Figure 26a)fails to capture the highbiodiversityareas (Figure 21),themodelofcurrent biodiversityvalues of GouldianFinchandKalkadoon Grasswren habitat Dunnart habitat (Figure 20),andslightlylarger areas aggregations (seeFigure 17), asmallarea ofJuliaCreek Other thanthehighvalue SouthernGulfandWentworth to provide refuges underclimate change (Figure 26). biodiversity hotspots andareas that are most likely surfaces hasbeenusedinanattempt to identifycurrent distributions andoncurrent andprojected climate Modelling based oncurrent plantandanimal Gulf Plains. notably Donor’s Plateau, whichsits inthe middleofthe of theNorth-west Highlandsandother elevated areas, of steep hillsare alsoimportant hollow trees, deep litter andtheshadedsouthernsides and caves this “well-watered andrichlyresourced refugia” 88,89 loss ofsmallmammals combined withother stresses, isexpected accelerate the conditions through thelast ice age 4,000yearsenabled Indigenous ofarid peopleto survive enduring habitat climate through anincreasingly dry humid orfire-protected areas are most likely to provide inundate theregion biota willalsoberequired from thefloodsthat regular and not allspeciesare adapted for dispersal crustaceans andlandsnails its uniquesuite ofanimals,includingmammals,birds, Hill Gorge-Camooweal area isalready recognised asfor species can escape climatic severe conditions. TheLawn region isrelatively sothere flat, are refuges few where climate change bystaying putrather thanmigrating In thepast, most speciesinAustralia havesurvived . At alandscape scale, thisincludesgorges, gullies 60,69 . At amicrohabitat scale, rock piles,logs, 30,60 . Thisincreases theimportance 85 . 91,92,93 90 . More significantly, . TheSouthernGulf 95 . Refuge for terrestrial 87 . Cool, wet, . Cool,wet, 94

86 , shrubs andtrees over tropical grasses flooding, andcarbon-dioxide fertilisation (favouring temperatures, intensity ofwildfires, and cyclones to beinfluenced byclimate change. Increased The region’s vegetation communities are alsoexpected Terrestrial ecosystems modelling wouldbefallacious. biodiversity values, basing conservation effort onthis Given themodel’s poorrepresentation ofcurrent on highconservation value speciesandecosystems. the useofallspeciesinmodels,rather thanafocus Predicting biodiversityresponses to climate change); and distributions andtheirecological tolerances (see stations; theimperfect correlation between species records insomeareas; thelowdensityofclimate is likely to betheresult ofthescarcity ofbiodiversity model to predict current highvalue biodiversity values almost nobiodiversityvalue at all.Thefailure ofthe least biodiversityvalue, whilethat inthesouthcaptures section oftheMountIsabioregional province withthe the highpriorityarea inthesouthwest represents the change (seeFigure 25).Indeed,itcould beargued that shrublands (MV the moderate scenario, low-closedforest andtall closed woodlands (MV the vegetation, andtheextent ofother forests and eucalypt woodlands(MV (MV (Figure 27).Underboth scenarios, tussockgrassland indicates large shifts invegetation willoccur by2070 moderate andextreme climate change scenarios Modelling based oncurrent vegetation extent and caused byincreased wildfire damage. andcyclonic weeds are expected befavoured bydisturbance to havearecognisable savanna character communities. Thesecommunities are still expected reshuffling ofplants andanimals to create ecological new uncertain changes inrainfall, are expected to cause a G19), eucalypt openwoodlands(MV G10) willdeclinebyupto 70%.Under G15), other shrublands(MV G5) willcontinued to dominate Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 82,42 G11) and , alongwith 48 G17) and . However,

23

SOUTHERN GULF NRM Figure 25. Important areas for biodiversity resilience to climate change, highlighting Lawn Hill Gorge and provinces that are elevated above flood level Source of data: Floodplains, Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines (2013)96; Bioregional provinces, Department of the Environment (2012)57; Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004)6

Figure 26. Priority landscapes in the Southern Gulf region based on (a) current faunal distributions, and (b) 2085 climate modelling Source of image: Gobius (2015)41 based on Reside et al. (2013)59

