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Ncsoft (036570 KS) Company Company September 3, 2012 Game NCsoft (036570 KS) Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Chang-kwean Kim Expecting huge success for Guild Wars 2 +822-768-4321 [email protected] Guild Wars 2 to be more successful than previously anticipated th On August 28 , NCsoft commercially launched Guild Wars 2 in the US and Europe. The gameÊs sales volume (offline CD sales and downloads) had already exceeded th 1mn copies before „early access‰ began on August 25 . And the number of concurrent users exceeded the 400,000 level during the „early access‰ period. Since mid-August, Guild Wars 2 has topped the list of most popular PC games at AmazonÊs US, British, French, and German websites. Furthermore, high-margin Buy (Maintain) download sales are strong. Target Price (12M, W) 420,000 Share Price (08/31/12, W) 252,500 Most importantly, feedback for Guild Wars 2 has been favorable. In our view, Expected Return (%) 66.3 feedback will be the most important factor affecting the gameÊs success. In EPS Growth (12F, %) 47.8 particular, with the proliferation of social network sites like Facebook, the influence Market EPS Growth (12F, %) 12.7 of online reviews on the fortunes of online games is increasing. It should be noted P/E (12F, x) 30.9 that some editions of Guild Wars 2 were listed as "sold out" on the gameÊs official Market P/E (12F, x) 10.2 website due to capacity limitations. KOSPI 1,905.12 Market Cap (Wbn) 5,528 Still, investors are concerned that revenue models for Guild Wars 2 could be weak. Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 During 2005~2007, four episodes of Guild Wars 1 were released. And CD sales Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 305 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 73 volume of each episode reached 1.1mn~1.6mn copies during the first six months of Dividend Yield (12F, %) 0.4 release. Net revenues per CD were only around US$30, and the proportion of low- Free Float (%) 76.3 margin offline sales (out of overall sales volume) was high. As such, a CD sales 52-Week Low (W) 203,000 volume of 1mn led to revenues of just W30bn and an operating profit of W12bn (OP 52-Week High (W) 386,000 margin of 40%). Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 0.69 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 2.9 However, we anticipate Guild Wars 2 to exceed the results of its predecessor and Foreign Ownership (%) 43.3 market expectations. Factoring in strong presales volume and current robust sales, Major Shareholder(s) we project the gameÊs cumulative CD sales volume to exceed 3~4mn copies in 3Q NEXON Co., Ltd.(14.7%) (including presales) and reach 5~6mn in 2012. Given these sales volume T.J. Kim et al. (10.41%) assumptions, major earnings variables (e.g., game item purchases, average NPS (9.19%) Price Performance revenues per user) should be favorable. (%) 1M 6M 12M Currently, our 2012 and 2013 earnings estimates for NCsoft are based on the Absolute 12.7 -8.8 -27.8 Relative 11.5 -2.7 -29.1 following assumptions: 1) 2012 Guild Wars 2 CD sales volume of 3.12mn; 2) 2013 Key Business CD sales volume of 1.54mn; 3) our projection that 400,000 gamers (10% of CD A computer game company focusing on buyers and downloaders) will spend US$15 on item purchases per month. Under MMORPG. these assumptions, we estimate the game to generate revenues of W164.3bn in 2012 and W162.9bn in 2013. Given the recent strong performance of the game, we could raise our Guild Wars 2-related earnings estimates by 1.5~2 times. Share price FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 130 KOSPI (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (X) (X) (X) 110 12/10 660 174 26.3 144 6,602 243 187 20.8 31.6 6.3 16.3 12/11 609 135 22.2 121 5,529 161 -120 15.1 55.6 8.1 38.7 90 12/12F 837 222 26.5 179 8,174 225 -245 18.9 30.9 5.5 23.5 70 12/13F 1,106 469 42.5 369 16,852 474 355 30.5 15.0 4.1 10.4 50 12/14F 1,229 563 45.8 449 20,537 568 426 28.3 12.3 3.1 8.0 8/11 12/11 4/12 8/12 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. .
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