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China / Taiwan Information Technology 6 December 2017 Greater China Smartphones The more the merrier – multi-cameras are the next mega trend in smartphones (Part 3) We forecast 3D sensing smartphone shipments of 200-618m for 2018-20E (34m in 2017E), driving market upside for the supply chain Kylie Huang Dual-cam adoption set to rise further in 2018-20E on a widening of (886) 2 8758 6248 adoption from high-end to mid-range models [email protected] Steven Yang Sunny, AAC and Largan are our top picks under the theme; recent (886) 2 8758 6245 pullbacks due to the coming quiet season in 1Q18 present good [email protected] buying opportunities 2. What's new: In Part 3 of our series of reports, we underline our upbeat view Key stock calls on the smartphone camera supply chain with the rise of the multi-cam trend, New Prev. driven by the boom in dual-cam adoption and emergence of 3D sensing in AAC Technologies (2018 HK) smartphones (see The more the merrier: multi-cameras are the next mega Rating Buy Buy Target 200.00 195.00 trend in smartphones [Part 2]). We introduce our forecasts for 3D-sensing Upside p 44% penetration and raise our 2017-18 dual-cam adoption forecasts based on Largan Precision (3008 TT) strong interest from brands. Sunny (2382 HK, HKD109.0, Buy [1]) and Rating Buy Buy Largan (3008 TT, TWD4,265, Buy [1]) remain our top picks, and we add AAC Target 5,800 6,680 (2018 HK, HKD138.9, Buy [1]) to our top picks list given its recent Upside p 36% breakthrough in optics. Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK) Rating Buy Buy Target 165.00 160.00 What's the impact: 3D sensing – the next key driver. We remain positive on Upside p 51.4% the 3D sensing trend and expect 3D adoption in the iPhone X to trigger 3D Source: Daiwa forecasts sensing being adopted more widely in smartphones. Our research suggests top-tier brands like Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi and Samsung have a strong interest in 3D, and aim to release 3D sensing models in 2H18. Adoption in Android smartphones will likely only accelerate in 2019 after algorithm and design issues have been resolved, while we expect all the new iPhones in 2H18 to have this feature. In total, we forecast shipments of 3D-sensing- adopted smartphones to rise to 200/425/618m in 2018/19/20E, respectively, from 34m in 2017E and zero in 2016, providing an additional addressable market of USD2.1bn for lens vendors and USD13.5bn for module vendors, implying 65-70% upside to their 2016 market sizes Dual-cam adoption to accelerate in 2018-20E. We see dual-cams as a key feature to attract consumers and expect dual-cam adoption to rise further in 2018-20E on the back of broader adoption from high-end to mid-ranged models. In total, we forecast dual-cam-adopted smartphone shipments of 502/690/856m in 2018/19/20E, from 268m in 2017E and 73m in 2016 (vs. 255m in 2017E and 420m in 2018E previously), with the adoption rate rising to 31-48% in 2018-20E. What we recommend: We reiterate our Positive sector view and see the multi- cam trend benefiting the camera component supply chain, namely Largan, the leader in lens sets, Sunny, the major camera module and lens set provider, and AAC, for which we see lenses as a new driver. We view recent share-price pullbacks due to the coming quiet season in 1Q18, China inventory adjustments and muted iPhone sentiment (see iPhone X: production on track for a strong 4Q17 but could see a seasonal decline in 1Q18) as offering further buying opportunities. The key risk: weaker dual-cam/3D sensing adoption. How we differ: We are more upbeat than the market on the benefits of spec upgrades for our preferred names. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 38 Greater China Smartphones: 6 December 2017 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg AAC Technologies 2018 HK 138.90 Buy Buy 200.00 195.00 2.6% 4.298 4.327 (0.7%) 6.116 5.966 2.5% Largan Precision 3008 TT 4,265 Buy Buy 5,800 6,680 (13.2%) 195.659 212.437 (7.9%) 287.385 331.595 (13.3%) Sunny Optical Technology 2382 HK 109.00 Buy Buy 165.00 160.00 3.1% 2.553 2.568 (0.6%) 3.803 3.709 2.5% Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Global dual-cam adoption in smartphones Global 3D sensing adoption in smartphones (m units) (m units) 2,000 100% 2,000 100% 90% 90% 80% 1,500 80% 70% 1,500 70% 60% 60% 1,000 50% 40% 1,000 50% 30% 40% 500 30% 20% 500 10% 20% 0 0% 10% 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 0 0% Total smartphone Total dual-cam smartphone 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Penetration rate Total smartphone Total 3D sensing smartphone Penetration rate Source: Daiwa forecasts and estimates Source: Daiwa forecasts and estimates Global smartphone camera