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Crude Oil Turmoil and the Global Impact on Petrochemicals: Navigating an Uncertain Course Back to “Normal”

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Crude Oil Turmoil and the Global Impact on Petrochemicals: Navigating an Uncertain Course Back to “Normal” IHS CHEMICAL Crude Oil Turmoil and the Global Impact on Petrochemicals: Navigating an uncertain course back to “normal” Special Report Prospectus IHS Chemical Prospectus IHS CHEMICAL Contents Contents ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 3 Study Objective .......................................................................................................................... 4 Key Questions Addressed in the Study ...................................................................................... 5 Study Scope ............................................................................................................................... 6 Deliverables ............................................................................................................................... 7 Sample Study Content ............................................................................................................... 8 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 9 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 10 Study Team .............................................................................................................................. 12 Qualifications............................................................................................................................ 15 About IHS Chemical ................................................................................................................. 18 About IHS ................................................................................................................................. 19 Contact Information .................................................................................................................. 20 2 This prospectus is for the recipient’s internal use only. No part can be copied, distributed, or republished. © 2015 IHS . IHS CHEMICAL Introduction Oil prices have fallen by more than 50% from June 2014 levels due to a global oversupply of crude oil. Looking forward, IHS expects a continued weak crude oil price environment over the next few years, with increased volatility and sometimes excessive price swings. Though oil prices have recently been slowly recovering, another steep decline may be in the future. The dramatic decline in crude oil prices has complex implications for the global chemical industry. Changing oil prices may increase or decrease chemical demand, affect regional production competitiveness, and shift global chemical trade flows. Chemical companies are rethinking capital expenditure timelines, which could impact future supply and pricing of petrochemicals. Lower oil prices will have varying impacts on each industry and region. The petrochemical industry has seen changes in regional competitiveness – the playing field is leveling for once-disadvantaged oil-based feedstocks and the margins are shrinking for advantaged low-cost assets. Global trade flows will be affected by the flattening of production cost curves, lower freight rates increasing the competitive field, and changes in currency valuations. Alternative production technologies, such as coal-based chemical investments, will require re-evaluation in the face of a changed relative cost environment. All other things equal, better economic conditions and the substitution effect for materials (e.g. plastic for metal) as a result of the decline in oil prices should increase demand for many petrochemicals, while oil- based products will see declining costs. On-purpose olefin production economics may be challenged in a world with low oil prices, and some plans to build additional on-purpose units may be postponed or even reconsidered. Investments to optimize supply chain economics through international trade in precursors, such as PVC intermediates, may be postponed as declining regional cost differentials reduce investment incentives. Other capital projects and plans to ship shale-related feedstocks to other regions may be delayed or cancelled, as the investment prospects are re-evaluated for the same reason. 3 This prospectus is for the recipient’s internal use only. No part can be copied, distributed, or republished. © 2015 IHS . IHS CHEMICAL Study Objective The recovery of oil prices to early-2014 levels could happen over the short, medium, or long term. What types of companies will be “winners” and “losers” in each recovery situation? This study helps petrochemical companies plan for three different oil price recovery cases, discussing the associated risks and opportunities. In this study, IHS Chemical will present three cases for crude oil price recovery: a “V”-shape (e.g. 2008), a “U”-shape (e.g. 1990), and an “L”-shape (e.g. 1980) recovery. Each of these cases will assume oil reaches new low prices that will significantly change the behavior of petrochemical market participants. The implications for the petrochemical industry will be very different if the drop in oil prices is just a bump in the road (2008), a medium-term situation (1990) or a long-term new reality (1980). Oil Price Change from Pre-Crisis Levels (Percentage) Each position in the value chain has a different incentive structure, and will react differently to changes in crude oil prices over time. This study will examine the impact on key petrochemical value chains in major regions for situations where the crude oil price recovery happens rapidly (<2 years), over a medium term (2- 5 years), and long term (5-10+ years). For key regions, it will detail “turning points” (i.e. conditions at which industry behavior changes), and show the subsequent effect on production costs, operating rates, demand growth, and chemical prices and margins. Globally, the study will identify possible changes to trade patterns as freight rate changes affect regional competition. While approved new capacity in advantaged regions may go forward, development of new projects may pause or even cease. IHS currently provides clients an extensive “Base Case” forecast for energy and petrochemicals, which details the expected future markets. This study will help chemical industry participants navigate the recovery in oil prices, understanding the implications for three distinct recovery trajectories. Participants along the petrochemicals value chain must be prepared for a variety of possible trajectories in the return to “normal” crude oil prices: recognizing the signposts for these unexpected market environments and reacting based on an in-depth understanding of how each case could change the behavior of major chemical participants. 4 This prospectus is for the recipient’s internal use only. No part can be copied, distributed, or republished. © 2015 IHS . IHS CHEMICAL Key Questions Addressed in the Study What is the impact of alternative energy cases on the chemicals industry? How will the V-shape, U-shape, and L-shape oil price recoveries trigger changes in participant behavior? • As producers sit on historically high abundant cash assets and cash availability, what investment opportunities will be engaged? • What are the macro-economic implications of each case, given the high/low point and curve shape? What are the underlying economic conditions that might cause each recovery shape? • How will the competitiveness of other feedstocks (e.g. coal, natural gas, NGLs) compare? • How will different crude oil recovery paths affect the behavior of petrochemical companies? • Are certain asset types, business models, or regions advantaged or disadvantaged in each case? What are the implications for key value chains and major products? • How much will operating rates and margins for key petrochemical products in each region be affected by each recovery case? How will the flattening playing field affect regional trade? • If the V-shape, U-shape, or L-shape recovery case is realized, what actions should participants at each position along the value chain take to further their best interests? • What role will on-purpose production of propylene and butylene play in supplementing supply and setting prices during each recovery case? • Where should companies be investing in response to changes in the crude oil price? Does the timeline need to be immediate, or can it be put on hold for a few years? • How will polymers compete? Is substantial product substitution a viable threat/opportunity? What regions, value chains, and producers are most affected? What will their reactions be? • What will happen to local operating rates, trade flows, and margins? • Which regions and participants along major petrochemical value chains stand to benefit the most from each recovery case? Which regions and participants will feel the biggest strain? • How will high-cost producers (regional price setters) change their behavior? Can integrated margins be protected in low-cost producing regions with high exports? What are the turning points associated with an alternative case? • What relevant metrics/trigger values (turning points) should participants look for? Where are the turning points of alternative uses (i.e. naphtha to gasoline blending or aromatics) that demonstrate a new pricing mechanism is in effect? • How will a pause or cancellation
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