Oil & Oil Services

Equity Research - 13 January 2020 06:56 CET Oil & Oil Services Q4’19 reports likely to be mixed

 Big differences from company to company  2020 is likely to be another stock picking year

 We highlight 5 large caps and 3 small caps Akastor, Aker ASA, Aker BP, Aker Solutions, Archer, Borr Drilling, Equinor, KOG, DRLCO, Gradual, but small improvements in fundamentals Noreco, Ocean Yield, Odfjell Drilling, PGS, We expect the Brent oil price to trade near the USD 65/bbl level in 2020 Polarcus, Seabird, Subsea 7, TGS Nopec and offshore exploration and production (E&P) to grow 5%. In other words, we forecast only modest improvements in fundamentals, similar to the situation experienced in 2019.

Company-specific news likely to drive share prices in 2020 BW Offshore, DNO, EMGS, Kvaerner, Huge differences in share price performance were prevalent among and Lundin Petroleum, Magseis, NODL, oil service shares in 2019. Given our view on 2020 (only modest general Prosafe, Seadrill improvements in fundamentals), we think company specifics again will be the key drivers for share prices. In general, our top picks have the following characteristics: strong balance sheets, strong market positions, ABGSC estimates are above consensus, improving company specific

and positive free cash flow.

Our best ideas The following companies are our top picks, all rated BUY ‒ Aker BP (with Reporting dates: Q4'19 JS, 2020 will be year of de-risking and FCF focus, ~8% 2021 dividend PGS 30/01/2020 yield is likely too high); Aker ASA (its industrial holdings like AKERBP, Lundin Petroleum 31/01/2020 OCY, AKA and AKSO have positive repricing potential in 2020, and DRLCO 05/02/2020 unlisted assets have potential to boost NAV); Maersk Drilling (positive Equinor 06/02/2020 cash flow and potential announcement of a clear dividend policy could be DNO 06/02/2020 a trigger for the share); Odfjell Drilling (FCF allows for deleveraging of the Prosafe 06/02/2020 balance sheet, low valuation); PGS (improving contract prices and a EMGS 06/02/2020 possible shareholder-friendly refinancing); Noreco (strong FCF within Aker Solutions 07/02/2020 sight, low valuation); Akastor (very low valuation, potential M&A triggers); Aker BP 11/02/2020 Polarcus (improving contract prices and deleveraging). Kvaerner 12/02/2020 Ocean Yield ASA 12/02/2020 We have made two rating changes: Northern Drilling downgraded to Awilco Drilling 12/02/2020 HOLD (Buy) and Maersk Drilling upgraded to BUY (Hold). TGS Nopec 12/02/2020 Kongsberg Gruppen 12/02/2020 Lead Analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 Akastor 13/02/2020 [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 Aker ASA 14/02/2020 [email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65 Noreco 25/02/2020 Magseis ASA 25/02/2020 Subsea 7 26/02/2020 Polarcus 27/02/2020 Archer Limited 27/02/2020 Seadrill 27/02/2020 Odfjell Drilling 27/02/2020 Key estimates (mill. b/d) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Borr Drilling 28/02/2020 Global oil demand 95.0 96.2 98.1 99.3 100.3 101.6 103.0 Non-OPEC production 59.8 59.1 59.8 63.0 64.9 67.0 68.2 BW Offshore 28/02/2020 OPEC NGL 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 Northern Drilling 28/02/2020 Call on OPEC crude 30.0 31.6 32.7 30.8 29.9 29.0 29.2 Seabird OPEC crude production 31.4 32.4 32.0 31.9 30.0 29.4 29.4 Implied global stock build/draw (+/-) 1.5 0.7 -0.7 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.2

Key assumptions: Oil price (USD) 53 44 54 71 64 65 65 Global GDP growth (PPP adj.) 3.5 % 3.4 % 3.8 % 3.6 % 3.0 % 3.3 % 3.4 % Oil & Oil Services

Contents

Investment summary ...... 4

Oil market and the oil price ...... 14

E&P spending ...... 18

E&P company overview ...... 20

Aker BP ...... 22

DNO...... 24

Equinor ...... 26

Lundin Petroleum ...... 28

Noreco...... 30

Seismic market & company overview ...... 32

EMGS...... 34

Magseis ...... 36

PGS ...... 38

Polarcus ...... 40

Seabird ...... 42

TGS Nopec ...... 44

Drilling market & company overview ...... 46

Awilco Drilling ...... 48

Borr Drilling ...... 50

Maersk Drilling ...... 52

Northern Drilling Limited ...... 54

Odfjell Drilling ...... 56

Seadrill ...... 58

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Field dev. market & company overview ...... 60

Akastor ...... 62

Aker ASA ...... 64

Aker Solutions ...... 66

Archer Limited ...... 68

BW Offshore ...... 70

Kongsberg Gruppen ...... 72

Kvaerner ...... 74

Ocean Yield...... 76

Prosafe ...... 78

Subsea 7 ...... 80

Company financials ...... 82

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Investment summary Only small improvements in fundamentals We forecast only For 2020, we expect: modest improvements in  A flattish oil price around USD 65 fundamentals for oil and oil service in  A moderate, 5% increase in offshore E&P spending 2020 Main assumptions (key figures highlighted in yellow) Key assumptions 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Future price (Brent, USD) 62 59 Factset (Brent, USD) 64 66 ABGSC (Brent, USD) 53 44 54 71 64 65 65 Q1 55 34 54 67 63 65 65 Q2 62 46 50 75 69 65 65 Q3 51 46 52 75 62 65 65 Q4 44 49 62 68 63 65 65 Other key assumptions: WTI (USD) 49 43 51 60 57 60 60 Brent-WTI spread 4.0 0.2 3.3 10.6 7.3 5.0 5.0

Offshore E&P spending growth -20% -25% -12% 0% 3% 5% 7% NOK/USD 8.06 8.40 8.27 8.13 8.80 9.00 9.00

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

2019 was a year for stock pickers; 2020 ‒ likely the same Fundamentals The charts below shows that 2019 was a typical stock-picking year. Norwegian oil trailing sideways and oil shares were flat on average, but the differences among winners and losers means another were huge. stock-picking year Nordic oil and oil service shares’ performance in 2019

150%

109% 100% 61%58% 48% 46%43%40% 50% 32%32% 26% 23%19% 0% 0% 0% -2% -5% -8% -24%-27%-29% -50% -38% -45% -57%-59%-61% -74%

-100% -84%-87%

IPC

Borr

PGS

KOG DNO

Axxis

EMGS

Noreco

Akastor

Seabird Prosafe

Aker BP Aker

Equinor Magseis

Polarcus

Kvaerner

Subsea 7 Subsea

Aker ASA Aker

TGS Nopec TGS

Seadrill Ltd. Seadrill

Ocean Yield Ocean

BW Offshore BW

Odfjell Drilling Odfjell

Awilco Drilling Awilco

Archer Limited Archer Solutions Aker

Northern Drilling Northern Lundin Petroleum Lundin

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

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Our best ideas Oil companies are Given the assumptions of a flat oil price and only a modest increase in E&P increasing spending, we think 2020 is likely to be another year for stock pickers in the oil & oil spending – services sector. Our top picks appear in the table below. In general, our top picks improving oil have the following characteristics: services fundamentals  Strong balance sheets ahead  Strong market positions

 ABGSC estimates are above consensus

 Improving company specifics

 Positive free cash flow

Sector top picks

Idea Stocks Currency Price Target Upside Long Large cap Aker ASA NOK 548.5 675.0 23% Aker BP NOK 291.0 360.0 24% Maersk Drilling DKK 431.8 610.0 41% Odfjell Drilling NOK 28.4 40.0 41% PGS NOK 18.4 23.0 25%

Small cap Akastor NOK 9.4 17.0 81% Norwegian Energy Company NOK 226.5 360.0 59% Polarcus NOK 1.3 2.0 58%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

Top long/funding candidate investment cases Our best long ideas large caps:

 Aker ASA – BUY with a target price of NOK 675: We find Aker ASA to be an attractive way to play its equally attractively priced industrial holdings like AKERBP, OCY, AKA and AKSO, all with significant repricing potential, in our view. The discount, using only reported values for Aker Energy and Cognite, is ~20%, which looks attractive, as we believe that there is considerable upside potential to the value of these holdings. Aker Energy (ABGSCE fair value NOK 60/share) is likely to proceed with the development plan this year. We forecast an increasing dividend for ’19e of NOK 25/share.

 Aker BP – BUY with a target price of NOK 360 (335): We expect to see positive news flow for Aker BP in the near term, with both Aker BP and its key peers LUPE and EQNR hosting CMD/CMUs in conjunction with the Q4 numbers. We believe that we will see positive reserve revisions and potential further cost reductions for Johan Sverdrup, following the indications of very good flow from the pre-drilled wells. Furthermore, we expect another active exploration year for Aker BP, following a 2019 of more than 200mill boe. We estimated NOK 15/sh in NAV contribution for 2019. We also find it likely that there will be a solution to the Aker BP/Equinor NOAKA situation, where a full de-risking would add NOK 19/sh to our Aker BP NAV. Our USD 65/bbl NAV YE’20 points to NOK 279/sh, but Aker BP has historically traded at an implied oil price of 1.2x the spot

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price, motivating our increased target price of NOK 360. In addition to the NAV support, we find the 7.4% dividend yield for ’20e attractive.

 Maersk Drilling – BUY (Hold) with a target price of DKK 610: With DRLCO turning more FCF-positive, we think it may provide some guidance on potential cash returns to shareholders and believe that a clear dividend strategy would be a strong signal about DRLCO’s faith and ability to navigate the cycle as well as a positive trigger for the share. We estimate that DRLCO could distribute its entire FCF of ~USD 330m in 2021 (implying a dividend yield of ~12%) and keep leverage ratio below 2.0x. DRLCO remains the least-levered offshore driller, with solid contract coverage, trading at P/NAV of 0.79x and EV/GAV of 0.84x, compared to peers at 0.79x and 0.94x.

 Odfjell Drilling – BUY with TP NOK 40: Recent backlog additions have improved near-term contract coverage, allowing for further deleveraging of the balance sheet (we project NIBD/EBITDA to decline from today’s ~3.8x to ~2.5x in 2021e) and opening up for dividends from 2022. We estimate that ODL is trading at an implied age-adjusted steel value of ~USD 424m per HE UDW semi, implying a P/NAV of 0.75x and EV/GAV of 0.89x. This compares to peers at 0.79x and 0.94x, respectively, which we find unjustified given ODL’s robust coverage and solid financial position throughout our forecast period.

 PGS – BUY with a target price of NOK 23 (21): We are confident that the seismic contract market is improving significantly, which should mean continuous improvements in PGS quarterly reports in 2020. With a likely very strong free cash flow in Q4’19 and Q1’20, we think PGS should be able to refinance in a shareholder friendly way during Q1’20. We think the low multiples and high FCF will trigger the share price higher.

Our best long ideas small caps/illiquid stocks:

 Akastor – BUY with a target price of NOK 17: Akastor was down significantly in ‘19e as the share traded down with the drilling space, despite a superior free cash flow profile. In the past, the company has divested all assets at premium to book value, which is currently NOK 14/share. Applying NOV multiples to our ‘19e MHWirth EBITDA, and book values for the rest of the assets, we arrive at SOTP of NOK 25/share.

 Noreco – BUY with a target price of NOK 360: Noreco has gradually provided more details on the resources beyond the 2P reserves, and at the Q3 report, it highlighted three concrete projects it targets to develop. We expect that Noreco will use 2020 to open the curtains further and provide insight into the resource hopper. Even more important is to move from plan to production, and some projects are likely to be sanctioned in the medium term. We see Noreco as well capitalized to address such low-risk growth opportunities. In terms of distributions, we find it likely that Noreco will initiate buybacks shortly (it is authorized to buy up to 719,473 shares, 2.9% of the shares outstanding). Given that Noreco trades at a P/NAV of 0.7x (assuming USD 65/bbl oil), we find that a buyback would be both accretive to NAV (by ~2.5% at the current share price) and could offer sought after short-term liquidity in the stock. For the longer term, we think increased share liquidity through a more dispersed shareholder base is required.

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Polarcus – BUY with a target price of NOK 2.0 (2.5): Polarcus should benefit from improving contract prices, higher vessel utilization and generally better contract terms (e.g. lower weather risk, paid for stand-by, etc.) in 2020. With about NOK 6 in net debt per share, the financial leverage is high, which should work in its favour in an improving market. Improving earnings, positive FCF and low multiples make the share look attractive.

Rating changes:

 Northern Drilling – HOLD (Buy) with TP NOK 25 (90): In connection with the planned spin-off of the two harsh-environment rigs (Mira and Bollsta), the new company (Northern Ocean) has raised USD 100m in equity, while Northern Drilling Limited (NODL) shareholders will have an opportunity to exchange their shares into Northern Ocean shares at a yet-to-be decided exchange ratio. The split will leave investors with two vehicles with different risk profiles: one with contracted cash flows and the other as an option on UDW recovery. Awaiting the exchange offer, we downgrade the stock to HOLD.  Maersk Drilling – BUY (Hold) with TP DKK 610: See above.

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Sector estimates and valuation Our coverage Below we list the companies that are now under our coverage. The shares are ranked in order of those that offer what we consider the best risk/reward within the various sub-segments. The table on the next page shows the key multiples based on our earnings forecasts. Coverage by sub-sector Local currency Mcap YE EV Performance Sector/Company Rating Price Target Upside USDm USDm YTD 1yr 3yr 5yr Oil and E&P Aker BP Buy 291.0 360.0 24% 11,792 14,961 1% 21% 109% 755% Norwegian Energy Company Buy 226.5 360.0 59% 626 870 0% -5% -2% 50% Equinor Buy 181.5 200.0 10% 66,288 83,535 3% -2% 29% 68% Lundin Petroleum Hold 322.1 330.0 2% 9,640 13,023 2% 35% 88% 243% DNO Hold 10.3 11.0 7% 1,141 1,237 -11% -29% 19% -32% Seismic PGS Buy 18.4 23.0 25% 671 1,553 7% 9% -38% -53% Polarcus Buy 1.3 2.0 58% 73 345 -5% 1% -71% -98% TGS Nopec Buy 259.2 300.0 16% 3,470 3,062 -3% 8% 45% 81% Seabird Buy 0.6 0.8 32% 35 7% -60% -99% -99% Magseis Hold 5.2 5.0 -4% 109 126 -10% -70% -57% -79% EMGS Hold 2.1 2.5 21% 31 45 -1% 36% -69% -98% Drilling Odfjell Drilling Buy 28.4 40.0 41% 757 1,786 -13% 5% 105% 125% Maersk Drilling Buy 431.8 610.0 41% 2,664 3,634 -2% na na na Borr Drilling Limited Buy 71.9 100.0 39% 897 3,221 -5% -39% -54% na Awilco Drilling PLC Buy 14.1 35.0 149% 84 101 -9% -51% -36% -36% Seadrill Ltd. Hold 17.0 10.0 -41% 191 5,924 -17% -82% na na Northern Drilling Limited Hold 19.9 25.0 26% 241 628 -4% -68% na na Other oil services Aker ASA Buy 548.5 675.0 23% 4,585 1% 9% 84% 293% Akastor Buy 9.4 17.0 81% 288 465 -5% -31% -37% -51% Subsea 7 Buy 105.7 125.0 18% 3,590 3,275 1% 12% 9% 60% Aker Solutions Buy 24.4 32.0 31% 747 1,424 -1% -46% -43% -25% Ocean Yield Buy 48.2 60.0 24% 951 2,566 0% -8% 8% 76% Kongsberg Gruppen Buy 148.9 165.0 11% 3,002 3,226 8% 28% 44% 53% Archer Limited Buy 3.4 5.0 49% 56 580 6% -33% -74% -90% BW Offshore Limited Hold 64.3 70.0 9% 1,339 2,290 -3% 63% 135% -18% Kvaerner Hold 11.0 12.0 9% 333 -223 -1% -6% 9% 36% Prosafe Hold 4.1 5.0 22% 41 1,281 94% -77% -88% -95%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, FactSet

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Key multiples for our coverage EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E P/B Dividend yield FCF yield Sector/Company 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Oil and E&P Aker BP 6.4 4.0 3.3 10.5 5.2 4.3 66.4 16.1 13.4 4.9 5.2 5.3 7% 7% 8% n.m. 6% 8% Norwegian Energy Company 3.7 1.7 2.5 n.m. 2.2 3.4 3.8 6.7 11.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0% 0% 0% n.m. n.m. n.m. Equinor 3.8 3.1 2.8 7.4 4.5 4.0 20.0 10.6 9.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% Lundin Petroleum 5.9 4.0 3.6 7.1 4.8 4.3 14.9 15.0 14.1 n.m. n.m. n.m. 6% 7% 9% 13% 9% 11% DNO 3.0 2.0 1.8 13.5 3.4 3.1 14.1 6.3 7.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 4% 4% 4% n.m. 39% 27% Seismic PGS 3.3 2.2 1.8 26.2 6.7 4.8 n.m. 5.7 4.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0% 0% 0% 34% 40% 32% Polarcus 6.2 3.5 2.5 13.7 5.4 3.8 n.m. 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0% 0% 0% 30% 56% 74% TGS Nopec 4.9 3.7 3.4 12.4 7.9 7.7 17.5 11.4 11.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 4% 5% 8% 6% 8% 9% Seabird n.m. 2.9 1.8 n.m. 17.3 5.7 n.m. 21.1 7.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0% 0% 0% n.m. 11% 11% Magseis 2.8 3.0 0.9 n.m. n.m. 10.3 n.m. n.m. 23.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 74% EMGS 1.2 2.2 2.6 3.1 8.8 n.m. 4.7 11.5 n.m. 4.1 3.0 3.8 0% 0% 0% 44% 18% 10% Drilling Odfjell Drilling 6.0 5.0 4.1 13.6 10.5 8.4 17.6 9.9 7.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0% 0% 0% n.m. 22% 35% Maersk Drilling 9.2 7.5 5.8 n.m. 38.8 16.9 n.m. 193.4 18.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0% 0% 6% 2% 5% 12% Borr Drilling Limited 850.5 30.9 15.9 n.m. n.m. 52.4 n.m. n.m. n.m. 1.3 0.7 0.8 0% 0% 0% n.m. n.m. 8% Awilco Drilling PLC 10.3 n.m. 25.7 n.m. n.m. 60.3 n.m. n.m. n.m. 0.3 0.3 0.4 0% 0% 0% n.m. n.m. n.m. Seadrill Ltd. 20.4 26.7 16.2 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 0.1 0.2 0.4 0% 0% 0% n.m. n.m. n.m. Northern Drilling Limited 1890.0 9.0 11.8 n.m. 13.7 17.9 n.m. 7.8 9.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0% 0% 0% n.m. 23% n.m. Other oil services Aker ASA Akastor 3.5 2.1 1.0 7.8 3.9 1.6 34.2 9.9 6.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0% 0% 0% n.m. 12% 11% Subsea 7 6.1 4.6 3.7 31.7 12.8 8.8 57.0 21.7 16.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 1% 1% 1% 6% 12% 12% Aker Solutions 5.1 5.7 4.2 13.5 15.1 8.6 26.0 32.1 13.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0% 2% 2% n.m. 11% 17% Ocean Yield 12.1 9.6 8.7 34.6 12.6 11.3 n.m. 10.5 9.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 14% 11% 11% n.m. 25% 26% Kongsberg Gruppen 13.8 9.5 7.3 30.6 17.1 11.3 47.3 22.0 14.7 2.1 1.9 1.8 1% 2% 3% n.m. 6% 8% Archer Limited 6.8 5.6 4.7 15.1 10.4 7.8 n.m. 6.0 2.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0% 0% 0% n.m. 73% 67% BW Offshore Limited 3.3 3.5 3.1 7.6 9.0 6.1 17.1 11.7 7.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0% 3% 3% 20% 5% 13% Kvaerner 1.1 3.4 1.2 1.7 23.3 2.4 11.7 214.9 25.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0% 0% 0% n.m. n.m. 9% Prosafe 11.7 32.6 22.2 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 0% 0% 0% n.m. 12% n.m.

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, FactSet

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Estimate and target price changes The table below shows our main estimate changes. See company sections later in this report for more details on the company-specific estimate changes.

