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S. HRG. 114–354 THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN HEARINGS BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FOURTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 11; FEBRUARY 12; OCTOBER 6, 2015 ( Printed for the use of the Committee on Armed Services VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:23 Sep 12, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 6011 Sfmt 6011 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21436 WILDA THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:23 Sep 12, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 6019 Sfmt 6019 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21436 WILDA S. HRG. 114–354 THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN HEARINGS BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FOURTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 11; FEBRUARY 12; OCTOBER 6, 2015 Printed for the use of the Committee on Armed Services ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.fdsys.gov/ U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 21–436 PDF WASHINGTON : 2016 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:23 Sep 12, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21436 WILDA COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES JOHN MCCAIN, Arizona, Chairman JAMES M. INHOFE, Oklahoma JACK REED, Rhode Island JEFF SESSIONS, Alabama BILL NELSON, Florida ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi CLAIRE MCCASKILL, Missouri KELLY AYOTTE, New Hampshire JOE MANCHIN III, West Virginia DEB FISCHER, Nebraska JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire TOM COTTON, Arkansas KIRSTEN E. GILLIBRAND, New York MIKE ROUNDS, South Dakota RICHARD BLUMENTHAL, Connecticut JONI ERNST, Iowa JOE DONNELLY, Indiana THOM TILLIS, North Carolina MAZIE K. HIRONO, Hawaii DAN SULLIVAN, Alaska TIM KAINE, Virginia MIKE LEE, Utah ANGUS S. KING, JR., Maine LINDSEY GRAHAM, South Carolina MARTIN HEINRICH, New Mexico TED CRUZ, Texas CHRISTIAN D. BROSE, Staff Director ELIZABETH L. KING, Minority Staff Director (II) VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:23 Sep 12, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21436 WILDA C O N T E N T S FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Page THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN ............................................................................ 1 Leiter, Hon. Michael E., Former Director, U.S. National Counterterrorism Center .................................................................................................................... 4 Olson, ADM Eric T., USN (Ret.), former Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command .............................................................................................................. 5 Crocker, Hon. Ryan C., Dean and Executive Professor, The George Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University; and Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan .......................................................... 7 Cunningham, Hon. James B., Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan ........... 9 FEBRUARY 12, 2015 THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN ............................................................................ 41 Campbell, GEN John F., USA, Commander, Resolute Support Mission, Com- mander, U.S. Forces-Afghanistan ....................................................................... 43 Questions for the Record ......................................................................................... 96 OCTOBER 6, 2015 THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN ............................................................................ 105 Campbell, GEN John F., USA, Commander, Resolute Support Mission, Com- mander, U.S. Forces-Afghanistan ....................................................................... 109 Questions for the Record ......................................................................................... 160 (III) VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:23 Sep 12, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21436 WILDA VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:23 Sep 12, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21436 WILDA THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2015 U.S. SENATE, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:33 a.m. in room SH– 216, Hart Senate Office Building, Senator John McCain (chairman) presiding. Committee members present: Senators McCain, Sessions, Ayotte, Cotton, Ernst, Tillis, Graham, Reed, Nelson, McCaskill, Manchin, Shaheen, Blumenthal, Donnelly, Hirono, Kaine, and King. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN, CHAIRMAN Chairman MCCAIN. Well, good morning. The committee meets today to receive testimony on Afghanistan and United States ef- forts to sustain the gains that have been made over the past 13 years. I want to thank each of our witnesses for appearing before us today: Ambassador James Cunningham, who was the United States Ambassador to Afghanistan until he retired from the For- eign Service last December; Ambassador Ryan Crocker, former United States Ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq and many other countries; Admiral Eric Olson, former Commander, United States Special Operations Command; and Mr. Michael Leiter, former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center. All our professionals are—all our witnesses are national security professionals who have served loyally and with the highest distinc- tion in both Democratic and Republican administrations, including the current administration. All of them also have years of experi- ence working on, and often serving in, Afghanistan. And, on a personal note, could I just say that I—I’ve had the great pleasure of knowing these four witnesses over the—many years. And I don’t know of four more honorable witnesses who have ever appeared before this committee in the years that I’ve on it. So, I consider this committee honored by your presence today on an issue of crucial importance to our country, the future, and the men and women who are serving in the military. More than 2,200 Americans have given their lives in Afghani- stan, and thousands more have been wounded. And the progress they have enabled is extraordinary. The number of Afghan children in school has increased tenfold since 2001, from less than 1 million to almost 10 million today. Forty percent of these students are girls, and 40 percent of Afghan teachers today are women. Life ex- pectancy has increased by over 20 years in less than a generation, (1) VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:23 Sep 12, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00007 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6602 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21436 WILDA 2 an achievement unheard of in modern history. Less than 10 per- cent of the Afghan population supports the Taliban, while over 70 percent express the confidence—express confidence in the Afghan military. These gains and others are significant. But, as General Mattis testified last month, the gains achieved at great cost against our enemy in Afghanistan are reversible. Afghan National Security Forces are now leading the fight and responsible for safeguarding their country. They’ve made real progress as a fighting force. The Afghan army and police maintained their professionalism during the presidential runoff last summer, upholding security and allow- ing the democratic process to play out without armed intervention. And, while the casualty rates of our Afghan partners in their fight against the Taliban are high, there is no doubt—none whatsoever— about the Afghan willingness to fight and die for their country. But, like the Iraqi Security Forces at the end of 2011, the Afghan National Security Forces are still developing some key enabling ca- pabilities, the shortfalls sounding eerily familiar: intelligence, logis- tics, airlift, close air support, special forces, and institutional devel- opment. Our commanders on the ground in Afghanistan are devel- oping plans to address these shortfalls, but they need the time, re- sources, and authorities to help our Afghan partners to develop these nascent capabilities. As I’ve said before, wars do not end just because politicians say so. Indeed, in Afghanistan we’ve seen an initial emergence of ISIS as well as the residual capabilities of al-Qaeda wrapped in their support network of the Taliban insurgency. The world walked away from Afghanistan once, and it descended into chaotic violence that became the platform for the worst ter- rorist attack in history against our homeland. The threats are real and the stakes are high. We can’t let Afghanistan become a sanc- tuary for al-Qaeda or ISIS. Failure in this manner would desta- bilize the region, especially by undermining the security of a nu- clear-armed Pakistan. Worst still, failure would condemn millions of Afghans, especially women and girls, to live again under the tyr- anny of violent radicals. We can’t turn the clock back in Iraq, but we can, and we must, apply the tragic lesson that we learned in Iraq to Afghanistan. To preserve the progress enabled by our troops and the Afghan people, President Obama must replace his plan for unconditional with- drawal from Afghanistan with a conditions-based drawdown and a clear commitment to maintain a limited residual force. If the Presi- dent repeats his mistakes from Iraq, we can expect a similar dis- aster in Afghanistan: growing instability, terrorist safe havens, horrific human rights abuses, the rapid dissolution of the hard-won gains that our men and women in uniform purchased at such high cost, and, ultimately, direct threats to the United States. I want to thank the witnesses again for testifying today,
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