N°26 - February 14 2008 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS ARMENIA P. 1 ARMENIA c Presidential election in Presidential election in Armenia : remaining a vassal Armenia : remaining a vassal of Russia or opting for of Russia or opting for emancipation? emancipation? Following Georgia’s election, and taking place before Azerbaijan’s, Armenia will be electing a new pres- P. 2 KAZAKHSTAN ident on February 19 as President Robert Kocharyan ends his second terms in office. Nine candidates Aktau hoping to compete with are vying for the top post in a contest marked, according to observers, by a duel between the outgoing Prime Atyrau Minister, Serge Sarkisyan, and former President Levon Ter Petrosyan. Although polls give Sarkisyan the P. 3 ENERGY advantage, Ter Petrosyan’s return has refocused politics on four main issues. Washington pulls out all the stops in Turkmenistan The first issue deals with stability and democracy, in the name of which the Kocharyan-Sarkisyan tan- dem did everything to ensure that the May 2007 legislative election took place according to western stan- dards and in such a way as to avoid any “colored revolutions” and to prevent any international criticism. READ ALSO… Although in 2007 the OSCE saluted a distinct progress in democracy, one year later European observers have expressed concern over the aggressive tone of the campaign and the unstable climate: the arrest of RUSSIA INTELLIGENCE demonstrators for breach of the peace, shots directed at Sarkisyan’s headquarters in Yerevan, and Molo- www.russia-intelligence.fr tov cocktails thrown at Ter Petrosyan’s campaign headquarters in Vanadzor. Ter Petrosyan has denounced KREMLIN c Medvedev vs Sechin : “cleptocracy” within the leadership dating back to 1998 and nicknamed Sarkisyan the Armenian “Beria”, the Khodorkovsky test claiming he was responsible for the October 27, 1999 parliament massacre. Even though his chances are limited, Ter Petrosyan is trying to destabilize the regime by forcing the prime minister into a second round BEHIND THE SCENE c Kurile islands: progress in order to better launch a post-electoral protest against election conditions. A native of Nagorno-Karabakh, in sight ? Serge Sarkisyan rose through the ranks of the Armenian leadership. He headed various power ministries FOCUS from1993 till the present (security services, interior and defense ministries). He worked closely with An- c Medvedev : is another drey Rapoport, the vice president of Russia’s RAU-UES, which has a monopoly on electric power in Arme- foreign policy possible? nia. Serge’s brother, Alexandre “Sachig” Sarkisyan lives in the United States, earned his fortune in real es- ECONOMY tate in Los Angeles and travels back and forth between California and Armenia for his business. If he wins c Russian elites over come the presidential election, Sarkisyan may appoint Robert Kocharyan as prime minister, a key post in Armen- with anxiety ian politics since the constitutional reform of November 2005. Vartan Oskanyan, the current foreign af- MINES, ENERGY... fairs minister who has been at the post since 1998 could become head of the Millennium Challenge Cor- c The Chemezov steamroller poration in Armenia, a fund of the US State Department which rewards democratic and economic progress ALUMINIUM in countries in transition. Those best placed to replace him include Edward Nalbandyan, the Armenian c The Chinese temptation ambassador to France, who has close ties to Russian oligarchs, and Tatul Markaryan, Armenian ambas- of Oleg Deripaska sador to the United States. For the post of minister of defense, the names most often mentioned are Seyran Ohanyan and Samuel Babayan. Both are natives of Nagorno-Karabakh. The former is the “defense min- UKRAINE INTELLIGENCE ister of Nagorno-Karabakh” and the latter joined the Ramgavar party (liberal democratic - conservative) www.ukraine-intelligence.fr after having spent several years in prison for threatening state security. Before his arrest he was defense DIPLOMACY minister of Nagorno-Karabakh. Thus Armenia’s leadership continues its Karabakhization policy, testify- c Russia-Ukraine : Why ing to Russia’s control over this South Caucasus state. nothing is really settled NETWORKS Indeed, peace in Nagorno-Karabakh is another issue Armenian politics is refocusing on. The OSCE has c Yanukovich-Akhmetov been put in charge of resolving the conflict, which has been suspended since 1994. During previous elec- tandem losing Followers tions, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue was never an issue in the campaign. This year, Ter Petrosyan has put it FOCUS back on the agenda. He believes that the longer the status quo goes on, the higher the risk of a new war c Oleg Deripaska, the erupting. He recommends giving Nagorno-Karabakh wide-ranging autonomy as part of Azerbaijan. Sark- Timoshenko Government’s isyan, backed by other candidates, hopes that the recognition of the independence of Kosovo will have a New Target positive influence in helping resolve the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. The leadership of the Minsk Group SUBSCRIPTION (Russia – The United States – France) is expecting Yerevan and Baku to make a declaration of principles Electronic Edition before the Armenian election. But Kocharyan is opposed to this and has derided the remark made by Ter (PDF, published every two weeks, Petrosyan that “Azerbaijan is the country that links Armenia to the outer world”. 