Climate Change in the 24 Southern Gulf region vegetation communities in modellingthelikely impacts ofclimate change on markedly different reflects ofuncertainty thehighlevel will beentirely lost. Thefact that theseoutcomes are so casuarina forests andwoodlands(MV 7.7%, 0.1%and0.01%oftheregion, respectively; and thickets (MV extent; MV (MV MV from theregion. Undertheextreme scenario, MV (MV about 1.2%oftheregion, andeucalypt openforests rushlands (MV extent. Othergrasslands, herblands,sedgelands and (MV chenopod shrublands,samphire shrubsandforblands to facilitate natural migration or–inextreme cases – future habitat; andensuringlandscape connectivity range ofbiodiversity; identifyingareas ofcurrent and face ofclimate change ourpresent relies onconserving unlikely to beanissue.Biodiversityconservation inthe is important to identifyareas where theseproblems are flooding, salinisation, aridity ortemperature rise.Soit unsuitable habitat because ofvegetation clearance, benefits iftheareas inwhichitisinvested later become biodiversitywillfailWork to conserve to haveenduring Spatial prioritisation ofconservation effort climate change andimpacts). reliable indication ofanincrease in rainfall (seeFuture temperatures and evaporation, andthat there isno climate willbecome more aridasaresult ofincreased conditions. Yet climatologists conclude that theregion’s these results. Thesecommunities require reliably mesic scenario alsoraises theneedfor caution ininterpreting rainforests andeucalypt openforests are favoured inone G3 andtropical eucalypt woodlands/grasslands G12) willincrease to more than10timestheircurrent G3) andacacia open woodlands(MV G22) willincrease to more than10timestheircurrent G21, heath (MV G1), not currently willoccupy present, G21), not currently willoccupy present, 41 G18) andrainforest andvine . Moreover, thefact that G8) andMV G13) willbelost G17, G15 landscapes ensuring theenvironmental health oftheintervening and natural disturbance (suchasfire andflood); low riskofanthropogenic (suchasvegetation clearance) that currently havehighbiodiversityvalues andare at protected areas; focusing conservation effort inareas adiversityoflandscapes within through preserving usingalandscape-scalethis can approach beachieved change on speciesthat are particularly vulnerable to climate conservation values have beenprioritisedthrough andrestore actionsConservation to preserve priority Prioritisation ofconservation actions in face ofclimate change. values aswellfor ensuringpreservation ofbiodiversity above requirements for protecting current biodiversity one SIA(Figure 31).Therefore meet both the theseSIAs and Green Turtle nesting sites are alsofound inat least listed springs(Figure 30).Allofpriorityterrestrial species biodiversity status, aswellalarge numberofEPBC- or OfConcern remnant vegetation oranEndangered areas ofRegional Ecosystems withan Endangered Moondarra capture (Figure 29).TheSIAs representative or entirely contained withtheexception inSIAs, ofLake already intheProtected conserved Area estate are largely AllNationallyreport. Important Wetlands that are not capture thepriorityconservation values identifiedinthis pathways adequately between thehubs(Figure 28).SIAs which are interconnecting areas that provide migration are core areas ofhighbiodiversityvalue, orcorridors, Investment whichare Areas eitherhubs,which (SIAs), records andexpertopinionto identifyStrategic Heritage Protection usedacombination ofbiodiversity The QueenslandDepartment ofEnvironment and assist colonisation 100,101 60,67,97,99 . . It will also be necessary to focus. Itwillalsobenecessary effort 97,98 . For somebiodiversityvalues, Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion

25

SOUTHERN GULF NRM Figure 27. Current and predicted vegetation of the Southern Gulf region Source of image: Gobius (2015)41

Climate Change in the 26 Southern Gulf region Grasswren known species(especiallyPinkGidgee required populations to ofpoorly identifynew willbe other nativeconserve species.Surveys and restore environmental conditions and and associated planswillalsohelp maintain (Table 5).Actions identifiedintheseprocesses a numberofnational andstate processes by weeds,pest animals,uncontrolled wildfire, sawfish able to survive climate stressesable to survive Environments that are ingood condition are most to direct future investment. assess theeffectiveness of effortconservation and each property). Monitoring willberequired to areas to minimisegrazing pressure onparts of season spellingandmaintaining water remote grazing (includingmoderate grazing regimes, wet management ofpest animals,weeds,fire and species, communities andwetlands involves bycatch. Management ofpriorityterrestrial involves reducing marinedebrisandreducing For marineandfreshwater species,thismostly sustainable production andfishingpractices. restoring environmental condition andinstituting for priorityspecies andcommunities involves range species.However, most management appropriate for restricted- springsandafew risk ofdecline(especiallymarineturtles monitoring to assesstrends inthosemost at 104,105 55 ), andhabitat fencing maybe , GouldianFinch 106 , andKalkadoon 75 . Thoseburdened 102 103 ), and , fishing. the sustainability ofcommercial andrecreational on turtlenests, reduce marinedebrisandimprove will beenhanced byefforts to reduce predation marine conservation, climate change resilience agreements overhigh-conservation value area. For fire andto management; encourage conservation investing inbest practice grazing, weeds,pest and environment intheSouthernGulfisto continue to instil climate change resilience interrestrial sediment andpollution wetlands can continue theirrole offiltering are most likely to persist inawaterway inwhich with cats, foxes orwilddogs are sharingthat ifthey waterholelikely to survive drinking at thelast waterhole inthearea are least by feral animals are notthey beingtrampled, grazed anddug-over yearsparticularly ingood wet condition ordry if Wetlands are most likely to emerge from by floodwaters thanare areas ofbare ground with good grass cover are lesslikely to bescoured droughts For orcyclones. example, grazing lands likely to degrade furtherifaffected even byfloods, pollution orpoormanagement practices are most 108 . Birds andsmall mammals 110 . Therefore, thebest way Climate Change inthe 109 Southern Gulfregion . Fishandfrogs 107 .