Estimate changes Prev. Forecast New forecast % change Company 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Aker BP AKERBP.OL -Sales (USDm) 3,459 4,896 5,718 3,404 4,937 5,729 -2% 1% 0% -EBITDA (USDm) 2,355 3,696 4,452 2,304 3,730 4,511 -2% 1% 1% -EBIT (USDm) 1,457 2,846 3,445 1,410 2,873 3,514 -3% 1% 2% -EPS (USD) 0.52 2.01 2.33 0.49 2.03 2.45 -5% 1% 5% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 335.0 Buy 360.0 - 7% DNO DNO.OL -Sales (USDm) 974 982 883 974 982 883 0% 0% 0% -EBITDA (USDm) 567 625 540 567 625 540 0% 0% 0% -EBIT (USDm) 126 365 315 126 365 315 0% 0% 0% -EPS (USD) 0.08 0.18 0.16 0.08 0.18 0.16 0% 0% 0% -Rec & TP (NOK) Hold 11.0 Hold 11.0 - 0% Equinor EQNR.OL -Sales (USDm) 67,824 67,281 69,637 66,867 68,015 71,055 -1% 1% 2% -EBITDA (USDm) 23,563 27,612 30,625 22,750 27,158 29,368 -3% -2% -4% -EBIT (USDm) 12,191 18,234 21,147 11,565 18,496 20,497 -5% 1% -3% -EPS (USD) 1.09 1.93 2.30 1.02 1.94 2.14 -6% 0% -7% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 200.0 Buy 200.0 - 0% Lundin Petroleum Lupe.ST -Sales (USDm) 2,889 3,907 3,759 2,867 3,688 3,765 -1% -6% 0% -EBITDA (USDm) 2,461 3,473 3,458 2,440 3,262 3,465 -1% -6% 0% -EBIT (USDm) 2,034 2,909 3,012 2,013 2,714 2,943 -1% -7% -2% -EPS (USD) 2.29 2.41 2.54 2.27 2.26 2.41 -1% -6% -5% -Rec & TP (SEK) Hold 300.0 Hold 330.0 - 10% Noreco NOR.OL -Sales (USDm) 361 715 579 356 715 579 -1% 0% 0% -EBITDA (USDm) 197 509 358 192 509 358 -2% 0% 0% -EBIT (USDm) -142 397 257 -147 397 257 -3% 0% 0% -EPS (USD) 6.73 3.80 2.15 6.68 3.80 2.15 -1% 0% 0% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 360.0 Buy 360.0 - 0% EMGS EMGS.OL -Sales (USDm) 72 66 63 85 61 57 17% -8% -10% -EBITDA (USDm) 31 28 23 43 21 16 42% -26% -31% -EBIT (USDm) 10 8 0 16 5 -1 58% -36% n.m. -EPS (USD) 0.02 0.03 -0.01 0.05 0.02 -0.02 n.m. -42% n.m. -Rec & TP (NOK) Hold 3.5 Hold 2.5 - -29% Magseis MSEIS.OL -Sales (USDm) 461 362 427 463 342 388 0% -5% -9% -EBITDA (USDm) 52 53 76 41 42 55 -21% -20% -28% -EBIT (USDm) -12 8 26 -121 -3 5 n.m. n.m. -82% -EPS (USD) -0.10 -0.01 0.10 -0.68 -0.07 0.02 n.m. n.m. -76% -Target Price (NOK) Hold 7.0 Hold 5.0 - -29% PGS PGS.OL -Sales (USDm) 885 1,018 1,083 880 1,034 1,118 -1% 2% 3% -EBITDA (USDm) 565 682 724 552 698 760 -2% 2% 5% -EBIT (USDm) 68 224 250 70 231 276 2% 3% 11% -EPS (USD) -0.10 0.36 0.43 -0.09 0.37 0.47 4% 0% 9% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 21.0 Buy 23.0 - 10% Polarcus PLCS.OL -Sales (USDm) 296 271 289 296 279 291 0% 3% 1% -EBITDA (USDm) 62 95 112 62 98 114 0% 3% 2% -EBIT (USDm) 28 63 75 28 64 77 0% 2% 3% -EPS (USD) -0.01 0.07 0.10 -0.01 0.07 0.10 0% 0% 1% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 2.5 Buy 2.0 - -20%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 10

Oil & Oil Services

Estimate changes, cont’d Prev. Forecast New forecast % change Company 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e TGS Nopec TGS.OL -Sales (USDm) 823 1,011 1,076 783 978 1,046 -5% -3% -3% -EBITDA (USDm) 684 862 926 640 830 896 -6% -4% -3% -EBIT (USDm) 282 402 411 253 388 394 -11% -3% -4% -EPS (USD) 1.86 2.66 2.73 1.66 2.57 2.61 -11% -3% -4% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 300.0 Buy 300.0 - 0% Seabird SBX.OL -Sales (USDm) 50 63 71 49 60 68 -1% -5% -4% -EBITDA (USDm) -1 16 22 -3 12 17 n.m. -25% -19% -EBIT (USDm) -15 4 10 -17 2 5 12% -53% -48% -EPS (USD) -0.03 0.01 0.02 -0.03 0.00 0.01 12% -56% -49% -Target Price (NOK) Buy 0.8 Buy 0.8 - 0% Awilco Drilling AWDR.OL -Sales (USDm) 37 35 62 39 31 62 6% -10% 0% -EBITDA (USDm) 2 -6 20 4 -8 20 99% -25% 0% -EBIT (USDm) -9 -18 9 -7 -20 9 23% -9% 0% -EPS (USD) -0.15 -0.31 -0.38 -0.12 -0.33 -0.38 21% -8% 0% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 35.0 35.0 Buy 35.0 - 0% Borr Drilling Borr.OL -Sales (USDm) 342 544 695 346 544 695 1% 0% 0% -EBITDA (USDm) 0 104 198 4 104 198 n.m. 0% 0% -EBIT (USDm) -132 -12 60 -128 -12 60 3% 0% 0% -EPS (USD) -1.28 -0.94 -0.37 -1.26 -0.94 -0.37 1% 0% 0% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 100.0 Buy 100.0 - 0% Northern Drilling NODL.OL -Sales (USDm) 24 173 14 180 244 n.m. 4% -EBITDA (USDm) 3 63 0 70 90 -88% 11% -EBIT (USDm) 0 39 -2 46 60 n.m. 18% -EPS (USD) -0.01 0.29 -0.03 0.29 0.24 n.m. 0% -Target Price (NOK) 90.0 25.0 -72% Odfjell Drilling ODL.OL -Sales (USDm) 811 898 880 811 898 919 0% 0% 4% -EBITDA (USDm) 321 365 353 323 360 374 1% -1% 6% -EBIT (USDm) 139 175 163 142 170 184 2% -3% 13% -EPS (USD) 0.17 0.34 0.34 0.18 0.32 0.41 5% -5% 22% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 40.0 Buy 40.0 - 0% Seadrill SDRL.OL -Sales (USDm) 1,265 1,199 1,306 1,265 1,163 1,322 0% -3% 1% -EBITDA (USDm) 271 299 407 271 222 382 0% -26% -6% -EBIT (USDm) -287 -129 -21 -287 -206 -46 0% -60% n.m. -EPS (USD) n.m. -6.23 -4.92 n.m. -6.90 -5.09 n.m. -11% -3% -Rec & TP (NOK) Hold 10.0 Hold 10.0 - 0% The Drilling Company 1972 DRLCO.CO -Sales (USDm) 1,257 1,367 1,523 1,227 1,364 1,492 -2% 0% -2% -EBITDA (USDm) 411 477 633 411 486 598 0% 2% -6% -EBIT (USDm) 11 77 233 -2 94 206 n.m. 22% -12% -EPS (USD) -1.54 0.18 4.45 -2.33 0.33 3.53 -52% 87% -21% -Rec & TP (DKK) Hold 610.0 Buy 610.0 Up 0% Akastor AKA.OL -Sales (NOKm) 5,245 5,509 6,119 5,245 5,509 6,119 0% 0% 0% -EBITDA (NOKm) 475 490 615 475 490 615 0% 0% 0% -EBIT (NOKm) 212 268 402 212 268 402 0% 0% 0% -EPS (NOK) 0.27 0.95 1.37 0.27 0.95 1.37 0% 0% 0% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 17.0 Buy 17.0 - 0%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 11

Oil & Oil Services

Estimate changes, cont’d Prev. Forecast New forecast % change Company 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Aker ASA AKER.OL -Sales (USDm) -EBITDA (USDm) -EBIT (USDm) -EPS (USD) -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 675.0 Buy 675.0 - 0% Aker Solutions AKSO.OL -Sales (NOKm) 28,559 27,008 28,882 28,280 25,333 27,286 -1% -6% -6% -EBITDA (NOKm) 2,315 2,083 2,592 2,299 1,909 2,334 -1% -8% -10% -EBIT (NOKm) 874 886 1,391 858 718 1,147 -2% -19% -18% -EPS (NOK) 0.98 1.18 2.45 0.94 0.76 1.85 -4% -35% -25% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 32.0 Buy 32.0 - 0% Archer Limited Archer.OL -Sales (USDm) 912 997 1,048 914 945 1,041 0% -5% -1% -EBITDA (USDm) 89 108 117 90 104 116 1% -4% -1% -EBIT (USDm) 40 60 71 41 56 70 2% -7% -2% -EPS (USD) -0.40 0.08 0.17 -0.39 0.06 0.16 2% -26% -4% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 5.0 Buy 5.0 - 0% BW Offshore BWO.OL -Sales (USDm) 1,128 1,090 1,113 1,128 1,090 1,113 0% 0% 0% -EBITDA (USDm) 703 657 689 703 657 689 0% 0% 0% -EBIT (USDm) 307 254 351 307 254 351 0% 0% 0% -EPS (USD) 0.42 0.62 0.97 0.42 0.62 0.97 0% 0% 0% -Rec & TP (NOK) Hold 70.0 Hold 70.0 - 0% Kongsberg Gruppen KOG.OL -Sales (NOKm) 22,885 27,676 30,190 22,885 27,676 30,190 0% 0% 0% -EBITDA (NOKm) 2,054 2,805 3,414 2,054 2,805 3,414 0% 0% 0% -EBIT (NOKm) 927 1,563 2,206 927 1,563 2,206 0% 0% 0% -EPS (NOK) 3.15 6.76 10.11 3.15 6.76 10.11 0% 0% 0% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 160.0 Buy 165.0 - 3% Kvaerner KVAER.OL -Sales (NOKm) 9,332 6,225 7,325 9,332 6,225 7,325 0% 0% 0% -EBITDA (NOKm) 517 191 323 517 191 323 0% 0% 0% -EBIT (NOKm) 329 28 161 329 28 161 0% 0% 0% -EPS (NOK) 0.94 0.05 0.43 0.94 0.05 0.43 0% 0% 0% -Rec & TP (NOK) Hold 12.0 Hold 12.0 - 0% Ocean Yield ASA OCY.OL -Sales (USDm) 259 288 294 258 290 295 0% 1% 0% -EBITDA (USDm) 227 270 275 225 267 276 -1% -1% 0% -EBIT (USDm) 81 207 230 79 203 213 -3% -2% -7% -EPS (USD) -0.22 0.53 0.67 -0.21 0.52 0.59 5% -3% -12% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 63.0 Buy 60.0 - -5% Prosafe PRS.OL -Sales (USDm) 238 177 251 238 177 251 0% 0% 0% -EBITDA (USDm) 110 39 59 110 39 59 0% 0% 0% -EBIT (USDm) -332 -44 -14 -332 -44 -14 0% 0% 0% -EPS (USD) -4.90 -1.22 -0.89 -4.90 -1.22 -0.89 0% 0% 0% -Rec & TP (NOK) Hold 5.0 Hold 5.0 - 0% Subsea 7 SUBC.OL -Sales (USDm) 3,710 4,417 4,642 3,710 4,417 4,559 0% 0% -2% -EBITDA (USDm) 600 719 836 600 719 780 0% 0% -7% -EBIT (USDm) 115 257 384 115 257 328 0% 0% -15% -EPS (USD) 0.21 0.55 0.85 0.21 0.55 0.72 0% 0% -15% -Rec & TP (NOK) Buy 125.0 Buy 125.0 - 0%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 12

Oil & Oil Services

ABGSC vs. Consensus, 2020e EBIT

30% 20% EBIT'20e

10%

14%

15%

24%

25%

27% 43%

44%

17%

16%

11%

10%

- - -10% - -20%

-30%

ABGSCe ABGSCe vs. consensus

PGS -BuyPGS

DNO-Hold

EMGS - EMGS- Hold

Akastor -Buy Akastor

Aker BP - Buy Aker BP -

Equinor-Buy

Polarcus -BuyPolarcus

Subsea 7 -BuySubsea

Buy

TGS -BuyTGS Nopec

Ocean Yield - Ocean- YieldBuy

Seadrill Ltd. -Hold Ltd. Seadrill

Odfjell Drilling - Buy Drilling Odfjell-

Aker Solutions - Aker - Buy Solutions

Archer Limited - ArcherLimited- Buy

Maersk Drilling -BuyMaersk

Lundin PetroleumLundin -Hold

Awilco Drilling Awilco PLC - Buy

Kongsberg Gruppen -Buy Kongsberg Gruppen

BW OffshoreBW Limited-Hold Norwegian Energy- Norwegian Company

Northern Drilling -LimitedNorthern Hold

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

ABGSC vs. Consensus, 2021e EBIT

30% 20% EBIT'21e

10%

11%

20%

27%

31% 38%

34%

28%

23%

23% 14%

-10% 12%

- - -20%

-30%

ABGSCe ABGSCe vs. consensus

PGS -PGSBuy

DNO-Hold

Akastor -Buy Akastor

Aker BP - Buy Aker BP -

Equinor-Buy

Polarcus -BuyPolarcus

Subsea 7 -BuySubsea

Kvaerner Kvaerner - Hold

Buy

TGS -BuyTGS Nopec

Ocean Yield - Ocean- YieldBuy

Seadrill Ltd. -Hold Ltd. Seadrill

Odfjell Drilling - Buy OdfjellDrilling -

Aker Aker - SolutionsBuy

Archer Limited - Archer- Buy Limited

Maersk Drilling- Buy Maersk

Lundin PetroleumLundin -Hold

Awilco Drilling Awilco PLC - Buy

Kongsberg Gruppen -Buy Kongsberg Gruppen

BW Offshore-LimitedBWHold Norwegian Energy- Norwegian Company

Northern Drilling -LimitedNorthern Hold

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 13

Oil & Oil Services

Oil market and the oil price Supply response in focus

 We forecast non-OPEC production growth of 2.1mb/d in 2020 – coming mainly from three places: the US (shale), Norway (the Johan Sverdrup field) and Brazil WTI USD 50 too little, (four new fields about to start production). Our 2020 global GDP growth USD 60 too much assumption is 3.3%; we estimate global oil demand growth of 1.3mb/d. Based on these estimates, this means that 2020 call-on-OPEC will be negative by 0.8mb/d. Hence, we believe that it will be another year with focus on production cuts from OPEC+. On 6 December 2019, OPEC+ reaffirmed its production cut agreement, and the agreement was expanded by a further 0.5mb/d cuts plus 0.4mb/d of voluntary cuts, mainly from Saudi Arabia.

 Our thesis then remains that WTI 50/bbl is too little for the shale players to grow enough to balance the oil market, while at WTI 60+/bbl it is likely to grow too much. With the Brent-WTI spread at USD 5-10/bbl, we maintain our USD 65/bbl Brent oil price assumption.

Our estimates and consensus Our key oil market estimates appear below.

Our key oil market estimates Key estimates (mill. b/d) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Global oil demand 85.5 88.4 89.3 90.5 92.3 93.7 95.0 96.2 98.1 99.3 100.3 101.6 103.0 y-o-y change (mill. b/d) -1.0 3.0 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.4 y-o-y change (%) -1.1 % 3.5 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 2.0 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.2 % 2.0 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.4 %

Non-OPEC production 51.8 53.3 53.5 54.3 56.0 58.3 59.8 59.1 59.8 63.0 64.9 67.0 68.2 y-o-y change (mill. b/d) 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 1.4 -0.7 0.7 3.2 1.9 2.1 1.1

OPEC NGL 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 Call on OPEC crude 29.2 30.5 31.0 31.2 31.4 30.2 30.0 31.6 32.7 30.8 29.9 29.0 29.2 OPEC crude production 29.1 29.2 29.8 31.3 30.3 30.2 31.4 32.4 32.0 31.9 30.0 29.4 29.4 Implied global stock build/draw (+/-) -0.1 -1.3 -1.2 0.0 -1.1 0.0 1.5 0.7 -0.7 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.2

Key assumptions: Oil price (USD) 62 80 111 112 109 99 53 44 54 71 64 65 65 Global GDP growth (PPP adj.) -0.6 % 5.1 % 4.3 % 3.5 % 3.5 % 3.6 % 3.5 % 3.4 % 3.8 % 3.6 % 3.0 % 3.3 % 3.4 %

Source: IEA, ABG Sundal Collier

Consensus estimates are based on average estimates from IEA, OPEC, EIA, and FGE (Facts Global Energy – an independent consulting firm). For 2019, consensus estimates a negative call-on-OPEC of 1.00 mb/d, and for 2020, it estimates a negative call-on-OPEC of 1.02 mb/d. For 2020 ABGSC estimate somewhat higher global demand growth of 1.32mb/d vs. consensus at 1.21mb/d driven by higher OECD demand estimates. Further, we estimate lower non-OPEC production of 2.14mb/d vs. consensus at 2.23mb/d with lower expectations to US production as the main difference. Our 2020 call-on-OPEC estimate of negative 0.82mb/d is somewhat less negative than consensus.

