FEDERAL FUNDS Marvin Goodfriend and William Whelpley
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September 18, 2019
September 18, 2019 Overnight Borrowing Liquidity Issues Overnight borrowing rates have spiked unexpectedly this week, raising questions about whether there’s a looming liquidity issue in the market. The NY Fed implemented borderline-emergency measures to inject liquidity this week. It bought $50B in Treasurys yesterday and will buy another $75B today. The basic mechanism is that the Fed will overpay a bank to buy some of its Treasury holdings. This gives the banks cash, which in turn they can lend to other banks. Liquidity. Or as some might call it, Quantitative Easing. Jay Powell won’t call it that, but some might… The headline culprits according to the talking heads I trust the least: 1. Corporate tax bills - money was withdrawn from bank and money market accounts to pay quarterly and annual taxes (Monday was the corporate extension deadline), which reduced the amount available as deposits to banks 2. Last week’s Treasury auction - the cash payment for the $78B T auction was due yesterday and banks typically pay for their Treasurys by borrowing in the overnight market Call me a cynic, but while these may be contributing factors, are they really to blame for a liquidity event that caused some borrowing rates to spike 3x? We were hearing from traders that repo rates got as high as 8% - 10%. Think about it – you are contractually obligated to buy something (or pay for something), you will pay 10% for one night of borrower if you have to, right? How high does the interest rate need to go before you willingly default on whatever it was that required you to go borrow in the first place? Banks don’t borrower the way consumers borrower. -
FOMC Statement
For release at 2 p.m. EDT July 28, 2021 The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses. The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on (more) For release at 2 p.m. -
Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule
July 9, 2014 Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule Overview Changes in inflation enter the Taylor rule in two places. Some Members of Congress, dissatisfied with the Federal First, the nominal neutral rate rises with inflation (in order Reserve’s (Fed’s) conduct of monetary policy, have looked to keep the inflation-adjusted neutral rate constant). Second, for alternatives to the current regime. H.R. 5018 would the goal of maintaining price stability is represented by the trigger congressional and GAO oversight when interest factor 0.5 x (I-IT), which states that the FFR should be 0.5 rates deviated from a Taylor rule. This In Focus provides a percentage points above the inflation-adjusted neutral rate brief description of the Taylor rule and its potential uses. for every percentage point that inflation (I) is above its target (IT), and lowered by the same proportion when What Is a Taylor Rule? inflation is below its target. Unlike the output gap, the Normally, the Fed carries out monetary policy primarily by inflation target can be set at any rate desired. For setting a target for the federal funds rate, the overnight illustration, it is set at 2% inflation here, which is the Fed’s inter-bank lending rate. The Taylor rule was developed by longer-term goal for inflation. economist John Taylor to describe and evaluate the Fed’s interest rate decisions. It is a simple mathematical formula While a specific example has been provided here for that, in the best known version, relates interest rate changes illustrative purposes, a Taylor rule could include other to changes in the inflation rate and the output gap. -
Studies in Applied Economics
SAE./No.128/October 2018 Studies in Applied Economics THE BANK OF FRANCE AND THE GOLD DEPENDENCY: OBSERVATIONS ON THE BANK'S WEEKLY BALANCE SHEETS AND RESERVES, 1898-1940 Robert Yee Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise The Bank of France and the Gold Dependency: Observations on the Bank’s Weekly Balance Sheets and Reserves, 1898-1940 Robert Yee Copyright 2018 by Robert Yee. This work may be reproduced or adapted provided that no fee is charged and the proper credit is given to the original source(s). About the Series The Studies in Applied Economics series is under the general direction of Professor Steve H. Hanke, co-director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise. About the Author Robert Yee ([email protected]) is a Ph.D. student at Princeton University. Abstract A central bank’s weekly balance sheets give insights into the willingness and ability of a monetary authority to act in times of economic crises. In particular, levels of gold, silver, and foreign-currency reserves, both as a nominal figure and as a percentage of global reserves, prove to be useful in examining changes to an institution’s agenda over time. Using several recently compiled datasets, this study contextualizes the Bank’s financial affairs within a historical framework and argues that the Bank’s active monetary policy of reserve accumulation stemmed from contemporary views concerning economic stability and risk mitigation. Les bilans hebdomadaires d’une banque centrale donnent des vues à la volonté et la capacité d’une autorité monétaire d’agir en crise économique. -
Money Market Fund Glossary
MONEY MARKET FUND GLOSSARY 1-day SEC yield: The calculation is similar to the 7-day Yield, only covering a one day time frame. To calculate the 1-day yield, take the net interest income earned by the fund over the prior day and subtract the daily management fee, then divide that amount by the average size of the fund's investments over the prior day, and then multiply by 365. Many market participates can use the 30-day Yield to benchmark money market fund performance over monthly time periods. 7-Day Net Yield: Based on the average net income per share for the seven days ended on the date of calculation, Daily Dividend Factor and the offering price on that date. Also known as the, “SEC Yield.” The 7-day Yield is an industry standard performance benchmark, measuring the performance of money market mutual funds regulated under the SEC’s Rule 2a-7. The calculation is performed as follows: take the net interest income earned by the fund over the last 7 days and subtract 7 days of management fees, then divide that amount by the average size of the fund's investments over the same 7 days, and then multiply by 365/7. Many market participates can use the 7-day Yield to calculate an approximation of interest likely to be earned in a money market fund—take the 7-day Yield, multiply by the amount invested, divide by the number of days in the year, and then multiply by the number of days in question. For example, if an investor has $1,000,000 invested for 30 days at a 7-day Yield of 2%, then: (0.02 x $1,000,000 ) / 365 = $54.79 per day. -
