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Interim Report IR-03-009 the Radioactive Legacy of the Russian

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Interim Report IR-03-009 the Radioactive Legacy of the Russian International Institute for Tel: +43 2236 807 342 Applied Systems Analysis Fax: +43 2236 71313 Schlossplatz 1 E-mail: [email protected] A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Web: www.iiasa.ac.at Interim Report IR-03-009 The Radioactive Legacy of the Russian Pacific Fleet Operations and its Potential Impact on Neighboring Countries Edited by: K. L. Compton ([email protected]) V. M. Novikov ([email protected]) F. L. Parker ([email protected]) Yu. V. Sivintsev ([email protected]) Contributing Authors: T. Banba K. L. Compton V. A. Danilyan V. I. Kobzev S. A. Lavkovsky N. I. Lysenko A. Mahura A. A. Maksimov V. Mordashov V. M. Novikov F. L. Parker A. Pechkurov B. G. Pologich V. Romanova Yu. V. Sivintsev M. Takano V. L. Visotsky Approved by Frank L. Parker ([email protected]) Project Leader, Radiation Safety of the Biosphere Project June 2003 Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Contents List of Figures.................................................................................................................. iv List of Tables................................................................................................................... vi 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 2 Background: Facilities and Source Terms............................................................... 4 2.1 Primorye Territory............................................................................................ 4 2.1.1 Pavlovsk Bay Naval Base......................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Bolshoi Kamen and the Far Eastern Plant Zvezda ................................. 15 2.1.3 Chazhma Bay Ship Repair Facility ........................................................ 21 2.1.4 Razboinik Bay Naval Station ................................................................. 21 2.1.5 Cape Sysoeva Naval Waste Facility....................................................... 22 2.2 Kamchatka Oblast...........................................................................................24 2.2.1 Seldevaya Bay Naval Shipyard .............................................................. 26 2.2.2 Kamchatka Refuelling and Waste Management Facility ....................... 26 2.2.3 Rybachy Naval Base............................................................................... 29 2.3 Spent Fuel Storage Characteristics................................................................. 30 2.3.1 Shore Based Storage in Transport Casks................................................ 30 2.3.2 Project 326 Class Floating Workshops................................................... 31 2.3.3 Project 326M Class Floating Workshops ............................................... 32 2.3.4 Project 2020 (“Malina”) Class Floating Workshops .............................. 32 2.4 Conclusions .................................................................................................... 33 3 Transboundary Atmospheric Transport.................................................................. 35 3.1 Climactic Settings........................................................................................... 35 3.2 Probability of Transport: Trajectory Analyses ............................................... 39 3.2.1 Methodology........................................................................................... 40 3.2.2 Results And Discussion.......................................................................... 43 3.2.3 Conclusions ............................................................................................ 54 3.3 Case Study: Atmospheric Transport and Deposition to Japan from an Accident in Southern Primorye Territory................................................................... 55 ii 3.3.1 Brief Description of WSPEEDI.............................................................. 55 3.3.2 Wind Field Analysis for January 1997................................................... 56 3.3.3 Analysis of the Results ........................................................................... 57 3.3.4 Parametric Study .................................................................................... 62 3.3.5 Dose Assessment.................................................................................... 63 3.3.6 Conclusions and Discussions ................................................................. 65 4 Consequence Assessment....................................................................................... 66 4.1 Methodology................................................................................................... 67 4.1.1 Selection of Critical Deposition Level ................................................... 68 4.1.2 Selection of Atmospheric Transfer Factor.............................................. 69 4.1.3 Critical Release and Critical Release Factor .......................................... 71 4.2 Release Fractions from Severe Accidents ...................................................... 72 4.2.1 Identification of Potential Accidents ...................................................... 74 4.3 Data................................................................................................................. 77 4.3.1 Selection of Target Region..................................................................... 77 4.3.2 Critical Deposition Level........................................................................ 77 4.3.3 Determination of Atmospheric Transfer Coefficient ............................. 78 4.4 Results ............................................................................................................ 79 5 Conclusions and Recommendations....................................................................... 84 5.1 Conclusions .................................................................................................... 84 5.1.1 Source Term........................................................................................... 84 5.1.2 Transport and Consequence Analysis .................................................... 86 5.2 Recommendations .......................................................................................... 87 6 References .............................................................................................................. 88 iii List of Figures Figure 1-1: Naval nuclear facilities in the Russian Far East (from OTA, 1995)............. 2 Figure 2-1: Primorye Territory (inset shows naval facilities) Map source: www.expedia.com .................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2-2: Pavlovsk Bay Naval Base (adapted from Danilyan et al, 2000b)................. 6 Figure 2-3: Three-compartment unit alongside a decommissioned Victor Class SSN at Pavlovsk Bay. The vessels are now stored at Razboinik Bay. (Handler, 1995. Photo credit: J. Handler)........................................................................................... 6 Figure 2-4: TNT-27 underway in the Sea of Japan in October 1993 (Handler, 1995. Photo credit: J. Handler)......................................................................................... 14 Figure 2-5: Far Eastern Plant Zvezda(adapted from Danilyan et al., 2000b)................ 15 Figure 2-6: Project 2020 (“Malina”) Class Floating Workshop (Bellona, 1996).......... 17 Figure 2-7: The Project 11510 class technological tanker "Amur", sister ship to the "Pinega" (Bellona, 1996)........................................................................................ 18 Figure 2-8: PEK-50 floating LRW storage at the Far Eastern Plant Zvezda (Handler, 1995. Photo credit: J. Handler).............................................................................. 20 Figure 2-9: Cape Sysoeva Waste Management Facility (adapted from Danilyan et al, 2000b)..................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 2-10: Map of Kamchatka Oblast (inset shows naval facilities) (map source: www.expedia.com)................................................................................................. 25 Figure 3-1a: January Sea Surface Pressure (image source: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/DataMenus.pl?stat=mon.ltm&dataset=NCEP). 36 Figure 3-1b: July Sea Surface Pressure (image source: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi- bin/DataMenus.pl?stat=mon.ltm&dataset=NCEP) ................................................ 37 Figure 3-2: Geographical impact regions ....................................................................... 41 Figure 3-3: Examples of trajectories .............................................................................. 42 Figure 3-4: Monthly variations in the average atmospheric transport time (in days) to specified regions based on the forward trajectories during 1987-1996.................. 46 Figure 3-5: Monthly variations in the number of trajectories originating at lower altitudes within the boundary layer in Kamchatka Oblast and reaching the specified regions during 1987-1996....................................................................................... 47 Figure 3-6: Monthly variations
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