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 14

Oil & Oil Services

Oil market estimates Oil market forecasts 2019e Oil market forecasts 2020e y-o-y change in demand (mill. b/d), 2019e y-o-y change in demand (mill. b/d), 2020e Average/ Average/ IEA OPEC EIA FGE consensus ABGSC IEA OPEC EIA FGE consensus ABGSC Demand: Demand: North America 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.02 0.10 0.13 North America 0.13 0.18 0.17 0.12 0.15 0.21 Western Europe -0.06 0.00 -0.06 0.06 -0.02 -0.03 Western Europe 0.09 -0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.07 OECD Pacific -0.14 -0.09 -0.25 -0.18 -0.17 -0.14 OECD Pacific 0.06 -0.08 0.00 -0.11 -0.03 0.03 Total OECD -0.07 0.03 -0.18 -0.10 -0.08 -0.04 Total OECD 0.28 0.07 0.20 0.03 0.15 0.31

China 0.63 0.35 0.49 0.80 0.57 0.58 China 0.41 0.31 0.53 0.40 0.41 0.53 FSU 0.14 0.09 0.09 -0.07 0.06 0.15 FSU 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.02 Middle East -0.03 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.07 -0.03 Middle East -0.04 0.07 0.05 0.18 0.06 0.03 India 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.12 0.15 India 0.18 0.16 0.20 0.17 0.18 0.13 "Other non-OECD" 0.15 0.33 0.10 0.18 0.19 0.17 "Other non-OECD" 0.30 0.39 0.35 0.23 0.32 0.31 Total non-OECD 1.03 0.95 0.91 1.12 1.00 1.01 Total non-OECD 0.93 1.01 1.23 1.08 1.06 1.02

Global demand 0.96 0.98 0.75 1.02 0.93 0.98 Global demand 1.22 1.08 1.42 1.11 1.21 1.32

y-o-y change in production (mill. b/d), 2019e y-o-y change in production (mill. b/d), 2020e Average/ Average/ IEA OPEC EIA FGE consensus ABGSC IEA OPEC EIA FGE consensus ABGSC Supply: Supply: US 1.60 1.62 1.68 1.76 1.67 1.64 US 1.12 1.50 1.59 1.41 1.41 1.27 Canada&Mexico -0.03 -0.05 -0.06 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 Canada&Mexico 0.22 -0.02 0.07 -0.06 0.05 0.09 Western Europe -0.14 -0.11 -0.07 -0.11 -0.11 -0.12 Western Europe 0.42 0.19 0.36 0.31 0.32 0.36 OECD Pacific 0.09 0.07 0.00 n.m. 0.05 0.09 OECD Pacific 0.10 0.07 -0.01 n.m. 0.05 0.08 China 0.07 0.09 0.14 0.06 0.09 0.07 China -0.01 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.03 0.00 FSU 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.05 FSU -0.02 0.09 -0.08 -0.04 -0.01 0.01 Other non-OPEC 0.24 0.14 0.32 0.20 0.23 0.20 Other non-OPEC 0.29 0.32 0.37 0.58 0.39 0.32 Total non-OPEC 1.89 1.82 2.07 1.94 1.93 1.90 Total non-OPEC 2.12 2.17 2.33 2.28 2.23 2.14

Call on OPEC -0.93 -0.84 -1.32 -0.92 -1.00 -0.92 Call on OPEC -0.90 -1.09 -0.91 -1.17 -1.02 -0.82

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, OPEC, IEA, FGE, EIA

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 15

Oil & Oil Services

Key oil market estimates – annual figures (million barrels/day)

Oil demand (mill. b/d) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e OECD US 19.1 19.5 19.3 18.8 19.3 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.5 20.7 20.9 Other America (Canada, Mexico, Chile) 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 Americas 23.7 24.3 24.1 23.7 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.0 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 Europe 14.8 14.7 14.3 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.3 14.4 Asia Oceania 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.9 Total OECD 46.3 46.9 46.5 46.0 46.1 45.8 46.5 47.0 47.3 47.8 47.8 48.1 48.3 y-o-y (%) -4.1 % 1.3 % -1.0 % -1.1 % 0.2 % -0.6 % 1.6 % 1.0 % 0.8 % 1.1 % -0.1 % 0.6 % 0.5 %

Non-OECD FSU 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 Europe 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 China 8.0 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.4 10.8 11.6 12.0 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 India 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 Other Asia 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.1 7.5 8.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.7 Latin-America 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 Middle East 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.4 Africa 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Total Non-OECD 39.1 41.5 42.9 44.6 46.3 47.9 48.5 49.2 50.8 51.5 52.5 53.5 54.6 y-o-y (%) 2.6 % 6.1 % 3.3 % 3.9 % 3.8 % 3.4 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 3.2 % 1.4 % 2.0 % 1.9 % 2.2 %

TOTAL DEMAND 85.5 88.4 89.3 90.5 92.3 93.7 95.0 96.2 98.1 99.3 100.3 101.6 103.0 y-o-y (%) -1.1 % 3.5 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 2.0 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.2 % 2.0 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.4 %

Oil supply (mill. b/d) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e NON-OPEC US 7.4 7.8 8.1 9.1 10.3 12.0 13.0 12.5 13.2 15.5 17.2 18.5 19.5 Mexico 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 Canada 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 North America 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.8 17.2 19.1 20.0 19.5 20.3 23.0 24.6 26.0 26.9 Europe 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.9 Pacific 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 Total OECD 18.8 18.8 18.9 19.8 21.0 22.9 23.9 23.4 24.2 26.9 28.5 30.3 31.4 FSU 13.2 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 China 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 Brazil 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 Other non-OECD 12.0 12.7 12.8 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.7 Processing Gains 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 Total Non-OPEC 51.8 53.3 53.5 54.3 56.0 58.3 59.8 59.1 59.8 63.0 64.9 67.0 68.2 y-o-y (%) 1.5 % 2.8 % 0.5 % 1.4 % 3.1 % 4.2 % 2.4 % -1.1 % 1.2 % 5.3 % 3.0 % 3.3 % 1.7 %

OPEC Saudi Arabia 7.9 7.9 9.1 9.5 9.4 9.5 10.1 10.4 10.0 10.3 9.9 9.9 9.9 UAE 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 Venezuela 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 Kuwait 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 Angola 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 Nigeria 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 Libya 1.6 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Algeria 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Ecuador 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 OPEC 9 21.7 21.8 22.1 24.0 23.3 23.0 23.9 23.8 23.2 23.1 22.2 22.1 22.0 Iraq 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 Iran 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.8 3.6 2.4 2.0 2.0 OPEC 11 27.9 27.9 28.4 29.9 29.1 29.2 30.7 31.8 31.4 31.3 29.3 28.8 28.8 Gabon 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Other OPEC 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total OPEC crude 29.1 29.2 29.8 31.3 30.3 30.2 31.4 32.4 32.0 31.9 30.0 29.4 29.4 NGLs 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 Total OPEC 33.6 33.8 34.6 36.3 35.3 35.3 36.7 37.9 37.6 37.4 35.5 35.0 35.0

TOTAL SUPPLY 85.4 87.1 88.1 90.6 91.3 93.7 96.5 96.9 97.4 100.4 100.4 102.0 103.2

Key figures 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Call on OPEC crude 29.2 30.5 31.0 31.2 31.4 30.2 30.0 31.6 32.7 30.8 29.9 29.0 29.2 OPEC crude production 29.1 29.2 29.8 31.3 30.3 30.2 31.4 32.4 32.0 31.9 30.0 29.4 29.4 = Implied stock change -0.1 -1.3 -1.2 0.0 -1.1 0.0 1.5 0.7 -0.7 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.2

Change in OECD Industry Stocks (mb/d) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.8 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 Implicit change in other stocks (mb/d) -0.1 -1.3 -1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -0.3 0.7 0.7 -0.2 1.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 OECD Industry Stocks (mill. barrels) 2,662 2,677 2,608 2,664 2,589 2,706 2,989 3,007 2,860 2,870 2,940 3,014 3,048 OECD Inventory Days (industry) 56.7 57.6 56.7 57.9 56.5 58.2 63.6 63.5 59.8 60.0 61.1 62.4 62.8

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IEA

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 16

Oil & Oil Services

Oil market estimates – annual figures (y-o-y growth, million barrels/day) y-o-y growth Growth y-o-y (mill. barrels/day) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e OECD US -0.7 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 Other America (Canada, Mexico, Chile) -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Americas -0.9 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 Europe -0.7 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 Asia Oceania -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Total OECD -2.0 0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 y-o-y (%) -4.1 % 1.3 % -1.0 % -1.1 % 0.2 % -0.6 % 1.6 % 1.0 % 0.8 % 1.1 % -0.1 % 0.6 % 0.5 %

Non-OECD FSU -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 China 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 India 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 Other Asia 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.6 0.4 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Latin America 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Middle East 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Africa 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total Non-OECD 1.0 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 y-o-y (%) 2.6 % 6.1 % 3.3 % 3.9 % 3.8 % 3.4 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 3.2 % 1.4 % 2.0 % 1.9 % 2.2 %

TOTAL DEMAND -1.0 3.0 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.4 y-o-y (%) -1.1 % 3.5 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 2.0 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.2 % 2.0 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.4 % y-o-y growth Oil supply (mill. b/d) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e NON-OPEC US 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.0 -0.5 0.7 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.0 Mexico -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 Canada 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 North America 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.9 0.9 -0.5 0.8 2.7 1.6 1.4 1.0 Europe -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.2 Pacific 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total OECD 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.0 -0.5 0.8 2.7 1.6 1.8 1.1 FSU 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 China 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Brazil 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 Other non-OECD 0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 Processing Gains 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Non-OPEC 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 1.4 -0.7 0.7 3.2 1.9 2.1 1.1 y-o-y (%) 1.5 % 2.8 % 0.5 % 1.4 % 3.1 % 4.2 % 2.4 % -1.1 % 1.2 % 5.3 % 3.0 % 3.3 % 1.7 %

OPEC Saudi Arabia -1.0 0.0 1.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 UAE -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 Venezuela -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 Kuwait -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Angola -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 Nigeria -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 Libya -0.2 0.0 -1.1 0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Algeria -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ecuador 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 OPEC 9 -2.2 0.1 0.3 1.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 0.0 -0.7 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 Iraq 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 Iran -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.3 -0.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.0 OPEC 11 -2.3 0.0 0.5 1.5 -0.8 0.0 1.6 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.0 Gabon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other OPEC -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total OPEC crude -2.5 0.0 0.8 1.1 -1.1 0.3 1.9 2.1 0.0 -0.2 -3.0 -1.0 0.1 NGLs 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total OPEC -1.9 0.3 0.7 1.7 -1.0 0.1 1.4 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.0

TOTAL SUPPLY -1.2 1.7 1.0 2.5 0.7 2.4 2.8 0.5 0.5 3.0 0.0 1.6 1.2

Key figures 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Call on OPEC crude -2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 -1.2 -0.2 1.6 1.1 -1.9 -1.0 -0.9 0.2 OPEC crude production -2.4 0.1 0.6 1.5 -0.9 -0.1 1.2 0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -1.9 -0.6 0.0

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IEA

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 17

Oil & Oil Services

E&P spending Quite moderate increase in offshore capex In this report, we make no changes to our oil price or E&P spending forecasts. In general, we see moderately higher offshore investments in the coming years, but with growth rates well below those observed in previous upcyles. Our main E&P estimates appear below.

E&P spending assumptions

Key assumptions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Oil Price 72 97 62 80 111 112 109 99 53 44 54 71 64 65 65 NOK/USD 5.9 5.6 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.9 5.8 6.2 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.8 9.0 9.0

E&P spending growth: Global 16% 27% -15% 13% 15% 11% 7% 4% -22% -29% 4% 11% 1% 4% 8% Onshore 19% 30% -14% 17% 15% 8% 5% 6% -23% -31% 15% 16% 0% 4% 8% US Onshore 13% 8% -28% 61% 29% 15% 2% 5% -35% -50% 45% 25% -10% 3% 10% Offshore 12% 22% -17% 6% 15% 15% 12% 2% -20% -25% -12% 0% 3% 5% 7%

E&P spending (USDbn): Global 430 546 464 522 600 666 713 745 582 414 432 479 483 504 543 Onshore 260 338 292 342 393 425 445 472 363 251 288 334 334 348 376 US Onshore 126 137 99 159 206 236 240 253 164 82 119 149 134 138 152 Offshore 166 203 169 180 207 238 268 273 218 164 144 144 148 156 167

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

The majority of the large oil companies have yet to guide on 2020 capex. Within the Limited 2020 capex guidance from group we track below, the few that have provided guidance have signaled slightly the larger companies yet higher investments, while a significant reduction from OXY pulls the y-o-y growth down by ~2%. Company capex guidance Capex guidance Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 (USDbn) 2017 2018 2019e 2019e 2019e 2019e 2019e 2020e 2020e 2020e 2020e 2020e '19 vs '18 '20 vs '19 Equinor 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.0 10.5 10.5 10.5 6.1% BP 16.5 15.1 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.5 15.5 2.6% Total 16.0 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 16.0 16.0 -0.6% 3.2% Shell&BG 24.0 23.0 26.5 26.5 26.5 25.5 25.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 10.9% 3.9% ENI 9.4 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 -0.6% ConocoPhillips 4.6 6.8 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 6.9 -6.7% 9.5% Repsol&Talisman 2.6 3.7 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.2 13.3% Chevron 18.8 20.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 20.0 20.0 -0.5% 0.0% Exxon 23.1 25.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 15.7% 13.3% Occidental 3.6 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 9.0 9.0 5.4 5.4 -40.0% Anadarko 4.3 4.8 4.5 4.5 -6.9% Murphy 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 17.6% Noble Energy 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 -23.5% -8.7% Devon Energy 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 -20.3% Lundin 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 4.5% Marathon Oil 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 5.0% Petrobras 13.3 13.4 13.8 13.8 10.5 10.5 10.5 -21.9% Apache O&G 2.6 3.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 -22.6% CNOOC 8.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 19.8% WPX Energy 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 -21.4% Husky 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 -5.0% -2.9% Tullow 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 27.7% OMV 1.3 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 21.1% W. average 169.9 183.4 4.7% 2.0%

Source: Company data, ABG Sundal Collier

Looking at the consensus expectations among analysts covering the largest listed oil companies, total investments are expected up 5%/4% in ‘20/’21.

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 18

Oil & Oil Services

Analysts covering the large oil Consensus capex estimates – Large Oil CAPEX companies expect moderate capex (USDm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e growth in the coming years FactSet FactSet FactSet Exxon 32,952 26,490 16,163 15,402 19,574 26,105 28,449 28,308 Chevron 35,407 29,504 18,109 13,404 13,792 14,566 15,470 16,176 ConocoPhillips 17,085 10,050 4,869 4,591 6,750 6,570 6,439 6,542 BP 22,546 18,648 16,701 16,562 16,707 15,683 15,634 16,498 Shell 31,676 26,131 22,116 20,845 23,011 24,120 25,247 27,627 Total 22,878 22,509 16,644 12,731 13,364 14,891 15,345 15,781 Occidental 8,930 5,272 2,717 3,599 4,975 6,204 6,179 6,945 Anadarko 9,913 6,183 3,378 5,061 6,399 Repsol 3,481 13,275 3,146 2,961 4,092 3,911 4,654 4,462 Eni 16,237 12,821 10,152 9,781 10,762 8,684 8,993 9,257 Equinor 19,944 14,700 10,100 9,400 9,900 10,608 11,219 11,288 Total 221,049 185,583 124,095 114,338 129,326 131,341 137,628 142,884 QoQ YoY -16.0% -33.1% -7.9% 13.1% 1.6% 4.8% 3.8%

Source: FactSet

Following the oil price recovery in 2016, oil companies allocated the initial incremental capex towards shorter cycle US onshore in 2017 and 2018. However, in 2019, overall US onshore capex was down ~8% while offshore spending was close to flat, as the relative break-even levels narrowed after massive offshore cost cutting. Following disappointing financial returns and FCF generation, investors in US onshore-focussed E&Ps also started to show increasing capital discipline, much like what we observed among oil majors in 2014. In 2020, we see potential for slightly growing US onshore capex of ~3%. Consensus expectations among analysts covering the largest listed US onshore-focussed E&Ps are expecting 6%/4% increase in capex in ’20/’21, respectively.

US onshore capex was down in ’19 Consensus capex estimates – US onshore focussed CAPEX and a slight recovery is expected in (USDm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e FactSet FactSet ‘20e EOG 8,083 5,513 2,528 4,124 6,226 6,300 6,762 7,302 Devon 6,988 5,308 2,330 2,759 2,451 1,991 1,931 1,961 Pioneer 3,576 2,393 2,060 2,701 3,520 3,075 3,332 3,572 Range 1,212 1,035 469 1,154 910 736 632 600 SM Energy 1,975 1,494 630 888 1,303 1,025 937 896 Cimarex 2,108 979 700 1,233 1,570 1,350 1,392 1,422 Continental 4,604 3,043 1,154 1,932 2,800 2,600 2,751 2,941 Whiting 2,968 2,497 550 857 832 820 766 759 Concho Resources 2,555 2,444 2,397 2,489 2,632 2,900 2,857 2,973 PDC Energy 629 605 887 732 935 825 1,179 1,154 Callon 233 260 190 420 611 610 1,239 1,243 Oasis 1,573 610 427 659 1,148 847 772 760 Total 36,504 26,179 14,322 19,948 24,939 23,079 24,549 25,583 QoQ YoY -28.3% -45.3% 39.3% 25.0% -7.5% 6.4% 4.2%

Source: FactSet

When looking at the revenue growth expected in offshore focussed oil service companies, we observe an expected 5%/8% growth expectation for ‘20/’21e, and it hence appears like our E&P spending assumptions are quite close to the consensus oil service estimates on an aggregated level.

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 19

Oil & Oil Services

E&P company overview Oil price is at a good place In general, we find that a Brent oil price around USD 65/bbl provides a good operating environment for most oil companies.  Following the portfolio optimization and high M&A activity over the last five years, we expect to see that enhanced recovery combined with field of life extensions will be high on the agenda.  The year 2020 is also likely to be one of high exploration activity as the oil companies seek to add resources to the resource hopper.

NCS exploration wells were up 8% y-o-y in 2019, wildcats up 54%

70 65 120 59 60 56 5756 57 52 53 100 49 50 50 47 47 50 45 43 42 80 39 40 36 3636 36 36 3636 40 34 32 30 28 2928 60 26 27 26 26 30 24 22 23 22 22 20 21 18 19 19 40 1716 17 20 14 1213 12 10 6 20 2

0 0

1966 1967 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2019 1968 1969 1975 1976 1982 1983 1989 1990 1996 1997 2003 2004 2010 2011 2017 2018

Wildcat Appraisal Brent

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, NPD

 ESG was a key topic in 2019, illustrated by the strong performance of the Nordics ESG stocks.

Nordic ESG stocks outperformed in 2019 300

250

200

150

100

OSEBX Nordic ESG (local currency)

Jun 15 Jun

Jun 16 Jun

Jun 17 Jun

Jun 18 Jun

Jun 19 Jun

Dec 14 Dec

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Dec 18 Dec Dec 19 Dec

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Macrobond

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 20

Oil & Oil Services

For oil companies, the ESG theme has two effects:  Several large oil companies are looking to diversify beyond oil, through investing in renewable energy such as (offshore) wind.  Increased investor concern of a finite life for oil has caused a push for high cash distribution. Given oil companies’ solid cash flows at the USD 65 oil price, we find that oil companies are in a unique position to pay high dividends, lower debt levels and in addition hike capex.

Positive cash flow for large oil companies… …has allowed increased capex and dividends 100 50% 40% 80 30% 60 20% 40 10%

USDbn 20 0% Y/Ygrowth -10% 0 -20% -20 -30%

-40 -40%

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Q2'19 Q3'19 Operating cash flow FCF before dividends FCF after dividends Organic investmentes Dividends

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

In order to be attractive to investors, cash distributions are of high importance, while SOTP valuations appear to receive lesser attention. Therefore, we primarily favour dividend-yielding companies not priced at extreme premiums to the NAV, such as Aker BP and Equinor; further, the P/NAV discount in Noreco is too high to disregard.

