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A Collarobative Scientific Research Sea-Level Rise Trends, Projections, & Adaptation Planning for Collier County NOAA Workshop February 27, 2018 Michael Savarese Florida Gulf Coast University Talk Outline 1. Causes of SLR. 2. Current trends & incipient effects of SLR in Southwest FL. 3. Future projections. 4. A path to adaptation for Collier County. Part I: Science of Sea-Level Rise Greenland: 7.2 m / 24 ft Regional Antarctica: 70 m / 230 ft Global Regional Global 52% of SLR 1972-2008 IPCC 2001 Part II: Trends & Incipient Effects Tide Gauge Station Naples 2.70 +/- 0.46 mm / yr Key West 2.40 +/- 0.15 mm / yr Jason / TOPEX Satellites Global Average Sea Levels Inferred From Tide-Gauge & Satellite Data 83 mm (3”) since 1993 200 mm (8”) since 1870 • SW FL follows the global average. • No significant regional effects. Church, J.A. and White, N.J. (2006) Coring Sediments / Sediment Stratigraphy 2 4 1 3 1: Supratidal / subaerial sands. 2: Intertidal mangrove peat. 3: Vermetiform-dominated shallow subtidal reef. 4: Oyster-dominated intertidal brackish reef. Sea-level Curve for Southwest Florida Last 5,000 Years Florida’s Coastal Best fit hand drawn curve Geomorphology Develops During This Time Savarese, 2014 Building the geomorphology: barrier islands & “Ten Thousand Islands” develop when SLR rates are low Horseshoe Keys, Estero Bay Ten Thousand Islands Geomorphology 10TI prograde to create bays Red Mangroves Invading Eleocharis Freshwater Marsh TenCase Thousand study: Mangrove Islands Expansion NWR Mangrove Area 1927: 5,403 ha 2005: 7,281 ha 35% Increase Up-slope migration In situ elevation adjustment Krauss et al. 2011. J. Coast. Conserv. 15, 629–638. Pocking in the Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge Andres & Savarese, 2016 Andres & Savarese, 2015 West: beheaded & reduced sheetflow East: pristine sheetflow opposing SLR EAST Total # Total Pond Average Ponds Area (m2) Pond Area (m2) 1953 2624 160,511 61.2 2009 3330 247,470 74.3 % 26.9 54.1 21.5 CHANGE WEST Total # Total Pond Average Ponds Area (m2) Pond Area (m2) 1953 2025 90,401 44.6 2009 3886 282,160 72.6 % 91.9 212.1 62.6 CHANGE Quantitative Assessment Hoye, 2008 Evidence of initiation, growth, and merger of Southwest Everglades ponds at different scales Effects upon barrier islands Saltern Formation Islands within RBNERR Barrier Island Instability, Erosion, and Migration Back-barrier Mangroves on Beach Keewaydin Island Erosional Dune Scarp After Debby Keewaydin Island Hurricane Irma Erosion, Southern Keewaydin Island Trends in Florida’s Beach Erosion Data from DEP’s Critically Eroded Beaches and FL Assessment of Coastal Trends reports Part III: Projections for the Future NOAA’s Climate & Weather Supercomputer SLR Projections for IPCC, 2013 21st Century RCP 4.5 Paris Accord RCP 8.5 Business as Usual NOAA, 2017 Sea-level Curve for Southwest Florida Last 5,000 Years Best fit hand drawn curve Savarese, 2014 Combining Sea-level Curves Incipient Geomorphic Change Geomorphic Loss Coastal Geomorphic Development SLR Exacerbates Effects of Storms It is during passage of storms that effects become catastrophic. Storm surge + wave height + SLR! Why landscapes don’t flood like bathtubs: attenuating effects of physiography. Green infrastructure beneficial. The Role of Mangroves in Reducing Coastal Inundation (Sheng and Zou, 2017, Hydrobiologia) Mangroves prevented massive flooding in Miami Dade County during Hurricane Andrew! Green infrastructure as a buffer for storm With Vegetation surge, wave, and vegetation removed inundation. Part IV: Path to Adaptation for SWFL NOAA-NCCOS Project “A Web-based Interactive Decision-support Tool for Adaptation of Coastal Urban and Natural Ecosystems (ACUNE) in SWFL. Drs. Peter Sheng (UF) & Michael Savarese (FGCU). A 3-year project funded at ~$1M. RESTORE Act, Deepwater Horizon settlement monies. Not your typical science award! Tools for decision makers. The proposal’s success: Robust science & strong collaboration with resource planners and elected officials. 