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Sustainable New Deal

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Sustainable New Deal A SUSTAINABLE NEW DEAL A stimulus package for economic, social and ecological recovery Foreword There are always defining moments in the history It’s against that backdrop that the Sustainable of any dominant model of progress. It’s hard to Development Commission has been developing its imagine how 2009 will not be seen, in retrospect, advice to Treasury and to Number 10 regarding the to be one of those moments. The combination of Budget on April 22nd. The 2008 Pre-Budget Report the severest economic recession since the 1930s, indicated some significant shifts in the direction of increasingly stark warnings from the scientific what we have called a ‘Sustainable New Deal’, but community about the risk of accelerating climate at nothing like the scale that is now required given change, worsening environmental problems such dire threats both to the global economy and and resource shortages and the grave threat of to the global environment. widespread social disruption, leaves no room at all for business-as-usual mindsets or responses. In short, this is a moment that demands unprecedented leadership, robust policy, and On a rather more modest scale, 2009 is also a decisive action. This report sets out the framework defining moment for the current government. for such a response, at a scale commensurate With little more than a year to run in its current with the challenge, and provides a clear agenda term, it faces unprecedented challenges to its for action. The economic crisis of 2009 has the own credentials. But it is also presented with a potential to seed the economic opportunities of unique opportunity to create lasting change and tomorrow. But it demands courage and vision effect a vital transition to a sustainable low carbon today. That is our challenge to Government. economy. Tim Jackson, Economics Commissioner and Jonathon Porritt, Chairman Executive summary On April 22nd, in the 2009 Budget, the UK Government has an unprecedented opportunity to bring forward a green recovery package that will transform the shape of the UK economy. This will make good, for the first time, on the extraordinary ambition levels to which this Government has committed itself over the last few years. Ministerial speeches at the Low Carbon Industrial Summit on March 9th could not have been clearer on that score. “ This transition to low-carbon is an environmental and economic imperative. It is also inevitable. There is no high-carbon future. Low-carbon is not a sector of an economy – it is an economy.” Lord Mandelson, BERR “ The science says we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80% to avoid the most catastrophic and irreversible effects of climate change. We’ll have 20% of current emissions, with an economy that we want to be three times bigger. It’s not just a change, it’s a transformation.” Ed Miliband, DECC “ We can now build a new green economy. Rise to one of the greatest peace time challenges of all, that will not only help our country prosper, but will build a better, more secure and more sustainable world.” Prime Minister Gordon Brown 2 A Sustainable New Deal Sustainable Development Commission The Sustainable Development Commission has been advising Government on both the scale and the scope of a proposed recovery package, and these are our principal conclusions and recommendations: 1 The Government should be prepared to commit 4 The priority areas making up that package up to £30 billion a year for the next three years comprise: on its green recovery package. This would • Upgrading existing housing stock represent around 50% of a total recovery • Scaling up renewable energy supply package amounting to 4% of the UK’s annual • Redesigning the national grid GDP. • Promoting sustainable mobility • Low-carbon investments in the public sector 2 We need to do this now to narrow the gap • Skills for a low-carbon, sustainable economy. between ourselves and other OECD competitors. The total current commitment on green 5 Work in all these areas can start immediately, measures here in the UK amounts to 0.1% of but over the next few years there will still need annual GDP spread over three years. South to be a major investment (by Government Korea’s green recovery package is 30 times and employers) in skills for a sustainable, larger, at 3% of GDP over the same time frame. low-carbon economy. As both the TUC and employers have pointed out, it is foolish to go 3 Without a commitment on this scale, there is on willing the ends without willing the means. every likelihood that the Government’s low- carbon, sustainable measures will be totally 6 More work will be needed on this, but overwhelmed by ‘mainstream’ (i.e. high-carbon provisional calculations suggest that a green and unsustainable) measures. Together with recovery package of up to £30 billion a year for commitments made in the 2007 Comprehensive three years could create at least 800,000 jobs. Spending Review, an investment strategy of More than 50% of the investments incurred the kind proposed would put the Government under a programme of this kind would on track to achieving the extremely ambitious generate significant financial returns within a targets in the Climate Change Act. couple of years. We are obviously aware of the fact that a substantial recovery package for the UK economy, ‘Sustainable New Deal’ of this scale and scope for the reasons spelled out many times by has significant implications for the Public Sector Government Ministers; at least 50% of that Borrowing Requirement. We have therefore argued package needs to be focused on low-carbon and that although there is now no alternative other sustainable investments; this is the only way than to fund such a package primarily through both to accelerate the journey out of the current deficit funding in the first instance, it is crucial recession, which will be painful enough anyway, that the Government sets in place as speedily and to avoid pitching us straight back into wholly as possible a combination of alternative funding unsustainable, consumption-driven, high-carbon mechanisms including green taxation, green bonds growth. There is indeed no ‘high-carbon future’. and other ‘invest to save’ mechanisms. And the Budget on April 22nd provides the obvious In conclusion, the overall thrust of this document opportunity to stake out that critical strategic is clear: it is crucial for the UK to commit to a territory. Sustainable Development Commission A Sustainable New Deal 3 “ Underlying all these measures is a common principle: the need to lay down now the infrastructure and the hardware to support a low carbon recovery and the green economy of the future.” Gordon Brown, Davos, 30th January 2009 1 Context We are living through very difficult times. Global • How much has been committed to green economic turbulence and the prospect of deep recovery so far? recession present an enormous challenge to • What are the appropriate targets for green government, to businesses and to households. But stimulus investment? times of crisis are also times of opportunity, as • How much should be spent on a green the Prime Minister’s Davos speech (cited above) recovery package? affirms.1 An unprecedented opportunity now exists • Can this level of spending be justified in to transform our economy and our society for the the UK? better. • What are the likely returns in terms of jobs and other benefits? A strong international consensus is emerging in support of a very simple idea.2 Economic recovery The report summarises existing commitments to demands investment. Targetting that investment green recovery across the world and compares carefully towards energy security, low-carbon these to the green stimulus commitments in infrastructures and ecological protection offers the UK. So far, it is clear that the UK lags some multiple benefits. These benefits include: considerable way behind other countries in committing funds to green economic recovery. • freeing up resources for household spending and productive investment by reducing The paper finds support for a strong emerging energy and material costs consensus on an appropriate target for such • reducing our reliance on imports and our investments. As the Prime Minister has remarked, exposure to the fragile geo-politics of energy ‘the contours of a resilient low-carbon recovery supply are becoming clear’. This ‘green sweet spot’ for • providing a much-needed boost to investment includes retrofitting buildings (domestic employment in the expanding ‘environmental and non-domestic) for energy efficiency, additional industries’ sector 3 support for renewable energy technologies, • making progress towards the demanding encouraging sustainable mobility, modernising carbon reduction targets established by the the electricity grid, and investing in eco-system UK Climate Change Act protection and maintenance. • protecting valuable ecological assets and improving the quality of our living When it comes to the appropriate level of environment for generations to come. investment, the paper finds support for the view that up to 4% of annual GDP should be committed This paper sets out the SDC’s position on the immediately to economic recovery. Estimates of scope and scale of a green stimulus – an economic the appropriate green content of this vary. Lord recovery package aimed at investment in the Stern has suggested a minimum of 20%. Green technologies and infrastructures needed for the contributions across the world range from nothing transition to a sustainable, low-carbon society. The at all to 80% of overall
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