module market Global smartphone lens sets market (USDbn) (USDbn) 50 10 CAGR: 21.8% CAGR: 26.4% 40 8 6 30 4 20 2 10 0 0 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Single-cam (front+rear) Dual-cam Single-cam (front+rear) Dual-cam 3D Sensing 3D Sensing (Tx lens sets) 3D Sensing (Rx lens sets) Source: Daiwa forecasts and estimates Source: Daiwa forecasts and estimates *Note:Dual-cam markets as an incremental value to single-cam market Smartphone 3D sensing camera module supply chain Transmitter module (Tx) Laser diode Lens DOE IQE (IQE LN) WLO TSMC (2330 TT) VPEC (2455 TT) AMS (AMS SW) Xintec (3374 TT) Lumentum (LITE) Himax (HIMX US) VisEra (Private) Camera Modules Finisar (FNSR) AAC (2018 HK) Himax (HIMX US) AMS (AMS SW) Plastic/hybrid Holoeye (Private) Lite-On (2301 TT) II-VI (IIVI US) Largan (3008 TT) RPC (Private) Sunny Optical (2382 HK) WinSemi (3105 TT) Sunny (2382 HK) DCA (Private) SEMCO (009150 KS) Genius (3406 TT) LG Innotek (011070 KS) AAC (2018 HK) Primax (4915 TT) Cowell (1415 HK) O-Film (002456 CH) Truly (732 HK) Receiver module (Rx) Q-tech (1478 HK) Sharp (6753 JP) CMOS sensor Lens BP filter Hon Hai (2317 TT) STM (STM US) Largan (3008 TT) Viavi (VIAV US) Sony (6758 JP) Kantatsu (Private) Samsung(005930KS) Sunny Optical (2832 HK) OminiVision (Private) Genius (3406 TT) Aptina (Private) Glorytek (3428 TT) Infineon (IFX AG) Sekonix (005345 KS) Kolen (078650 KS) Diostech (085660 KS) SEMCO (009150 KS) Source: Companies, Daiwa 2 Greater China Smartphones: 6 December 2017 Table of contents Multi-cameras: the next mega trend for smartphones (Part 3) ............................. 4 Rise of multi-cams suggests upside for the smartphone camera supply chain ...................4 All eyes on 3D sensing – the next key drivers in multi-cams ..............................................5 Dual-cam adoption to rise further in 2018-20E ...................................................................8 Spec upgrades in dual-cams............................................................................................ 10 Positive on camera component supply chain – muted outlook for 1Q18 another opportunity to accumulate .............................................................................................. 13 Risks to our view .............................................................................................................. 14 Appendix 1 ...............................................................................................................15 Major technologies in 3D sensing .................................................................................... 15 Appendix 2 ...............................................................................................................16 Overview of wafer level optics .......................................................................................... 16 Appendix 3 ...............................................................................................................18 The dilemma: image quality vs. form factor ...................................................................... 18 Dual-cams as a solution to the dilemma .......................................................................... 18 Improved imaging quality ................................................................................................. 19 Company Section AAC Technologies ........................................................................................................... 21 Largan Precision .............................................................................................................. 26 Sunny Optical Technology ............................................................................................... 31 3 Greater China Smartphones: 6 December 2017 Multi-cameras: the next mega trend for smartphones (Part 3) Rise of multi-cams suggests upside for the smartphone camera supply chain In addition to dual-cams, As we discussed in The more the merrier: multi-cameras are the next mega trend in we see adoption of 3D smartphones (Part 2), published on 6 March, we remain upbeat on the smartphone camera sensing as a key driver supply chain given the sound favourable industry trend of the rise of multi-cams. To recap: for the smartphone 1) we expect dual-cam adoption to accelerate in 2017-18E after it began to kick in from camera component 2016, and 2) we see dual-cams as just the beginning of the multi-cam era; we expect supply chain multi-cams/trio-cams to arrive soon, driven by new features such as the adoption of 3D sensing for augmented reality (AR)/biometric identification (ID). As such, we forecast the Indeed, for dual-cams, given the strong demand from consumers looking for
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