27

SOUTHERN GULF NRM Figure 28. Strategic investment areas in the Southern Gulf region Source of data: Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection (2016)8

Figure 29. Strategic investment areas overlain by Nationally Important Wetlands Source of data: Nationally Important Wetlands, Australian Department of the Environment (2010)63, Strategic Investment Areas, Queensland Department of Environmental Heritage Protection (2016)72; Protected Areas, Australian Department of the Environment (2014)18; Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004)6

Climate Change in the 28 Southern Gulf region Source ofdata: Species, Atlas ofLivingAustralia (2016) Figure 31.Strategic investment areas overlain by records ofpriorityspecies Environmental Heritage Protection (2016) Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004) Protected Areas, Australian Department oftheEnvironment (2014) Source ofdata: Strategic Investment Areas, QueenslandDepartment ofEnvironmental Heritage Protection (2016) communities Figure 30.Strategic investment areas overlain by prioritythreatened ecological 6 72 ; Protected Areas, Australian Department oftheEnvironment (2014) 56 , Strategic Investment Areas, QueenslandDepartment of 18 ; Streams, Geoscience Australia (2004) Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 6 18 ; 72 ;

29

SOUTHERN GULF NRM Table 5. Management recommended for the protection and recovery of Southern Gulf priority species Source of information: 111 Australian Department of the Environment (2016)112, Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management (2010)113 Codes: AWD, Austrian Wetlands Database111; BoT, Back-on-Track113; LA, Listing Advice, CA, Conservation Advice; RP, Recovery plan

Common name Plans Community awareness Marine debris migration Barriers to Flow regime quality Water Bores fishing Commercial fishing Recreational hunting Unsustainable foxes Cats/ Pigs Wild dogs Weeds Grazing areas Water-remote Fire Collectors Conservation agreements Fence Survey/monitor Marine species Olive Ridley Turtle RP + + + + Loggerhead Turtle RP + + + Leatherback Turtle RP + Green Turtle RP + + + + + + Green Sawfish LA + + + + + + + Dwarf Sawfish CA + + + + + + + Australian Snubfin Dolphin BoT + + Riparian species Gulf Snapping Turtle CA + + + + + + Freshwater Sawfish CA + + + + + + Red Goshawk CA + + + + + Star Finch (eastern) CA + + Mammals Julia Creek Dunnart RP + + + + + + + Carpentarian Antechinus RP + + Other birds Gouldian Finch RP + + + + + Night Parrot CA + + + + Kalkadoon Grasswren BoT + + + + + + Plants Pink Gidgee CA + + + + Solanum CA + + Threatened communities Great Artesian Basin RP + + + + + Springs/RE 2.3.39 Nationally Important Wetlands Bluebush Swamp AWD + + + Gregory River AWD + Lake Julius AWD Lake Moondarra AWD + + + Lawn Hill Gorge AWD + Lignum Swamp AWD + Marless Lagoon Aggregation AWD + Musselbrook Creek Aggregation AWD + Nicholson Delta Aggregation AWD + + Southern Gulf Aggregation AWD + + + Thorntonia Aggregation AWD + Wentworth Aggregation AWD + +

