Fall Chinook Work Group Tuesday, 30 April 2019 Grant PUD (USBOR Building) Ephrata, WA

Technical members Paul Wagner, NMFS Joe Skalicky/Don Anglin, USFWS Jeff Fryer, CRITFC Paul Ward/Bob Rose, YN Holly Harwood, BPA Brett Swift, American Rivers Tom Kahler, DPUD Steve Hemstrom, CPUD Bill Tweit, WDFW Paul Hoffarth, WDFW Breean Zimmerman, WDOE John Clark, ADFG Peter Graf, GPUD Todd Pearsons, GPUD

Attendees: Peter Graf, GPUD John Clark, ADFG (phone) Paul Hoffarth, WDFW (phone) Paul Wagner, NMFS (phone) Todd Pearsons, GPUD Tom Kahler, DPUD Jeff Fryer, CRITFC Geoff McMichael, Mainstem Fish Res (phone) Dani Evenson, ADFG (phone) Tom Skiles, CRITFC (phone) Pat Wyena, Wanapum (phone) Rod O’Connor, GPUD Ryan Harnish, PNNL (phone) Claire McGrath, NMFS (phone) Scott Bettin, BPA (phone) Tracy Hillman, Facilitator

Action Items: 1. Peter Graf will provide updates on the HRFCPPA Periods and Flow Constraints. 2. Peter Graf will work with Grant PUD administrative staff on uploading FCWG/HRWG documents to the Grant PUD website or to a SharePoint site.

Fall Chinook Work Group Final Meeting Minutes 30 April 2019 1 Meeting Minutes

I. Welcome and Introductions – Tracy Hillman welcomed attendees to the meeting. Attendees introduced themselves. II. Agenda Review – The agenda was reviewed and approved. III. Review of Action Items - Action items identified during the 29 October 2018 meeting were discussed. • Peter Graf will provide updates on the HRFCPPA Periods and Flow Constraints. Ongoing. • FCWG members will review the draft 2018 HRFCPPA Report and provide edits/comments to Peter Graf by Friday, 30 November 2018. Complete. • Peter Graf will work with Grant PUD administrative staff on uploading FCWG/HRWG documents to the Grant PUD website or to a SharePoint site. Ongoing. IV. HRWG Activities 2018-2019 Protection Program Updates – Peter provided a summary on fall Chinook spawning surveys conducted on Vernita Bar last year. He explained that reverse load factoring (RLF) began on 15 October 2018, which resulted in higher river flows at night (see Figure below).

Fall Chinook Work Group Final Meeting Minutes 30 April 2019 2 He then described their fall Chinook spawning surveys conducted in 2018. They conducted five redd surveys on Vernita Bar in 2018 (see Figure above and Table below). They observed one redd during the first survey. They observed eight redds on the second survey; six below the 50 kcfs elevation and two above the 50 kcfs elevation. Because five redds are required for the Initiation of Spawning, Peter said the Initiation of Spawning below the 50 kcfs elevation was set on Wednesday, 24 October 2018. During the third survey, they observed 24 redds; 19 in the 50-55 kfcs elevation zone and five above the 55 kcfs elevation. This survey established the Initiation of Spawning date for the above 50 kcfs elevation as 31 October 2018. On the fourth survey, they counted 128 redds of which 67 were in the 50-55 kcfs elevation zone. During the final survey, which was a supplemental survey conducted on 25 November 2018, they counted 76 redds in the 50-55 kcfs elevation zone and 54 above the 55 kcfs elevation. Based on these data, the critical elevation was set at 65 kcfs.

Peter showed the number of redds counted on Vernita Bar over time (see Figure below). He said the number of redds counted in 2018 was similar to 2017.

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Peter also talked briefly about run timing. He used percent passage of fall Chinook at McNary Dam to assess run timing and noted that the run in 2018 had an average run time compared to previous years (see Figure below).

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Peter then described the temperature conditions on Hanford Reach in 2018. Water temperatures during spawning and early incubation were warmer than average, while temperatures during late incubation were cooler than average (see Figures below). Temperatures during emergence and early rearing are similar to average conditions.

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Peter said the critical elevation of 65 kcfs will be held until mid-May. He said there were no flows below the 65 kcfs elevation; however, flows from mid-March to mid-April were low and this concerned river managers. The low flows were the result of flow releases from Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams. These projects were being managed to address flows for lower Columbia chum salmon and Chinook salmon. Scott Bettin, BPA, noted that at least 67 kcfs is released from Grand Coulee Dam.

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Peter noted that flow management operations during the 2018-2019 season have been successful to date. He indicated there have been no flow violations during the 2018-2019 protection period. On Monday, 22 April 2019, Priest Rapids Dam increased flow beyond 20 kcfs, which was the daily constraint based on Rock Island inflow; however, the fluctuation was in a positive direction and on a Monday, which is allowable under the HRFCPPA (see Figure below). Peter also noted that between 15 April and 16 April, flows fluctuated across the midnight hour. Because daily flow fluctuation constraints are recorded from hour 1 to hour 24, a single fluctuation event across midnight may be partitioned between two days. The partitioning of single fluctuation will be avoided going forward (see Figures below). Minimum flow requirements will continue through mid-May 2019 and flow fluctuation constraints will be maintained through mid-June 2019.

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Peter said he will continue to provide updates on the HRFCPPA Periods and Flow Constraints. He indicated that all temperature and flow data are displayed on the Grant PUD website: https://www.grantpud.org/water-quality. 2018 Fall Chinook Escapement Review – Paul Hoffarth reported that about 78,000 fall Chinook (both natural and hatchery-origin fish) escaped to the Hanford Reach last year (see Figure below).

