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DRAFT IH 35E Managed Lane Level 2 Study

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DRAFT IH 35E Managed Lane Level 2 Study THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK October 16, 2009 Mr. Doug Woodall, P.E. Director of Planning and Development Texas Turnpike Authority Division of TxDOT 125 East 11th Street Austin, TX 78071 Re: IH 35E Managed Lanes Intermediate Level 2 Traffic and Toll Revenue Study Dear Mr. Woodall: Wilbur Smith Associates (WSA) is pleased to submit this report of our traffic and toll revenue study for the proposed IH 35E Managed Lanes project located in Dallas and Denton counties. The report summarizes the findings of the study, which included development of traffic and toll revenue estimates for a 52-year period. This study builds upon previous study prepared by WSA and the extensive data collected as part of this study and enhanced the travel demand model with updated information. The study describes the methodologies implemented to collect new data within the corridor and the enhancements undertaken as part of the model development to forecast the traffic and toll revenue that the managed lane project will generate under defined alternatives. Our project team, including Xiaojin (Jerry) Ji, Liren Zhou, Kristin McLeod and others, gratefully acknowledge the assistance and cooperation received from TxDOT as well as others contacted during the course of the study. WSA sincerely appreciates the opportunity to have participated in this important project. Respectfully submitted, WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES Christopher E. Mwalwanda Vice President 4925 Greenville Avenue, Suite 1300, Dallas, Texas 75206-4085 P 214-890-4460, F 214-890-7521 www.WilburSmith.com THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Intermediate Level 2 Traffic and Toll Revenue Study IH 35E Managed Lanes DISCLAIMER Current accepted professional practices and procedures were used in the development of these traffic and revenue forecasts. However, as with any forecast of the future, it should be understood that there may well be differences between forecasted and actual results that may be caused by events and circumstances beyond the control of the forecasters. The WSA review and analysis has relied upon the accuracy and completeness of all of the information provided (both written and oral) by TxDOT and several local and state agencies. Publicly available and obtained material has neither been independently verified, nor does WSA assume responsibility for verifying, such information and has relied upon the assurances of the independent parties that they are not aware of any facts that would make such information misleading. WSA has made qualitative judgments related to several key variables within the analysis used to develop the traffic and revenue forecasts that must be considered as a whole; therefore selecting portions of any individual results without consideration of the intent of the whole may create a misleading or incomplete view of the results and the underling methodologies used to obtain the results. WSA gives no opinion as to the value or merit to partial information extracted from the report. All estimates and projections reported herein are based on WSA’ experience and judgment and on a review of independent third party projections and information obtained from multiple state and local agencies including TxDOT. These estimates and projections may not be indicative of actual or future values, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty. Future developments cannot be predicted with certainty, and may affect the estimates or projections expressed in the report, such that WSA does not specifically guarantee or warrant any estimate or projections contained within this report While WSA believes that some of the projections or other forward-looking statements contained within the report are based on reasonable assumptions as of the date in the report, such forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results predicted. WSA take no responsibility or obligation to advise of changes that may in any matter affect the assumptions contained within the report, following the date of this report as they pertain to: socioeconomic and demographic forecasts, proposed residential or commercial land use development projects and/or potential improvements to the regional transportation network. The report and its content are confidential and intended solely for use for the IH 35E Managed Lane project. Any use by third-parties, other than as noted above, is expressly prohibited. In addition, any publication of the report without the express written consent of WSA, is prohibited. The results contained in this report are not intended to be used to secure or obtain project financing therefore disclosure of the material in any official