DOCSLIB.ORG

Africa in the New World How Global and Domestic Developments Will Impact by 2025

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Africa in the New World How Global and Domestic Developments Will Impact by 2025 Africa in the New World How global and domestic developments will impact by 2025 Jakkie Cilliers As a leading African human security research institution, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) works towards a stable and peaceful Africa characterised by sustainable development, human rights, the rule of law, democracy and collaborative security. The ISS realises this vision by: ■ Undertaking applied research, training and capacity building ■ Working collaboratively with others ■ Facilitating and supporting policy formulation ■ Monitoring trends and policy implementation ■ Collecting, interpreting and disseminating information ■ Networking on national, regional and international levels © 2008, Institute for Security Studies Copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in the Institute for Security Studies, and no part may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission, in writing, of both the authors and the publishers. The opinions expressed do not necessarily refl ect those of the Institute, its trustees, members of the Council or donors. Authors contribute to ISS publications in their personal capacity. ISBN 978-1-920114-48-0 First published by the Institute for Security Studies PO Box 1787, Brooklyn Square 0075 Tshwane (Pretoria), South Africa www.issafrica.org Cover photograph Africanpictures.net Design and layout Marketing Support Services (27 12) 346 2168 Printing Business Print Centre Africa in the New World How global and domestic developments will impact by 2025 Jakkie Cilliers Monograph 151 October 2008 Contents About the author . v List of fi gures and tables . vi Chapter 1 Introduction . 1 Limits to growth . 2 Time horizon . 3 The future . 4 Content structure . 5 Chapter 2 Megatrend One The global shift of power from West to East . 7 The (relative) decline of the West . 7 The rise of the rest . 18 Chapter 3 Megatrend Two The impact of climate change . 29 The limits of growth . 29 Impact on Africa . 32 Interconnected challenges . 32 Chapter 4 Megatrend Three Globalisation and state power . 35 Distributed power . 35 A new global power . 37 Monograph 151 i Africa in the New World A return of state power? . 38 Developed versus developing countries . 40 Ideology and Africa . 42 Civil society . 43 Globalisation and geopolitics . 44 Chapter 5 Megatrend Four Interdependence and complexity . 45 African connections . 46 Implications for governance . 47 A global defi cit in management? . 49 Towards a global order . 52 Global inequality on the decline? . 53 A concentration of riches . 55 Chapter 6 African Variable One A growing and dynamic population . 57 Africa’s demographic transition . 58 Africa’s youth bulge . 61 HIV/AIDS . 62 Urbanisation, poverty and insecurity . 64 Skills loss . 65 Chapter 7 African Variable Two Trade, aid and growth . 67 Commodities-based economic growth . 67 Oil, energy and growth . 76 Aid . 81 Chapter 8 African Variable Three Democratisation and governance . 91 Progress over several decades . 91 ii Institute for Security Studies Jakkie Cilliers Democratisation for Africans? . 94 Corruption . 96 Chapter 9 African Variable Four Peace and stability . 99 Impact of democracy and external peacemaking . 101 African leadership . 103 Alarmism and despondency . .106 Policing Africa . 107 Global insecurity on the rise? . 108 Chapter 10 The importance of regional integration for African development . 111 Political solidarity versus economic reality . 112 North Africa and the Horn . 114 A sub-regional imperative . 115 Chapter 11 Conclusion . 117 Bad news sells . 118 Key global trends . 119 China and Africa . 120 India and the vision of a developmental state . 122 Global threats to prosperity . ..
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Norm to the International Community's Response to the Humanitarian
    Application of the ‘Responsibility to Protect’ norm to the International Community’s Response to the Humanitarian Crises in Zimbabwe and Darfur. by Patrick Dzimiri Student Number: 28457600 A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree: Doctor Philosophiae (DPhil) International Relations in the Department of Political Sciences at the UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA FACULTY OF HUMANITIES SUPERVISOR: DR YK. SPIES February 2016 DECLARATION I hereby declare that the dissertation submitted for Doctor Philosophiae (DPhil) International Relations at the University of Pretoria, apart from the help of the recognised, is my own work and has not been formerly submitted to another university for a degree. Patrick Dzimiri February 2016. Signature………………………. Date……………………… i ABSTRACT The Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) is an interdisciplinary normative framework that reconceptualises state sovereignty as a responsibility rather than a right. It obliges states to protect their people from humanitarian catastrophe, and in the event of state failure or unwillingness to heed this responsibility, requires of the broader international community to assume the residual duty to protect. When the principles of RtoP were endorsed by world leaders at the United Nations’ 2005 World Summit, it seemed as though the normative regime was gaining currency in international relations. However, the operationalization of RtoP continued to be dogged by controversy and conceptual ambiguity. This prompted UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon in January 2009 to appeal to the international community to strengthen the “doctrinal, policy and institutional life” of the norm. This study responds to Ban’s call and seeks to complement efforts of scholars across the world to refine the conceptual parameters of RtoP.