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Paul described briefly the Harvest Management Plan and said WDFW tries to meet escapement levels with terminal harvest. The Management Plan allows for a 10% harvest allocation at low escapements (<34,500 fish). At escapements greater than 34,500 fish, harvest allocation increases. He showed a figure that compares run projections with actual escapements and noted that the spawning escapement goal is 31,110 fall Chinook (see Figure below). In general, the forecasts tend to underestimate the actual escapements when escapements are large. At lower escapements, return forecasts are close to the actual escapements.

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Paul said harvest on the Reach last year was about 10,000 Chinook. He added that the new super baits are very effective in catching fall Chinook.

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Paul then showed the following table, which summarizes the number of fall Chinook going to hatcheries, harvest, and numbers spawning naturally.

Fall Chinook Work Group Final Meeting Minutes 30 April 2019 12 Paul provided the following table showing estimates of the number of fry produced from last years spawning escapement. He described two different methods used to estimate number of fry. The two methods estimated about 12 million to 31 million fry this year. It was noted that the egg-fry survival estimate of 30% is likely too low. The rate should be closer to 70%, which means the fry estimate could be as high as 70 million fry in 2019.

Lastly, Paul showed the time series of Hanford Reach fall Chinook escapements (see Figure below).

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2019 Estimated Fall Chinook Escapement – Paul Hoffarth reported, based on his recent forecast, that about 98,000 natural and hatchery- origin fall Chinook should escape to the Hanford Reach this year (see Table below). This includes about 29,000 Priest Rapids Hatchery fish, about 4,000 Ringold Hatchery fish, and roughly 65,000 natural-origin fish. Paul reminded the FCWG that these are just “ball-park” estimates. He said 2019 is looking to be a normal year and WDFW plans to implement a standard terminal harvest.

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2019 CRITFC Tagging Activities – Jeff Fryer described his proposed tagging activities on the Reach in 2019. He said tagging efforts will be similar to past years with the goal of tagging 200,000 juvenile fall Chinook with CWTs. Jeff said he received funding from the PSC CTC for an extra 50,000 tags for 2019. This will allow them to tag over 250,000 juvenile fall Chinook if sufficient fish are captured. He will also PIT-tag about 10,000 juvenile fall Chinook. Jeff indicated he plans to start tagging on 30 May and will conclude on 11 June. Anyone wanting to participate in the tagging efforts should contact Jeff. Finally, Jeff said they will be working with Real Time Research on estimating the effects of bird predation on PIT-tagged juvenile fall Chinook. V. Priest Rapids Hatchery Activities Todd Pearsons said the final 2017-2018 hatchery M&E report is available on the Grant PUD website. He said they are currently working on the 2018-2019 report. The draft report should be available for review this fall. Todd indicated that the release schedule for fall Chinook from the Priest Rapids Fish Hatchery this spring will be the same as last year. That is, fish within the five ponds will be released at different times. Fish in one pond will be released on 23 May, fish in a second pond will be released on 24 May, fish in the third pond will be released on 10 June, and fish in the remaining two ponds will be released after 13 June or later. This will result in fish being released before and after

Fall Chinook Work Group Final Meeting Minutes 30 April 2019 15 CRITFC tagging, but not during tagging. Todd indicated that fish in each pond will be differentially marked with CWT and PIT tags. This will allow them to estimate survival rates (SARs) for fish within each release group. Todd noted that fish will be released at night to reduce predation. Todd said this year they plan to collect 650 adult fall Chinook broodstock at the OLAFT and 500 within the ABC (adult broodstock collection) fishery for the Priest Rapids Hatchery. VI. Studies on the Reach Geoff McMichael indicated that they received funds from the PSC Northern Fund to evaluate growth metrics from otolith samples of natural-origin recruits to test the hypothesis that early freshwater growth of Hanford Reach fall Chinook salmon is related to adult spawner and/or subsequent juvenile abundance (density dependent effects). They sampled otoliths from two low escapement years (2007 and 2008) and two high escapement years (2010 and 2013). Because of limited funding, they examined otoliths from only age-4 natural-origin returns. They found that fish size at estuary entry averaged 83 and 91 mm for the two low escapement years and 83 and 80 mm for the two high escapement years. There was little evidence of negative density dependence in these analyses. Interestingly, fish size at estuary entry was smaller than expected. Geoff said they mined the data and found what appeared to be some spurious correlations. He indicated that additional brood years are needed to examine the effects of density dependence. Geoff also described his study on non-native predators. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the effectiveness of manipulating McNary reservoir elevations on reducing predators that prey on juvenile fall Chinook. The intent is to use reservoir elevations to reduce recruitment of walleye and smallmouth bass, which prey on juvenile fall Chinook. Reservoir elevation manipulation would primarily target walleye larvae but could also be used to reduce smallmouth bass recruitment by changing velocities and depths during bass spawning. Geoff said they are currently working on Phase I of the study, which is to determine the abundance and distribution of walleye larvae. So far, they have collected about 2,000 larvae1 around the Yakima River delta and in the Columbia River. They are using hydraulic modeling to determine an appropriate flow-related action. John Clark reported that Canada is restructuring their fisheries to protect Fraser River fish. This may or may not affect Upper Columbia River fall Chinook. That is, it is not clear if the restructuring of the

1 Following the meeting, Geoff indicated that the larvae may not be walleye. They could be sculpin larvae. Geoff will provide an update after the species of the larvae are confirmed. Fall Chinook Work Group Final Meeting Minutes 30 April 2019 16 fisheries will increase or decrease harvest on Upper Columbia River fall Chinook. The change in the Canadian fishery is to benefit Fraser River stocks, not killer whale populations. VII. Next Meeting: The FCWG will next meet on Tuesday, 1 October 2019.

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