Israel and the Middle East News Update

Tuesday, January 24

Headlines:

 Netanyahu Warns: 'Surprises' for Trump Could Harm Israel  White House: ‘No Decision’ on US Embassy Move  Netanyahu: Trump offers 'Huge Opportunities'  Israel’s High Court Freezes Amona Deal  MK: If Settlement Bill Doesn’t Pass, No Bill Will Pass  France Condemns Israeli Housing Plans for East Jerusalem  Milchan Picks a Fight with Lawmaker over Corruption affair  Knesset set to release explosive report on 2014 Gaza war

Commentary:

 New York Times: “Trump Presidency Is Already Altering Israeli-Palestinian Politics”  By Ian Fisher, deputy executive editor at The New York Times  Yedioth Ahronoth: “Which Jerusalem will Trump Recognize?”  By Nahum Barnea

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts November 24, 2017 Ha’aretz Netanyahu Warns: 'Surprises' for Trump Could Harm Israel At a closed meeting with members of his Likud party Knesset faction, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that mistakes in handling relations in the near future with the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump are liable to inflict diplomatic damage on Israel."The diplomatic issue is a very important subject, presenting opportunities that could easily be squandered by thoughtless actions," the prime minister said. "In this reality, it is easily possible to lose the moment and to turn the relationship in a direction that would not serve Israel's aims." See also, “ISRAELI LEADER URGES NO 'SURPRISES' FOR TRUMP ADMINISTRATION” (AP)

Times of Israel White House: ‘No Decision’ on US Embassy Move White House press secretary Sean Spicer said Monday that “no decision” has yet been made on relocating the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. “We’re at the very early stages of that decision-making process,” he told reporters at a press briefing, after being asked about how the administration believed such a move — which President Donald Trump promised to do in his campaign — would serve US strategic interests. Spicer said that if he wanted, the president could move the US embassy by executive order, but he indicated that that was not on his agenda right now. See also,” Notes of caution surround U.S. embassy move to Jerusalem” (Reuters)

Ynet News Netanyahu: Trump offers 'Huge Opportunities' Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his opposition to members of the right-wing flank of his coalition government, warning against initiating steps to annex Ma’ale Adumim on Monday afternoon. Speaking at a Likud party faction meeting, Netanyahu said: “We have before us massive and significant opportunities for the security and future of the State of Israel. But they require responsibility from us and common sense so that we don’t miss them—neither the hour or the opportunities.” This was not the time, Netanyahu continued, for what he described as “knee-jerk” reactions or “dictating or for surprises. See also, “ FOREIGN LEADERS RESPOND TO TRUMP TAKING OFFICE” (JPost)

Jerusalem Post Israel’s High Court Freezes Amona Deal The High Court of Justice on Monday froze the relocation deal for the West Bank Amona outpost, just weeks before the February 8th evacuation date it had set for the 40 families that live in the hilltop community. It issued the temporary injunction in response to a petition against the deal, which the Palestinians had filed earlier in the day against the agreement the government had reached last month with the Amona families to peacefully leave their homes. The Palestinian petition comes on the heels of a declaration by the 40 Amona families that they already consider the deal null and void because the state has not lived up to its end of the agreement. Residents of the Amona outpost plan to hold an emergency meeting on the matter on Tuesday night. See also, High Court delays implementing Amona decision (Ynet News) 2

Jerusalem Post MK: If Settlement Bill Doesn’t Pass, No Bill Will Pass Bayit Yehudi MK Bezalel Smotrich warned on Monday that the government would grind to a halt if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tries to prevent the passage of a bill to legalize outposts and settlements in the West Bank. With the accession to the White House of President Donald Trump, Bayit Yehudi is now anxious to pass the legislation into law in order to retroactively legalize almost 4,000 settlement homes in Judea and Samaria built on private Palestinian land. Speaking to The Jerusalem Post, Smotrich said, “The whole coalition is obligated to vote for it, we are determined to pass this law, and it’s going to pass,” insisted Smotrich. “If it gets stuck in violation of the coalition agreements, then we will hold up other laws, if this bill doesn’t pass, no bill will pass.”

Ha’aretz France Condemns Israeli Housing Plans for East Jerusalem The French Foreign Ministry on Monday condemned the approval of Israeli construction of 566 new housing units in Jerusalem beyond Israel's pre-1967 borders, in the Ramat Shlomo, Ramot and Pisgat Ze'ev neighborhoods of the city. "UN Security Council resolution 2334 of December 23, 2016, underscores the illegality of settlements under international law and demands an immediate and complete halt to such activity," the French Foreign Ministry statement said. "Settlements represent a serious threat to the two-state solution, to which the international community reiterated its commitment at the international conference in Paris on January 15. The two-state solution remains the only possibility for a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians," the statement added.See also, “After Trump's Swearing-in, Jerusalem Approves 566 Homes Beyond Green Line” (Ha’aretz)

