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The Science Fiction Effect

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The Science Fiction Effect THE SCIENCE FICTION EFFECT An alternative look at the enduring role of science fiction in today’s global defence and security March 2021 Delphine Ryan Bsc (Hons) IEng MRAeS Knowledge Transfer Specialist www.delphineryan.co.uk [email protected] CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 3 2. IDENTIFIED EXISTING AND FUTURE THREATS .................................. 5 2.1 Nuclear weapons and deterrent ........................................................................ 5 2.2 Development of hypersonic weapons ............................................................. 6 2.3 Explosives ........................................................................................................... 7 2.4 Deliberate misuse of biology ............................................................................ 7 2.5 Threats to precise timing systems .................................................................... 7 2.6 Cyber security, threats, attacks and deception ................................................ 8 2.7 Space weather ................................................................................................... 10 2.8 Conflicts in outer space ................................................................................... 11 2.9 Disruptive technologies ................................................................................... 13 3. THE ROLE OF SCIENCE FICTION IN DEFENCE AND SECURITY 14 3.1 The essence of science fiction ........................................................................ 15 3.2 Science fiction and disruptive technologies .................................................. 16 3.3 Science fiction and the Defence Lines of Development (DLODs) .......... 19 4. CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................... 21 5. LIST OF REFERENCED NON-FICTION AND FICTION BOOKS ...... 23 6. REFERENCE LIST .............................................................................................. 24 2 1. INTRODUCTION With the proliferation of non-military and non-governmental individuals, groups and organisations actively involved in security, defence and space manufacturing and operations, and with the abundant commercialisation of readily available and relatively cheap equipment (which in the past would have been only available to the military), Earth governments of all shapes and sizes are having little choice but to re-evaluate their defence and security strategies in the face of existing and future threats (imaginary or real). In essence, the global defence and security sectors – which in the past have been almost exclusively within the purview of militaries and governments – are gearing up for a watershed transformation with significant ramifications: a subject matter currently undergoing intensive scrutiny and discussion in academic, military and governmental circles around the world - the United Kingdom being no exception. For instance, in September 2020, the Royal Aeronautical Society – the world’s oldest aerospace learned society, together with the Royal United Services Institute - the world's oldest independent think tank on international defence and security, jointly hosted the Extreme threats to the UK virtual conference. More recently, in March 2021, the same Institute together with the French Ecole de Guerre hosted another virtual symposium, Winning without victory? Navigating indecisiveness in endless wars. Both these conferences raised similar concerns about the status quo of global defence and security, and furnished a taste of the many conversations taking place. This paper aims to propound an alternative outlook on the above situation by bringing some light on the enduring role that science fiction continues to play in the defence and security arena together with its real potential to help tackle, for the greater good, some of the existing and future threats which have been identified across the industry, such as: Nuclear weapons and deterrent Development of hypersonic weapons Explosives Deliberate misuse of biology Threats of precise timing systems Cyber security, threats, attacks and deception Space weather Conflicts in outer space Disruptive technologies 3 In the last few decades, we have witnessed technology evolving at a vertiginous rate. The emergence of a new cyber age, with the rapid and significant developments in the fields of computing (quantum and traditional), communications, big data, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and machine learning – to name but a few – has opened the door to a new form of battlefield where warfare no longer takes place with solid weapons or troops but instead is fought across the ether. Moreover, western military power is no longer a given, since other countries around the world have raised their standards and developed their own civilian and military capabilities. In the civilian domain, commercial enterprises and single individuals have easy access to what, in the past, would have been only accessible to the military. Unmanned air vehicles (drones), being one such example. The Integrated Operating Concept 20251 recently published by the Ministry of Defence, introduces a new approach to the utility of armed forces in an era of persistent competition and a rapidly evolving character of warfare. This new viewpoint represents the most significant change in UK military thought in several generations. The approach acknowledges that the “pervasiveness of information and the pace of technological change are transforming the character of warfare” and that “we need a new model for deterrence that takes account of the need to compete”. Taking a global view, one could surmise that the UK is not alone in the assumption of this new outlook. It is likely that other nations from East to West and North to South concur with the same observations, or have come to similar conclusions. Faced with such dramatic changes, one could ponder if all extreme technological threats could be countered by a nuclear deterrent (as in the case of the UK’s submarine nuclear deterrent programme), or if more suitable alternatives exist (such as all nations of the world simply getting on with each other). Over the years, the concepts of war, defence and security have become somewhat interchangeable yet the meaning of each term is quite different from the other, and each activity does not serve the same purpose. War means neither defence nor security. Defence means neither war nor security. Security means neither war nor defence. But each activity may include elements of the others. The word war in its meaning of “a state of open, armed, often prolonged conflict carried on between nations, states, or parties; military science”, can be traced back to the Indo- European root wers–,"to confuse, mix up." 2 4 On the other hand, defence is defined as “the action of defending from (protect from harm or danger) or resisting attack” and “military measures or resources for protecting a country”. From the Latin dēfendere, “to ward off”. 3 And lastly, security means “something that gives or assures safety, e.g. measures adopted by a government to prevent espionage, sabotage, or attack.” This word is derived from the Latin securus meaning “without care (as in feeling no apprehension)”. These three words are evidently not interchangeable since they do not mean the same thing and are not synonymous. The idea that war and conflict is inevitable in order to defend or secure someone or something is a fallacy. It is possible to defend or to secure without continuing conflict or seeking war. Could it be possible that the achievement of real security and defence for a group or nation be achieved through conflict resolution and cessation rather than conflict creation and perpetuation? Setting philosophy and semantics aside, the following section briefly outlines some of the extreme technological threats – real or fancied - currently perceived as requiring urgent attention. 2. IDENTIFIED EXISTING AND FUTURE THREATS 2.1 Nuclear weapons and deterrent As a responsible nuclear weapon state and party to the Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the UK remains committed to the long-term goal of a world without nuclear weapons4. However, since 1969, the Royal Navy has delivered the continuous-at-sea nuclear deterrent in the form of at least one of four nuclear-armed submarines on patrol for 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. The Vanguard-class submarines which currently accomplish this deterrent will soon be replaced by the new Dreadnought- class submarines which, once entered into service, are intended to last until 2060. As of 2020, the Dreadnought-class procurement programme is the biggest spend in the nation’s defence budget. Thus, it begs the question: Will nuclear weapons still be relevant in 2060? From a philosophical perspective, could a weapon which can destroy all life and against which there is no defence, really be classified as a weapon? And if futile against threats such as cyberattacks or anti-satellite weapons, does it still have a place in military arsenals other than for the obliteration of the human race? 5 What would a world where every nation has nuclear weapons look like? Conversely, in the next 40 years could all nations have got together and settled their differences thus dispensing with the fancied need for nuclear weapons? (Now we enter the realm of Star Trek – all Earth nations getting
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