LIBOR Transition: SOFR, So Good Implications of a New Reference Rate for Your Business • 2021
LIBOR transition: SOFR, so good Implications of a new reference rate for your business • 2021 Contents What is LIBOR? 2 What fallback language is currently in place? 16 Why does LIBOR have to go? 4 How will derivative contracts be impacted? 17 Who is driving the process? 5 How will loans and bonds be impacted? 19 How can LIBOR be replaced? 7 How is Wells Fargo contributing? 21 What should I know about SOFR? 9 Where can I get further information? 22 Why are repo transactions so important? 10 Contacts 22 How can SOFR fill LIBOR’s big shoes? 11 What is LIBOR? A brief history of the London Interbank Offered Rate The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) emerged in How is LIBOR set? the 1980s as the fast-growing and increasingly international financial markets demanded aconsistent rate to serve as • 11 – 16 contributor banks submit rates based on a common reference rate for financial contracts. A Greek theoretical borrowing costs banker is credited with arranging the first transaction to • The top 25% and bottom 25% of submissions are be based on the borrowing rates derived from a “set of thrown out reference banks” in 1969.¹ • Remaining rates are averaged together The adoption of LIBOR spread quickly as many market participants saw the value in a common base rate that could underpin and standardize private transactions. At first, the rate was self-regulated, but in 1986, the British 35 LIBOR rates published at 11:00 a.m. London Time Bankers’ Association (BBA), a trade group representing 5 currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF) with the London banks, stepped in to provide some oversight. -
20. the Policy Conundrum of Financial Market Complexity Hilton
20. The Policy Conundrum of Financial Market Complexity Hilton L. Root George Mason University “Your own best footstep may unleash the very cascade that carries you away, and neither you nor anyone else can predict which grain will unleash the tiny or the cataclysmic alteration.” —Stuart Kauffman The Origins of Order: Self-Organization and Selection in Evolution (Kauffman 1993) Abstract: The first global financial sector crash eludes conventional assessments of sector risk. Singling out the usual culprits—the housing bubble, executive pay, regulators, rating agencies, risk models, and global imbalances—fails to explain either the unpredictability or the rapidity of the collapse of 2008, which in many ways resembled the avalanche of a sand pile, where at some point of criticality, avalanches occur that bear no relationship to the grain of sand that triggered them. Since appropriate financial regulation is part of the remedy, policymakers should recognize that success will depend on a more refined knowledge of why some initial events may have prompted an avalanche, while others did not. 1 I. ECONOMICS AND THE SAND PILE A pile of sand. What could be a less likely metaphor for a global financial system that contains close to $200 trillion in assets worldwide? Yet an avalanche in that sand pile caused a colossal financial meltdown that destroyed at least 15 percent of national wealth in the United States alone.1 Which grain of sand triggered the avalanche? We cannot know with certainty where it was or why it moved. Conventional risk models used by economists are poor at predicting which set or category of transactions pushed the markets into a system-wide free fall, and they fail completely at expressing the market in collapse. -
Csl/19-28/Download
CFTC Letter No. 19-28 No-Action December 17, 2019 U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street, NW, Washington, DC 20581 Telephone: (202) 418-5000 Division of Clearing and Risk M. Clark Hutchison III Director Re: Staff No-Action Relief from the Swap Clearing Requirement for Amendments to Legacy Uncleared Swaps to Facilitate Orderly Transition from Inter-Bank Offered Rates to Alternative Risk-Free Rates Ladies and Gentlemen: This letter from the Division of Clearing and Risk (DCR) responds to a November 5, 2019 letter from the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC)1 on behalf of its members that are subject to certain Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC or Commission) regulations.2 Among other things, ARRC requested no-action relief for failure to comply with certain provisions of the swap clearing requirement promulgated pursuant to section 2(h)(1)(A) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and codified in part 50 of Commission regulations when swap counterparties amend certain uncleared swaps as part of an industry-wide initiative to amend swaps that reference certain London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) rates and other interbank offered rates (collectively with LIBOR, the IBORs)3 to reference specified risk-free rates (RFRs). ARRC’s request to DCR focuses on swaps that were executed prior to the compliance date on which swap counterparties were required to begin centrally clearing interest rate swaps (IRS) pursuant to the CFTC’s swap clearing requirement and thus were not required to be 1 Authorities representing U.S. banking regulators and other financial sector members, including the Commission, serve as non-voting ex officio members of the ARRC. -
Recent Monetary Policy in the US