23 issues per year) SPECIAL OFFER Then there is the issue of ending Armenia’s isolation: its economy has been growing by double digits Discount 15 % for the past six years (13.4% in 2007) and the World Bank has called it the “Caucasian Tiger’. But Ter Pet- €600 rosyan accuses the outgoing leadership of having sold off the country’s wealth to Russia. He is of the opin- € 510 per year ion that all the key sectors of the economy have fallen into the hands of Russian d d d Continue page 2 A EURASIAN INTELLIGENCE PUBLICATION CENTRAL ASIA & CASPIAN INTELLIGENCE KAZAKHSTAN c Aktau hoping to compete with Atyrau The members of the elite class of Aktau, the administrative at least a half dozen tankers take the Aktau-Baku and Ak- capital of the Mangystau region, located in western Kazakhstan tau-Makhachkala routes, going back and forth 7 or 8 times along the banks of the Caspian Sea, all share one and the same per month with oil from Tengiz or Buzachi on board, amount- goal: to become “a second Atyrau” and emulate the develop- ing to over a million tons per ship annually. Apart from its ment of the country’s oil capital. Oil production does indeed cooperation with Azerbaijan within the context of the BTC, amount to 95% of the region’s activity, but the hydrocarbons pro- Aktau also has great hopes for its swap operations with Iran cessing industries (one in Aktau itself, another in the small and is planning to increase deliveries to the port to Neka, town of Janaozen) are still rare. The region is considered to which is linked by a pipeline to the Tehran refinery. The port be one of the richest in the country, with oil reserves estimated charges are far less than the exorbitant amounts charged in at 3 billion tons and gas reserves at 2.5 billion cubic meters. Russia and Azerbaijan. However, unlike oil production, which is increasing regularly, gas production dropped by 25% between 2006 and 2007. There Just like the central government, the local admin- are 13 oil companies in the region, the three main ones being istration in Aktau tries to apply maximum pressure on for- OzenMunaiGaz, the subsidiary of KazMunaiGaz which devel- eign companies in the region in order to guarantee itself a ops the Uzen fields, the Russian-Kazakh joint venture Mangis- piece of the pie. But Aktau must also wage battle against As- tauMunaiGaz, and the North Buzachi joint venture between tana in order to get a part of the revenue from the oil wind- the Chinese company CNPC (50%), Lukoil (25%) and Mittal fall spent on improving the conditions of the local population. (25%). There are other, more modest joint ventures working on The situation has been particularly difficult since the nuclear the peninsula such as KarakudukMunai, which belongs to plant, which supplied electricity to the 200,000 thousand res- Lukoil Overseas, and Tasbolat, a subsidiary of Romania’s Petrom, idents in the city and was used to desalinated water for drink- which is involved in developing three small fields. ing, closed in 1999. In September 2007, in a bid to regain con- trol of the city’s development, the authorities launched the The region’s second source of wealth is its port. Ak- construction of a huge real estate project measuring over 4 tau, known as Shevtchenko during the Soviet era, is located at million square meters, called Aktau-City. The aim is to make the tip of the Mangyshlak peninsula. It is in fact the port in it into a great tourist and business center in the Mangytau re- Kazakhstan that is furthest out on the Caspian Sea. It has been gion. Several oil companies are helping to finance it. Lukoil, operational since the 1960s. Unlike Atyrau, which is further for example, has put in one million dollars. Kazemir Hold- north, Aktau’s waters are free of ice in the winter. The port has ing, a construction company comprised in part by the United a multi-purpose terminal and its capacity is set to increase with Arab Emirates, manages the complex. Mangystau has thus the construction of five new oil and merchandise terminals – become one of the pivotal regions in Kazakhstan – a fact that an initiative launched by Transport and Communications Min- was confirmed by the nomination in 2006 of Krymbek ister Serik Akhmetov in 2006. Like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan is Kucherbaev to the post of governor.