    [Show full text]
  • Africa Report
    PROJECT ON BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD AFRICA REPORT Second Quarterly Report on Africa April to June 2008 Volume: 1 Reports for the period April to May 2008 Principal Investigator: Prof. Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani Contributors Abbas S Lamptey Snr Research Associate Reports on Sub-Saharan AFrica Abdirisak Ismail Research Assistant Reports on East Africa INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD AFRICA REPORT Second Quarterly Report on Asia April to June 2008 Reports for the period April to May 2008 Volume: 1 Department of Politics and International Relations International Islamic University Islamabad 2 BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD AFRICA REPORT Second Quarterly Report on Africa 2008 Table of contents Reports for the month of April Week-1 April 01, 2008 05 Week-2 April 08, 2008 63 Week-3 April 15, 2008 120 Week-4 April 22, 2008 185 Week-5 April 29, 2008 247 Reports for the month of May Week-1 May 06, 2008 305 Week-2 May 12, 2008 374 Week-3 May 20, 2008 442 Country profiles Sources 3 4 BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD Weekly Presentation: April 1, 2008 Sub-Saharan Africa Abbas S Lamptey Period: From March 23 to March 29 2008 1. CHINA -AFRICA RELATIONS WEST AFRICA Sierra Leone: Chinese May Evade Govt Ban On Logging: Concord Times (Freetown):28 March 2008. Liberia: Chinese Women Donate U.S. $36,000 Materials: The NEWS (Monrovia):28 March 2008. Africa: China/Africa Trade May Hit $100bn in 2010:This Day (Lagos):28 March 2008.
    [Show full text]
  • Fall 2011 • Volume Ix
    FALL 2011 • VOLUME IX Fall 2011 • Volume IX EDITORS’ NOTE 4 OBAMA'S COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY STUART GOTTLIEB 5 THE CHina SYDNROME: THE EffecTS OF CHINESE INVESTmenT ON GoveRnance IN AFRIA MICHAEL CUSTER 11 THE CROSSRoaDS OF JUSTICE: WAR AND Peace IN LIBERIA DANIELLA MONTEMARANO 42 THE ImpacT OF UNION ON STATE DEBT AURELLE AMRAM 53 ValuaBLE Violence: THE ROLE OF REBellion IN SepaRATIST MovemenTS MICHELLE HOEFER 89 THE ImpacT OF Legal ORigin ON CONSTITUTional PRoviSIONS SARAH WALTON 108 Two SIDES OF THE COIN: HUMAN RIGHTS LevelS IN HOST AND INVESTOR COUNTRIES AS DETERminanTS OF FOReign DIRecT INVESTmenT CHERE SEE 133 This publication is published by New York University students. NYU is not responsible for its contents. 4 EDITORIAL BOARD EDITORS’ NOTE The articles in the Journal of Politics & International Affairs do not represent an agreement of beliefs and methodology. Readers are not expected to concur with all the opinions and research contained within these pages; the Journal seeks to inform and inspire the NYU community by presenting a wide variety of topics and opinions from a similarly broad range of ideologies and methods. Manuscripts submitted to the Journal of Politics & International Affairs are handled by an editorial board at New York University. Papers are submitted via e-mail and selected after several rounds of reading by the staff. Final selections are made by the editors-in-chief. Papers are edited for clarity, readability, and grammar in multiple rounds, during which at least three editors review each piece. Papers are assigned on the basis of fields of interest and expertise of the editors, in addition to a variety of other considerations such as equalization of the workload and the nature of the work necessary.