Ynet News Milchan Picks a Fight with Lawmaker over Corruption affair A legal representative of Israeli-American Billionaire Arnon Milchan warned MK David Amsalem (Likud) Monday that unless he apologizes within 48 for allegations of corruption, he will be facing a law suit. Amsalem grabbed Milchan's attention when he questioned his character and suggested that he may have lied about providing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with hundreds of shekels' worth of illicit gifts. "Who's to say (Milchan) isn't lying? He's a 75-year-old billionaire. What, did Netanyahu put a gun to his head? You can see for yourself that something impure is happening here," said Amsalem on Sunday during an interview with Army Radio. Attorney Boaz Ben Zur issued a letter to Amsalem, stating, "You are hereby required to retract your remarks against Mr. Milchan, and publicly apologize”. See also, “Probe of Netanyahu has Israelis worried” (Washington Post)

Times of Israel Knesset set to release explosive report on 2014 Gaza war Israelis may get a rare open look at the discussions of one of the most powerful and secretive of state institutions, with the Knesset expected to clear for publication a biting comptroller’s report into how the security cabinet handled itself during the war in Gaza in 2014. The report by State Comptroller Yosef Shapira is said to show bitter infighting among security cabinet members, especially then-defense minister Moshe Ya’alon and -economy minister Naftali Bennett over the conduct of the war in Gaza, dubbed Operation Protective Edge. See also, “Bennett: Watchdog's 2014 Gaza War Report Is a Security Earthquake” (Ha’aretz) 3

New York Times– January 22, 2017 Trump Presidency Is Already Altering Israeli-Palestinian Politics By Ian Fisher, deputy executive editor at The New York Times

 Just two days old, the presidency of Donald J. Trump is already reshaping the politics between Israelis and Palestinians, on issues from the location of the American Embassy to possible annexation of a major settlement bloc to whether Palestinians are on the edge of a renewed revolt.  Sunday was a day of intense maneuvering on all sides, with an elation among many Israelis that the rancorous relations with the Obama administration were over — but with questions about just how far or how quickly Mr. Trump would go on moving the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a quandary that has bedeviled American presidents for decades.  Palestinian and Arab leaders girded for the changes that the new administration in Washington might bring. On Sunday, Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, met in Jordan with King Abdullah II, and both leaders repeated their staunch opposition to the embassy move.  The men did not release details of any plans for a coordinated reaction, but both have warned of renewed violence if the move happens. The Palestinian leadership has indicated it would revoke its recognition of Israel, considered the first condition by Israelis for negotiations on a two-state solution — a possibility that seems remote at the moment in any case.  “I hope the American administration will act on two levels: one, to not discuss moving the embassy to Jerusalem, and second, for the administration to lead negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis with the aim of achieving a political settlement,” Mr. Abbas said.  The Israeli news media was filled with speculation on Sunday that the Trump administration would immediately announce the embassy move — as a de facto recognition of Israel’s annexation of predominantly Arab East Jerusalem, which it captured from Jordan during the 1967 war.  On Sunday, Mr. Trump spoke by phone with Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. While Mr. Trump called the talk “very nice,” he did not address the embassy move — a promise repeatedly made but left unmet by American presidential candidates since the 1970s. The White House seemed to seek to stifle speculation of any immediate announcement. “We are at the very beginning stages of even discussing this subject,” Sean Spicer, Mr. Trump’s spokesman, said in a statement.  Mr. Netanyahu called the talk a “very warm conversation” in a statement, but he did not mention the embassy. He said the men discussed peace with the Palestinians and Mr. Netanyahu’s planned visit to Washington in February. Amid the lack of clarity on Mr. Trump’s embassy intentions, Mr. Netanyahu engaged in a day of furious political positioning.  On one hand, he is happy to have someone in the White House seemingly more like-minded on the Palestinian question than Mr. Obama was. But on the other, Mr. Trump’s advisers and

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his designated ambassador, David M. Friedman, a supporter of Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank, are in some ways in closer political step with Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing rivals.  The prime minister is also besieged by what appears to be a series of serious investigations, from whether he improperly accepted gifts like cigars and pink champagne to whether he conspired with a newspaper publisher for more favorable coverage.  As such, Mr. Netanyahu tried to tamp down his rivals by positioning himself both as Mr. Trump’s main interlocutor as well as the champion of Jewish settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.  He declared that he opposed any limits on building in East Jerusalem, a major point of contention between him and the Obama administration. On Sunday, the city announced approval for 566 housing units that had been delayed over Mr. Obama’s objections.  But at the same time, Mr. Netanyahu blocked the initiative of a chief rival, Naftali Bennett, the education secretary and leading voice on the hard right, by persuading him to table proposing a law with potentially explosive consequences: the annexation of Ma’ale Adumim, a settlement of 40,000 people just northeast of Jerusalem. Mr. Bennett agreed to hold off on any such legislation until Mr. Netanyanu meets with Mr. Trump in February.  Ma’ale Adumim is considered by many Israelis now to be a suburb of Jerusalem, and is one of the settlements that Mr. Netanyahu and Middle East experts expect to remain in Israel in any peace deal. But any annexation could ignite major protest among Palestinians and other Arab leaders because of its strategic location, linking the north and south of the West Bank, and as the symbolic start of annexation outside Jerusalem.  Meir Turgeman, the deputy mayor of Jerusalem, said his city had entered a new era, in which American objections to building across the so-called green line of 1967 that divided Jerusalem were in the past.

