Use of Plot Size in Estimation of Crops Yield Per Feddan in Traditional
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University of Sudan for Sciences and Technology College of Graduate Studies A thesis submitted for the degree of M.Sc. in Statistics بحث مقدم لنيل درجة الماجستير في اﻹحصاء In title: بعنوان: Use of Plot Size in Estimation of Crops Yield per feddan In Traditional Rain-fed Sector (Sorghum) at period 2015/2016 إستخدام حجم الحوض في تقدير إنتاجية الفدان للمحاصيل في القطاع التقليدي )الذرة( خﻻل الفترة 2016/2015 By: Supervisor: Hamza Abdalla Siror Dr. Amal Alsir Alkhidir September 2016 i اﻵية بسم هللا الرحمن الرحيم قال تعالى: أفرأ يتم ما تحرثون )63( أأنتم تزرعونه أم نحن الزارعون )64( سورة الواقعة أﻵيات )63 – 64(: i DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to soul of my parents who were emphasized the importance of education and worked very hard and exert efforts to educate me and my brothers and sisters throughout their life. The dedication extends to my wife and children. I dedicate this Master’s dissertation to all who have been and still fighting to promote and improve their knowledge and skills of statistics. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I express my gratitude to Dr. Amal Alsir Alkhidir for granting me the opportunity to complete this work under her guidance. Thank you for coaching inputs and feedback. Next, I could never thank enough to my family for their constant and unconditional support, understanding and faith. I know you will always be there for me. Special thanks to Mr. Hassan Elsheikh for his friendliness, kindness, open mindset and energetic attitude, I have learned many things from him. To my friends Azhari, Bushra, Gamal, Amna and Elham – thank you for your support, help and encouragement in pursuing my dreams! Finally, I want to thank the Sudan University of Science and Technology for organizing this programme, especially all administrative and academic staff of college of science, department of statistics that were responsible for realization of the statistic programme. Your efforts in day- to-day activities, excellence and passion for science have been highly appreciated and truly inspiring. However, apart from all the valuable academic knowledge and practical skill I have gained during my studies, I feel that the most valuable thing I am taking with me is to dare to think. ii ABSTRACT The rain-fed traditional represent a big share of area cultivated in the Sudan and characterized by a very complicated situation leads to numbers of problems in agricultural statistics, in respect to area enumeration and yield estimation and poses serious threats to quality and reliability of area and production estimates. Due to these problems it is essential to pay more attention to this important sector. The study was carried out to study the effect of plot sizes on the three different types of soils (sandy, loam and clay soils) on the estimation of sorghum yield in the traditional rain-fed sector. The estimation was obtained by using crop-cutting technique and multi-stage stratified sampling. The primary data obtained from different plot sizes namely 5x5m, 6x7m and 10x10m on each type of soil. Equal sample size allocation was used. The village was considered as primary sampling unit and the field as secondary sampling unit and the plot as third sampling unit. Sample size of twenty for each plot size and on each soil type was used, with the following hypothesis; 1-There is a direct relationship between plant density and plot size. 2-The margin of error reflects the required sample size and there is a direct correlation between the level of accuracy required and the cost of conducting survey. 3-Increase of plot size has no effect on either the precision or the accuracy. Analysis of variance table was used to analyze the effect of sample sizes on the estimation of sorghum yield in traditional rain-fed sector. The coefficient of variation was used to identify the best stable crop yield according to the plot size. The multiple comparison method was used to detect the significant differences between means in each soil type according to the plot size by using statistical package SPSS. The results shows and according to the conclusions of the study the plot size had not shown any effect on the yield in the different types of soils, but there was slight effect of plots size in case of plants density estimation. There seem other factors affecting the level of yields. These iii factors should be planting spaces, seed rate, adequate re-sowing, thinning and optimum sowing dates. Two recommendations were recommended: 1- If the main objective of the survey is to estimate the crop yield, then the small size plots are better and recommended to use in all types of soils to save time and to save resources. 