    [Show full text]
  • The Arms Trade Treaty: Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Prospects for Arms Embargoes on Human Rights Violators
    The Arms Trade Treaty: Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Prospects for Arms Embargoes on Human Rights Violators David B. Kopel,* Paul Gallant** and Joanne D. Eisen*** Abstract: Advocates of the proposed United Nations Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) promise that it will prevent the flow of arms to human rights violators. This Article first examines the ATT and observes that the ATT, if implemented as promised, would require dozens of additional arms embargoes, including embargoes on much of Africa. The Article then provides case studies of the current supply of arms to the dictatorship in Zimbabwe and to the warlords in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Article argues that the ATT would do nothing to remediate the conditions that have allowed so many arms to be acquired by human rights violators. The ATT would have no more effective force than the embargoes that are already imposed by the U.N. Security Council; therefore U.N. member states, including China, which violate current Security Council embargoes, could just as well violate ATT embargoes. Accordingly, the ATT is a distraction, and human rights activists should instead examine alternative methods of addressing the problem of arms in the hands of human rights violators. At the end of this Article, there is an abstract in Spanish, and a detailed summary of the Article in French. * Adjunct Professor of Advanced Constitutional Law, Denver University Sturm College of Law. Research Director, Independence Institute, Golden, Colo.; Associate Policy Analyst, Cato Institute, Washington, D.C. We would like to thank Dave Heal (University of Michigan Law School, class of 2010) and Trevor Burrus (Denver University Sturm College of Law, class of 2010) for research assistance.
    [Show full text]
  • Mining, Resources & Underdevelopment
    Review of African Political Economy No. 117:361-366 © ROAPE Publications Ltd., 2008 Scrambling to the Bottom? Mining, Resources & Underdevelopment Ray Bush The 21st century race for resources and territory has simultaneously induced cries of optimism from donors and the international agencies, but there is despair from critics and many on the continent: that plunder and looting continues in a manner reminiscent of the colonial past (Bond, 2006; Bush, 2007). But is the current scramble similar to the previous looting of African resources? Are there no benefits from the demand for Africa’s resources? Can the current dynamic be characterised as a scramble or, is it simply ‘business as usual’ for the good of civil society? Africa holds 42% of the world’s share of bauxite; 38% of its uranium; 42% of the world’s reserves of gold; 73% of its platinum; 88% of diamonds. The continent also has enormous reserves of non-ferrous metals like chromite (44%), manganese (82%), vanadium (95%) and cobalt (55%). Despite this abundance of resource wealth – and these figures probably underestimate resource availability because of limited surveying – there is little evidence that raw materials are translated into growth with justice and equality. And there is only limited evidence that strategies to convert local resources nationally, or to pool them regionally, will generate real value added for Africans. For while the continent’s average economic growth rates have been high since 2000 compared with previous decades due almost entirely to the unprecedented price of crude oil and metals, African raw material producers do not benefit from the resource scramble.
    [Show full text]
  • OP 36 APRM Fritz.Indd
    OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 36 Governance and APRM Programme July 2009 People Power: How Civil Society Blocked an Arms Shipment for Zimbabwe Nicole Fritz s ir a f f A l a n o ti a rn e nt f I o te tu sti n In rica . th Af hts Sou sig al in Glob African perspectives. ABOUT SAIIA The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) has a long and proud record as South Africa’s premier research institute on international issues. It is an independent, non-government think-tank whose key strategic objectives are to make effective input into public policy, and to encourage wider and more informed debate on international affairs with particular emphasis on African issues and concerns. It is both a centre for research excellence and a home for stimulating public engagement. SAIIA’s occasional papers present topical, incisive analyses, offering a variety of perspectives on key policy issues in Africa and beyond. Core public policy research themes covered by SAIIA include good governance and democracy; economic policy-making; international security and peace; and new global challenges such as food security, global governance reform and the environment. Please consult our website www.saiia.org.za for further information about SAIIA’s work. This paper is the outcome of research commissioned by SAIIA’s Governance and African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) Programme. ABOUT THE GOVERNANCE AND APRM PROGRAMME Since 2002, SAIIA’s Governance and APRM Programme has promoted public debate and scholarship about critical governance and development questions in Africa and beyond. The programme seeks to improve public policymaking by linking governments, citizens and researchers through a variety of publications, training workshops and research fellowships.