statement, prospectus, private placement memorandum or other document used to facilitate, offer, buy, or sell securities is strictly prohibited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Intermediate Level 2 Traffic and Toll Revenue Study IH 35E Managed Lanes TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE NUMBER Executive Summary ES-1 Chapter 1 – Introduction 1-1 Objective and Scope of Study 1-1 Existing Corridor Description 1-2 IH 35E Managed Lane Project Description 1-4 Project Alternatives Description 1-6 Report Structure 1-9 Chapter 2 – Existing Traffic Trends and Characteristics 2-1 Traffic Count Program 2-1 Historical Traffic Growth 2-2 IH 35E Count Collection 2-5 Screenline Counts 2-14 Speed and Delay Information 2-20 Stated Preference Survey 2-25 Origin/Destination Survey 2-27 License Plate Capture 2-27 Survey Distribution 2-28 Data Analysis 2-32 Chapter 3 – Dallas-Fort Worth Area Transportation Characteristics 3-1 Traffic Congestion Trends 3-2 Freeway and Tollway System 3-2 Rail Transit System 3-3 Chapter 4 – Economic Growth Analysis 4-1 NCTCOG Forecast Process 4-1 Historical and Future Regional Growth 4-5 Historical Regional Population Trends 4-5 Future Regional Population Growth 4-6 Historical Regional Employment Trends 4-8 Future Regional Employment Growth 4-9 Regional Median Household Income Trends 4-11 Historical and Future Municipal Growth 4-15 Historical Municipal Population Trends 4-15 Future Municipal Population Growth 4-18 Intermediate Level 2 Traffic and Toll Revenue Study IH 35E Managed Lanes Historical Municipal Employment Trends 4-18 Future Municipal Employment Growth 4-20 IH 35E Managed Lane Corrdidor Current and Future Development Growth 4-21 Major Employment Establishments 4-21 Future Population and Employment along the Proposed IH 35E Managed Lane Corridor 4-26 Other Economic Indicators 4-37 Consumer Price Index 4-37 Residential Housing Activity 4-39 Trends in Building Permits 4-40 Revised Demographics 4-42 Chapter 5 – Modeling Approach 5-1 Model Validation 5-2 Global Demand Estimates 5-6 Highway Network 5-7 Socioeconomic Assumptions 5-7 Base-Year Trip Tables 5-8 Future-Year Trip Tables 5-9 Travel Time Simulation Model (VISSIM) 5-9 Market Share Micro-Model 5-10 Market Share Analysis 5-10 Vehicle Categories 5-11 Chapter 6 – Traffic and Toll Revenue Estimates 6-1 Project Description and Modeling Alternatives 6-1 Conceptual Toll Collection Plan 6-6 Traffic and Revenue Estimate Basic Assumptions 6-8 Toll Rate/Operations Profiles 6-9 Estimated Weekday Managed Lane Traffic 6-22 Managed Lanes Traffic Share 6-35 Travel Time Savings Analysis 6-35 Estimated Average Weekday Transactions and Annual Toll Revenue 6-36 Chapter 7 – Toll Revenue Risk Analysis 7-1 Risk Analysis Methodology 7-1 Risk Analysis Assumptions 7-2 Risk Analysis Toll Revenue 7-7 Intermediate Level 2 Traffic and Toll Revenue Study IH 35E Managed Lanes ILLUSTRATIONS FIGURE PAGE ES-1 IH 35E Managed lane Project Location and Segments ES-2 ES-2 Project Alternatives ES-6 1-1 IH 35E Managed Lane Project Location and Segments 1-3 1-2 Configuration of IH 35E Managed Lane Project 1-5 1-3 Project Segment and Alternative Configuration 1-8 2-1 Historical Traffic Growth (North) 2-3 2-2 Historical Traffic Growth (South) 2-4 2-3 2008 Traffic Count Locations 2-6 2-4 Average Weekday Traffic Volume 2-8 2-5 Traffic Temporal Distribution (North) 2-10 2-6 Traffic Temporal Distribution (South) 2-11 2-7 Northbound IH 35E 2008 Traffic Profile 2-12 2-8 Southbound IH 35E 2008 Traffic Profile 2-12 2-9 Truck Percentage along IH 35E 2-14 2-10 Screenline Counts Location 2-15 2-11 Average Weekday Traffic Volume of Screenline 1 and 3 2-18 2-12 Average Weekday Traffic Volume of Screenline 2 and 4 2-19 2-13 Speed and Delay Run Routes 2-22 2-14 Travel Speed Reconnaissance – AM Peak 2-23 2-15 Travel Speed Reconnaissance – PM Peak 2-24 2-16 License Plate Capture Sites 2-29 2-17 IH 35E O/D Survey Instrument (Page 1) 2-30 2-18 IH 35E O/D Survey Instrument (Page 2) 2-31 2-19 IH 35E O/D Survey Results 2-33 3-1 Traffic Congestion Level of 2007 and 2030 3-5 3-2 Funded Roadway Recommendations in 2030 MTP 2009 Amendment 3-6 3-3 Priced Facilities Planned in 2030 MTP 2009 Amendment 3-7 3-4 Passenger Rail Recommendations 3-8 4-1 NCTCOG Forecast Process 4-2 4-2 Ten-County Area Location 4-5 4-3 2000 and 2030 Population 4-7 4-4 Population Annual Growth Rate 4-8 4-5 2000 and 2030 Employment 4-10 4-6 Employment Annual Growth Rate 4-11 4-7 Median Household Income 4-12 4-8 Median Household Income 2008 4-14 4-9 Municipality Locations 4-16 4-10 DFW Scorecard 2008 4-23 Intermediate Level 2 Traffic and Toll Revenue Study IH 35E Managed Lanes 4-11 Major Employment Establishments 4-25 4-12 Population Increment (2000 to 2030) 4-27 4-13 Population Annual Growth (2000 to 2030) 4-28 4-14 2000 Population Density 4-30 4-15 2030 Population Density 4-31 4-16 Employment
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