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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) IDR32,500 About Heightened Risks on Asset Quality and Loan Growth

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) IDR32,500 About Heightened Risks on Asset Quality and Loan Growth Indonesia Sector Update 17 April 2020 Financial Services | Banks Indonesia Banks Overweight (Maintained) Stocks Covered 12 Working Against Gravity; Still OVERWEIGHT Rating (Buy/Neutral/Sell): 8/4/0 Maintain OVERWEIGHT, as Indonesia’s banking sector is a proxy to Top Picks Target Price the domestic equities market. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) IDR32,500 about heightened risks on asset quality and loan growth. However, we Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) IDR3,600 believe government stimulus measures may provide a buffer against the Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) IDR6,000 negative impact. Despite a lacklustre outlook, we make no change to our sector weighting, and prefer the bigger-cap picks. Our pecking order is: Bank Permata (BNLI IJ) IDR1,450 BBCA>BBRI>BMRI, and BNLI for the small/mid-cap pick. Loan growth has been decelerating. The COVID-19 pandemic ramped Analyst up in the midst of slower loan growth. In 3Q18 (when loan growth started Christopher Andre Benas slowing down), loans increased by 13% YoY, marking the highest increase +6221 5093 9847 since 2016. 3Q18 was a turning point, and loan growth declined thereafter [email protected] to 6.1% YoY in 4Q19. As COVID-19 continues its global rampage, we believe loan growth may decelerate to below 5-5.5% YoY, ie half of peak Indonesia Research Team levels. This will be the lowest increase ever recorded for Indonesia, after +6221 5093 9888 the 2008 global financial crisis. That said, we expect system NII growth to [email protected] trend lower as loan growth decelerates, while loan yields should be under constant pressure due to the lower interest rate environment. Different banks, different interpretations on stimulus measures. The Loan growth has been decelerating since 3Q18 Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Bank Indonesia (BI) have taken steps to help banks. These include OJK relaxing asset quality assessment 30% and restructuring standards to buffer against asset quality deterioration, and 25% BI paring down policy rates to stimulate loan growth. Additionally, when BI 20% maintained the 7-day repo rate, it also lowered the reserve requirement by 200bps to 3.5%, and loosened its financing-to-funding ratio to improve 15% liquidity. The policy takes effect on 1 May. BI also expects to see liquidity 10% improve (with an extra IDR117trn) after that. As such, we do not expect a 5% liquidity squeeze this time around, compared to the previous financial crisis. 0% 3Q11 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 Downgrading forecasts on decelerating loan growth and asset quality 1Q08 uncertainties. For the banks, the IFRS 9 adjustment this year came with Big 4 Banks (LHS) Industry (LHS) perfect timing – an additional adjustment on capital might help ease pressure from rising CoC. Hence, we expect a mild increase in NPL and Source: Financial Services Authority (OJK), RHB CoC. We do not expect any pressure on capital, as most of the banks in Indonesia are well-capitalised (most banks under our coverage have CAR of >20%, which is much higher than that of their regional peers. With the pandemic, we cut FY20-21F loan growth to 5.3% and 8.1%, from 9.4% and 10.6%, which lowers our NII estimates by 7% and 10%. We also increase impairment charges by 10% for 2020F, which pares down net profit estimates by 12% and 11% for FY20-21F. Changes to our stock calls are on BBRI (now BUY, from Neutral), BBTN (upgraded to NEUTRAL, from Sell), BNGA (downgraded to NEUTRAL, from Buy), and BTPS (cut to NEUTRAL, from Buy). % Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Company Rating Price Target (Downside) Dec-20F Dec-20F Dec-20F Bank BJB Buy 910 1,200 31.9 5.3 0.7 10.7 Bank Central Asia Buy 26,200 32,500 24.0 22.1 3.4 1.1 Bank Danamon Buy 3,980 5,300 33.2 4.9 0.6 7.3 Bank Mandiri Buy 4,210 6,000 42.5 7.1 1.0 6.3 Bank Negara Indonesia Buy 3,980 5,300 33.2 4.9 0.6 7.3 Bank Jawa Timur Buy 535 820 53.3 4.7 0.8 9.3 Bank Permata Buy 1,220 1,450 18.9 21.8 1.4 0.0 Bank Rakyat Indonesia Buy 2,610 3,600 37.9 9.1 1.4 4.3 Bank CIMB Niaga Neutral 700 710 1.4 5.5 0.4 8.3 Bank Pan Indonesia Neutral 745 830 11.4 6.7 0.4 0.0 Bank Tabungan Negara Neutral 900 950 5.6 17.0 0.6 0.4 BTPN Syariah Neutral 2,220 3,000 35.1 12.3 2.7 3.3 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Indonesia