Super Tuesday 2008 Brainroom Briefing Book
Bryan S. Murphy Sr. Political Affairs Specialist Fox News Channel
Table of Contents
Introduction – p. 3 Delegates Available on Super Tuesday – p. 4 The Republicans – p. 6 The Democrats – p. 8 West Virginia GOP Convention – p. 10 Georgia Primary – p. 14 Alabama Primary – p. 19 Connecticut Primary – p. 24 Delaware Primary – p. 29 Illinois Primary – p. 33 Massachusetts Primary – p. 38 Missouri Primary – p. 42 New Jersey Primary – p. 46 Oklahoma Primary – p. 51 Tennessee Primary – p. 55 Arkansas Primary – p. 60 Arizona Primary – p. 65 Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 70 Kansas DEM Caucuses – p. 74 Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 78 New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary – p. 82 New York Primary – p. 86 Idaho DEM Caucuses – p. 91 North Dakota DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 95 Utah Primary – p. 99 California Primary – p. 103 Montana GOP Caucuses – p. 110 Alaska DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 114 American Samoa DEM Caucuses – 119
2 Introduction This Super Tuesday is the biggest day of presidential primary and caucus voting in U.S. history.1
Twenty-four states hold some delegate selection event on Feb. 5, with 1,681 Democratic delegates and 1,023 Republican delegates to the national presidential nominating conventions up for grabs. A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, and 1,191 to win the Republican nomination.
There are Democratic delegate selection events in 22 states and one territory.There are 15 states holding Democratic primaries (not counting New Mexico's party-run primary as a primary, but rather as a caucus) and seven states and one territory holding Democratic caucuses.
There are Republican delegate selection events in 21 states. There are 15 states holding Republican primaries, five states holding Republican caucuses and one state a Republican convention.
There are delegate selection events in the following states on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Democratic), Illinois, Kansas (Democratic), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana (Republican), New Jersey, New Mexico (Democratic), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (Republican). There is also a caucus in American Samoa (Democratic).
Super Tuesday was once thought to be the definitive date on the political calendar, when the nominee in each party would be clearly determined, the picture is far more muddled now by the number of candidates who have staked wins in different places.
The sheer number of contests on this day could give the legitimate contenders plenty of opportunities to find a win somewhere and move on. However, a candidate who picks up many victories across the country -- especially in the big states like California and New York -- could be on his or her way to the nomination.2
Strategists must consider not just state-by-state polling, but also the widely varying rules governing each contest. Some states allow independents to vote in partisan primaries; others are closed. Some are caucuses more likely to attract activists; some are primaries where early voting is already under way. 3
A number of candidates have connections to these states: McCain represents Arizona in the Senate, Huckabee is former governor of Arkansas, Obama is from Illinois, Romney is a former governor of Massachusetts and Clinton is from New York.4
3
Delegates Available on Super Tuesday by Last Poll Closing Time Super Tuesday February 5, 2008 Poll Closings ET Delegates West Virginia GOP Convention 11:30 AM R: 18 Georgia Primary 7:00 PM D: 87 R: 72 Alabama Primary 8:00 PM D: 52 R: 45 Connecticut Primary 8:00 PM D: 48 R: 27 Delaware Primary 8:00 PM D: 15 R: 18 Illinois Primary 8:00 PM D: 153 R: 57 Massachusetts Primary 8:00 PM D: 93 R: 40 Missouri Primary 8:00 PM D: 72 R: 58 New Jersey Primary 8:00 PM D: 107 R: 52 Oklahoma Primary 8:00 PM D: 38 R: 38 Tennessee Primary 8:00 PM D: 68 R: 52 Arkansas Primary 8:30 PM D: 35 R: 31 Arizona Primary 9:00 PM D: 56 R: 53 Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses 9:00 PM D: 55 R: 43 Kansas DEM Caucus 9:00 PM D: 32 Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucus 9:00 PM D: 72 R: 38 New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary 9:00 PM D: 26 New York Primary 9:00 PM D: 232 R: 101 North Dakota DEM Caucus 9:00 PM D: 13 Idaho DEM Caucus 10:00 PM D: 18 North Dakota GOP Caucus 10:00 PM R: 23 Utah Primary 10:00 PM D: 23 R: 36 California Primary 11:00 PM D: 370 R: 170 Alaska DEM Caucus 12:00 AM D: 13 Montana GOP Caucus 12:00 AM R: 25 Alaska GOP Party Run Primary 12:30 AM R: 26 American Samoa DEM Caucus D: 3
4
SUPER TUESDAY - February 5, 2008 Delegates Primaries: Dems Reps Alabama Primary 52 45 Arizona Primary 56 53 Arkansas Primary 35 31 California Primary 370 170 Connecticut Primary 48 27 Delaware Primary 15 18 Georgia Primary 87 72 Illinois Primary 153 57 Massachusetts Primary 93 40 Missouri Primary 72 58 New Jersey Primary 107 52 New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary 26 0 New York Primary 232 101 Oklahoma Primary 38 38 Tennessee Primary 68 52 Utah Primary 23 36 Caucuses: Alaska Caucuses 13 26 American Samoa DEM Caucus 3 0 Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses 55 43 Idaho DEM Caucus 18 0 Kansas DEM Caucus 32 0 Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucus 72 38 Montana GOP Caucus 0 25 North Dakota DEM & GOP Caucus 13 23 Conventions West Virginia GOP Convention 0 18 Total Delegates Up for Grabs on 2/5: 1681 1023 Total 2/5 Delegates as % of Total Delegates: 41.52% 42.98% Delegates Needed to Win Nomination: 2025 1191 Total Delegates at Party Conventions: 4049 2380
5 The Republicans McCain seized the momentum and the mantle of Republican front-runner with a victory in Florida that propels him into Super Tuesday's national delegate bonanza. McCain's victory in Florida was a bitter setback for Romney and signaled the end of Giuliani's star-crossed bid for the GOP presidential nomination. Giuliani quit the race and endorse McCain.
McCain has predicted that he will lock up the GOP nomination on Super Tuesday, when 21 states hold Republican events. In carrying Florida, McCain showed he could win a primary in which only Republicans were allowed to vote - unlike his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina, which came with the support of independent and crossover voters.
The Florida victory marked a stunning turnaround for a campaign that had collapsed last summer amid money and personnel problems. McCain soldiered on, emphasizing national security and fending off criticism from some quarters of the GOP that he was not conservative enough to be the party's standard-bearer.
Romney, whose only primary win so far was in Michigan, served notice that he will continue an increasingly bitter fight against the veteran Arizona senator.
For Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses, his fourth-place finish in Florida pointed up an inability to reach beyond his base of evangelical Christian voters. He watched the Florida results from Missouri, a Super Tuesday state, where he told supporters he had no intention of quitting.5
For Republicans, many states are winner-take-all, so campaigns must assess if they have a shot. If not, they will skip these states altogether and focus on realistic targets. McCain will spend little time in the South; Huckabee will go virtually nowhere else. 6
Many of the states have winner-take-all rules on the Republican side; in those states, there is no point investing in a state that can't be won.
Huckabee plans to concentrate in Alabama, Georgia and his home state of Arkansas. The campaign also hopes to be competitive in neighboring Missouri, particularly the conservative southern, rural part of the state.
McCain plans to focus on California, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. He also will make an effort in Illinois.
Romney is still working through his options, but with Giuliani out he might have a shot at northeastern states including New York and New Jersey. He is also analyzing states where the winner of each congressional district picks up Republican delegates, and was considering making a play for some in Georgia, Alabama and California, regardless of whether he can win the entire state, one of his strategists said.7
Giuliani's decision to throw his support to McCain was a powerful assist, even though the former New York mayor and one-time Republican favorite never caught on with large numbers of primary voters. His support is concentrated among moderate Republican voters, who now are expected to shift largely to McCain.
That could be particularly important in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, which hold primaries Tuesday. Taken together, the tri-state area represents the largest chunk of delegates one candidate could realistically expect to win next week. McCain already leads in polling in those states, and his Florida victory amplifies his chances for a sweep.
Republicans in California said that Giuliani had built an effective campaign organization in the state, with the ability to reach voters by phone and get them out on election day. By turning that
6 machinery over to McCain, he'll fill a gap created by the senator's decision to abandon campaign activities in this state and many others last year after his candidacy nearly collapsed.
McCain is still scrambling to raise new money to compete against Romney, who has the ability to provide his campaign with needed funds, merely by writing a check from his own considerable bank account. Romney faces serious difficulties in trying to keep McCain from pulling away, in spite of his advantage in campaign funds. He has outspent McCain in every state but has won only one major contest, in his native Michigan.
Romney is also hurt by the continued presence in the race of Huckabee, who ranks third in delegates and is no longer a serious contender for the nomination, according to Republican insiders. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister, is still popular with many religious and social conservatives. His continued presence in the race attracts votes that otherwise would largely go to Romney, especially in Southern and Southwestern primaries and rural districts of states as diverse as California, Illinois, Minnesota and Missouri.
The fourth man in the Republican race, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, has failed to make a mark in primaries and caucuses, despite raising large amounts of money from his dedicated cadre of supporters.8
7 The Democrats Clinton won the Democratic vote in Florida, winning bragging rights but no delegates. National Democratic Party officials stripped the delegates in a squabble with the state over moving the primary date earlier than party rules allow.
Clinton hopes her Florida victory will lessen the media attention given to Obama’s strong victory in South Carolina and the endorsements he received from members of the Kennedy clan.9
Edwards has abandoned his White House run leaving the Democrats with a two-person field of major candidates. Edwards hadn't even made his departure from the Democratic presidential race official when his soon-to-be former rivals were already making plays for his supporters.
The effect of Edwards leaving the race is difficult to assess. One thing is clear: It sets the Democratic Party on a path for a historic nominee, with either the first woman or the first African- American at the top of the ticket.
As the two remaining candidates began the courtship of Edwards, it was far from clear what the natural lines of attraction would be for those voters newly without their candidate. Exit polling from the four early primaries offers mixed signs. Voters friendly to Edwards share some demographic similarities to Clinton backers, but they also bear resemblance to Obama's supporters -- along with an affinity for the anti-establishment, outsider rhetoric like his.10
In the Democratic field, Clinton has the advantage when only registered party voters are allowed in. Obama, with an extensive field organization, is expected to do well in caucuses.11
The sheer size of the Feb. 5 challenge could favor Clinton. She is still better known than Obama and holds a lead in national polls. Obama won or came in a close second in four early states where he had extensive field operations and spent weeks campaigning -- an option not as available to him now as he is forced to bounce among nearly two-dozen far-flung contests.
But with a sizable bank account and lots of attention from his win in South Carolina, Obama is prepared to go toe-to-toe with Clinton. And he benefits from party rules that award delegates according to the share of the votes each candidate receives. There is no winner-take-all on Feb. 5, and that means he could still win a substantial share of delegates even if Clinton wins most of the states.12
In Democratic contests, most delegates are awarded proportionate to the vote by congressional district. Some districts have an even number of delegates, meaning the two major candidates are likely to divide the spoils no matter what; but in others, there is an odd number, meaning an investment in voter phone calls and mailings could yield one extra delegate.
The Super Tuesday map features states large and small that rarely play an important role in presidential politics. That includes the megaprizes of California and New York, both too Democratic to matter in a general election and usually too late to matter in a primary. But the campaign is also reaching tiny quarters like Delaware and Idaho.
On the night of Feb. 5, the winners are likely to be reported by state. The statewide vote totals are important, even in the Democratic race, given that 35% of the party's delegates are awarded based on those results. But the rest of the Democratic delegates are awarded by congressional district, meaning there will be microcontests even in states where one or another candidate is far ahead.
Each district typically has three to five delegates to award. A candidate needs at least 15% of the vote in the district to get any delegates. So in a race where only Clinton and Obama meet that threshold, they are likely to divide the delegates evenly if there are an even number of delegates available. That makes the districts with an odd number of delegates the most valuable, because
8 the winner will automatically get an extra. Campaign strategists are also looking to see where it might be possible to win 59% of the vote; a victory that large gets a candidate an extra delegate even in a district with an even number.
Clinton campaign officials expect they may lose Colorado and Minnesota, but they have identified districts in each state where they might pick up extra delegates. It’s been said that Obama doesn't expect to win California, but he is running ads in the San Francisco area hoping to pick up delegates in those congressional districts.13
9 West Virginia Republican Party Convention – Latest Poll Closing 11:30 AM ET
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates WEST Closed 18 statewide delegates at the VIRGINIA GOP 2/5 convention. (Another 9 convention delegates will be awarded in the 5/13 primary). District- level are allocated by winner- take-all by CD in the 5/13 primary. Statewide delegates go to the majority winner of the 2/5 convention.
West Virginia The West Virginia GOP State Convention starts at 9:00 AM ET, but the first roll call of the counties won’t start until approximately 11:30 AM ET, with 55 counties at one minute each the first round of voting should be completed at 12:30 PM ET.
Additional rounds may be necessary. If no one gets a majority on the first ballot there will be a one-hour recess and a second round of voting will commence probably finishing at about 1:30 PM ET. Another one-hour recess and then a third round of voting could follow and a result is expected by then.
Delegates to the state convention will select which candidate will receive 18 of West Virginia's 30 delegate seats at the national convention. The rest will be picked during the May 13 state primary election.
About 344,000 of the state's 1.1 million registered voters are Republicans.14
West Virginia History In 1984, Mondale easily won the nonbinding popular vote in West Virginia's Democratic Presidential primary. Also in the Republican primary, Reagan defeated Harold Stassen, a former Governor of Minnesota who has been a candidate eight times for his party's Presidential nomination.15
In 1988, Dukakis won a sweeping victory over the Rev. Jackson in West Virginia. Dukakis won West Virginia by a vote ratio of more than 5 to 1.16
In 1992, both Clinton and Bush won their primaries with more than 70 percent of the vote. Patrick J. Buchanan reached 20 percent in only three West Virginia counties, two in the industrial northern panhandle that is sandwiched between Pennsylvania and Ohio.17
In 1996, Dole and Clinton won easy victories in West Virginia.
In 2000, Bush and Gore easily won in West Virginia's primary election. Bush had 80 percent of the Republican vote, while Gore had 72 percent of the Democrats' vote.18
For 2008, West Virginia Republicans will hold a party convention on February 5, when so many other states will be voting; it is expected to be over early in the afternoon, so West Virginia will have the first of the day’s results.19
10 WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 99,994 (81%) Buchanan (R) 18,067 (15%) Other 6,096 (5%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 227,815 (74%) Brown (D) 36,505 (12%) Tsongas (D) 21,271 (7%) Other 15,349 (5%) Kerrey (D) 3,152 (1%) Harkin (D) 2,774 (1%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 87,534 (69%) Buchanan (R) 20,928 (16%) Forbes (R) 6,222 (5%) Keyes (R) 4,822 (4%) Alexander (R) 3,773 (3%) Other 3,093 (2%) Lugar (R) 1,082 (1%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 257,087 (87%) La Rouche (D) 40,034 (14%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 87,050 (80%) McCain (R) 14,121 (13%) Keyes (R) 5,210 (5%) Forbes (R) 1,733 (2%) Other 1,290 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 182,403 (72%) Bradley (D) 46,710 (18%) Other 19,374 (8%) LaRouche (D) 4,823 (2%)
11
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 175,065 (69%) Edwards (D) 33,950 (13%) Lieberman (D) 13,881 (5%) Dean (D) 10,576 (4%) Clark (D) 9,170 (4%) Other 10,197 (4%)
Profile of West Virginia West Virginia, which holds its Republican caucus on Feb. 5, has a 2007 population of 1.8 million including a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites, a lower percentage of blacks, and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. The state’s Democratic primary is on May 13.
About 57 percent of West Virginia’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, lower than the national rate of 64 percent.
Selected Characteristics West Virginia U.S. Women 51.0% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 94.1% 66.4% Black alone 3.3% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 0.9% 14.8% Median household income $35,059 $48,451 Foreign born 1.2% 12.5% Persons below poverty 17.3% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 16.5% 27.0% Median home value $89,700 $185,20020
West Virginia for more than half a century was one of the most Democratic states, deserting the national ticket only in Republican landslide years (1956, 1972, 1984) until George W. Bush carried it in 2000; its legislature has been controlled by Democrats since 1930.
Most West Virginia voters continue to identify as Democrats, but Bush's 2004 victory raises the question of whether West Virginia is going to follow other mountain states like Kentucky and Tennessee and become predominantly Republican.
Bush's support of coal and his opposition to gun control enabled him to carry West Virginia 52%- 46%--a stunning upset in a state that hadn't voted for a Republican in an open presidential race since 1928.21
West Virginians have a strong attachment to this unique state, where the accent sounds Southern and the early 20th century factories and houses look Northern, where the landscape is rural and the economy industrial.22
West Virginia has been gaining between 1,000 and 3,000 residents a year since 2001, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. The West Virginia 2008 Economic Outlook predicts population losses in younger age groups and population gains in older age groups over the next five years.23
West Virginia is the largest coal-producing State in the Appalachian Region and the second- largest in the U.S.24
12
West Virginia in the last 24 years as a state, like the nation, has shifted from a goods-producing economy to a service economy. 130,200 West Virginians are employed in goods-producing businesses, while the mining sector employs only 27,200. The number of manufacturing jobs has declined to 59,500 and some industries, such as glass and steel, have almost disappeared.25
West Virginia has the country's highest rate of heart disease among adults, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.26
13 Georgia Primary – Latest Poll Closing 7:00 PM ET
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates GEORGIA Open Registered 87 in the primary 72 in the primary primary voters may 57 district level 39 district level participate in 30 statewide 30 statewide either primary. 3 RNC members 16 super-delegates Total: 72 Total: 103 Pledged district level Pledged district level delegates are winner-take- delegates are allocated all by CD. Pledged according to the primary statewide delegates are vote in each CD, with a 15% winner-take-all by statewide threshold. Pledged statewide vote. delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.
Georgia Huckabee leads in the state. The former Baptist preacher and Southern governor is limping along, short on cash and victories. But he views Georgia as the perfect state for him to make a comeback -- or at least cause waves in the race.
He rallied fellow evangelical Christians in Iowa to win and hopes to do so again here. For him, it seems, the race has become less about winning the nomination and more about solidifying himself as a fresh-faced leader.
The state awards delegates by congressional district; thus, Romney -- who has the endorsements of three congressmen -- may try to pick off districts that could be easiest to win.
McCain won't ignore the state, but it's not a priority. 27
The biggest prize among the Southern states will be Georgia, where blacks could make up more than 40% of the Democratic primary vote, and 87 delegates are at stake. Obama has been endorsed by Atlanta's black mayor, Shirley Franklin, and recent polls show he has an edge over Clinton in the state. 28
Obama strategists have expressed confidence in their chances in Georgia and Alabama. Both are deep South states with large black populations like South Carolina, where he had a commanding victory delivered by black voters. But Edwards' exit could complicate matters, perhaps putting some of those states' white votes up for grabs.29
Georgia History Georgia’s first presidential primaries were conducted in 1976.30
Georgia’s presidential primary comes early in the cycle and has been of some importance.
In 1992 Governor Zell Miller had it scheduled one week before Super Tuesday in order to help Clinton, and it did: Clinton won solidly to balance losses in Maryland and Colorado the same day.
14 In 1996 and 2000, Georgia was of little importance except as a measure of turnout: Democratic turnout fell from 622,000 in 1988 to 284,000 in 2000, while Republican turnout rose from 400,000 to 643,000.31
In the 2000 presidential primary, black voters cast 48 percent of the Democratic ballots.32
In the March 2, 2004, primary Democratic turnout zoomed to 627,000, as there was no Republican contest. John Edwards visited Georgia five times after the Iowa caucuses and John Kerry only once, but Kerry beat Edwards 47%-41%. Edwards carried white voters and won 101 of the 159 counties, but Kerry carried black voters and carried Atlanta's Fulton County and the two other majority-black counties in the Atlanta metro area by 47,000 votes—more than his 33,000- vote statewide plurality. Edwards’s loss here made it plain that he had no chance to win the nomination and would be hard pressed to win other Southern states, and he withdrew from the race.33
Muscogee County was the bellwether county in the state. In the 29 statewide Democratic primaries or runoffs from 1996 through 2006, Muscogee County Democrats voted for the winner 28 times, the best record of any county in Georgia, according to an analysis of election results by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That includes every state, U.S. Senate and presidential primary.34
Georgia's presidential primary will be Feb. 5, 2008, nearly a month earlier than in the past. The Peach State will join the rush of other states staking out earlier primary dates in hopes of attracting candidates and visibility.35
For Republicans, the state is important for Mike Huckabee. He’s a Southerner, and he need Georgia's delegates. Georgia's Republicans hold the third-highest pool of GOP delegates in all the contests through Super Tuesday.36
Massachusetts has changed the date of its primaries from March to Feb. 5th. This could give the state a bigger role in the national campaign. For a long time, Massachusetts primaries have mattered very little. They have seldom, if ever been decisive contests in the big scheme of things. The state Republican Party said GOP voters in the Bay State are more energized than they have been in years. 37
GEORGIA PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 291,905 (64%) Buchanan (R) 162,085 (36%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 259,907 (57%) Tsongas (D) 109,148 (24%) Brown (D) 36,808 (8%) Kerrey (D) 22,033 (5%) Uncommitted 17,256 (4%) Harkin (D) 9,479 (2%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 226,732 (41%) Buchanan (R) 162,627 (29%)
15 Alexander (R) 75,855 (14%) Forbes (R) 71,276 (13%) Other 22,577 (4%) Keyes (R) 17,538 (3%) Other 5,039 (1%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 430,480 (67%) McCain (R) 179,046 (28%) Keyes (R) 29,640 (5%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 238,396 (84%) Bradley (D) 46,035 (16%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 293,225 (47%) Edwards (D) 259,361 (41%) Sharpton (D) 39,123 (6%) Dean (D) 11,320 (2%) Kucinich (D) 7,699 (1%) Other 16,110 (3%)
Profile of Georgia About 57 percent of Georgia’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, below the national rate of 64 percent.
Georgia’s 2007 population of 9.5 million includes a higher percentage of the black and non- Hispanic white-alone populations and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. Georgia's population grew 16.6 percent between 2000 and 2007; the nation grew 7.2 percent during that same period.
Selected Characteristics Georgia U.S. Population change: 2000-2007 16.6% 7.2% Median age 34.6 36.4 Women 50.8% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 58.9% 66.4% Black alone 29.9% 12.8% Hispanic 7.5% 14.8% Median household income $46,832 $48,451 Foreign born 9.2% 12.5% Persons below poverty 14.7% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 26.6% 27.0% Median home value $156,800 $185,20038
Minorities accounted for slightly more than half of the 42,000 Georgians who registered to vote in the week before the deadline for the Feb. 5, 2008 presidential primary. Since 2001, four times as
16 many African-Americans and other minorities have been added to the state's voter rolls than whites, according to an analysis of state election records.
In 2001, white voters accounted for 72 percent of the electorate. Today they make up 66 percent of Georgia's voting population. African Americans, ethnic Asians, Latinos and others make up the remaining 34 percent.39 Women make up more than 52 percent of Georgia registered voters.40
Georgia voters are worried about the drought's effect on the economy and their quality of life, and they want government to respond by requiring conservation and limiting development.41
Georgia and Atlanta have been one of the great boom areas of America over the last dozen years. From 1990 to 2006, Georgia’s population grew by 45%, the fifth highest rate of population growth among states.
The state has more blacks than any other state except New York and Texas, and will surpass them soon if present trends continue. Jimmy Carter, a one-term state senator, was elected governor in 1970 with a rural base as well as conspicuous black support. Carter became one of the first politicians from the rural South to celebrate and honor the civil rights revolution and in the process set himself on the road to being elected president in 1976.
Demographic change and economic change in Georgia have been followed by political change, to the point that this once heavily Democratic state now seems to be solidly Republican. The Republican trend continued in 2006, as most other states trended Democratic. The new Republican majorities passed the nation’s toughest law on illegal immigrants, requiring employers to consult a federal database when hiring, welfare recipients to prove their legal status and jailers to inform federal authorities of illegal inmates. They cut income, corporate and property taxes. In 2006, Georgia became one of just 10 states with a Republican governor and legislature.42
Georgia is the largest of the U.S. states east of the Mississippi River and by many years the youngest of the 13 former English colonies. Atlanta has long been the economic and cultural center of the Southeast. For most of the 19th century Georgia was the capital of the cotton empire of the South, but poultry products now account for many times the income from cotton.43
An economic downturn was triggered partly by a housing slump that has caused a steep decline in new home construction, which has in turn dampened consumer spending. State tax collections in December alone plunged 8.8 percent from the same month the year before. State fiscal economist Kenneth Heaghney predicted the slump, a growing unemployment rate and declining growth in tax receipts, could mean a recession for Georgia.
Thanks to Delta Airlines, say Georgia lawmakers, Atlanta boasts the world's busiest airport, Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International.44
Virtually every part of the Atlanta metro area has been significantly touched by foreclosures. Thousands of properties facing foreclosure involve mortgages of $300,000 or more, according to the data compiled by Equity Depot. Even in upscale Alpharetta, hundreds of properties have been scheduled for sale on the courthouse steps.45
In 2005, state legislators made it a crime to commit mortgage fraud, for which Georgia was ranked No. 1 in the U.S. from 2002 until 2005, according to the Mortgage Asset Research Institute. Following the changes, Georgia fell to No. 5 in one year.46
Forsyth County made Forbes' list of the country's wealthiest counties, ranking No. 13 in the nation in median annual income. Forsyth is listed with a median income of $83,682, which is $33,000 higher than neighboring Fulton County.47
17 Georgia has had one of the fastest-growing populations of illegal immigrants in the country, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Between 2000 and 2006, the state added an average of about 45,000 illegal immigrants each year. Homeland Security estimated Georgia's population of illegal immigrants at 490,000 as of January 2006.48
Georgia's school systems are the first in the nation to offer publicly funded Bible classes after lawmakers passed a bill allowing the courses in 2006.49
18 Alabama Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates ALABAMA Open Registered 52 in the primary 45 in the primary primary voters are 34 district level 21 district level eligible to 18 statewide 24 statewide participate in either primary. 8 unpledged super-delegates 3 unpledged RNC member delegates Total: 60 Total: 48 Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to CD Pledged district-level primary vote, with a 15% delegates are winner-take-all threshold. Pledged statewide by CD. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated delegates are winner-take-all. proportionally to the state vote, with a 15% threshold.
Alabama Huckabee is concentrating on a few Southern states including Alabama.50
On his way to winning South Carolina, Obama drew support from about 80% of African American voters, exit polls showed. That leaves him positioned to do well Feb. 5 in states such as Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, which have large populations of African American Democrats. 51
Obama and Huckabee have recently visited Alabama. McCain plans a rally in Birmingham on Saturday. Bill Clinton scheduled a return trip to the state on Saturday to campaign for his wife, Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Alabama's voter registrations have surged with the approach of the primary Tuesday and are much higher than they were in the last two presidential primaries. That surge and a flurry of visits by candidates have Alabama's chief election official, Secretary of State Beth Chapman, predicting a higher-than-normal turnout of 31 percent to 33 percent.
In the three months leading up to Tuesday's primary, 58,341 new voters have registered. That compares to 43,702 in the three months leading up to the 2004 primary and 36,898 for the 2000 primary.
Going into Tuesday's election, Alabama has 2.56 million registered voters.52
Alabama History Athens State University professor Jess Brown says that prior to the 1930s the few blacks who could vote in Alabama were overwhelmingly Republican, identifying the party with Abraham Lincoln and the eventual abolition of slavery.53
Times have changed since then and in Alabama, as in the rest of the nation, black voters now trend heavily toward the Democrats. Traditionally, blacks make up 40% or more of the Democratic primary vote in Alabama.54
In 1984 and 1988, Alabama held its presidential primary on the second Tuesday in March. In 1984, Alabama got a flood of candidates, with Alabama becoming the first state to go for
19 Democrat Walter Mondale in a big way. On the Republican side, Ronald Reagan had a cake walk.55
In the 1984 Democratic Primary, outside Birmingham, blacks voted for Jesse Jackson by a margin of more than 3 to 1. In Birmingham, where the black turnout was twice as high as it was in the rest of the state, blacks voted 2 to 1 for Walter. Mondale. Mondale won the state with 35% of the vote.56 Running against Mondale -- and Jackson -- in the 1984 Alabama primary, Gary Hart actually won 0 percent of the black vote.57
In 1988, several other Southern states moved their primary to the same day as Alabama to create "Super Tuesday." Most of the candidates concentrated on more populous states. Jesse Jackson and George Bush won Alabama's 1988primary.58
Blacks were 43% of the Democratic vote in the 1988 presidential primary, but in 1992 blacks were 25% of the electorate in Alabama.59
In the June 1996 primary, Republican Bob Dole paid one visit to Alabama and Democrat Bill Clinton made none.60 Both still easily won their respective primaries.
In 2000, Gore won 77 percent against his nearest rival uncommitted, uncommitted won 17 percent. Lyndon LaRouche was in the race as well winning 6%.
In 2000, Bush defeated Alan Keyes 84% to 12%.
In 2004, Alabama's presidential primary was so late in the primary season that it had no national impact, but it did allow President George Bush and Sen. John Kerry to add to their delegate counts.
In the 2004 Republican primary, voters had the choice of Bush or uncommitted.In the Democratic primary, voters could chose between Kerry, Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, perennial candidate Lyndon LaRouche and uncommitted.61
In 2004, only two states -- Montana and New Jersey -- had primaries on dates later than Alabama's.62
Alabama will hold its 2008 primary on Feb. 5, four months earlier than the 2004 date. Legislators moved the election last year after dozens of other states pushed forward their primaries or caucuses, fearful Alabama's role on the national scene would be diminished if voters went to the polls again in June.63
The number of delegates up for grabs in Alabama is dwarfed by states such as New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey, and is small even compared with sister Southern states such as Georgia and Tennessee. However, Alabama politicians in both parties insist their races are so tight that results here will matter a lot.64
ALABAMA PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 122,703 (74%) Uncommitted 29,830 (18%) Buchanan (R) 12,588 (8%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary
20 Clinton (D) 307,621 (68%) Uncommitted 90,863 (20%) Brown (D) 30,626 (7%) Other 21,789 (5%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 160,097 (76%) Buchanan (R) 33,409 (16%) Other 11,073 (5%) Keyes (R) 7,354 (4%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 243,588 (81%) Uncommitted 45,764 (15%) LaRouche (D) 12,686 (4%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 171,077 (84%) Keyes (R) 23,394 (12%) Uncommitted 8,608 (4%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 214,541 (77%) Uncommitted 48,521 (17%) LaRouche (D) 15,465 (6%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 164,021 (75%) Uncommitted 38,223 (17%) Kucinich (D) 9,076 (4%) Other 7,254 (3%)
Profile of Alabama About 63 percent of Alabama’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, not significantly different from the national rate of 64 percent.
Alabama’s 2007 population of 4.6 million includes a percentage of the black population that is more than double the national average and a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
Selected Characteristics Alabama U.S. Median age 37.1 36.4 Women 51.5% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 69.0% 66.4% Black alone 26.3% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 2.5% 14.8%
21 Median household income $38,783 $48,451 Foreign born 2.8% 12.5% Persons below poverty 16.6% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 21.1% 27.0% Median home value $107,000 $185,20065
State politics in Alabama remains competitive. On one side of this political conflict are the Democrats: Their voting base is Alabama's large black minority and the institutional base is the state's well organized teachers' unions and trial lawyers.
On the other side are the Republicans: Their voting base is white evangelical Protestants and their institutional base is small businessmen and the affluent young families filling the fast- growing suburban areas outside Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile and Huntsville--groups that are fractious and not well organized.66
However, Democrats haven’t seen much success in presidential elections in Alabama. Democrats last carried Alabama in a presidential general election in 1976.67
Recently, the leading organization of black Democrats in Alabama, the Alabama Democratic Conference, unanimously endorsed Hillary Clinton. Blacks make up 26 percent of Alabama's population -- and an even larger percentage of the state's Democratic voters.68
In the 1950s and '60s, Alabama was the site of such landmark civil-rights actions as the bus boycott in Montgomery (1955–56) and the “Freedom March” from Selma to Montgomery (1965).69
In 2003, Alabama Court of the Judiciary unanimously ordered Roy Moore removed from office as chief justice, over his refusal to remove a Ten Commandments display from the Alabama Judicial Building.70
Hispanics are a growing part of Alabama's population, but they make up less than 1 percent of the state's voters. The Census Bureau says that Alabama has more than 100,000 Hispanics among its 4.5 million residents.