Performance (in USD) of international companies not under our coverage M.cap. EV Performance (in USD and including dividend) P/E P/B Dividend yield Free cash flow yield EV/DACF EV/reserves (1P) Ticker (USDm) (USDm) YTD 1y 3y 5y 2019e 2020e 2019e 2020e 2019e 2020e 2019e 2020e 2019e 2020e USD/boe Large caps / Exxon XOM-US 292,920 347,650 -1% 1% -11% -8% 27.3 x 18.7 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 5.0% 5.2% 1.7% 3.5% 10.5 x 9.1 x 17.4 Equinor peers Chevron CVX-US 222,555 248,397 -2% 10% 12% 27% 18.5 x 16.9 x 1.4 x 1.4 x 4.1% 4.3% 6.0% 6.5% 7.6 x 7.4 x 22.3 Conoco COP-US 71,257 78,885 0% 3% 35% 12% 17.7 x 19.0 x 2.1 x 2.1 x 2.1% 2.5% 7.8% 6.0% 7.4 x 7.5 x 12.3 BP BP-GB 130,814 188,607 4% 4% 21% 38% 13.4 x 12.1 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 6.2% 6.4% 7.4% 10.4% 5.8 x 5.6 x 10.6 Shell RDSB-GB 235,499 312,970 1% 5% 23% 18% 13.4 x 11.1 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 6.3% 6.4% 9.1% 10.4% 6.5 x 5.8 x 24.0 Total FP-FR 141,494 175,132 2% 9% 25% 39% 12.5 x 10.8 x 1.2 x 1.2 x 5.4% 5.7% 6.6% 8.3% 6.3 x 5.8 x 15.2 Occidental OXY-US 40,181 98,327 9% -26% -24% -22% 23.5 x 51.5 x 1.3 x 1.5 x 6.9% 7.1% 3.4% 10.7% 9.8 x 7.4 x 40.9 Repsol REP-ES 22,471 36,421 2% 1% 27% 11% 9.6 x 7.7 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 6.8% 7.0% 9.1% 8.7% 5.1 x 4.8 x 15.3 Eni ENI-IT 56,629 77,108 2% 4% 11% 23% 14.8 x 11.9 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 6.0% 6.2% 7.3% 9.4% 5.6 x 5.2 x 10.3 Equinor EQNR-NO 68,945 83,696 4% -4% 24% 47% 13.7 x 11.8 x 1.7 x 1.6 x 5.1% 5.4% 6.0% 7.9% 5.4 x 5.2 x 16.7 Average 2% 1% 14% 18% 17.0 x 17.1 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 5.4% 5.6% 6.5% 8.2% 7.0 x 6.4 x 18.5 Median 2% 3% 22% 20% 14.2 x 12.0 x 1.3 x 1.4 x 5.7% 5.9% 7.0% 8.5% 6.4 x 5.8 x 16.0

Medium caps Tullow Oil TLW-GB 1,064 5,495 -11% -67% -76% -84% 5.1 x 8.1 x 0.4 x 0.3 x 4.8% 1.2% 37.3% 35.4% 3.3 x 3.8 x n.a. Noble Corp. NE-US 324 4,283 7% -61% -82% -82% na na 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.4% na -66.9% -35.9% 17.0 x 13.1 x 3.0 Murphy Oil MUR-US 4,259 7,527 1% 6% -4% -33% 26.1 x 36.2 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 2.0% 4.6 x 4.0 x 9.7 Marathon Oil MRO-US 10,623 15,192 -2% -13% -22% -47% 16.9 x 30.7 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 1.5% 1.5% 2.7% 5.2% 4.5 x 4.7 x 7.0 Hess Corporation HES-US 20,878 27,698 3% 43% 16% 3% na 225.4 x 2.2 x 2.3 x 1.5% 1.5% -4.1% -3.3% 11.0 x 9.6 x 25.5 Apache Corp. APA-US 12,308 22,964 28% 15% -43% -38% na 350.5 x 2.0 x 2.1 x 3.1% 3.1% -1.6% 4.2% 5.9 x 6.0 x 14.7 Lundin Petroleum LUPE-SE 9,701 13,636 1% 29% 76% 185% 36.0 x 15.6 x 4.1% 5.4% 8.5% 11.7% 14.2 x 8.7 x n.a. AKER BP AKERBP-NO 11,998 15,274 2% 20% 104% 628% 72.3 x 17.5 x 4.9 x 5.3 x 6.4% 7.2% -3.4% 6.0% 10.7 x 7.7 x 25.3 Average 3% -3% -4% 67% 31.3 x 97.7 x 1.6 x 1.7 x 3.2% 3.4% -3.0% 3.2% 8.9 x 7.2 x 14.2 Median 1% 10% -13% -35% 26.1 x 30.7 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 3.4% 3.1% 0.6% 4.7% 8.3 x 6.9 x 12.2

Shale plays EOG EOG-US 50,811 55,152 4% -8% -15% 5% 18.2 x 17.3 x 2.3 x 2.1 x 1.2% 1.5% 2.8% 2.8% 7.6 x 6.9 x 26.0 Devon DVN-US 9,888 12,790 -2% 1% -46% -53% 17.8 x 15.5 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 1.4% 1.5% 4.4% 5.8% 4.1 x 5.2 x 5.9 Pioneer PXD-US 25,192 27,005 0% 8% -17% 9% 19.4 x 16.9 x 2.1 x 2.0 x 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 2.4% 7.4 x 7.3 x 40.6 Range RRC-US 1,147 4,333 -6% -58% -86% -90% 14.5 x 694.6 x 0.3 x 0.3 x 1.8% 1.8% -3.3% 3.8% 4.9 x 5.3 x 2.6 SM Energy SM-US 1,326 4,109 5% -34% -66% -66% na na 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.6% 0.6% -17.4% -2.0% 4.2 x 3.9 x 8.7 Cimarex XEC-US 5,478 7,815 3% -19% -60% -44% 12.9 x 10.1 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 1.5% 1.5% -1.8% 3.9% 5.4 x 4.9 x n.a. Continental CLR-US 12,695 18,586 0% -27% -34% -3% 15.6 x 14.7 x 1.9 x 1.7 x 0.2% 0.6% 2.6% 4.9% 5.8 x 5.4 x 15.2 Whiting WLL-US 680 3,605 1% -73% -85% -94% na na 0.2 x 0.2 x -7.1% 11.2% 3.4 x 3.2 x 4.4 Oasis OAS-US 1,089 4,093 4% -47% -78% -77% na na 0.3 x 0.3 x -3.6% -3.7% 3.9 x 4.4 x 18.8 Average 1% -28% -54% -46% n.m. 128.2 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 1.0% 1.2% -2.5% 3.2% 5.2 x 5.2 x 15.3 Median 1% -27% -60% -53% 16.7 x 16.2 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 1.0% 1.3% -1.8% 3.8% 4.9 x 5.2 x 11.9

Other LukOil OAO LKOH-RU 68,852 71,655 5% 36% 116% 196% 7.0 x 7.3 x 1.1 x 1.0 x 6.5% 10.6% 12.3% 11.1% 4.4 x 4.4 x 4.3 Gazprom OAO GAZP-RU 98,299 153,396 0% 72% 87% 107% 4.9 x 5.5 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 5.5% 6.9% 2.2% 2.4% 5.4 x 5.2 x 1.2 Rosneft ROSN-RU 77,763 134,928 1% 13% 30% 146% 6.6 x 6.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 7.1% 8.4% 11.5% 12.8% 5.2 x 5.1 x 3.3 Average - Russian companies 2% 40% 78% 150% 6.2 x 6.3 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 6.4% 8.6% 8.7% 8.7% 5.0 x 4.9 x 3.0 PetroChina Co. PTR-US 10,923 108,426 3% -16% -26% -47% 12.8 x 11.7 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 4.0% 4.3% -0.4% 0.6% 5.0 x 4.9 x 5.1 CNOOC Limited CEO-US 77,160 72,126 4% 12% 51% 50% 9.6 x 9.2 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 5.0% 5.3% 6.2% 6.5% 5.9 x 5.6 x 16.7 Sinopec 338-HK 3,243 1,474 -1% -26% -26% 43% 9.9 x 9.2 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 5.3% 5.8% -3.6% 3.9% 9.4 x 8.5 x 0.4 Average - Chinese oil companies 2% -10% 0% 15% 10.8 x 10.0 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 4.8% 5.1% 0.8% 3.7% 6.8 x 6.4 x 7.4 Petrobras PETR4-BR 97,721 173,962 1% 26% 107% 252% 9.9 x 9.6 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 4.2% 2.8% 12.2% 14.4% 6.0 x 5.5 x 16.5

Source: FactSet, ABG Sundal Collier *Equinor, Lundin and Aker BP covered by ABG Sundal Collier although FactSet estimates are used here

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 21

Aker BP

Aker BP Reason: Preview of results Let it flow, let it flow, let it flow

 Q4e EBITDA of USD 763m, in line with cons

 Likely positive news flow ahead Estimate changes (%)  A top pick in the oil and oil service space 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -1.6% 0.8% 0.2% Good start for Johan Sverdrup EBIT (rep) -3.2% 1.0% 2.0% We estimate that Aker BP will report Q4 production of 188kboe/d, EPS (rep) -5.5% 0.8% 5.2% implying full-year production of 154kboe/d, in line with full-year guidance Source: ABG Sundal Collier of ~155kboe/d. Q-o-q improvement relates to the start-up on Johan Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 291.0 Sverdrup +27kboe/d and production on Valhall +10kboe/d (Flank West start-up and ramp-up after maintenance that affected Q2-Q3 volumes). Target price (335.0) 360.0 We estimate Q4 EBITDA of USD 763m, 1% above FactSet consensus at USD 755m. Furthermore, we estimate good FCF in Q4 of USD 141m, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Norway ahead of cons at USD 82m. AKERBP.NO/AKERBP NO

Likely positive news flow ahead MCap (NOKm) 104,740 With both Aker BP and its key peers LUPE and EQNR hosting MCap (EURm) 10,620.7 CMD/CMUs in conjunction with the Q4 numbers we expect positive news Net debt (EURm) 2,775 flow ahead. We believe that we will see positive reserve revisions and potential further cost reductions for Johan Sverdrup, following the No. of shares (m) 360 indications of very good flow from the pre-drilled wells. Furthermore, we Free float (%) 30.0 expect another active exploration year for Aker BP, following a 2019 of Av. daily volume (k) na more than 200mill boe. We estimated NOK 15/sh in NAV contribution for 2019. We also find it likely that there will be a solution to the Aker Next event Q4 report: 06 Feb BP/Equinor NOAKA situation, where a full de-risking would add NOK 19/sh to our Aker BP NAV. Performance

240 A top pick in the oil and oil service space 220 We reiterate our positive view on Aker BP. Our USD 65/bbl NAV YE’20 200 180 points to NOK 279/sh, but Aker BP has historically traded at an implied 160 oil price 1.2x the spot price, motivating our increased target price of NOK 140 120 360 (335). In addition to the NAV support, we find the 7.4% dividend 100 yield for ’20e attractive. Our NOK 360/sh target price implies a dividend 80

yield of ~6%, a minor premium to the cash dividend yield for large oil 60

Jul 17 Jul

Jul 18 Jul

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Nov 19 Nov

May 17 May May 18 May companies that average 5.6%. We reiterate BUY. The Q4 report is due 19 May on 6 February. Aker BP OSE GI

1m 3m 12m Lead analyst: [email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65 Absolute (%) 11.7 20.2 13.9 [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 66.4 16.1 13.4 Sales 2,563 3,750 3,404 4,937 5,729 P/E adj (x) 36.3 16.1 13.4 EBITDA 1,786 2,748 2,304 3,730 4,511 P/BVPS (x) 4.90 5.16 5.32 EBITDA margin (%) 69.7 73.3 67.7 75.6 78.7 EBIT adj 1,007 1,996 1,488 2,873 3,514 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.4 4.0 3.3 EBIT adj margin (%) 39.3 53.2 43.7 58.2 61.3 EV/EBIT adj (x) 10.0 5.2 4.3 Pretax profit 811 1,805 1,186 2,671 3,276 EV/sales (x) 4.37 3.03 2.61 EPS rep 0.80 1.32 0.49 2.03 2.45 ROE adj (%) 12.0 31.1 39.2 EPS adj 0.95 1.38 0.90 2.03 2.45 Dividend yield (%) 6.6 7.4 8.3 FCF yield (%) -1.2 6.3 8.0 Sales growth (%) 87.9 46.3 -9.2 45.0 16.0 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -1.2 6.3 8.0 EPS growth (%) 673.2 65.3 -62.7 311.1 20.8 Net IB debt/EBITDA 1.3 0.9 0.7 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 1.3 0.9 0.7

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 22

Aker BP

Key estimates AKER BP (FactSet) (FactSet) Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement % Net sales 886 836 785 723 1,059 1,156 1,003 6% 3,750 3,404 4,937 5,729 4,647 5,108 EBITDAX 692 629 583 550 861 952 n.m. 3,044 2,623 4,105 4,808 EBITDA 619 539 522 480 763 859 755 1% 2,748 2,304 3,730 4,511 3,638 4,126 EBITDA margins 70% 64% 67% 66% 72% 74% 75% 73% 68% 76% 79% EBIT 403 287 354 196 573 659 498 15% 1,975 1,410 2,873 3,514 2,533 2,980 EBIT margins 46% 34% 45% 27% 54% 57% 50% 53% 41% 58% 61% PTP 359 249 268 143 526 609 466 13% 1,805 1,186 2,671 3,276 2,345 2,789 Net profit 54 10 62 -43 148 167 140 476 178 730 882 660 769 EPS (USD) 0.15 0.03 0.17 -0.12 0.41 0.47 0.36 1.32 0.49 2.03 2.45 1.89 2.15 DPS (USD) 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.59 0.59 0.54 9% 1.46 2.15 2.43 2.71 2.38 2.65

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 2,018 2,226 2,635 2,940 3,020 3,020 2,018 3,020 3,352 4,502 Gross cash 45 114 102 5 39 183 45 39 267 1,411 NIBD 1,973 2,112 2,533 2,934 2,981 2,837 1,973 2,981 3,085 3,091 Lease obligations 0 369 375 341 341 341 0 341 341 341 NIBD incl. lease 1,973 2,480 2,907 3,276 3,322 3,178 3,277 1% 1,973 3,322 3,426 3,433 3,259 3,748 NIBD/share (NOK) 46 50 61 72 75 71 44 73 74 73 NIBD incl lease/share (NOK) 46 59 70 81 84 79 44 81 82 81 Book equity 2,990 2,799 2,664 2,444 2,404 2,359 2,990 2,404 2,284 2,216 Book equity/share (NOK) 70 67 64 60 61 59 67 59 55 52

Operating cash flow 1,889 591 387 382 605 840 573 3,800 1,965 2,963 2,803 Free cash flow 979 79 -154 -202 141 357 82 1,652 -136 745 944 Free cash flow /share (NOK) 23.0 1.9 -3.7 -5.0 3.6 8.9 37.3 -3.3 17.9 22.3

Other key figures and assumptions Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Brent 69.0 63.3 69.3 62.0 63.2 65 71 64 65 65 NOK/USD 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.0 8.1 8.8 8.6 8.5 EPS (NOK) 1.3 0.2 1.5 -1.1 3.8 4.2 10.7 4.3 17.5 20.8

Field-by-field production (boe/d): Johan Sverdrup Johan Sverdrup 0 0 0 0 26,966 40,507 0 6,741 47,161 50,923 Alvheim area Alvheim 43,406 43,478 39,943 36,826 39,671 40,211 40,834 39,985 39,975 33,930 Volund 9,655 7,757 8,518 10,088 6,441 6,119 11,857 8,201 5,893 5,304 Vilje 3,257 3,756 2,300 0 3,220 2,963 4,040 2,319 2,626 2,363 Bøyla 2,039 1,829 2,364 4,490 1,664 1,497 2,916 2,587 1,287 850 Valhall Valhall 38,816 45,156 23,896 39,403 49,500 57,600 35,027 39,489 58,950 74,277 Hod 802 677 618 880 810 818 938 746 830 702 Skarv Skarv 23,454 22,558 22,657 21,717 21,358 20,718 25,360 22,073 20,996 26,457 Ivar Aasen Ivar Aasen 23,343 22,539 19,069 22,481 22,611 22,611 23,529 21,675 22,611 18,541 Ula area Ula 5,784 6,185 2,811 4,751 5,821 6,505 6,032 4,892 6,312 6,123 Oda 0 102 1,949 1,280 3,750 4,567 0 1,770 4,567 4,189 Tambar 2,572 1,916 1,455 2,531 2,970 2,970 3,397 2,218 2,970 2,970 Other Gina Krog 2,300 2,500 1,720 1,700 2,970 2,970 1,743 2,223 2,970 2,376 Other 300 300 0 0 0 0 124 0 0 0 Non-sanctioned 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,125 32,524 NOAKA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total production 155,728 158,753 127,300 146,147 187,752 210,054 184,022 2.0% 155,795 154,918 223,274 261,528 217,506 235,486 Of w hich is gas 20% 20% 20% 21% 18% 17% 21% 20% 17% 17% Over/underlift 3,247 13,400 -2,847 8,155 0 5,489 0 0

Other key figures: Unit production costs/boe (USD) -13.0 -13.5 -15.4 -13.2 -10.7 -10.4 -12.1 -13.1 -9.9 -9.4 Depreciation cost/boe (USD) -13.7 -12.6 -14.5 -15.3 -11.0 -10.5 -13.2 -12.9 -10.5 -10.4 Capex (USDm) -417 -364 -414 -435 -328 -313 -1,315 -1,541 -1,500 -1,254 Decommissioning (USDm) -14 -21 -40 -35 -6 -45 -240 -101 -218 -180 Exploration spending (USDm) -84 -157 -119 -144 -130 -125 -359 -550 -500 -425 Of w hich capitalised 14% 42% 49% 51% 25% 25% 18% 42% 25% 30% Reported tax rate 85% 96% 77% 130% 72% 73% 74% 85% 73% 73%

2019 guidance 2019 production: ~155'boe/d (old: 155'-160'boe/d) 2019 unit production costs: USD 12.5/boe 2019 capex: USD ~1,600-1,700m 2019 decommissioning expenditures: USD ~100m 2019 exploration spending: USD ~550m 2019 dividend: USD 750m/yr proposed, ambitions to grow by USD 100m/yr to 2023

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, FactSet

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 23

Extract of report published on 6 January

DNO Reason: Recommendation change A road filled with potholes

 US-Iraq tension following removal of Soleimani

 Q4 likely good q-o-q improvement Estimate changes (%)  Too much uncertainty now, down to HOLD (Buy) 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -0.9% 0.3% 1.6% Regional unrest puts uncertainty in long-term estimate EBIT (rep) -7.4% 3.4% -4.4% Following the recent US removal of Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, US-Iran EPS (rep) -5.4% 3.6% -13.2% tension has also played into the US-Iraq relationship. Scenarios such as Source: ABG Sundal Collier US sanctions on Iraq, a forced extraction of key operating personnel Share price (NOK) 06/01/2020 10.0 and/or further military escalation is now higher. Our latest discussions with DNO’s management indicate that operations are still ongoing, but Target price (16.0) 11.0 that the situation is being monitored closely. It is also worth noting that DNO’s operations are in the Kurdish Region of Iraq, in the North East, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Norway not directly bordering Iran. Nevertheless, we find the current situation to DNO.OL/DNO NO materially increase the uncertainty in our estimates and/or the cost of capital. 67% of our blue sky SOTP is related to Iraq. MCap (NOKm) 9,963 MCap (EURm) 1,012.2 Underlying Q4 numbers are likely strong Net debt (EURm) 473 We expect the quarterly numbers to materially improve q-o-q, driven by NCS fields being back on stream – for example, the Vilje field (where DNO No. of shares (m) 985 has a 28.853% stake) was offline in Q3, while was back in production in Free float (%) 55.6 Q4. We estimate this alone will add ~1,9kboe/d net to DNO for the quarter. Av. daily volume (k) na We estimate that DNO will report net sales of USD 277m, and EBITDAX of

USD 207m. Q3 was USD 227m and USD 157m. We estimate that DNO Next event Q4 report: 06 Feb should have an underlying operating cash flow in Q4 of USD 186m. However, KRG has advised that two monthly payments, due in November Performance and December 2019, will be paid in January 2020. We estimate this to 240 have a USD 113m negative WC effect in Q4. We expect this to be 220 200 reversed in Q1, but the increased regional unrest creates a question mark. 180 160 Too much uncertainty, down to HOLD (BUY) 140 120 In a blue sky scenario, we find the valuation of DNO compelling, with a 100 SOTP of NOK 21/sh. However, given the recent developments in Iraq, we 80 60

argue the estimate uncertainty is too high (and hard to reflect in the WACC).