    [Show full text]
  • Angola's Management of Relations with China
    Corkin, Lucy (2011) Uncovering Agency: Angola's Management of Relations with China. PhD Thesis, SOAS (School of Oriental and African Studies) http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/13596 Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non‐commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this thesis, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full thesis title", name of the School or Department, PhD Thesis, pagination. UNCOVERING AGENCY: ANGOLA’S MANAGEMENT OF RELATIONS WITH CHINA Lucy Corkin Thesis submitted for the degree of PhD in Politics 2011 Department of Politics and International Studies School of Oriental and African Studies University of London 2 Declaration for PhD thesis I have read and understood regulation 17.9 of the Regulations for students of the School of Oriental and African Studies concerning plagiarism. I undertake that all the material presented for examination is my own work and has not been written for me, in whole or in part, by any other person. I also undertake that any quotation or paraphrase from the published or unpublished work of another person has been duly acknowledged in the work which I present for examination.
    [Show full text]
  • To Chinese Arms
    LETTER 'NO' TO CHINESE ARMS Zimbabwe's regime got a taste of the international isolation critics say it deserves, with its neighbors blocking a shipment of Chinese arms to prevent them from being used against Robert Mugabe's opponents. China finally said the weapons might be returned home. Union, church and human rights leaders across southern Africa rallied against allowing the Chinese freighter An Yue Jiang to dock at ports in any of landlocked Zimbabwe's neighbours. In the end, governments usually unwilling to criticize Mugabe barred the ship at a time when Zimbabwe's government is being accused of cracking down on dissenters. Church leaders in Zimbabwe said people were being tortured, abducted and murdered in a campaign of retribution against opposition supporters following the March 29 election, and urged international intervention. In Washington, the State Department said it had urged countries in southern Africa–notably South Africa, Mozambique, Angola and Namibia–not to allow the ship to dock or unload. It also asked the Chinese government to recall the vessel and not to make further weapons shipments to Zimbabwe until the postelection crisis is resolved. China insisted the shipment of mortar grenades, ammunition and other weapons was part of "normal military product trade between the two countries," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said. A spokesman for Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai welcomed the development. "It would be pleasing to the people of Zimbabwe to note that there has been solidarity on the continent to stop the arming of the (Mugabe) regime at the expense of the people," said the aide, Nelson Chamisa.
    [Show full text]
  • SCSL Press Clippings
    SPECIAL COURT FOR SIERRA LEONE OUTREACH AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE The Special Court said goodbye to interpreters at a sendoff on Friday evening. PRESS CLIPPINGS Enclosed are clippings of local and international press on the Special Court and related issues obtained by the Outreach and Public Affairs Office as at: Monday, 30 June 2008 Press clips are produced Monday through Friday. Any omission, comment or suggestion, please contact Martin Royston-Wright Ext 7217 2 Local News Human Rights Report Says Conditions in Prisons Terrible / Awoko Page 3 Sierra Leone Marks UN Day Against Torture / Cotton Tree News Page 4 International News UNMIL Public Information Office Complete Media Summaries / UNMIL Pages 5-6 Zim Running Guns for Africa / The Zimbabwean Pages 7-9 UN-Backed Tribunal Trying Khmer Rouge Leaders Calls for More Funds / UN Page 10 Khmer Rouge Appeal Case to Test Limits of International Law / AFP Pages 11-12 3 Awoko Monday, 30 June 2008 4 Cotton Tree News Friday, 27 June 2008 Sierra Leone marks UN Day against Torture Written by Zainu Bassie United Nations Integrated Office in Sierra Leone in collaboration with the Freetown Human Right Committee recently commemorated the UN Day against Torture. Sulaiman Jabbati, Acting Chairman for the Freetown Human Right Committee said Sierra Leone was among the one hundred and forty five countries that were signatories to the Convention against Torture. Mr. Jabbati said in 1999, Sierra Leone ranked top among countries with record of Torture in the world. Kailahun District also observed the World Day against Torture in the town of Pendembu. Mohamed F.
