2010 Victorian State Election Summary of Results
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2010 VICTORIAN STATE ELECTION 27 November 2010 SUMMARY OF RESULTS Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 Legislative Assembly Results Summary of Results.......................................................................................... 3 Detailed Results by District ............................................................................... 8 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Result ........................................................ 24 Regional Summaries....................................................................................... 30 By-elections and Casual Vacancies ................................................................ 34 Legislative Council Results Summary of Results........................................................................................ 35 Incidence of Ticket Voting ............................................................................... 38 Eastern Metropolitan Region .......................................................................... 39 Eastern Victoria Region.................................................................................. 42 Northern Metropolitan Region ........................................................................ 44 Northern Victoria Region ................................................................................ 48 South Eastern Metropolitan Region ............................................................... 51 Southern Metropolitan Region ........................................................................ 53 Western Metropolitan Region ......................................................................... 56 Western Victoria Region................................................................................. 59 Comparison of Assembly and Council Vote by Party and Electorate .............. 62 Changes in Parliamentary Membership .............................................................. 66 Antony Green ABC Election Unit July 2014 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting Member .... 'Ghost' candidate, where party contesting in 2006 was absent in 2010 Party Abbreviations ACP Christian Party ALP Australian Labor Party ASXP Australian Sex Party CA Country Alliance CDP Christian Democrats CEC Citizens Electoral Council DLP Democratic Labor Party FFP Family First GRN Australian Greens IND Independent L/NP Liberal/National (Joint tickets in Legislative Council) LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party OTH Others SA Socialist Alliance Important Dates Dissolution and Issue of Writs 2 November 2010 Close of Rolls 9 November 2010 Close of Nominations 12 November 2010 Election Day 27 November 2010 Return of Writs 18 December 2010 2010 Victorian Election INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the results of the 2010 elections for the Victorian Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council. The election was the second conducted following substantial reform of the Legislative Council. The election resulted in the defeat of the Brumby Labor government, the Coalition led by Ted Baillieu taking office for the first time since 1999. Format for Legislative Assembly Results First preference and two-candidate preferred counts are shown for all electorates as well as change in party support since the 2006 election. The following paragraphs explain the format for the results. First Count: The votes shown for each candidate are the total first preference votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the 2006 election from the percentage received in 2010. Where the parties contesting the district differ from 2006, ghost candidates indicated by "...." have been included representing candidates not contesting the 2010 election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. (See notes below on how preference counts are conducted in Victoria.) Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing a candidate’s two-candidate preferred vote by the the total two-candidate preferred vote for the electorate. Two-candidate preferred swings compare percentages at the 2006 and 2010 elections. 2-Party Preferred: Shown in six electorates, this represents a second count of preferences conducted between candidates representing the Labor and Liberal/National parties. These counts allow the preparation of the state-wide two-party preferred statistics shown on page 24. Summary tables of two party preferred results and swings can be found on page 24, and regional analysis of vote on page 30. Notes on how Preferences are Counted The Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) uses two different methods to conduct preference counts. In electorates where no candidate has 50% of the vote, the VEC undertakes a formal distribution of preference by successively excluding the lowest polling candidate, re-examining their ballot papers and distributing them according to the numbers marked on the ballot paper to candidates remaining in the count. These exclusions continue until one candidate reaches 50%. At the 2010 election there were 44 electorates where the winning candidate achieved 50% on first preference votes and a distribution was not required. In 13 electorates the formal distribution ended with more than two candidates remaining in the count, while in 31 electorates the count had to continue until only two candidates remained. In the 57 electorates where a full distribution of preferences was not completed, the VEC published final preference counts based on indicative preference counts. Based on nominating two final candidates in each electorate before election day, all ballot papers for other candidates were examined to determine which of the two nominated candidates received each ballot paper’s preference. This count was carried out in all polling places and with declaration votes in all electorates, but is not used as the final count in electorates where a full distribution of preferences was undertaken. These two methods mean that there can be discrepancies between the indicative count and formal preference count in electorates where both were conducted. There can also be differences between the preference tallies and the actual tally of first preference votes. These are minor differences are Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 1 2010 Victorian Election reflected in this publication, usually seen as a difference between the total formal vote in an electorate and total two candidate preferred vote. None of these differences are significant. The VEC also undertakes further ballot paper examination in electorates that did not finish as two- party contests between Labor and the Coalition. At the 2010 election, this resulted in additional two- party counts being conducted in six electorates, the four inner-city Labor-Green contests (Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote, Richmond) and two National-Independent contests (Gippsland East, Mildura). In Bendigo West, this publication uses the actual Labor-National preference count rather than the alternative Labor-Liberal indicative preference count. Of the 35 electorates won by the Liberal Party, 23 were with a majority on first preferences and 12 after leading on first preferences. The National Party won eight seats with a majority on first preferences and two more after leading on first preferences. Of the 43 electorates won by Labor, only 13 were won with a majority on first preferences, 20 after leading on first preferences and 10 after trailing on first preferences. Format for Legislative Council Results Results for the Legislative Council are provided in several formats beginning on page 35. Overall totals are provided along with vote share, change in vote and quotas recorded for each region. A more detailed breakdown of first preference votes by candidate is also provided followed by commentary on the preference distributions. A table summarising the incidence of Legislative Council ticket voting by party and region can be found on page 38, and a comparison of votes by party by electorate in the lower and upper house on page 62. By-elections There were four Legislative Assembly by-elections and two legislative Council casual vacancies between 2006 and 2010. Details can be found on page 34. Analysis of swing for the 2010 election is based on comparisons with the 2006 results, not the results of by-elections. Acknowledgments and Disclaimer All results are based on the official statistics published by the Victorian Electoral Commission. All calculations, including analysis of swing and Legislative Council preference distributions are the responsibility of the author. Antony Green ABC Election Analyst July 2014 2 Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 2010 Victorian Election LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY STATE-WIDE TOTALS ROLL 3 582 232 Candi Seats Party dates Won Change Votes % Votes Swing Liberal 79 35 +12 1,203,654 38.03 +3.60 Labor 88 43 -12 1,147,348 36.25 -6.81 Greens 88 .. .. 354,697 11.21 +1.17 The Nationals 15 10 +1 213,492 6.75 +1.58 Independent 75 .. -1 82,395 2.60 +0.32 Family First 69 .. .. 72,354 2.29 -2.00 Country Alliance 29 .. .. 42,938 1.36 +1.36 Democratic Labor Party 36 .. .. 28,176 0.89 +0.89 Australian Sex Party 17 .. .. 17,252 0.55 +0.55 Socialist Alliance 4 .. .. 1,787 0.06 +0.02 Christian Democrats 2 .. .. 636 0.02 +0.02 Citizens