According to the secretary of state's office, Alabama's has nearly 2.7 million registered voters, with whites making up nearly 2 million of that number. Alabama has more than 675,000 black voters, and 7,187 Hispanic voters, or 0.3 percent. 71
A 2005 survey listed Alabama as the state with the highest percentage of residents who identify themselves as born-again Christians.72 At the polls in the 2004 election, about four of every 10 Alabama voters described themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians.73
Today paper, chemicals, rubber and plastics, apparel and textiles, primary metals, and automobile manufacturing constitute the leading industries of Alabama. Continuing as a major manufacturer of coal, iron, and steel, Birmingham is also noted for its world-renowned medical center.74 The coming of Hyundai, along with its supplier plants, and the staying put of an Maxwell- Gunter Air Force computer service also have helped to keep the local economy healthy.75
Gov. Bob Riley says textile jobs that were once the backbone of Alabama's economy have moved to other nations and have been replaced by auto, steel, biotechology and space-related jobs.76
Per capita income growth in Alabama from 2002-2006 surpassed the national growth rate and all other Southern states.77 Alabama’s per capita income grew 23.1 percent during that time, ahead of Virginia, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky and
22 Mississippi.78 Alabama workers saw their average weekly earnings increase 4.7% in 2006, the fastest growth rate in five years.79 From 2004 to 2006, the number of people in poverty in Alabama decreased from 762,000 to 650,000.80
Of all of the states in the Union, Alabama ranks at the bottom in state and local taxes paid per person in fiscal 2005, according to statistics recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau.81
Alabama is one of the least costly states in which to do business, but the state's cost is creeping up as it attracts more business development. A study by the Milken Institute shows Alabama ranks No. 39 in business costs with an 85.8 index. That means that 38 states have a higher cost of doing business, and running a business in Alabama costs about 86 percent of the national average.82
Alabama’s climate and land is ideally suited for raising cattle. Cattle are produced in every county and cattle production represents a $3 billion industry in Alabama. Cattle producers sold over $469 million worth of cattle and calves in 2007.83
Alabama has 540,000 people -- or about one out of every eight citizens -- who receive food stamps, which are already exempt from state and local sales taxes.84 In Alabama, 4.77 residents per 1,000 file for bankruptcy on an annual basis compared with the national average of 2.52 per 1,000.85
The cost of housing in Alabama is about 38 percent less than the national average and the state has some of the lowest property taxes in the country.86 Alabama is the only state with an income tax threshold for a family of four below $10,000.87
The Centers for Disease Control reports more than 65 percent of Alabama residents are either overweight or obese.88
23 Connecticut Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates CONNECTICUT Closed Only 48 in the primary 27 in the primary primary registered 31 district level 15 district level party 17 statewide 12 statewide members can vote in their 12 super-delegates 3 RNC members own party's primary. Total: 60 Total: 30
Pledged district-level Pledged delegates (district- delegates are allocated level and statewide) are according to the primary winner-take-all by statewide vote in each CD, with a 15% vote. threshold. Statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.
Connecticut Super Tuesday is a particular challenge for Obama, who trails Clinton in most national polls. Three of the biggest states voting -- New York, New Jersey and Connecticut -- are in Clinton's backyard.89
Clinton, a senator from neighboring New York who already spoke to more than 1,000 people in Hartford earlier this week, had a big lead over Obama in a University of Connecticut poll last week, but more recent polls show the state is a battleground.90
Sen. Dodd is expected to remain neutral in Connecticut's Democratic presidential primary. Dodd, D-Conn., dropped his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination after a poor finish in the Iowa caucuses in early January.
Obama and Clinton will campaign in Connecticut Monday.91
McCain could do well as moderate Northeastern states like Connecticut. 92 Connecticut's other senator, Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., has endorsed McCain in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. McCain will be at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield on Sunday.93
State officials say thousands of newly registered Connecticut voters could push turnout in Tuesday's primary to record levels.
More than 24,600 new voters have registered since Nov. 1, Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz said. There are more than 11,000 newly registered Democrats and more than 4,600 Republicans. Nearly 9,000 new voters are unaffiliated and have until Monday to choose a party if they want to vote in a primary.94
Connecticut History Connecticut’s presidential primary, though held fairly early in the process, has not been quite early enough and has made little difference.
Many winners of the state’s primary have fared no better than the Federalists Connecticut favored in 1816.95
24
Connecticut has gained recognition for supporting the underdog in Democratic primaries, leading to quirky outcomes that went against the national trend. U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts defeated then-President Carter in the 1980 primary, while Sen. Gary Hart defeated eventual nominee Walter Mondale in 1984. Former California Gov. Jerry Brown won Connecticut's primary in 1992 over eventual nominee Bill Clinton, and even Sen. Paul Tsongas had a strong showing in his next-door state despite having withdrawn from the race.96
In 1995, Connecticut moved its primary to coincide with primaries in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maine and Vermont. Proponents hoped that more candidates would visit if the northeastern states were lumped together.97 The state didn’t see enough new interest to satisfy its political appetites.
Connecticut’s Democratic primary has never produced a president: Al Gore and John Kerry won in 2000 and 2004 but were not elected.
In 2000 voter turnout for the Republican presidential primary was 40.8%. Voter turnout for the 2004 Democratic presidential primary totaled 20.8%.98
In 2004, Kerry, a next-door neighbor with high name recognition, pulled ahead of runner-up John Edwards in a sleepy primary that got overshadowed nationally by the attention given to New York, California and other large states on Super Tuesday. With no television advertising or appearances by the major Democratic candidates in Connecticut, many voters were unaware of the low-profile primary, prompting a low turnout.
Connecticut's native son, U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of New Haven, who dropped out of the race last month, came in third with 5 percent of the vote.99
2008 will be the 8th presidential election cycle since Connecticut's Presidential primary law was passed by the General Assembly in 1977 that replaced local party primaries with a statewide primary.
Nine Republicans and eight Democrats will appear on the ballot in Connecticut when primary voters go to the polls on February 5; even though many of those candidates aren’t still in the race. That's the largest number since Connecticut began holding statewide presidential primaries in 1980.100
Connecticut's presidential primary had been on the first Tuesday in March since 1995.101 Now the state is hoping to have a greater impact on the nomination process by joining the flood of states on Feb. 5.
While Connecticut was once an afterthought for most presidential contenders, it could get more attention from the candidates this year after moving up its primary to Super Tuesday. Connecticut had been at risk of becoming irrelevant in the nominating process because other states were choosing earlier primary dates. Because Connecticut had Chris Dodd and so many other states moved their primaries forward (like neighboring New York), Connecticut decided to follow the trend this year. The primary has moved from its previous date the first Tuesday in March. 102
Yale University political science professor Donald Green said Connecticut is not a costly state to compete in because there are fewer media markets in which candidates must advertise. This makes it a good bargain state. Connecticut has become a big donor state for the candidates.
In December, former child star-turned-movie director Ron Howard hosted a fundraiser for Clinton at his Greenwich home. The event capped off a busy year of fundraisers in lower Fairfield County, which also received visits from Obama, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.103
25 CONNECTICUT PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 66,356 (67%) Buchanan (R) 21,815 (22%) Uncommitted 9,008 (9%) Duke (R) 2,294 (2%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Brown (D) 64,472 (37%) Clinton (D) 61698 (36%) Tsongas (D) 33,811 (20%) Uncommitted 5,430 (3%) Other 4,620 (3%) Harkin (D) 1,919 (1%) Kerrey (D) 1,169 (1%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 70,998 (54%) Forbes (R) 26,253 (20%) Buchanan (R) 19,664 (15%) Alexander (R) 6,985 (5%) Other 2,814 (2%) Keyes (R) 2,209 (2%) Lugar (R) 1,495 (1%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary McCain (R) 87,176 (49%) Bush (R) 82,881 (46%) Keyes (R) 5,913 (3%) Other 1,773 (1%) Forbes (R) 1,242 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 99,312 (55%) Bradley (D) 73,589 (42%) Other 5,400 (3%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 75,860 (58%) Edwards (D) 30,844 (24%) Lieberman (D) 6,705 (5%) Dean (D) 5,166 (4%) Kucinich (D) 4,133 (3%) Other 7,315 (6%)
26
Profile of Connecticut Connecticut had a 2007 population of 3.5 million. Colorado has a higher percentage of non- Hispanic whites and a higher percentage of college graduates than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 63 percent of Connecticut’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, which was comparable to the national figure of 64 percent.
Selected Characteristics Connecticut U.S. Population change: 2000-2007 2.8% 7.2% Median age 39.0 36.4 Women 51.3% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 74.8% 66.4% Black alone 10.2% 12.8% Hispanic 11.2% 14.8% Median household income $63,422 $48,451 Foreign born 12.9% 12.5% Persons below poverty 8.3% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 33.7% 27.0% Median home value $298,900 $185,200104
On balance Connecticut these days is mostly a Democratic state. It has two Democratic senators, though Lieberman, triumphant over Lamont in November, calls himself an Independent Democrat. High-income voters have trended toward the Democrats on cultural issues.
The state whose ban on contraceptives produced the Supreme Court’s Griswold decision in 1965, the precursor of Roe v. Wade, is now solidly for abortion rights, and its legislature passed a law in 2005 legalizing civil unions for same-sex couples. Perhaps in reaction, there has been a smaller countervailing move by some blue-collar workers and Catholics toward the Republicans.105
A poll shows CT Democrats split about evenly over whether electing the first woman or the first African-American would be the most "historic" event.106
In Connecticut, far more women have held public office than blacks. Connecticut has seen two women governors, six congresswomen and 18 women in statewide office, while there have been no African American governors, one black congressman and five black statewide officeholders. Women make up slightly more than half the state's population; African Americans comprise about 10 percent.107
It was one of the original 13 states and is one of the six New England states. Connecticut is located in the northeastern corner of the country. In area it is the third smallest U.S. state, but it ranks among the most densely populated.108
Connecticut is by many measures the nation’s highest-income state and quite likely the wealthiest. Connecticut ranks second in new patents per capita, and a Milken Institute study ranked Connecticut number three among states in its ability to excel in the information economy.109
Connecticut is now the home of such world-wide organizations as Xerox, G.E., Uniroyal, G.T.E., Olin, Champion International, and Union Carbide. Among its better-known corporate industries, however are its insurance companies.
27
Connecticut began to earn its reputation as the Insurance State more than 180 years ago. Marine insurance, the great grandfather of all modern forms of insurance, had its start in Connecticut with coverage for ships and cargoes which sailed from the state’s ocean and river ports to the Caribbean. Fire insurance got its formal start in 1794; other types - life, accident, casualty, health - followed over the next century. There are 106 insurance companies based in Connecticut.
While agriculture no longer holds its once-prominent position in Connecticut’s economy, farming is still important to the state. The most important crops are dairy, poultry, forest and nursery, tobacco, vegetables and fruit.110
According to the ACS, Connecticut retained its position as the wealthiest state in the union, with a median family income of $78,154. Connecticut ranked third in the measure of household income, at $63,422.111
Mortgage defaults and foreclosures in Connecticut's cities have skyrocketed over the past year, as homeowners buckle under the weight of rising costs associated with subprime and predatory loans, a real estate tracking company has found.112
People of European descent now constitute about three-fourths of Connecticut's total population, while African Americans and Hispanics each comprise nearly one-tenth. Asians and small numbers of Native Americans and Pacific Islanders make up most of the remainder. More than half of the state's population is Roman Catholic. Protestants, Orthodox, and other Christians and a small proportion of Jews make up the other half.113
Most Connecticut residents today are descendants of Catholic immigrants who arrived here between 1840 and 1924. There has been an influx of immigrants from Mexico, Peru, the Dominican Republic and other parts of Latin America, who fill jobs others let go begging; Hispanics are now the state’s largest minority group.114
When it comes to reading levels, the gaps between black or Hispanic and white students in Connecticut are the widest in the nation. Statewide, there are 12,834 third-graders at or below basic levels on the reading portion of the Connecticut Mastery Test—enough to fill 178 school buses.115
Connecticut is renowned for its many private schools and colleges. Yale University (1701), an Ivy League school, is regarded as one of the world's great universities; other private institutions, such as Wesleyan University (1831) in Middletown, also have national recognition. The United States Coast Guard Academy is located at New London.116
28 Delaware Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates DELAWARE Closed Only 15 in the primary 18 in the primary primary registered 10 district level 3 district level party 5 statewide 12 statewide members may 3 RNC members vote in their 8 super-delegates own party's Total: 18 primary. Total: 23 Pledged delegates (district- Pledged delegates (district- level and statewide) are level and statewide) are winner-take-all according to allocated according to the statewide vote. statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.
Delaware McCain could do well as moderate Northeastern states like Delaware. 117
Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner has endorsed Clinton in the Democratic presidential primary.118
Delaware History Before 1992, Delaware did not host primary campaigns. Instead, state parties elected delegates to attend the national conventions.119
Delaware passed a law in 1992 to establish presidential primaries in the state. The first vote was in 1996, following that of New Hampshire by four days. 120
In 1996 Delaware vied for attention by holding its presidential primary February 24, just four days after New Hampshire. But New Hampshire Republicans put pressure on candidates to ignore Delaware, and only Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes showed up here.121
Bob Dole ignored Delaware in 1996, allowing Forbes to take the state and its 12 delegates.122
For 2000 Republicans decided to hold a primary on February 9, nine days after New Hampshire. George W. Bush, who spent two full days in Delaware, led with 51%, well ahead of John McCain (25%) and the still-remembered Forbes (20%).
The 2000 Democratic primary, held February 5, was outside the Democrats’ rules and neither candidate campaigned, and only 11,000 voters turned out; Al Gore led Bill Bradley 57%-40%.123
State lawmakers raised Delaware's political profile in 2003 when they moved the presidential primary from the Saturday after New Hampshire's primary to the first Tuesday in February. Before the law was changed, state-run presidential contests in Delaware amounted to nonbinding "beauty contests." That's because national party rules prevent another state from holding a binding primary earlier than a week after New Hampshire's vote.124
In 2004, Delaware scheduled its primary one week after New Hampshire, on February 3, but it was only one of several states voting that day. Joseph Lieberman, endorsed by Senator Tom Carper, Lieutenant Governor John Carney and Treasurer Jack Markell, paid several trips to Delaware. Other candidates were scarcer. John Kerry won the primary with 50% of the vote;
29 Lieberman ran second with 11%, in what amounted to a tie with John Edwards, Howard Dean and Wesley Clark.125
DELWARE PRIMARY RESULTS
No Presidential Primaries in DE in 1992.
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Forbes (R) 10,709 (33%) Dole (R) 8,909 (27%) Buchanan (R) 6,118 (19%) Alexander (R) 4,375 (13%) Keyes (R) 1,729 (5%) Lugar (R) 717 (2%) Other 216 (1%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 9,694 (90%) LaRouche (D) 1,046 (10%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 15,250 (51%) McCain (R) 7,638 (25%) Forbes (R) 5,883 (20%) Keyes (R) 1,148 (4%) Other 141 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 6,377 (57%) Bradley (D) 4,476 (40%) LaRouche (D) 288 (3%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 16,787 (50%) Lieberman (D) 3,706 (11%) Edwards (D) 3,674 (11%) Dean (D) 3,462 (10%) Clark (D) 3,165 (10%) Other 2,497 (8%)
Profile of Delaware Delaware is the nation’s 10th fastest-growing state. Its 2007 population of about 865,000 grew by 10.4 percent between 2000 and 2007. The U.S. population grew by 7.2 percent during that same period.
Delaware has a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites, a higher percentage of blacks and a higher median household income than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
30 About 66 percent of Delaware’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, which was slightly higher than the national figure of 64 percent.
Selected Characteristics Delaware U.S. Population change: 2000-2007 10.4% 7.2% Median age 37.5 36.4 Women 51.5% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 69.0% 66.4% Black alone 20.9% 12.8% Hispanic 6.3% 14.8% Median household income $52,833 $48,451 Foreign born 8.1% 12.5% Persons below poverty 11.1% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 27.0% 27.0% Median home value $227,100 $185,200126
Nicknamed "The First State," Delaware was the first state to ratify the Constitution. Delaware is the second smallest state in area, and the sixth smallest in population. Through most of its history, Delaware has been unusually affluent.
Delaware’s considerable variety has produced a robust two-party politics in which tiny Delaware has often voted like the nation as a whole. But in the 1990s Delaware, like so many of America’s largest metro areas, trended toward the Democrats. In 2000 Al Gore carried the state 55%-42% and in 2004 John Kerry carried it 53%-46%.127
The Democratic and Republican parties have been fairly evenly matched in Delaware, although the Democrats generally have the larger number of registered voters. Many voters decline to list party preference, and numerous swing votes may go to either side. Primaries had little significance until 1978, when they were first used for all elective offices.
More than two-thirds of the state's population is white, one-fifth African American, and the remainder Native American, Hispanic, and Asian.
About two-thirds of Delaware's population lives in New Castle County. Wilmington, the largest city, is situated in the area where the Brandywine, Christina, and Delaware rivers come together. The suburbs of Wilmington, including the smaller cities of Newark and New Castle, account for the largest share of the state's population.
Over the years Delaware has been called the chemical capital, the corporate capital, and the credit-card capital of the United States. Its liberal incorporation laws and a Court of Chancery that specializes in the most-complex issues of corporate governance and finance have encouraged many American and foreign businesses to make Delaware their nominal home.128
Delaware is the preferred legal home to big business. Sixty-one percent of the country's Fortune 500 companies are incorporated in Delaware. Half of the companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq have their legal home here. More than 70 percent of initial public stock offerings on U.S. exchanges last year were by companies incorporated in Delaware. This activity fuels a thriving legal industry in the state, including a community of major law firms and support services. In addition, it provides the state with taxes, fees and other income that represents about one-third of Delaware's $3.3 billion in annual revenue.129
31 The State has never had a general sales tax or an inventory tax. There are no State real property taxes, and the local real property taxes are very low. The total State and local tax burden in Delaware is competitive with most other states.130
The number of home sales is down significantly from the peak two years ago, homes are sitting longer on the market, and foreclosures, fueled by rising interest rates on subprime mortgages, are climbing.131 Foreclosure filings in Delaware increased by almost 30 percent between 2006 and 2007 to 20 percent higher than the previous record set in 2003.132
Big job losses at Bank of America and potential cuts at Chrysler and General Motors plants add to the feeling of unease, even though unemployment is at a low 3.8 percent. Delaware's auto manufacturing sector took a hit in 2007 when Chrysler split from Daimler AG and announced its Newark plant would close in 2009. Bank of America had quietly shed about 3,000 jobs after absorbing credit card giant MBNA Corp. in 2006, once the state's largest employer.
The credit card industry employs 15,498 people in Delaware, and was a bright spot for the banking industry in 2007. But experts say it could suffer in 2008, when foreclosures are expected to peak and a spike in bankruptcy filings could drive up credit card defaults.
Health care employment, however, has been booming even as the state loses jobs in other sectors. Christiana Care recently announced it will add as many as 600 jobs in the next five years as part of a $205 million expansion of Wilmington Hospital. Health care accounts for 41,700 jobs in the state, according to Moody's.133
32 Illinois Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates ILLINOIS Open Registered 153 in the primary 57 in the primary primary voters can 100 district level 57 district level participate in 53 statewide 0 statewide either primary. 32 super-delegates Total: 57
Total: 185 Pledged district-level delegates face a direct election of Pledged district-level delegates delegates pledged to a are allocated according to the particular candidate. primary vote in each CD, with a Unpledged statewide delegates 15% threshold. Pledged are chosen by the state statewide delegates are convention. (Results of the allocated according to the primary vote do not affect this statewide vote, with a 15% allocation). threshold.
Illinois Obama is expected to do well in his home state. But Clinton, a Chicago native, is competing actively for delegates here. 134
The state is up for grabs on the Republican side.
McCain has an edge in recent polls, but Romney has some semblance of a campaign to build upon. Romney's Midwestern roots -- he was born and raised in Michigan -- could help him.
Both plan to spend time in Illinois in the coming days, primarily to raise money in Chicago.
The Chicago suburbs and the city itself may be more amenable to McCain, while the rural, more conservative southern swath of the state could lean toward Romney. Huckabee could peel votes away from him should Christian evangelicals in the south turn out.
Delegates are won congressional district by congressional district. 135
Illinois Primary History The first early presidential primary in Illinois was in 1972, after the General Assembly moved the date to March from June. In 1972 and in 1976, the state's centralized Democratic and Republican Party organizations dictated which presidential hopefuls partisans would support and who would attend party conventions as delegates. That practice backfired on Mayor Richard J. Daley in 1972 when the Democratic National Convention delegation he was leading to Miami was ousted in a party rules fight.136
Illinois clinched the nominations for Republican victors Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George Bush in 1988, and Democratic victors Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1992.137
In the 1984 Illinois presidential primary, Chicago Mayor Harold Washington outmaneuvered Jesse Jackson by fielding a favorite-son delegate slate, which included some Jackson supporters, in the city's three black-majority congressional districts. At a time when Jackson was threatening a possible floor fight over party rules at the Democratic National Convention,
33 Washington was calling for party unity. But Jackson embarrassed Washington by pressuring Walter Mondale into breaking off negotiations for the Chicago mayor's endorsement. At the convention, however, Washington's delegates wound up voting for Jackson, mostly because of constituency politics.138
In 1988 the Democratic nomination would probably have been clinched here for Michael Dukakis, except for the dominance of two Illinois candidates, Paul Simon and Jesse Jackson.139
In 1992, with former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas standing by during a one-hour TV debate in Chicago, Brown launched a harsh, personal attack on the Democratic front-runner Bill Clinton, citing a Washington Post story published Sunday that raised questions about the relationship between the state of Arkansas and the law firm of which Hillary Clinton is a partner. Clinton ardently defended his wife's integrity, and he charged that Brown's attack was driven by electoral desperation and poll results. The confrontation came as the three Democrats met for the last time before the presidential primaries in Illinois and Michigan.140
In 1992, Illinois played a major role in Bill Clinton's quest for the Democratic nomination. After winning several smaller states and his native South, Clinton's win in a state seen as a microcosm of the nation proved his viability for the general election.141
George W. Bush and Al Gore won the presidential primaries in Illinois in 2000. McCain appeared on the ballot although he is no longer running for president. On the Democratic side, Gore won an easy victory over Bradley, who had also dropped from the race.142
In the 2004 Illinois Democratic primary, John Kerry received 72% of the vote.143
In 1999, Gov. George Ryan said after meeting with the Republican State Central Committee at the Hilton Springfield that he'd like to see regional primaries or a one-day national primary instead of the state-by-state progression that now exists. "It's over by the time they get to Illinois," Ryan said of presidential contests. "Why do we even have a primary?"144
In January 2007 Speaker Michael Madigan proposed moving the primary to February 5, to help Illinois’s Barack Obama; the bill was signed into law in June 2007.145
ILLINOIS PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 634,588 (76%) Buchanan (R) 186,915 (23%) Other 9,637 (1%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 776,829 (52%) Tsongas (D) 387,891 (26%) Brown (D) 220,346 (15%) Uncommitted 67,612 (5%) Harkin (D) 30,710 (2%) Kerry (D) 10,916 (1%) Other 9,826 (1%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 532,467 (65%)
34 Buchanan (R) 186,177 (23%) Forbes (R) 39,906 (5%) Keyes (R) 30,052 (4%) Alexander 12,585 (2%) Other 8,891 (1%) Lugar 8,286 (1%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinto (D) 770,001 (96%) Other 16,051 (2%) LaRouche (D) 14,624 (2%)
March 7, 2000 Democratic Caucus Gore (D) (63%) Bradley (D) (33%) Other (4%)
March 7, 2000 Republican Caucus Bush (R) %) Keyes (R) 0%) McCain (R) (%) Forbes (R) (0%) Other (0%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 496,646 (67%) McCain (R) 158,768 (22%) Keyes (R) 66,066 (9%) Forbes (R) 10,334 (1%) Other 5,068 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 682,932 (84%) Bradley (D) 115,320 (14%) Other 11,415 (1%)
February 24, 2004 Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (54%) Edwards (D) (22%) Dean (D) (11%) Kucinich (D) (5%) Clark (D) (0%) Other (7%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary
35 Kerry (D) 873,230 (72%) Edwards (D) 131,966 (11%) Braun (D) 53,249 (4%) Dean (D) 47,343 (4%) Sharpton (D) 36,123 (3%) Other 75,604 (6%)
Profile of Illinois About 66 percent of Illinois’ voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, slightly above the national rate of 64 percent.
Illinois’ 2007 population of 12.9 million includes a higher median household income and median home value than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
Selected Characteristics Illinois U.S. Median age 35.7 36.4 Women 50.8% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 65.3% 66.4% Black alone 15.0% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 14.7% 14.8% Median household income $52,006 $48,451 Foreign born 13.8% 12.5% Persons below poverty 12.3% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 28.9% 27.0% Median home value $200,200 $185,200146
The name "Illinois" comes from a Native American word meaning "tribe of superior men."
It became a state on December 3, 1818 and was the 21st state to enter the Union.
When Illinois became a state in 1818, it had a population of 34,620 people. Illinois is now the sixth most populous state in the country with almost 11.5 million people.147
Chicago’s nickname, "The Windy City," dates back to the earliest days of Illinois' statehood. The phrase was coined by politicians from the downstate capital, Springfield, who became impatient with the long speeches from the Chicago contingent.
These politicians referred to them as "windbags" from "the windy city." It is just a coincidence that Chicago sometimes has windy weather.148
Illinois is the most average state, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from the Census Bureau. Its racial composition matches the nation's better than any other state. Education levels are similar, as is the mix of industry and the percentage of immigrants. Incomes in Illinois are a little higher and the state is more urban than the rest of the nation. But the age of the population is very close to the country's mix of minors, seniors and those 18 to 64.149
The number of blacks in Cook County, Ill., as of July 1, 2006 was 1.4 million. Cook led all the nation’s counties in the number of people of this racial category.150
36 Illinois has population characteristics similar to those of the country as a whole: cities continue to lose whites to suburban areas, while both the number and proportion of African Americans and Latinos within the larger cities have increased.
Because of its great length, Illinois exhibits qualities characteristic of both the Northern and Southern regions of the United States; although its northern portion touches the Upper Midwest, its southern point is actually farther south than Richmond, Va., and has great affinities with neighboring Kentucky and Missouri. Further contrasts derive from the racial and ethnic complexity of the population.
Politically, Illinois has tended to be a “swing state,” its votes often mirroring fluctuating social tensions that underlie the growing, but unevenly distributed, economic prosperity.151
It is one of the top-ranking states in total exports, playing a crucial role in the nation’s economy. It leads the nation in soybean and corn production and is also a top producer of hogs, cattle, sheep, and poultry. Its main mining products are soft coal and petroleum. The state has a large and diverse manufacturing sector including steel stock, agricultural machinery, diesel engines, trains and train equipment, and machine tools.152
37 Massachusetts Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates MASS. Semi- Registered 93 in the primary 40 in the primary open party members 61 district level 30 district level primary can only vote 32 statewide 10 statewide in their own party's 28 super-delegates 3 RNC members primary, but independents Total: 121 Total: 43 may vote in either contest. Pledged district-level delegates Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to the are allocated proportionally, primary vote in each CD with a with a 15% threshold. 15% threshold. Pledged Statewide delegates are statewide delegates are allocated according to the allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% statewide vote, with a 15% threshold. threshold.
Massachusetts Polls show Clinton in a strong position here, but Obama has the support of Gov. Deval Patrick, the nation's only black governor, as well as Sens. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry. Kennedy and Kerry are helping organize the state for Obama and will campaign for him in other Feb. 5 states.
The Obama campaign points out that Massachusetts, like New Jersey, allows independent voters to participate in the primary, a characteristic they believe favors his campaign.153
Massachusetts, Romney’s home state, should be an easy state for Romney. 154
McCain might seek a knockout blow in Romney's home state of Massachusetts, where McCain plans to campaign this weekend and aides see a chance of a victory.155
Massachusetts Primary History In Massachusetts primaries, Republican voters have backed eight of the last ten eventual nominees; Democratic voters have backed only five of the last ten eventual nominees.
The first Massachusetts presidential primary was held in 1912. The emphasis has shifted from selecting delegates not pledged to particular candidates, to a popular vote with delegates apportioned on the result.156
In 1960, when native son John F. Kennedy was in the running, turnout was only 9.2 percent of those eligible, but that year candidates' names were not printed on the ballot.
1976 brought a very low turnout when only 32.2 percent of eligible voters voted in a snowstorm.157 President Gerald R. Ford beat Ronald Reagan here but Sen. Henry Jackson of Washington won on the Democratic side. Jimmy Carter, the party's nominee, was fourth.158
In 1980, Massachusetts voters went against the tide in both primaries. Republicans backed Bush over Illinois Rep. John B. Anderson and Reagan, the party's nominee. Meanwhile, Edward M. Kennedy, the state's senior senator, beat President Carter, who ultimately turned back Kennedy's challenge.
38 In 1984, President Reagan won on the Republican side, but Democrats in Massachusetts were a bump in the road to nomination for former vice president Walter F. Mondale. Colorado Sen. Gary Hart upset Mondale in Massachusetts.159
Both Bush and former Gov. Michael S. Dukakis won 57 percent of the Bay State's vote in their respective 1988 primaries.160
In 1992, former Sen. Paul E. Tsongas won in his home state. President Bush gathered 69 percent to Buchanan's 29 percent.161
In 1996, the state's Republicans were in the mainstream with Sen. Bob Dole. With Dole going on to win his party’s nomination and President Clinton moving easily toward reelection, Massachusetts presidential primary voters backed both November finalists for only the second time in 20 years.162
In 2000, Massachusetts voted solidly for Al Gore and John McCain, as many independents reregistered as Republicans.163
In 2004, Massachusetts voters served up a lopsided victory for favorite political son John Kerry in the state's Democratic presidential primary, one of a string of key Super Tuesday victories that put him on a most-certain path toward the nomination.
Kerry won with 72% of the vote, followed by Edwards with 18%, while the rest of the field, including some candidates who had already dropped out but whose names remained on the ballot, trailed well behind in the single digits.164
MASSACHUSETTS PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 176,868 (66%) Buchanan (R) 74,797 (28%) Uncommitted 10,132 (4%) Duke (R) 5,557 (2%) Other 2,347 (1%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Tsongas (D) 526,297 (66%) Brown (D) 115,746 (15%) Clinton (D) 86,817 (11%) Other 42,654 (5%) Uncommitted 12,198 (2%) Kerrey (D) 5,409 (1%) Harkin (D) 3,764 (1%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 135,946 (48%) Buchanan (R) 71,688 (25%) Forbes (R) 39,605 (14%) Alexander (R) 21,456 (8%) Other 6,171 (2%)
39 Keyes (R) 5,224 (2%) Lugar (R) 4,743 (2%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 135,360 (87%) Uncommitted 12,623 (8%) LaRouche (D) 5,212 (3%) Other 2,275 (2%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary McCain (R) 324,708 (65%) Bush (R) 159,534 (32%) Keyes (R) 12,630 (3%) Other 5,079 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 341,586 (60%) Bradley (D) 212,452 (37%) Other 16,036 (3%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 440,964 (72%) Edwards (D) 108,051 (18%) Kucinich (D) 25,198 (4%) Dean (D) 17,076 (3%) Sharpton (D) 6,123 (1%) Other 17,776 (3%)
Profile of Massachusetts About 69 percent of Massachusetts’ voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, above the national rate of 64 percent.