    [Show full text]
  • Brake Dissertation FINAL
    RULES AND REBELS: DISCOURSE, DOMESTIC POLITICS, AND THE DIFFUSION OF LAW A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Benjamin Turner Brake January 2011 © 2011 Benjamin Turner Brake RULES AND REBELS: DISCOURSE, DOMESTIC POLITICS, AND THE DIFFUSION OF LAW Benjamin Turner Brake, Ph. D. Cornell University 2011 This dissertation examines the role of discourse and domestic structure in the diffusion of norms and the conditions under which the policy recommendations of transnational advocates transplant to the domestic law of a target state. In particular, it examines contemporary episodes of transnational pressure that either succeeded or failed to bring a country’s legal commitments more closely in line with the constitutive and regulative norms of international society. This research challenges mainstream international relations literature on the subject, which relies on either a rationalist logic of norm diffusion or the constructivist logic of norm localization. In addition, this work expands beyond sociological institutionalist literature that leaves largely unexamined the agency of domestic actors in the promotion and resistance of normative change. Instead, I explore the communicative interactions among transnational actors, domestic reformers, and domestic reactionaries (so-called “legal nationalist rebels”) to show that normative change is determined not only by coercion or emulation, but also by the discursive practices of these actors. Through a study of legal development in a civil law state—China—and common law state—South Africa—this dissertation demonstrates that transnational discourse can both create and block channels for the diffusion of ideas about best practices, legitimacy, and perceptions of policy problems.
    [Show full text]
  • Arms Transfers to Zimbabwe: Implications for an Arms Trade Treaty, SIPRI Background Paper
    SIPRI Background Paper March 2011 atRmS RanSfeRS to SU mmaRy w Zimbabwe has suffered from ZImBaBwe: ImPlIcatIonS high levels of political violence since 2000. While some states foR an aRmS tRade tReaty and the European Union (EU) have responded by imposing arms embargoes, other states lukas jeuck* have expressed no concerns about the situation. The most prominent supplier I. Introduction of arms to Zimbabwe has been China, which supplied more Since 2000, Zimbabweans have suffered from high levels of political violence, than one-third of the volume of human rights violations and intimidation perpetrated by security forces Zimbabwe’s major weapons loyal to President Robert Mugabe and supporters of the governing Zimbabwe between 1980 and 2009. Russia African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF).1 In response, a number has identified Zimbabwe as a of states and the European Union (EU) have imposed arms embargoes on potential market for its arms, Zimbabwe and targeted sanctions on Mugabe and members of his regime. but has yet to make many However, such sanctions have not been universally adopted. For example, deliveries. While the United a clear divide separates the permanent members of the United Nations Kingdom was a major supplier Security Council. Three of the permanent five members of the council have in the 1980s and 1990s, it has since stopped selling arms to imposed arms embargoes on Zimbabwe: France and the United Kingdom Zimbabwe. (under an EU arms restriction) in 2002, and the United States in 2003.2 In The UK’s change in behaviour contrast, China and Russia have voiced no concerns about the situation in is linked to unilateral and Zimbabwe and continue to supply arms and military equipment.
    [Show full text]
  • Och-Ziff Briefing
    Sanctions, violence, pensions and Zimbabwe A New York hedge fund, a London-traded mining company and the stealing of an election? July 2013 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction Rights & Accountability in Development (RAID), a British NGO working on business conduct and human rights, is calling for an investigation by the US Treasury, under US sanctions against Zimbabwe, into payments made by a subsidiary of Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (Och-Ziff), a New York hedge fund. In the 2008 election, ZANU-PF’s Robert Mugabe retained the presidency of Zimbabwe after a campaign of horrific brutality against Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) supporters. According to media reports and senior MDC officials, the violence was financed by the money originating with Och-Ziff and channelled to the Mugabe government via a loan as part of a lucrative platinum deal by a UK-traded mining company. In April 2008, the UK-registered and traded Central African Mining & Exploration Company plc (CAMEC) acquired a majority holding in a Zimbabwean platinum joint venture. As part of this transaction, CAMEC advanced a US$100 million loan to enable its newly acquired subsidiary to ‘comply with its contractual obligations to the Government of the Republic of Zimbabwe’. Regulatory news releases indicate that the money for the loan came from OZ Management LP, a subsidiary of Och-Ziff. The Mugabe regime’s campaign of violence subverted democratic elections. Up to 200 people were killed, 5,000 more were beaten and tortured, and 36,000 people were displaced. An opposition spokesman has stated: ‘all the heartache, pain, gerrymandering, violence, intimidation, repression that took place at the 2008 election is directly linked to that 100 million.’ The US Ambassador to Zimbabwe in 2008, James McGee, condemned the ‘systematic campaign of violence designed to block this vote for change...orchestrated at the highest levels of the ruling party.’ The electoral violence led to an extension of US sanctions against Zimbabwe, which remain in force.
    [Show full text]