Loyola University Chicago Loyola eCommons School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works Faculty Publications 6-2005 Recent Monetary Policy in the U.S.: Risk Management of Asset Bubbles Anastasios G. Malliaris Loyola University Chicago, [email protected] Marc D. Hayford Loyola University Chicago, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://ecommons.luc.edu/business_facpubs Part of the Business Commons Author Manuscript This is a pre-publication author manuscript of the final, published article. Recommended Citation Malliaris, Anastasios G. and Hayford, Marc D.. Recent Monetary Policy in the U.S.: Risk Management of Asset Bubbles. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 2, 1: 25-39, 2005. Retrieved from Loyola eCommons, School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.jeca.2005.01.002 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Publications at Loyola eCommons. It has been accepted for inclusion in School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works by an authorized administrator of Loyola eCommons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License. © Elsevier B. V. 2005 Recent Monetary Policy in the U.S.: Risk Management of Asset Bubbles Marc D. Hayford Loyola University Chicago A.G. Malliaris1 Loyola University Chicago Abstract: Recently Chairman Greenspan (2003 and 2004) has discussed a risk management approach to the implementation of monetary policy. This paper explores the economic environment of the 1990s and the policy dilemmas the Fed faced given the stock boom from the mid to late 1990s to after the bust in 2000-2001. -
Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long-Term
Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long- Term Yields Daniel L. Thornton Working Paper 2012-036A http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-036.pdf September 2012 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Research Division P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166 ______________________________________________________________________________________ The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long-Term Yields Daniel L. Thornton Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Phone (314) 444-8582 FAX (314) 444-8731 Email Address: [email protected] August 2012 Abstract In February 2005 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan noticed that the 10-year Treasury yields failed to increase despite a 150-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate as a “conundrum.” This paper shows that the connection between the 10-year yield and the federal funds rate was severed in the late 1980s, well in advance of Greenspan’s observation. The paper hypothesize that the change occurred because the Federal Open Market Committee switched from using the federal funds rate as an operating instrument to using it to implement monetary policy and presents evidence from a variety of sources supporting the hypothesis. -
Mark Carney: the Evolution of the International Monetary System
Mark Carney: The evolution of the international monetary system Remarks by Mr Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada, to the Foreign Policy Association, New York, 19 November 2009. * * * In response to the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, policy-makers around the globe are providing unprecedented stimulus to support economic recovery and are pursuing a radical set of reforms to build a more resilient financial system. However, even this heavy agenda may not ensure strong, sustainable, and balanced growth over the medium term. We must also consider whether to reform the basic framework that underpins global commerce: the international monetary system. My purpose this evening is to help focus the current debate. While there were many causes of the crisis, its intensity and scope reflected unprecedented disequilibria. Large and unsustainable current account imbalances across major economic areas were integral to the buildup of vulnerabilities in many asset markets. In recent years, the international monetary system failed to promote timely and orderly economic adjustment. This failure has ample precedents. Over the past century, different international monetary regimes have struggled to adjust to structural changes, including the integration of emerging economies into the global economy. In all cases, systemic countries failed to adapt domestic policies in a manner consistent with the monetary system of the day. As a result, adjustment was delayed, vulnerabilities grew, and the reckoning, when it came, was disruptive for all. Policy-makers must learn these lessons from history. The G-20 commitment to promote strong, sustainable, and balanced growth in global demand – launched two weeks ago in St. -
U.S. Policy in the Bretton Woods Era I
54 I Allan H. Meltzer Allan H. Meltzer is a professor of political economy and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University and is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. This paper; the fifth annual Homer Jones Memorial Lecture, was delivered at Washington University in St. Louis on April 8, 1991. Jeffrey Liang provided assistance in preparing this paper The views expressed in this paper are those of Mr Meltzer and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. U.S. Policy in the Bretton Woods Era I T IS A SPECIAL PLEASURE for me to give world now rely on when they want to know the Homer Jones lecture before this distinguish- what has happened to monetary growth and ed audience, many of them Homer’s friends. the growth of other non-monetary aggregates. 1 am persuaded that the publication and wide I I first met Homer in 1964 when he invited me dissemination of these facts in the 1960s and to give a seminar at the Bank. At the time, I was 1970s did much more to get the monetarist case a visiting professor at the University of Chicago, accepted than we usually recognize. 1 don’t think I on leave from Carnegie-Mellon. Karl Brunner Homer was surprised at that outcome. He be- and I had just completed a study of the Federal lieved in the power of ideas, but he believed Reserve’s monetary policy operations for Con- that ideas were made powerful by their cor- gressman Patman’s House Banking Committee.