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Business in Russia 2014 BUSINESS IN RUSSIA 2014 Stockholm, 16th of September 2014 Mikael Johansson, Trade Commissioner Russia and Central Asia BUSINESS SWEDEN – GLOBAL PRESENCE WE MAKE IT EASIER FOR SWEDISH COMPANIES TO DO BUSINESS ABROAD AND WE MAKE SWEDEN MORE ATTRACTIVE TO DO BUSINESS WITH BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 2 KAZAKHSTAN IS THE LARGEST ECONOMY IN CENTRAL ASIA Astana KZT KAZAKHSTAN UZB KYR TUR TAJ Almaty • Area: 2 724 900 km² • Capital City: Astana • FDI: USD 18 billion (2012) • Inhabitants: 17.0 million (June, 2013) • Main Cities: Astana, Almaty • Total Export (2011): USD 88 billion • Inhabitants/km2: 6.1 (2011) • Currency: Kazakh Tenge (KZT) • Total Import (2011): USD 38 billion • Religion: Islam (70%), Orthodox • GDP: USD 183 billion (2011) • Main Exports: mineral oils & fuels, metals, Christianity (20%), Other (10%) • GDP Growth: 5.4% (2013) chemicals, food products • Constitution: Presidential Republic • GDP Per Capita (PPP): • Main Imports: machinery & equipment, chemicals, mineral oils & fuels, metals • President: Nursultan Nazarbayev USD 13,029 (2012) • Prime Minister: Serik Akhmetov • Gross average wage 2012: • Languages: Kazakh, Russian USD 844/month • Inflation 2012: 6% Source: SCB, Economist Intelligence Unit, UN Trade, Ministry of Statistics Republic of Kazakhstan BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 SEPTEMBER, 2014 3 KAZAKH RAILWAYS – COMPLETITION OF LIFE CYCLE SETS PACE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT Kazakh Railways is one of the largest state enterprises in the country with over 140 thousand employees Given that Kazakhstan is the 9th largest country in the world, its limited direct sea access and navigable waterways, the structure of production of raw materials, underdeveloped road infrastructure, uneven distribution of productive force make the railway infrastructure important In the period up to 2020 more than 54% of freight cars of the current Company’s fleet, 68% of main-line locomotives, 82% of switch engines and passenger cars will be written off due to the end of service life These challenges will partially met by: 3 BUSD annual investments in to railroad infrastructure by 2020 - 1,400 km of track will be added to the network In 2013 french railway specialists Systra has been awarded a contract to design and supervise the construction of Kazakhstan's high-speed rail link between the capital, Astana, and the city of Almaty. 1,050 km double track in length "Aktobe rail and beam plant" is being currently constructed. The total project cost is estimated at USD 367.6 mln. Including equipment In the period from 2004 to 2012 there was a significant renewal of rolling stock when KTZh acquired 31 thous. of freight cars of which only more than 21 thous. of them were purchased over the past two years Cooperation has been established with the world's largest corporations, such as «General Electric» (USA), «Alstom Trasport» (France), «Tulpar-Talgo» (KZ-Spain). As an example, Alstom plant plans to deliver 295 new passenger and freight locomotives to KTZh until the end of 2020 Investments in energy efficient solutions BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 4 RAILWAY DELEGATION TO ASTANA, 3-4TH DECEMBER Cooperation background with Temir Zholy In 2012 business Sweden has conducted a railway delegation to Kazakhstan EBRD Initiative 2014 Goal of the delegation The main goal of this delegation is to provide information on available projects in which Swedish companies could participate and arrange meeting with potential partners, through B2B, B2G and mingling/matchmaking events BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 5 PROGRAM 3rd of December Morning session: Introduction to the program and to the transport sector of Kazakhstan: Business Sweden, Embassy of Sweden in Astana, Asian Development Bank, Siemens, Talgo, General Electrics etc. Lunch Visit to the National company “Kazakhstan Temir Zholy” – Kazakh Railways Presentation of the Temir Zholy and projects Swedish railway companies’ presentations Round Table Discussion – Deregulation of the Swedish Railway and other relevant topics BTB Meetings Dinner buffet (Temir Zholy, Embassy of Sweden, Business Sweden, Siemens, Talgo, General Electrics, Asian Development Bank) 4th of December Meeting with the Ministry of Industry and New Technology / Alternatively B2B Meeting Meeting with the Ministry of Transport and Communications / Alternatively B2B Meetings Lunch B2B Meetings Dinner (Temir Zholy, Embassy of Sweden, Business Sweden, Siemens, Talgo, General Electrics) BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 6 AGENDA Key facts, current situation and trade sanctions Business Climate Survey – Russia 2014 Business Sweden in Russia Railway delegation to Kazachstan - 2014 BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 7 BUSINESS SWEDEN – GLOBAL PRESENCE WE MAKE IT EASIER FOR SWEDISH COMPANIES TO DO BUSINESS ABROAD AND WE MAKE SWEDEN MORE ATTRACTIVE TO DO BUSINESS WITH BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 