Massachusetts’ 2007 population of 6.4 million includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population and a lower percentage of Hispanics and blacks than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
Selected Characteristics Massachusetts U.S. Median age 38.2 36.4 Women 51.6% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 80.0% 66.4% Black alone 6.9% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 7.9% 14.8% Median household income $59,963 $48,451 Foreign born 14.1% 12.5% Persons below poverty 9.9% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 37.0% 27.0%
40 25+) Median home value $370,400 $185,200165
Massachusetts is center stage because its health coverage program is the most ambitious up- and-running initiative in the nation; it requires nearly all residents to get health insurance. The state avoided a broad-based tax increase by using $375 million of federal Medicaid to help low- income residents buy private insurance. By December, at least 290,000 Massachusetts residents had signed up for new health coverage. That’s between half and two-thirds of the estimated number of uninsured in the state.166
Independents are the largest voting bloc in Massachusetts – 13 percent of registered voters are Republican, 33 are Democrats, while the majority is unenrolled in a political party.167
Massachusetts is the only state where same-sex marriage is legal.168
Massachusetts is now largely Roman Catholic, though its religious foundation was solidly Protestant. The Pilgrims, who established the Plymouth colony in 1620, and the Puritan settlers went to Massachusetts mainly for religious reasons. Following colonial patterns, churches often are found in the most prominent places of the towns and villages, symbolizing their traditional central role in social life.169
Massachusetts is one of the original 13 states (6th) of the Union (February 6, 1788). Boston, the capital of Massachusetts since its founding, dates from 1630. The Massachusetts Constitution was ratified in 1780 while the Revolutionary War was still in progress, nine years before the United States Constitution was adopted. It is the oldest written Constitution now in use in the world. It specified three branches of Government: Executive, Legislative, and Judicial.
Massachusetts has undergone a profound economic transition over the past ten years. During the 1990s, especially between 1993 and 2000, great statewide economic expansion occurred. The Commonwealth expanded its export sector in the following industries: information technology, financial services, knowledge creation, health care, traditional manufacturing and travel and tourism.170
The economy of Massachusetts today is based largely on technological research and development and the service sector (including tourism). Massachusetts now usually ranks as one of the top U.S. states in value of fish landings. Southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod produce about two-fifths of the U.S. cranberry supply.
Many of the country's oldest and most prestigious institutions of higher learning, in addition to Harvard, are located in Massachusetts. The largest, both in Boston, are Boston University and Northeastern University.171
41 Missouri Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates MISSOURI Open Registered 72 in the primary 58 in the primary primary voters may 47 district level 27 district level participate in 25 statewide 28 statewide either primary. 16 super-delegates 3 RNC members
Total: 88 Total: 58
Pledged district-level delegates All delegates (district-level, are allocated according to the statewide and RNC members) primary vote in each CD with a are winner-take-all by 15% threshold. Statewide statewide vote. delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.
Missouri It's a toss-up between McCain, Romney and Huckabee. All three plan stops in the state or already have visited in recent weeks; the attention underscores the prize, again winner-take-all.
Huckabee hopes his ties to the religious right give him a boost. Romney has Midwestern ties and the support of Gov. Matt Blunt -- and access to Blunt's political organization.
The state, very conservative in Republican primaries, is not a natural fit for McCain. But he may benefit from Huckabee competing in the state. Huckabee and Romney could split the vote on the right, making way for McCain to rack up another win.
It's also possible for McCain to benefit at least a little from Giuliani's support in Missouri, where the former mayor had the backing of longtime Sen. Kit Bond. Yet there is no love lost between Bond, an appropriator, and McCain, the pork buster. 172
Huckabee said Jan. 29 that he must win Missouri's primary if he is to have a chance at the Republican nomination for president.173
For a century, voters in Missouri have proven to be a nearly perfect gauge of the nation's thinking on presidential candidates, swaying from Democrats to Republicans and back again, but always (besides a certain election in 1956) voting in general elections for the candidate who ultimately wins the nation.
The battle for Missouri is very pronounced, in part because of its bellwether status. A victory here, political experts say, carries symbolism when it comes to answering questions about electability from the rest of the country. If you can win here, the thinking goes, you can win anywhere. And if you can't, well, you can't.
A poll of Missouri Republicans last week for The St. Louis Post-Dispatch and a television station showed a tight race: McCain with 31 percent; Huckabee, 25 percent; and Romney, 21 percent. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus five percentage points.
42 The Post-Dispatch poll, this time of Democratic voters, showed Clinton ahead with 44 percent, Obama with 31 percent and John Edwards, who has since suspended his campaign, with 18 percent.174
Missouri History Missouri's caucus system is well over 100 years old. It long withstood the populist push for presidential primaries that began with Florida in 1904.175
This year's primary will be the fourth presidential primary held in Missouri. The other two took place in 1988, 2000, and 2004. In 1996, a law was passed that permanently established a presidential primary election in Missouri replacing the previously practiced caucus system.176
Missouri held a presidential primary in 1988, joining in on 1988’s Super Tuesday, and nearly 1 million voters turned out to support native son Richard A. Gephardt in the Democratic primary and to give George Bush a narrow victory over Bob Dole in the Republican contest. That was the closest Dole came to victory on that Super Tuesday.177
After 1988 Missouri went back to multi-tiered caucuses to elect delegates in 1992 and 1996.
Missouri was a Bill Clinton state in both the spring and fall of 1992.178
Pat Buchanan's won a surprise victory in Missouri’s March 1996 Republican caucuses.179
In 2000 Missouri went back to the Super Tuesday primary. In 2000 Bush and Gore won easy victories, even though Gore’s rival Bill Bradley grew up in Jefferson County, Missouri.
Since Missouri's presidential primary is "open,'' voters can take a ballot for either party's contest. And since the state doesn't register voters by party, that means non-aligned independents can vote in whichever contest features their favorite. Disenchanted partisans can switch camps without detection. So large turnouts in one party's primary could be good sign for their nominee nationally.
In 2000, the Show Me State's last truly hard-fought presidential contest in both parties, the Republican turnout set a state record. That showing foretold Republican George W. Bush's success that fall.180
In 2004 Missouri was not much contested, because it was assumed Missouri’s Dick Gephardt would win there; but he dropped out before the February 3 primary. When Gephardt dropped out it set off a last-minute frenzy of activity from Democratic rivals who earlier had written off the state. Kerry won with 51% of the vote; John Edwards, apparently unable to make a connection with Missouri’s many southern-accented voters, won only 25%.181
In 2004, Missouri's Democratic turnout in the presidential primary set a record as Kerry and Edwards duked it out. Only 15 percent of Missouri voters turned out for the state's last presidential primary in 2004, largely because of a dismal turnout among Republicans because Bush had no serious opposition. The state's Democratic vote in that year's presidential primary, won by Kerry, actually set a record.182
In 2008 Missouri could end up being the deal-maker for both parties' ultimate nominees. It is among only a handful of true swing states in that Feb. 5 conglomerate.
For the Republican contenders in Missouri, it's winner take all. For the Democrats, all presidential candidates who garner at least 15 percent of Missouri's statewide vote can count on capturing some delegates.183
43 In 2008, both parties feature competitive fields of candidates. Which means Missouri - known for its bellwether status - could see on Feb. 5 a replay of 2000. That means, Missouri once again may offer the nation a hint of what could be in store at the polls next fall.184
Despite Missouri's historic status as a "bellwether state'' reflecting national trends, its chief attraction for 2008 so far has been as a "bankroll state,'' where candidates collect campaign cash to spend elsewhere.185
MISSOURI PRIMARY RESULTS
No Presidential Primaries in MO in 1992.
No Presidential Primaries in MO in 1996.
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 275,366 (58%) McCain (R) 167,831 (35%) Keyes (R) 27,282 (6%) Other 5,079 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 171,562 (65%) Bradley (D) 89,092 (34%) Other 4835 (2%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 211,745 (51%) Edwards (D) 103,088 (25%) Dean (D) 36,288 (9%) Clark (D) 18,340 (4%) Lieberman (D) 14,727 (4%) Other 34,151 (8%)
Profile of Missouri About 69 percent of Missouri’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, above the national rate of 64 percent.
Missouri’s 2007 population of 5.9 million includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white- alone population and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
Selected Characteristics Missouri U.S. Median age 37.1 36.4 Women 51.1% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 82.6% 66.4% Black alone 11.5% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 2.8% 14.8% Median household income $42,841 $48,451 Foreign born 3.3% 12.5%
44 Persons below poverty 13.6% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 24.3% 27.0% Median home value $131,900 $185,200186
Culturally, Missouri remains more conservative than most bigger states. From the 1960s to the 1990s it mirrored national trends by moving its congressional politics from pretty solidly Democratic to leaning Republican.
Missouri had eight contests for president, senator and governor between 2000 and 2006, and only one of them has been decided by a wide margin, Senator Christopher Bond’s reelection in 2004.
Missouri remains closely divided between the parties, just as it is uniquely divided in another way: this is the only state whose name is pronounced differently in different regions: in metro St. Louis they say Missouree, in the rest of the state Missouruh.187
Missouri has an estimated 35,000 to 65,000 illegal immigrants.188 Hispanics -- legal and illegal -- made up less than 3 percent of Missouri's population of almost 5.8 million.189 Missouri lawmakers say they have no choice but to make illegal immigration a target in 2008, and are pushing tougher laws. Missouri is 39th among the states in the percent of its population that is foreign-born.190
Missouri has a long-established reputation as one of the nation's foremost anti-abortion states. A major campaign to strictly limit abortion, if not effectively prohibit the procedure, could polarize Missouri's electorate in this historically critical battleground state. At issue is a measure anti- abortion groups want to put on next November's ballot.191
Missouri was organized as a territory in 1812 and was admitted to the Union as the 24th state on August 10, 1821. Missouri was the second state (after Louisiana) of the Louisiana Purchase to be admitted to the Union.192
The area of Missouri is 69,697 square miles; lightly more than half of the population lives in the two major cities, St. Louis and Kansas City, and their surrounding counties.193
Branson is now one of America’s top tourist destinations (with nearly eight million visitors a year), with country music stars and soft rock veterans.
The Roman Catholic church, which was dominant until the Louisiana Purchase, remains powerful, particularly in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas. After 1803 the chief Protestant denominations as well as many smaller sects were established. Baptists and Methodists predominate, and various Pentecostal groups are well represented throughout the state. Jewish communities have flourishing congregations in the larger cities.194
Manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, and service enterprises are among Missouri's largest industries. More than 68 percent of Missouri's nonagricultural employment is in wholesale and retail trade, services and manufacturing, which account for 1,710,100 jobs. Other nonagricultural jobs are provided by construction, government, transportation, public utilities, banking, insurance, real estate and mining. These industries employ 788,800 persons and provide a solid, diversified base for growth.195
Missouri's unemployment rate was 5.5 percent in December, up from 5.2 percent in November and an increase from the 4.8 percent rate in December 2006. Missouri's work force was slightly less than 3.06 million people in December, about the same in November but up from 3.05 million in December of last year.196
45 New Jersey Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates NEW Semi-open Registered 107 in the primary 52 in the primary JERSEY primary party members 70 district level 39 district level may only vote 37 statewide 10 statewide in their own party's 20 super-delegates 3 RNC members primary. Independents, Total: 127 Total: 52 newly registered and Pledged district-level All delegates (district-level, first-time delegates are allocated statewide and RNC primary votes according to the primary vote members) are winner-take-all may vote in in each CD with a 15% by the statewide vote. either primary. threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.
New Jersey Clinton starts with an advantage here, since she is well known for representing neighboring New York. She has been promoting her plan to improve the economy, especially among women who have been hardest hit.
But the Obama campaign predicts the election will be closer than many people anticipate, particularly with a large number of black voters in the state.
Obama drew thousands to a rally in Jersey City the day after his loss in New Hampshire, and he has the backing of some big-city mayors who are helping him organize. He is running television advertising in New York and Philadelphia, two expensive media markets that cover most of New Jersey. 197
The Democrats’ elaborate rules that award delegates in proportion to each candidate's share of the vote could mean even a Clinton stronghold like New Jersey may produce some delegates for Obama -- and it explains why Obama visited Jersey City this month, weeks before New Jersey was set to vote, where a crowd of about 4,500 lined up to hear him. 198
McCain has an advantage in New Jersey. In many ways, this winner-take-all state is much like neighboring New York. Giuliani held an enormous lead in New Jersey for a year before McCain recently overtook him in polls.
New Jersey is home to huge numbers of moderate Republicans, and that bodes well for McCain, as does its focus on issues like port security and defense.
As in New York, Romney must weigh whether competing here is worth it. Campaigning in New Jersey typically doesn't result in much of a return on a candidate's investment. Philadelphia and New York are the two media markets that cover the state, making TV ads extraordinarily expensive to run. At the same time, it's hard for candidates to break through the cluttered news environment to earn free media exposure.
McCain has the backing of former Gov. Thomas Kean, while Romney has the support of State Sen. Joe Kyrillos, the former chairman of New Jersey's Republican state committee. 199
46
New Jersey Primary History For at least 60 years, New Jersey held its presidential primary on the first Tuesday in June, months after most other states had voted and major party candidates typically had been decided. But while voters never got to see candidates campaigning, candidates collected money from New Jerseyans. In 2004, presidential candidates raised $15.5 million from New Jersey, the eighth highest total in the nation.200
There have been a couple of times when New Jersey's vote mattered: Gerald Ford needed to win here in 1976 to offset Reagan's victories in California and Ohio, and in 1984, New Jersey helped Walter Mondale edge Gary Hart.201
In 1980, Edward M. Kennedy scored a last hurrah of sorts with Democratic primary wins over the front-running Jimmy Carter in both New Jersey and California.
In 1988, Dukakis won virtually all of New Jersey in the Presidential primary yesterday, from the southern shore to the northern suburbs, and ceded only the heavily black urban areas to the Rev. Jesse Jackson. Dukakis won the primary over Mr. Jackson by about a 2-to-1 ratio.202
Bush took more than three-quarters of the vote in the 1992 primary, with the rest going to a fading Patrick J. Buchanan (who drew only 15 percent of the vote) and a rising Ross Perot (who took 8 percent on write-ins).203
In 1996, Bob Dole drew 83 percent of the vote in New Jersey's Republican presidential primary. Pat Buchanan drew 11 percent and Alan Keyes drew 7 percent. Dole won all of the delegates. President Clinton drew 95%, with perennial candidate Lyndon LaRouche drawing 5%. Clinton won all of the delegates.204
In 2000, Bush won an easy victory in the Republican primary winning 84% while Gore won an even stronger 95% in the Democratic primary.
2004 was even less competitive than 2000, Kerry won 92% of the vote in the Democratic primary and Bush faced no competition.
New Jersey voters historically show little interest in primary elections.
For example, the last presidential primary, in 2004, which also included U.S. House candidates, attracted only 9 percent of all registered voters.
In 2000, a primary which had a U.S. senate race in addition to president and House, only 17 percent cast ballots.205
For years, New Jersey’s June presidential primary was overshadowed by California’s on the same day. In 1996 California voted in March, and New Jersey did not get to the polls until two months after the nominations were sewn up.
In 1998 the state Senate refused to move the primary to March. But in April 2007, with the approval of Governor Jon Corzine, the New Jersey primary was moved, like so many others, to February 5, 2008.206
Unlike June 2004, by which time the presidential nominees had long been decided, this year's New Jersey primary will have some influence in the presidential election. New Jersey is one of the most populous states voting on Super Tuesday, after California, New York and Illinois.207
Independent of unaffiliated voters outnumber both parties combined in this state. 2.7 million of New Jersey's 4.7 million registered voters are independent. However, virtually no independents
47 have shown up for recent presidential primaries in New Jersey. They are people who wish to be unaffiliated with parties, so they avoid associating with them at primaries. If independents turn out to vote at primaries this year, they can have a big influence on the outcome in New Jersey. The Democratic Party has 1.2 million registered voters, and the GOP has 800,000.208
NEW JERSEY PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 240,535 (78%) Buchanan (R) 46,432 (15%) Other 23,303 (8%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 243,741 (62%) Brown (D) 79,877 (20%) Tsongas (D) 45,191 (12%) Other 23,817 (6%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 180,412 (83%) Buchanan (R) 23,789 (11%) Keyes (R) 14,611 (7%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 254,004 (95%) LaRouche (D) 12,736 (5%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 201,209 (84%) Keyes (R) 39,601 (16%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 358,951 (95%) LaRouche (D) 19,321 (5%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 198,213 (92%) Kucinich (D) 9,251 (4%) LaRouche (D) 4,514 (2%) Ballard (D) 2,826 (1%)
Profile of New Jersey About 66 percent of New Jersey’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, slightly above the national rate of 64 percent.
New Jersey’s 2007 population of 8.7 million has a higher median household income and higher median home value than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
48 Selected Characteristics New Jersey U.S. Median age 38.2 36.4 Women 51.1% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 62.6% 66.4% Black alone 14.5% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 15.6% 14.8% Median household income $64,470 $48,451 Foreign born 20.1% 12.5% Persons below poverty 8.7% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 33.4% 27.0% Median home value $366,600 $185,200209
In the years since 2000, the balance in New Jersey politics has favored the Democrats. In two elections each for governor and senator New Jersey has voted between 53% and 56% for Democrats and between 42% and 44% for Republicans.
On a map showing the results by city and townships, Democrats carry the spine of the state, on either side of the Metroliner route and through the South Jersey suburbs of Philadelphia; Republicans carry the outliers, most of the Jersey Shore on the east and the affluent suburban and exurban areas on the northwest.210
More than 48,000 new voters registered in time to vote in next month's presidential primary and, in true Garden State fashion, the overwhelming majority did not align with any party. In a state where "unaffiliated" voters outnumber Democrats and Republicans combined, roughly eight in 10 new voters opted not to join a party. Statewide, 58 percent of registered voters are unaffiliated, while 24 percent are Democrats and 18 percent are Republicans.211 Nearly 60 percent of the registered voters in New Jersey are not affiliated with any party.212
No Republican has won New Jersey's presidential vote since George H.W. Bush in 1988.213
New Jersey was one of the 13 original states. It was the third state to ratify U.S. Constitution in 1787. Two New Jersey cities temporarily served as the nation's capital during the Revolution. From June 30 to November 4, 1783, Princeton was the U.S. capital. Trenton was capital from November 1 to December 24, 1784.214
New Jersey is a curious amalgam of urban and rural, poor and wealthy, progressive and conservative, parochial and cosmopolitan. New Jersey is one of the smallest states in area, but it is highly urbanized and has one of the country's highest population densities. Hundreds of thousands of its citizens commute to New York and Pennsylvania. Five northeastern counties in the New York City metropolitan area—Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Bergen, and Union—contain nearly two-fifths of New Jersey's population
The most striking demographic trend in New Jersey is the movement of the white population away from the cities and the concurrent proportional growth of the urban black and Hispanic population.215 Today, New Jersey is the nation’s eleventh most populous state: It boomed in the 1980s, suffered sharply in the early 1990s recession, came back strongly, then fell back by the tech bust of 2000.
New Jersey is the home of several of the nation’s biggest pharmaceutical firms—Merck, Johnson & Johnson, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Novartis, Schering-Plough—with complexes spread out through north and central Jersey, though they have been troubled by class action lawsuits.
49 New Jersey is by most measures exceedingly prosperous. This is prosperous middle-income country, with more two-car than one-car families but fewer limousines than Manhattan, with an estimated 13,500 $1 million houses.
New Jersey has long been a magnet for immigrants, and it is again today. Latinos make up about 16 percent of New Jersey's work force, and compose more than a third of the manufacturing/transportation sector. No group illustrates the Latino influx into manufacturing more vividly than immigrants from Ecuador, whose numbers have skyrocketed in NJ since the start of the decade, from 68,772 in 2000 to 97,826 in 2006.216
New Jersey has the most millionaire households in the country, according to a marketing company's fifth annual ranking. According to Phoenix Affluent Marketing Service, in 2007, 7.12 percent of New Jersey's 3.2 million households had a total of $1 million or more liquid or investable assets.217
More than 82 percent of New Jersey's high school students graduated with their class in 2003-04, the second highest rate in the country behind Utah. In New Jersey, more than half of jobs require some post-secondary education or training, and on average those jobs demand at least four years of such schooling.218
Overall, New Jersey's population continues to grow due to new births and immigration from other countries, but it is now one of the 10 slowest growing states in the nation. The state added a total of 21,410 people in 2006, about a quarter of the growth it recorded in 2002.
More and more residents are leaving the state, a symptom of New Jersey's high housing costs and taxes, and more robust job growth elsewhere. Between 2000 and 2005, one in eight residents left the state. In 2006, 72,547 more U.S. residents left New Jersey than moved in.
The median cost for homeowners with a mortgage in New Jersey is 52 percent higher than the national average.219 New Jersey and New York state residents paid the highest property taxes in the country in 2006, as much as $6,500 more than the national median, according to the Tax Foundation.Hunterdon County, NJ had the highest median real estate taxes, totaling $7,999. New Jersey's statewide median real estate taxes were $5,773, while the median value of a home was $366,600.220
In 2007, Gov. Corzine signed into law a measure abolishing the death penalty, making New Jersey the first state in more than four decades to reject capital punishment.221 Also in 2007, New Jersey voters rejected a Corzine-backed proposal to borrow $450 million for stem cell research.222
Gay couples were granted the same legal rights, if not the title, as married couples on Feb. 19 when New Jersey became the third state to offer civil unions.223
Atlantic City's 11 casinos took in $4.9 billion in 2007, down from $5.2 billion in 2006, the first-ever decline in casino gambling. The decline was blamed on slots parlors in Delaware, Pennsylvania and New York, which drew customers who were once Atlantic City's exclusive domain.224
Adopted in 1948, New Jersey's cigarette tax stands at $2.575 per pack of twenty, which is the highest cigarette tax in the nation.225
The greatest single industry is chemicals; New Jersey is one of the foremost research centers in the world. Many large oil refineries are located in northern New Jersey.
50 Oklahoma Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates OKLAHOMA Closed Only 38 in the primary 38 in the primary primary registered 25 district level 15 district level party 13 statewide 23 statewide members may vote. 9 super-delegates 3 RNC members
Total: 47 Total: 41
Pledged district-level Pledged district-level delegates are allocated delegates are winner-take-all according to the primary vote by CD. Pledged statewide in each CD with a 15% delegates are winner-take-all threshold. Pledged statewide by statewide vote. delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.
Oklahoma Clinton is strong in Oklahoma, a neighboring state to Arkansas. 226
University of Oklahoma political science professor Keith Gaddie said a question now is where Edwards voters go, if anywhere. Though Clinton has been leading in the polls in Oklahoma, Edwards has been a close second, with Obama in third. Edwards has been doing well among white male voters in Southern primaries, Gaddie said. In Oklahoma, he said, "There's a big undecided (bloc) of white men. I don't know if those guys are going to stay home (on Tuesday) or not." 227
McCain could do well in Western states like Oklahoma. 228
McCain has been trailing Huckabee in polls in Oklahoma, but the senator has gained momentum from his recent victories in South Carolina and Florida that he could carry into Oklahoma.
Gaddie said that Huckabee still leads McCain in the latest polling in the state but that McCain has been closing the gap. In the latest poll, taken about a week ago, he said, Huckabee had nearly 30 percent support and McCain had 25 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has been running well behind Huckabee and McCain in Oklahoma.229
Oklahoma History In 1988, George Bush edged Dole by 5,208 votes in the Republican primary and then-Tennessee Sen. Al Gore won the Democratic race over Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts, the eventual nominee.230
There wasn't a lot of excitement leading up to the 1992 Super Tuesday when Bush was seeking re-election on the Republican side. Clinton, former governor from neighboring Arkansas, easily won the Democratic primary in Oklahoma.231
In 1996, Dole won a solid victory in Oklahoma winning 59% of the vote. Clinton picked up all the Democratic delegates that were up for grabs.
51 Oklahoma’s presidential primary hasn’t attracted much attention in the recent past. For years it was held in March, as one of many Super Tuesday primaries, and was ignored. In 2001 one Democratic legislator tried to abolish the primary; instead the legislature rescheduled it for February 3, 2004, a week after New Hampshire.
As one of two primaries in a southern-accented state that day (the other was South Carolina), Oklahoma was targeted by John Edwards and Wesley Clark, desperate for a win after John Kerry’s triumphs in Iowa and New Hampshire. Clark won here—his first and only electoral victory—but with just 29.9%, to 29.5% for Edwards and 27% for John Kerry. Edwards’s failure to win Oklahoma the same day he won South Carolina may have hurt him; in any case he won no more contests.
Kerry’s third-place finish in the 2000 primary proved no problem for him, as he won nearly all the other Democratic contests. But his anemic percentage here was a harbinger of his Oklahoma performance in November.232
In 2004, retired Gen. Wesley Clark kept his presidential hopes alive with a razor-thin victory over Edwards in Oklahoma's Democratic presidential primary. Clark won 29.94% of the vote and Edwards won 29.54%. Kerry finished in third place with 26.81%.
In the 2004 Republican primary, President Bush got 90% of the vote against a nominal opponent, Los Angeles T-shirt retailer Bill Wyatt.233
OKLAHOMA PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 151,612 (70%) Buchanan (R) 57,933 (27%) Duke (R) 5,672 (3%) Other 2,504 (1%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 293,266 (71%) Brown (D) 69,624 (17%) Other 25,972 (6%) Harkin (D) 14,015 (3%) Kerrey (D) 13,252 (3%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 156,829 (59%) Buchanan (R) 56,949 (22%) Forbes (R) 37,213 (14%) Keyes (R) 6,306 (2%) Alexander (R) 3,436 (1%) Other 3,809 (1%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 279,454 (76%) LaRouche (D) 46,392 (13%) Other 40,758 (11%)
52
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 98,781 (79%) McCain (R) 12,973 (10%) Keyes (R) 11,595 (9%) Other 1,460 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 92,654 (69%) Bradley (D) 34,311 (25%) LaRouche (D) 7,885 (6%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Clark (D) 90,526 (30%) Edwards (D) 89,310 (30%) Kerry (D) 81,073 (27%) Lieberman (D) 19,680 (7%) Dean (D) 12,734 (4%) Other 9,062 (3%)
Profile of Oklahoma Oklahoma has one of the highest American Indian and Alaska Native population percentages in the United States, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 62 percent of Oklahoma’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, not statistically different from the national rate of 64 percent.
Overall, Oklahoma has a lower median household income and median home value than the nation as a whole.
Selected Characteristics Oklahoma U.S. Population change: 2000-2007 4.8% 7.2% Women 50.7% 50.7% Median age 36.0 36.4 White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 72.1% 66.4% Black alone 7.8% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 6.9% 14.8% American Indian and Alaska Native 8.0% 1.0% alone Median household income $38,770 $48,451 Foreign born 4.9% 12.5% Persons below poverty 17.0% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 22.1% 27.0% Median home value $94,500 $185,200234
In federal elections, Oklahoma is a safely Republican state—George W. Bush carried all 77 counties in 2004—but in state politics there is vigorous two-party competition and Democrats still
53 have an edge in party registration. 235 A Democrat hasn't won the state's presidential vote since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.236
A new law took effect Nov. 1, 2007 barring illegal immigrants from obtaining jobs or state assistance and makes it a felony to harbor or transport illegal immigrants.237
Oklahoma was a place of trial and tragedy before it became the nation's 46th state on Nov. 16, 1907. Indian Territory was the destination point for Indian tribes driven by the federal government from the eastern part of the country, most notably the Cherokees on the Trail of Tears in 1838-39.
Oklahoma has been a state of constant motion throughout its history. While most early settlers scratched to make a living off farming, some newcomers struck it rich after the first commercial oil well hit Black Gold in 1897.
Heading into its second century, a modern-day Oklahoma is emerging with thriving urban centers, natural gas replacing oil as energy king and an economy that is diversifying as leaders turn to research and high-tech models of other states.
Oklahoma, with intense conservation projects and creation of hundreds of reservoirs and lakes, slowly recovered from the land blight of the 1930s and agriculture rivaled oil as the state's major economic force for the second half of the state's first century. The state got serious about diversifying its economy after another oil bust in the early 1980s shook the economy and devastated state revenues.
Oklahoma is a conservative Bible belt state that did not repeal Prohibition until 1959. Democrats dominated its early politics, which was marked by populism and a distrust for government and big business. In recent years, the state has elected mostly Republicans to high office.238
Of the Protestant majority, the Southern Baptists and the United Methodists predominate, and the resulting conservatism has placed Oklahoma in the Bible Belt. Other leading denominations include the Disciples of Christ, Assemblies of God, Churches of Christ, and Episcopalians.239
Oklahoma is the nation's 20th largest state, and it covers 69,903 square miles. Oklahoma ranks fourth in the nation in wheat production. The state is fourth in cattle and calf production.
Oklahoma is the place where four cultural regions meet: the West, Midwest, South and Southwest.240 Oklahoma was mostly Indian Territory until the late 1800s. Many of the 252,420 American Indians living in Oklahoma today are descendants from the original 67 tribes inhabiting Indian Territory.241 Oklahoma has the second-largest Indian population in the country, after California, though there is just one reservation and the status of many other tribal entities is often disputed.
The counties with a large Indian heritage in the eastern part of the state have been growing smartly, even as the Great Plains farm and oil counties west of Oklahoma City and Tulsa have lost population, and Indians own 6% of businesses in Oklahoma, about equal to their 7% share of the popualtion.242
Oklahoma ranks third in the nation in the number of its military troops deployed, according to the Department of Defense. Figures show Oklahoma has 3,368 members of its National Guard and Reserves on federal status.243
54 Tennessee Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates TENNESSEE Open Registered 68 in the primary 52 in the primary primary voters may 44 district level 27 district level participate in 24 statewide 25 statewide either primary. 17 super-delegates 3 RNC members
Total: 85 Total: 55
Pledged district-level Pledged district-level delegates are allocated delegates are winner-take-all according to the primary vote by CD vote if winner receives in each CD with a 15% at least 2/3 of the vote in that threshold. Pledged statewide CD. If not, delegates are delegates are allocated allocated proportionally with a according to the statewide 20% threshold. Pledged vote with a 15% threshold. statewide delegates are winner-take-all by statewide vote if the winner receives at least 2/3 of the vote. If not, delegates are allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold.
Tennessee While the Democratic presidential primary in Tennessee seems to mirror the increasingly combative contest elsewhere, things on the Republican side have moved into a melee more muddled than even the national political puzzle.
For candidates of both parties, Tennessee has become a strategic piece of ground in the battle for delegates on Feb. 5. 244
Huckabee will look to a Southern swath of conservative bastions like Tennessee to validate his weakened candidacy.245 Huckabee has been campaigning in the state. Huckabee will focus on Tennessee, according to his campaign manager, John “Chip” Saltsman, a former Tennessee Republican Party chairman.
For Republicans, the Tennessee picture is clouded because of Thompson’s withdrawal after early voting was under way and with his name still on the ballot.
Many Democrats believe Clinton has an edge over Obama in the state. Recent Democratic polling showed Clinton with strong support in Tennessee. Supporters for both Clinton and Obama have been active in Tennessee.
Obama’s campaign actually got a head start, opening headquarters in Nashville and Memphis well ahead of Clinton. Obama was first to run television ads in Tennessee as well.
But the Clinton campaign has since surpassed Obama in paying personal and television- advertising attention to Tennessee. Interestingly, both the candidate herself and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have made campaign appearances at forums associated with blacks.
55
Blacks typically make up about 25 percent to 30 percent of the vote in a Tennessee Democratic primary.246
Tennessee History During its 36-year history, Tennessee’s presidential primary has been mostly an exercise in futility and irrelevance. It began with the best of intentions. In the old days, delegates to national political conventions were invariably decided behind closed doors by those who controlled the party apparatus. The primary was an effort to democratize the process.
There were also hopes that the primary would draw candidates (plus their television budgets) and attention to the state. Democrats' motive was to bring a moderate, Southern viewpoint to a process that seemed centered in New Hampshire, Iowa and California.
It blew up immediately on the Democrats. George Wallace won the first primary in 1972 despite the best efforts of the moderates. It worked better in 1976, when Jimmy Carter used Tennessee to help prove that a mildly left-of-center Southern Democrat could compete.247
The classic 1976 primary between President Gerald R. Ford and Ronald Reagan pitted the two major power centers of Tennessee Republicanism against each other. Reagan swept the western half of the state, anchored by the burgeoning conservative suburbs of Shelby County (Memphis). Ford swept nearly all the eastern half of the state, anchored by mountain counties that had been a bastion of racially moderate Republicanism since the Civil War. Nearly a quarter-million votes were cast and Ford won by less than 1,688.248
GOP contests since then have been much more one-sided. Reagan beat George Bush in all of Tennessee's 95 counties in 1980.