 “Trump is the one who said the minute he is president there will be no disagreements about building in Jerusalem or about moving the embassy to Jerusalem,” he told Israeli Radio. “I’m just implementing his vision.”

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Yedioth Ahronoth– January 23, 2016 Which Jerusalem will Trump Recognize?

If the new US president recognizes Israel’s sovereignty in the entire city, including the Temple Mount, he will arouse the anger of the entire Muslim world; if he only recognizes west Jerusalem, he will arouse the anger of the evangelical right and the Israeli government. Nevertheless, there is an opportunity here. By Nahum Barnea, senior contributor at Yedioth Ahronoth

 The balls are over; the dazzling dresses have been returned to the fashion houses with due respect; the protestors have returned to their homes, and so have the police. It’s Donald Trump’s first working days as president of the United States. It’s time to raise one of his festive election promises for discussion—the promise to move the US embassy to Jerusalem. Whereas some of his predecessors had promised to do so and did not, Trump promised to keep his promise.  The American administration’s refusal to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is a nearly 70- year-old act of foolishness. It originates in the Partition Plan of 1947, which saw Jerusalem as an international city. The War of Independence erased the partition borders and allowed David Ben-Gurion to move the state’s institutions to west Jerusalem, as befitting its status as a capital. The world grumbled, but eventually adapted: Leaders who visited Israel, including all US presidents and heads of Arab states, came to Jerusalem. They did not, however, recognize Israel’s sovereignty in Jerusalem.  Israel’s governments share the guilt. They spoke pompously about Jerusalem’s importance, but were afraid to go all the way in implementing its status as a capital. Things got complicated in 1967, after Israel annexed the eastern part of the city. An overwhelming majority of the world’s countries formed a complex opinion: Israel’s sovereignty in the western part of the city was recognized de facto, but was not recognized de jure; Israel’s sovereignty in east Jerusalem was recognized neither in practice nor in law. The US ambassador held his meetings in the western part of the city, but was forbidden to visit the eastern part of the city.  When Menachem Begin was prime minister, he decided it was time to implement the sovereignty. He ordered the construction of his bureau in Sheikh Jarrah, in the eastern part of the city. Then he panicked and handed the bureau over to the police minister. It serves the public security minister to this very day.  Prime ministers, from the Left and from the Right, avoided pressing the Americans to recognize Jerusalem. On the eve of the end of his term, I asked US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had ever raised the issue of moving the embassy to Jerusalem in his conversations with the Obama administration. “Not once,” he replied. Netanyahu, like his predecessors, did not want to take responsibility for the burning of embassies in the Muslim world.  The came the election of Trump. Every president seeks to do things differently in the beginning, but Trump wants more. He is aiming for a revolution. The fact that his predecessors 6

avoided recognizing Jerusalem is making him do the opposite. He is raising the banner of Jerusalem: His right hand won’t forget its ability, his tongue won’t cleave to the roof of his mouth.  The question he hasn’t thought about is, which Jerusalem will he recognize. If he recognizes Israel’s sovereignty in all of Jerusalem, including the Temple Mount, he will arouse the anger of the entire Muslim world against America; if he only recognizes west Jerusalem, he will arouse the anger of the evangelical right and the Israeli government.  Nevertheless, there is an opportunity here. There is no better time than the first week of a new president’s term to create change. The world, including the Muslim world, is prepared to accept during this week more than it will be prepared to accept in a month or a year from now. The same applies to Israel’s supporters. Trump can announce that the embassy will be moved to west Jerusalem and leave the east Jerusalem question for the future. It’s problematic in terms of international law, but the problem is reduced compared to much worse legal problems that have emerged since Trump’s election.  An American embassy is not built in one day. It will take at least 10 years. In the meantime, the new ambassador will be able to use the apartment at his service in the southern wing of the David Citadel hotel, raise a large flag over it and call it “the ambassador’s residence.” That will do as a start.  I doubt we will derive any pleasure from the Trump administration later on. Trump’s first comments as president show that he has no intention of changing: The same tongue-lashing, the same lies, the same separatist statements threatening the world’s stability. Britain has Brexit; America has Trumpexit. At this stage, the biggest danger in Trump is not what he does, but the spirit he brings along, what he embodies. His rhetoric legitimizes anti-democratic, racist, fascist trends, both in Europe and here. It’s dangerous. But he can move the embassy.

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