NO 38 IPCS ISSUE BRIEF SEPTEMBER 2006 Akbar Bugti and after: Implications for Balochistan & Pakistan D Suba Chandran Assistant Director, IPCS Akbar Bugti’s killing in a military operation during expressed more by tribal resistance and tribal the last week of August 2006 has raised many honour.” Will Akbar Bugti’s killing become the issues, including questions about the future of rallying point for the Balochis? Is the line between Pakistan’s federal structure and suggestions of the Pakistan and Balochistan really drawn? Will downfall of Gen Musharraf, internal political Balochistan become another East Pakistan? Will disorder and external intervention leading to an there be a Baloch tribal resistance to defend their independent Balochistan. How far are these honour? assertions credible? Will Akbar Bugti become a Three factors would determine the answers for the rallying point for Baloch nationalism? Will his killing above questions. First, how strong is the Baloch trigger an armed movement against the security triumvirate – Bugti-Mengal-Marri--without Akbar forces? Is the opposition likely to unite and wage Bugti. Khair Bux Marri, Ataullah Mengal and Akbar a political struggle against Musharraf? Finally, is Bugti, the much respected and feared leaders of there an external conspiracy in what is the three major Balochi tribes formed a triumvirate happening in Balochistan? Is there a role for at the apex level, support by their respective tribes. India? Today, the Bugtis are themselves divided, thanks to I the oppressive and narrow policies pursued by Akbar Bugti. Since the killing of his son, Salal Bugti, in Baloch nationalism will Akbar Bugti become the June 1992, Akbar Bugti carried out a vendetta rallying point? against the sub clans of Kalpars and Masuris, Akbar Bugti was never in the forefront of Baloch uprooting them from Dera Bugti, not allowing them nationalism, when compared to other Baloch to return. Since January 2006, the military regime leaders like Khair Bux Marri or Ataullah Mengal. He has initiated a drive to rehabilitate the Kalpars and remained primarily a Bugti, fighting for his own Masuris, and facilitate their return to Dera Bugti, tribe, and in particular his sub tribe. Bugti was not mainly to undermine Akbar Bugti’s hold over the only respected and admired, but also hated and entire Bugti tribe. despised, even by his own sub clans. His death, Those who are being resettled openly support however, seems to have changed the position of Musharraf. The Bugti jirga, just preceding Akbar Akbar Bugti. Many believe that Musharraf has Bugti’s death, was part of this initiative. There have made him a hero. also been reports that the Bugti family itself stands Ataullah Mengal made an important divided in finding a successor to Akbar Bugti and observation: Bugti's death has drawn a line the division of his huge property. These stories may between Balochistan and Pakistan. Some be planted, but cannot be ruled out. commentators even compared it with the events Second, the movement is not cohesive, but is of 1971 and hinted that Balochistan was divided by tribal loyalties. The Bugtis till recently becoming East Pakistan. The Daily Times fought primarily for their own rights, and not for any mentioned in its editorial that “Baloch pan- Baloch cause. More jobs and increased nationalism, amongst many factors was royalties for the Sui gas to the Bugtis were their main AKBAR BUGTI AND AFTER: IMPLICATIONS FOR BALOCHISTAN & PAKISTAN PAGE 2 demands. As late as three years ago, the Bugtis death likely to intensify the armed movement were fighting the other tribes in Balochistan. Akbar against Islamabad? The following factors would Bugti could not reconcile himself to the Marris and determine the success of an armed movement, Mengals after the 1973 rebellion. The Marris and ultimately leading to an independent Balochistan. Mengals for their part did not trust Akbar Bugti First, the strength and composition of the BLA. It either. Unfortunately, Baloch nationalism has not consists primarily of Marris, though other tribes are transcended tribal rights and sentiments. There is reported to have joined the BLA. Fortunately for some involvement of the middle class, but it is not the security forces in Pakistan, the armed substantial. This may or may not change. Much movement in Balochistan is divided in terms of the would depend on the “tribal resistance” based on Bugtis and the rest. Most of the attacks carried out concepts of honour and revenge. in Dera Bugti, especially in and around Sui, were Third, there is no adequate political or material undertaken by Bugti tribesmen close to Akbar support from external powers. This would play an Bugti. Until the BLA transcends from being a Marri important role in taking the Baloch separatist militia, it is unlikely to threaten the Pakistani security movement further. Any comparison with East forces. On the other hand, there are reports Bangladesh should consider this important