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The Future Challenges of Sustainable Energy

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The Future Challenges of Sustainable Energy Stiesdal The Future Challenges of Sustainable Energy Henrik Stiesdal, 10.11.17 © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 1 Stiesdal Why work in sustainable energy? © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 2 Stiesdal The key driver is mitigation of climate change 1.5 1.0 +0.017 deg.C per year 0.5 (deg.C.) 0.0 -0.5 Global Temperature Anomaly Global Temperature -1.0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Monthly 5-year average Source: NCDC, NOAA © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 3 Stiesdal Climate change is fundamentally all about CO2 - from us! Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 4 Stiesdal Climate change is fundamentally all about CO2 - from us! Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 5 Stiesdal Predicted temperature rise in 50 years Source: NCDC, NOAA © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 6 Stiesdal On a personal level we may learn to adapt to some of the effects … © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 7 Stiesdal … Other effects will no be so easy to adapt to Stiesdal residence © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 8 Stiesdal One of the results will be hundreds of millions of climate refugees © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 9 Stiesdal We know what the problem is ... © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 10 Stiesdal ... And we know the solutions! Source: Siemens, First Solar © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 11 Stiesdal The global scene - development in new power generation capacity 300 150 53.5% of new invstments 250 125 200 100 Renewables Fossil 150 75 Large hydro Nuclear 100 50 Crude oil New capacity, ($Bn) capacity, New 50 25 Crude oil price ($/Barrel) 0 0 Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016 Source: UNEP, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 12 Stiesdal The global scene - development in new power generation capacity 300 150 53.5% of new invstments 250 125 200 100 Renewables Fossil 150 75 Large hydro Nuclear 100 50 Crude oil New capacity, ($Bn) capacity, New 50 25 Crude oil price ($/Barrel) 0 0 Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016 Source: UNEP, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 13 Stiesdal Distribution of new renewables capacity, 2015, $Bn Solar 161 Wind 110 Biomass 6 Small hydro 4 Biofuels 3 Geothermal 2 0 50 100 150 200 Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 14 Stiesdal The future looks better than before – Source: IEA © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 15 Stiesdal But we are far from done yet! Source: IEA © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 16 Stiesdal The global wind market development 70,000 700,000 $110 Bn. 60,000 600,000 50,000 500,000 40,000 400,000 30,000 300,000 20,000 200,000 Annual installations (MW) Annual installations 10,000 100,000 Cumulated installations (MW) installations Cumulated 0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Annual Cumulated Source: GWEC, IEA © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 17 Stiesdal Making renewables happen A preferred source of electricity must be able to deliver the desired electric energy - ?• to the necessary extent, ?• without destroying the climate, ?• without excessive public opposition, ?• at an affordable cost, and ?• when it is needed Let us check it out for wind power © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 18 Stiesdal To the necessary extent ... - Det var osse meget sjovere, dengang vi selv producerede varmen. Politiken, 25.08.89 Miljøminister Lone Dybkjær oplyser, at de vandsenge, der findes rundt om i Danmarks sovekamre, bruger lige så meget strøm, som alle danske vindmøller fremstiller © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 19 Stiesdal To the necessary extent ... Wind power share in Denmark 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Wind production relative to load to relative Wind production 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 20 Stiesdal Area use for offshore wind at 100% of load (pre-Brexit!) Area use. Denmark • DK load: 35 Bn. kWh/year • Energy: 30 kWh/m2/year • Area required: 1115 km2 • Corresponds to one offshore wind farm measuring 35 km x 35 km Area use, EU • EU load: 2.800 Bn. kWh/year • Energy: 30 kWh/m2/year • Area required: 90.000 km2 • Corresponds to nine offshore wind farms, each measuring 100 km x 100 km Still plenty of sea available for shipping and fishing! © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 21 Stiesdal Making renewables happen A preferred source of electricity must be able to deliver the desired electric energy - ?• to the necessary extent, ?• without destroying the climate, ?• without excessive public opposition, ?• at an affordable cost, and ?