The primary probably reached its highest, or maybe lowest, point in 1988, when Tennessee joined with a number of other Southern states for Super Tuesday, again calculated to put a regional tilt on the nominating process.249
Bush came back from his loss in 1980 to win all 95 of Tennessee’s counties in 1988. Bush's clear-cut triumph was surprising in that former Sen. William E. Brock III, originally from the Chattanooga area, was the national campaign chairman for Bob Dole.
The best Dole could do was a 25 percent to 30 percent share of the vote in some of the historically Republican counties of East Tennessee. Pat Robertson finished second ahead of Dole in about two dozen mainly rural counties in Middle and West Tennessee.
Al Gore, then a U.S. Senator from Tennessee, won 72% of the vote easily defeating Jesse Jackson in the state.
Bush won again in the 1992 primary, even though Patrick J. Buchanan sought to identify with the local economy by campaigning in a Tennessee-built Saturn. Buchanan reached one-third of the vote in just one county, Houston, a rural jurisdiction west of Nashville loaded with "yellow dog" Democrats.
Clinton swept the Democratic primary in 1992 with two-thirds of the vote. Paul E. Tsongas was a distant second, drawing one-third of the primary vote in populous Davidson (Nashville) and Knox (Hamilton) counties.
Clinton boasted endorsements from much of the state party leadership, but not Gore, who was never especially close to Clinton before being tapped as his running mate in July 1992.250
Dole won 51.2% of the vote in 1996 and easily besting Buchanan who won 25.2%.
56
In 2000, Gore won an overwhelming 92% victory in the state.
For several cycles Tennessee held its presidential primary on Super Tuesday. But it was far from the biggest state to vote that day, and so received little attention.
In 2004 it voted earlier, on February 10, just two weeks after New Hampshire; the only other primary that day was in Virginia. This was just a week after John Edwards had won in South Carolina and Wesley Clark had led Edwards and Kerry in a virtual three-way tie in Oklahoma. Edwards’s and Clark’s home states were both contiguous to Tennessee, and as southerners and, in Clark’s case, as a general, they would seem to have special appeal in the state. But Kerry won the primary with 41% of the vote to 27% for Edwards and 23% for Clark. Kerry had big pluralities in the largest counties but carried most small counties as well. Turnout was 369,000—far lower than the record Democratic primary turnout in 1988 of 576,000, when Al Gore was running.251
In 2008, Tennessee’s primary was moved from February 12 to February 5. There's never been an intense, high-dollar shootout here on either side. Over the years, the legislature has steadily moved the date up, from May to February in an effort to be a player. With Tennessee piled in with so many other states on Super Tuesday, the best that can be said is that voters here will get a chance to participate in what is effectively a national primary. 252
TENNESSEE PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 178,219 (73%) Buchanan (R) 54,585 (22%) Duke (R) 7,709 (3%) Uncommitted 5,022 (2%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 214,485 (67%) Tsongas (D) 61,717 (19%) Brown (D) 25,560 (8%) Uncommitted 12,551 (4%) Harkin (D) 2,099 (1%) Kerry (D) 1,638 (1%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 148,063 (51%) Buchanan (R) 72,929 (25%) Alexander (R) 32,742 (11%) Forbes (R) 22,171 (8%) Keyes (R) 7,661 (3%) Other 5,821 (2%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 122,538 (90%) Uncommitted (D) 15,144 (11%)
57 2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 193,166 (77%) McCain (R) 36,436 (15%) Keyes (R) 16,916 (7%) Other 4,273 (2%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 198,264 (92%) Bradley (D) 11,323 (5%) Other 4,585 (2%) LaRouche (D) 1,031 (1%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 151,527 (41%) Edwards (D) 97,914 (27%) Clark (D) 85,315 (23%) Dean (D) 16,128 (4%) Sharpton (D) 6,107 (2%) Other 12,394 (3%)
Profile of Tennessee Tennessee’s 2007 population of about 6 million includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white alone population, a higher percentage of blacks, and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 55 percent of Tennessee’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, below than the national rate of 64 percent.
Selected Characteristics Tennessee U.S. Median age 37.1 36.4 Women 51.1% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 77.5% 66.4% Black alone 16.9% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 3.2% 14.8% Median household income $40,315 $48,451 Foreign born 3.9% 12.5% Persons below poverty 16.2% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 21.7% 27.0% Median home value $123,100 $185,200253
In 1790 Congress organized the territory south of the Ohio River, and Tennessee joined the Union in 1796. 254
Long before Tennessee officially became the 16th state on this date in 1796, it had already begun to earn its nickname as the Volunteer State, a reflection of the large number of volunteers it sent to fight in the American Revolution.
58 That tradition continued through the War of 1812, the Mexican War and the Civil War. It continues to this day at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville, whose sports teams dub themselves as the “Vols.” 255
The state is now predominantly industrial; the majority of its population lives in urban areas. Tennessee is a leading tobacco-producing state; among its most important products are chemicals, textiles, apparel, electrical machinery, furniture, and leather goods.256
Tennessee, an area of 42,144 square miles is unique. It stretches from the Appalachian Mountain boundary with North Carolina in the east to the Mississippi River borders with Missouri and Arkansas in the west.
While the East is well known for its mountain tradition, the Bluegrass area of Middle Tennessee is a balanced agricultural and commercial region, and the West has an economy based largely on cotton and the Mississippi River, with closer ties to the Deep South.257
Tennessee is and has long been a political battleground. Its political divisions have their roots in the Civil War, and many counties today still vote their 1860s loyalties: The Union counties, mainly in the east but also a scattering to the west, vote solidly Republican, while the Confederate counties in middle and west Tennessee long voted heavily Democratic.
Today the political balance has changed, and Tennessee has become a mostly Republican state. Democrats’ cultural liberalism has moved rural voters in west and middle Tennessee away from their ancestral loyalties, and the surging growth in the ring of counties around Nashville in the 1990s has created a new voting bloc that is conservative on both economic and cultural issues.258
Unemployment has been low, and Tennessee’s population increased 19% between 1990 and 2006. Growth has been particularly robust in the ring of counties around Nashville, which have been attracting significant Hispanic immigration.259
Nashville has become the cultural as well as the political capital of the state, weaving traditional patterns of the three “grand divisions” with contemporary trends in music and literature.260
Under a law that took effect in 2008, Tennessee will be able to suspend licenses for companies found to have knowingly employed illegal immigrants.261 On Jan. 1, 2008, Tennessee joined Arizona as the only states in the nation to threaten employers who “knowingly” hire illegal immigrants with significant sanctions.262
Tennessee had between 100,000 and 150,000 illegal immigrants in 2005, about 2 percent of the population. Nashville is home to 36 percent of the state's foreign-born population and Memphis is home to 22 percent. Chattanooga and Knoxville have less than 10 percent each.263
59 Arkansas Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:30 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates ARKANSAS Open Registered 35 in the primary 31 in the primary primary voters can 22 pledged 12 pledged participate in 13 statewide 19 statewide either primary. 12 super-delegates 3 RNC members
Total: 47 Total: 34
Pledged district-level Pledged district-level delegates are allocated delegates are winner-take-all according to the primary vote by CD if winner gets a in each CD, with a 15% majority. If no majority in a CD, threshold. Statewide the highest vote-getter in that delegates are allocated district wins 2 delegates and according to statewide vote, runner-up gets 1 delegate. with a 15% threshold. Statewide: Anyone who wins 10% gets one delegate. The statewide winner gets the remaining delegates if he/she wins a majority of the vote. If no majority, then the top three vote-getters statewide split proportionally.
Arkansas With former Gov. Huckabee on the Republican ballot and former Arkansas first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton on the Democrat side, the other candidates have largely ignored the state and left it to the contenders with state ties.264
Arkansas was Clinton’s home before her husband was elected president. 265 Clinton is counting on a victory in Arkansas, where her husband, former President Bill Clinton, was governor. 266
Arkansas, Huckabee’s home state, should be an easy state for Huckabee.267
Bill Clinton and Huckabee will made quick stops in Arkansas on Feb. 1 to pump up voters before Tuesday's presidential primary. The former president's twocity visit follows a Jan. 30 campaign stop by his wife, Sen. Hillary Clinton. Obama will likely not visit the state, but his campaign will begin airing TV commercials today in the Little Rock market.268
Arkansas History Arkansas moved its primary up from August in 1972, but not to have greater impact on the presidential nomination process. Voters and candidates alike simply complained it was too hot.269
The state's recent presidential primaries have taken place in May, after other states' primaries had pretty much sewn up the national nominations. In past Arkansas primaries, the presidential choices were on the same ballot with local and state races, and many voters just skipped the presidential question.270
The only year Arkansas has ever held its presidential primary before mid-May was in 1988, when it joined with other Southern states to shift to Super Tuesday, the second Tuesday in March.271
60
Al Gore finished first in several presidential primaries in 1988. In Arkansas, he got 185,000 votes compared with 93,000 for Michael Dukakis. Yet several of the state's Democratic officeholders supported Dukakis.272
At times, Arkansas Democrats have given Bill Clinton little more than a passing grade. Running for a fifth term as governor in 1990, Clinton was renominated with a lackluster 55 percent of the primary vote. In the state's presidential primary two years later, in 1992, he took a more impressive 68 percent. Still, his home- state percentage was less than the share of the vote he won in six other primaries in 1992.273
In Arkansas' 1992 presidential primary, 46 percent of registered voters cast ballots. In 1996, it was just 25 percent, but there was no Democratic primary because President Clinton was unopposed.274
In 2000, Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush march forward in their presidential campaigns after winning the support of Arkansas voters in the party primaries. Party leaders said Arkansas voters, in nominating the two candidates, sent an important message of support, even though both men had already wrapped up their parties' nominations in earlier primaries in other states.275
In 2004, John Kerry won the presidential primary in Arkansas. Kerry's opponents were perpetual presidential candidate Lyndon LaRouche and Dennis Kucinich. President Bush had no Republican challengers in the GOP primary.276
The Arkansas presidential primary, usually held in May, attracts little attention. So the legislature voted in 2005 to move it to the first Tuesday in February in an effort to give the state a more significant voice in the nominating process
In 2006 Arkansas sought the national Democratic party’s sanction to hold an early primary, right after New Hampshire. But the Democratic National Committee awarded that plum to South Carolina, which has a much higher percentage of African-Americans, instead.277
Counties around Arkansas are preparing and testing hundreds of touch-screen electronic voting machines for the state's Feb. 5 presidential primary. Election officials around the state are hoping to avoid a repeat of 2006, when equipment and tabulation delays plagued the May primary and June runoff, the first major tests of equipment that was supposed to ease the voting process. Since then, the state has held the 2006 general election and two school board elections statewide using the machines.278
ARKANSAS PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 45,590 (87%) Buchanan (R) 6,551 (13%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 342,017 (68%) Uncommitted 90,710 (18%) Brown (D) 55,234 (11%) Other 14,656 (3%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary
61 Dole (R) 32,687 (76%) Buchanan (R) 10,084 (24%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 236,547 (79%) Uncommitted 30,416 (10%) LaRouche (D) 20,401 (7%) Other 13,025 (4%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 35,759 (80%) Keyes (R) 8,814 (20%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 193,750 (79%) LaRouche (D) 53,150 (22%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 177,754 (67%) Uncommitted 61,800 (23%) Kucinich (D) 13,766 (5%) LaRouche (D) 13,528 (5%)
Profile of Arkansas Arkansas' 2007 population of 2.8 million includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white- alone population, a higher percentage of blacks, and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 59 percent of Arkansas' voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, lower than the national rate of 64 percent.
Selected Characteristics Arkansas U.S. Median age 36.8 36.4 Women 51.0% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 76.4% 66.4% Black alone 15.7% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 5.0% 14.8% Median household income $36,599 $48,451 Foreign born 3.8% 12.5% Persons below poverty 17.3% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 18.2% 27.0% Median home value $93,900 $185,200279
Politically, Arkansas was long solidly Democratic, with Republican pockets in the mountains in the northwest, although Republicans have won top of the line races occasionally.
62 One reason Republicans have not been able to convert their predominance in post-Clinton presidential politics into statewide victories is that Republican primaries tend to be dominated by voters from the atypically booming northwest corner of the state, and they have chosen nominees who had a hard time appealing to voters in Little Rock and the economically more quiescent counties in the east and south.280
To win election in this state is to study in a deeply challenging school of tactile politics. In short, a rigidly consistent ideology, as practiced in the Northeastern states, is not a winner in Arkansas. Unlike those in other Deep South states, rural white voters in Arkansas - identified by the political scientist Jay Barth of Hendrix College in Conway, Arkansas, as the state's critical constituency - are not easily wooed by an unwavering conservative line.
The Republicans' ascent in Arkansas was not based on racial divisions as it was in other Southern states, where appeals to solidarity based on race remain a potent if unspoken force for the party. Quite the contrary: Rockefeller, who in 1966 became the first Republican to be elected governor since Reconstruction, opened up state offices to blacks.281
While Arkansas remains socially conservative in the mold of its other Southern neighbors, Democrats in the state have been thriving in recent years. No Republican statewide elected officials remain after the 2006 elections, the state Legislature is controlled by Democrats, and there is only one Republican in the state's Congressional delegation.
Bill Clinton carried the state in both 1992 and 1996, but George W. Bush carried it in 2000, by a margin of 51 percent to 46 percent, and in 2004, by a margin of 54 percent to 45 percent. While the state was not vigorously contested in the 2004 race - with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry as the Democratic nominee - many Democrats believe that if Clinton is the party's standard-bearer in 2008 the state once again will be competitive.282
The Pew Hispanic Center study shows Hispanic voters represented only 1.3 percent of voters in Arkansas during the 2006 gubernatorial race. Pew estimates Arkansas has about 35,000 registered Hispanic voters -- representing about 1.7 percent of the state's total voter pool.
Across the state, northwest Arkansas' congressional district has the largest Hispanic population of more than 75,000 people, about 10 percent of the total population of the district. However, the study estimates only a fourth of that population is eligible to vote in a district home to poultry plants and other jobs attracting immigrants from Mexico and Latin America.
Fewer than 1 percent of Arkansas voters in the 2004 election were Hispanic, according to estimates from the Secretary of State's office. Arkansas is home to an estimated 141,000 Hispanics. Studies have concluded that about half of the state's immigrant population lives illegally in the U.S.283
In 2007, Gov. Mike Beebe passed the largest tax cut in Arkansas' history, as shoppers across the state saw the tax drop from 6 cents to 3 cents, an estimated savings of $234 a year for families.284
Arkansas is the smallest state between the Mississippi River and the Pacific. In population, it’s the smallest state in the South. Arkansas is the land left over when Louisiana and Missouri were carved out of the Louisiana Purchase and what is now Oklahoma was fenced off as Indian Territory.
Arkansas prides itself on being a traditional values state—58% of adults are married, higher than any other state except Idaho and Utah, but the divorce rate has also been higher than average. In 2004 voters passed an amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage and civil unions by 74%- 26%.285
63 Food products are the state's largest employing sector, with lumber and wood products a close second. Arkansas is also a leader in the production of cotton, rice, and soybeans. It also has the country's only active diamond mine.286
64 Arizona Primary – Latest Poll Closing 9:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates ARIZONA Closed Only 56 in the primary 53 in the primary primary registered 37 district level 24 district level party 19 statewide 26 statewide members can vote. 11 unpledged super-delegates 3 RNC member delegates
Total: 67 Total: 53
Pledged district-level Pledged district-level and delegates are allocated statewide delegates are both according to the primary vote winner-take-all by statewide in each CD, with a 15% vote. AP says the 3 state threshold. Statewide party delegates (Chair, delegates are allocated National Committeeman, and according to the statewide Committeewoman) are also vote, with a 15% threshold. bound to the statewide winner for one ballot.
Arizona Arizona, McCain’s home state, should be an easy state for McCain. 287
Clinton has been leading in the polls, but the race has been tightening lately.
Arizona History In 1960, at the Democratic National Convention in Los Angeles, a band of Arizona Democrats, including Stewart Udall and Bill Mahoney, stunned the state party's establishment, then aligned with Lyndon Baines Johnson, by swinging the state's delegation to John F. Kennedy.288
In 1972 Arizona had an early Democratic primary, the improbable winner of which was Republican-turned-Democrat New York Mayor John Lindsay.289
In 1980, Arizona's party-run primary swung the delegation to Edward Kennedy against incumbent President Carter.290
Since its establishment in 1992, Arizona's primary has been an all-Republican show.291
A 1995 law passed by the GOP for the GOP set the state-funded 1996 primary on a date that everyone knew the Arizona Dems couldn't share. Sen. John McCain and then-Gov. Fife Symington designed it to help presidential contender Phil Gramm. Symington argued at the time that the cost of the election was little to pay for the national exposure.
The Democrats couldn't play because their national party honchos banned primaries before March 5 -- except for Iowa, New Hampshire and Maine, of course. For two presidential cycles, state Dems held their primary later and paid for it themselves. The state paid for the GOP beauty pageants.292
In 2000, McCain had irritated local Republicans enough that Governor Jane Hull and other party leaders endorsed George W. Bush. McCain, however, won a solid victory in his home state in the February primary, but it was overshadowed by his victory the same day in Michigan.293
65 In 2000, McCain beat Bush 60 percent to 36 percent in the Republican race, while then-Vice President Al Gore defeated former Sen. Bill Bradley 78 percent to 19 percent on the Democratic side.294
Arizona Democrats ran and paid for their own primary in March 2000, because the state’s February date was outside the “window” permitted by national Democratic Party rules. They allowed voting by Internet, and about 35,000 Arizonans mouse-clicked their choices; another 20,000 voted by mail; still others voted by computer or paper ballot at the polls.295
In 2003, Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano vetoed Republican-backed legislation that would have eliminated Arizona's presidential primary. The veto followed her previous decision to move up the date of Arizona's presidential primary to Feb. 3, 2004.
The Democratic Party hasn't participated and instead has held caucuses in March because national party rules barred choosing before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. The Democratic National Committee has since changed its rules.296
2004 was the first state-supervised Democratic presidential primary in Arizona history.297
In 2004 a regular Democratic primary was held one week after New Hampshire, on February 3, the same day as Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina. John Kerry and Wesley Clark were the only candidates who targeted the state, and Kerry got 43% of the vote to Clark’s 26%. Only 603,000 voted in a state of 5.6 million people.298
In 2004, one of six voters in Arizona was a Latino.299
In 2006 Arizona Democrats made a bid to have their state designated as the site for a caucus election soon after Iowa. But in August 2006 the Democratic National Committee picked Nevada instead.300
The Arizona primary has been moved up three weeks from Feb. 26th. Governor Napolitano, a Democrat, believes Arizonans will benefit from having an early primary because candidates will be more likely to visit the state and learn about immigration, water and growth issues of concern in the state. 301
Arizona law prohibits independents from voting in the Democratic or GOP presidential primary races. So, thousands of Arizona voters apparently switched to the Democratic and Republican parties to be able to vote in the Feb. 5 presidential primary. But the numbers may be too small to influence an election much. The Arizona Secretary of State's Office reported Jan. 22 that since October, registrations statewide have increased by 19,759 for Democrats and 15,760 for Republicans. At the same time, independent voters, whose numbers have grown steadily for years, declined by 6,276, and Libertarians fell by 927.
The figures don't show directly the number who switched to Democrat or Republican to vote on Feb. 5. But if the number is similar to the net decline in independents and Libertarians, it would represent less than 0.5 percent of the 1.9 million registered Republicans and Democrats. (Republicans make up 38 percent of registered voters, Democrats 33 percent and independents 28 percent. 302
Clinton and Obama have been spending significant time and money in Arizona. Governor Napolitano, a democrat, has chosen to endorse Obama. Arizona’s 56 delegates at stake in the Democratic race rank it in the middle of Democratic contests that day.
The Democratic activity is in stark contrast to that of Republican front-runners, who are far less active in the home state of presidential candidate and McCain. McCain's competitors may view
66 the state as a sure win for him, and the Republicans are tight on campaign money. The candidates are concentrating their spending on states that have far more delegates. 303
Latino voters could play a key role in Arizona's primary if the race is close. During the fall, Clinton held a commanding lead among that growing segment of voters. A Behavior Research Poll in September said that three-fourths of Latino voters planned to vote in the Democratic primary and that 57 percent favored Clinton. Obama was second, with 18 percent. However, recently, the former members of the Arizona presidential-steering committee for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, said Obama's political views on education, health care and immigration will best benefit Arizona's Latino community. Richardson dropped out of the race after the New Hampshire primary. 304
ARIZONA PRIMARY RESULTS
No Presidential Primaries in AZ in 1992.
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Forbes (R) 115,962 (33%) Dole (R) 102,980 (30%) Buchanan (R) 95,742 (28%) Alexander (R) 24,765 (7%) Other 3,179 (1%) Keyes (R) 2,790 (1%) Lugar (R) 2,064 (1%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary McCain (R) 193,708 (60%) Bush (R) 115,115 (36%) Keyes (R) 11,500 (4%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 67,582 (78%) Bradley (D) 16,383 (19%) Other 2,797 (3%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 101,809 (43%) Clark (D) 63,256 (26%) Dean (D) 33,555 (14%) Edwards (D) 16,596 (7%) Lieberman (D) 15,906 (7%) Other 3,896 (2%)
Profile of Arizona About 64 percent of Arizona’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, the same as the national rate.
67 Arizona’s 2007 population of 6.3 million includes a lower percentage of the non-Hispanic white- alone population than the nation as a whole, and a percentage of Hispanics that is approximately double the national rate, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
Selected Characteristics Arizona U.S. Median age 34.6 36.4 Women 50.0% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 59.7% 66.4% Black alone 3.8% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 29.2% 14.8% Median household income $47,265 $48,451 Foreign born 15.1% 12.5% Persons below poverty 14.2% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 25.5% 27.0% Median home value $236,500 $185,200305
Barry Goldwater helped to make Arizona Republican, the only state to vote Republican for president in every election from 1952 to 1992. It is one of the relatively few states with more registered Republicans than Democrats.306
Statistics show there are more than one million registered Republicans in Arizona, some 904,000 registered Democrats, almost 18,000 registered Libertarians and around 748,000 voters registered as Independents or members of unrecognized parties.307
Although Bill Clinton carried Arizona in 1996 and came close in 1992, the state has generally tilted heavily Republican, except that Democrats have won the governorship in four of the last eight elections.
Also, Democrats picked up two House seats in 2006, leaving the delegation evenly split, and they also reduced the Republican edge in the state House to 33–26 as Napolitano was reelected by a 63%-35% margin.308
Political dynamics reflect conflicts between Maricopa county and the rest of the state more than any party differences. Republican strength is centered in the Phoenix area, but the party also receives support from rural, conservative “Pinto” Democrats. Democratic factions continue to receive support in Flagstaff, Tucson, and some mining communities and among traditionally Democratic Mexican Americans and African Americans.309
Arizona remains one of the most progressive states in the country when it comes to electing women to office. The state has the fifth-highest number of women in its Legislature nationally, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. Arizona is the state that produced Sandra Day O'Connor and elected Isabella Greenway to Congress in 1933.310
In 1998 it became the first state to elect women to all its top five statewide downballot offices and in 2002 and 2006 it elected Democrat Janet Napolitano as governor. 311
By law, voters who have declined to choose a recognized political party can't cast ballots during the state's Presidential Preference Election, which determines the delegates candidates receive for nomination as their party's candidate.312
Today, Arizona has one of the largest U.S. Indian populations; more than 14 tribes are represented on 20 reservations.313
68 Maricopa County had the biggest numerical increase in the Hispanic population (71,000) since July 2005.314
Arizona is the sixth largest state in the country in terms of area (113,999 square miles).315 Arizona is one of the Four Corners states, named because the borders of four states meet at a single point. It's the only spot at which you can stand in four U.S. states at the same time.316
Arizona is one of America’s boom states, having grown from 700,000 people at the end of World War II to 3.6 million in 1990, and then to 6.2 million in 2006. Maricopa County, which has 61% of the state’s people, is the fourth most populous county in the nation.317
Arizona has a $9.2 billion agricultural industry. Arizona ranks second in the U.S. in head lettuce, leaf lettuce, romaine lettuce, cauliflower and broccoli production. Arizona has 7,500 farms and ranches across the state. Beef is Arizona's leading agricultural product.318
Historically, Arizona's economy was fueled by the "five C's": copper, cotton, cattle, citrus and climate. Arizona produces two-thirds of the nation’s copper. High technology emerged as an economic force in the 1990s.319 Phoenix has been attracting high-tech industries since Motorola built a research center for military electronics there in 1948. Big employers include Honeywell, Raytheon, Motorola, Intel, Avnet and Northrop Grumman. Defense industries are important here: Arizona ranked number six in Defense Department contracts in 2006.320
Arizona's economy faced challenges in 2007, including a spike in foreclosures and too many houses on the market depressed prices on existing and new homes.321 The housing market continues to slow in metropolitan Phoenix, but the area still ranks high in the nation for home building.322
Arizona's unemployment rate surged in December 2007, rising more than half a point to 4.7%, its highest level in 2 1/2 years.323
More than 2.2 million Arizonans went without health insurance at some point during the past year, according to the U.S. Census. Arizona ranked third nationally, behind Texas and New Mexico, in the percentage of people under 65 years old who were uninsured.324
The number of Arizonans filing for bankruptcy protection last year was up more than 60 percent over 2006, according to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court of Arizona.325
Anger at the flood of illegals contributed to the passage of ballot propositions. Proposition 200 in 2004 denied certain welfare benefits and requiring government employees to report illegals, and in 2006, Proposition 102 denied punitive damages to illegals. Proposition 103 declared English Arizona’s official language, and Proposition 300, denied illegals in-state tuition at state colleges, state child care aid and adult literacy classes.326
In July 2007, Gov. Napolitano signed into law a proposal that prohibits people from hiring illegal immigrants, and requires all businesses to verify the employment eligibility of workers through a federal database.327
Arizonans generally support the concept of local police officers enforcing federal immigration laws, but their support is fractured deeply along political and racial lines.328
69 Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses – Latest Poll Closing 9:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates COLORADO Closed Only 55 in the caucus 43 in the caucus caucus registered 36 district level 21 district level party members 19 statewide 22 statewide can vote in their own 16 super-delegates 3 RNC members party's caucus. Total: 71 Total: 46
Pledged district-level Unpledged delegates delegates are allocated (district-level and statewide) according to the caucus run as individuals not officially results in each CD, with a 15 allocated to a presidential percent threshold. Statewide candidate. delegates are allocated proportionally to the preferences of participants at the state convention, with a 15 percent threshold.
Colorado Obama and Clinton have been close in recent polls in the state. Romney led in the most recent Republican poll.
Romney made a campaign stop in Denver on Feb. 1 ahead of Colorado's presidential caucuses. Romney's visit caps a busy political week for Colorado. Obama visited on Wednesday, as did former President Clinton. Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul also planned to be in Colorado on Feb. 1.329
Enthusiastic political novices have been donning candidate buttons and packing conference centers, libraries, homes and churches to learn how Feb. 5 is going to work. That a caucus system is complex - how many delegates get to go to county, state and the national conventions depends on the party - hasn't seemed to turn off people.
A Denver Post poll found that 48 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of Republicans were planning to caucus. Among those Democrats, 59 percent said it would be their first time. And among Republicans, 64 percent said this year would be their first.
In Colorado, both parties have asked that the presidential preference poll - among Democrats it is usually a show of hands, among Republicans it can be a secret ballot. Because Democrats require candidates to get at least 15 percent of the vote, there can be two polls taken. The second vote, when one candidate is eliminated, is usually rowdy.330
Colorado History Colorado's first presidential primary was in 1992.331 Before 1992, Colorado held caucuses.332
In 1992 Jerry Brown won the Democratic primary here, with 29 percent of the vote to 27 percent for Bill Clinton.333 41% of Democrats went to the polls to hand Brown a victory. With no contest on the Republican side, 32% of the party's voters still went to the polls.334
70 Colorado has had an early March presidential primary since 1992, when Brown won it. It has not attracted much attention since.335
Colorado's presidential primary in 1992 cost as much as $ 10 per voter, prompting some election officials to question whether the expense is worthwhile.336
In Colorado in 2000, the March 10 presidential primary was dubbed the 'Why Bother' primary because both Bush and Democrat Al Gore had secured their party's nominations before the state's voters went to the polls.337
In 2000, Gore and Bush won uncontested victories in the Colorado primary. The 2000 Colorado primary voter turnout was under 20 percent, and the cost was $1.8 million.338
In 1992, 1996 and 2000, Colorado held statewide presidential preference primaries, and results were quickly publicized. But they were expensive and were abolished, during a budget crunch, before the 2004 election.339 In 2003, to save money, the legislature voted to eliminate its presidential primary in 2004.340
Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry easily won Colorado's Democratic caucus preference polls in 2004 capturing 61 percent of the vote. Party officials said 23 percent remained uncommitted in the nonbinding April 13 poll. Dennis Kucinich received 12 percent.341
In 2007, the legislature passed a law leaving it to the major parties to decide when to hold 2008 caucuses and both selected February 5.342
COLORADO PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 132,100 (68%) Buchanan (R) 58,753 (30%) Other 4,837 (3%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Brown (D) 69,073 (29%) Clinton (D) 64,470 (27%) Tsongas (D) 61,360 (26%) Kerrey (D) 29,572 (12%) Harkin (D) 5,866 (2%) Uncommitted 5,356 (2%) Other 3,946 (2%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 108,123 (44%) Buchanan (R) 53,376 (22%) Forbes (R) 51,592 (21%) Alexander (R) 24,184 (10%) Keyes (R) 9,052 (4%) Lugar (R) 1,603 (1%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary
71 Clinton (D) 48,454 (89%) LaRouche (D) 5,981 (11%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 116,897 (65%) McCain (R) 48,996 (27%) Keyes (R) 11,871 (7%) Other 1,694 (1%) Forbes (R) 1,197 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 63,384 (71%) Bradley (D) 20,663 (23%) Other 3,867 (4%) LaRouche (D) 821 (1%)
April 13, 2004 Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (61%) Kucinich (D) (13%) Dean (D) (2%) Edwards (D) (1%) Clark (D) (0%) Other (22%)
Profile of Colorado Colorado is one of the nation’s top-10 fastest growing states. Its 2007 population of 4.9 million grew 13 percent between 2000 and 2007, almost double the nation’s growth rate of 7.2 percent during that same time period.
Colorado has a higher percentage of both the Hispanic and non-Hispanic white-alone populations than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 68 percent of Colorado’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, a higher rate than the national figure of 64 percent
Selected Characteristics Colorado U.S. Population change: 2000-2007 13.0% 7.2% Median age 35.4 36.4 Women 49.7% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 71.7% 66.4% Black alone 4.1% 12.8% Hispanic 19.7% 14.8% Median household income $52,015 $48,451 Foreign born 10.3% 12.5% Persons below poverty 12.0% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 34.3% 27.0%
72 Median home value $232,900 $185,200343
Through the 1803 Louisiana Purchase from France, engineered by President Thomas Jefferson, the fledgling US acquired a vast area that included what is now most of eastern Colorado. In 1876, President Ulysses Grant issued a proclamation making Colorado the 38th state to join the Union.344
Colorado has also been at the front edge of economic, cultural and political change. It is mostly an urban state: more than half its people live in metropolitan Denver. Colorado’s economy grew robustly in the 1990s and the state attracted well-educated newcomers from around the country, with many from California; it ranked number one in high-tech workers per capita and third in venture capital financing per capita.345
Colorado in 2007 posted its fourth straight year of job gains and saw its unemployment rate dip to the lowest level in six years.346 However, the unemployment rate is rising again, reaching 4.5% in Dec. 2007.
There were 28,960 foreclosures in Colorado in the first nine months of 2007, topping the record 28,435 filings in Colorado in 2006, according to a state report.347
In the last decade the number of Jewish households has grown 41 percent, to 45,400, making Colorado home to the 18th-largest Jewish community in the U.S.348
The conservative and boosterish Colorado of the 1960s was transformed by a wave of liberal young migrants in the 1970s calling for environmental protections.