Banks Sector Update 17 April 2020 Financial Services | Banks Loan growth has been decelerating since 3Q18 In Figure 1, loan growth peaked in 3Q18, before descending. In 4Q19, loans grew by only 6.1% YoY, marking the slowest increase since 3Q16 despite the expectation of a modest recovery in FY20 – but this was before COVID-19 struck in January. We believe the COVID- 19 pandemic has added pressure on loan growth. Even during the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, industry loans grew 9-10% YoY. In 2008, the growth was marked by an increase in demand for commodities – oil prices shot up to above USD100.00 per barrel, and we were at the brink of a coal and CPO boom. Figure 1: Historical loan growth Figure 2: Historical loan growth by segment (% YoY) 30% 40% 25% 35% 20% 30% 25% 15% 20% 10% 15% 5% 10% 5% 0% 0% 1Q08 3Q08 1Q15 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-10 Mar-13 Mar-16 Mar-19 Mar-20 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-14 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-09 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-19 Big 4 Banks (LHS) Industry (LHS) Working Capital Investment Micro Source: OJK , Bloomberg, RHB Source: OJK, Bloomberg, RHB Figure 3: Loan growth in relation to GDP growth 35.0% 6.22% 7.0% 6.34% 6.18% 31% 6.03% 5.70% 30.0% 5.56% 6.0% 5.50% 5.2% 5.1% 5.2% 26% 4.63% 5.1% 4.9% 5.0% 25.0% 6.01% 25% 5.0% Loan growth during 2019 24% 23% 23% 22% decelerated to a low 6% as banks 20.0% 4.0% were also troubled by limited liquidity, with LDR rising >95% 15.0% 14% 3.0% 12% 12% 10% 10% In 2020F, we believe loan growth 10.0% 8% 8% 2.0% 6% 1.0% will decelerate further but this 5.0% 1.0% should be supported by abundant 5% liquidity 0.0% 0.0% Loan Growth % Real GDP Growth % Source: OJK, BI, RHB Loan growth in 2019 decelerated to a low 6.1% (from 12% in FY18), despite GDP growth being kept near 5% YoY, as banks were also troubled by limited liquidity, with LDR rising >95%. As COVID-19 continues its global rampage, we believe loan growth may decelerate to below 5-5.5% YoY, ie half of peak levels. This will be the lowest increase ever recorded for Indonesia, after the 2008 GFC. However, loan growth will also be supported by stimulus measures from the Government, including the IDR117trn additional liquidity to the system from lower reserve requirements. Excluding the extra liquidity, loan growth may go down as low as 1-3%. See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Indonesia Banks Sector Update 17 April 2020 Financial Services | Banks What is different now? In 2019, uncertainty over the US-China trade war cast a shadow on the global economy, which led to shocks in the emerging markets. This created a multiplier effect that affected Indonesia, as China is one of its major trading partners. Decelerating economic growth in China pulled down commodity prices – ie oil, coal, nickel, and CPO. This impacted Indonesia’s economy, as GDP growth is dependent on commodity prices. Just when we thought the trade war was easing and the political situation was stabilising, COVID-19 struck – and impacted most countries across the world. With economic activities largely shut down across the globe, we should see a decline in working capital loans ahead, followed by a sharp drop in investment loans. During the 2008 global financial crisis, working capital loans did not drop as sharply following the month of the subprime mortgage crisis – there was 30-40% YoY growth in 2H18. Working capital loan growth peaked at 39% in Nov 2008, before falling to -3.1% YoY a year later. In this current cycle, working capital loans grew by 16.9% YoY last December, vs 13-14% a few months before. Additionally, we saw some pick-up in investment loans from 3Q19, before it hit 9.1% YoY in Dec 2019 – a recovery after a period of uncertainty during the presidential election in 1Q-2Q. Although working capital loans are expected to see a V- shaped recovery, we think that it will take a few quarters before the economy can be jumpstarted. Figure 4: China’s YoY loan growth 35% 30% V-shaped recovery post-2008 GFC due to strong commodity prices 25% A rather U-shaped recovery post 20% 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis 15% 2019 loan growth still did not reach levels recorded prior to the US- 10% China trade war, despite massive +6% stimulus measures implemented by 5% local governments to boost the economy 0% Source: EIU, RHB From our analysis of what happened with China in the 1997 crisis and 2008 GFC, the recovery in 1997 for China was much tougher than the case in 2008.
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