3 phased approach: (1) use best available science to generate scenarios of environmental effects; (2) employ the best science to develop viable plans for adaptation; and (3) eventually engineer a plan in anticipation. ACCR: Alliance for Collier’s Coastal Resilience! Natural Resource Management Team Name Agency Title Email Address Kevin Godsea Ten Thousand Islands Team Leader / Refuge Manager [email protected] Mark Danaher National Wildlife Refuge Supervisory Biologist [email protected] Keith Laakkonen Reserve Manager [email protected] Brita Jessen Research Coordinator [email protected] Jeff Carter Rookery Bay National Stewardship Coordinator [email protected] Patrick Estuarine Research Fisheries Biologist [email protected] O’Donnell Reserve Jessica Coastal Training Program [email protected] McIntosh Coordinator Lisa Koehler South Florida Water Lead Administrator [email protected] Akin Owosina Management District Bureau Chief Hydrology & Hydraulics [email protected] Rhonda Watkins Senior Environmental Specialist [email protected] Danette Collier County Pollution Control Manager [email protected] Kinaszczuk Stephanie Natural Resource Manager [email protected] City of Naples Molloy Chadd Chustz City of Marco Island Environmental Specialist [email protected] Steve Interim Park Manager [email protected] Houseknecht Fakahatchee State Park Mike Owen Park Biologist [email protected] Terrance Park Manager [email protected] Torvund Collier-Seminole State s Justin Tiseth Pk Assistant Park Manager [email protected] Maulik Patel Park Biologist [email protected] Zach Lozano Delnor-Wiggins State Pk Park Manager [email protected] Bob Sobczak Big Cypress Natl Hydrologist [email protected] Preserve Sara Ayers- Director Southeast & Southwest [email protected] Rigsby FL Public Regions Archaeological Network Public Archaeology Coordinator SW Rachael Kangas [email protected] Region Margo National Park Service [email protected] Archaeologist Schwadron Marco Island Historical Austin Bell Curator of Collections [email protected] Society Kathy Worley Conservancy of SWFL Director Environmental Science [email protected] Urban Resilience & Planning Team Name Agency Title Email Address Linda Penniman Team Leader / Vice Mayor Naples [email protected] Bill Moss City Manager [email protected] Stephanie Molloy Natl Res Manager / Stormwater [email protected] Gregg Strakaluse City of Naples Streets & Stormwater Director [email protected] Bob Middleton Utility Director [email protected] Robin Singer Planning Director [email protected] Erica Martin Senior Planner [email protected] Charlette Roman City Council Member [email protected] Howard Reed City Council Member [email protected] City of Marco Island Gil Polanco Interim City Manager [email protected] Lee Niblock City Manager - Pending Penny Taylor County Commissioner / Board Chair [email protected] Donna Fiala County Commissioner [email protected] Leo Ochs County Manager [email protected] Nick Casalanguida Deputy County Manager [email protected] Jerry Kurtz Stormwater Management [email protected] Trinity Scott Transportation Planning Manager [email protected] Andy Miller Transportation Engineering [email protected] Howard Critchfield Building Review & Permitting [email protected] Collier County Caroline Cilek Floodplain Management [email protected] Chris Mason Floodplain Manager [email protected] David Weeks Growth Management Manager [email protected] Eric Fey Senior Proj. Manager, Public Utilities [email protected] Rick Zyvoloski Emergency Management [email protected] Amy Patterson Director Capital Project Planning [email protected] Ian Barnwell Capital Project Planning [email protected] Anne McLaughlin Director, Collier MPO [email protected] Gary McAlpin Manager Coastal Zone Management [email protected] Lisa Koehler SFWMD Lead Administrator [email protected] Nader Ardalan Ardalan Associates Urban Architect & Designer [email protected] Director Growth Mgmt & Planning [email protected] Conservancy of SFWL Nicole Johnson Brad Cornell Audubon Florida SWFL Policy Associate [email protected] Dynamic Modeling • A Robust Coastal Model ACMS (CH3D-SWAN) • JPM-Optimal Sampling to develop a Storm Ensemble Study Domain Products: • Inundation maps • Coastal vulnerability maps • Salinity distribution maps • Economic impact maps • 2030 2060, 2100 • For a variety of SLR magnitudes & storm conditions Simulation of Hurricane Irma Example Inundation Maps for Early and Late 21st Century RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 1ft SLR 3ft SLR Ensuring Success My observations / recommendations . Requires a grass roots effort: engage the community in education & discussion. Engage decision makers & local government. – Find common ground. – Involve them in all aspects of the process. Bring together natural & urban resource managers. Ensure process is complete: heurism, planning, implementation. Ten Thousand Islands Mangrove & Buttonwood Habitat 1940 2009 Barry, 2009; Barry et al., 2013 et al., Barry 2009; Barry,.
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