Democrats held the governorship for 24 years but Republicans held the legislature. In the 1990s, a new wave of migrants—tech-savvy, family-oriented cultural conservatives looking for an environment to prosper—moved Colorado politics to the right. Both of these politically very different communities have some reason to believe that they exemplify the state; elections here can be seen as political contests to determine which one does.349
73 Kansas DEM Caucuses – Latest Poll Closing 9:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates KANSAS Closed Only 32 in the caucus Dem registered 21 district level caucus Dems can 11 statewide participate, but independent 9 super-delegates voters can register as Total: 41 Dems on caucus day. Pledged district-level delegates (GOP caucus are allocated according to the is 2/9). caucus results in each CD with a 15% threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated proportionally in a state convention, with a 15% threshold.
Kansas Obama has built organizations in the six states that are holding caucuses rather than primaries: Kansas, Alaska, North Dakota, Colorado, Minnesota and Idaho. The caucus format, which requires voters to attend meetings to express support for their candidate, plays to the Obama campaign's strength in grass-roots organizing that it honed in the Iowa caucuses.350
A television ad featuring Gov. Kathleen Sebelius for Obama started running Jan. 31 in Kansas, as campaigning picked up before the state's Democratic caucuses. The Sebelius ad started in Wichita the same day Obama's campaign brought former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle to Lawrence. Also, Clinton's campaign announced supporters will participate Feb. 4 night in a 21- state teleconference with her on the eve of Super Tuesday.
Clinton's event Monday night will link at least one site in each of the Super Tuesday states, and Clinton, who is expected to be in New York, will answer a question from each state. The event in Wichita will be at a sports bar; organizers said Kansans could also watch over the Internet or on cable's Hallmark Channel.
While Clinton's campaign opened offices earlier this month in Kansas City, Topeka and Wichita, Obama's organization opened its Lawrence headquarters in October. Obama has 18 paid staffers in Kansas, compared with Clinton's three.
Also, high-profile surrogates have traveled to Kansas for Obama. Daschle met with Obama supporters at Haskell Indian Nations University. Others who have been to the state include Reps. Gwen Moore of Wisconsin and Betty McCollum of Minnesota; U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri attended the El Dorado rally.
Democrats will caucus Tuesday night at 50 sites across the state. At stake are 32 of Kansas' 41 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August in Denver.351
Kansas Primary History Kansas has held just two presidential primaries: 1980 and 1992. Republican Ronald Reagan and Democrat Jimmy Carter won the 1980 party primaries, which saw record voter turnouts. But in
74 1992, when Republican George Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton were runaway winners, the turnout diminished.352
In 1996 the state legislature voted to cancel the April primary and none has been held since.353
Primary elections in 1996, 2000 and 2004 were called off for financial reasons or because the national political races were viewed as uncompetitive.354
As far as the state chairman of the Democratic Party can recall, no candidate from his party has courted delegates in the state since 1960, when John F. Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey and Stuart Symington campaigned here.355
The state's political parties are holding caucuses because the Kansas Legislature didn’t fund a presidential primary.356
KANSAS PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 132,131 (62%) Uncommitted 35,450 (17%) Buchanan (R) 31,494 (15%) Other 10,284 (5%) Duke (R) 3,837 (2%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 82,145 (51%) Tsongas (D) 24,413 (15%) Uncommitted 22,159 (14%) Brown (D) 20,811 (13%) Other 7,568 (5%) Kerry (D) 2,215 (1%) Harkin (D) 940 (1%)
May 6, 2000 Democratic Caucus Gore (D) (96%) Bradley (D) - Other (4%)
March 13, 2004 Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (72%) Kucinich (D) (10%) Edwards (D) (9%) Dean (D) (7%) Clark (D) (1%) Other (2%)
Profile of Kansas About 64 percent of Kansas’ voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, the same as the national rate.
75
Kansas’ 2007 population of 2.8 million includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white- alone population and a lower percentage of Hispanics and blacks than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
Selected Characteristics Kansas U.S. Median age 36.0 36.4 Women 50.4% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 81.1% 66.4% Black alone 6.0% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 8.6% 14.8% Median household income $45,478 $48,451 Foreign born 6.3% 12.5% Persons below poverty 12.4% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 28.6% 27.0% Median home value $114,400 $185,200357
Kansas’ population is increasingly metropolitan. Some 52% of Kansans live in just five counties, which include Kansas City, Lawrence, Topeka and Wichita, and in 84 of the 100 other counties the population declined between 2000 and 2006. A majority of Kansans are in or within easy reach of metropolitan Kansas City, which has a diverse economy that is by no means dependent on farming.
Hispanics are flocking to work in meatpacking factories in towns like Dodge City, Garden City and Liberal, whose populations in 2000 were more than 40% Hispanic and which had pro-immigration marches in April 2006. Hispanics accounted for nearly half of Kansas’s population growth in the 1990s, and 8% of its population in 2005. There is no warrant today for shooting the Kansas scenes in black and white.358
Principal crops grown in Kansas are wheat, sorghum (milo), hay, and corn. Approximately 10 million bushels of wheat are harvested each year in Kansas. Reno, Sumner, and Thomas counties lead the state in wheat production. At least 90% of the land area in Kansas (47 million acres) is devoted to agriculture production. Kansas ranks first in the number of commercial cattle processed with 8.03 million head (1999). Buffalo have made a comeback in Kansas with more than 6,000 head raised on ranches and refuges.359
Kansas' small population, huge geography and decades-old status as a solid red state -- no Democrat has won it in a general election since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 -- have long kept candidates from spending campaigning time and money in the state during the general election. And its status as a late voter in the primary season has kept them from devoting their efforts during the nominating process.360 Kansas remains mostly Republican in the 21st century.
Since the mid-1990s Kansas has had a kind of three-party politics—conservative Republicans versus moderate Republicans versus Democrats. The switch toward the moderate Republicans and the Democrats in 2006 came in the economically vital metropolitan areas of Kansas, where the key swing voters were motivated, as Kansas’s conservative Republican voters have been, by cultural issues. Democrats now hold two of Kansas’s four U.S. House seats, but otherwise the state seems solidly Republican in national politics.361
Foreclosures in Kansas have been buffered by two forces: while other states had home prices skyrocket, Kansas had fairly steady appreciation in the real estate market.Second, the state has some of the most comprehensive regulations for mortgage companies, such as keeping a list of approved mortgage brokers and lenders and conducting routine examines on companies.362
76
Kansas lawmakers say they have no choice but to make illegal immigration a target in 2008, and are pushing tougher laws. A study based on 2005 statistics estimated the state had as many as 70,000 illegal immigrants — a population nearly the size of Lawrence. Kansas is 25th among the states in the percent of its population that is foreign-born.363
Kansas is 31st in the nation in median household income.364
77 Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucuses – Latest Poll Closing 9:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates MINNESOTA Open Registered 72 in the caucus 38 in the caucus caucus voters may 47 district level 24 district level participate in 25 statewide 14 statewide either party's caucus. 16 super-delegates 3 RNC members
Total: 88 Total: 41
Pledged district-level Unpledged delegates (district- delegates are allocated level and statewide) run as according to the caucus individuals not officially results in each CD with a 15% allocated to a presidential threshold. Statewide candidate. delegates are allocated proportionally at a state convention, with a 15% threshold.
Minnesota McCain has opened a strong lead over his Republican rivals in Minnesota, while Clinton has the edge in a tighter race with Obama, according to a new presidential poll from Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute.
Among Republicans, McCain led the field with 41 percent, trailed by former Huckabee with 22 percent and Romney with 17 percent. Giuliani, who quit the race on Wednesday, had 6 percent. McCain's lead outstripped the poll's 5.5 percent margin of error among 317 Republicans polled, and his support was broad.
"He's able to appeal to a lot of different segments of Minnesota Republicans," said Larry Jacobs, who heads the Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, and led the research. The poll shows that Romney's strategy of focusing on the economy isn't working in Minnesota, Jacobs said.
McCain picked up an endorsement Thursday from U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, a popular moderate Republican who represents the state's suburban 3rd District.
Results were murkier for the Democrats. Clinton led with 40 percent, followed by Obama with 33 percent. But the gap separating them was within the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error for the 478 Democratic voters surveyed, and the poll also found 12 percent support who backed Edwards, who dropped out Wednesday.365
Minnesota History Caucuses were adopted in Minnesota after primary voters did not follow the wishes of state political leaders in the in the 1950's.
In 1952, the Republican leaders backed Harold Stassen for the Republican Presidential nomination but tens of thousands of people wrote in their support for Dwight D. Eisenhower, helping propel him to the White House. Four years later, on the Democratic side, party leaders in Minnesota wanted Adlai E. Stevenson to win the nomination, but Minnesota voters favored Estes Kefauver.366
78
On April 7, 1992 Minnesota staged its first Presidential primary since 1956. George H.W. Bush easily beat Buchanan in the Republican primary, but Bill Clinton won only a narrow 31.1% to 30.6% victory over Jerry Brown.
In 1995, Minnesota lawmakers again put off presidential primaries.
In 1996, the Republican presidential race in Minnesota was a low-key affair that attracted no national media and few candidates. Bob Dole whipped Pat Buchanan in a nonbinding presidential poll of Minnesota Republican precinct caucuses, dashing one of Buchanan's last best hopes of resisting a national sweep.367
In the 2000 caucuses, Bush easily defeated McCain 63% to 17% and Gore easily defeated Bradley 74% to 14%.368
In 2004, nearly 55,000 people flocked to Minnesota's Democratic caucuses on a night in which Sen. John Kerry clinched his party's presidential nomination. Republicans, even with President Bush the unquestioned nominee, reported between 21,000 and 27,000 people at theirs.369
Kerry defeated Edwards 51% to 27% in the 2004 Democratic caucuses.370
In general elections, Minnesota has the longest consecutive streak of voting Democratic for president of any state: the last time it voted Republican in a general election was in 1972, and even then it gave Richard Nixon his lowest percentage margin over George McGovern.371
MINNESOTA PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 84,841 (64%) Buchanan (R) 32,094 (24%) Other 11,723 (9%) Uncommitted 4,098 (3%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 63,584 (31%) Brown (D) 62,474 (31%) Tsongas (D) 43,588 (21%) Other 17,890 (9%) Uncommitted 11,366 (6%) Harkin (D) 4,077 (2%) Kerrey (D) 1,191 (1%)
March 11, 2000 Democratic Caucus Gore (D) (74%) Bradley (D) (14%) Other (12%)
March 7, 2000 Republican Caucus Bush (R) (63%) Keyes (R) (20%)
79 McCain (R) (17%) Forbes (R) (0%) Other (0%)
March 2, 2004 Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (51%) Edwards (D) (27%) Kucinich (D) (17%) Dean (D) (2%) Clark (D) (0%) Other (3%)
Profile of Minnesota About 79 percent of Minnesota’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, well above the national rate of 64 percent.
Minnesota’s 2007 population of 5.2 million includes a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites and a lower percentage of Hispanics and blacks than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
Selected Characteristics Minnesota U.S. Median age 36.8 36.4 Women 50.3% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 85.9% 66.4% Black 4.5% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 3.8% 14.8% Median household income $54,023 $48,451 Foreign born 6.6% 12.5% Persons below poverty 9.8% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 30.4% 27.0% Median home value $208,200 $185,200372
Minnesota, which became the 32nd state on May 11, 1858, received its name from the Dakota (Sioux) word for the Mississippi's major tributary in the state, which means “Sky-Tinted Waters.” 373
Near the geographic center of North America, it is bordered on the north by the Canadian provinces of Manitoba and Ontario, on the west by North Dakota and South Dakota, on the south by Iowa, and on the east by Wisconsin and Lake Superior.
The state’s major industries are tourism, agriculture, computers and services, healthcare and medical equipment, forest and forestry products, printing and publishing.
Minneapolis' famed skyway system connecting 52 blocks (nearly five miles) of downtown makes it possible to live, eat, work and shop without going outside.
Minnesota has one recreational boat per every six people, more than any other state. 2.3 million individuals in the state go fishing. Minnesota has 90,000 miles of shoreline, more than California, Florida and Hawaii combined.374 The state is on the shore of Lake Superior, which is
80 the biggest of the Great Lakes. Minnesota is also the starting point of the world’s third largest river, the Mississippi.375
In Minnesota, young voters emulate their elders in outpacing their counterparts across the nation in turnout. Exit polls have consistently shown young voter turnout here has been higher than nationally. Four years ago, Minnesota led the nation, with an impressive 69 percent of its residents younger than 30 turning out to vote.376
On average annually, Minnesota has trailed the nation in job growth since 2004.377 Minnesota lost 2,300 jobs in December 2007, capping a string of declines, 23,000 jobs in all, over the last six months of 2007. That's the worst run of Minnesota job declines since the last U.S. recession in 2001. It also wiped away all of the job growth in the first half of 2007.
The housing bust and turmoil in financial markets undercut residential and commercial construction. Residential construction employment over the 12 months fell 14.1 percent. Building materials jobs dropped 8.9 percent and construction jobs other than housing fell 8.6 percent.378
The number of foreclosures in Minnesota doubled in 2007. Home sale prices dipped in 2007 for the first time in at least 20 years and are expected to remain flat or fall slightly in the coming year.379
81 New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary – Latest Poll Closing 9:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates NEW Closed Only 26 in the primary MEXICO Dem party- registered 17 district level run primary Democrats 9 statewide can vote in their primary. 12 super-delegates
Total: 38
Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to the primary vote in each CD with a 15% threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.
New Mexico The little polling available indicates a competitive race for the Democrats.
Clinton dispatched her husband to beat the bushes for votes in Albuquerque and Santa Fe on Jan. 31. Obama, sent a Kennedy to drum up Obama votes in New Mexico as the race toward Tuesday's Democratic presidential caucus here enters its final days.
Obama and Clinton will visit New Mexico themselves in advance of voting here Tuesday: Obama was scheduled to be in New Mexico on Feb. 1, and Hillary Clinton is to stop in on Feb. 2.380
State Democratic Party Chairman Brian Coln said this week he anticipates 30,000 to 40,000 of New Mexico's 532,000-plus registered Democrats to show up at caucus locations on the Super Tuesday compared to more than 100,000 last time. Coln said he thinks the departure of NM Gov. Bill Richardson from the 2008 presidential race will have a big impact on voter participation in New Mexico on Tuesday.
Coln also said the Clinton and Obama campaigns aren't tossing around nearly as much cash for New Mexico get-outthe-vote efforts as the presidential candidates did in 2004.381
New Mexico History New Mexico Republicans have not had much luck with their state's presidential primary. It was created in 1972, just in time to elect the only delegate to vote against the renomination of President Richard M. Nixon. (The vote went to GOP Rep. Paul N. McCloskey Jr. of California, who was waging a quixotic anti-war challenge to Nixon in the primaries.)
The primary was abandoned in 1976, just in time to miss the party's hottest nominating battle of the last quarter-century. Since its revival in 1980, the state's primary has seen a succession of contests that were decided long before New Mexico voted in June.382
New Mexico followed the scripted outcome as Clinton and Dole easily won in the 1996 primary election.383
82 In 2000, New Mexico was one of five states holding presidential primaries even though Gore and Bush clinched their nominations in early March. New Mexicans went with Gore and Bush by large margins.384
In 2004 New Mexico held Democratic caucuses on Feb. 3. Kerry won a solid victory winning 43% of the vote followed by Clark with 20%, Dean with 16%, and Edwards with 11%.
NEW MEXICO PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 55,522 (64%) Uncommitted 23,574 (27%) Buchanan (R) 7,871 (9%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 95,933 (53%) Uncommitted 35,269 (19%) Brown (D) 30,705 (17%) Tsongas (D) 11,315 (6%) Other 4,988 (3%) Harkin (D) 3,2339 (2%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 53,300 (76%) Buchanan (R) 5,679 (8%) Forbes (R) 3,987 (6%) Alexander (R) 2,676 (4%) Other 2,557 (4%) Keyes (R) 2,265 (3%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 109,595 (90%) Uncommitted (D) 11,767 (10%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 62,161 (83%) McCain (R) 7,619 (10%) Keyes (R) 4,850 (6%) Other 600 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 98,715 (75%) Bradley (D) 27,204 (21%) Other 3,298 (3%) LaRouche (D) 3,063 (2%)
83 February 3, 2004 Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (43%) Clark (D) (20%) Dean (D) (16%) Edwards (D) (11%) Kucinich (D) (5%) Other (5%)
Profile of New Mexico About 64 percent of New Mexico’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, which is not statistically different from the rate for the nation as a whole.
New Mexico has a large Hispanic or Latino population (44.0 percent) among its nearly 2 million residents. New Mexico is one of the top four states in the country in terms of people living below poverty level (18.5 percent), according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. New Mexico’s Republican primary is June 3.
Selected Characteristics New Mexico U.S. Median age 35.3 36.4 Women 50.6% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 42.8% 66.4% Black alone 2.5% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 44.0% 14.8% Median household income $40,629 $48,451 Foreign born 10.1% 12.5% Persons below poverty 18.5% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 25.3% 27.0% Median home value $141,200 $185,200385
At its northwestern corner, New Mexico joins Arizona, Utah, and Colorado in the only four-way meeting of states in the nation. Its 121,593 square miles make it the fifth largest of the U.S. states.
New Mexico, traditionally rural, has joined the national trend toward urbanization. Nearly one-half of the population now lives in the metropolitan areas of Albuquerque, Santa Fe, and Las Cruces, with some one-third in the Albuquerque area alone.
New Mexico relies heavily on the export of raw materials and on federal expenditures for programs of no certain permanence, and is subject to shifting demands from outside the state. Government spending accounts for nearly one-fourth of the state's economy.386
Though it became a state in 1912, the Indian, Spanish, and Anglo peoples who have been co- existing here for the last 400 years have come to weave their traditions and views. Each of the twenty-two pueblos and tribes has their own sovereign lands and governments and 38% of the population is Hispanic.387
Hispanics account for about 43 percent of New Mexico's population - the largest percentage of any state, but does not have a free-standing governmental agency focusing on issues of concern to the Hispanic community.388
84 More than half of all children in New Mexico are Hispanic, yet the percentage of Hispanic children living in poverty is higher at 30 percent than for New Mexico children in general, 25 percent, according to New Mexico Voices for Children Research Director Gerry Bradley.389
New Mexico has a long history as a bellwether in presidential politics. The state has voted for every winning candidate since it won statehood in 1912, save in 1976, when it backed Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter. And it’s one of the most competitive states in the nation: President Bush narrowly carried the state in 2004 after losing it by 366 votes in 2000.390
Minerals are the state's richest natural resource, and New Mexico is one of the U.S. leaders in output of uranium and potassium salts. The principal manufacturing industries include food products, chemicals, transportation equipment, lumber, electrical machinery, and stone-clay-glass products.391
The poverty rate in New Mexico, unlike the nation as a whole, remained unchanged last year and it continued to rank among the worst in the country.18.5 percent of all people in New Mexico lived below the federal poverty level in 2006.392
85 New York Primary – Latest Poll Closing 9:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates NEW Closed Only 232 in the primary 101 in the primary YORK primary registered 151 district level 87 district level party members 81 statewide 11 statewide may vote in their own 49 super-delegates 3 RNC members party's primary. Total: 281 Total: 101
Pledged district-level All delegates (district-level, delegates are allocated statewide and RNC according to the primary vote members) are winner-take-all in each CD with a 15% by statewide vote. threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.
New York Clinton enjoys a home state advantage in New York, where she was re-elected to the Senate in 2006 with 67 percent of the vote. Even so, Obama is competing actively in the state in hopes of peeling off delegates. His campaign is focusing on four largely black congressional districts in New York City, and will begin broadcasting television ads there this week.393
With Giuliani bowing out, New York is McCain's to lose -- a lot of delegates and winner-take all.
The state is in the country's most expensive media market, so it may make sense for Romney to put his resources elsewhere in an effort to cobble together wins in smaller caucus states.
Giuliani's support -- and withdrawal -- will significantly benefit McCain, who recently overtook the ex-mayor in New York polling.
McCain's national security experience -- and resolve to win wars in Iraq and against terrorism -- will play well in the state of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. He runs strongest in the conservative upstate region around Rochester and Syracuse.
That's the region where most Republican primary votes are concentrated; New York City accounts for only 500,000 of the state's roughly 3 million registered Republicans. 394
New York Primary History For years New York had boss politics, and it never had a presidential primary until 1968.395
New York's ethnically variegated Democratic electorate has been comfortable with traditional, New Deal-style politicians. Henry M. Jackson won more delegates than anyone else in New York in 1976; Edward M. Kennedy won easily in 1980, as did Walter F. Mondale in 1984 and Michael S. Dukakis in 1988.396
The state's primary has mattered a great deal at times, even when it fell later in the year. In 1992, Bill Clinton called his victory in the bitterly fought New York primary a ''turning point'' on his road to the White House.397
86 However, on the Democratic side, the 1996 presidential primary fizzled to an end, as l Gore swamped Bradley, in a state where he, too, once thought he had a real opportunity to derail the candidates backed by the party establishment398
Turnout is typically low. Democratic turnout was 1.1 million in 2000, well below the peak of 1.5 million in 1988, when Mayor Ed Koch’s shrill support of Al Gore won him few votes as Michael Dukakis beat Jesse Jackson; on March 7, 2000, Gore beat Bill Bradley by a 2–1 margin.
As for the Republican primary, the rules for qualifying for the ballot are so convoluted that no one but party insiders can master them; there were no contests here in the 1980s and Steve Forbes qualified in 1996 only after spending $1 million.
In 2000 Republican state Chairman William Powers maneuvered to keep John McCain off the ballot, to give an uncontested victory to Bush, Governor George Pataki’s candidate. But McCain went to court and got on the ballot.
Voting was limited to registered Republicans, and McCain did not have the appeal here he showed in New England; he carried affluent parts of Manhattan and the suburbs, but Bush won just about everywhere else.399
Voters voted for delegates, not presidential candidates; Bush delegates got 50% of the vote, McCain delegates 44%. It was the state's first contested Republican presidential primary since 1976.400
The importance of the New York primary has varied in recent years. In 2004, Howard Dean had already withdrawn from the race by the time Senator John Kerry won New York's Democratic primary in March. 401 In 2004 New York’s Democrats voted on March 2, the last day on which the race for the nomination was securely contested; Kerry prevailed in every congressional district.402
In recent past elections, New York's vote had little impact on nominations because it came late in the primary season. The later primary also led to low voter turnouts. In 2004, only 7.2 percent of Americans voters participated in the presidential primary. In New York state, that number fell to 4.6 percent.403
New York’s primary was moved from March to February this year. Governor Spitzer says the move will help ensure that New York's "large and diverse population" will be influential in choosing presidential candidates for the 2008 election. New York state's primary is early enough to make residents' votes really count. Plus, there were, for a time, two candidates based in New York: Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Rodham Clinton.404 Giuliani has recently dropped out of the race, but home state Sen. Clinton is expected to generate excitement in the state this year.
Republicans run a winner-takes-all primary. The candidate who receives the most votes in New York state wins all of the state's delegates at the national convention. New York has the third- largest Republican delegation in the nation, with 101 delegates, outnumbered only by California (173) and Texas (140). Florida had 114 delegates, but the Republican National Committee cut that number in half to penalize the state for scheduling its primary before Feb. 5.
Democrats run a "dual primary" or a "proportional primary," in which several candidates can win delegates. Delegates are awarded proportionally, based on the number of votes each candidate receives in each congressional district. New York's Democratic delegation is the nation's second- largest, consisting of 281 delegates.405
NEW YORK PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary
87 Clinton (D) 412,349 (50%) Tsongas (D) 288,330 (29%) Brown (D) 264,278 (26%) Other 20,087 (2%) Harkin (D) 11,535 (1%) Kerrey (D) 11,147 (1%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 599,748 (55%) Forbes (R) 325,211 (30%) Buchanan (R) 163,365 (15%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 1,102,850 (51%) McCain (R) 937,655 (43%) Keyes (R) 71,196 (3%) Forbes (R) 49,817 (2%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 639,417 (66%) Bradley (D) 326,038 (33%) LaRouche (D) 9,008 (1%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 437,754 (61%) Edwards (D) 143,960 (20%) Sharpton (D) 57,456 (8%) Kucinich (D) 36,680 (5%) Dean (D) 20,471 (3%) Other 19,312 (3%)
Profiles of New York About 60 percent of New York’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election. The national rate was 64 percent.
New York’s 2007 population of more than 19 million has a lower percentage of non-Hispanic whites and a higher percentage of blacks and Hispanics than the population as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
Selected Characteristics New York U.S. Median age 37.3 36.4 Women 51.5% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 60.5% 66.4% Black alone 17.4% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 16.3% 14.8% Median household income $51,384 $48,451
88 Foreign born 21.6% 12.5% Persons below poverty 14.2% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 31.2% 27.0% Median home value $303,400 $185,200406
In the first half of the twentieth century, New York politics was a battle between the Democratic city, with more than half the state’s population then, and Republican Upstate. Jewish voters, concentrated in the city and moored to neither party, provided critical swing votes. In the post- World War II period, the suburbs grew and tended to produce small Republican majorities.
Today the picture is different. Large numbers of Jewish and black voters have turned Westchester from a Republican to a Democratic county; Nassau County voters threw out a corrupt and high-spending Republican regime and the county leans Democratic.
The future of one-party politics in New York depends on the performance of Gov. Spitzer—and on whether the Republicans nominate a presidential candidate more in harmony with New York’s tastes than George W. Bush.407
NY State has not produced a presidential nominee - or a president - since the 1940s, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt won a fourth term in 1944. Most analysts thought Hillary Clinton would win against Giuliani in New York, which is heavily Democratic and has not voted Republican for president since Ronald Reagan ran for reelection in 1984. Now Clinton is the only New Yorker left in the race.
Upstate New York has large rural areas and is more conservative - upstaters tend to be very suspicious of New York City politicians, believing they will ignore the concerns of the less- populated parts of the state.408 Upstate’s population actually declined from 2000 to 2006, something that has happened in only one state, North Dakota; 27 of 50 counties lost population and only one, Saratoga, gained more than 4%.409
Though rich in delegates, New York is a hard place to campaign: It's big and demographically diverse, including large blocs of black, Hispanic and Jewish voters.410
In 2007, Gov. Spitzer abandoned his plan to issue driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, saying that opposition is just too overwhelming to move forward with such a policy.411 72 percent of voters in a Siena College poll said they were opposed to the governor's driver's licenses plan, while 22 percent of those polled supported the plan.412
Existing as a colony of Great Britain for over a century, New York declared its independence on July 9, 1776, becoming one of the original 13 states of the Federal Union. The next year, on April 20, 1777, New York's first constitution was adopted. New York City became the first capital of the new nation, where President George Washington was inaugurated on April 30, 1789. In following years, New York's economic and industrial growth made appropriate the title "The Empire State," an expression possibly originated by George Washington in 1784.
The term "The Big Apple" was coined by touring jazz musicians of the 1930s who used the slang expression "apple" for any town or city. Therefore, to play New York City is to play the big time - The Big Apple.413
Until the 1960s New York was the country's leading state in nearly all population, cultural, and economic indexes, displaced by California beginning in the middle of that decade. The distinction between upstate and downstate is normally along political lines—upstate, conservative; downstate, liberal. Political differences are matched by social differences. Downstate is divided between New York City and the suburbs, and within the city differences between the boroughs are important.414
89
The principal industries in the state are printing and publishing, industrial machinery and equipment, electronic equipment, and instruments. New York City is a leader in manufacturing, foreign trade, commerce and banking, book and magazine publishing, and theatrical production.
John F. Kennedy International Airport is one of the busiest airports in the world, and the city is also home to the New York Stock Exchange, the largest in the world. The printing and publishing industry is the city's largest manufacturing employer, with the apparel industry second.
Nearly all the rest of the state's manufacturing is done on Long Island, along the Hudson River north to Albany, and through the Mohawk Valley, Central New York, and Southern Tier regions to Buffalo.415 The portion of work force represented by labor unions in 2006 was 24.4 percent, behind only Hawaii (24.7 percent).416
Tourism was a $46.6 billion industry in NY State in 2006 - 7.2% increase over 2005 and the third strong year of growth, accounting for 740,000 direct and indirect jobs - just under 7 percent of total employment statewide.417
90 Idaho DEM Caucus – Latest Poll Closing 10:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates IDAHO Open Registered 18 in the caucus Dem voters can 12 district level caucus participate in 6 statewide either party's caucus. (GOP 5 super-delegates primary is 5/27). Total: 23
Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to the caucus results in each CD, with a 15% threshold. Statewide delegates are allocated proportionally at the state convention, with a 15% threshold.
Idaho Former Idaho Gov. Cecil Andrus endorsed Obama on Jan. 31 for the Democratic presidential nomination, saying the U.S. senator from Illinois reminds him of John F. Kennedy. Obama is to speak Feb. 2 morning at Boise State University.
Meanwhile, Bethine Church, widow of former Idaho Democratic Sen. Frank Church, on Thursday endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.
Obama has five campaign field offices in Idaho and has also picked up endorsements from other Democratic lawmakers, including Walt Minnick, Rand Lewis and Larry Grant, all of whom have announced campaigns for the 1st District U.S. House primary in May.
Clinton has an Internet site to cover Idaho, but lists no events here, other than Tuesday's caucus. Her absence underscores the relative insignificance of Idaho in the party's nominating process, said Jasper LiCalzi, a professor of political economy at the College of Idaho in Caldwell. "She's just invisible," he said.
Asked why Clinton hasn't focused on Idaho, Kathleen Strand, a campaign spokeswoman in Fairfax, Va., said the senator is pleased with the grassroots support she's gotten here.
Obama's Idaho presence, on the other hand, is a sign that he's fighting for every delegate he can get as part of a strategy of concentrating on traditionally Republican states like Idaho to balance out places like California and Minnesota where he is trailing Clinton in the polls, LiCalzi said.418
Idaho History Since 1988, Idaho’s presidential primary has been held in late May and has been little noticed elsewhere.419
The last time Idaho had two primary elections in one year was 1976, when Idaho Sen. Frank Church made a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The state joined with Oregon to hold a joint presidential primary in May, and Idaho then held its regular primary election for statewide offices in August.420
91 Al Gore finished a distant fourth in the 1988 Idaho presidential primary. The candidate known in resource-rich Idaho primarily for his environmental protection policies wound up behind not only Michael Dukakis and Jesse Jackson but "None of the Names Shown" on the ballot.421
In 1992, most of the candidates had already dropped out of the race by April 7, when Democrat candidate Bill Clinton had landed 1,279 of the 2,145 delegates he needed to win the party's nomination and this a full seven weeks before Idaho's primary.
In 1992 turnout was very low; just 7.4 percent of Idaho's registered voters cast a Democratic primary ballot for Clinton or Jerry Brown.422
In 2000, the Idaho Democratic presidential contest was made meaningless because Al Gore had wrapped up the nomination.423 Gore got 76 percent and "None of those listed" got 16 percent.424
Kerry, who claimed most of the state's nominating delegates in the February 2004 caucuses, polled 86% in the nonbinding popularity contest. Kucinich was a distant second at 5% with Sharpton and perennial candidate Lyndon LaRouche splitting the rest with none of the above.425
In November 2007, Joey Bristol, Obama’s Idaho field director, said the campaign already has signed up 2,200 Idaho supporters, or nearly half as many people as participated in Idaho's last Democratic presidential caucus in 2004.
Idaho's Democratic caucus this year is Feb. 5, the earliest date ever.
Idaho's primary election isn't until May 27, but the Democratic Party in Idaho holds caucuses to select its presidential nominee. That makes the presidential primary election results, which count for Republicans, a meaningless "beauty contest" for Democrats.426
The last time the state voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in a general election was when the state went to Lyndon Johnson in 1964.427
IDAHO PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 73,297 (64%) Uncommitted 27,038 (23%) Buchanan (R) 15,167 (13%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 27,004 (49%) Uncommitted 16,029 (29%) Brown (D) 9,212 (17%) Other 2,879 (5%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 74,011 (62%) Buchanan (R) 26,461 (22%) Other 12,339 (10%) Keyes (R) 5,904 (5%)
92 1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 35,277 (89%) Uncommitted 4,951 (12%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 116,385 (74%) Keyes (R) 30,263 (19%) None Shown 11,798 (7%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 27,025 (76%) None Shown 5,722 (16%) LaRouche (D) 2,941 (8%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 25,921 (82%) None (D) 2,479 (8%) Kucinich (D) 1,568 (5%) Sharpton (D) 927 (3%) LaRouche (D) 590 (2%)
Profile of Idaho Idaho’s 2007 population of 1.5 million includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white- alone population and a lower percentage of Hispanics and blacks than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 62 percent of Idaho’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, not statistically different from the national rate of 64 percent.