point. indicating that the BLA is slowing down its activities The Baloch grievances may be comparable to in the recent months, after being proactive in 2004 that of the East Pakistan, but without an active and 2005. There have been numerous surrenders external support, Baloch nationalism leading to an and no pitched battles in recent months, though independent Balochistan is unlikely. there were many explosions and attacks on gas pipelines. In the second half of 2006, there have What will Bugti's killing then bring about? It may been a series of surrenders by the Bugti and Marri lead to emergence of pan-Balochi nationalism, tribesmen. which would prove costly for Pakistan over the long run. The Balochis will not forgive Pakistan for Second, the State is going full throttle, with no killing Bugti. What he could not achieve in his life, regards for human rights. The State has used he may have achieved by his death. All this may heavy weapons and aerial bombing to fight the occur over the long run; but there is no clear BLA. There have been numerous disappearances, indicator that such a development is taking place with more than 800 Balochis being held by the now, that might lead to the creation of an security/intelligence agencies. It is unfortunate independent Balochistan. that the international community has failed to take notice of human rights violations in On the other hand, if Islamabad decides to Balochistan, giving Pakistan’s security forces a free adopt a serious political approach, this could hand. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan have a positive impact. If the military regime (HRCP) made a valiant attempt, especially after allows the two Parliamentary Committees on the December 2005 campaign to highlight these Balochistan to work and takes a back seat by atrocities. stopping military operations, a political solution is possible. Such a course would not remove the Third, there is no external material support for the sense of alienation and deprivation, but would still Baloch armed movement. An armed struggle create a dent in the demand for an independent against an established state requires funding, Balochistan. training, safe havens and an arms pipe line from a country bordering the region where the armed II conflict is taking place to succeed. Lack of Will the Baloch armed movement intensify? support for the BLA or any other Balochi armed movement would be their greatest drawback in Sardar Atalluah Mengal angrily responded “back fighting a sustained war against the Pakistani to the mountains” to a question posed where they security forces. would go after his party members resigned from the Balochistan Legislative Assembly. The The resistance has not become a full fledged Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) is waging armed movement so far. On the other hand, it has guerilla warfare in the mountains. Are the Baloch slowed down as evident from surrenders, and nationalists likely to join the BLA? Is Akbar Bugti’s fewer pitched battles and attacks on security NO 38 PAGE 3 installations. Unless there is a strong external resigned from the Parliament. involvement, supported by international concerns Second, there is a clear divide between Punjab voiced regarding the human rights situation in and Balochistan, with little or no sympathy in Balochistan, the armed movement is unlikely to Punjab over the death of Akbar Bugti. While the achieve its ultimate end – an independent strikes called by the parties and groups in Balochistan. There may be a series of attacks and Balochistan and Karachi were successful, Punjab explosions all over Balochistan, but that is remained unaffected. Even rural Sind, apart from acceptable to Islamabad. border districts where there is a sizeable Balochi III population, remained unaffected by hartals and strikes. In the Sindh Legislative Assembly a Will Bugti’s killing destabilize the Musharraf resolution on Bugti’s killing was not allowed, and regime? Will it create instability at the national the Speaker prorogued the Assembly session. level? Clearly, comments on Akbar Bugti’s killing leading It was commented that Akbar Bugti’s killing would to the weakening of the federation are mark the beginning of the end for Gen Musharraf exaggerated. The threat of the smaller provinces and that the opposition parties would come joining against Punjab and Islamabad has not together, leading to political instability at the fructified so far. It may in future, but Bugti’s killing is national level. Are these events likely to happen? not going to trigger that process. Gen Musharraf Political developments both in Balochistan and at has clearly not been shaken by Akbar Bugti’s the national level in Pakistan do not reveal that killing or the subsequent opposition. He repeatedly Gen Musharraf’s position has become unstable or emphasized that the writ of the State is supreme that the internal political situation is heading and he would fight the miscreants.