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Enverus LFC Panel Discussion

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Enverus LFC Panel Discussion ENVERUS INTELLIGENCETM | RESEARCH Enverus LFC Panel Discussion Macro & Permian Insights June 2021 Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 1 The Macro Picture Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 2 Key Takeaways ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH $60+ crude prices are a result of OPEC+ supply management & demand improvements (actual and anticipated based on continued COVID vaccine rollout) • Iran deal presents downside pricing risk • Storage is well on the way to normal levels Natural gas prices hover around $3. All eyes are on production, summer weather, and LNG exports The New Mexico Delaware is well-positioned relative to our price expectations and other US basin economics. Source | Enverus Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 3 Global Supply and Demand Outlook ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH With OPEC+ redoubling market management efforts in January 2021 and moving to conscientiously taper production cuts going forward, global inventories are expected to post further draws through the end of the year. However, our expectation for a lifting of US sanctions on Iran may test the resolve of existing OPEC+ participants. The balance below assumes the core OPEC-10 members will step in to balance the market again in 2022. Failure to do so would undoubtedly spur a steep decline in crude oil prices. 110 9,303 10,000 105 8,000 Supply/Demand Supply/Demand Imbalance (MBbl/d) 6,533 100 6,000 95 3,250 4,000 2,900 90 1,432 1,416 1,273 2,000 85 767 966 739 100 195 0 Supply Supply & Demand (MMBbl/d) 80 -241 -251 -570 -487 -438 -535 -650 -653 -1,081 75 -1,450 (2,000) -2,208 70 (4,000) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 2024 avg. 2025 avg. Supply/Demand Imbalance [RHS] Demand Supply 2023 avg. Source | Enverus ProdCast 3.0 (beta), Enverus Intelligence, IEA, OPEC Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 4 OPEC+ Compliance: Jan 2017 – May 2021 ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH 200% 50 191% 160% 45 /d) 143% 148% 147% 143% 130% 139% 132% 130% MMBbl 118% 130% 121% 120% 120% 114% 40 120% 107% 106% 112% 101% 105% 118% 103% 103% 113% 110% 113% 110% 96% 113% 93% 103% 109% 91% 104% 102% 73% 99% 90% 100% 95% 90% 90% 80% 84% 89% 35 Compliance 73% 86% 66% 74% 73% 48% 48% 40% 30 OPEC+ Agreed Quota Level( 25% 0% 25 Jul-21 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Mar-21 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Nov-20 Nov-21 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 May-21 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 Source | IEA Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 5 OPEC: Crude Production ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH Enverus anticipates the Biden administration lifting sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports in Q3 2021, resulting in an increase of 1.5 MMBbl/d of supply from the Islamic Republic by the end of 2022. This will likely test OPEC-10’s resolve, but will nevertheless require additional production cuts in 2022 in order to offset the additional Iranian barrels and avoid another price collapse. OPEC-14 Crude Production Iranian Crude Production 34 4.5 4.0 32 3.5 30 3.0 28 2.5 26 2.0 MMBbl/d MMBbl/d 1.5 24 1.0 22 0.5 20 0.0 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 History Forecast Source | Enverus Intelligence, IEA Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 6 Enverus 5-Year Crude Price Forecast ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH Enverus expects relatively strong prices for the remainder of 2021 before a drop in 2022+ as a result of Iranian production return, US production growth potential, and slower demand growth trends after the rebound. $70.00 $64.20 $60.00 $54.70 $55.00 $55.00 $53.50 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 Henry HubHenry ($/MMBtu) $20.00 $10.00 $0.00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Enverus Forecast Source | Enverus, CME Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 7 Gas Production: 5-Year Outlook ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH Dry Natural Gas Production Natural gas production growth has returned and 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 is expected to continue over the next five years. ∆ Dec. to Dec. +1.63 Bcf/d +2.58 Bcf/d +1.0 Bcf/d +0.77 Bcf/d +0.4 Bcf/d Higher oil prices of course mean lower gas prices can still bring incremental gas production to the market. 100 Dry gas areas in the Marcellus/Utica and Haynesville gas plays are expected to drive the growth in 2021 along with higher associated gas 80 production in the Permian. 