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MENA Private Equity Global Research - MENA MENA Private Equity • Private equity in MENA not immune to the financial crisis. • Fundraising activities almost stagnant during 2009. • Gap between funds raised and investments increased. Massive slowdown in private equity investments and fundraising In 2009, the total number Private Equity transactions in the MENA region has decreased significantly by almost 71% to 15 entry transactions compared to 51 for the same period last year. On the fundraising front, the year saw only two funds successfully raised. Cash not invested have reached to 52% in the MENA region The growth in fundraising activities that the region has witnessed from 2005 till 2008 resulted in US$20bn raised to date out of which approximately US$11bn is still not invested representing about 52% of dry powder in the region Cumulative Fundraising and Investments 25,000 19,629 20,029 20,000 15,000 (US$ mn) 10,000 8,807 8,964 7,413 6,361 4,768 5,000 2,835 1,084 1,395 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Funds raised Investments MENA Private Equity MENA Source: GVCA and Zawya Private Equity Monitor MENA region has the highest concentration of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF’s) As per the SWF institute statistic, total size of SWF’s assets under management worldwide is currently standing at US$3.811trn compared to US$3.05trn a year ago. The MENA region SWF’s amounts to US$ 1.66trn representing 44% of the total SWF assets worldwide. Among the 10 largest SWF in the world there are three GCC countries which are UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Faisal Hasan, CFA Positive MENA private equity sector outlook Head of Research [email protected] Despite the challenging environment that faced the MENA region in general, the MENA Phone No:(965) 22951270 region will remain one of the fast growing. This will reflect positively on the future outlook of Digvijay Tanwar, CFA the private equity sector. However, the fundraising is likely to continue to go on a slow pace Senior Financial Analyst in 2010 because private equity houses will focus more on deploying the dry powder available [email protected] Phone No:(965) 22951275 in the region. Deal flow will start to increase in 2010 supported by the opportunities available in the defensive sectors. We believe that the IPO market will improve. Nonetheless, it will not Lamya Hayat Financial Analyst be the primary exit route for private equity houses. Private equity houses will be exiting their [email protected] investments through trade sale which will expose the MENA private equity sector to more Phone No:(965) 22951203 interesting exits structure. February 2010 MENA Private Equity 1 Global Research - MENA Global Investment House Private Equity in Emerging Markets Fundraising in Emerging Markets The fundraising in emerging markets has slowed down in 2009 affected by the crisis that began in the 4Q-2008 and continued through the 1Q-2009. According to a quarterly review published by Emerging Markets Private Equity Association (EMPEA), 84 private equity funds focused on emerging markets raised US$16bn in the first six months of the year which represent, a drop of 55% from 1H-2008 of (US$35.3bn raised by 132 funds). Emerging Markets Private Equity Fundraising $70 $60 $50 $30 $40 $34 2H (US$ bn) $30 1H $19 $20 $35 $25 $10 $14 $16 $- 2006 2007 2008 1 H 2009 Source: EMPEA During 2009, all emerging markets witnessed a dramatic drop in both capital commitment and number of funds closed, except the MENA region focused funds which saw a slight growth in both angles. As per EMPEA, Asia fundraising has decreased by approximately 58% and the number of funds closed has decreased by 45%. Talking about China and India separately, fundraising for China slowed in the 1H-2009, with a 77% decrease in funds raised at US$2.7bn, down from US$11.8bn in the same period in 2008. In line with the rest of Emerging Asia, fundraising in India dropped through 1H-2009 to US$2.5bn versus US$3.7bn raised during 1H-2008. Fundraising in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe have fallen by almost 40%. African fundraising has also witnessed a decrease, though it was steady since 2007. Fundraised by Regional Focus (US$bn) 1H2009 Growth Emerging Asia 11.1 -58% Multi region 0.2 -94% CEE/Russia 1.8 -29% Latin America/Caribbean 0.9 -30% Africa 1.0 -21% MENA 1.2 5% Total 16.2 -54% Source: EMPEA 1H-2009 has been very challenging in terms of fundraising and the number of funds closed which resulted in smaller fund size, as GPs adjusted target sizes of the funds to align with the correction of the entry valuation. In emerging markets, average fund sizes during 1H-2009 fell to US$190mn compared to US$267mn for the same period last year, representing a 41% decline. 