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May 17 May May 18 May We downgrade DNO to HOLD (But) and reduce the TP to NOK 11 (16) 19 May DNO OSE GI noting that Kurdistan makes up 67% of our blue sky SOTP for DNO. 1m 3m 12m Lead analyst: [email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65 Absolute (%) 0.6 -17.5 -31.1 [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 OSE GI (%) 5.6 8.4 11.6 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 14.0 6.2 7.4 Sales 347 829 974 982 883 P/E adj (x) 5.3 6.2 7.4 EBITDA 736 639 567 625 540 P/BVPS (x) 1.00 0.85 0.79 EBITDA margin (%) 211.7 77.0 58.3 63.7 61.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 2.0 1.8 EBIT adj 630 379 264 365 315 EV/EBIT adj (x) 6.4 3.4 3.1 EBIT adj margin (%) 181.2 45.7 27.1 37.2 35.6 EV/sales (x) 1.73 1.25 1.09 Pretax profit 475 323 8 285 241 ROE adj (%) 18.6 14.8 11.2 EPS rep 0.46 0.34 0.08 0.18 0.16 Dividend yield (%) 4.1 4.1 4.1 EPS adj 0.56 0.34 0.21 0.18 0.16 FCF yield (%) -37.3 39.5 27.7 Sales growth (%) 72.6 138.7 17.4 0.8 -10.0 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -37.3 39.5 27.7 EPS growth (%) 1,517.2 -27.3 -75.6 123.9 -15.2 Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.9 0.2 -0.3 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 0.9 0.2 -0.3

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

DNO

Key estimates, quarterly

DNO Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement FactSet % Net sales 369 204 266 227 277.1 257.5 265.8 4% 829 974 982 883 1,021 966 EBITDAX 325 140 195 157 207.1 188.4 700 698 712 627 EBITDA 305 107 177 109 175.1 163.4 166.4 5% 639 567 625 540 661 611 EBITDA margins 83% 52% 66% 48% 63% 63% 63% 77% 58% 64% 61% 65% 63% EBIT 230 38 100 -106 94.7 93.4 84.9 12% 377 126 365 315 352 323 EBIT margins 62% 19% 37% n.a. 34% 36% 32% 45% 13% 37% 36% 34% 33% PTP 215 16 64 -146 74.6 72.7 58.6 27% 323 8 285 241 276 262 Net profit 230 51 68 -97 62.9 50.0 105.2 -40% 354 86 186 154 257 239 EPS (USD) 0.22 0.05 0.06 -0.09 0.06 0.05 0.10 -39% 0.34 0.08 0.19 0.16 0.24 0.23 DPS(USD) 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.07

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 594 742 1,081 1,067 1,037 1,037 594 1,037 1,037 1,037 Gross cash 729 254 574 624 507 684 729 507 915 1,181 NIBD -135 488 507 443 529 353 396 34% -135 529 122 -144 111 -93 NIBD/share (NOK) -1.09 3.99 4.18 3.75 4.88 3.22 3.22 -1.06 4.51 1.12 -1.32 0.87 -0.80 Book equity/share (NOK) 9.81 10.39 11.10 9.82 10.95 11.06 9.55 15% 9.57 10.12 12.09 13.07 11.66 13.79

Operating cash flow 169 50 53 210 73 279 173 -58% 472 386 744 559 641 576 Capex and expex -58 -526 -68 -114 -124 -75 -130 nm -340 -832 -286 -245 -325 -325 Free cash flow 111 -476 -14 96 -52 204 43 nm 131 -446 458 313 315 251 Free cash flow /share (NOK) 0.90 -3.90 -0.12 0.82 -0.48 1.87 1.03 -3.80 4.18 2.86

Other key figures and assumptions Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Production (Gross, boe/d) 138,604 131,669 130,050 122,754 119,001 116,026 121,056 126,759 109,248 105,971 Kurdistan 127,262 126,759 126,538 119,757 119,001 116,026 113,100 123,015 109,248 105,971 Yemen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oman 4,219 187 0 0 0 0 4,395 0 0 0 North Sea 7,123 4,723 3,512 2,997 0 0 3,562 3,744 0 0

Production (WI, boe/d) 91,570 98,030 103,901 99,304 102,726 101,196 78,540 99,152 96,163 92,940 Kurdistan 89,720 89,365 89,209 84,428 83,895 81,798 76,342 85,774 77,019 74,709 Yemen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oman 1,850 87 0 0 0 0 2,197 0 0 0 North Sea 0 8,578 14,692 14,876 18,831 19,399 0 13,378 19,143 18,232

Production (NE, boe/d) 37,672 46,010 52,625 51,487 54,034 48,057 30,344 49,330 45,493 40,293 Kurdistan 36,894 37,390 37,933 36,611 35,202 28,658 29,320 35,952 26,349 22,061 Yemen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oman 778 42 0 0 0 0 1,024 0 0 0 North Sea 0 8,578 14,692 14,876 18,831 19,399 0 13,378 19,143 18,232

Oil price assumption Brent 69 63 69 62 63 65 71 64 65 65

NOK/USD 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.0 8.2 8.8 9.0 9.0 EPS (NOK) 1.9 0.4 0.6 -0.8 0.6 0.5 2.8 0.7 1.7 1.4 Free cash flow /share (NOK) 0.9 -3.9 -0.1 0.8 -0.5 1.9 1.0 -3.8 4.2 2.9

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 25

Equinor Reason: Preview of results Q4 and CMU likely to be positive

 Q4 was OK, 2019 RRR >1x

 JS will make sure 2020 is strong Estimate changes (%)  BUY rating and NOK 200 TP both reiterated 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -1.4% 1.1% 2.0% Johan Sverdrup effects and FCF allocation in focus EBIT (rep) -5.1% 1.4% -3.1% On 6 Feb., STL will hold a Capital Markets Update (“CMU”) and report its EPS (rep) -6.0% 0.3% -6.9% Q4 figures. We think the stock market will focus on two issues: 1) how Source: ABG Sundal Collier 2020 looks for Equinor given the recent production start from the Johan Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 181.5 Sverdrup field (we forecast ~8% production growth, lower unit costs and a strong positive effect on the FCF) and 2) how the strong FCF Target price (200.0) 200.0 generated by a USD 50+ oil price (the level required to cover dividend) will be spent. Integrated Oil & Gas, Norway EQNR.OL/EQNR NO Q4 was probably strong and RRR >1x for 2019 We see Q4 equity production about flat, y-o-y. We estimate Q4 EBIT of MCap (NOKm) 588,805 USD 3.8bn, which is in line with FactSet at USD 3.7bn. We forecast an MCap (EURm) 59,705.7 organic RRR for 2020 just above ~1.0x. Keep in mind that we have Net debt (EURm) 16,968 lowered our adj. 2019e EPS by ~4%, which is mainly explained by lower than expected gas prices in Q4’19. No. of shares (m) 3,245 Valuation looks attractive Free float (%) 33.0 The “market-to-market” P/E (market to market prices) is 9-11x, which Av. daily volume (k) na seems rather attractive. The current dividend of ~NOK 9 is sustainable with an oil price as low as USD 45-50. For the dividend, Equinor will Next event Q4 report: 06 Feb spend ~NOK 3.5 per share in buybacks each year over the next three Performance years (USD 5bn to the end of 2022). All in all, we find the risk/reward highly attractive and rate the stock BUY with a NOK 200 target. 150 140

130 [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 Lead analyst: 120 110 100 90

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May 18 May May 19 May Equinor OSE GI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 6.6 10.2 -6.7 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 20.0 10.6 9.6 Sales 61,186 79,657 66,867 68,015 71,055 P/E adj (x) 13.4 10.6 9.6 EBITDA 22,416 29,387 22,750 27,158 29,368 EBITDA margin (%) 36.6 36.9 34.0 39.9 41.3 P/BVPS (x) 1.64 1.54 1.44 EBIT adj 12,640 17,960 13,714 18,496 20,497 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.8 3.1 2.8 EBIT adj margin (%) 20.7 22.5 20.5 27.2 28.8 EV/EBIT adj (x) 6.2 4.5 4.0 Pretax profit 13,286 18,875 11,863 17,749 19,780 EV/sales (x) 1.28 1.23 1.16 EPS rep 1.35 2.26 1.02 1.94 2.14 ROE adj (%) 12.0 15.1 15.6 EPS adj 1.37 2.01 1.52 1.94 2.14 Dividend yield (%) 5.1 5.9 5.9 FCF yield (%) 5.6 8.4 7.7 Sales growth (%) 33.4 30.2 -16.1 1.7 4.5 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 5.6 8.4 7.7 EPS growth (%) 251.4 67.3 -54.8 89.3 10.5 Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.8 0.6 0.5 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 0.8 0.6 0.5

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Equinor

Key estimates (FactSet) ABGSC (FactSet) Equinor Cons. vs. cons. NEW ESTIMATES Cons. Cons. USDbn Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement % Net sales 22.4 16.5 17.1 15.6 17.6 17.0 17.4 2% 79.7 66.9 68.0 71.1 71.1 74.9 EBITDA 9.5 6.9 5.8 4.2 5.9 6.8 6.2 -5% 29.4 22.8 27.2 29.4 26.1 28.3 EBIT 6.7 4.7 3.5 -0.5 3.8 4.7 3.7 2% 20.1 11.6 18.5 20.5 16.6 17.8 EBIT margins 30% 29% 21% n.a. 21% 28% 21% 0% 25% 0.2 27% 29% Net profit 3.4 1.7 1.5 -1.1 1.3 1.6 1.3 3% 7.5 3.4 6.4 7.1 5.5 6.1 # avg. Shares (bn) 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 EPS (USD) 1.01 0.51 0.44 -0.33 0.40 0.48 0.38 2.26 1.02 1.94 2.14 1.66 1.94 Adj. EPS (USD) 0.46 0.46 0.34 0.32 0.40 0.48 0.39 2% 2.01 1.52 1.94 2.14 DPS (USD) 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.30 0.23 0.95 1.04 1.20 1.20 1.05 1.05

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 26 30 30 29 29 29 n.a. 26 29 29 29 Gross cash 15 16 16 14 14 15 n.a. 15 14 15 17 NIBD 11 14 15 15 15 14 n.a. 11 15 13 12 NIBD (excl. leases) 10 10 10 11 10 n.a. 11 9 8 NIBD/share (NOK) 28.2 36.1 38.8 39.2 41.7 37.8 n.a. 27.2 40.3 35.9 32.6 NIBD (excl. leases)/share (NOK) 25.2 26.8 27.6 30.1 26.4 29.1 24.5 21.2 Book equity/share (NOK) 108.7 116.2 116.9 109.1 113.4 114.0 n.a. 105.0 109.5 119.3 127.8

Operating cash flow 4.2 5.1 2.7 4.2 2.2 4.9 n.a. 19.6 14.2 16.7 16.2 Free cash flow 1.8 0.3 -0.9 4.0 0.4 2.1 n.a. 5.3 3.8 5.7 5.2 Free cash flow/share (NOK) 4.6 0.6 -2.2 10.7 1.0 5.7 n.a. 13.0 10.0 15.4 14.1

Other key figures and assumptions NOK figures Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e NOK/USD 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.1 8.8 9.0 9.0 8.75 8.75 EPS (NOK) 8.5 4.4 3.8 -2.9 3.6 4.3 18.4 9.0 17.4 19.2 Adj. EPS (NOK) 3.9 4.0 2.9 2.9 3.6 4.3 3.33 16.4 13.4 17.4 19.2 14.53 16.98 DPS (NOK) 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7 7.7 9.2 10.8 10.8

Key assumptions: Oil Price, (Brent blend USD/b) 67.8 62.9 69.0 62.0 63.2 65.0 63.8 71.0 64.3 65.0 65.0 64.5 66.3 Group realised Oil price (USD/b) 59.0 55.8 59.3 52.5 55.3 58.6 n.a. 63.2 55.7 58.6 59.6 Realised oil price Norway (USD/b) 59.8 57.0 60.3 52.6 56.2 59.0 62.7 64.3 56.5 59.0 60.0 Realised oil price Internationally (USD/b) 58.1 54.6 58.2 52.3 54.2 58.0 58.7 61.8 54.8 58.0 59.0

Group realised gas price (USD/mill. BTU) 6.60 5.88 4.67 4.33 4.77 5.61 n.a. 6.15 4.92 5.57 6.00 Realised gas price Europe (USD/mill. BTU) 7.67 6.89 5.49 5.19 5.52 6.83 n.a. 7.02 5.77 6.28 6.60 UK spot (USD/mill. BTU) 8.31 6.28 4.08 3.24 4.04 6.00 8.31 7.98 4.41 5.50 6.25 Henry Hub (USD/mill. BTU) 3.91 2.93 2.56 2.37 2.41 2.60 n.a. 3.18 2.57 2.60 2.81 Realised gas price North America (USD/mill. BTU) 3.58 3.13 2.35 1.99 2.41 2.91 3.58 3.02 2.47 2.41 2.71

Adj. EBIT (USDbn): D&P Norway 3.2 3.2 2.4 1.7 2.7 3.5 2.7 -1% 13.0 10.0 13.8 15.7 D&P International 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 -6% 3.4 2.4 3.4 3.6 Marketing 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 16% 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 Other/eliminations 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 n.a. n.a 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 Sum adj. EBIT 4.4 4.2 3.2 2.6 3.8 4.7 3.7 2% 18.0 13.7 18.5 21.8

Equity production: NCS oil prod (kb/d) 571 546 479 497 610 670 575 565 533 659 692 NCS gas prod (kboe/d) 745 792 713 570 690 700 751 -8% 722 691 702 718 Total NCS (kboe/d) 1,316 1,338 1,192 1,067 1,300 1,370 1,326 1,288 1,224 1,361 1,410 Intl' oil prod (kb/d) 580 567 561 564 607 578 597 567 575 587 623 Intl' gas prod (kboe/d) 273 274 259 278 269 277 248 256 270 275 282 Total Intl' (kboe/d) 853 841 820 842 876 855 845 823 845 861 905 Total equity production (boe/d) 2,169 2,179 2,012 1,909 2,176 2,225 2,207 2,111 2,068 2,223 2,315 2,295 2,386 YoY growth 1.7% 0.0% -0.8% -7.6% 0.3% 2.1% 3.5% 1.5% -2.0% 7.5% 4.2%

PSA effect -150 -177 -170 -164 -164 -154 -145 -171 -169 -155 -157 Net entitlement production (000 boe/d) 2,019 2,002 1,842 1,745 2,011 2,071 2,062 1,939 1,900 2,067 2,158 2,123 2,201 YoY growth 3.0% 0.4% -0.5% -7.9% -0.4% 3.4% 5.2% 0.9% -2.1% 8.8% 4.4%

Other key figures: Adj. tax rate 39% 41% 54% 58% 60% 62% 38% 52% 61% 62% Exploration spending (USDbn) -0.53 -0.33 -0.36 -0.42 -0.58 -0.49 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9 -2.1 Y-o-Y growth in exploration spending (USD) 54% 1% 32% 33% 10% 48% 17% 17% 16% 10% "Organic" Capex (USDbn) -2.7 -2.2 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -9.9 -10.1 -11.0 -11.0 -11.3 -11.3 Y-o-Y growth in capex 0% 5% 4% 0% 0% 24% 5% 2% 9% 0% 10% 1% Capital employed (USDbn) 54 59 60 56 57 56 54 57 57 59 Capital employed (NOK/share) 137 152 156 148 155 152 132 150 155 160 Adj. NIBD/capital employed (pre IFRS 16) 22% 19% 20% 23% 23% 21% 22% 23% 19% 16%

Production guidance (all equity production): Production 2019: around the 2018 level Production 2025: 3% CAGR from 2019, i.e. ~2,520,000 boe

Other key guidance figures: 2019 organic capex guidance “USD10-11bn" 2019-2021 capex: "average about USD11bn" 2019 exploration spending “~USD1.7bn (of which slightly less than 1/3rd being capitalised) 14% ROACE in 2021 with Brent at USD70 (CMU, Feb 2019) FCF break-even at USD50 (after capex and dividend) Near-term tax rate: Norway 72-74%, Int. 30-45%, MMP 40-60%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 27

Lundin Petroleum Reason: Preview of results Johan Sverdrup to kick into the numbers

 Q4 EBITDA of USD 628m, 4% above cons

 CMD: positive JS news likely, but new projects lacking Estimate changes (%)  Potential for DPS of SEK 20, but still rated HOLD 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -0.7% -5.6% 0.2% Johan Sverdrup to kick into numbers EBIT (rep) -1.0% -6.7% -2.3% For Q4 (report due out on 31 January), we estimate that Lundin EPS (rep) -0.6% -6.0% -5.4% Petroleum will report production of 131kboe/d; this implies full-year Source: ABG Sundal Collier production of 92kboe/d in line with the full-year guidance of 90-95kboe/d. Share price (SEK) 10/01/2020 321.8 Q-o-q improvement relates to the start-up on Johan Sverdrup +52.7kboe/d, while the other fields largely are expected to be flat q-o-q. Target price (300.0) 330.0 We estimate EBITDA of USD 628m, 4% above FactSet consensus at USD 607m. Further, we estimate good FCF of USD 320m in Q4, ahead Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Sweden of cons at USD 235m. LUPE.ST/LUPE SS

Likely positive news flow from JS, but new projects lacking MCap (SEKm) 91,408 With both LUPE and its key peers Aker BP and EQNR hosting MCap (EURm) 8,674.7 CMD/CMU’s in conjunction with the Q4 numbers, we expect positive Net debt (EURm) 3,323 news flow ahead. In our view, we are likely to see positive reserve revisions and potential further cost reductions on Johan Sverdrup, No. of shares (m) 284 following indications of very good flow from the pre-drilled wells. Free float (%) 50.4 For the portfolio on a broad basis, we fear that a lack of new projects will Av. daily volume (k) na be obvious at LUPE’s CMD. Thus, we expect to see a substantial exploration programme lined up for 2020. Next event Q4 report: 31 Jan Performance DPS hike likely, but longer-term prospects muted We expect that LUPE will raise its DPS to SEK 20, implying 7.2% yield 200 for 2020, with potential for further hikes in 2021 in light of the very strong 180 cash generation by Johan Sverdrup in production. This is clearly 160 compelling. We do, however, have two concerns for the share going 140 forwards: 1) we find the premium to NAV to be very high, as the share 120 currently discounts an oil price of USD 95/bbl (well above the key peer 100

Aker BP), and 2) we find LUPE’s hopper of new projects to be modest 80

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compared to the key peer, Aker BP. We reiterate our HOLD, TP SEK 330 20 Jan

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May 18 May May 19 May (300). Lundin Petroleum OMX STH PI

1m 3m 12m Lead analyst: [email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65 [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 Absolute (%) 8.6 10.3 28.9 OMX STH PI (%) 4.3 12.7 26.0 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 14.9 15.0 14.1 Sales 1,997 2,408 2,867 3,688 3,765 P/E adj (x) 14.9 15.0 14.1 EBITDA 1,425 1,651 2,440 3,262 3,465 EBITDA margin (%) 71.3 68.6 85.1 88.5 92.0 P/BVPS (x) -6.30 -6.51 -7.32 EBIT adj 812 1,193 2,013 2,714 2,943 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 4.0 3.6 EBIT adj margin (%) 40.7 49.5 70.2 73.6 78.2 EV/EBIT adj (x) 7.1 4.8 4.3 Pretax profit 925 1,038 1,649 2,629 2,860 EV/sales (x) 4.98 3.53 3.35 EPS rep 1.25 0.04 2.27 2.26 2.41 ROE adj (%) -69.1 -41.0 -49.2 EPS adj 1.38 0.04 2.27 2.26 2.41 Dividend yield (%) 6.2 7.3 9.3 FCF yield (%) 12.7 9.2 11.0 Sales growth (%) 72.2 20.6 19.1 28.6 2.1 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 12.7 9.2 11.0 EPS growth (%) 214.1 -97.1 6,087.3 -0.4 6.3 Net IB debt/EBITDA 1.5 1.0 0.9 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 1.5 1.0 0.9

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Lundin

Key estimates Lundin Petroleum FactSet FactSet Cons. Cons.New estimates Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement % Net Sales 528 436 447 451 735 840 2,075 2,069 3,648 3,724 Revenues 611 492 500 1,215 745 850 736 1.3% 2,408 2,867 3,688 3,765 3,616 3,865 EBITDAX 448 404 410 1,166 671 774 n.m. 1,704 2,567 3,382 3,465 n.a. n.a. EBITDAX margins 73% 82% 82% 96% 90% 91% n.a. 71% 90% 92% 92% n.a. n.a. EBITDA 401 367 377 1,153 628 744 607 3.5% 1,651 2,440 3,262 3,465 3,159 3,416 EBIT 284 267 280 1,048 503 613 446 12.8% 1,193 2,013 2,714 2,943 2,476 2,721 EBIT margins 47% 54% 56% 86% 68% 72% 61% 50% 70% 74% 78% 68% 70% PTP 81 236 284 731 482 592 425 13.6% 1,038 1,649 2,629 2,860 2,358 2,600 Net profit -105 55 97 520 124 148 117 6.3% 12 712 647 688 676 707 EPS (USD) -0.31 0.16 0.29 1.83 0.44 0.52 0.33 32.5% 0.04 2.29 2.28 2.42 2.27 2.51 DPS (USD) 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 2.5 3.1 1.82 2.05

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 3,465 3,395 3,460 4,150 4,040 3,930 3,465 4,040 3,500 3,220 Gross cash 67 91 101 95 211 155 67 211 47 201 NIBD 3,398 3,304 3,359 4,055 3,829 3,775 3,750 2.1% 3,398 3,829 3,453 3,019 3,152 2,870 NIBD/share (SEK) 90.8 89.5 93.7 136.9 133.3 129.6 99.4 122.9 120.1 102.9 Book equity/share (SEK) -10.3 -22.5 -22.4 -60.8 -56.7 -51.1 -10.0 -50.9 -49.5 -44.0

Operating cash flow 433 346 409 231 688 384 571 1,718 1,673 1,831 1,547 Free cash flow 173 96 72 951 320 150 235 36.4% 663 1,438 891 1,069 Free cash flow /share (SEK) 4.6 2.6 2.0 32.1 10.8 5.0 17.3 43.7 29.8 35.8

Other key figures and assumptions Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Brent (USD) 68 63 69 62 63 65 71 64 65 65 Realised price/boe 70 62 65 59 61 63 70 61 63 63 USD/SEK 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.5 8.8 9.5 9.5 9.5 EPS (SEK) -2.8 1.5 2.7 17.6 4.2 5.0 0.3 21.6 21.6 23.0 DPS (SEK) 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.3 0.0 13.4 20.3 23.4 29.9

