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Super Tuesday 2008 Brainroom Briefing Book

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Super Tuesday 2008 Brainroom Briefing Book Super Tuesday 2008 Brainroom Briefing Book Bryan S. Murphy Sr. Political Affairs Specialist Fox News Channel Table of Contents Introduction – p. 3 Delegates Available on Super Tuesday – p. 4 The Republicans – p. 6 The Democrats – p. 8 West Virginia GOP Convention – p. 10 Georgia Primary – p. 14 Alabama Primary – p. 19 Connecticut Primary – p. 24 Delaware Primary – p. 29 Illinois Primary – p. 33 Massachusetts Primary – p. 38 Missouri Primary – p. 42 New Jersey Primary – p. 46 Oklahoma Primary – p. 51 Tennessee Primary – p. 55 Arkansas Primary – p. 60 Arizona Primary – p. 65 Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 70 Kansas DEM Caucuses – p. 74 Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 78 New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary – p. 82 New York Primary – p. 86 Idaho DEM Caucuses – p. 91 North Dakota DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 95 Utah Primary – p. 99 California Primary – p. 103 Montana GOP Caucuses – p. 110 Alaska DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 114 American Samoa DEM Caucuses – 119 2 Introduction This Super Tuesday is the biggest day of presidential primary and caucus voting in U.S. history.1 Twenty-four states hold some delegate selection event on Feb. 5, with 1,681 Democratic delegates and 1,023 Republican delegates to the national presidential nominating conventions up for grabs. A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, and 1,191 to win the Republican nomination. There are Democratic delegate selection events in 22 states and one territory.There are 15 states holding Democratic primaries (not counting New Mexico's party-run primary as a primary, but rather as a caucus) and seven states and one territory holding Democratic caucuses. There are Republican delegate selection events in 21 states. There are 15 states holding Republican primaries, five states holding Republican caucuses and one state a Republican convention. There are delegate selection events in the following states on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Democratic), Illinois, Kansas (Democratic), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana (Republican), New Jersey, New Mexico (Democratic), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (Republican). There is also a caucus in American Samoa (Democratic). Super Tuesday was once thought to be the definitive date on the political calendar, when the nominee in each party would be clearly determined, the picture is far more muddled now by the number of candidates who have staked wins in different places. The sheer number of contests on this day could give the legitimate contenders plenty of opportunities to find a win somewhere and move on. However, a candidate who picks up many victories across the country -- especially in the big states like California and New York -- could be on his or her way to the nomination.2 Strategists must consider not just state-by-state polling, but also the widely varying rules governing each contest. Some states allow independents to vote in partisan primaries; others are closed. Some are caucuses more likely to attract activists; some are primaries where early voting is already under way. 3 A number of candidates have connections to these states: McCain represents Arizona in the Senate, Huckabee is former governor of Arkansas, Obama is from Illinois, Romney is a former governor of Massachusetts and Clinton is from New York.4 3 Delegates Available on Super Tuesday by Last Poll Closing Time Super Tuesday February 5, 2008 Poll Closings ET Delegates West Virginia GOP Convention 11:30 AM R: 18 Georgia Primary 7:00 PM D: 87 R: 72 Alabama Primary 8:00 PM D: 52 R: 45 Connecticut Primary 8:00 PM D: 48 R: 27 Delaware Primary 8:00 PM D: 15 R: 18 Illinois Primary 8:00 PM D: 153 R: 57 Massachusetts Primary 8:00 PM D: 93 R: 40 Missouri Primary 8:00 PM D: 72 R: 58 New Jersey Primary 8:00 PM D: 107 R: 52 Oklahoma Primary 8:00 PM D: 38 R: 38 Tennessee Primary 8:00 PM D: 68 R: 52 Arkansas Primary 8:30 PM D: 35 R: 31 Arizona Primary 9:00 PM D: 56 R: 53 Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses 9:00 PM D: 55 R: 43 Kansas DEM Caucus 9:00 PM D: 32 Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucus 9:00 PM D: 72 R: 38 New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary 9:00 PM D: 26 New York Primary 9:00 PM D: 232 R: 101 North Dakota DEM Caucus 9:00 PM D: 13 Idaho DEM Caucus 10:00 PM D: 18 North Dakota GOP Caucus 10:00 PM R: 23 Utah Primary 10:00 PM D: 23 R: 36 California Primary 11:00 PM D: 370 R: 170 Alaska DEM Caucus 12:00 AM D: 13 Montana GOP Caucus 12:00 AM R: 25 Alaska GOP Party Run Primary 12:30 AM R: 26 American Samoa DEM Caucus D: 3 4 SUPER TUESDAY - February 5, 2008 Delegates