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Feeder Cattle Price Differentials Using Northeast Texas Beef Improvement Organization Sulphur Springs and Cattle Auction Data A

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Feeder Cattle Price Differentials Using Northeast Texas Beef Improvement Organization Sulphur Springs and Cattle Auction Data A FEEDER CATTLE PRICE DIFFERENTIALS USING NORTHEAST TEXAS BEEF IMPROVEMENT ORGANIZATION SULPHUR SPRINGS AND CATTLE AUCTION DATA A Thesis by TAIWO BANKOLE Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University-Commerce in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE August 2016 FEEDER CATTLE PRICE DIFFERENTIALS USING NORTHEAST TEXAS BEEF IMPROVEMENT ORGANIZATION SULPHUR SPRINGS AND CATTLE AUCTION DATA A Thesis by TAIWO BANKOLE Approved by: Advisor: Jose A. Lopez Committee: Jose A. Lopez Rafael Bakhtavoryan Douglas Eborn Associate Director: Derald Harp Director: Jose A. Lopez Dean of Graduate Studies: Arlene Horne iii Copyright © 2016 Taiwo Bankole iv ABSTRACT FEEDER CATTLE PRICE DIFFERENTIALS USING NORTHEAST TEXAS BEEF IMPROVEMENT ORGANIZATION SULPHUR SPRINGS AND CATTLE AUCTION DATA Taiwo Bankole, MS Texas A&M University-Commerce, 2016 Advisor: Jose A. Lopez, PhD The United States is a major contributor to the world’s beef production market with its large export market and the largest fed cattle industry in the world (United States Department of Agriculture, 2016). Price fluctuations are sources of risk to producers who are looking to profit from cattle production. Factors such as futures prices, physical and lot characteristics of cattle have been known to also effect cash prices. The objective of this study is to identify inherent market value for feeder cattle lot and physical characteristics of the Northeast Texas Beef Improvement Organization (NETBIO) cattle sold through Sulphur Springs Livestock Auctions (SSLA). NETBIO data over four years from Sulphur Springs Livestock Auction sales in Northeast Texas were used. Therefore, a hedonic regression model was used to analyze the impact of lot size, weight, sex, and breed and feeder cattle futures prices on feeder cattle cash prices. The results showed that lot size, weight, sex, breed or color and feeder cattle futures prices were significant variables in determining differences in feeder cattle cash prices. In particular, results showed that heifers v were discounted at a price of $8.37 per cwt compared to steers. On average, increase in weight by one cwt resulted in a discount of $0.04 per cwt all things being equal. The English breeds/crosses, such as Angus and Hereford, received the highest premium of $16.62/cwt compared to the base breed category of crossbred cattle. For most of the auction months, the feeder cattle cash prices and futures price were moving together. October futures month was associated with the highest increase ($3.60/cwt) in cash prices. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I acknowledge the contributions of my advisor and members of my thesis committee; Dr. Jose Lopez, Dr. Rafael Bahktavoryan, and Dr. Douglas Eborn. I specifically acknowledge and appreciate the contributions of Dr. Jacqueline Wahrmund. The spiritual, moral and financial support of my friends and family are also appreciated. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................1 United States and the World Meat Market………………………………………. 1 Production…………………………………………………………………..... 2 Consumption ………………………………………………………………… 3 Imports and Exports………………………………………………………… 5 Exports ……………………………………………………………………… 7 The United States Beef Cattle Industry ……………………………………….. 9 Structure of the United States’ Beef Cattle Industry ………………………. 12 Geographical Location of the U.S Beef Cattle Industry ……....................... 14 The Role of Texas and Northeast Texas in the U.S Beef Cattle Industry … 15 Feeder Cattle Fundamentals …………………………………………………… 15 Problem Statement .............................................................................................. 18 Objectives of Study ............................................................................................ 19 Organization of Chapters ................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................... 21 3. METHOD OF PROCEDURE .................................................................................. 35 Hedonic Pricing Model ....................................................................................... 35 Feeder Cattle Hedonic Pricing Model for NETBIO Sales at SSLA .................... 36 viii Description of Model Characteristics and Expectations ...................................... 39 Cattle Characteristics ………………………………………………….. 