Production (boe/d): Alvheim 10,100 10,000 9,200 8,600 9,155 9,129 9,423 9,227 8,475 6,630 Volund 5,200 4,200 4,600 5,600 3,468 3,295 6,384 4,416 3,173 2,856 Gaupe 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 0 Bøyla 400 400 500 1,100 384 346 673 597 297 196 Brynhild 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Edvard Grieg 65,600 63,300 61,000 66,600 64,350 63,300 63,625 63,738 64,550 64,349 Johan Sverdrup 0 0 0 0 52,658 70,000 0 13,165 81,500 88,000 Ivar Aasen 800 900 800 800 900 900 937 863 900 738 Sum Norw ay 82,100 78,800 76,100 82,700 130,915 146,970 81,117 92,005 158,896 162,769 Group production 82,100 78,800 76,100 82,700 130,915 146,970 125,689 4.2% 81,117 92,005 158,896 162,769 159,666 164,601 Y-o-Y grow th -1% -5% -6% 6% 59% 87% -6% 13% 73% 2%

Other key figures: Full opex (USD/boe) -5.2 -5.7 -5.5 -5.5 -5.6 -5.2 -4.9 -5.6 -4.8 -4.6 Depreciation (USD/boe) -15.4 -14.1 -14.0 -13.8 -10.4 -9.8 -15.5 -12.7 -9.4 -8.8 Realised tax rate -231% -77% -66% -29% -74% -75% -99% -57% -75% -76% Exploration spending -85 -87 -96 -53 -89 -63 -311 -325 -250 0 Exploration expensed -47 -37 -34 -14 -43 -30 -53 -127 -120 0 Capex -151 -163 -196 -186 -279 -172 -731 -824 -690 -453 Decommissioning capex 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -26

Guidance: 2019 capex: Development USD 730m 2019 capex: Expl & Appraisal USD 325m 2019 production: 90-95 mboe/d

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, FactSet

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 29

Noreco Reason: Preview of results Well positioned for 2020

 Q4: No material estimate revisions ahead of numbers

 Low risk growth on the agenda, capital is in place Estimate changes (%)  Buybacks looming and undemanding valuation 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -1.3% 0.0% 0.0% No material estimate revisions ahead of Q4 numbers EBIT (rep) -3.4% 0.0% 0.0% We make no material estimate revisions for Noreco, only pencilling in EPS (rep) -0.8% 0.0% 0.0% updated oil and gas prices for Q4. Our Q4’19e EBITDAX is USD 127m, Source: ABG Sundal Collier based on production of 32.7kboe/d in line with the production guidance of Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 226.5 31-33kboe/d. We expect a cleaner Q4 report vs. Q3, keeping in mind that Q3 was affected by both transaction adjustments and the shut-down of Target price (360.0) 360.0 the Tyra field for re-development. Noreco will report Q4 results on 25 February. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Norway NOR.OL/NOR NO 2020 likely the year when the curtains are opened further Noreco has gradually provided more details on the resources beyond the MCap (NOKm) 5,560 2P reserves, and at the Q3 report, it highlighted three concrete projects it MCap (EURm) 563.8 targets to develop. We expect that Noreco will use 2020 to open the Net debt (EURm) 791 curtains further and provide insight into the resource hopper. Even more important is to move from plan to production, and some projects are No. of shares (m) 24.5 likely to be sanctioned in the medium term. We see Noreco as well Free float (%) 14.4 capitalized to address such low-risk growth opportunities. Av. daily volume (k) na Buybacks looming and undemanding valuation = BUY Given the recent approval from RBL banks of USD 20m in buyback Next event Q4 report: 25 Feb (bond term sheet allows for USD 25m), we think it is likely that Noreco Performance will initiate buybacks shortly. Under the current AGM authorization, it can 180 buy up to 719,473 shares, 2.9% of the shares outstanding. Given that 160 Noreco trades at a P/NAV of 0.7x (assuming USD 65/bbl oil), we find that 140 a buyback would be both accretive to NAV (by ~2.5% at the current 120 share price) and could offer sought after short-term liquidity in the stock. 100 For the longer term, we think increased share liquidity through a more 80 dispersed shareholder base is required. 60

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May 18 May May 19 May NAV (note the high near-term visibility from hedging). We reiterate our Noreco OSE GI BUY recommendation and TP of NOK 360. 1m 3m 12m

Lead analyst: [email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65 Absolute (%) -5.0 9.2 -5.2 [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 3.8 6.7 11.8 Sales 1 2 356 715 579 P/E adj (x) 1.6 6.7 11.8 EBITDA -6 -19 192 509 358 P/BVPS (x) 0.31 0.44 0.43 EBITDA margin (%) -576.7 -1,133.5 54.0 71.1 61.8 EBIT adj -7 -19 -147 397 257 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.7 1.7 2.5 EBIT adj margin (%) -599.6 -1,140.5 -41.2 55.5 44.3 EV/EBIT adj (x) -4.8 2.2 3.4 Pretax profit -13 -16 -127 331 187 EV/sales (x) 1.99 1.22 1.53 EPS rep -1.08 -2.28 6.68 3.80 2.15 ROE adj (%) 164.4 18.2 8.8 EPS adj -1.08 -2.28 15.55 3.80 2.15 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -140.1 -3.4 -1.9 Sales growth (%) -9.0 54.4 21,176.3 100.5 -18.9 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -140.1 -3.4 -1.9 EPS growth (%) -136.9 -110.9 392.5 -43.1 -43.4 Net IB debt/EBITDA 4.6 1.8 2.5 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 4.6 1.8 2.5

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Noreco

Key estimates Noreco (FactSet) (FactSet) Cons. Cons.New estimates Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement % Net sales 1 0 1 160 195 191 207.3 -6% 2 356 715 579 762 668 EBITDAX -15 -1 -1 68 127 139 -19 192 509 358 EBITDA -15 -1 -1 68 127 139 143.9 -12% -19 192 509 358 560 469 EBITDA margins n.a. n.a. n.a. 43% 65% 73% n.a. 54% 71% 62% EBIT -15 -1 -2 -240 96 112 112.1 -15% -19 -147 397 257 442 357 EBIT margins n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 49% 59% n.a. n.a. 56% 44% PTP -11 -3 -4 -224 104 98 109.3 -5% -16 -127 331 187 385 301 Net profit -11 -3 -4 179 37 35 41.8 -11% -16 209 119 67 114 101 Diluted EPS -1.5 -0.5 -0.5 5.7 1.2 1.1 1.3 -0.1 -2.3 6.7 3.8 2.2 4.0 2.9

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 53 57 57 904 1,079 1,079 53 1,079 1,079 1,079 Gross cash 3 3 1 135 194 212 3 194 166 191 NIBD 50 54 56 769 885 867 736 20% 50 885 913 888 873 931 NIBD/share (NOK) 59 65 67 217 257 249 57 249 262 255 Book equity -4 -9 -11 559 596 632 -4 596 716 823 Book equity/share (NOK) -4 -10 -13 158 173 181 -4 167 205 236 NIBD (assuming CB converted) 611 727 709 727 755 730

Operating cash flow -16 0 -2 115 74 117 -21 187 368 264 Free cash flow -55 0 -2 -1,001 -116 18 -60 -1,119 -27 -15 Free cash flow /share (NOK) -65 0 -2 -283 -34 5 -68 -314 -8 -4

Other key figures and assumptions Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Brent 69 63 69 62 63 65 71 64 65 65 Realised price/boe (USD) 63 65 67 63 56 NOK/USD 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.0 8.1 8.8 9.0 9.0

Field-by-field production (boe/d): Halfdan hub Halfdan 18,400 18,032 18,032 19,307 17,577 16,170 Dan hub Dan 8,500 8,096 8,096 8,911 7,907 7,274 Kraka 900 690 606 740 651 537 Tyra hub Tyra 1,900 0 0 3,972 0 0 Tyra South East 2,900 0 0 3,477 0 0 Valdemar 1,000 0 0 3,289 0 0 Roar 500 0 0 484 0 0 Harald 1,200 0 0 1,102 0 0 Lulita 300 0 0 116 0 0 Gorm Hub Skjold 3,300 3,378 2,991 3,329 3,030 2,757 Gorm 2,300 2,125 1,472 2,260 1,527 1,252 Rolf 400 331 294 347 309 276 Total production 41,600 32,651 31,491 47,335 31,000 28,267 Of w hich is gas 32% 20% 19% 33% 19% 18% Liquids production 28,212 26,051 25,549 31,886 25,191 23,055 Gas production 13,388 6,600 5,942 15,449 5,809 5,212

Other key figures: Unit production costs/boe (USD) -26.9 -20.5 -15.4 -7.5 -15.5 -18.6 Depreciation cost/boe (USD) -11.9 -10.2 -9.6 -3.5 -9.8 -9.8 Capex (USDm) -55 -100 -99 -155 -396 -279 Reported tax rate 64% 64% 64% 64%

Guidance: Q4'19 production: 31-33kboe/d

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 31

Oil & Oil Services

Seismic market & company overview

Recovery continues in all segments, but strongest in the contract from here The year 2019 was the third year with improving MC demand (spending up ~13%) and the first year since 2013 that the contract market saw improvements. In fact, according to our estimates, the contract market jumped ~30% y-o-y in 2019. We expect this trend to continue (contract market recovering more strongly than the MC market) for the following reasons:  The consolidation in the seismic vessel market has led to fewer vessels in the market and higher pricing discipline among the players.  Contract demand is driven in part by increased industry MC investments – after a number of years with under-investments. We note that several MC players (TGS, CGG and WG) do not have any vessels and need to charge in vessels from the contract players, which effectively leads to higher contract/vessel demand.

Offshore seismic spending (USDbn) MC late-sales are already strong. The seismic market 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Contract rates likely to rise over the Offshore seismic market (USDbn) 8.1 8.6 7.6 4.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 4.3 4.7 5.1 next 1-2 months Y/Y growth 24% 6% -11% -36% -34% 7% 5% 18% 10% 9%

MC market (USDbn) 3.9 3.7 3.3 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 Y/Y growth 37% -6% -11% -27% -17% 19% 9% 13% 5% 6%

Contract and other market (USDbn) 4.2 4.9 4.3 2.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 Y/Y growth 13% 16% -11% -43% -51% -12% -5% 30% 20% 15%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

A classical pattern – a contract improves 1-2 years after the MC market MC revenues (USDm) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e TGS-Nopec 163 232 376 392 475 445 543 568 901 824 878 586 435 485 613 808 1,002 CGG (incl. on-shore) 423 479 641 808 739 523 536 468 584 624 686 546 394 469 518 608 581 WesternGeco (incl. on-shore) 436 509 770 1,001 823 596 644 838 938 934 582 314 509 613 551 714 750 PGS 61 80 263 504 439 351 391 502 728 672 600 575 469 534 654 553 594 Spectrum 10 22 23 47 114 141 181 109 72 119 134 99 Dolphin 45 28 50 52 Polarcus 21 30 34 45 93 57 28 19 13 14 SeaBird 7 10 22 11 18 3 4 2 0 2 0 MCG (estimates from 2017) 3 8 23 34 13 13 8 10 10 10 10 10 ION 12 21 50 75 200 98 169 175 235 267 165 112 67 141 117 146 153 Shearwater 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. Fugro 50 60 80 80 90 90 270 219 302 168 99 21 Sum 1,146 1,382 2,180 2,861 2,775 2,126 2,591 2,869 3,932 3,714 3,316 2,419 2,018 2,401 2,615 2,954 3,104 Growth YoY 20% 21% 58% 31% -3% -23% 22% 11% 37% -6% -11% -27% -17% 19% 9% 13% 5%

Contract rates 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e Realised day rate rates (10-12 str.) 171 196 245 307 360 309 219 230 270 292 233 152 140 140 142 185 213 Y/Y increase in prices 10% 15% 25% 25% 17% -14% -29% 5% 17% 8% -20% -35% -8% 0% 2% 30% 15%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

We assume a 15% increase in contract rates in 2020 Average realised day rates (000USD) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 3D (14-16 streamers - high end, Ramform equivalent) 194 223 279 348 400 330 245 257 288 323 274 192 177 177 180 234 269 283 3D (12-14 streamer) 171 196 245 307 360 309 219 230 270 292 233 152 140 140 142 185 213 223 3D (10-12 streamers - mid to high end market) 157 181 226 283 330 285 202 212 244 264 224 146 134 134 137 178 205 215 3D (5-6 streamers - low end) 95 109 136 170 200 140 105 108 116 127 108 70 65 65 66 76 83 88 2D 38 45 77 90 85 64 54 56 70 77 72 61 56 56 58 63 66 70 Source vessels 45 46 69 67 40 44 46 56 56 50 43 40 40 41 45 48 50

Y/Y change in day rates 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 3D (14-16 streamers - high end, Ramform equivalent) 10% 15% 25% 25% 15% -18% -26% 5% 12% 12% -15% -30% -8% 0% 2% 30% 15% 5% 3D (12-14 streamer) 10% 15% 25% 25% 17% -14% -29% 5% 17% 8% -20% -35% -8% 0% 2% 30% 15% 5% 3D (10-12 streamers - mid to high end market) 10% 15% 25% 25% 17% -14% -29% 5% 15% 8% -15% -35% -8% 0% 2% 30% 15% 5% 3D (5-6 streamers - low end) 10% 15% 25% 25% 18% -30% -25% 3% 7% 10% -15% -35% -8% 0% 2% 15% 10% 5% 2D 0% 20% 71% 17% -6% -25% -15% 3% 25% 10% -6% -15% -8% 0% 2% 10% 5% 5% Source vessels 3% 50% -3% -40% 10% 5% 20% 0% -10% -15% -5% 0% 2% 10% 5% 5%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 32

Oil & Oil Services

Contract rates are rising due to higher vessel utilization 100% 100%100%100%100% 100% 400 95% 95% 90% 90% 350 90% 87% 85%85% 85% 86% 85% 83% 300 85% 82% 83% 80% 79% 250 80% 76% 74% 75% 74% 75% 72%72% 72% 200 70%71% 70% 150 65%

100 000) ratesDay (USD

60% Vessel utilisation (practical) Vesselutilisation 55% 50

50% 0

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Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

An overview of the global seismic fleet 3D Vessels and streamers 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Number of vessels start of the year 50 51 49 45 42 41 37 45 50 57 64 59 67 74 71 68 62 36 30 30 25 23 25 New vessels 6 4 0 2 0 0 8 6 9 8 5 9 7 3 3 4 2 1 1 0 0 2 2 Vessels being taken out 5 6 4 5 1 4 0 1 2 1 10 1 0 6 6 10 28 7 1 5 2 0 0 Number of vessels year end 51 49 45 42 41 37 45 50 57 64 59 67 74 71 68 62 36 30 30 25 23 25 27 Y/Y change in fleet 2% -4% -8% -7% -2% -10% 22% 11% 14% 12% -8% 14% 10% -4% -4% -9% -42% -17% 0% -17% -8% 9% 8%

Number of streamers start of the year 320 340 354 342 327 322 302 352 413 493 562 551 661 738 734 719 682 440 372 388 328 304 328 New capacity 50 44 0 13 0 0 50 61 80 75 59 116 77 40 37 53 30 16 16 0 0 24 24 Capacity being taken out 30 30 12 28 5 20 0 0 0 6 70 6 0 44 52 90 272 84 12 60 24 0 0 Number of streamers year end 340 354 342 327 322 302 352 413 493 562 551 661 738 734 719 682 440 372 388 328 304 328 352 Y/Y change in capacity 1% -3% -6% -5% -2% -7% 15% 17% 19% 14% -2% 20% 12% -1% -2% -5% -35% -15% 4% -15% -7% 8% 7%

Core global seismic fleet list Streamer Other vessels in the market Streamer Company 3D vessels Build capacity Company 3D vessels Build capacity 1 Shearwater Amazon Warrior 2015 14 1 BGP (China) BGP Pioneer 1991 6 2 BGP (China) BGP Prospector 2011 12 2 Shearwater Amazon Conqueror 2014 14 3 Turkish Petroleum Corp. Polarcus Samur Q1(11) 7 3 Shearwater WG Amundsen Q3(10) 12 4 Japanese government Ramform Sterling (sold to Japan) Q2'09 14 4 Shearwater Polar Duchess 2012 12 5 Polarcus / Sovcomflot Ivan Gubkin (Polarcus Amani) Q1(12) 14 5 Shearwater Polar Marquis 2014 14 6 COSL (China) Hai Yang Shi You 720 2011 6-10 6 Shearwater Polar Empress (Super Duke) 2015 16 7 COSL (China) HYSY 721 2014 12 7 Shearwater/CGG Geo Coral (GSS; CGG/Eidesvik) Q3'10 16 8 Sinopec CGG Laurentian 2013 10 8 Shearwater/CGG Geo Caribbean (GSS; CGG/Eidesvik) 2008 14 Key stacked vessels Streamer 9 Shearwater/CGG Oceanic Vega (GSS, Eidesvik) Q3'10 14 Company 3D vessels Build capacity 10 Shearwater/CGG Oceanic Sirius (GSS; CGG/Eidesvik) Q4'11 16 1 PGS Ramform Challenger 1996 10 1 PGS Sanco Swift (Sanco) Q3'13 12 2 PGS Ramform Explorer 1995 10 2 PGS PGS Apollo Q1'10 12 3 PGS Sanco Sword (Sanco) Q2'14 12 3 PGS Ramform Sovereign 2008 15 4 PGS Ramform Viking 1998 12 4 PGS Ramform Vanguard 1999 12 5 PGS Ramform Valiant 1998 12 6 Polarcus Polarcus Nadia Q4(09) 12 5 PGS Ramform Titan Q1'13 15 7 Shearwater/CGG Geo Celtic (GSS; CGG/Eidesvik) 2007 12 6 PGS Ramform Atlas Q1'14 15 8 Shearwater/CGG Alize 1999 12 7 PGS Ramform Tethys Q1'16 16 9 Shearwater/CGG Oceanic Challenger 2000 12 8 PGS Ramform Hyperion Q1'17 16 10 Shearwater Polar Duke 2011 12 1 Polarcus Polarcus Naila Q4(09) 12 11 Shearwater Western Trident 1999 12 2 Polarcus Polarcus Asima Q4(10) 12 12 Shearwater Geco Eagle 1999 12 13 Shearwater WG Columbus (EEI) Q1(09) 12 3 Polarcus Polarcus Selma Q4(11) 7 14 Shearwater WG Magellan (EEII) Q3(09) 12 4 Polarcus Polarcus Alima Q2(11) 12 15 Volstad Oceanic Endavour (chartered from Volstad) 2007 14 5 Polarcus Polarcus Adira Q2(12) 14 16 O.C.AS Oceanic Champion (chartered from O.C.AS) 1994 12 23 Sum 312 17 Volstad Geo Caspian (GSS; CGG/Eidesvik) Q1'10 14

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 33

EMGS

EMGS Reason: Preview of results Q4 seems to have been strong

 Q4 EBITDA estimated at USD18m…

 …but more backlog is needed  We stick to our HOLD rating, TP cut to NOK 2.5 (3.5) Estimate changes (%) 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 17.0% -7.7% -9.8% Strong MC late-sales and high contract activity in Q4 EBIT (rep) 58.5% -36.2% nm On 6 January, EMGS reported that Q4 MC revenues were about USD EPS (rep) 175.0% -42.0% -137.7% 90m. In addition, EMGS had about 4.8 months of contract work in the Source: ABG Sundal Collier quarter. Q4 vessel utilisation was 80%. We estimate solid Q4 revenues Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 2.1 and EBITDA of USD 33m and USD 18m, respectively. Target price (3.5) 2.5 In need of more contracts EMGS has not reported any new contracts since 1 August 2019, though Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway a MC project was announced on 28 October 2019. Nevertheless, more EMGS.OL/EMGS NO contracts are essential to rebuild investor trust. MCap (NOKm) 275 Uncertainty is high – valuation is difficult MCap (EURm) 27.9 We have increased our 2019 estimates to reflect the strong MC sales Net debt (EURm) 18 (announced 6 Jan). For 2020-2021, we have lowered our estimates due to the lack of recent contract awards. EMGS still needs to prove its business model by delivering new contracts and more stable quarterly No. of shares (m) 131 earnings and cash flow. Based on the uncertainty ahead, we lower our Free float (%) 97.2 sales estimates for ’20-21 by 7.7% and 9.8%, respectively. Our EPS Av. daily volume (k) na estimates are also lowered by 42% and 137% for ’20-21, respectively. EMGS will report full-year results on 6 February. Next event Q4 report: 06 Feb