Selected Characteristics Idaho U.S. Median age 34.2 36.4 Women 49.6% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 86.3% 66.4% Black alone 0.7% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 9.5% 14.8% Median household income $42,865 $48,451 Foreign born 5.6% 12.5% Persons below poverty 12.6% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 23.3% 27.0% Median home value $163,900 $185,200428
Idaho, admitted as the 43rd state of the Union on July 3, 1890, is one of the Mountain states, but it is often also classified as part of the Pacific Northwest region.429
Idaho covers two time zones, runs from Canada to Nevada, and encompasses the western side of the continental divide of the Rocky Mountains. Rivers, mountains and farmland dominate the state’s landscape.
93
Idaho’s history lies with its native tribes, the Lewis and Clark Expedition and determined pioneers on the Oregon Trail. Today’s Idaho is both cosmopolitan and small-town friendly.
Boise, the capital and largest city, developed near Fort Boise along the Oregon Trail has grown to a population of 190,000.
Agriculture, manufacturing and tourism are Idaho’s major industries. Abundant outdoor recreation opportunities and scenic vistas around every turn attract over 20 million tourists annually. Sun Valley was created in 1936 as America's first destination ski resort.430
The rural counties of Idaho continue to lose people to the cities, while farms and ranches continue to get larger. Most of the immigration comes from the Western, North Central, and Southern states, whereas the bulk of emigration goes to the West.
The population is more than 95 percent white, most of whom trace their ancestry to the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland, France, Italy, or Poland. American Indians constitute the second largest group, and there are also significant numbers of Asians, blacks, and Hispanics.
Nearly half of Idaho's population is church members, and about half of them are Mormons. The next largest denominational groups are Roman Catholic, Methodist, and Presbyterian. The proximity to Mormon headquarters in Salt Lake City has resulted in strong religious ties to Utah, and the populations of some of the cities in the southeastern part of the state are more than 90 percent Mormon.431
Though brushed by Yellowstone National Park's western border, Idaho is the only state without a national park of its own.432
Not so long ago Idaho was a state of farms and small towns; Boise, the pleasant state capital, was just the largest of the small towns. Today Idaho is increasingly urbanized. Nearly 60% of its people live in just five counties, in and around Boise, Idaho Falls, Coeur d’Alene and Pocatello, and all but the last are growing rapidly.
Idaho’s Hispanic population grew by 92% in the 1990s and is now 8% of the total; driver’s license exams are given in English, Spanish, Serbo-Croatian, Russian, Arabic and Vietnamese.433
Here the political trend has been toward the Republicans: Most newcomers are from Orange County, not San Francisco, and they seek not cultural liberation, but an environment in which they can raise their children in traditional lifestyles.434
Idaho is the #1 producer of potatoes in the nation, and annually produces about one-third of the total US potato crop.435
94 North Dakota DEM & GOP Caucuses – DEM Caucuses Close at 9:00 PM ET; GOP Caucuses Close at 10:00 PM ET; Latest Poll Closing 10:00 PM ET
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates NORTH Open Open to any 13 in the caucus 23 in the caucus DAKOTA caucus voting-aged 8 district level 3 district level person. The 5 statewide 20 statewide state has no voter 8 super-delegates 3 RNC members registration system. Total: 21 Total: 26
Pledged district-level delegates Pledged delegates (district- are allocated according to the level and statewide) are caucus results in the CD with a proportional to the statewide 15% threshold. Pledged vote if the candidate meets the statewide delegates are 15% threshold. If one allocated proportionally at a candidate receives more than state convention with a 15% 2/3 total statewide vote, then threshold. it's winner-take-all.
North Dakota Obama's campaign has the most paid staff and most offices of any presidential candidate of either party in North Dakota. He was also the first to do TV ads in the state. Obama is the only Democratic candidate with offices in the state.
Edwards had been endorsed by unions, representing carpenters and steelworkers, which have about 2,500 North Dakota members.436 Edwards' decision to end his campaign means both the Republican and Democratic fields no longer have anyone who has visited North Dakota in the last two years.437
Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., taped a television ad supporting Obama that is airing in North Dakota this week. Tom Daschle, a former South Dakota senator and Senate Democratic majority leader, visited for Obama in Grand Forks and Fargo on Wednesday.
Former North Dakota Democratic Gov. George Sinner has attempted to boost Clinton's prospects in the state's presidential caucuses next week.438
Romney came out on top in the state’s first straw poll back in October, but McCain might be the favorite on Tuesday. 439
Among the Republican presidential contenders, Giuliani had the only North Dakota campaign office, in Fargo, and has been the only one so far to visit the state during his campaign. He stopped in Fargo last November to speak at a fundraiser.
With Giuliani's withdrawal and his endorsement of McCain, many of Giuliani’s supporters are expected to swing to McCain’s side. Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, who is the North Dakota chairman of McCain's campaign, said he believed the Arizona senator would benefit most from Giuliani's withdrawal. "I expect that (McCain) will carry the day next Tuesday. He has the momentum going in," Stenehjem said.440
North Dakota History
95 When the new innovation of the presidential primary blossomed across the country in 1912, it was North Dakota that was first in line to vote.441 North Dakota held the first presidential primary in the nation in 1912.442
But the idea of a late-winter primary on the frigid upper Plains did not last long, and by the 1930s North Dakota had switched to a caucus. Candidates ever since have relegated it to the ranks of states whose scant prize is appraised as less precious than the time needed to court it.
North Dakota's Democrats can never be accused of ignoring the issues in presidential nominating campaigns - in fact, sometimes, the issues win. That was the case in 1980, when delegate slates on issues ranging from agriculture to mobile homes outdrew both Edward M. Kennedy and Jimmy Carter in the first round of caucus voting.
North Dakota Democrats have put off endorsing individual candidates until the national convention. Nine of the 18 delegates chosen to go to the 1984 Democratic national convention were uncommitted, including four delegates who caucused formally on agricultural issues.
The conservative wing of the Republican party was strong enough to give Ronald Reagan roughly one-third of North Dakota's national convention delegates in 1976. By 1980, the entire party had lined up behind Reagan, as he emerged from the state convention with all but one of the delegates.
North Dakota brought down the curtain on the 1988 primary season with its June 14 event, but Democrats had long since allocated their delegates. Bush easily won the Republican primary.443
Clinton won the first-round caucuses in North Dakota in 1992, which were conducted from March 5 through March 19. According to the North Dakota Democratic Party, the statewide turnout for the caucuses was about 5,000.444 Bush won the June 1992 primary Republican primary and Ross Perot, as a write-in, won the Democratic primary although the vote had no effect on the party’s delegates to the national convention. Clinton came in second as a write-in. North Dakota Democrats advised the Clinton campaign not to put the president's name on the ballot, saying it would be a meaningless exercise.445
North Dakota's February 1996 presidential primary, which was conducted mostly by mail, drew some attention from national candidates. Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, the eventual GOP nominee, won the election, finishing ahead of publisher Steve Forbes and commentator Patrick Buchanan. The primary was used to assign delegates to the national GOP convention.
Turnout was less than 15 percent, and North Dakota Democrats did not participate; Clinton was not on the ballot.446
Bush won 76% of the vote in the Feb. 29, 2000 Republican caucuses. McCain finished second with 19%. Gore won 78% to 22% over Bradley in the March 7 Democratic caucuses that year.447
Kerry easily won the Feb. 3, 2004 Democratic caucuses, winning 51% of the vote, and finishing well ahead of Clark (24%), Dean (12%), and Edwards (10%).
NORTH DAKOTA PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 39,863 (83%) Buchanan (R) 7,945 (17%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary
96 Other 28,026 (86%) Clinton (D) 4,760 (15%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 26,832 (42%) Forbes (R) 12,455 (20%) Buchanan (R) 11,653 (18%) Other 6,197 (10%) Alexander (R) 4,008 (6%) Keyes (R) 2,030 (3%) Other 559 (1%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Other (D) 1,035 (65%) LaRouche (D) 549 (35%)
March 7, 2000 North Dakota Caucus Gore (D) (78%) Bradley (D) (22%) Other (1%)
February 29, 2000 Republican Caucus Bush (R) (76%) McCain (R) (19%) Keyes (R) (5%) Forbes (R) (0%) Other (0%)
February 3, 2004 Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (51%) Clark (D) (24%) Dean (D) (12%) Edwards (D) (10%) Kucinich (D) (3%) Other (1%)
Profile of North Dakota North Dakota’s 2007 population of about 640,000 includes a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites, a higher percentage of American Indian and Alaska Natives, a lower percentage of blacks and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 71 percent of North Dakota’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, higher than the national rate of 64 percent.
Selected Characteristics North Dakota U.S.
97 Median age 37.2 36.4 Women 49.8% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 90.4% 66.4% Black alone 0.8% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 1.7% 14.8% American Indian and Alaska Native 5.4% 1.0% alone Median household income $41,919 $48,451 Foreign born 2.1% 12.5% Persons below poverty 11.4% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 25.6% 27.0% Median home value $99,700 $185,200448
Officially classed as one of the seven western north central states, North Dakota was admitted to the Union as the 39th state on Nov. 2, 1889.449 Only Vermont and Wyoming have fewer residents than North Dakota.
An uptick in economic activity, spurred largely by a boom in the state's oil patch, has resulted in more than 10,000 jobs in North Dakota with no takers, state Commerce Commissioner Shane Goettle said. 450 The state had a remarkable 3.3% unemployment rate in Dec. 2007.
The major industries of North Dakota, as reported by North Dakota State University, are agriculture, tourism, manufacturing, coal mining and conversion, oil and gas exploration, extraction and refining, and exported services. North Dakota ranks first in the production of flaxseed, canola, durum wheat, all dry edible beans, all dry edible peas, spring wheat, honey, lentils, sunflowers, barley and oats.
About 10 percent of North Dakota's area, the band of rich soil 40 miles west of the Red River, is often called the "Breadbasket of the World." Livestock production is second only to wheat in North Dakota's agricultural economy.451
Gov. John Hoeven says North Dakota leads the US in production of 13 commodities, has a diverse economy and booming energy and technology industries that have kept the unemployment rate below the national average, and population growth since 2005. 452
Tourism is North Dakota's second-largest industry after agriculture, with an estimated $3.6 billion spent in 2005.453
North Dakota has more churches -- operating, abandoned or used for other purposes -- per capita than any other state. There are 2,300 in all, more than three-fourths of them in rural areas.454 Most North Dakotans have religious affiliations. Almost one-half are Lutherans, more than one-third are Roman Catholics, and most of the remainder are divided among other Christian denominations. Jewish congregations have existed from before statehood.455
North Dakota has the best wind patterns in the U.S. for producing electricity. North Dakota alone is theoretically capable of producing enough wind-generated power to meet more than fourth of U.S. electricity demand.456
In the 2004 general election, 16.1 percent of the North Dakotans who voted did so before Election Day, accounting for 51,116 of the 316,049 ballots cast. 457
98 Utah Primary – Latest Poll Closing 10:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates UTAH Semi- Dems and 23 in the primary 36 in the primary open unaffiliated 15 district level 9 district level Dem voters may 8 statewide 24 statewide primary; vote in the Closed Dem primary. 6 super-delegates 3 RNC members GOP Only GOPers primary may vote in Total: 29 Total: 36 the GOP primary, but Pledged district-level All delegates (district-level, unaffiliated delegates are allocated statewide and RNC members) voters may according to the primary vote are winner-take-all by register with in each CD with a 15% statewide vote. the GOP on threshold. Pledged statewide election day. delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.
Utah Romney expects to win in Utah -- Romney is a Mormon, and Mormonism is the dominant religion in the state. 458 Utah is essentially a second home for Romney. 459
Utah is receiving attention from the Democrats for the first time in years. Clinton and Obama have campaign offices in Utah. Both presidential hopefuls have been showing televised advertisements. This is the first election that presidential candidates have aired TV ads in the state.460
Obama had a last minute visit scheduled, but out of respect for the funeral services of LDS Church President Gordon B. Hinckley, he canceled. His wife is scheduled to visit Utah the day before Super Tuesday. 461
Chelsea Clinton spoke at the University of Utah the week before Super Tuesday.462 A Deseret Morning News Poll found Clinton has an edge over Obama in the state. 463
Romney is favored to win the state where a majority of residents share his Mormon faith and where he led the successful 2002 Winter Olympics.464
Utah History In 1988, Utah's Republican caucuses were conducted so late in the nominating season that the party ended up holding a straw vote to gauge preferences for vice president rather than for president.
Utah Democrats drew some attention in 1992 by holding a party-run primary on the first Tuesday in March ("Junior Tuesday"). More than 30,000 voters cast ballots, roughly triple the turnout for the party's traditional neighborhood caucuses (a format that Democrats will return to in 1996).
Democratic presidential candidate Jerry Brown made two appearances in Utah the week before the 1992 voting, and Hillary Rodham Clinton campaigned in behalf of her husband. But Paul E. Tsongas made the biggest effort, with a TV advertising campaign that is estimated to have cost $50,000. The effort paid off. Tsongas won with one-third of the vote; Brown placed second and Clinton third.465
99
In March 1996, no straw poll was taken to gauge support for Bob Dole and Pat Buchanan in the Republican caucuses. Democrats could choose between Clinton and two little-known candidates or check off "uncommitted."466
In 2000, when Utah held its primary on March 10 as part of the touted Western States Primary, the experiment fizzled with a dismal 10 percent Utah-voter turnout. It turned out by that date then- candidate George W. Bush already had sewn up the Republican nomination. Bush and Gore swept to easy wins in the 2000 Utah presidential primary.
In 2004, Utah's GOP-dominated Legislature didn't even fund a primary with President Bush seeking re-election. Democrats paid for their own primary-preference poll on Feb. 24.467
Kerry won Utah's Democratic presidential primary with 55% to Edwards’ 33%. The Democratic party-run primary brought more than 35,000 residents throughout the state to the polls.
For 2008, Utah was happy to schedule its primary for February 5, with hopes of attracting national candidates.468
UTAH PRIMARY RESULTS
No presidential primary in UT in 1992.
No presidential primary in UT in 1996.
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 57,617 (63%) Keyes (R) 19,367 (21%) McCain (R) 12,784 (14%) Forbes (R) 859 (1%) Other 426 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 12,527 (80%) Bradley (D) 3,160 (20%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 19,232 (55%) Edwards (D) 10,384 (30%) Kucinich (D) 2,590 (7%) Dean (D) 1,335 (4%) Clark (D) 489 (1%) Other 824 (2%)
Profile of Utah Utah’s 2007 population of about 2.6 million includes a higher percentage of whites, a lower percentage blacks, and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 68 percent of Utah’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election. The national rate was 64 percent.
100
Selected Characteristics Utah U.S. Median age 28.3 36.4 Women 49.7% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 82.9% 66.4% Black alone 1.0% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 11.2% 14.8% Median household income $51,309 $48,451 Foreign born 8.3% 12.5% Persons below poverty 10.6% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 28.6% 27.0% Median home value $188,500 $185,200469
Voters in the state are strongly religious, with a huge majority belonging to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and strongly Republican. The last time a Democrat won Utah in a presidential race — it was Lyndon B. Johnson, in 1964.470
Utah was the 45th state to enter the United States (January 4, 1896). Today, Utah ranks as the 34th most populous state in the United States.
The name "Utah" comes from the Native American "Ute" tribe and means people of the mountains. Utah is 84,900 square miles and ranked the 11th largest state (in terms of square miles) in the U.S. Utah's peaks, on average, are the tallest in the country.
Utah shares rich oil shale deposits with Colorado and Wyoming. Utah also has large deposits of low sulphur coal. The state's top agricultural commodities include cattle and calves, dairy products, hay, greenhouse and nursery products, and hogs. Utah's traditional industries of agriculture and mining are complemented by increased tourism and growing aerospace, biomedical, and computer-related businesses.471
Utah has the highest percentage of households headed by married couples, the highest fertility rate for non-Hispanic whites, the youngest median age of first marriage, and the lowest rate of birth to unmarried mothers. It has many more children per capita than any other state.
It is the youngest state, with the largest families and one of the longest life expectancies, and the highest rate of volunteering.
Some 62% of Utahns are Mormons, a percentage that has been declining but is still a solid majority, and pervading the cultural atmosphere of the state is the LDS Church. Its opposition to abortion is widely shared and it has always discouraged gambling: Utah has a law penalizing abortion if Roe v. Wade is overturned and is one of two states (Hawaii is the other) with no form of gambling.
Utah has some of the more restrictive laws on alcohol and has been way ahead of the rest of the nation in discouraging the use of tobacco. A large majority in 2004 voted for a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage.
Polls show about 80% of Mormons vote Republican, but church leaders made a point of stating that “principles compatible with the gospel may be found in the platforms of all political parties.”
Today, Utah sees itself as a busy generator of wealth, with a raft of successful businesses and a knack for high-tech innovation—and longer work weeks than the rest of the nation.472
101 According to the Lieutenant Governor's Office, 1.04 million Utahns are registered as "unaffiliated," more than all those registered to other parties combined. It says another 538,305 are registered Republicans, 125,992 are Democrats and 1,427 are registered with the Constitution Party. No other parties are currently recognized by the state.473
The rise in Utah home prices led the country for much of 2007.474 But now a growing number of Utahns are falling behind on their mortgages .
Immigration has emerged as a hot-button issue in Utah, where a growing number of Hispanic immigrants have changed the hue of the once-homogenous state. The Mormon church, as part of its missionary outreach, has welcomed and aided the influx of immigrants. But many other Utah residents are concerned about the strains immigrants have placed on social services, particularly crowded classrooms and swamped health care providers.475
Some 60 percent of Utahns polled in a recent Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll think there should be a local role in the enforcement of immigration law. And, when it comes to penalizing employers who hire undocumented immigrants, some 74 percent approve. And 85 percent say citizenship checks should be required to receive public benefits.476 Forty-four percent of those surveyed support a law protecting people from employment discrimination based on sexual orientation.477
In 2007, the Utah jobless rate surpassed 3 percent for the first time since August 2006. The state’s Dec. 2007 unemployment rate was a very low 3.2%. Utah created about 44,800 jobs in 2007. An estimated 43,700 Utahns were unemployed in December, up from 34,000 in December 2006.478
102 California Primary – Latest Poll Closing 11:00 PM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates CALIFORNIA Semi- Independents 370 in the primary 170 in the primary open and Dems 241 district level 159 district-level primary may vote in 129 statewide 11 statewide for Dems; the Dem closed primary. Only 71 super-delegates 3 RNC members primary registered for GOP party members Total: 441 Total: 173 can vote in the GOP primary. Pledged district-level Pledged district-level delegates are allocated delegates are winner-take-all according to the vote in each by CD. Statewide delegates CD with a 15% threshold. are winner-take-all by Statewide delegates are statewide vote. allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.
California With more than a fifth of the Feb. 5 Democratic delegates, California is Super Tuesday's richest prize. The state has long been a Clinton stronghold -- so much so that her California campaign director already has predicted victory. "We've got it," director Ace Smith said, noting that the campaign has already met or exceeded early voting targets that are considered a strong indicator of primary day performance. About half of the state's Democrats are expected to cast absentee ballots, and many began nearly a month ago, on Jan. 7.
Clinton is trying to consolidate strength in Los Angeles, where she has the backing of Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's political machine as well as large numbers of her base supporters, including lower- and middle-income workers and Hispanics.
Obama's campaign is strongest in the San Francisco Bay area, where high-income white voters are backing him as they are nationwide. He is also popular among the state's black voters who mostly live in Oakland and parts of Los Angeles.
With so many delegates at stake, Obama is investing heavily in the state in hopes of staying competitive. He has begun running television ads in Los Angeles, one of the nation's costliest TV markets, and has launched an aggressive outreach program to Hispanic voters who so far have shown little interest in his candidacy.479
In California, Clinton has led in the polls from the beginning, but her margin has narrowed. Clinton's strongest groups form the bulwark of the state's Democratic party: women, lower- income people and Latinos. African Americans are strong for Obama, but they represent only 7% of the electorate, according to a recent Field Poll.
Endorsed in California by Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Clinton is campaigning as the establishment candidate. But with Kennedy's endorsement of Obama, it's clear the political establishment isn't ready to fall in behind one candidate yet.
Kennedy, the Massachusetts senator and one of the Democratic Party's most senior figures, will campaign for Obama and help him shore up support among Latino voters. Latino voters are a mainstay of Clinton's base, and they have a large presence in California, Arizona and several
103 other states that vote Feb. 5. The Obama campaign believes that Kennedy will carry influence among Latinos in part because of his prominent role in calling for an overhaul of immigration laws that includes a path to citizenship for undocumented workers. 480
McCain runs strongly ahead in the state. Only registered Republicans can vote in the primary. That could benefit Romney and hurt McCain, who draws his support more widely.
The state party will distribute delegates based on the winner in each congressional district, meaning 53 separate contests each offering three delegates. Thus, the candidates are targeting time and money carefully to the districts they think they have the best chance to win.
McCain could have an advantage in urban areas and California's coastal counties that tend to lean toward the left. The former Vietnam prisoner of war also should find support in the south around military-focused San Diego. Romney may perform well among the more conservative inland counties.
Romney has more campaign organization here, and money. But Giuliani's backing could help McCain overcome that. The former New York mayor has a campaign organization here.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger hasn't endorsed a candidate. Anyway, his popularity is not at a high point given state budget turmoil.481
California History California has long been dissatisfied with its June primary, and envious of the states that vote earlier. California regards itself as the Land of the Future, but picking Presidential nominees after most of the candidates have already crashed and burned made people feel non-cutting-edge, a retro electorate.482
California began conducting presidential primaries in 1912.483 Four decades ago, the California primary batted cleanup in the presidential sweepstakes -- its June primary decided whom the parties nominated for president. Then the Iowas and New Hampshires began playing a larger role, and by the time the primary race arrived in California, the nominees were all but officially selected.484
Some oldtimers can still recall when California’s June primary was the national tiebreaker. This state was the center of national attention when Nelson Rockefeller lost here to Barry Goldwater in 1964, when Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy slugged it out in 1968—Kennedy won and was murdered by a Palestinian terrorist on primary night—and when George McGovern edged Hubert Humphrey in 1972.
California was all the more important because it was still winner-take-all in both parties. Democrats switched from winner-take-all after 1972, but few noticed because every four years California voted long after the nominations were clinched.485
The big change since 1974 is the timing of primaries. Back then, California's presidential primary was in June.486
In the past, California's presidential primaries have been good for the underdog. Jerry Brown defeated Jimmy Carter in 1976, and in 1980, Carter was upset by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D- Mass).487
In 1992, Texas industrialist Ross Perot would have won both the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries in California by double-digit margins if he had been on the ballot, according to a Los Angeles Times exit poll.488
104 California's attempt in 1996 to increase its clout in presidential politics by advancing its primary from June to March 26 was a colossal failure, since other states also adopted earlier primary dates.489
For 1996 California moved its presidential primary from the first week in June to March 26; that was still too late to make any difference. So in 2000 it moved it to March 7.
In 2004 California voted on March 2, for John Kerry; this was the day Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination. In the 2004 Kerry won 64% of the vote, with John Edwards getting 20%.
In September 2004 Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill rescheduling the presidential primary in June.
In early 2007 it joined other major states, including New York and New Jersey, deciding to hold their primaries on February 5, not long after New Hampshire. Democratic legislative leaders supported the change and Schwarzenegger was happy to sign the bill in March 2007.
More important was the possible June 2008 ballot proposal pushed by Republican strategists that would apportion California's electoral votes by congressional district, ending the state's winner- take-all system. Democrats began organizing in 2007 to oppose the initiative; had it been in place in 2004, George W. Bush would have taken 22 electoral votes out of California despite losing the state by more than 1.2 million votes.490
In 2000, George W. Bush won the Republican primary and Al Gore won the Democratic primary.491
Turnout in the past five California presidential primaries ranged from 44 to 54 percent.492
California had a closed primary system until 1996. In 1996 an initiative (Proposition 198) approved by voters changed the system to an open primary. On June 26, 2000, the United States Supreme Court issued a decision in California Democratic Party, et. al. v. Jones, stating that California's "open" primary system, established by Proposition 198, was unconstitutional because it violated a political party's First Amendment right of association. The Supreme Court overturned Proposition 198.
California currently has a "modified" closed primary system. This change took effect in 2001. It permits unaffiliated ("decline to state") voters to participate in a primary election if authorized by an individual party's rules and duly noticed by the Secretary of State. 493
California is one of only five states in which more than 25 percent of voters routinely cast absentee ballots, said Paul Gronke, director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Oregon. The others are Washington, Texas, Tennessee and Iowa, although absentee voting doesn’t apply to the in-person caucuses.494
Now, because California's presidential primary is Feb. 5, and because it has never had the number of absentee voters that it will in 2008, the state just might play a decisive role again.495
Absentee voting in California has surged only in the last few election cycles because this type of voting is made so easy. In 2006, 3.7 million California voters cast absentee ballots in the general election, nearly 42% of the total vote. According to a study by the nonpartisan California Target Book, about 2.1 million of those votes were counted by county elections officials before the polls opened Nov. 7 because absentee voters mailed in their completed ballots as early as two to three weeks before the election.
The vast majority of these early voters were categorized as "permanent absentee voters." That means they automatically received a ballot in the mail after applying for one and opting to
105 continue the practice. Overall, there were 4 million permanent absentee ballots mailed to voters in the 2006 election, up from 2.2 million in 2004. Post-election analysis of the 2006 vote showed that at least 80% of these voters, or 3.2 million, returned them.496
CALIFORNIA PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 1,587,369 (74%) Buchanan (R) 568,892 (26%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 1,359,112 (48%) Brown (D) 1,150,460 (40%) Tsongas (D) 212,522 (7%) Other 107,580 (4%) Kerrey (D) 33,935 (1%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 1,619,931 (66%) Buchanan (R) 450,695 (18%) Forbes (R) 183,367 (8%) Keyes (R) 93,577 (4%) Other 45,811 (2%) Alexander (R) 44,130 (2%) Lugar (R) 14,801 (1%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 2,342,185 (93%) LaRouche (D) 173,953 (7%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 1,725,162 (61%) McCain (R) 988,706 (35%) Keyes (R) 112,747 (4%) Other 21,306 (1%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 2,155,321 (81%) Bradley (D) 482,882 (18%) LaRouche (D) 15,911 (1%)
2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 2,002,539 (64%) Edwards (D) 614,441 (20%) Kucinich (D) 144,954 (5%) Dean (D) 130,892 (4%)
106 Sharpton (D) 59,326 (2%) Other 155,457 (5%)
Profile of California California had a 2007 population of 36.6 million, more than one-third of which (35.9 percent) is Hispanic or Latino. At 12.4 percent, California also has a higher proportion of Asians than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 62 percent of California’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election. The national rate of 64 percent.
Selected Characteristics California U.S. Median age 34.4 36.4 Women 50.0% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 43.1% 66.4% Black alone 6.7% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 35.9% 14.8% Asian alone 12.4% 4.4% Median household income $56,645 $48,451 Foreign born 27.2% 12.5% Persons below poverty 13.1% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 29.0% 27.0% Median home value $535,700 $185,200497
California added 303,343 people between July 2006 and July 2007, an increase of 0.08 percent, making it the 25th-fastest growing state in the nation, according to figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau. California remains the most populous state with about 37 million people, as of June 30.498
California has the eighth-largest economy in the world, ranking behind the U.S. itself, Japan, Germany, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy, according to U.S. Commerce Department and World Bank figures.499
California today is generally Democratic, well off to the left on cultural issues, secular more than religious. In installing Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor and reelecting Schwarzenegger three years later, California set an interesting example, one that might be followed depending on who wins the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.500
California Republicans dealt a fatal blow to Nelson Rockefeller by choosing Barry Goldwater in 1964 and helped Ronald Reagan nearly block President Gerald Ford's nomination in 1976.
For Democrats, "this is probably the most spirited primary we've had since McGovern-Humphrey in 1972 or Bobby (Kennedy) and Eugene McCarthy in 1968," says Art Torres, chairman of the California Democratic Party. Candidates are raising more money here than in any other state. They also are commiserating about the economy, including skyrocketing home foreclosures, and becoming educated about California issues such as the Hollywood writers' strike.501
In California, the number of voters who decline to register with a party has soared to 19.3%, double the 1992 percentage. At the same time, the number of registered Democrats has fallen to 42.7% and the number of Republicans has declined to 33.6%, according to the office of Secretary of State Debra Bowen.502 California's 3 million independent voters are growing at the expense of both major parties and account for nearly one in five of the state's registered voters.
107
Most California independents describe themselves as moderate, and analysts say they tend to be turned off by harsh campaign rhetoric. They also are younger and less white than the voters of either major party. About 45 percent of independents are under 40.503
Bay Area counties have 21 percent of California's voters, and 29 percent of permanent mail voters. Among Democrats, the Bay Area's portion of mail voters jumps from 24 percent of the state total among all voters to 36 percent among the permanent mail voters.504
Voters who describe themselves as born-again Christians or evangelicals make up about one- third of likely GOP primary voters in California.505 California is home to more Mormons than any state other than Utah. At of the end of 2006, there were more than 750,000 Mormon church members in the state. The Mormon Church has previously thrust itself into bruising political fights, most notably California's anti-gay marriage initiative that voters approved in 2000.506
California is dominated by female voters and has a long tradition of electing women to higher office, sending both Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein to the U.S. Senate in 1992. "California is a state that understands the importance of electing women," said Hesla of Emily's List. "It will play a vital and perhaps decisive role on Feb. 5."507
The issue most likely to shape the presidential contest here, though, is the environment. “Top of the list: global warming,” said Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in California. The governor has made it the centerpiece of his whole administration.”
Immigration is a particularly tough issue here for both parties, in a state that has been transformed by an influx of Hispanic voters. It has created political cross-pressures on Republicans, who are trying to deal with voters who see the influx of immigrants as a threat to their safety, cultural identity and economic well-being; and Democrats, who have benefited in the past decade from the perception among many legal immigrants that Republicans are anti- immigration. The latest debate here is whether illegal immigrants should be granted drivers’ licenses.508
In California, an issue that could turn out to be key for young voters is immigration; statewide, 50 percent of 18- to 24-year-old registered voters are Latino.509
About 4 million of California's 15.5 million registered voters are classified as "permanent absentee," meaning they automatically receive their ballots by mail.510
Leading industries include agriculture, manufacturing (transportation equipment, machinery, and electronic equipment), biotechnology, aerospace-defense, and tourism.511
The state faces at least a $3.3-billion shortfall in the current year's spending plan and must fill a $14-billion hole in the budget that takes effect July 1, 2008. Gov. Schwarzenegger has said the state is facing a "fiscal emergency," calling for a 10% across-the-board cut in government spending for the next fiscal year.
Sales of existing homes fell 36 per cent in California in the year to November 2007, while median sale prices fell 12 per cent.512 The housing market's vicious downward cycle wreaked havoc in 2007, as record numbers of people in California and the Bay Area lost their homes to foreclosure. Lenders repossessed 84,375 California houses and condos in 2007, up more than sixfold from 12,672 in 2006.513
California is the world's fifth largest supplier of food and agricultural commodities, and its agricultural production represents 13.3% of the nation's total value.514 Los Angeles is the nation's leading port and second-biggest manufacturer, as well as the world's entertainment center. The
108 Bay area, which once lived by exporting food, is now the world's leader in computers and high tech.515 California produces more than 90 percent of total U.S. wine production.516
In 2006, California became the first state to impose a cap on all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from industrial plants, under a landmark deal reached by Gov. Schwarzenegger and legislative Democrats.517 Under the Clean Air Act, California is the only state that can set its own vehicle pollution standards because it started regulating air pollution before the EPA was created.