Climate Change in the 30 Southern Gulf region AND COMMUNITY WELL-BEING CLIMATE CHANGEANDHUMANCAPACITY living intheSouthernGulfregion. keep workinginNRMorindeedto remain to influence people’s decisionwhether to (Figure 32).Suchchanges are alsolikely degree oftemperaturefor every rise be reduced byapproximately onemonth the periodofsafe working conditions will to workoutdoors. IntheSouthernGulf, general have adverseeffects onhumanhealth in Future climate change andimpacts) will in temperature of1-2°Cby 2030(see threats to biodiversity. Predicted increases production management andto address managers to institute best practice capacity ofSouthernGulfnatural resource Climate change willdirectly affect the Climate change impacts 114 andaffect theabilityofpeople change will beparticularly vulnerable to climate communities inthenorthofregion Economic disparity means that Indigenous faced bytheSouthernGulfcommunity. change willincrease thechallenges already asaresultin suchevents ofclimate regional economy. Sopredicted increases stress, community well-beingandthe flow-on effects to emotional andfinancial destruction ofproperty (Table 6),andhave anddamage and risk ofphysical injury andwildfires)cyclones alsoincrease the Natural disasters (droughts, floods, increasingly climate severe ability ofsomepastoralists to cope withan pastoral are likely industry to hamperthe 24 . Also, high levels ofdebt. Also, highlevels inthe Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 22,24,51 .

31

SOUTHERN GULF NRM Climate Change in the 32 Southern Gulf region Adapted from Lindell(2003) Table 6.Potential impactsofnatural disasters onpeopleandcommunities Source ofdata: Australian Bureau ofStatistics (2010,2016) Figure 32.Impactoftemperature riseonworking conditions Loss ofoperational capacity Loss ofassets (houses,businesses) Economic Conflict andgrievances Homelessness Family breakdown Societal Substance abuse Fatigue andphysical illness Anxiety, depression, grief Health Property damage anddeath Injury Physical Impacts 115 , Fraser et al.(2005) 116 , KentandAlston (2008) 27,36

117 Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion

33

SOUTHERN GULF NRM Adaptive capacity Climate change resilience

The increasing stress climate change is expected Responses to climate change range from resisting to place on the natural resources will necessitate change, through accommodating and adapting changes in management. An assessment of to change, and directing changes by managing pastoralists in northern Australia concluded the landscape to create new opportunities119. that only a small proportion of landholders are Capacity to response positively to climate change equipped to make the necessary adjustment has three elements: personal skills and attitudes; (Table 7). Young people with a transferable skill community relationships and networks; and set appear to have the best capacity to cope with access to resources and institutional support. and adapt to change. Producers with a strategic Extension and outreach can help build resilience approach to business management and a high in individual land holders to assist them deal with level of environmental awareness appear most climate shocks (Table 8). In particular, community likely to have good approaches to risk assessment resilience will be enhanced through Indigenous and planning and be interested adapting to economic development, including ranger change, while those who were strongly attached programs, and by assisting pastoralists to find a to their land were least likely to exhibit these pathway out of crippling levels of debt22,24. skills or attitudes. Those with a financial buffer seem best able to cope with climate shocks. Communities in which family, friends and Finally producers that are well-networked into neighbours know, trust and support one another, the community and industry are most likely to are best able to cope with climate variability be aware of the need to change and have most and other traumatic events120. However, where options for doing so. traditional responses are no longer adequate, receptiveness to fresh ideas is also important. Natural resource managers need to be appraised of climate change and mitigation options, and to develop skills and networks that will enable them to implement them.

Climate Change in the 34 Southern Gulf region Adapted from Marshallet al.(2014) Table 7.Climate changeresilience ofnorthernAustralian pastoralists (2.6%) 4 (13.4%) 3 High resilience (41.0%) 2 (43.1%) 1 Low resilience Group • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Characteristics Business turnovermore thanA$5m Average herd size: 2,000head Average workforce: 6.3employees Average property size: 218,428ha Large enterprise Strong networks Environmentally aware Strong strategic businessdirection 100% ofincome from thecattle industry Strong occupational identity Average age: 41years Manager Business turnoverA$1-5m Average herd size: 12,000 head Average workforce: 8.9employees Average property size: 364,639ha V Average age: 52years Strong networks Strong psychological andfinancialbuffer 100% ofincome from thecattle industry Strong occupational identity Owner/manager withchildren at home Business turnoverA$1-5m Average herd size: 7,000head Average workforce: 3.4employees Average property size: 111,634ha Medium-size enterprise Average age: 51years Lack strategic businessdirection Diverse income sources Owner withchildren at home Business turnoverA$1-5m Average herd size: 4,600head Average workforce: 1.9employees Average property size: 72,728ha Small enterprise Weak networks Diverse income sources Average age: 59years Weak occupational identity Owner withnochildren at home ery large enterprise ery 118 Interested inchange Likes to experimentwithoptions Manages riskwell Most likely to cope Least likely to cope uncertainty Limited capacity to manage riskand reorganising andlearning Low skillsfor planning,experimenting, Little interest inadapting to thefuture Response Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Table 8. Recommended action for building climate change in northern Australian pastoralists Source: Marshall et al. (2015)51