2- If the objective of the survey is to estimate the plant density then the medium plots size are better in estimation and recommended to be used. iv المستخلص يمثل القطاع التقليدىالجزء اﻻكبر من المساحة المزروعة في السودان ويتصف بوضعه المعقد مما نجمت عنهمشاكل كبيرة فى اﻻحصاءات الزراعية, تتمثل فىتحديد المساحات المزروعة واﻻنتاجية الشئ الذى اثر كثيرا علي جودة ومصداقية المعلومة مما يجعل من اﻻهمية بمكان اﻻلتفات الي هذا القطاع الهام. هدفت الدراسة الي دراسة اثر حجم اﻻحواض في ثﻻثة انواع من الترب الزراعية علي تقدير انتاجية الذرة فى القطاع المطري التقليدى. توصلنا الي التقدير باستخدام طريقة قطع المحصول واستخدام العينة الطبقية متعددة المراحل. البيانات اﻻولية حصلنا عليها باستخدام ثﻻثة احواض مختلفة المساحة وهي تحديدا 5*5 متر, 6*7 متر و10*10 متر في كل نوع من انواع الترب الزراعية الثﻻث. اعتبرت القرية كوحدة احصائية اولية والمزرعة كوحدة احصائة ثانية واﻻحواض كوحدة احصائية ثالثة. عشرون عينة لكل حجم حوض فى كل نوع من انواع الترب الزراعية وهي التربة الرملية والتربة الطينية الخفيفة والتربة الطينية الثقيلة قد تم استخدامها. وكانت فرضيات البحث كاﻻتى: 1- هنالك عﻻقة مباشرة بين الكثافة النباتية وحجم الحوض. 2- هامش الخطا يعكس حجم العينة المطلوب وهنالك عﻻقة بين مستوى الدقة المطلوب وتكلفةتنفيذ المسح. 3- حجم الحوض لبس له اثر علي الدقة والجودة تم استخدام جدول تحليل التباين لتحليل اثر حجم الحوض علي تقدير اﻻنتاجية فى القطاع التقليدى. معامل اﻻختﻻف تم استخدامه لمعرفة اﻻستقرار فى تقدير اﻻنتاجية حسب مساحة الحوض. ايضا تم استخدام طريقة المقارنات المتعددة لتحديد الفروقات المعنوية بين المتوسطات فى كل نوع من انواع الترب الزراعية حسب حجم الحوض وذلك باستخدام البرنامج اﻻحصائى SPSS. اظهرت نتائج الدراسة انه ﻻ اثر لحجم الحوضعلي تقدير اﻻنتاجية في الترب الثﻻث. لكن هنالك اثر طفيف لحجم الحوض في حالة تقدير الكثافة النباتية. وقد يعود ذلك ﻻبعاد الزراعة وكميات التقاوى للفدان, الرقاعة, الشلخ وتاريخ الزراعة المناسب. خرج البحث بتوصيتين: 1- لتقدير اﻻنتاجية حجم الحوض الصغير هو اﻻفضل وعلى جميع انواع الترب الزراعية لتوفير الزمن والموارد. 2- لتقدير الكثافة النباتية اﻻفضل استخدام حجم الحوض المتوسط. v Table of contents Item Page Aya of The Quran ⁱ Dedication ⁱⁱ Acknowledgements ⁱⁱⁱ Abstract іv Table of contents vіі List of tables іx CHAPTER ONE - Introduction 1 1-1 Preface 2 2-1 Research Problem 2 3-1 Research Importance 3 4-1 Objective of the Research 3 5-1 Hypothesis of the Research 3 6-1 The Research, Methodology 4 7-1The Research Area of the Study 4 8-1 Previous Studies 4 9-1 Research Structure 5 CHAPTER TWO - Rain-Fed Traditional Sector 6 1-2 Preface 7 2-2 Traditional Rain-Fed Agriculture 7 3-2 Traditional Sector 10 4-2 Contribution of the Sector to the Export Value 10 5-2 Traditional Rain-fed Agriculture Subsistence Oriented 11 6-2 Performance of the Traditional Rain-fed Sector 11 7-2 Historical Background of Agricultural Statistics in Sudan 12 8-2 Method of Collection Agricultural Data in the Irrigated Sector 14 9-2 Rain-fed Mechanized Sector 15 CHAPTER THREE – Literature review 17 1-3 The notion of survey sampling 18 2-3 Survey sampling 18 3-3 Observational access to the population 21 4-3 Important and desirable properties of a frame 24 5-3 Simple random sampling 26 6-3 Stratified sampling 28 7-3 Cluster Sampling 34 8-3 Systematic Sampling 37 9-3 Estimating the Variance 38 10-3 Non-sampling Error 38 11-3 Agricultural Surveys 39 12-3 Measurement of Estimator Quality 39 13-3 Standard Deviations 40 14-3 Standard Errors 40 15-3 Coefficient of Variation 40 16-3 The Estimation of the Production 40 vi 17-3 Some Sampling Surveys in Sudan 43 18-3 Rain-fed Mechanized Sector 45 19-3 Some Surveys in Egypt and India 45 20-3 Research Type 46 21-3 Assessment Methodology 48 22-3 Multiple Comparison of the Means Procedure 51 CHAPTER FOUR 54 1-4 The Analysis and Results Discussion 55 CHAPTER FIVE 63 1-5 Conclusion 64 2-5 Recommendation 65 References 66 Annexes vii List of Tables No. ITEM Page Table 1-2 Area harvested Production & Average Yield of Sorghum and Sesame 6 (90/91 – 2014/2015) Table 1-3 Two Stage Estimation 45 Table 2-3 Two Stage Estimation Analysis of Variance 46 Table 3-3 The Estimation of the Overall Yield 47 Table 4-3 Three Stage Estimation Analysis of Variance 48 Table 1-4 Mean statistics for number of heads per feddan under different plot 51 sizes (Fershaya Area) Table 2-4 Analysis of Variance (Fershaya Area) 51 Table 3-4 Sub-set Homogeneous (Fershaya Area) 52 Table 4-4 Mean statistics for number of heads per feddan under different plot 52 sizes (Debaibat Area) Table 5-4 Analysis of Variance (Debaibat Area) 52 Table 6-4 Sub-set Homogeneous (Debaibat Area)) 53 Table 7-4 Mean statistics for number of heads per feddan under different plot 53 sizes (Dalami Area) Table 8-4 Analysis of Variance (Dalami Area) 53 Table 9-4 Sub-set Homogeneous (Dalami Area) 54 Table 10-4 Mean statistics for average yield per feddan under different plot sizes 54 (Fershaya Area) Table 11-4 Analysis of Variance (Fershaya Area) 54 Table 12-4 Sub-set Homogeneous (Fershaya Area) 55 Table 13-4 Mean statistics for average yield per feddan