Performance Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 160 140 120 100 80 60 40

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May 18 May May 19 May EMGS OSE GI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 18.3 -5.5 36.2 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 4.7 11.7 -15.3 Sales 36 32 85 61 57 P/E adj (x) 4.7 11.7 -15.3 EBITDA -1 -13 43 21 16 EBITDA margin (%) -4.2 -41.7 51.3 33.8 28.5 P/BVPS (x) 4.17 3.07 3.85 EBIT adj -13 -29 16 5 -1 EV/EBITDA (x) 1.2 2.2 2.6 EBIT adj margin (%) -37.0 -92.3 19.2 8.3 -1.7 EV/EBIT adj (x) 3.1 8.9 -44.7 Pretax profit -22 -37 10 3 -3 EV/sales (x) 0.60 0.74 0.75 EPS rep -0.23 -0.28 0.05 0.02 -0.02 ROE adj (%) 121.7 30.3 -22.3 EPS adj -0.20 -0.26 0.05 0.02 -0.02 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) 43.0 17.3 10.0 Sales growth (%) -19.5 -12.0 168.5 -27.8 -7.3 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 43.0 17.3 10.0 EPS growth (%) 85.4 -18.8 117.9 -59.5 -176.2 Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.5 0.7 0.7 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA nm nm nm

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 34

EMGS

Key estimates USDm Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 11 14 27 33 15 81 45 36 32 85 61 57 EBITDA 3 7 16 18 5 -31 -9 -1 -13 43 21 16 EBITDA margins 24% 47% 58% 56% 33% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 51% 34% 28% EBIT -4 1 7 12 1 -69 -45 -17 -32 16 5 -1 EBIT margins n.a. 6% 28% 38% 7% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 19% 8% n.a. Net profit -6 -2 5 9 1 -76 -53 -21 -37 7 3 -2 # avg. shares 131 131 131 131 131 1,312 33 91 131 131 131 131 EPS -0.05 -0.02 0.04 0.07 0.00 -0.06 -1.61 -0.23 -0.28 0.05 0.02 -0.02 DPS (NOK) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 31 31 31 31 31 38 32 31 31 31 31 31 Gross cash 10 6 4 11 13 32 14 17 6 11 17 20 NIBD 21 25 27 20 18 6 18 14 25 20 14 11 NIBD/share (NOK) 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.0 4.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 Book equity/share (NOK) -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 8.4 2.6 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6

Operating cash flow 8 2 2 8 5 28 -1 -1 -12 20 18 18 Free cash flow 7 0 2 7 2 -14 -14 -13 -19 16 6 3 Free cash flow/share (NOK) 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -3.7 -1.2 -1.2 1.1 0.4 0.2

Other key figures and assumptions Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Average # of vessels 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.4 2.0 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Vessel utilisation 11% 73% 73% 80% 65% 57% 68% 56% 32% 59% 65% 70% Order backlog 26 97 78 n.a. n.a. 21 1 3 3 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Div. key figures: MC revenues 7 4 6 9 4 36 23 32 22 26 18 19 Contract and other revenues 4 10 21 24 11 45 22 3 10 59 44 37 Total revenues 11 14 27 33 15 81 45 36 32 85 61 57

Group cash costs 8 9 11 14 12 135 65 41 49 43 50 53

Key MC figures: Pre-funding revenues 0 0 5 0 2 13 1 13 7 5 9 11 Late-sales 7 4 1 9 2 33 22 19 13 21 9 8 Total MC revenues 7 4 6 9 4 45 23 32 20 26 18 19 MC investments 0 -2 0 0 -2 -37 -12 -7 -7 -2 -10 -13 Pre-funding ratio 0% 0% #DIV/0! 90% 90% 34% 5% 189% 105% 267% 90% 90% MC amortisation rate 26% 38% 53% 45% 50% 58% 125% 27% 55% 41% 50% 55% Sales/investment ratio 62.9 2.8 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.7 1.2 2.0 4.6 3.0 15.1 1.8 1.5 MC book value (USDm) 11 10 7 3 4 42 24 16 13 3 4 6

Covenants: Cash and cash equiv. >USD10m 10 6 4 11 13 32 14 17 6 11 17 20 Capital employed ratio min. 1/3 -32% -39% -8% 27% 31% 93% 65% 67% 12% 27% 42% 41%

Adj. EPS (NOK) -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 -0.4 -9.1 -1.5 -2.1 0.5 0.2 -0.1

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 35

Magseis Reason: Preview of results Can an equity issue be avoided?

 Soft Q4e EBITDA of USD -4m

 An equity issue in Q1’20 seems likely Estimate changes (%)  We stick to HOLD, TP cut to NOK 5 (7) 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.4% -5.4% -9.1% Q4 was most likely soft – but that should be no surprise EBIT (rep) -905.4% -132.8% -82.1% We expect Q4 revenues and EBITDA of USD 78m and USD -4m, which EPS (rep) -566.3% -823.8% -76.0% both are on par with company guidance as of Q3’19. Q4 results are due Source: ABG Sundal Collier out on 25 February. Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 5.2

The new management team is taking measures Target price (7.0) 5.0 Both the CEO and the CFO were replaced in H2’19. The new management has taken a lot of measures like cutting costs and capex, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway lowered guidance and started to restructure the organization. They have MSEISNOK.ST/MSEIS NO been open about the operational issues and the potential financial issues that could come in Q1’20. The CFO has said that he is very comfortable MCap (NOKm) 962 with both the financial covenants and the cash position as of Q4’19. MCap (EURm) 97.5 However, he also said that as of Q1’20, it will be tighter. Net debt (EURm) 6 We cut estimates and target price Due to limited new contract awards over the last months, we also lower No. of shares (m) 185 our 2020e-21e revenue and margin estimates. Magseis investors are Free float (%) 95.0 likely to see at least 2-3 weak quarters, risk of covenant breach and Av. daily volume (k) na additional restructuring costs. After all the disappointment that Magseis has been through over the last couple of years, we think it will take some Next event Q4 report: 25 Feb time for the new management team to rebuild both the company and the Performance market’s trust. We therefore stick to our HOLD rating and cut our target 200 price to NOK 5 (7) in order to reflect the lower estimates. 180 160

Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 140 120 [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 100 80 60 40

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May 18 May May 19 May Magseis OSE GI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 24.0 -48.3 -70.2 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -0.9 -8.7 23.6 Sales 74 136 463 342 388 P/E adj (x) -5.2 -11.5 7.7 EBITDA 26 23 41 42 55 EBITDA margin (%) 35.4 16.9 8.9 12.4 14.1 P/BVPS (x) 0.52 0.57 0.56 EBIT adj 10 3 -121 -3 5 EV/EBITDA (x) 2.8 3.0 0.9 EBIT adj margin (%) 13.9 2.3 -26.2 -0.8 1.2 EV/EBIT adj (x) -0.9 -47.9 10.2 Pretax profit 10 1 -129 -17 6 EV/sales (x) 0.25 0.37 0.12 EPS rep 0.11 -0.02 -0.68 -0.07 0.02 ROE adj (%) -7.7 -4.7 7.7 EPS adj 0.12 -0.01 -0.11 -0.05 0.08 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) 9.6 4.9 73.9 Sales growth (%) 25.4 84.7 239.1 -26.0 13.3 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 9.6 4.9 73.9 EPS growth (%) 125.7 -113.9 -4,360.0 90.1 137.1 Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.2 0.4 -1.2 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 0.2 0.4 -1.2

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Magseis

Key estimates Magseis Factset (Factset) Cons. ABGSC NEW ESTIMATES Cons. Cons. (USDm unless stated otherwise) Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e vs. Factset 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 120 132 134 78 64 75 3% 136 463 342 388 376 426 EBITDA 10 26 9 -4 3 -4 6% 23 41 42 55 57 77 EBITDA margins 9% 19% 7% n.a. 4% n.a. 17% 9% 12% 14% 15% 18% EBIT -7 9 -104 -20 -11 -19 3% 3 -121 -3 5 7 26 EBIT margins n.a. 7% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2% n.a. n.a. 1% 2% 6% Net profit -11 10 -104 -20 -12 -18 13% -3 -126 -12 5 -2 19 # avg. shares 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 EPS (USD) -0.06 0.05 -0.56 -0.11 -0.07 -0.09 17% -0.02 -0.68 -0.07 0.03 -0.01 0.10 Adj. EPS (USD) -0.06 0.05 -0.56 -0.11 -0.07 -0.02 -0.68 -0.07 0.03 DPS (NOK) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 76 82 70 61 53 61 61 29 25 Gross cash 50 54 49 30 18 68 30 3 83 NIBD 26.2 27.5 20.4 31.4 34.9 -7.3 31.4 26.1 -58.3 NIBD/share (NOK) 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.7 -0.3 1.5 1.3 -2.8 Book equity/share (NOK) 15.0 15.6 11.0 10.3 9.6 14.7 10.0 9.2 9.5

Operating cash flow 10 44 50 7 3 14 111 31 113 Free cash flow -7 28 1 -11 -4 -183 10 5 84 Free cash flow/share (NOK) -0.3 1.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -8.1 0.5 0.3 4.1

Other key figures and assumptions Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e NOK/USD 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.0 8.1 8.8 9.0 9.0 Adj. # of shares 185.0 185.0 185.2 185.2 185.2 185.0 185.2 185.2 185.2 EPS (NOK) -0.5 0.5 -5.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.1 -6.0 -0.6 0.2 Adj. EPS (NOK) -0.5 0.5 -5.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.1 -6.0 -0.6 0.2

Baclog (USDm) 390 263 134 Capex (USDm) 17 16 27 19 34 79 26 29

Guidance: 2019 revenues: USD 455-465m 2019 EBITDA: USD 45-55m (before non-cash elements) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 37

PGS Reason: Preview of results PGS likely to be upbeat at CMD (30 Jan)

 …because it is the truth, but also because it has to Environ. Social. Govern.  Refinancing around the corner ABGSC ESG weight (%) 30% 40% 30%  Attractive risk/reward. Still a BUY, TP to NOK23 (21) Estimate changes (%) 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -0.6% 1.6% 3.3% PGS will say that the seismic market continues to improve EBIT (rep) 2.4% 2.9% 10.6% PGS will report Q4 and hold a CMD on Thursday, 30 January. Q4 revenue figures were pre-announced on 10 January – hence the focus EPS (rep) 4.4% 0.4% 8.6% will be on EBITDA and FCF. We expect USD 190m and USD 74m, Source: ABG Sundal Collier Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 1 8 .0 respectively. We expect management to say that they see continuous, gradual improvements in the seismic market for 2020, both in terms of Target price (21.0) 23.0 MC sales and contract day rates. This is a view we share. As normal, we think PGS is unlikely to give any guidance on 2020 revenues or margins, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway but will instead focus on costs, vessel allocation and MC investments. PGS.OL/PGS NO Therefore, the guidance is unlikely to bring any great surprises to the market. MCap (NOKm) 5,830 MCap (EURm) 591.1 Focus remains on refinancing – equity issue? Net debt (EURm) 1,008 On 10 January, the PGS CEO was quoted in local press (Dagens Næringsliv) saying that an equity issue cannot be ruled out if that is a “better solution”. This is clearly a change of tone vs. H2’19, when he said No. of shares (m) 324 that the plan was to refinance without an equity issue. We are not too Free float (%) 90.0 worried about the refinancing and think a strong FCF will lower the Av. daily volume (k) na required refinancing amount. Also, PGS probably has the option to sell its MC library or parts of it. If the company decides to carry out an equity Performance issue, we think the discount to market price would be limited as investors 160 are likely to flock to PGS once the balance sheet issue is fixed. 140 120 We still think the risk/reward is good 100 We feel confident that contract prices are improving significantly. The MC 80 market remains fairly strong. This should strongly assist PGS’ cash flow 60 and earnings going forward. Assuming an EV/book value for the MC 40

library of 2.0x, the value of all of PGS’s other assets is only USD 569m. 20

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May 18 May May 19 May vessels, which makes the vessel valuation look very low. Multiples for PGS OSE GI 2020e look attractive, even taking into account the debt level. 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 27.1 68.8 -8.5 Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 Source: FactSet

2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -21.8 5.5 4.3 Sales 839 835 880 1,034 1,118 EBITDA 374 516 552 698 760 P/E adj (x) -21.8 5.5 4.3 EBITDA margin (%) 44.6 61.8 62.7 67.5 67.9 P/BVPS (x) 1.07 0.90 0.74 EBIT adj -385 36 70 231 276 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 2.2 1.7 EBIT adj margin (%) -45.9 4.3 7.9 22.3 24.7 EV/EBIT adj (x) 26.0 6.7 4.8 Pretax profit -470 -52 -11 154 207 EV/sales (x) 2.06 1.49 1.18 EPS rep -1.55 -0.27 -0.09 0.37 0.47 ROE adj (%) -4.6 17.6 18.7 EPS adj -1.55 -0.27 -0.09 0.37 0.47 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) 34.8 40.4 32.3 Sales growth (%) 9.7 -0.5 5.4 17.5 8.2 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 34.8 40.4 32.3 EPS growth (%) -68.4 82.4 65.9 493.7 27.6 Net IB debt/EBITDA 2.0 1.2 0.8 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 2.0 1.2 0.8

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

PGS

PGS (FactSet) ABGSC vs. Con NEW ESTIMATES Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 245 142 216 234 288 237 835 880 1,034 1,118 998 1,083 EBITDA 155 67 135 160 190 153 516 552 698 760 656 700 EBITDA margins 63% 47% 63% 68% 66% 65% 62% 63% 67% 68% 66% 65% EBIT 48 -29 18 38 43 40 36 70 231 276 167 220 EBIT margins 20% n.a. 8% 16% 15% 17% 4% 8% 22% 25% 17% 20% Net profit -2 -52 -24 19 25 16 -92 -31 124 158 58 97 # avg. shares 339 339 339 339 339 339 339 339 339 339 EPS -0.01 -0.15 -0.07 0.06 0.07 0.05 -0.27 -0.09 0.37 0.47 0.20 0.28 Adj. EPS 0.00 -0.15 -0.06 0.05 0.07 0.05 -0.26 -0.09 0.36 0.46 DPS (NOK) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt (incl. leases) 1,219 1,415 1,332 1,298 1,276 1,254 1,219 1,276 1,206 1,150 Gross cash 118 133 76 78 129 159 118 129 336 502 NIBD 1,101 1,283 1,256 1,220 1,147 1,095 1,101 1,147 870 648 NIBD/share (NOK) 27.4 32.2 32.1 31.9 30.9 29.1 26.5 29.7 23.1 17.2 Book equity/share (NOK) 18.0 16.2 15.2 16.1 17.2 17.5 17.3 16.6 20.3 24.5

Operating cash flow 86 97 76 139 131 141 358 444 607 634 Free cash flow 29 64 15 37 74 52 8 190 277 221 Free cash flow/share (NOK) 0.7 1.6 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.4 0.2 4.9 7.4 5.9

Other key figures and assumptions Cons. Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Revenues by "product": MC pre-funding 34 30 67 95 71 69 283 263 277 296 272 281 MC late-sales 164 61 46 54 106 67 372 266 293 307 319 360 Total MC revenues 198 91 112 149 177 136 654 529 570 603 591 641 Contract revenues 41 44 94 76 104 89 150 319 415 462 375 405 Other revenues 6 7 9 9 7 11 31 32 49 53 37 41 Total revenues 245 142 216 234 288 237 835 880 1,034 1,118 998 1,083 YoY late-sales growth 132% -27% -34% -4% -36% 10% 58% -28% 10% 5% 15% 13%

Vessel allocation: Contract 23% 29% 45% 32% 55% 48% 23% 40% 39% 42% MC 14% 38% 43% 56% 24% 38% 44% 40% 43% 43% Steaming 15% 6% 9% 12% 13% 6% 11% 10% 10% 10% Yard 5% 0% 3% 0% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% Standby/stacked 43% 27% 0% 0% 4% 5% 21% 8% 5% 2% Sum 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Overall vessel utilisation 37% 67% 88% 88% 79% 86% 66% 81% 82% 85%

Other key figures: Gross cash costs -131 -137 -146 -150 -140 -150 -598 -573 -600 -640 MC investments (cash) -40 -62 -66 -76 -42 -66 -277 -246 -264 -282 -266 -273 MC investments (capitalised) -53 -84 -92 -108 -66 -91 -375 -351 -366 -378 Pre funding rate on cash inv. 85% 48% 102% 125% 170% 105% 102% 107% 105% 105% 102% 103% Pre funding rate on capitalised MC inv. 65% 36% 73% 88% 108% 76% 75% 75% 76% 78% MC sales/investments (capitalised) 3.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.75 1.51 1.56 1.59 MC sales/investments (cash) 4.9 1.5 1.7 2.0 4.2 2.1 2.36 2.15 2.16 2.14 2.22 2.34 MC amortisation charge (USDm) -69 -62 -90 -99 -119 -86 -362 -370 -359 -380 MC amortisation rate 35% 68% 80% 67% 67% 63% 55% 70% 63% 63% MC book value (IFRS) 655 675 676 652 600 605 655 600 607 605 MC book value (segment reporting) 525 547 549 558 506 511 525 506 513 511 MC book value /share (segment) 13.1 13.7 14.0 14.6 13.6 13.6 12.6 13.1 13.6 13.6 Total order backlog 163 238 300 336 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Capex (USDm) on top of MC inv. -19 -16 -20 -11 -15 -23 -76 -62 -91 -131 Marine contract EBIT margin -122% -74% 22% 23% 10% 16% -87% 5% 29% 38%

FCF before lease lease payments 29 64 15 37 74 52 8 190 277 221 Lease payments 0 -12 -11 -17 -10 -10 0 -44 -40 -30 FCF after lease payments 42 50 16 20 64 42 -1 157 237 191 FCFafter leases per share (NOK) 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.1 0.0 4.1 6.3 5.1

Lease liability (incl. in gross debt) 231 221 204 194 184 194 154 124 NIBD (excl. Leases) 1,101 1,052 1,036 1,016 952 910 1,110 952 715 524 NIBD (excl. Leases) per share (NOK) 27.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 25.6 24.2 26.7 24.7 19.0 13.9

Also: Reported tax rate 111% -1% -70% 24% 15% 25% -78% n.m. 20% 24% NOK/USD 8.42 8.50 8.65 8.86 9.11 9.00 8.13 8.78 9.00 9.00 EPS (NOK) 0.0 -1.3 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 -2.2 -0.8 3.3 4.2 Adj. EPS (NOK) 0.0 -1.3 -0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 -2.1 -0.8 3.3 4.2

Covenants: "Total leverage ratio" * 2.58 2.85 2.85 2.55 2.31 1.85 2.58 2.45 1.73 1.51 Max allowed "total leverage ratio" 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 *: Gross debt divided by adj. EBITDA less “non-prefunded MC investments”

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 39

Polarcus Reason: Preview of results Q4 was probably satisfactory

 Q4’19e EBITDA USD 7m (Q4’18 USD 2m)

 Management likely to be fairly optimistic about 2020 Estimate changes (%)  BUY rating reiterated, TP cut to NOK 2.0 (2.5) 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.0% 2.9% 0.7% Q4 is usually soft, but Q4’19 was probably satisfactory EBIT (rep) 0.0% 2.4% 2.6% On 6 January, Polarcus reported that Q4’19 vessel utilisation was 71%. EPS (rep) 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Utilisation was hurt by 13% transit time for two vessels that were moving Source: ABG Sundal Collier from a highly profitable contract offshore eastern Russia. Nevertheless, Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 1.3 with contract prices up roughly 20-30% y-o-y, we still expect a respectable Q4 EBITDA of USD 7m – helped by a well-funded MC Target price (2.5) 2.0 project. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway Outlook comment most likely positive PLCS.OL/PLCS NO After five dreadful years for the seismic vessel owners, 2019 saw a significant uptick in contract rates. It seems that contract rates are up +/- MCap (NOKm) 653 30% y-o-y in 2019. Most indications are that rates will continue up in MCap (EURm) 66.2 2020 – our assumption is for a 15% y-o-y increase. We expect that Net debt (EURm) 279 Polarcus has now booked all of its Q1’20 capacity and most of Q2’20 at prices up y-o-y. No. of shares (m) 514 Attractive risk/reward despite high debt level Free float (%) 85.0 Polarcus has a net debt position USD 368 about USD 50-60m (the range Av. daily volume (k) na depends if whether or not the one stacked vessel is included), which is not a very high level relative to the average construction costs of ~USD Next event Q4 report: 27 Feb 150m. The average EV per vessel of about USD 70m is 28% below our Performance estimated “age adjusted construction costs”. The 2020e and 2021e EV/EBITDA of 6.2x and 3.5x, respectively, look attractive. 160 140