Action plan Perception of risk and managing for uncertainty Facilitate landholders to learn about managing risks and uncertainty Ability to plan, learn and reorganise Facilitate landholders to develop skills to plan for the future, and encourage them to discuss their plans with others – especially colleagues Ability to cope with change Encourage landholders to develop financial buffers for climate crises and to be aware of the various community support services available to them Level of interest in change Encourage landholders to develop an interest in climate change adaptation through exposing them to a range of different sources of information and regularly communicating about climate change adaptation ideas

Climate Change in the 36 Southern Gulf region dispossession andremoval ofIndigenous that hasresulted intheregion from degradation andlossofcultural heritage biodiversity). Theselosseswillcompound sedimentation (seeClimate change and saltwater ordegraded through erosion or rise, andfreshwater sites converted to sites are likely to belost to sea-level cultural heritage Climate change hasseriousimplications for CULTURAL HERITAGE CLIMATE CHANGEAND Indigenous people of totemic ormaterial significance to Climate change mayaffect species future Indigenous economic development. and freshwater environments ispivotal for arts, crafts andlivelihoods.Access to water provide food, medicinesandmaterials for as ceremony places. andstory also They special meaning for Indigenous people Waterways andwetlands, inparticular, hold climate change are culturally significant. natural environment that are vulnerable to 121,122 122 . Manyaspects ofthe . Near-coastal being). human capacity andcommunity well- human capacity (seeClimate change and (see Climate change andbiodiversity) climate change resilience ofbiodiversity assisted bymanagement to enhance the generate particular challenges, itwillbe change oncultural heritage condition will While addressing theimpacts ofclimate being). human capacity andcommunity well- outdoor work(seeClimate change and that make itunsafe to undertake physical will beaffected byrising temperature undertake cultural heritage management capacity ofIndigenous communities to altered fire regimes pastoralism, weedsandferal animals, people from theirland, commercial fishing, 123 Climate Change inthe . Inaddition,the Southern Gulfregion

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Climate Change in the 38 Southern Gulf region acidification Fish catches are likely to beaffected byocean markets for bushtucker production condition, safety ofworkingoutdoors andaccessing result ofclimate change impacts onenvironmental by Indigenous communities willface difficultiesas a livelihoods. Cultural andnatural resource management human health andwell-beingwillflowonto impacts on Impacts ofclimate change ontheenvironment and Climate change impacts CLIMATE CHANGEANDLIVELIHOODS recovery morerecovery difficult The increasing willmake frequency ofsuchevents damagecyclone to property andregional infrastructure. to operations willbeincurred asaresult offloodand in infrastructure. Significant costs andinterruption These pressures willnecessitate increased investment opportunistic spread ofweedsandcattle ticks(Table 9). increased disturbance from floodsandwildfires, and nutritional value ofthegrass), temperature increases, grass) asaresult ofCO on cattle, degradation ofresources (water, soiland Pastoral operations willbeaffected byheat stress and humancapacity andcommunity well-being). affect most industries inthe region (seeClimate change whenhumanscan safelylevels remain outdoors will increase inthenumberofdaysthat temperatures exceed damage to boats andharbourfacilities. Anexpected unable to operate inrough weather andcause significant mayincreasecyclones theperiodswhenfishingfleets are insurance rates continue to rise changes to flowregime andsedimentloads and sea grass bedscaused bystorm damage, and 46 , degradation ofestuarine environments 2 24 fertilisation (whichreduces the , aswellmore costly as 124 . Where thesefactors 122 . 77 . Severe . Severe and geopolitical instability perception ofincreased disease risk(e.g.from malaria); degraded lossofrecreational environment; fishstocks; include disruption bynatural disasters; perception ofa change impacts that could reduce visitation rates of increasingly torrid conditions. Otherpotential climate adversely affected byclimate change, not least because Tourism intheSouthernGulfregion willalsobe producers, theirfamilies andtheregional economy. willtakethey theirtoll onthehealth andwell-beingof combine to place businessesinfinancialjeopardy, the needto mitigate suchimpacts caused byincreased intensity, floodandcyclonic and expenditure oninfrastructure asaresult ofdamage Climate change willalsonecessitate increased today the landscape to avoidsaltwater damage thanitdoes coastal infrastructure willneedto be13cmhigher in programs for enterprises to engage incarbon emissionreduction opportunities intheSouthernGulf, withthecapacity an awareness ofclimate change hasalsoprovided (to avertheat stress incrops andlivestock) rates andprolonged droughts) andincrease demand may both reduce supply(through increased evaporation Water resources are vulnerable to climate change that on irrigation water andhighqualityagricultural land. emerging industries. Agricultural relies development Climate change willalsohaveimplications and for new 38 . 125 . 77 . Climate Change inthe 124,126 Southern Gulfregion . By 2030near- 82 . However,

