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Michele Boldrin Spring 2017 a Primer on Growth Theory Michele Boldrin Spring 2017 A Primer on Growth Theory Scope The purpose of this course is to introduce you to some of the basic dynamic general equilibrium concepts and models I believe useful to start understanding economic growth and macroeconomic fluctuations. No representative agent with log utility and a Cobb-Douglas production function will be found in this class, you have already seen them. Apart from discussing extensively the little we know, and the lot we do not know, about the empirics of economic growth and business cycles, we will make an effort to understand how to model heterogeneous agents and a disaggregated (or complicated if you like) production structure. Organizational details We will meet six times, for three hours each (with a break in the middle …). We will dedicate each meeting to a specific topic or issue. The first half of the meeting will be dedicated to “teaching the topic” and the second half to “discussing the topic”. I presume you will do some reading before each meeting and I will assign you specific suggestions as the time comes. There are no assigned textbooks, but a number of reference texts are listed below. I will be mailing you additional reading materials week by week, depending on how fast we proceed. Grading I will give you a take-home exam at the end of the course. Topics 1. Growth and Cycles, data and historical facts. The theory of growth and the theory of cycles. Understanding the aggregate neoclassical growth model and the origin of the so-called “new growth theory”. Schumpeter vs the Classics. 2. Where growth theory did stand before new growth theory came around (i.e. before Lucas (1988)). What was known to macroeconomists (e.g. variants of the Solow model) and what was known to economic theorists (e.g. from Von Neumman to the Turnpike literature). 3. Equilibrium growth under perfect competition and a constant technology. Balanced growth without technological progress. Equilibrium growth under perfect competition and a non- 1 constant technology. The possibility of growth cycles. 4. Detour: production and growth in an overlapping generation model. Various cases. 5. Factor-saving innovations and biased technological change. A smorgasbord of endogenous growth model. 6. Trade and growth, an introduction to the issues. Assorted Reading Material Athreya, B.K. (2013), Big Ideas in Macroeconomics , MIT Press Boldrin, M. (2008, 2016), “The Theory of Business Cycles: A Personal Perspective”, mimeo Boldrin, M. (2009), “Growth and Cycles, in the Mode of Marx and Schumpeter”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy 56 , 416-442 Boldrin, M. and D.K. Levine (2002), “Factor Saving Innovation”, Journal of Economic Theory 105, 18-41. Boldrin, M. and A. Rustichini, ``Growth and Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models with Externalities'', Econometrica 62 , 323-342. Boldrin, M. and J. Scheinkman. (1988) “Learning by Doing, International Trade and Growth: A Note” in P.Anderson et al. (eds.) The Economy as an Evolving Complex System , New York, Addison Wesley, 1988. Cass, D., (1965), “Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation,” Review of Economic Studies 32 , 233-240. Dolmas, J. (1996), ``Endogenous Growth in Multisector Models'', International Economic Review 37 , 403-421. Gale, D. (1960), The Theory of Linear Economic Models , New York: McGraw-Hill. Harberger, A.C. (1998), “A Vision of the Growth Process”, American Economic Review 88 , 1- 32. Hayek, F. A. (1941), The Pure Theory of Capital , The Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago IL, reprinted by Midway Reprint, 1975. (Part III, Chapters XIX-XXV only). Kehoe, T., D. Levine and P. Romer (1990), ``Determinacy of Equilibria in Dynamic Models with Finitely Many Consumers'', Journal of Economic Theory 50 , 1-20. 2 Koopmans, T. C., (1965), “On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth,” In The Econometric Approach to Development Planning , Amsterdam: North-Holland. Krusell, P. and A. A. Smith Jr (2015), “Is Piketty’s “Second Law of Capitalism” Fundamental?” Journal of Political Economy 123 , 725-748 Lane, J.S. (1972), “The Implications of Steady State Growth for Endogenous and Embodied Technological Change,” International Economic Review 13 , 342-358 Leamer, E. (1983 ), “ Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics ,” The American Economic Review 73 , 31-43. Lucas, R. E., Jr., (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics 22 , 3-42. Lucas, R. E. Jr., (2002), “Industrial Revolution: Past and Future,” in Lectures on Economic Growth , Cambridge: Harvard University Press. McKenzie, L.W., ``Optimal Economic Growth, Turnpike Theorems and Competitive Dynamics'', in K.J. Arrow and M.D. Intriligator (eds.) Handbook of Mathematical Economics , vol III, North Holland Publ. C., Amsterdam--New York, 1984. McKenzie, L.W. (1998), “The Richard Ely Lecture. Turnpikes,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 88 , (May 1998), 1–14. Neumann, J. von (1945), ‘A model of general economic equilibrium’, Review of Economic Studies , 13 , 1–9. English translation of ‘Über ein ökonomisches Gleichungssystem und eine Verallgemeinerung des Brouwerschen Fixpunktsatzes’, in Ergebnisse eines mathematischen Kolloquiums 8 (1937), 73–83. Pasinetti, L., Structural Change and Economic Growth, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1981. Phelps, E. (1985), Political Economy. An Introductory Text , W.W. Norton & Co. Romer, P. M., (2016), "The Trouble with Macroeconomics”, mimeo, Stern, NYU, April. Schumpeter, J.(1911), The Theory of Economic Development , Harvard Univ. Press 1934, (1st German edition: 1911). Solow, R. M., (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 70 , 65-94. Solow, R. M., (1957), “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function,” The Review 3 of Economics and Statistics 39 , 312-320 Solow, R.M., (1960), “Investment and Technical Progress,” in K.J. Arrow et al. (eds.) Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences , Stanford Univ. Press, Stanford, CA. Solow, R.M. et al., (1966), “Neoclassical Growth with Fixed Factor Proportions”, Review of Economic Studies 33 , 79-115. 4 .
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