39 Lot Characteristics …………………………………………………… 46 Market Characteristics ………………………………………………… 46 Data Sources ...................................................................................................... 48 Description of NETBIO Sales at SSLA ............................................................... 49 NETBIO Data ...................................................................................................... 50 Descriptive Statistics ............................................................................................ 52 Model Assumption Diagnostics .......................................................................... 55 CHAPTER 4. RESULTS ................................................................................................................... 58 Regression Estimation Results ………………………………………………… 58 Results for Lot Characteristics ………………………………………….. 58 Cattle Characteristics ……………………………………………………. 59 5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS……………………………………………… 62 Recommendations for Further Research ……………………………………… 63 Policy Implications …………………………………………………………… 64 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 66 VITA .......................................................................................................................................... 73 ix LIST OF TABLES TABLE 3.1. Frequency Table of 47 Breeds and Breed Influences from NETBIO Sales at SSLA 2010-2013 .................................................................................................................... 41 3.2. Frequency Tables of 16 Breeds and Breed Influences from NETBIO Sales at SSLA 2010-2013. ..................................................................................................................... 43 3.3. Frequencies of Final 8 Breeds and Breed Influences from NETBIO Sales at SSLA 2010-2013 .................................................................................................................... 43 3.4. Classifications of Breed and Breed Influences from NETBIO Sales at SSLA 2010-2013 .....................................................................................................................45 3.5. Expected Signs of Parameter Estimates of the Hedonic Pricing Model .........................47 3.6. Feeder Cattle Characteristics Recorded in NETBIO Data from SSLA 2010-2013 …… 50 3.7. NETBIO Data by Gender from SSLA 2010-2013 …………………………………….. 51 3.8. Descriptive Statistics from NETBIO Feeder Cattle Sales at SSLA and CME Futures Prices 2010-2013 ............................................................................................................53 3.9. Descriptive Statistics by Sex from NETBIO Sales at SSLA .........................................54 4.1. Parameter Estimates from NETBIO SSLA for Specific Feeder Cattle Characteristics ....60 x LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1.1. World’s Largest Meat Producing Countries Average 2004-2014 ................................... 3 1.2. World’s Largest Meat Consuming Countries Average 2004-2014 ................................. 4 1.3. World’s Largest Meat Per Capita Consuming Countries Average 2004-2014 ................. 5 1.4. World’s Largest Meat Importing Countries Average 2004-2014 ..................................... 6 1.5. World’s Largest Meat Exporting Countries Average 2004-2014 ..................................... 8 1.6. January 1 U.S. Cattle Inventory, 1936-2016………………………………………… 10 1.7. United States Cattle on Feed 1,000 + Capacity Feedlots……………………………… 11 1.8. Value of Meat Animals Production in United States, 1965-2015…………………… 12 1.9. Cattle (Steer) Price, 2000-2014....................................................................................... 17 2.0. Total Supply of Beef 1970-2014 ..................................................................................... 18 3.1. The 16 Breeds Reported from NETBIO Sales at SSLA 2010-2013 ............................... 51 3.2. Frequency Distributions by Breed from NETBIO Sales at SSLA 2010-2013 ............... 54 3.3. Frequency Distributions by Breed and Sex from NETBIO Sales at SSLA 2010-2013 ....55 1 Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION Cattle production has been a major contributor to the United States’ economy for many years. As the world’s largest producer of beef, the United States has the largest fed cattle industry in the world with a large export market. However, the rapid expansion of this market is due to the growing beef demand in the United States. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), 19% of the total world’s beef production comes from the United States (USDA, 2015). The beef cattle industry contains two different segments
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