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Table 9. Likely impacts of climate change on pastoral production and livelihoods Adapted from Crowley (2016)22

Variable Contributing factors Likely impact Environment Surface water Increased temperatures Reduced water availability Soil stability Increased rainfall intensity & cyclone intensity Increased soil erosion

Ground cover CO2 fertilisation Reduced ground cover Increased temperatures, heatwaves, wildfire extent & soil erosion Soil carbon Increased temperatures Reduced soil carbon Cattle ticks Increased temperatures Increased numbers of cattle ticks, with an expanded distribution Weed spread Increased temperatures & cyclonic disturbance Increase weed spread & management costs & water use Woody thickening Increased wildfire severity Uncertain impact on woody thickening

CO2 fertilisation

Forage production CO2 fertilisation Reduced forage production & forage quality Increased temperatures & evaporation Uncertain changes to wet season length & growing season Uncertain changes in woody thickening Reduced ground cover Grain for feed Increased demand for grain for biofuel Reduced availability & increased cost Increased competition for agricultural land Animal health Increased temperatures, evaporation & heatwaves Increased heat stress & water requirements Animal production Increased cattle tick abundance, wildfire severity & Reduced liveweight gain & reproductive rates animal heat stress Increased mortality rates Reduced water availability, forage Reduced animal production production & quality Property Increased animal water needs & heat stress Increased need for shade, cooling infrastructure Reduced water availability sprays, watering points & replacement Increased cyclonic damage & wildfire severity of damaged infrastructure Profitability Reduced animal production Reduced income, gross margins Increased infrastructure, grain & & hence profitability weed management costs Infrastructure Water storage Accelerated degradation Interruptions to supply & distribution Increased maintenance costs Road & rail Increased severity of flooding & cyclone damage to Reduced access to properties & ability to get transport road & rail network causing delays or re-routing cattle to market Increased road maintenance costs Increased cattle mortality risk Increased risk from road damage Increased transport & insurance costs Ports Increased storm damage, flooding & corrosion Increased frequency & duration of port closures causing shipping delays Increased cattle mortality risk Increased transport & insurance costs Power generation Increased power disruption Interruption to meatworks operation Accelerated degradation of network Communications Increased frequency & duration of network outages Disruption of communication services Buildings Building damage & accelerated deterioration Disruption of lives & business operations Social Emotional stress Reduced income, gross margins & profitability Increased personal stress & family breakdown Climate Change in the 40 Southern Gulf region well indifficultyears overstock, andare most likely to perform weather thanareperiods ofdry thosethat stocking rates are more profitable through Pastoral enterprises that usemoderate impact ofwater, grain orgrass shortages. of efficiency resource-use to minimisethe management practices that increase prepare for climate change byadopting Once established, enterprises can or irrigated cropping” the area ofsoilthat issuitable for dryland salinityandfloodingmayreducesecondary years, andthat “thecombined risksof irrigation dry maynot bepossibleinvery Flinders River. Thisstudy concluded that agriculturalto onthe new development assessment madeofriskwater shortages in theregion. Anexample ofthisisthe on theenvironment other enterprises landusemightsuffer orimpose new This means assessingrisksto that any enterprises that usetrickleirrigation the impacts ofdrought profitability ingood years, butreduce pastoral enterprises can not only increase by growing and storing theirownhay, about landuseandwater allocation starts withmakingappropriate decisions Building climate-resilience NRMenterprises Building climate-resilient NRMenterprises Source: IPCC (2014) Figure 33.Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions in2013 132 51,129 128 130 . . Inaddition, . Agricultural 127 . insurance arrangements isahighpriority of thedisaster fundingand recovery and facilitate recovery. Hence reform that both encourage resilience-building disasters. Institutions must beinplace prepare for and recover quicklyfrom Resilience alsomeans beingableto climate variability. management options that respond to programs willbeneededto demonstrate enterprise Extension andtheenvironment. minimisingriskstomanagement, both the adoption ofbest-practice natural resource building climate-resilience requires the crops inpooryears.to Inshort, dryland from irrigated crops infavourable seasons to changingconditions ability to adjust operations inresponse Climate-resilient enterprises alsohavethe irrigation water-shortages thanthoseusingfurrow are more profitable andlikely to survive and recover from them capacity to prepare for climate extremes poor wet season access willimprove both Overcoming transport difficultiesand sending themfor agistment adjusting stocking rates bysellingcattle or adjusting pastoral operations, suchas 131 . Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 22,24 51 . Thismaymean . 129 , orswitching 24 .