• when it is needed © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 22 Stiesdal Without destroying the climate … 1000 820 800 600 490 400 Lifecycle CO2, g/kWh CO2, Lifecycle 200 48 24 12 12 11 0 Coal Gas (CC) PV Large Wind off Nuclear Wind on (utility) hydro Source: Energinet.dk © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 23 Stiesdal Making renewables happen A preferred source of electricity must be able to deliver the desired electric energy - ?• to the necessary extent, ?• without destroying the climate, ?• without excessive public opposition, ?• at an affordable cost, and ?• when it is needed © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 24 Stiesdal Without creating unnecessary public opposition ... © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 25 Stiesdal How the opponent sees the wind farm! © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 26 Stiesdal A typical modern offshore wind farm as seen from the beach © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 27 Stiesdal Making renewables happen A preferred source of electricity must be able to deliver the desired electric energy - ?• to the necessary extent, ?• without destroying the climate, ?• without excessive public opposition, ?• at an affordable cost, and ?• when it is needed © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 28 Stiesdal Disruptive 2016 cost reductions in bottom-fixed offshore wind DONG Borssele I-II Vattenfall near-costal Shell Borssele III-IV ENEL, Morocco Vattenfall Kriegers DONG + EnBW, DE Source: Berkeley National Lab © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 29 Stiesdal The message is sinking in! © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 30 Stiesdal Making renewables happen A preferred source of electricity must be able to deliver the desired electric energy - ?• to the necessary extent, ?• without destroying the climate, ?• without excessive public opposition, ?• at an affordable cost, and ?• when it is needed © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 31 Stiesdal A classical picture of production and load Load Spot Central Decentral Wind Source: EMD © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 32 Stiesdal Making renewables happen A preferred source of electricity must be able to deliver the desired electric energy - ?• to the necessary extent, ?• without destroying the climate, ?• without excessive public opposition, ?• at an affordable cost, and ÷• when it is needed • We need to expand low-cost offshore wind power • We need to develop energy storage, and • We need to be able to finance this effort © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 33 Stiesdal Willy ”Slick” Sutton Source: FBI © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 34 Stiesdal Sutton’s Law When asked why he robbed banks, Sutton said: “Because that is where the money is!” Reality – from Sutton’s memoir “I never said it. The credit belongs to some enterprising reporter… Why did I rob banks? Because I enjoyed it. I loved it. I was more alive when I was inside a bank, robbing it, than at any other time in my life.” Source: Sutton W, Linn E: Where the Money Was: The Memoirs of a Bank Robber. Viking Press (1976) © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 35 Stiesdal Sutton’s Law The incarnation of Focus “Because that is where the money is!” So – where is the money? • Research • Invention • Innovation • Industrialization © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 36 Stiesdal The most spectacular piece of innovation in this century 1st iPod Number of defendable patents: Released October 2001 Zero 1st iPhone Released January 2007 The iPod and iTunes dramatically changed the music business, and the way we interact with music players The Apple phone was widely discussed prior to release – yet the “full package” was truly new 1st iPad Released April 2010 The iPad introduced an entirely new PC product line; reshaping centuries-old traditions of paper-based reading Source: Apple © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 37 Stiesdal The effects of the iPhone Source: Vatican © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 38 Stiesdal Innovation in wind power - growth in turbine size Source: Siemens © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 39 Stiesdal The first Bonus turbine – 30 kW, Tambohuse, 1981 Status ▪ Grid connected October 1981 ▪ Still operating in its 35rd year ▪ Annual energy 18,500 kWh ▪ Total Energy 630,000 kWh Source: Siemens © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 40 Stiesdal The most recent Siemens turbine, 6 MW, Westermost Rough Status ▪ Commissioned 2015 ▪ Calculated lifetime 24 years ▪ Annual Energy 25.000.000 kWh ▪ Will in 10 days produce same energy as the first turbine spent 35 years producing Source: Siemens © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 41 Stiesdal The Siemens 8 MW rotor Source: Siemens © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 42 Stiesdal The 75 m blade for the Siemens 8 MW Picture credit: Siemens © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 43 Stiesdal The effect of the larger rotors on DK wind productivity 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Capacity Factor 10% 5% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Naturlig Energu © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved
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