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The Economic Outlook 2021 – the Year of Expected Recovery

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The Economic Outlook 2021 – the Year of Expected Recovery February 25, 2021 George Mokrzan, Ph.D., Director of Economics The Economic Outlook 2021 – The Year of Expected Recovery American consumers started the year off doing what they do best – spending. After a disappointing holiday shopping season, retail sales bounced back 5.3% in January from December - five times market expectations and the highest percent gain since June. The strong start to the year signaled that the anticipated acceleration of economic growth in 2021 had begun. Real GDP is forecasted to grow at 5.7% in 2021, upwardly revised from 4.7% in the previous forecast. The distribution of vaccines to the most vulnerable parts of the population, fiscal stimulus from the $908 billion Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act, and monetary stimulus from the ongoing massive Federal Reserve response to COVID-19 are expected to sustain the overall economic recovery that began in the third quarter of 2020. Consumer spending in service industries negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely accelerate broadly in 2021 after the distribution of vaccines reduces health risks, especially to the most vulnerable in the population. This spending will augment already strong consumer spending on goods and housing. Residential investment has been especially strong and is expected to continue. GDP Projected to Grow Strongly in 2021 The recovery in the U.S. economy will likely be replicated in other parts of the world as timely vaccine developments coupled with policy stimulus abroad create a synchronized international economic recovery, supporting a continued rebound in international trade. Labor markets are expected to be soft in the first quarter before resuming a strong upward trend, with the unemployment rate ending the year at 4.5%. Inflation is expected to rise 2.6% for the year, upwardly revised from the previous forecast of 2.3%. Inflation risks are expected to remain to the upside this year as large parts of the services economy reopen from COVID-19 limitations. Inflation is anticipated to remain on a rising trend in 2022 as economic stimulus continues to pour into the economy from historic levels of monetary and fiscal policy. The Fed Funds rate target is expected to reside in the 0.0% - 0.25% range throughout this year as the Federal Reserve will likely be cautious not to forestall the recovery. Central bank bond purchases are downward forces on government bond yields, thereby posing a constraint on long-term interest rate increases this year. However, with economic growth and inflation normalizing, the depressed 10-year Treasury yield is forecasted to climb to 1.75% by year-end, returning to its range during the 3-month period prior to the COVID-19 crisis. Interest rates and inflation are likely to push higher in 2022 if highly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies become permanent – a risk that could create unintended consequences. The forecast solely incorporates fiscal policies approved by Congress as of the time of this publication. If further fiscal stimulus measures to counter the COVID-19 crisis are enacted, then the forecasts for GDP, inflation, and market interest rates would likely be revised upwards, depending on the specifics of any new legislation. Retail Sales Revive in January After slowing during the COVID-19 impacted fourth quarter, retail sales rose strongly by 5.3% from December to January. Retail sales not only rose from December, but also were up significantly over January of last year, a month before COVID-19 became an impediment to spending. Vehicle sales were up 13.0% in January over last year, retail spending excluding vehicles was up 6.1% YoY, and retail spending that excluded vehicle and fuel sales was up 7.6%. Spending increases were broad-based, but clearly reflected consumer adaptation to COVID-19 restrictions. Spending on the home was high as sales at Building Materials and Garden Supply stores were up 19.0% from January 2020. Furniture and Home Furnishings also rose +5.0% YoY. Consumers continued to spend highly on Food and Beverages (+11.8% YoY), Health & Personal Care (+6.2% YoY), and General Merchandise (+5.9% YoY). Consumers occupied themselves with Sporting Goods and Hobbies, up +22.5% from last January. They also continued to have goods delivered to their homes from Non-store Retailers, up +28.7%. Not all industries benefitted from the at-home lifestyle. Spending was down -7.8% YoY at gasoline stations, down -11.0% at Clothing and Accessories stores, and down -16.6% from January 2020 at Food Services & Drinking Places. As vaccines become more widely distributed to the population and consumers increase travel and dining outside the home, sales are expected to increase significantly in industries dependent on mobility and social contact. 