The state's plan to reduce tailpipe emissions is key to California's goal of lowering greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. About a third of the state's emissions come from cars, pickups and sport utility vehicles, a figure that will only grow if they are not regulated in the nation's most populous state.518
Hispanics in California Los Angeles County’s minority population is higher than the total population of 38 states, with the largest population of Hispanics, Asians, and American Indians and Alaska Natives in the country.519 The Hispanic population of Los Angeles County is 4.6 million — the largest of any county in the nation. L.A. County has the highest number of Hispanic-owned firms in the nation.520
About one in three Californians is Latino. About 14 million California residents are Latino. Latinos make up about 31 percent of Californians adult population. Latinos make up about 14 percent California voters most likely to turn out in elections. Six in 10 Latino likely voters (61%) are Democrats, 20 percent are Republicans; and 19 percent registered as independents.521 Hispanics will make up a majority of California's population by 2042, according to projections by the state Department of Finance.
In California, minorities from all groups combined -- 20 million -- now outnumber whites. By midcentury, it's estimated that Hispanics will comprise 52 percent of California's 59.5 million residents.
Imperial County in Southern California will have the largest percentage of Hispanics.522
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger won roughly 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in his state in his re- election in 2006.523
In 2004, Hispanics accounted for 16 percent of the vote in the California primary.524
109 Montana GOP Caucus – Latest Poll Closing 12:00 AM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates MONTANA Closed Only GOP 25 in the caucus GOP members and 3 district level "preference" officials can 19 statewide caucus participate. (This is 3 RNC members binding. A non-binding Total: 25 GOP primary and binding All delegates (district-level, Dem primary statewide and RNC will take place members) are winner-take-all on 6/3). by vote at the 2/5 county-level caucuses.
Montana Montana is a wild card for the Republicans. 525
On Feb. 5, there will be a caucus held in each of Montana's 56 counties. Caucuses meet at different times throughout the day, many have a social hour, and then representatives of each of the campaigns will give speeches. After that, there will be a chance for discussion, and then there will be a vote conducted by paper ballot. Most of the caucuses follow that model. The only rule the state party applies deadline-wise is that counties have is that all of the votes need to be called into state headquarters by 10 p.m. MT that night.
About 2,800 people are eligible to vote, and that's if they fill all 1,700 precinct positions. All of the voting members of the Montana Republican Party State Executive Committee have a vote. Elected officers from each county central committee have a vote. Each precinct person has a vote. All incumbent Republican members of the Montana Legislature, Public Service Commission and incumbent Republican office holders in county, state and federal offices also have a vote.526
Montana History The last time a Republican presidential contest seriously involved Montana was in 1976, when Ronald Reagan and then--President Gerald R. Ford were nearing the end of their long-running battle for the nomination. Reagan won the Montana primary with 63 percent of the vote, then swept all the delegates to the national convention.
Generally, a libertarian rather than moralistic strain of Republicanism is dominant in Montana. President George Bush won the primary easily in 1992, with Patrick J. Buchanan running a distant third behind the "no preference" line.
Clinton scored a lackluster win in Democratic voting in 1992. Even though he was already the apparent nominee and had the backing of Democratic Sen. Max Baucus, Clinton drew less than 50 percent of the primary vote. He was ambushed by the "no preference" forces in rural Treasure County, which includes the towns of Custer and Bighorn.527
Montana’s presidential primary has typically been held in early June, far too late to affect any results. Bush and Gore both won easy victories here in 2000. Kerry won easily here in 2004; Kucinich campaigned in the state and finished second with 11% of the vote.
110 Montana appears to be in a unique position among the states that have created new caucus rules to adjust to the big changes in the presidential primary schedule. The state traditionally held an open primary in June, a preference vote that was not binding on delegates of either party.
Montana Republicans decided in the fall of 2007 to establish and run their own caucus in February in order to attract interest from candidates and to help build local party offices.
Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political scientist who has studied the country's primary system, says the Montana system stands out. "It's like a throwback to the old ways that parties worked, really pre-1972 when really it was all about delegates being decided by party insiders," he said. "That's an unusual type of format, very peculiar to Montana."
Montana modeled its system after Wyoming, where county level precinct people get to pick 12 of the state's delegates. But in Wyoming, the delegates are not bound to stick with their presidential candidate. And since their state's precinct positions remains about full, there is no rush for open jobs.528
MONTANA PRIMARY RESULTS
1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 65,176 (72%) Uncommitted 15,098 (17%) Buchanan (R) 10,701 (12%)
1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 54,989 (57%) Uncommitted 28,164 (24%) Brown (D) 21,704 (19%) Tsongas (D) 12,614 (11%)
1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 72,176 (61%) Buchanan (R) 28,581 (24%) Other 8,533 (7%) Forbes (R) 8,456 (7%)
1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 82,549 (90%) Uncommitted 9,176 (10%)
2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 88,194 (78%) Keyes (R) 20,822 (18%) No Preference 4,655 (4%)
2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 68,420 (78%) No Preference (D) 19,447 (22%)
111 2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 63,611 68% Kucinich (D) 9,686 10% Edwards (D) 8,516 9% No Preference (D) 6,899 7% Clark (D) 4,081 4% Other 750 1%
Profile of Montana About 70 percent of Montana’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, which was higher than the national rate of 64 percent.
Montana’s 2007 population of 958,000 includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white- alone population and a lower percentage of blacks and Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
Selected Characteristics Montana U.S. Median age 39.2 36.4 Women 50.0% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 88.7% 66.4% Black alone 0.4% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 2.5% 14.8% Median household income $40,627 $48,451 Foreign born 1.9% 12.5% Persons below poverty 13.6% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 27.4% 27.0% Median home value $155,500 $185,200529
Only three states—Alaska, Texas, and California—have an area larger than Montana's 147,046 square miles, and only two states—Alaska and Wyoming—have a lower population density.530
Native Americans were the first inhabitants of the area to become known as the state of Montana. The Lewis and Clark Expedition of 1804-1806 was the first group of white explorers to cross Montana.The discovery of gold brought many prospectors into the area in the 1860's, and Montana became a territory in 1864. During the 1880's railroads crossed Montana, and the territory became a state in 1889. Post-war or "modern" Montana (1945-2000) has been characterized by a slow shift from an economy that relies on the extraction of natural resources to one that is service-based.
Such traditional industries as copper, petroleum, coal, and timber have suffered wild market fluctuations and unstable employment patterns. Agriculture -- while dependent on weather, a declining workforce, and international markets -- has remained Montana's primary industry throughout the era.531
Montana is physically isolated from the nation's major markets, which are located east of the Mississippi River and in the Southwest. Montana has a small and dispersed population Montana has a greater dependence on natural resources than almost any other region in the country.532
112 Montana has seven Indian reservations and an Indian minority of about 5 percent. Nearly two- thirds of the Indians live on the reservations and most of the rest in the cities near the reservations, notably Missoula, Great Falls, and Billings.
About half the inhabitants of Montana are affiliated with organized religious groups. Mormonism has increased in Montana. Many of the Indians were nominally converted to Roman Catholicism by missionaries.533
Nearly one in 10 adult Montanans suffers from depression, one of the highest rates in the nation, and has long had one of the nation's highest suicide rates, according to the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Service Administration.534
Montana lenders have made fewer subprime loans than lenders in other states, and Montana’s foreclosure rates are below the rates in both the nation and the 11-state block that encompasses most of the Rocky Mountain region.535
Montanans' support for the war in Iraq has risen in recent months but remains below 50 percent, as does their approval of the way President Bush handles his job, a statewide Mason-Dixon poll found.536
113 Alaska DEM Caucus & GOP Party-Run Primary – DEM Caucuses Close at 12:00 AM ET; GOP Caucuses Close at 12:30 AM ET; Latest Poll Closing 12:30 AM
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates ALASKA Closed Only 13 in the caucus 26 in the caucus caucus registered 8 district level 3 district level party members 5 statewide 23 statewide are eligible to participate in 5 unpledged super-delegates 3 unpledged RNC member their party's delegates caucus. There Total: 18 is caucus day Total: 29 registration. Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to Pledged district-level and caucus results in each CD, statewide delegates are both with a 15% threshold. allocated according to straw poll.
Alaska The only candidate to send a representative to Alaska is Romney. Josh Romney, one of the Republican candidate’s five sons, will be in Fairbanks today campaigning for his father.
Huckabee, another Republican candidate, has attracted a small number of supporters from North Pole. They’ve been waving signs on roadsides in Fairbanks and North Pole for several weeks now and may also do so this weekend, local organizer Rena Cook said.
On the Democratic side, campaign organizers for Obama held mock caucuses Thursday in Fairbanks and Anchorage in anticipation of Tuesday’s caucuses.
While Republicans select their candidate via secret ballot, the Democratic caucuses require voters to stand in opposite corners of a room in support of their candidate. If their selected candidate doesn’t get at least 15 percent of the vote from those in attendance, supporters of that candidate must select another candidate.
Democrats are also making a push to increase voter turnout Tuesday. The Alaska Democratic Party last month enlisted Alaska snowboarder Rosey Fletcher for a public service announcement that urges voters from both major political parties to vote in Tuesday’s events.537
Alaska History Alaska has never played a significant role in presidential politics.538
Alaska has no presidential primary. Party true believers tend to dominate the caucuses.539
In 1984, Senator Gary Hart scored a victory over Walter F. Mondale in Alaska's precinct caucuses, gaining 43 percent of the vote to Mondale's 30 percent. Jesse Jackson took about 10 percent of the vote and 15 percent of the Democrats participating voted to go uncommitted to district caucuses.540
Jesse Jackson narrowly won the 1988 Democratic caucuses, with about 35 percent to Michael Dukakis' 31 percent. Nearly 2,000 voters turned out.541
114 In 1988, a grass-roots campaign focusing on contributors to his former television ministry helped give Pat Robertson a 2-to-1 victory over Vice President George Bush in the Alaska Republican precinct caucuses.542
In 1992, 36% of those who participated chose no candidate, 33% favored Jerry Brown and 30% voted for Clinton.543
About 1,100 of Alaska's 53,000 registered Democrats participated in the 1992 caucus, party officials said. Neither Brown nor Clinton campaigned in Alaska in 1992, and party leaders said neither had the appeal that Jesse Jackson had for Alaskans in 1988.544
In 1996, publisher Steve Forbes, commentator Pat Buchanan, radio talk show host Alan Keyes and Texas Sen. Phil Gramm had all paid at least one visit to the state. Sen. Bob Dole sent his wife, Elizabeth, to campaign in Anchorage. It was the first time since Ronald Reagan campaigned in Alaska in 1979 that presidential candidates had visited the state.545
In the January 1996 straw poll or “beauty contest,” Alaska Republicans voted 33% for Pat Buchanan, 31% for Steve Forbes, and 17% for Bob Dole.
In November 1999, the Republican Party committee voted 39–36 to hold precinct caucuses and a straw poll on January 24, 2000. About 4,000 Alaskans voted, and George W. Bush led Forbes by 5 votes.546
In 2000, Alaska Democrats threw their support to former Vice President Al Gore in the caucuses.547
In 2004, Alaska Democrats held their caucus in March, while Republicans waited until the end of May to hold their convention.548
In 2004, Kerry captured 79% of the vote in the Alaska Democratic caucuses, with Dennis Kucinich finishing second with 25.8% of the vote.549
March 20, 2004 Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (48%) Kucinich (D) (26%) Dean (D) (11%) Edwards (D) (3%) Clark (D) (0%) Other (12%)
Profile of Alaska Alaska’s 2007 population of about 680,000 has a lower poverty rate and higher median household income than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
About 68 percent of Alaska’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, slightly above the national rate of 64 percent.
Selected Characteristics Alaska U.S. Median age 33.4 36.4 Women 48.3% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino alone 66.4% 66.4% Black alone 3.7% 12.8%
115 American Indian and Alaska Native alone 15.4% 1.0% Hispanic or Latino 5.6% 14.8% Median household income $59,393 $48,451 Foreign born 7.0% 12.5% Persons below poverty 10.9% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 26.9% 27.0% Median home value $213,200 $185,200550
Politically, Alaska is heavily Republican, with a libertarian streak. In national politics, it has been solidly Republican since the 1970s because national Democrats have favored locking up natural resources.551
Feeling its way into national party politics in 1960, Alaska gave Nixon just 1,000 more votes than John Kennedy. 552
In presidential elections, the Democratic nominee has carried the state only once — in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson swept the country in a landslide — although the 1960 and 1968 outcomes were close. No state has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate fewer times than Alaska.
Alaska is perceived very much as a red state, but independent-minded voters still are not willing to put claim party affiliations.553
In 1867 Alaska officially became the property of the US when it was bought from Russia for about 2 cents an acre. Alaska officially became the 49th state on January 3, 1959.554
Alaska is the largest state is the US and is well over twice the size of Texas. Measuring from north to south the state is approximately 1,400 miles long and measuring from east to west it is 2,700 miles wide.
Alaska is so big that our 21 smallest states would fit into it. Half the world's glaciers are there, yet they cover only 3 percent of the state. With 586,412 miles, it is one-fifth the size of the other 49 states combined. It is our northernmost, easternmost and westernmost state. Its 47,300-mile coastline is longer than that of all other states combined.555 The state’s 19.2-million acre Arctic National Wildlife Refuge supports the greatest variety of plant and animal life of any Park or Refuge in the circumpolar arctic.556
Anchorage is Alaska's largest city with 278,700 people, 42 percent of the state's population.557 One-third of Alaskans have no access to the state’s roads and are reachable only by boat or airplane. Alaska has, per capita, six times the number of pilots and 16 times the number of aircraft as the rest of the nation, and 722 registered airports.
There is no one Alaska Native culture. Alaska is home to many Native peoples. Alaska’s indigenous people are divided into eleven distinct cultures with 20 different languages.558 There are more indigenous Americans living in Alaska, per capita, than any other state. In 2006, 18 percent of Alaskans identified themselves as either American Indian or Alaska Native. Tied for second place were Oklahoma and New Mexico, where 11 percent of the population is either American Indian or Alaska Native. In sheer numbers, there were 108,614 Alaska Natives – 16 percent of the state’s population – living in Alaska in 2006.559
Alaska pay no state-level income tax or state sales tax, and stands apart with the with nation’s lowest tax burden, 6.6 percent. Additionally, taxpayers receive checks at tax time from a reserve fund of oil tax revenue, and the state collects severance taxes on oil extraction.560
116 In Alaska, the oil, gas and mining industries made the strongest contribution to the earnings growth, followed by the military and the health care industries, the BEA says.561
At 6.5 percent, Alaska had the nation’s fourth-highest unemployment rate in December 2007.562
Alaska accounts for 25 percent of the oil produced in the United States. 563 The state gets more than 85 percent of its revenue from oil production. This includes revenue from royalties, production taxes, property taxes and corporate income taxes.564
Excluding Federal offshore production, Alaska ranks second in the Nation in crude oil production. Prudhoe Bay on Alaska’s North Slope is the highest yielding oil field in the United States, typically producing approximately 400,000 barrels per day. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline can pump up to 2.1 million barrels of crude oil per day, more than any other crude oil pipeline in the United States.565
The fishing and oil industries remain Alaska's top industrial employers, accounting for over half of the state's industrial employment.566
Alaska has the second smallest state population and the largest land and ranks 28th highest for business costs, based on the cost of labor, energy and taxes.
117 American Samoa DEM Caucus
Who can State Type participate Dem delegates GOP delegates AMERICAN Dem American 3 in the primary SAMOA caucus Somoa does not have party 6 unpledged delegates registration. To participate Total: 9 in the caucus, attendees most declare they are Democrats.
118
Endnotes
1 Los Angeles Times, “Obama's next step an uphill climb,” 28 January 2008. 2 Reuters News, “FACTBOX-State contests ahead and stakes for candidates,” 26 January 2008. 3 The Wall Street Journal, “Strategizing for Super Tuesday,” 28 January 2008. 4 Reuters News, “FACTBOX-State contests ahead and stakes for candidates,” 26 January 2008. 5 The Dallas Morning News, “McCain takes Florida, gains momentum Romney finishes 2nd,” 30 January 2008. 6 The Wall Street Journal, “Strategizing for Super Tuesday,” 28 January 2008. 7 The Wall Street Journal, “Strategizing for Super Tuesday,” 28 January 2008. 8 The Baltimore Sun, “CAMPAIGN FIELD NARROWS EDWARDS, GIULIANI QUIT RACE FOR WHITE HOUSE,” 31 January 2008. 9 The Dallas Morning News, “McCain takes Florida, gains momentum Romney finishes 2nd,” 30 January 2008. 10 Chicago Tribune, “Fields narrow as parties gear up for Super Tuesday,” 31 January 2008. 11 The Wall Street Journal, “Strategizing for Super Tuesday,” 28 January 2008. 12 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama target delegate-rich states in coast-to-coast Super Tuesday contests,” 30 January 2008. 13 The Wall Street Journal, “Strategizing for Super Tuesday,” 28 January 2008. 14 Charleston Gazette, “7 GOP candidates qualify to run on Tsunami Tuesday in W.Va.” 5 January 2008. 15 The New York Times, “Mondale tops Hart in West Virginia popular vote,” June 6, 1984. 16 The New York Times, “Nebraska and W. Virginia Pick Dukakis in Landslides,” May 11, 1988. 17 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report , “West Virginia,” August 19, 1995. 18 The Associated Press State & Local Wire, “Bush, Gore, are presidential favorites; delegates will decide,” May 10, 2000. 19 Almanac of American Politics, “ West Virginia Presidential Politics And Election Returns, December 5, 2007. 20 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 21 Almanac of American Politics: West Virginia State Profile; 2008. 22 Almanac of American Politics: West Virginia State Profile; 2008. 23 Charleston Daily Mail: Economist says West Virginia has good jobs, but needs skilled workers; January 17, 2008’. 24 Energy Information Administration: Annual Coal Report, 2006; http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/acr/acr_sum.html. 25 Charleston Gazette: W.Va. economy reflects shifts, Unemployment at record low, but more jobs in service sector, not manufacturing; 21 September 2007. 26 AP: Study: Estrogen May Help Fight Disease; 9 May 2007. 27 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 28 Los Angeles Times, “Obama's next step an uphill climb,” 28 January 2008. 29 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama target delegate-rich states in coast-to-coast Super Tuesday contests,” 30 January 2008. 30 Associated Press Newswires “With BC-GA-ELN--Georgia Primary” 3 March 2004. 31 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics And Election Returns” Dec 5, 2007. 32 Associated Press Newswires “Georgia primary do or die for Edwards?” 28 February 2004. 33 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics And Election Returns” Dec 5, 2007. 34 The Atlanta Journal – Constitution “Democrats' bellwether in Georgia,” 23 December 2007. 35 Augusta Chronicle “Governor moves up Georgia's primaries” 30 May 2007. 36 The Atlanta Journal – Constitution, “Georgia keeps eye on Iowa picks: What happens today in the Midwest will certainly shape state's Feb. 5 primary”, AARON GOULD SHEININ , 3 January 2008. 37 Boston Globe, “Bay State primary a long shot for key role” 12/1/8/07. 38 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006).
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39 Atlanta-Journal-Constitution: Georgia minorities line up to vote; 1/27/08. 40 Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia's key on Super Tuesday; 01/10/08. 41 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "Drought spurs calls for limits on growth"; 01/13/08. 42 Almanac of American Politics: Georgia State Profile; December 2007. 43 Georgia. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9111246. 44 AP: Ga. Lawmakers Position to Keep Delta HQ; 1/22/08. 45 The Atlanta Journal – Constitution: THE CRISIS OF FORECLOSURE: A SIGN OF THE TIMES: Losing a house to foreclosure is a nightmare for homeowners, and it happens to thousands of people across metro Atlanta every month.; 9 September 2007. 46 The Detroit News: Georgia cracks down on fraud; State makes mortgage shams a crime, leading to dozens of arrests; 29 November 2007. 47 Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Forsyth lands on Forbes' richest county list; 01/23/08. 48 The Atlanta Journal – Constitution: Thompson visit might press immigration issue; 18 October 2007. 49 AP: School districts shying away from Bible classes; 1/14/08. 50 The Washington Post, “Hard Choices on the Path to Feb. 5,” 28 January 2008. 51 Los Angeles Times, “Obama's next step an uphill climb,” 28 January 2008. 52 Associated Press Newswires, “Alabama voter registrations surge as Tuesday primary nears,” 1 February 2008. 53 Associated Press Newswires “Alabama black GOP group launches effort for black primary votes” 10 April 2006. 54 Associated Press Newswires, “Black Alabama political groups split presidential endorsements” 1 December 2007. 55 Associated Press Newswires “Alabama's primary among last in nation” 24 January 2004. 56 The New York Times, “T.V. REVIEWS; 'FRONTLINE' VIEWS ALABAMA PRIMARY” 5 April 1984. 57 The Washington Post, “An Old Democratic Fault Line” January 10, 2008. 58 Associated Press Newswires “Alabama's primary among last in nation” 24 January 2004. 59 USA Today “Low-budget long shot heats up Alabama election // Commissioner vs. senator” 1 June 1992. 60 Associated Press “Democrats, Republicans look at moving Alabama presidential primary” 1 February 1999. 61 Associated Press, “No suspense in Alabama's late presidential primary,” 1 June 2004. 62 Associated Press Newswires, “Alabama's primary among last in nation,” 24 January 2004. 63 Montgomery Advertiser, “Primary buzz builds in Alabama,” 6 January 2008. 64 Birmingham News (Alabama), “The vote counts in Alabama this year Moving primaries up to Feb. 5 puts state in play,” January 13, 2008. 65 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 66 2008 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 67 Associated Press Newswires “Edwards, Democratic presidential hopefuls paying new attention to Alabama” 17 January 2007. 68 The Advocate (Newark, Ohio): Obama has toughest time getting support of African-Americans; 4 December 2007. 69 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education Inc. 70 AP: Key dates in Ten Commandments monument case; Aug 27, 2003. 71 AP: Number of Alabamians over 100 grows; 3 June 2007. 72 AP: Hispanics make up less than 1 percent of Alabama voters; 4 September 2006. 73 Montgomery Advertiser: In Most 'Born Again' State; 7 September 2005. 74 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. 75 Montgomery Advertiser: "State's aging population growing" By Jill Nolin Jan 9, 2008. 76 States News Service: TWO YEARS OF REBUILDING AND RECOVERY IN ALABAMA: FEMA AID AT $946 MILLION; 28 August 2007. 77 AP: Poll shows sharp religious divide in Alabama's presidential race;
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7 November 2004. 78 AP: Alabama ranks 49th in national campaign disclosure study; 17 October 2007. 79 U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis via Office of Gov. Bob Riley; 1/11/08; http://www.governorpress.alabama.gov/pr/pr-2008-01-11-01-poverty_down.asp. 80 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2000 Analysis via Office of Gov. Bob Riley; 1/11/08; http://www.governorpress.alabama.gov/pr/pr-2008-01-11-01-poverty_down.asp. 81 U.S. Census Bureau via Office of Gov. Bob Riley; 1/11/08; ttp://www.governorpress.alabama.gov/pr/pr-2008-01-11-01-poverty_down.asp. 82 The Sun Herald: Taxes are low in Alabama, and it shows; 16 July 2007. 83 2008 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 84 AP: Alabama governor pitches state to embassy officials from 23 countries’ 19 September 2007. 85 The Wall Street Journal: Where Bankruptcies Stay High; 25 July 2007. 86 AP: Alabama, Mississippi alone with full state tax on groceries; 28 April 2007. 87 AP: Governor, budget chairman negotiate over income tax cut; 2 March 2006. 88 Montgomery Advertiser: Workers urged to fight the flab; 18 May 2007. 89 Los Angeles Times, “Obama's next step an uphill climb,” 28 January 2008. 90 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama campaigning Monday in Connecticut,” 31 January 2008. 91 Associated Press Newswires, “Dodd to remain neutral in Connecticut primary,” 1 February 2008. 92 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 93 Associated Press Newswires, “Dodd to remain neutral in Connecticut primary,” 1 February 2008. 94 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama campaigning Monday in Connecticut,” 31 January 2008. 95 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics And Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 96 The Hartford Courant, “IN LOW-KEY STATE RACE, KERRY WINS NON-CANDIDATE LIEBERMAN GETS 5% OF VOTE,” 3 March 2004. 97 The Associated Press State & Local Wire “Bysiewicz, lawmakers call for earlier presidential primary” March 28, 2007. 98 US Fed News “BYSIEWICZ DRAWS ORDER FOR PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY BALLOT” 2 January 2008. 99 The Hartford Courant, “IN LOW-KEY STATE RACE, KERRY WINS NON-CANDIDATE LIEBERMAN GETS 5% OF VOTE,” 3 March 2004. 100 The Associated Press State & Local Wire “Connecticut presidential primary ballot to include 17 candidates” November 19, 2007. 101 Hartford Courant (Connecticut) “CAPITOL BRIEFS” June 2, 2007. 102 Stamford Advocate, “Earlier primary gives Connecticut more clout in presidential picks” , Neil Vigdor, 1/14/08. 103 Stamford Advocate, “Earlier primary gives Connecticut more clout in presidential picks” , Neil Vigdor, 1/14/08. 104 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 105 Almanac of American Politics: Connecticut Profile; December 2007. 106 The Hartford Courant/Center for Survey Research and Analysis via UPI: Poll: Race, gender not issues in Conn; January 27, 2008. 107 Harford Courant: The Dilemma Of Gender And Race; January 27, 2008. 108 Connecticut. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 109 Almanac of American Politics: Connecticut Profile; December 2007. 110 State of CT; http://www.ct.gov/ctportal/cwp/view.asp?a=843&q=246434. 111 Connecticut Post: Study shows poverty drop; accuracy doubted; 29 August 2007. 112 AP: Mortgage foreclosures hitting Connecticut cities hard; 28 October 2007.
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113 Connecticut. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9111242. 114 Almanac of American Politics: Connecticut Profile; December 2007. 115 The Hartford Courant: Educators Address State's Vast Reading Gap; 30 November 2007. 116 Connecticut. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9111242. 117 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 118 Associated Press Newswires, “Delaware's governor endorses Hillary Clinton,” 9 January 2008. 119 Associated Press Newswires “Delaware's GOP primary may be gaining in relevance” 15 October 1999. 120 Associated Press Newswires “Delaware primary not getting hoped-for spotlight” 5 February 2000. 121 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics and Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 122 Los Angeles Times “Today's Delaware Primary Is Barely a Pit Stop in Republican Presidential Race” 8 February 2000. 123 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics and Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 124 Associated Press Newswires “Turnout light in Delaware's first binding presidential primary” 3 February 2004. 125 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics and Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 126 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 127 Almanac of American Politics: December 5, 2007. 128 Delaware. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9111231. 129 Delaware News Journal: The future of Delaware; November 3, 2007; http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071103/NEWS/711030369/1006/NE WS. 130 Delaware Economic Development Office; http://dedo.delaware.gov/information/databook/taxes.shtm 131 Delaware News Journal: Delaware real estate market hits wall as home prices slide; December 16, 2007. 132 AP: Delaware shows record number of foreclosures; 11 July 2007. 133 The News Journal: Recession fears high on worry list in 2008; 12/31/07; http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/BUSINESS/712310386/100 3. 134 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama target delegate-rich states in coast-to-coast Super Tuesday contests,” 30 January 2008. 135 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 136 Chicago Tribune PAY ATTENTION NOW, ILLINOIS VOTERS, AND ACT LIKE KINGMAKERS March 6, 1988. 137 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics and Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 138 Chicago Tribune “WASHINGTON, JACKSON TEST PARTY CLOUT” January 29, 1985. 139 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics and Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 140 Chicago Tribune “Primary takes a nasty turn Brown blasts Clinton, wife over ethics” 16 March 1992. 141 The State Journal-Register (Springfield, IL) “The Illinois primary may be a little late” December 11, 1998. 142 The Oregonian “GORE, BUSH RACK UP WINS IN ILLINOIS PRIMARY ELECTIONS” 22 March 2000. 143 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics and Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 144 The State Journal-Register (Springfield, IL) “GOP leaders hope to increase Illinois' impact in elections” August 19, 1999. 145 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics and Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 146 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006).
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147 Discover Illinois State Website, http://www.state.il.us/kids/learn/doyou/. 148 Doors and Hardware: Fifteen fun facts about Chicago; 1 July 2002. 149 The Record, “Illinois stands in the middle as most average of states; After all, it is the home of Peoria. Stephen Ohlemacher, 5/18/07. 150 US Census: August 9, 2007. 151 Illinois. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved February 1, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 152 Facts About the States, Illinois, Joseph Nathan Kane, H.W. Wilson Company, 1993. 153 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama target delegate-rich states in coast-to-coast Super Tuesday contests,” 30 January 2008. 154 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 155 The Baltimore Sun, “CAMPAIGN FIELD NARROWS EDWARDS, GIULIANI QUIT RACE FOR WHITE HOUSE,” 31 January 2008. 156 Boston Globe, “The Candidates,” Mar 4, 1980. 157 Boston Globe, “The Candidates,” Mar 4, 1980. 158 The Boston Globe: "This time, Massachusetts may be in the mainstream,” March 6, 1996. 159 The Boston Globe: "This time, Massachusetts may be in the mainstream,” March 6, 1996. 160 Boston Herald, “Bush, Tsongas romp in Bay State,” 11 March 1992. 161 The Boston Globe, “This time, Massachusetts may be in the mainstream,” March 6, 1996. 162 The Boston Globe: "This time, Massachusetts may be in the mainstream,” March 6, 1996. 163 Almanac of American Politics, “Massachusetts Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” December 5, 2007. 164 The Associated Press, “Voters hand Kerry big hometown win in Super Tuesday contest,” March 3, 2004. 165 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 166 Stateline.org: For universal health care, two states push big plans http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=270544. 167 MetroWest Daily News: Independent voters may be the key in Massachusetts GOP primary; January 27, 2008. 168 NY Times: Massachusetts Gay Marriage to Remain Legal; June 15, 2007. 169 “Massachusetts." Encyclopædia Britannica. 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 28 Jan. 2008 http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-79353. 170 Commonwealth of Massachusetts; http://www.sec.state.ma.us/cis/cismaf/maprof.htm. 171 Massachusetts. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-79361. 172 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 173 Associated Press Newswires, “Huckabee: Missouri a must-win among Republican primaries,” 29 January 2008. 174 The New York Times, “Bellwether State Fervently Seeks Choice Who Can Win in the Fall,” 1 February 2008. 175 St. Louis Post-Dispatch , “Democrats ignore GOP push for primary,” March 13, 1996. 176 State Capital Bureau “Seventeen candidates have filed for Missouri presidential primary,” November 21, 2003. 177 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, "Missouri," August 18, 1995. 178 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, "Missouri," August 18, 1995. 179 The Kansas City Star, “They've only just begun,” 12 March 1996. 180 St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “Missouri may stand out in crowded primary field next year “JO MANNIES, 4 October 2007. 181 Almanac of American Politics, “Missouri Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” December 5, 2007. 182 St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “Registrations, absentee voting take off St. Louis County reports 1,000 new registrations on Tuesday. Sign-up deadline for Feb. 5 primary is today”, Jo Mannies post-dispatch, 9 January 2008.
