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R Yoshinoya HD / 9861 COVERAGE INITIATED ON: 2018.11.14 LAST UPDATE: 2020.10.29 Shared Research Inc. has produced this report by request from the company discussed in the report. The aim is to provide an “owner’s manual” to investors. We at Shared Research Inc. make every effort to provide an accurate, objective, and neutral analysis. In order to highlight any biases, we clearly attribute our data and findings. We will always present opinions from company management as such. Our views are ours where stated. We do not try to convince or influence, only inform. We appreciate your suggestions and feedback. Write to us at [email protected] or find us on Bloomberg. Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. Yoshinoya HD / 9861 R LAST UPDATE: 2020.10.29 Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. | https://sharedresearch.jp Coverage INDEX How to read a Shared Research report: This report begins with the trends and outlook section, which discusses the company’s most recent earnings. First-time readers should start at the business section later in the report. Executive summary ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Key financial data ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Recent updates ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Highlights ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------7 Trends and outlook ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 Quarterly trends and results -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 Past initial forecasts versus results -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 Business ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 24 Business description -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 Group strategy --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 39 Group structure -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 41 Profitability snapshot ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 Strengths and weaknesses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 45 Market and value chain ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 Restaurant market trends ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 Competition ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 48 Historical performance and financial statements ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 51 Income statement ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 51 Balance sheet ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 52 Cash flow statement -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 54 Historical performance ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 55 Other information ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 68 History -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 68 News and topics ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 70 Corporate governance and top management --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 72 Dividend policy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 73 Major shareholders --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 73 Employees --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 73 By the way --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 74 Profile ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 74 02/75 Yoshinoya HD / 9861 R LAST UPDATE: 2020.10.29 Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. | https://sharedresearch.jp Coverage Executive summary Business overview Yoshinoya HD operates major restaurant chains in Japan and overseas. Its core business is Yoshinoya, which invented gyudon ◤ (beef bowl) and marked its 120th anniversary in 2019. In FY02/19, the company posted sales of JPY202.4bn (placing it fifth among 94 listed restaurant companies in sales) and operating profit of JPY104mn. The company began actively acquiring businesses from around 1995, and has grown to operate a diverse portfolio of restaurants. Main brands include Yoshinoya (gyudon), Hanamaru Udon (udon noodles), Kyotaru (take-out sushi), and Kaisen Misakiko (conveyor belt sushi). As of end February-2020, it had a total of 3,477 restaurants, 2,483 in Japan and 994 overseas. The majority of its restaurants in Japan are directly operated, whereas overseas (mainly Yoshinoya and Hanamaru restaurants) most are operated by franchisees. (The company sold off its Arcmeal business in February 2020.) At the Yoshinoya segment, which accounts for 50% of total sales and 70% of operating profit, the company operated 1,214 ◤ restaurants in Japan (as of end-February 2020), ranking the chain second among the three companies that dominate the domestic beef bowl market. Annual sales per restaurant were JPY92mn. Over the past five years, Yoshinoya restaurants in Japan have increased by 26 outlets (net) as the company continued to scrap and build its domestic suburban stores. Yoshinoya is a strong brand but the overall earnings environment for the company is challenging, because gyudon has a large sales weighting and beef prices remain high. Yoshinoya’s segment profit margin (before adjustments) driven by beef prices is generally low (5.3% in FY02/20). Consequently, companywide OPM over the past five years only averaged 1.2%, placing Yoshinoya HD near the bottom of the food-service sector, although profit levels have recovered somewhat from the post-BSE slump. Growth drivers are the Hanamaru segment (14.3% of total sales in FY02/20) and the Overseas segment (10.2%). The ◤ Hanamaru business comprised 522 restaurants around the country (mostly directly operated), making it the second-largest udon chain in Japan. Annual sales per restaurant were JPY59mn. The company targets a total of 800 locations. The Overseas segment mostly involves Yoshinoya (954 locations) and Hanamaru (40) restaurants in the US, China, and the ASEAN region (as of end-FY02/20). The company is also focusing on opening directly operated restaurants abroad and expects the number of overseas restaurants to exceed that of Yoshinoya restaurants in Japan by 2025. In addition, although details have not been disclosed, it also considers Kaisen Misakiko (Kyotaru segment) to be a growth business that is highly profitable. The strategy for Kaisen Misakiko is to continue opening restaurants in urban commercial buildings. Trends and outlook In FY02/20, the company reported consolidated sales of JPY216.2bn (+6.8% YoY), operating profit of JPY3.9bn (+3,675.0% ◤ YoY), recurring profit of JPY3.4bn (+865.3% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY713mn (versus a loss of JPY6.0bn in FY02/19). Sales expanded on the back of enhanced sales in the Hanamaru and Overseas segments as well as aggressive sales campaigns and the ongoing introduction of new products contributing to firm performance in the mainstay Yoshinoya segment. While impacted by higher food prices, including for seafood products, and an increase in personnel expenses on an uptick in hourly wages for part-time
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