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Table 10. Potential for Southern Gulf natural resource managers to contribute to greenhouse gas reduction Source: Crowley (2016)125

Greenhouse gas emission reduction activity Potential Reduce methane emissions from livestock , High Fire management to abate GHG emissions Low Avoided deforestation not applicable Tree planting and regrowth not applicable Improving soil carbon watching brief

Figure 34. Priority areas for tree planting in Queensland based on carbon values Source: Department of Environment and Heritage Protection (2015)133

Climate Change in the 42 Southern Gulf region reduction activities that generate carbon by undertaking arange ofemission Landholders can participate inthismarket viability. provide income andimprove enterprise not onlymitigate climate change, butalso to reduce greenhouse gas emissionscan tonne inNovember2015.So, activities inApril2015and$12.25/ of $13.95/tonne the Australian Governmentfor anaverage auctions, carbon credits were purchased by on theopenmarket. Inthefirst twoERF Government at auction orto other buyers from theseactivities can besoldto the (Table 10).Carboncredits generated to reduce extent season oflate fires dry from agriculture andburningofsavannas clearance, reducing methane emissions tree planting,avoidingvegetation Emission Reduction Fund (ERF)includes funding undertheAustralian Government’s Natural resource management eligiblefor greenhouse emissionsorstore carbon. a market for management that reduces greenhouse gases (Figure 33),there is climate changeAs isdrivenbyincreasing Entering thecarbon economy Source: Crowley Figure 35.Eligiblefueltypefor Savanna Fire Managementprojects et al. (2016) 43 increase carbon stored inthesoil of practices can presently beguaranteed to accumulation andlossmean that nosuite However, thecomplex pathways ofcarbon a promising prospect at first glance. to improve soilcarbon appears to be Adoption ofmanagement practices watching briefinthisarea. Southern GulfNRMwillmaintain a their credits to theAustralian Government. projectsseven havecommitted to selling far yieldedanycarbon credits, although ERF-registered soilcarbon projects hasso how thisisto bedone.Noneofthe15 butthisdoesnotmanagement, stipulate sequestered byadjusting grazing land landholders to measure soilcarbon method hasbeen approved that enables region’s woodlands(Figure 34) because oflowbiomassproduction ofthe avoided deforestation are not applicable burning. Tree planting,regrowth and to reduce methane emissionsandsavanna Southern Gulfregion; herd management reduction that havepotential inthe credits. There are twoforms ofemission Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion 133 . 22 . AnERF

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Savanna burning to reduce methane 15,000 breeders showed and expected and nitrous oxide emissions from late annual income from emission reduction dry season fires is applicable in just over of $300,000 to $600,000 and an after-cost one-third of the Southern Gulf region profit of $27,000 to $70,00022,137. Projects (Figure 35). However, for fire management using this ERF method therefore have projects to be economically viable, it is also potential for increasing the profitability of necessary for the project area to contain adopting best-practice herd management. a significant area of eligible fuel types , for In general, it appears that management the current fire regime to have frequent, practices that improve herd performance, extensive and severe late dry season fires, will also decrease the carbon input and for the carbon price to be high enough required to produce each kilogram to cover costs of project management and of meat22,138. Examples of changes to administration. Even at a carbon price management that are expected to both of $40/tonne, few areas in the Southern reduce emissions and improve herd Gulf region would meet those criteria135. It performance include139,140 would therefore appear that there is limited • Fencing and additional water points scope for economically viable savanna • Rotational grazing fire management projects in the region at • Herd segregation / supplementation current prices. • Irrigation or forage cropping • Increased selection pressure, culling The most promising opportunity for and reduced breeder numbers improving livelihoods from the carbon economy in the Southern Gulf region is In April 2016, one herd management through reducing methane emissions project and one soil carbon project were from livestock22. In 2011, the Southern registered in the Southern Gulf region, Gulf region contained about 5% of the although neither had yet go to the stage of Australian cattle herd, with the Mitchell accruing carbon credits141. Several other grass country in the south-eastern part methods for reducing methane emissions of the region having some of the highest from pastoral enterprises are under concentrations of cattle in the country. development and also look promising. So this is an area in which reduction of livestock emissions should be a high Carbon-friendly technologies with NRM priority. However, massive destocking in benefits can provide alternative energy response to drought conditions may delay sources and reduce emissions. A good this option for some time136. example is installation of solar-powered pumps to allow water points to be There are currently two approved ERF established away from environmentally methods to reduce emissions from sensitive streams and wetlands. Because livestock (Table 11). Substituting nitrate adoption of such technologies help for urea licks on a property with 30,000 the Australian Government achieve its breeders is only expected to provide an Renewable Energy Target, they may also be annual income of $18,000, with an after- eligible for funding through the Australian cost profit of $4,000. The herd performance Government’s Small-scale Renewable method is far more promising. Modelled Energy Scheme161. case studies in the Kimberley and Northern Territory for properties with 10,000-