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183 St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “Missouri may stand out in crowded primary field next year “JO MANNIES, 4 October 2007. 184 St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “Missouri may stand out in crowded primary field next year “JO MANNIES, 4 October 2007. 185 St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “Obama opens two Missouri campaign offices Other presidential hopefuls are likely to open offices here, too, with big primary date about four months off”, Jo Mannies 26 September 2007. 186 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 187 Almanac of American Politics: Missouri State Profile; December 5, 2007. 188 "Estimates of the Unauthorized Migrant Population for States based on the March 2005 CPS," Pew Hispanic Center, April 26, 2006, http://pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/17.pdf. 189 St. Louis Post-Dispatch: Missouri starts to join the big debate over immigration; 6 July 2006. 190 Kansas City Star: Missouri and Kansas are pushing tougher laws on illegal immigration; January 25, 2007; http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/461726.html. 191 AP: New Missouri abortion law could provide unique court test; 22 July 2007; Chicago Tribune: In Missouri, vote sought on abortion; Proposal for ballot targets coercion; 28 December 2007. 192 Missouri Tourism Dept; http://www.visitmo.com/fastFacts.cfm 193 Missouri. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008. 194 Missouri. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-78802. 195 Missouri Tourism Dept; http://www.visitmo.com/fastFacts.cfm. 196 St. Louis Business Journal: Unemployment up to 5.5% in Mo., Ill.; January 18, 2008. 197 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama target delegate-rich states in coast-to-coast Super Tuesday contests,” 30 January 2008. 198 Los Angeles Times, “Obama's next step an uphill climb,” 28 January 2008. 199 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 200 AP, “New Jersey's move to early presidential primary questioned”, Tom Hester Jr. , December 30, 2007. 201 The Star-Ledger, “Primarily, it's a failure”, March 3, 1996. 202 The New York Times, “Front-Runner Status Helps Bring Dukakis a Sweep of Jersey Vote,” June 8, 1988. 203 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, "New Jersey", Aug. 19, 1995. 204 The Record. Bergen County. “Campaign Almanac.” Jun 06, 1996. 205 Associated Press , “Questions and answers on New Jersey's presidential primary,” January 20, 2008. 206 Almanac of American Politics, "New Jersey Presidential Politics And Election Returns," December 5, 2007. 207 Courier-Post Staff, “N.J. primary date swap may backfire”, RICHARD PEARSALL, 1/13/08. 208 Courier-Post, “Independents could decide N.J. primary”, RICHARD PEARSALL, 1/17/08. 209 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 210 Almanac of American Politics: New Jersey State Profile; December 5, 2007. 211 NJ Star-Ledger: Jersey electorate surges by 48,000 before primary Most keep options open, go independent; January 26, 2008. 212 AP: Most NJ registered voters not affiliated with a party; 25 January 2008. 213 The Star-Ledger: Giuliani stumps in Cape May - Says he has best shot at beating Clinton; 2 October 2007. 214 State of New Jersey: http://www.nj.gov/hangout_nj/assignment_facts.html. 215 New Jersey. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-78242. 216 The Star-Ledger: Manufacturing jobs open state's doors to new immigrants; 27 September 2007. 217 AP, NJ Tops US in Number of Millionaires; January 11, 2008.
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218 Education Week's annual "Diploma Counts" report via The Star-Ledger: Jersey ranks 2nd in graduation; 13 June 2007. 219 Rutgers' Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy via Home News Tribune: Garden State losing appeal for New Jerseyans; 10 October 2007. 220 Reuters: NY, NJ pay highest property taxes in US – study; 12 September 2007. 221 AP, New Jersey becomes first state in 42 years to ban death penalty; 17 December 2007. 222 AP: Corzine suffers rare election loss on stem cell issue;10 November 2007. 223 AP: Poll: New Jerseyans favor gay marriage; 15 August 2007. 224 AP: Lawmakers renew bid to bring pro sports betting to Atlantic City; 24 January 2008. 225 The Tax Foundation: New Jersey Sales Taxes Among Highest in Nation; Cigarette Tax, Nation's Highest; February 2007. 226 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama target delegate-rich states in coast-to-coast Super Tuesday contests,” 30 January 2008. 227 The Oklahoman, “How exits affect Oklahoma vote,” 31 January 2008. 228 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 229 The Oklahoman, “How exits affect Oklahoma vote,” 31 January 2008. 230 The Associated Press State & Local Wire, “Another dud election expected in Oklahoma on Super Tuesday,” August 16, 1999. 231 The Associated Press State & Local Wire, “Another dud election expected in Oklahoma on Super Tuesday,” August 16, 1999. 232 Almanac of American Politics,"Oklahoma Presidential Politics And Election Returns," December 5, 2007. 233 The Associated Press State & Local Wire, “Clark wins Oklahoma primary, barely,” February 3, 2004. 234 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 235 Almanac of American Politics: Oklahoma State Profile; Last Updated December 5, 2007. 236 The Oklahoman: 100 Amazing facts about Oklahoma; 23 November 2007. 237 AP: Okla. Immigration Law Blamed for Death; January 25, 2008. 238 AP: Oklahoma celebrates 100 years of colorful history; 10 November 2007. 239 Oklahoma. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-79011. 240 The Oklahoman: 100 Amazing facts about Oklahoma; 23 November 2007; http://newsok.com/article/3172542/1195795546?mp=0. 241 State of Oklahoma: http://www.ok.gov/index.html. 242 Almanac of American Politics: Oklahoma State Profile; Last Updated December 5, 2007. 243 AP: Oklahoma ranks third in nation in National Guard and Reserve activations; January 7, 2008. 244 The Knoxville News Sentinel, “Tenn. gets candidates’ attention,” 28 January 2008. 245 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 246 The Knoxville News Sentinel, “Tenn. gets candidates’ attention,” 28 January 2008. 247 The Tennessean, "Usually useless Tennessee primary has slim shot at relevance this time" 18 March 2007, LARRY DAUGHTREY. 248 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, "Tennessee," August 8, 1995. 249 The Tennessean, "Usually useless Tennessee primary has slim shot at relevance this time" 18 March 2007, LARRY DAUGHTREY. 250 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, "Tennessee," August 8, 1995. 251 Almanac of American Politics, "Tennessee Presidential Politics And Election Returns," December 5, 2007. 252 The Tennessean, "Usually useless Tennessee primary has slim shot at relevance this time" 18 March 2007, LARRY DAUGHTREY. 253 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 254 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. 255 The Politico: This Day on Capitol Hill: June 1; Tennessee Enters Union; May 28, 2007.
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256 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. 257 “Tennessee." Encyclopædia Britannica. 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 28 Jan. 2008; http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9111252. 258 Almanac of American Politics: Tennessee State Profile: December 2007. 259 Almanac of American Politics: Tennessee State Profile: December 2007. 260 “Tennessee." Encyclopædia Britannica. 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 28 Jan. 2008; http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9111252. 261 AP: New laws include food tax cut, enhanced gun crime enforcement; 29 December 2007. 262 The Tennessean: Illegal Alien act has some employers worried; January 23, 2008. 263 State Comptroller's Office via AP: Key findings in Tennessee's immigration study; 10 August 2007. 264 Associated Press Newswires, “Early voting begins Tuesday for Ark. presidential primary,” 28 January 2008. 265 Los Angeles Times, “Obama's next step an uphill climb,” 28 January 2008. 266 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama target delegate-rich states in coast-to-coast Super Tuesday contests,” 30 January 2008. 267 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 268 The Arkansas Democrat Gazette, “2 native campaigners making fast tracks across state today,” 1 February 2008. 269 The Associated Press, “Democratic chair wants earlier primary in 2004,” March 5, 2004. 270 The Arkansas Democrat Gazette “Thousands register to vote in state's primary” 13 January 2008. 271 Associated Press, “Democratic chair wants earlier primary in 2004,” 5 March 2004. 272 Arkansas Democrat-Gazette “Will Democrats pick 'national Southerner'” March 26, 1991. 273 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, “CALIFORNIA AND BEYOND: ARKANSAS: May 21,” 21 August 1995. 274 The Associated Press State & Local Wire “Arkansas primary may be too late; system needs overhaul, Priest says” February 25, 2000. 275 The Associated Press State & Local Wire “PMs Arkansas AP News Digest” May 24, 2000. 276 Arkansas Democrat-Gazette (Little Rock) “Arkansas voters hand Kerry a victory in primary” May 19, 2004. 277 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics And Election Returns” Dec. 5 2007. 278 The Commercial Appeal “Presidential primary preparations begun -- Arkansas counties testing electronic voting machines” 9 January 2008. 279 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 280 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 281 NY Times: Arkansas Proves Its Worth as a Political Testing Ground; 9 January 2008. 282 Roll Call: Clinton Trying to Reconnect in Ark; 28 March 2007. 283 AP: Study: Hispanics represent small portion of Arkansas voters; 7 December 2007. 284 AP: Beebe halving the grocery tax among top 2007 stories; 27 December 2007. 285 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 286 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. 287 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 288 The Arizona Republic, “MAKE THAT 'ONE VOTE' YOURS,” 1 February 2004. 289 Almanac of American Politics, “Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” Dec 5, 2007. 290 The Arizona Republic, “MAKE THAT 'ONE VOTE' YOURS,” 1 February 2004. 291 Associated Press Newswires, “Kerry wins Arizona primary,” 4 February 2004. 292 The Arizona Republic, “GRABBING THE LIMELIGHT,” 12 February 2003. 293 Almanac of American Politics, “Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” Dec 5, 2007. 294 Roll Call, “Arizona; Presidential Primary Date Moved to Feb. 3,” 13 February 2003. 295 Almanac of American Politics, “Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” Dec 5, 2007. 296 Associated Press Newswires, “Governor vetoes bill eliminating Arizona presidential primary,” 18 April 2003. 297 The Arizona Republic, “ARIZ. DEMS PREPARE TO WIELD THEIR CLOUT,” 1 February 2004.
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298 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” Dec 5, 2007. 299 The San Francisco Chronicle, “Primaries offer Southwest clout and attention,” 4 February 2004. 300 Almanac of American Politics, “Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” Dec 5, 2007. 301 USA Today/ AP “Arizona to Move up Primary to Feb. 5”, Paul Davenport, 8/21/07. 302 The Arizona Republic, “Thousands of Ariz. voters switch parties for primary”, 1/23/08. 303 The Arizona Republic, “Democrats set their sights on Arizona” Anne Ryman, 1/17/08. 304 The Arizona Republic, “Some Latino leaders publicly endorse Sen. Barack Obama” Eugene Scott, 1/23/08. 305 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 306 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 307 AP: Statewide voter registration numbers released for Feb. 5 primary; 1/22/2008. 308 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 309 "Arizona." Encyclopædia Britannica. 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 28 Jan. 2008; http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-260038. 310 Arizona Daily Star: Ladies' choice? It's not necessarily female; 13 November 2007. 311 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 312 AP: Independents must sit out presidential primaries; 26 December 2007. 313 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.; http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0108181.html. 314 US Census: August 9, 2007; http://www.census.gov/Press- Release/www/releases/archives/population/010482.html. 315 The Florida Times-Union: Arizona: Reality or myth; 6 January 2007. 316 The Arizona Daily Star: To recap...; 13 September 2002. 317 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 318 Arizona Farm Bureau: Last updated August 29, 2005; http://www.azfb.org/agfacts/. 319 AP: High-tech companies say they are high-wage too; 23 February 1998. 320 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 321 The Arizona Republic: Top 10 stories chronicle state's changing economy; Dec. 23, 2007. 322 The Arizona Republic: DESPITE DOWNTURN, VALLEY IS NO. 3 IN HOME BUILDING, 1 July 2007. 323 AP: Arizona Unemployment Rises to 4.7 Pct; 1/17/08; http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5463906.html. 324 McClatchy-Tribune Regional News: New report hikes total who lacked health care: Advocates raise Ariz. data cited in recent census study; 21 September 2007. 325 McClatchy-Tribune Regional News: Arizona bankruptcies up 60 percent;15 January 2008. 326 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 327 INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY: The 3:10 From Yuma; 8/30/2007. 328 The Tribune: Public split on illegals enforcement; 28 November 2007. 329 Associated Press Newswires, “Romney plans campaign appearance in Denver,” 1 February 2008. 330 Denver Post, “1st-time politicos fanning fervor for Colo.” 29 January 2008. 331 The Denver Post “Democrats choose officers Perington elected state party chair” March 2, 1997. 332 The Gazette “No suspense in the West/ Bush, Gore coast to primary victories” 11 March 2000. 333 Rocky Mountain News “Caucus shift is no solution” March 25, 2007. 334 Rocky Mountain News (Denver, CO) “March primary gives Colorado chance to show muscle” January 14, 1996. 335 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics And Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 336 Rocky Mountain News (Denver, CO) “Presidential primary cost $ 10 a vote in Denver Low turnout in state, early voting rules prompt some officials to question Expense” March 11, 1996. 337 Denver Post “Bigger states oppose plan for primary reform” 27 July 2000.
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338 The Denver Post “Colo. primary revival? ,” March 8, 2007. 339 Rocky Mountain News “The results are in . . . maybe” 17 January 2008. 340 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics And Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 341 The Associated Press State & Local Wire “Kerry, Salazar big winners in Democratic caucuses” April 20, 2004. 342 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics And Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 343 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 344 The Politico: August 7, 2007; http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=1E569D81-3048- 5C12-00EC8C3C264EA062. 345 Almanac of American Politics: Colorado Profile; December 2007. 346 Rocky Mountain News: Colorado 'solid' for jobs after '07 gains; 1/19/08. 347 Rocky Mountain News: Foreclosures already top 2006 record Colorado on pace for 37,000 filings by the end of year; 13 December 2007. 348 Rocky Mountain News: Jewish Coloradans thriving, growing; December 5, 2007. 349 Almanac of American Politics: Colorado Profile; December 2007. 350 Los Angeles Times, “Obama's next step an uphill climb,” 28 January 2008. 351 Associated Press Newswires, “Obama campaign begins broadcasting ad featuring Sebelius,” 31 January 2008. 352 The Associated Press State & Local Wire “April presidential primary in works for midwestern states” January 27, 1999. 353 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics and Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 354 Topeka Capital-Journal (Kansas) “'08 primary push still a possibility” April 6, 2007. 355 The Wichita Eagle (Kansas) “As caucuses draw near and both parties' races are tight, candidates court the Sunflower State|” January 20, 2008. 356 The Salina Journal (Kansas) “Let's get ready to caucus” January 13, 2008. 357 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 358 American of American Politics: Kansas State Profile; December 5, 2007; http://nationaljournal.com/pubs/almanac/2008/states/ks/ks_profile.htm. 359 Kansas Travel and Tourism Dept. http://www.travelks.com/s/index.cfm?aid=25. 360 Hays Daily News, KS: Campaign fever slow to get started; Jan 5, 2008; http://www.hdnews.net/Story/election010508. 361 American of American Politics: Kansas State Profile; December 5, 2007. 362 Lawrence Journal World: Housing crisis considered at ‘halfway point’; January 7, 2008. 363 Kansas City Star: Missouri and Kansas are pushing tougher laws on illegal immigration; January 25, 2007. 364 US Census Bureau via The Kansas City Star: Missourians are paid more than Kansans, Census Bureau reports; Dec. 29, 2007. 365 Associated Press Newswires, “Poll: McCain leads GOP field, Clinton has edge over Obama,” 31 January 2008. 366 The New York Times, “Minnesota; Caucus or Primary?” February 29, 1992. 367 Star Tribune, “Minnesota caucus goers join trend in favoring Dole over Buchanan,” March 6, 1996. 368 RhodesCook.com 369 The Associated Press State & Local Wire, “'Astounding' caucus turnout promises hard-fought fall campaign,” March 4, 2004. 370 RhodesCook.com 371 Almanac of American Politics: “Minnesota Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” December 5, 2007. 372 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 373 Minnesota." Encyclopædia Britannica. 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 28 Jan. 2008 http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-78766.
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374 Minnesota State Government Online: http://www.state.mn.us/portal/mn/jsp/content.do?programid=536888179&id=- 8542&agency=NorthStar. 375 Minnesota Tourism: http://www.exploreminnesota.com/about/history/index.aspx. 376 Star Tribune: Will youth reshape '08 presidential race?; January 26, 2008. 377 St. Paul Pioneer Press:STATE GROWTH LAGS NATION; MINNESOTA RANKED 30TH IN '06 BY U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT; 8 June 2007. 378 Minneapolis Star Tribune: State jobs picture turns ugly; January 15, 2008. 379 Minneapolis Star Tribune: Metro home prices fell for first time in 20 years; January 17, 2008; http://www.startribune.com/homes/13853516.html. 380 Albuquerque Journal, “Bill & Ted Are Most Excellent for Democrats,” 1 February 2008. 381 Albuquerque Journal, “Tuesday Not So Super for N.M.” 30 January 2008. 382 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, “New Mexico,” August 19, 1995. 383 Santa Fe New Mexican, “Clinton Dole, Nader easily win presidential balloting,” June 05, 1996. 384 The Associated Press State, “Little to spark voter interest in primary,” June 6, 2000. 385 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 386 New Mexico. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-79000. 387 NM Tourism Dept.; http://www.newmexico.org/go/loc/about/page/about-unique.html. 388 AP: Groups want Hispanic affairs office in New Mexico; January 19, 2008. 389 Albuquerque Journal: Hispanics Face More Adversity ; Study finds more economic and educational difficulties for children; 24 May 2007. 390 The Politico: Political veterans battle over N.M. Senate seat; October 8, 2007; http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=818A7F46-3048-5C12-002728EA509860E5. 391 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education. 392 AP: No change in New Mexico's poverty rate last year; 29 August 2007. 393 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama target delegate-rich states in coast-to-coast Super Tuesday contests,” 30 January 2008. 394 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 395 Almanac of American Politics, “New York Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” December 5, 2007. 396 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, "New York", August 19, 1995. 397 The New York Times “ New York Poised to Join Move to Earlier Primary,” March 22, 2007. 398 New York Times, "Bush and Gore Victorious As Insurgent Rivals Fizzle," March 8, 2000. 399 Almanac of American Politics, “New York Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” December 5, 2007. 400 New York Times, "Bush and Gore Victorious As Insurgent Rivals Fizzle," March 8, 2000. 401 The New York Times “ New York Poised to Join Move to Earlier Primary,” March 22, 2007. 402 The New York Times, “Sharpton Claims Success But Reassesses Campaign,” March 3, 2004. 403 The Post Standard/Herald-Journal, “PRIMARY MATTERS; NEW YORK VOTES IN JUST FIVE WEEKS, ON "SUPER DUPER TUESDAY'”, 12/31/07, Delen Goldberg. 404 AP, “New York presidential primary moved to Feb. 5 “, April. 9, 2007. 405 The Post Standard/Herald-Journal, “PRIMARY MATTERS; NEW YORK VOTES IN JUST FIVE WEEKS, ON "SUPER DUPER TUESDAY'”, 12/31/07, Delen Goldberg. 406 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 407 Almanac of American Politics: NY State Profile; December 2007. 408 The Boston Globe: N.Y. dreams of a subway election; 28 November 2007. 409 Almanac of American Politics: NY State Profile; December 2007. 410 USA Today: N.Y. emerges as pivotal primary; January 27, 2008. 411 Brainroom: 2007 Year in Review Briefing Book. 412 AP: Poll: New Yorkers oppose Spitzer's license plan; 15 October 2007. 413 NY State Tourism; http://www.iloveny.com/.
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414 New York. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-271902. 415 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc: New York State Profile; http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0108252.html. 416 Gannett News Service: New York's numbers are numbing; January 5, 2008; http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080105/OPINION/80105032 7/1039. 417 US Fed News: GOV. ELIOT SPITZER APPLAUDS GROWTH IN NEW YORK TOURISM; 11 December 2007. 418 Associated Press Newswires, “Obama endorsed by former ID Gov. Andrus,” 31 January 2008. 419 Almanac of American Politics “Presidential Politics and Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 420 Associated Press Newswires “Idaho's top elections official against western presidential primary plan” 25 October 2005. 421 The Associated Press State & Local Wire “Candidates' wives make campaign's first joint appearance in unlikely place” November 19, 1999. 422 Lewiston Morning Tribune (Idaho) “Turnabout: Let Idahoans help pick the candidates” January 12, 1995. 423 Houston Chronicle “Idaho, Arkansas, Kentucky hold primary battles” 24 May 2000. 424 The Associated Press State & Local Wire “LaRouche added to Democratic beauty contest” April 26, 2004. 425 Dow Jones International News “Bush, Kerry Easily Win Idaho Presidential Primaries” 25 May 2004. 426 The Spokesman-Review “OBAMA EYES IDAHO; Hopes for strong showing in Feb. 5 caucuses” 22 November 2007. 427 The Spokesman Review “Huge turnout marks Gore's Idaho victory Vice president wins two- thirds of delegates in Demo caucuses” 8 March 2000. 428 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 429 Idaho. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 430 Idaho Department of Commerce; http://www.visitidaho.org/about/; ttp://www.visitidaho.org/about/trivia.aspx. 431 Idaho. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-79078. 432 AP: Idaho only U.S. state without a national park; 18 June 2006. 433 American Almanac of American Politics; last updated December 2007. 434 American Almanac of American Politics; last updated December 2007. 435 Idaho Potato Council; http://www.idahopotato.com/media/downloads/IPC-Fact-and-Fun- Sheet.pdf. 436 Grand Forks Herald, “ROMNEY ON TOP IN FIRST N.D. GOP STRAW POLL”, 10/27/07. 437 Associated Press Newswires, “Edwards withdrawal shocks ND backers,” 30 January 2008. 438 Associated Press Newswires, “Sinner: Clinton needs no 'on-the-job training'” 29 January 2008. 439 Grand Forks Herald, “ROMNEY ON TOP IN FIRST N.D. GOP STRAW POLL”, 10/27/07. 440 Associated Press Newswires, “Giuliani departure will benefit McCain, ND Republicans say,” 30 January 2008. 441 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, "North Dakota," August 19, 1995. 442 Houston Chronicle, “Ignored N. Dakota closes primaries,” 14 June 1988. 443 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, “1988 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses: NORTH DAKOTA - March 14,” 29 August 1987. 444 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, “North Dakota Results,” 21 March 1992. 445 Bismarck Tribune, LaRouche on N.D. ballot for Democratic primary,” December 27, 1995. 446 The Associated Press State & Local Wire, Senate whacks money for presidential primary, February 16, 1999. 447 RhodesCook.com
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448 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 449 North Dakota. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9111263. 450 AP: Officials: Come back, North Dakotans; 15 September 2007. 451 North Dakota Tourism: http://www.ndtourism.com/about/funfacts/north-dakota-economy/; http://www.ndtourism.com/about/funfacts/north-dakota-economy/agriculture/. 452 USA Today: North Dakotans rail against magazine; Image of state as an 'emptied prairie' draws strong rebuttals;17 January 2008. 453 North Dakota Tourism: http://www.ndtourism.com/about/funfacts/north-dakota- economy/tourism/. 454 North Dakotans seek salvation for churches; November 6, 2007. 455 North Dakota. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9111263. 456 American Wind Energy Association: http://www.awea.org/faq/wwt_potential.html. 457 AP: Election's a month away, but North Dakotans may vote now; 1 October 2006. 458 The Washington Post, “Hard Choices on the Path to Feb. 5,” 28 January 2008. 459 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 460 The Salt Lake Tribune, “Political backwater no more: Obama, Clinton are first to air ads in Utah”, Thomas Burr, 1/25/08. 461 The Salt Lake Tribune, “Obama cancels Utah visit”, Thomas Burr, 1/29/08. 462 The Salt Lake City Tribune, “Chelsea Clinton to Utahns: 'I am so happy to be here to talk to you about my mom'”, Sheena McFarland, 1/29/08. 463 Deseret Morning News, “Utahns eager to cast ballots”, Dennis Romboy, 1/21/08. 464 The Salt Lake Tribune, “McCain wins Florida primary and possibly Giuliani's backing”, Thomas Burr, 1/30/08. 465 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, "Utah," August 19, 1995. 466 The Associated Press, “Presidential Race Taking Back Seat to Congressional Races in Utah,” 25 March 1996. 467 The Salt Lake Tribune, “Utah's presidential primary,” Mar 10, 2007. 468 Almanac of American Politics, "Utah Presidential Politics And Election Returns," December 5, 2007. 469 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 470 NY Times: All Polls Aside, Utah Is Keeping Faith in Bush; June 4, 2006. 471 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.; http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0108279.html. 472 Almanac of American Politics: Utah State Profile, last updated December 2007. 473 Deseret Morning News: Utah voters shun labels; January 28, 2008. 474 AP: Utah's Home Prices Looking Better than Other States'; November 30, 2007. 475 The Politico: Incumbent challenged over immigration; May 7, 2007; http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=67DCCFCC-3048-5C12-005BACBB2E26527F. 476 Deseret Morning News: Utahns favor local immigration laws, 16 January 2008. 477 The Salt Lake Tribune: Poll reveals high expectation for session - Will Utah lawmakers listen?; 1/20/08. 478 Standard-Examiner: More Utahns out of work; job growth also slows, report says; 16 January 2008. 479 Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton, Obama target delegate-rich states in coast-to-coast Super Tuesday contests,” 30 January 2008. 480 Los Angeles Times, “Obama's next step an uphill climb,” 28 January 2008. 481 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 482 The New York Times “Guess What California Is Dreaming Of Now” 2 March 1999. 483 Los Angeles Times “Local TV to Limit Vote Report Television: Many stations plan updates amid entertainment, citing lack of suspense and better technology.” 2 June 1992. 484 USA Today, “California Moves Up Presidential Primary”, 3/15/07.
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485 Almanac of American Politics, “Presidential Politics And Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 486 Los Angeles Times “Revamp Campaign Funding,” 14 November 2003. 487 Chicago Tribune “Drawn by his message, key Brown boosters in dark about his past” 29 March 1992. 488 Los Angeles Times “Both Parties Favored Perot, Exit Poll Shows Presidency,” 3 June 1992. 489 Associated Press Newswires “Backers of early California presidential primary will try again” 7 August 1998. 490 Presidential Politics And Election Returns “Presidential Politics And Election Returns” December 5, 2007. 491 Agence France-Presse, “URGENT Bush, Gore win California primaries – networks” 8 March 2000. 492 The Oakland Tribune “Hotly contested races motivate state's voters” 22 January 2008. 493 Los Angeles Times, “Is California the new New Hampshire?”, Tony Quinn, July 8, 2007. 494 Fort Wayne Journal Gazette “Gold rush for candidates,” 15 June 2007. 495 Los Angeles Times, “Is California the new New Hampshire?”, Tony Quinn, July 8, 2007. 496 Los Angeles Times, “Is California the new New Hampshire?”, Tony Quinn, July 8, 2007. 497 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 498 Los Angeles Business from BizJournals: California remains most populous state, but growth slows; 12/27/07. 499 AP: California world's sixth-largest economy? Not anymore; January 12, 2007. 500 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 501 USA Today: Tight races make Calif. a bigger catch; January 27, 2008. 502 LA Times: Shut out by GOP, independents may tilt Democratic; January 21, 2008. 503 AP: Barred by GOP, independents may be key to Calif. Democratic race; January 19, 2008. 504 SF Chronicle: Mail vote looming large for primary; 30 November 2007. 505 Field Poll via SF Chronicle: Huckabee leaps to second - behind Giuliani - among GOP hopefuls in state poll; January 20, 2008. 506 Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints via LA Times: California Mormons love that he's seeking the presidency, but they're low-key about it; 18 December 2007. 507 San Jose Mercury News: Women voters hold key to win in California primary; 1/14/08. 508 NY Times: California Gains Clout With Earlier Primary; May 7, 2007. 509 Los Angeles Daily News: YOUNGER VOTERS TAKE A SHOT AT THE STATUS QUO CAMPAIGN: RIGHT OR LEFT, A FRESH POLITICAL PASSION IS SEEN; 9 January 2008. 510 AP: Mail-In Ballots May Slow Calif. Tally; January 17, 2008. 511 Information Please® Database, © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. 512 Financial Times: Recession looms for California and Florida, economists fear; 17 January 2008. 513 DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla research firm via SF Chronicle: Startling jump in California foreclosures; January 23, 2008. 514 California Ag 2006 report; http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/card/pdfs/AgHighlightsBrochure06.pdf. 515 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 516 The Wine Institute: http://www.wineinstitute.org/resources/industryfactsheets/article83. 517 AP: Schwarzenegger reaches landmark deal on greenhouse gas emissions; August 30, 2006. 518 AP: Judge says Calif. has authority to regulate vehicle emissions; 13 December 2007. 519 US Census: August 9, 2007. 520 Census Bureau Facts for Features: Hispanic Heritage Month, September 5, 2006. 521 Public Policy Institute of California, Latino Voters in California, September 2007. 522 The San Francisco Chronicle: Hispanics expected to be state's majority by 2042; 10 July 2007. 523 NY Times: After Bill’s Fall, G.O.P. May Pay in Latino Votes; July 1, 2007. 524 NY Times: In Obama's Pursuit of Latinos, Race Plays Role; January 15, 2008. 525 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain, Romney Seek Command on Feb. 5,” 30 January 2008. 526 Great Falls Tribune, “What does the early caucus mean for the GOP?” 13 January 2008. 527 Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, “Montana,” August 19, 1995.
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528 The Associated Press, ” Montana's GOP caucus tempting target for Ron Paul,” December 25, 2007. 529 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 530 Montana. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-79102. 531 Montana’s Official State Website; http://mt.gov/discover/brief_history.asp. 532 Montana Historical Society: http://www.montanahistoricalsociety.org/education/studentguide/economy.asp. 533 Montana. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 28, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-79102. 534 AP: Montana has high depression rate; June 17, 2007; http://billingsgazette.net/articles/2007/06/17/news/state/40-depression.txt. 535 Independent Record: Few subprime loans in Mont; 01/20/08; http://www.helenair.com/articles/2008/01/20/top/55lo_080120_mortgages.txt. 536 AP: Poll finds increase in Montanans support for war; 31 December 2007. 537 Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, AK, “Candidates target oft-forgotten Alaska for Super Tuesday,” Feb. 1, 2008. 538 The Associated Press, “Alaska Republicans Hold Presidential Caucuses, Straw Poll,” 27 January 1996. 539 Almanac of American Politics, “Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” Dec 5, 2007. 540 The New York Times, “Jackson Group Contests Alaska Caucus Tally,” March 24, 1984. 541 Associated Press as posted in The San Francisco Chronicle, “'Uncommitted' Wins Alaska Demo Caucus,” 4 April 1992. 542 The Associated Press, “Grass-Roots Drive Gives Robertson Victory In Alaska Caucuses,” March 3, 1988. 543 Los Angeles Times, “Many Alaska Democrats Remain Uncommitted in Caucus Voting,” 4 April 1992. 544 Associated Press as posted in The San Francisco Chronicle, “'Uncommitted' Wins Alaska Demo Caucus,” 4 April 1992. 545 The Associated Press, “Alaska Republicans Hold Presidential Caucuses, Straw Poll,” 27 January 1996. 546 Almanac of American Politics, “Presidential Politics And Election Returns,” Dec. 5, 2007. 547 Associated Press Newswires, “Alaska Democrats favor Kerry in caucuses throughout state,” 20 March 2004. 548 Anchorage Daily News, “Alaska moves up presidential caucuses Feb 5,” 30 May 2007. 549 State Department Press Releases And Documents “Campaign Update - Bush Hosts First Re- election Rally as Kerry Wins Wyoming and Alaska Caucuses,” 24 March 2004. 550 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 551 Almanac of American Politics: Last Updated December 5, 2007. 552 Anchorage Daily News: Spiro Agnew -- Alaska's true hero; 9 November 2006. 553 AP: Independent-minded Alaskans shun political party affiliations; 22 October 2006. 554 Alaska Conservation Foundation: http://www.akcf.org/_pages/about_ACF/about_alaska/alaska_trivia.php. 555 Greensboro News & Record: THINK YOU KNOW ALASKA? HOW ABOUT SOME FACTS; 12 March 1995. 556 Arctic National Wildlife Refuge http://www.fws.gov/refuges/profiles/index.cfm?id=75600. 557 Anchorage Convention & Visitors Bureau; http://www.anchorage.net/821.cfm; http://www.anchorage.net/686.cfm. 558 Anchorage Convention & Visitors Bureau; http://www.anchorage.net/821.cfm; http://www.anchorage.net/686.cfm. 559 US Census via Anchorage Daily News: Indigenous Americans; About us; 26 November 2007. 560 The Tax Foundation: State and Local Tax Burden Hits 25-Year High; April 2007.
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561 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via Anchorage Daily News: Inside Alaska business; 28 March 2007. 562 Pacific Business News: Hawaii jobless rate climbs to 2.9%; 12/21/07. 563 Alaska Conservation Foundation: http://www.akcf.org/_pages/about_ACF/about_alaska/alaska_trivia.php. 564 AP: Alaska revenues expected to rise on new tax rate, soaring oil prices; 10 January 2008. 565 Energy Information Administration; January 17, 2008; http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/state/state_energy_profiles.cfm?sid=AK. 566 Manufacturers’ News, Inc.: ALASKA MANUFACTURING JOBS DOWN 1.7% IN 2006 ACCORDING TO STATE INDUSTRIAL DIRECTORY - 5/18/2007.
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