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Causes of Success and Failure of Stand-Alone Solar Electric Systems in Rural Guatemala

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Causes of Success and Failure of Stand-Alone Solar Electric Systems in Rural Guatemala Causes of Success and Failure of Stand-alone Solar Electric Systems in Rural Guatemala by H. J. Corsair A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland November, 2013 © 2013 H. J. Corsair All Rights Reserved Abstract The causes of success and failure of stand-alone solar electric systems in rural Guatemala may be technical, institutional, cultural or economic. This research examines these causes using a mixed-methods approach that includes interviews with members of poor, rural communities to which stand-alone solar electric systems have been donated, physical inspections of these systems, and conversations with development professionals working in rural electrification. “Success” is a complex concept, here defined as a combination of user perception of success, utility to users, and optimality as a source of energy. Economics are a strong driver of system success: systems generally offer users cost savings, but few income generating opportunities; access to capital when components need replacement is a significant obstacle; and relatively wealthier beneficiaries are better able to maintain donated systems than are their poorer neighbors. The institutions and relationships that surround systems also influence success and failure: local institutions like energy committees can help systems be more successful, while national and regional institutions such as Guatemala’s weak justice system and extensive organized crime networks contribute to failure. Beneficiary sense of “ownership” and monetary contributions to projects by beneficiaries are not contributors to system success, while accountability to donors and ongoing donor involvement are. The quality of the design and installed components of the physical system may have little bearing on system success. Donors must be clear about their own and beneficiaries’ definitions of success, and must be willing to challenge received wisdom about what will lead to more and less successful projects. Defining success as a high rate of operable systems will tend to favor relatively wealthier beneficiaries, leading to questions of social justice and whether energy interventions are most appropriate to those living in extreme poverty. Further, physically interconnected energy systems such as microgrids can lead to stronger social and institutional connections than do the physically independent systems included in this research. Readers: Dr. Emma Cervone, Dr. Benjamin F. Hobbs, Dr. Erica Schoenberger ii Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincerest appreciation to those who made this dissertation and my graduate studies at The Johns Hopkins University possible: My first acknowledgement must go to the people in rural communities in Guatemala who were willing to talk to me, who provided the data for this research. They generously shared their experiences, as well as many cups of coffee, tortillas, fruit and other small tokens, with no expectation of reciprocity: the knowledge I have gained is a gift from them. My advisors, Dr. Ben Hobbs and Dr. Erica Schoenberger have provided me invaluable support in all aspects of this research. I lack the space here to enumerate the guidance, insights and knowledge they have provided, and especially validation of the value of my work. Additional faculty members have also aided and guided me in this work and in my studies, including Drs. Catherine Norman, William Ball, Margaret Keck, Kellee Tsai, Katrina McDonald and many others. I also acknowledge Dr. Charles Revelle, who inspired me, though sadly was not here to guide me for very long. Dr. Debora Ley was my research partner, co-adventurer, frequent interpreter, logistical mastermind, confidante, and partner on a quest to find a good mocha somewhere in Guatemala. Debbie’s contacts, sharp memory, endless patience and profound understanding of the people of Guatemala helped me to survive (sometimes literally) the long and often difficult months of field research. Further, her knowledge of this subject matter has been invaluable to me in her help with this research and as co-author of papers and conference presentations with me. Todo bien. My gratitude also goes to the Guatemalan Ministry of Energy and Mines, which offered data and logistical support for this research, as did Fundación Solar, and many other individuals and agencies in Guatemala. My thanks go to Rhett Roberts, who has spent many hours editing, formatting and otherwise helping with the production of this document. Above all, I am grateful to Drew Meyers, who has earned this as much as I have. iii T ABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Electricity in the developing world ............................................................ 1 1.2. Research questions ..................................................................................... 3 1.3. Contribution of this research ...................................................................... 5 1.4. Research setting and methodology ............................................................ 6 1.5. Scope .......................................................................................................... 8 Chapter 2. Defining Success .............................................................................................. 9 2.1. Are successful projects the right goal? .................................................... 11 2.2. Project evaluation and project success: previous and analogous work .... 13 2.2.1. Evaluation and Success ................................................................ 13 2.2.2. Evaluation and success in energy-related development ............... 14 2.2.3. Evaluation and success in water, sanitation and agriculture development ................................................................................. 20 2.2.4. Success and evaluation in microfinance ...................................... 23 2.2.5. Success in an analogous situation: perceptions of a small hydro project ...................................................................................................... 24 2.2.6. Conclusions concerning project evaluation and success ............. 25 2.3 Operability ............................................................................................... 26 2.3.1. Success and operability – the strange case of Chel ...................... 27 2.3.2. Chel background .......................................................................... 27 2.3.3. Solar for phones in Chel .............................................................. 29 2.3.4. Solar for home and business ........................................................ 32 2.4. User perceptions ....................................................................................... 34 iv 2.4.1. User perception of success ........................................................... 34 2.4.2. User perception of value .............................................................. 36 2.4.3. Users in their own words ............................................................. 37 2.5. Optimality ................................................................................................ 41 2.6. Working definition of success .................................................................. 42 2.7. Conclusions .............................................................................................. 44 Chapter 3. Context, literature review and hypotheses ............................................... 45 3.1. Context: International development and the concept of aid .................... 46 3.1.1. Sustainable development and “sustainability” ............................. 46 3.1.2. International aid ........................................................................... 47 3.1.3. International aid for development ................................................ 48 3.1.4. Donor Motivation ......................................................................... 50 3.1.5. The success and failure of aid ...................................................... 52 3.1.6. Conclusions concerning the contexts of international development and aid ...................................................................................................... 55 3.2. Context: Electricity in Guatemala ............................................................ 55 3.2.1. The need for and advantages of renewable energy ...................... 56 3.2.2. The need for electricity ................................................................ 56 3.2.3. Rural electrification using solar photovoltaics ............................ 57 3.3. Why Guatemala? ...................................................................................... 59 3.4. Rural electrification in Guatemala in context .......................................... 60 v 3.4.1. Guatemala background ................................................................ 61 3.4.2. The legacy of civil war ................................................................ 64 3.4.3. Modern Guatemala ....................................................................... 71 3.5. Hypotheses ............................................................................................... 76 3.5.1. Economic value and utility .......................................................... 76 3.5.2. Institutions and relationships ......................................................
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