Primaries: Dems Reps Alabama Primary 52 45 Arizona Primary 56 53 Arkansas Primary 35 31 California Primary 370 170 Connecticut Primary 48 27 Delaware Primary 15 18 Georgia Primary 87 72 Illinois Primary 153 57 Massachusetts Primary 93 40 Missouri Primary 72 58 New Jersey Primary 107 52 New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary 26 0 New York Primary 232 101 Oklahoma Primary 38 38 Tennessee Primary 68 52 Utah Primary 23 36 Caucuses: Alaska Caucuses 13 26 American Samoa DEM Caucus 3 0 Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses 55 43 Idaho DEM Caucus 18 0 Kansas DEM Caucus 32 0 Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucus 72 38 Montana GOP Caucus 0 25 North Dakota DEM & GOP Caucus 13 23 Conventions West Virginia GOP Convention 0 18 Total Delegates Up for Grabs on 2/5: 1681 1023 Total 2/5 Delegates as % of Total Delegates: 41.52% 42.98% Delegates Needed to Win Nomination: 2025 1191 Total Delegates at Party Conventions: 4049 2380 5 The Republicans McCain seized the momentum and the mantle of Republican front-runner with a victory in Florida that propels him into Super Tuesday's national delegate bonanza. McCain's victory in Florida was a bitter setback for Romney and signaled the end of Giuliani's star-crossed bid for the GOP presidential nomination. Giuliani quit the race and endorse McCain. McCain has predicted that he will lock up the GOP nomination on Super Tuesday, when 21 states hold Republican events. In carrying Florida, McCain showed he could win a primary in which only Republicans were allowed to vote - unlike his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina, which came with the support of independent and crossover voters. The Florida victory marked a stunning turnaround for a campaign that had collapsed last summer amid money and personnel problems. McCain soldiered on, emphasizing national security and fending off criticism from some quarters of the GOP that he was not conservative enough to be the party's standard-bearer. Romney, whose only primary win so far was in Michigan, served notice that he will continue an increasingly bitter fight against the veteran Arizona senator. For Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses, his fourth-place finish in Florida pointed up an inability to reach beyond his base of evangelical Christian voters. He watched the Florida results from Missouri, a Super Tuesday state, where he told supporters he had no intention of quitting.5 For Republicans, many states are winner-take-all, so campaigns must assess if they have a shot. If not, they will skip these states altogether and focus on realistic targets. McCain will spend little time in the South; Huckabee will go virtually nowhere else. 6 Many of the states have winner-take-all rules on the Republican side; in those states, there is no point investing in a state that can't be won. Huckabee plans to concentrate in Alabama, Georgia and his home state of Arkansas. The campaign also hopes to be competitive in neighboring Missouri, particularly the conservative southern, rural part of the state. McCain plans to focus on California, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. He also will make an effort in Illinois. Romney is still working through his options, but with Giuliani out he might have a shot at northeastern states including New York and New Jersey. He is also analyzing states where the winner of each congressional district picks up Republican delegates, and was considering making a play for some in Georgia, Alabama and California, regardless of whether he can win the entire state, one of his strategists said.7 Giuliani's decision to throw his support to McCain was a powerful assist, even though the former New York mayor and one-time Republican favorite never caught on with large numbers of primary voters. His support is concentrated among moderate Republican voters, who now are expected to shift largely to McCain. That could be particularly important in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, which hold primaries Tuesday. Taken together, the tri-state area represents the largest chunk of delegates one candidate could realistically expect to win next week. McCain already leads in polling in those states, and his Florida victory amplifies his chances for a sweep. Republicans in California said that Giuliani had built an effective campaign organization in the state, with the ability to reach voters by phone and get them out on election day. By turning that 6 machinery over to McCain, he'll fill a gap created by the senator's decision to abandon campaign activities in this state and many others last year after his candidacy nearly collapsed. McCain is still scrambling to raise new money to compete against Romney, who has the ability to provide his campaign with needed funds, merely by writing a check from his own considerable bank account.
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