60 Bcf/d 40 20 Year HH ($/MMBtu) WTI ($/Bbl) 0 2021 $3.19 $64.2 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 $3.27 $54.7 2020 2023 $3.00 $53.5 Other Williston Anadarko DJ Western Gulf (inc. Eagle Ford) ARK-LA-TX (Inc. Haynesville) 2024+ $3.00 $50.0 Permian Appalachian Source | Enverus ProdCast 3.0 (beta) Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 8 Permian Dry Gas Production vs Takeaway ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH 25 20 15 Bcf/d 10 5 0 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24 Jul-25 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Legacy Capacity GCX Permian Highway Whistler Permian Pass Production Source | Enverus Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 9 LNG Exports ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 Bcf/d 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22 Apr-20 Apr-22 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jan-22 South LA (Sabine, Cameron) MidAtlantic (Cove) South TX (Corpus) Southeast (Elba) Houston (Freeport) Monthly Average Forecast Source | Enverus OptiFlo Gas Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 10 Enverus 5-Year Gas Price Forecast ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH Enverus expects higher prices than those currently trading in the forward market. A price increase starting in 2021 to $3.00/MMBtu is necessary to incentivize production growth to meet expected demand. $3.50 $3.27 $3.19 $3.00 $3.00 $3.00 $3.00 $2.87 $2.74 $2.58 $2.57 $2.59 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 Henry HubHenry ($/MMBtu) $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Enverus Forecast CME (4/27/21) Source | Enverus, CME Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 11 Permian Themes Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 12 NM Delaware Inventory-Weighted Breakeven ~$34/bbl ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH 56% of Sub-$35/bbl Permian Inventory Situated in NM, 55% of Delaware Inventory in NM $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 Cycle Cycle Breakeven @ WTI:HH20:1 ($/bbl) - $10 10 10 Half - PV $0 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 Location Count NM Delaware TX Delaware Midland Source | Enverus Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 13 89% of Federal Leasehold Is Held by Production (HBP) ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH 33% of Leasehold Not HBP Intersects a Permitted, Drilled or Completed Well Source | Enverus, BEG, BLM Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 14 Federal Land Inventory Risk From Potential Ban on Leasing ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH 7% of Delaware Inventory at Risk if Only Currently Producing Leases Are Considered HBP More Severe Case - Considers Only Producing Leases to be HBP 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Remaining Locations 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Federal Unleased Federal Not HBP Federal HBP Non-Federal Source | Enverus, BEG Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 15 Federal Land Inventory Risk From Potential Ban on Leasing ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH 5% of Delaware Inventory at Risk if Leases with Early Activity Signals Are Considered HBP Less Severe Case – Producing, Drilled, Completed and Permitted Leases Considered HBP 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Remaining Locations 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Federal Unleased Federal Not HBP Federal HBP Non-Federal Source | Enverus, BEG Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 16 Texas Storm Uri Production Impact ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH Field Shut-Ins Reduce Production by 223 Mboe/d or 13% in February 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 NM Delaware Production (Mboe/d) 0 Jul-20 Oct-20 Apr-20 Jan-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Feb-20 Mar-20 Jun-20 Mar-21 Sep-20 Dec-20 Nov-20 May-20 Aug-20 Oil (Mbbl/d) NGL (Mbbl/d) Gas (Mboe/d) Source | Enverus Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 17 Permit Activity Shifted to NM Ahead of Election ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH NM Permitting Activity Bounces Back Post Moratorium 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Permits 30% 20% 10% Percent of Monthly Approved Percent ofApproved Monthly 0% NM Delaware TX Delaware Midland 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Permits 30% 20% 10% Percent of Monthly Approved 0% NM Delaware TX Delaware Source | Enverus Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 18 Recent NM Permit Cadence On Pace With Midland ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE™ | RESEARCH Over 50% of Permian-Wide Permits Reside in NM Delaware 900 7,000 Cumulative Approved Permits 800 6,000 700 5,000 600 500 4,000 400 3,000 300 2,000 200 100 1,000 Monthly Approved Monthly Approved Permits 0 0 NM Delaware TX Delaware Midland NM Delaware Cum Permits TX Delaware Cum Permits Midland Cum Permits 1,104 Current Permit Count 3,580 2,103 NM Delaware Midland TX Delaware Source | Enverus Enverus LFC Panel Discussion | Macro & Permian Insights | ENVERUS.COM | 19 60% of Delaware Rig Activity Price Crash OilNM Followingin Activity
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