2 MENA Private Equity February 2010 Global Research - MENA Global Investment House Fundraised by Sector 2008 2007 No of 2007 Fund Value 2008 No of 2008 Fund Value Sector Funds (US$ mn) Funds (US$ mn) Generalist 118 39,137 147 54,150 Technology 34 7,595 22 2,884 Infrastructure 8 3,395 15 5,750 Energy/Natural Resources 7 2,838 6 688 Financial Services 3 1,020 2 625 Industrial/Manufacturing 5 981 1 200 Consumer 4 624 4 456 Agriculture/Agribusiness 4 356 4 299 Environment 4 262 3 250 Telecom 0 - 2 485 Other 17 2,952 4 580 Total 204 59,160 210 66,367 Source: EMPEA A vast majority of funds pursuing opportunities in the emerging markets continued to be generalist in their approach. Almost 70% of the funds in the market were generalist in their strategy representing 82% of the capital raised. Among the specialist funds, Infrastructure and Technology remained to be the dominant strategies representing 18% of the funds in the market. According to EMPEA, during 1H-2009 private equity investment in the emerging markets dropped to US$12.8bn as compared to US$26.6bn in 1H-2008, representing a decrease of 52%. The US$12.8bn was invested in 265 transactions, compared to US$26.6bn and 391 transactions for the same period last year. Funds Performance The effects of the financial crisis on private equity fund performance have become much more pronounced, a reflection of the deterioration in global markets. The drop in performance that started in 3Q-2008 has continued as a result of marking to market and subsequent write downs, although the most recent performance figures suggest a potential leveling off particularly among Asia private equity funds. Regional Comparative Returns Index One Year Three Years Five Years Ten Years Emerging Markets VC&PE -17.6 5.5 11.4 5.4 Asia (ex Japan) PE -11.7 4.8 7.5 4.6 CEE & Russia PE -41.7 2.1 22.1 14.1 Latin America & Caribbean PE -21.8 13.3 18.3 0.3 MSCI Emerging Markets -27.8 3.3 15.1 9.0 US VC -17.1 1.3 5.7 14.3 US PE -20.6 0.9 9.9 7.7 Western Europe PE -36.9 2.1 17.9 16.8 S&P 500 -26.2 -8.2 -2.2 -2.2 Source: EMPA Asof june 2009 As per the data compiled by the Cambridge Associates LLC index, private equity return in February 2010 MENA Private Equity 3 Global Research - MENA Global Investment House the emerging markets have inched up during the period ending June 30, with one year net IRRs of --17.6% compared to the lowest point of -31.81% in the period ending December 31, 2008 while both the Latin America and CEE/Russia indices saw improvement in returns for the period ending June 30, 2009. Asian index showed the greatest improvement in one- year returns with a net IRR of -11.67% as of June 30, 2009 versus -25.69% as of March 31, 2009. Recent improvements in performance coincided with the rebound in public markets, and in some part likely reflect the mark-to-market effects on carrying values of unrealized portfolios. Returns from EM PE and VC funds outstripped both the MSCI EM Index and the S&P Index for the one and three-year periods ending June 30. Private equity as an asset class has outperformed the S&P 500 across all time periods measured. 4 MENA Private Equity February 2010 Global Research - MENA Global Investment House MENA Private Equity Private equity in MENA was not immune to the financial crisis in 2009. During the financial collapse in last autumn, private equity in the MENA did not get affected because they scarcely use leverage as a funding method. However in 2009, Private Equity in the MENA has witnessed a different behavior. Fundraising has become a challenge in the MENA region which has been known for its high liquidity. Deal activities have also fallen massively, despite Private Equity houses having enough cash for acquisitions. Exit options are far fewer and limited and it has been very challenging for returns to meet the expectation of the investor, thus the industry is experiencing a real shake up. The sharp reversal of economic fortunes has driven most private equity houses to redesign their investment strategy. The bulk of PE houses, however, are focusing on a selected number of non-cyclical sectors to invest in, with the consensus being to invest in defensive sectors such as education, healthcare, fast moving consumer goods, and related industries that will survive the downturn. Fundraising in the MENA region During 2009, the private equity activities have been almost stagnant with a limited new investment.
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