2 The strong retail spending surge in January reflects a consumer that is able and willing to spend. Stimulus checks to consumers from the $908 billion Supplemental CARES Act was a boost to personal incomes and spending in January. A generally sound average consumer in conjunction with increased vaccines, the end of the flu season, and the release of high pent-up demand will likely lead to strong consumer spending in the coming months and in 2021 overall. Retail Sales Start the Year Sharply Upwards Commodity Prices Stage A Strong Rebound Commodity Prices rose strongly in early 2021, continuing a whipsaw recovery from precipitous declines in March and April of last year. The V-like economic recovery in the United States and much of Asia, coupled with extraordinary monetary stimulus by central banks across all continents, have helped to restore prices across the commodity space. The prices of a broad range of metals, industrial materials, foods, and even beleaguered energy products have been rising strongly. In addition to global recovery and open monetary spigots, massive fiscal policy support is adding fuel to the aggregate demand increase that is driving overall commodity price increases. 3 Commodities Becoming Valuable Again At its highest level since September 22, 2014, the highly followed CRB Commodity Price Index rose 18.1% between February 15, 2020 and February 15, 2021. (Please see the above chart. The period marked in grey is the official National Bureau of Economic Research recessionary period). The CRB index is comprised of a broad range of non-energy materials. The Metals sub-index includes copper, lead, steel, tin, and zinc. Foodstuffs represent 10 commodity markets such as grains, beans, pork, and steers. Industrial materials encompass materials such as burlap, other textiles, rubber, and resins. Metals have risen the most, but all commodity types have been moving upwards. The strong recovery in commodity prices has raised the question of whether inflationary pressures are rising. To examine this question, we focus on another commodity price index produced by the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) – the FIBER Industrial Materials Price index. This index is comprised of many of the same Metals and Industrial Materials that are part of the CRB Commodity Price index. It also includes Crude Oil and Benzene and excludes foodstuffs. The index’s history aligns with inflationary and non-inflationary periods in the United States. Periods when the index is rising strongly tend to coincide with high inflation periods. Periods when the index is relatively stable tend to align with low inflation periods. In the chart below, the FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index rose strongly during the high inflation period of the 1970s. It also rose during the first decade of the New Millennium (2000s). While inflation in the CPI-U during the 2000s did not reach the high rates of the 1970s, high inflation did occur in housing markets – the boom that led to the housing bust and Great Recession. The years leading up to the Great Recession also experienced high growth in energy prices. 4 Commodity Prices as Inflation Indicators FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index Log Scale 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 616365676971737577798183858789919395979901030507091113151719 Most Recent Data: January 2021 In the first half of 2020, the FIBER Industrial Materials Price index declined briefly below the low range of the index for the first time since the Great Recession. The recovery in the index has been quick and sharply upwards to a level today that approaches the highs of the index over the last decade. If the index stabilizes and remains within its upper range of recent years, then its activity would be consistent with the continuation of a stable overall inflation environment. On the other hand, if the index breaks to higher levels in the months to come, then the indicator would point to rising overall inflation. We will be watching this indicator of inflation and others in the coming months, especially given recent developments in the expansion of the money supply. Money Supply at Historic Highs Since the COVID-19 shutdowns in March and April, money supply has made a meteoric ascent. The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the globe commenced massive bond buying programs to bring down long-term interest rates and provide needed liquidity. These purchases swelled their balance sheets and injected correspondingly large quantities of reserves into the banking system. Please see the following chart. In turn, the banking system multiplied these high-powered reserves into record money supply growth in a process known as the Money Supply Multiplier, in which bank lending and purchases of securities lead to deposit growth throughout the banking system. M2 grew a record 25.8% in January compared to January 2020. MZM (zero maturity) grew the most since November 1983 at 29.3% in May and has come down somewhat since then.
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