8 RUSSIA – A LARGE NEIGHBOURING MARKET… #8 economy #2 oil and gas 143 M consumers in the world producer in the world 11 time zones largest country in the world only one hour away BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 9 …WITH MANY YEARS OF STRONG TRADE GROWTH… Chemical Others Automotive 14% Imports to Sweden from Russia, SEK billion related goods spareparts 10% 7% Exports from Sweden to Russia, SEK billion Trade Balance, SEK billion Light vehicles 26% 40 Machinery and ICT eq. 20 43% 22.7 28.9 27.6 23.7 23,6 16 17.9 14 20.8 0 -20 -24.8 -45,5 Wood and -33.1 -29.2 -31.5 -61.7 articles of -44.4 -64.8 Other metals Others -40 wood 2% 12% -50.8 1% -60 Iron and steel -80 1% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Crude oil Chemical 76% products 8% EXPORT TO RUSSIA HAS GROWN BY 500% SINCE YEAR 2000! THERE ARE 350 DAUGHTER COMPANIES IN RUSSIA SOURCE UN CUSTOMS STATISTICS BUSINESS SWEDEN 10 …THAT HAS RECENTLY SHOWED A “DARK SIDE” Experiencing economic difficulties Showing acts of protectionism Demonstrating signs of aggression BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 11 AND THERE ARE STRONG VOICES AGAINST RUSSIA ”Jag har gjort affärer i Ryssland. Jag skulle inte göra det i dag. Det är en ren affärsbedömning. Det är för riskabelt. Sannolikheten är mycket stor att du förlorar allt. Det är svårare att bedöma var Ryssland kommer vara politiskt och ekonomiskt och två till tre år.” Dagens Industri, 2014-09-06 BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 12 RELATIONS WITH EU AND US BEGAN DETERIORATING LATE 2013… WINTER 2013-2014 SPRING – SUMMER 2014 Yanukovych refuses to sign EU Unrest spreads to Eastern Ukraine association agreement Separatists take control of large Protests in Kiev areas Yanukovych leaves Ukraine Sanctions are imposed in three steps against Russia from the EU Annexation of Crimea and the US Demands for sanctions against Russia The Russian government responds with counter-sanctions against EU Russian Federation deploys large amount of troops along the The armed conflict prevails until Ukrainian border today BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 13 …RESULTING IN SANCTIONS AND COUNTER SANCTIONS EU AND US SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA RUSSIAN COUNTER-SANCTIONS 167 Russian individuals and legal entities on Russian sanction list on a limited number of sanction lists US citizens Investments and activities related to transport, From August 7, 2014, Russian one year ICT, energy and natural resources in Crimea import ban on fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, prohibited milk and dairy products from the USA, EU, Embargo of arms and dual use materials Norway, Canada and Australia Restriction of technologies in deep water, arctic or off-shore oil projects Financing of Russian state owned banks on SANCTIONS longer terms than 90 days AND COUNTER- SANCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SANCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER COUNTER-SANCTIONS Widening sanctions regarding tech towards the Restriction of overflights through Russian oil sector airspace Travel bans and asset freezes for more individuals Tightening access to capital markets for Russian oil and defense companies SOURCES: MANNHEIMER SWARTLING, INTERNAL ANALYSIS BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 14 …CAUSING NEGATIVE EFFECT ON RUSSIAN ECONOMY GDP FORECASTS ARE REVIEWED Lower liquidity in the system DOWNWARDS Volatility of Russian Rouble, especially since 1Q2014, will add to increasing inflation. Effects as in 1998 or 2009 are not expected, Sanctions and international isolation come on although financing will be less accessible and more costly, top of an already ongoing economic slow-down construction projects and other investments will be put on hold in Russia. 1.3% GDP growth rate in 2013 is expected to deteriorate Capital outflow 5% FDI inflows to Russia have shrunk, combined with significant 4 capital outflow. The trend will maintain and have long-term effects 3 2 1 ? Increasing retail prices 0 Food supply shortages similar to 1980s should not be expected – 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f yet PPP is likely to decrease. Retail prices will gradually rise, outbound tourist flow is to decline. However, business always finds Reviewed forecasts Previous forecasts a way, e.g. “new” products like Belorussian mussels may emerge EFFECT OF COUNTER-SANCTIONS ON WESTERN ECONOMIES IS LIMITED, ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES SOURCES: IMF, ROSSTAT, WORLD BANK, INTERNAL ANALYSIS BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 15 AGENDA Key facts, current situation and trade sanctions Business Climate Survey – Russia 2014 Business Sweden in Russia Railway delegation to Kazachstan - 2014 BUSINESS SWEDEN 2014-09-16 16 PROVEN METHODOLOGY QUESTIONNAIRE AND INTERVIEWS WITH SWEDISH EXECUTIVES IN RUSSIA The Business Climate Survey is conducted by Business Sweden in cooperation with Magnusson
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