Climate Change in the 44 Southern Gulf region Adapted from (2016) Crowley Table 11.Strategies to reduce greenhouse gasemissions from livestock area is not currently apriorityfor other non-government organisations never secure andrequiresnever along-term commitment byinvestors Commonwealth andstate government landandseas ranger programs. fundingis However of Burketown. Funding hasbeenobtained for management ofboth areas through an Indigenous Protected Area, andanother isproposed for northeast Gangalidda country communities. Islandsandadjacent TheWellesley mainlandhavealready beendeclared Southern Gulf(Table 10).Theconservation economy isparticularly important for Indigenous improving theeconomic resilience ofindividuals,enterprises andtheeconomy ofthe In additionto emission reduction, theconservation economy offers opportunities for Conservation economy is active intheSouthernGulfregion through its partnership withWaanyi Garawa improve pasture quality Moderating stocking rate to Improve feed quality Replacing urea lickwithnitrate Improve feed conversion efficiency Strategy Herd management Improve herd management andgrowth rates Grain-based feed-lotting Genetic selection oflivestock adjustmentsOther dietary 22 145,152,156,160 158,159 156 140,145,147,154,155 143,144,145,146,147,148,149,150,151,152,153 142 Sources 162 . BushHeritage Australia Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion Unlikely ERF method Potential Unclear Unclear Current Current 47 , butthe 138,157

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SOUTHERN GULF NRM Table 12. Potential for other conservation economy activities to contribute to Southern Gulf livelihoods Source: Crowley (2016)125

Activity Potential Indigenous business and employment Indigenous Protected Areas Moderate Indigenous ranger programs Moderate Biodiversity conservation Threatened species and communities Low Managing biodiversity for climate change resilience Low Weed and pest animal management High Marine debris removal Low Biosecurity surveillance ? Water Maintaining riparian condition Moderate Improving GBR water quality not applicable Best practice management Water quality improvement Low Stewardship to improve grazing land condition ?

Landholders entering into conservation agreements with the Queensland Government by declaring a Nature Refuge over all or part of their property may also be eligible for financial assistance through NatureAssist45. There are currently four Nature Refuges in the region (Figure 4). The Queensland Government is currently refining its priorities under the Nature Refuges program. However, areas in the Southern Gulf region that are most likely to attract such funding must be in good condition and have appropriate management arrangements and contain one or more of the following features • Threatened species or their habitat • Endangered or Of Concern regional ecosystems • Habitats and ecosystems that are poorly represented in existing protected areas • Significant wetlands

Other land with high conservation values may also be eligible for more enduring funding under Queensland’s Environmental Offsets Framework46. In this case, the land must provide like-for-like environmental values to those that will be damaged in a development project, such as might arise through clearing vegetation for mining or agriculture. The land must also be in a Strategic Investment Offset Area (Figure 28). These areas have been selected for their high conservation value and the linkages they provide between such areas, and hence have a high likelihood of providing resilience in the face of climate change8.

Climate Change in the 46 Southern Gulf region CONCLUSIONS increasingly hot weather, butalsobythe from climate change, beingstressed by will suffer both directly andindirectly damage andpoorfire People management. overgrazing, weedinvasion, feral animal environment that isalready degraded by andfloods.Thesewillstresscyclones an evaporation, andincrease intensity of acidification, risingtemperatures and from risingsea-level, increased ocean Gulf region. Principal challenges willcome community andeconomy oftheSouthern to thenatural andcultural resources, Climate change posesseriouschallenges management. management. reduction activities andbiodiversity streamsadditional revenue from emission to buildregional resilience byproviding economy alsoprovides opportunities building. Theconservation andcarbon will alsobenefitfrom this resilience- adaptive capacity. Theregion’s economy of sustainable practices andbolstering NRM community byimproving adoption by addressing current threats, andofthe a needto buildresilience ofthelandscape on whichtheirlivelihoodsdepend.There is damage anddegradation ofthelandscapes Climate Change inthe Southern Gulfregion

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