120 Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 100 [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 80 60 40 20

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May 18 May May 19 May Polarcus OSE GI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 5.3 10.1 1.3 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -17.3 2.0 1.4 Sales 179 202 296 279 291 P/E adj (x) -17.3 2.0 1.4 EBITDA 41 29 62 98 114 EBITDA margin (%) 23.1 14.4 21.1 35.1 39.2 P/BVPS (x) 0.99 0.67 0.45 EBIT adj -137 -20 28 64 77 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 3.5 2.5 EBIT adj margin (%) -76.5 -9.8 9.5 22.9 26.4 EV/EBIT adj (x) 13.7 5.4 3.8 Pretax profit -172 -51 -4 36 52 EV/sales (x) 1.31 1.24 1.00 EPS rep -1.12 -0.10 -0.01 0.07 0.10 ROE adj (%) -5.6 39.2 38.4 EPS adj -1.12 -0.10 -0.01 0.07 0.10 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) 29.8 55.8 73.6 Sales growth (%) -26.5 12.9 46.2 -5.5 4.2 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 29.8 55.8 73.6 EPS growth (%) -3,041.7 91.2 91.6 951.8 45.2 Net IB debt/EBITDA 5.0 2.8 1.9 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 5.0 2.8 1.9

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Polarcus

Key estimates POLARCUS Consensus ABG vs. (Factset) (Factset) cons. NEW ESTIMATESNEW ESTIMATES Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement % Net sales 58 67 65 103 60 67 68 -11% 202 296 279 291 272 301 EBITDA 2 10 16 30 7 16 8 -18% 29 62 98 114 82 88 EBITDA margins 4% 15% 25% 29% 11% 25% 12% 14% 21% 35% 39% 30% 29% EBIT -6 3 9 22 -5 7 -1 390% -20 28 64 77 51 61 EBIT margins n.a. 4% 13% 21% n.a. 10% n.a. n.a. 10% 23% 26% 19% 20% Net profit -13 -5 1 14 -13 0 -9 46% -51 -4 36 52 18 33 # avg. shares 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 EPS -0.03 -0.01 0.00 0.03 -0.03 0.00 -0.02 -0.10 -0.01 0.07 0.10 0.03 0.07 Adj. EPS -0.03 -0.01 0.00 0.03 -0.03 0.00 -0.10 -0.01 0.07 0.10 DPS (USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 336 340 339 340 337 329 336 337 307 277 Gross cash 31 29 24 35 26 20 24 31 26 37 61 NIBD 305 311 315 305 311 310 305 311 270 216 NIBD/share (NOK) 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.4 4.8 5.3 4.7 3.8 Book equity/share (NOK) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.9

Operating cash flow 11 6 5 28 1 12 5 11 40 70 90 Free cash flow 9 5 3 20 -7 2 3 -90 22 41 54 Free cash flow/share (NOK) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -1.4 0.4 0.7 0.9

Other key figures and assumptions Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Vessel utilisation 96% 92% 72% 83% 71% 84% 88% 80% 85% 84% Real gross debt (USDm) 413 417 406 403 400 393 413 400 370 340 Real NIBD (USD) 382 388 382 368 375 373 382 375 334 279 Real NIBD/share (NOK) 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.0 6.4 5.8 4.9

Revenue split: Pre-funding revenues 0 0 0 0 8 8 14 8 12 10 Late-sales 0 0 4 0 2 0 5 6 4 3 Total MC revenues 1 0 4 0 10 8 19 13 16 13 Contract revenues and other 58 67 58 103 51 59 183 278 263 278 Total revenues 58 67 65 103 60 67 202 296 279 291

Tax rate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NOK/USD 8.42 8.58 8.65 8.86 9.00 9.00 8.13 8.77 9.00 9.00 EPS (NOK) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 0.63 0.92

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 41

Seabird Reason: Preview of results Q4 was most likely soft

 Q4e EBITDA USD -3m

 Few contract awards lately

 High risk, but very low vessel values justifies a BUY Estimate changes (%) 2019e 2020e 2021e Focus on cash situation Sales -0.9% -4.9% -3.8% We expect SeaBird to report Q4 revenues of USD 11m and EBITDA of EBIT (rep) -12.4% -52.9% -47.8% USD -3m. The gross cash position as of Q3’19 was USD 6m and we EPS (rep) -12.0% -56.3% -49.1% expect that as of Q4’19 it has shrunk to USD 3m. Source: ABG Sundal Collier Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 0.6 Few contracts won lately, changes ongoing in SBX SBX has not won any contracts since 12 November, which means that Target price (0.8) 0.8 the H1’20 backlog is weak. We hope to hear more about the prospects for work near-term. Over the last six months, SBX has announced Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway changes of CEO, the chairman and the CFO. It is clear that the company SBX.OL/SBX NO is in the middle of big internal changes. MCap (NOKm) 323 The market should improve, valuation is potentially low MCap (EURm) 32.8 We feel confident that fundamentals are improving and SBX should also Net debt (EURm) 2 benefit from this going forward. However, most important for the share in the near-term are new contracts and improved operational performance. No. of shares (m) 539 The current EV of only ~USD 37m means that the implicit value per Free float (%) 100.0 vessel is very low and so are traditional multiples if our estimates prove Av. daily volume (k) na to be right.

Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 Performance [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20

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May 18 May May 19 May Seabird OSE GI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 14.8 -6.8 -59.8 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -2.1 20.9 7.2 Sales 19 20 49 60 68 P/E adj (x) -2.1 20.9 7.2 EBITDA -26 -5 -3 12 17 P/BVPS (x) 0.68 0.66 0.60 EBITDA margin (%) -133.0 -26.5 -6.8 20.1 25.5 EV/EBITDA (x) -11.5 2.9 1.8 EBIT adj -46 -12 -17 2 5 EV/EBIT adj (x) -2.3 17.2 5.7 EBIT adj margin (%) -241.8 -63.7 -34.7 3.4 7.9 EV/sales (x) 0.79 0.58 0.45 Pretax profit -51 -14 -17 2 5 ROE adj (%) -37.7 3.2 8.8 EPS rep -0.81 -0.04 -0.03 0.00 0.01 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 EPS adj -0.81 -0.04 -0.03 0.00 0.01 FCF yield (%) -80.3 11.0 11.2 Sales growth (%) -73.3 2.2 151.8 21.2 14.0 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -80.3 11.0 11.2 EPS growth (%) 17.3 94.5 29.2 110.2 190.7 Net IB debt/EBITDA -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0.6 -0.2 -0.4

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Seabird

Key estimates SeaBird (Factset) FactSet ABGSC NEW ESTIMATES Cons. Cons.

USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e vs. cons. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 7 12 9 16 11 14 13 -15% 20 49 60 68 73 87 EBITDA -1 3 -2 -2 -3 1 0 2618% -5 -3 12 17 20 34 EBITDA margins n.a. 22% n.a. n.a. n.a. 5% n.a. n.a. n.a. 20% 26% EBIT -4 0 -7 -5 -5 -2 -3 86% -12 -17 2 5 10 23 EBIT margins n.a. 1% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3% 8% Net profit -4 0 -7 -5 -5 -2 -4 29% -13 -17 2 5 8 22 # avg. Shares (mill.) 284 284 516 539 539 539 284 539 539 539 EPS -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 n.m. -0.05 -0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 Adj. EPS -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.05 -0.03 0.00 0.01 DPS (NOK) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Gross cash 6 4 19 6 3 1 6 3 7 11 NIBD -1 0 -14 -1 2 4 -1 2 -2 -6 NIBD/share (NOK) -0.04 0.01 -0.24 -0.01 0.03 0.06 -0.04 0.03 -0.03 -0.10 Book equity/share (NOK) 1.11 1.12 1.02 0.97 0.90 0.87 1.07 0.87 0.92 1.01

Operating cash flow -1 -1 -3 -4 0 0 -11 -8 11 18 Free cash flow -22 -1 -12 -13 -3 -2 -34 -30 4 4 Free cash flow/share (NOK) -0.65 -0.05 -0.20 -0.22 -0.04 -0.03 -0.98 -0.48 0.07 0.07

Other key figures and assumptions Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e EPS (NOK) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.37 -0.28 0.03 0.09 Adj. EPS (NOK) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.37 -0.28 0.03 0.09

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Implicit vessel values are very low Vessel name USDm Estimated value of vessels: Low Mid case High Implicit values Owned vessels: Voyager Explorer shallow water 2D/3D or source 7 12 17 2 Osprey Explorer 2D, source vessel 5 10 15 4 Harrier Explorer 2D, source vessel 5 10 15 4 Eagle Explorer source/2D/max 6 str. 3D 14 19 25 7 Aquila Explorer 2D, source vessel 0 0 0 0 Petrel Explorer (BOA Thalassa)"EM vessel" 7 11 20 12 Fulmar Explror (BOA Galatea)"EM vessel" - to be converted to source 15 19 30 8 Sum 58 89 132 37 NIBD (USDm) as of Q4'19e: 2 2 2 2 Equity value 56 86 130 35 Per share (NOK) 0.9 1.4 2.1 0.57

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 43

TGS Nopec Reason: Preview of results Focus on guidance

 Q4 revenues have been pre-announced

 2020 estimates are not aggressive

 We stick to our BUY rating and NOK 300 TP Estimate changes (%) 2019e 2020e 2021e Estimates down after Q4 pre-announcement Sales -4.9% -3.2% -2.8% On 9 January, TGS pre-announced Q4 revenues (as it always does after EBIT (rep) -10.6% -3.5% -4.2% the end of the quarter) of USD 230m. We had expected USD 270m and EPS (rep) -10.8% -3.4% -4.3% have adjusted our 2019 estimates accordingly. We have also lowered Source: ABG Sundal Collier both our 2020e and 2021e revenues by ~3%. The key unknown Q4 data Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 259.0 to look for is the cash flow and net cash position. We forecast Q4 FCF of USD 114m (~NOK 9/share) and a net cash position of ~NOK 25/share, Target price (300.0) 300.0 as of Q4. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway We see 2020e MC investment up 8% y-o-y (USD 461m) TGS.OL/TGS NO TGS will publish 2020 guidance when it reports Q4 on 12 Feb. The key numbers to look for are: 1) MC investments; we expect USD 461m, MCap (NOKm) 30,797 which is up 8% y-oy, 2) pre-funding ratio; we expect ~44%, which is MCap (EURm) 3,122.8 partly driven by a big (USD 100m+) MC investment at a high pre-funding Net debt (EURm) -295 ratio in Argentina. The most important driver for cash flow and estimates in TGS is late-sales. TGS does not guide on this number. We estimate No. of shares (m) 119 8% y-oy growth in 2020, which should be driven by the strong increase in Free float (%) 100.0 MC investments in 2019, with spill over effect on late-sales in 2020, plus Av. daily volume (k) na some general, slow improvements in global exploration activity. Mind also that TGS benefitted from a high (USD 50-70m) transfer fee in 2019, which should be taken into account when looking at the y-oy figure. Performance

190 Estimates are not aggressive 180 170 Conventional multiples look attractive, e.g. a 2020e P/E of 12.0x and a 160 150 2020e dividend yield of 5.3%. A 2019e net cash position of NOK 140 130 25/share (~10% of share price) must be taken into account when looking 120 at these multiples. Our favourite multiple remains the EV/book value. 110 100 This multiple is now ~3.4x, which compares to a historical trading-range 90 80

of 2.5x-4.5x, which is equivalent to a share price range of NOK 190-330,

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May 17 May May 18 May i.e. the share is currently in the middle of its historical trading range. 19 May TGS Nopec OSE GI

Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 87 1m 3m 12m [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 Absolute (%) -5.2 12.2 3.8 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 17.5 11.4 11.2 Sales 492 622 783 978 1,046 P/E adj (x) 17.5 11.4 11.2 EBITDA 409 517 640 830 896 P/BVPS (x) 2.07 1.94 1.89 EBITDA margin (%) 83.2 83.2 81.7 84.8 85.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.9 3.7 3.4 EBIT adj 97 172 253 388 394 EV/EBIT adj (x) 12.4 7.9 7.7 EBIT adj margin (%) 19.8 27.7 32.2 39.7 37.7 EV/sales (x) 4.00 3.13 2.89 Pretax profit 100 179 257 396 403 ROE adj (%) 13.5 17.6 17.2 EPS rep 0.74 1.35 1.66 2.57 2.61 Dividend yield (%) 3.7 5.5 7.5 EPS adj 0.74 1.35 1.66 2.57 2.61 FCF yield (%) 6.4 7.7 8.5 Sales growth (%) 7.9 26.3 26.0 24.9 6.9 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 6.4 7.7 8.5 EPS growth (%) 243.8 82.0 22.8 54.3 1.8 Net IB debt/EBITDA -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

TGS Nopec

Key estimates TGS Nopec (FactSet) NEW ESTIMATES Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 188 110 166 277 230 199 456 492 622 783 978 1,046 982 1,055 EBITDA 157 88 140 229 183 168 363 409 517 640 830 896 825 878 EBIT 68 17 43 94 99 78 53 97 172 253 388 394 383 435 EBIT margins 36% 15% 26% 34% 43% 39% 12% 20% 28% 32% 40% 38% 39% 41% Net profit 61 18 27 73 80 61 22 76 138 198 305 311 293 326 # avg. shares 102 103 103 119 119 119 102 102 102 119 119 119 EPS 0.60 0.17 0.26 0.66 0.68 0.52 0.22 0.74 1.35 1.66 2.57 2.61 2.52 2.75 Adj. EPS 0.59 0.17 0.28 0.68 0.76 0.51 0.22 0.73 1.34 1.92 2.55 2.60 DPS (NOK) 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.6 5.0 5.3 6.5 9.5 14.4 19.8 11.5 14.0 EPS (NOK) 5.0 1.5 2.3 5.8 6.2 4.6 6.1 11.0 14.6 23.1 23.5

Key BS and CF figures Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Gross interest bearing debt 0 20 20 17 17 17 0 0 0 17 17 17 Gross cash 274 390 354 265 347 395 191 250 274 347 425 459 NIBD -274 -370 -335 -248 -330 -378 -191 -250 -274 -330 -408 -442 NIBD/share (NOK) -22.5 -31.0 -28.2 -18.5 -25.3 -28.6 -15.8 -20.3 -21.9 -24.4 -30.9 -33.4 Book equity/share (NOK) 104.0 105.1 104.3 120.9 128.0 127.5 96.7 97.5 101.3 123.7 135.2 138.9

Operating cash flow 62 209 60 71 191 212 324 461 389 530 736 806 Free cash flow -28 143 6 -27 114 96 84 109 100 236 268 296 Free cash flow/share (NOK) -2.3 12.0 0.5 -2.0 8.7 7.2 7.0 8.8 8.0 17.5 20.3 22.4 Cons. Cons. Other key figures and assumptions Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Order backlog 63 112 130 117 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. NOK/USD 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.0 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.8 9.0 9.0 EPS (NOK) 4.9 1.5 2.4 6.1 6.9 4.6 1.8 6.1 10.9 16.9 23.0 23.4 FactSet Proforma (TGS+SPU) key figures: Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e Pre-funding revenues 36 27 43 61 30 52 124 173 115 161 204 217 217 Late-sales 203 125 167 212 198 143 380 431 634 702 758 812 756 Total MC revenues 239 152 210 273 228 194 504 604 749 864 962 1,029 973 Proprietary revenues 3 5 4 4 2 4 7 8 15 16 16 16 Total revenues 242 157 214 277 230 199 525 611 757 878 978 1,046 989 Opex -43 -30 -36 -47 -47 -31 -109 -137 -160 -148 -149 -164 EBITDA 199 127 178 230 183 168 502 620 718 830 896 825 Amorization and impairments -102 -90 -120 -131 -80 -86 -411 -402 -421 -423 -484 Other depreciation -1 -8 -4 -5 -4 -5 -9 -12 -21 -18 -18 EBIT 96 29 54 94 99 78 81 206 276 388 394 383

MC investments (excl. risk sharing inv.) 72 65 130 158 75 114 345 400 301 428 461 503 470 MC book value 888 869 893 889 884 913 n.a. 888 884 921 941 Sales/investment ratio 3.32 2.34 1.62 1.73 3.03 1.70 1.46 1.51 2.49 2.02 2.09 2.05 Pre-funding rate 50% 42% 33% 39% 40% 45% 43% 38% 38% 44% 43% 46% YoY total revenues 19% -5% 17% 61% -4% 28% 16% 24% 16% 11% 7% 11% YoY late-sales 13% -9% 6% 56% -2% 14% -7% 13% 47% 11% 8% 7% 6% Amortization rate 43% 59% 57% 48% 35% 44% 68% 54% 49% 44% 47% Amortizatin charge 102 90 120 131 80 86 411 402 421 423 484 YoY MC investments 13% 23% 83% 50% 5% 76% -49% 16% -25% 42% 8% 9%

2019 guidance (incl. proforma SPU): MC investments +~40% YoY (exc. risk sharing agreements), i.e. ~USD421m Pre-funding (ex. risk sharing agreements) 35-40% Amortization charge: slightly above 2018 level Q4'19 revenues ~USD230m.

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 45

Oil & Oil Services

Drilling market & company overview Contracting activity in 2019 (measured by number of new contracts) has increased by ~36% for floaters and ~19% for jackups. Contracted floater rig-years increased by ~69%, but remain at depressed levels from historical perspective due to short contract durations. Contracted jackup rig-years increased by ~48%, reaching historical average, with average duration surpassing historical levels. Thus, the jackup market recovery continues to be ahead of floaters.

2019 offshore drilling contracting stats FLOATERS Q4'19 Q4'18 Δ (%) Q4 Avg Δ (%) 2019 YTD 2018 YTD Δ (%) YTD Avg Δ (%) New contracts 35 33 6% 30 16% 124 91 36% 92 34% Contracted rig-years 23 20 12% 40 -44% 79 47 69% 123 -36% Duration (mth) 8 7 16 8 6 16 Lead-time (mth) 4 6 8 5 5 9

JACKUPS Q4'19 Q4'18 Δ (%) Q4 Avg Δ (%) 2019 YTD 2018 YTD Δ (%) YTD Avg Δ (%) New contracts 80 79 1% 82 -2% 164 138 19% 230 -29% Contracted rig-years 121 75 61% 71 71% 204 138 48% 205 0% Duration (mth) 18 11 11 15 12 12 Lead-time (mth) 3 3 3 3 2 3

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IHS Petrodata, company data

Jackup market recovery leading the way Floater contracting through Q4: Rig-years Jackup contracting through Q4: Rig-years 300 350

250 300 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

New contracts Options AVG new (157) New contracts Options AVG new (205)

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IHS Petrodata, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IHS Petrodata, company data

The number of contracted floaters is at 156 rigs (up ~7% y-o-y and from the trough), while number of contracted jackups is at 384 rigs (up ~13% y-o-y and ~23% from the trough).

Floater rig count up ~7% from trough Jackup rig count up ~23% from trough

Floater supply-demand Jackup supply-demand 350 600 300 500 250 400 200 300 150 200 100 50 100 0 0 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Total contracted On contract working Total supply Total contracted On contract working Total supply

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IHS Petrodata, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IHS Petrodata, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 46

Oil & Oil Services

Total utilization is at ~66% for floaters (up ~7pp y-o-y and 13pp from trough) and ~74% for jackups (up ~8pp y-o-y and 15pp from trough). Marketed utilization is at ~80% for floaters (up ~6pp y-o-y and 10pp from trough) and ~85% for jackups (up ~10pp y-o-y and 17pp from trough).

Floater utilization up ~7pp y-o-y Jackup utilization up ~8pp y-o-y

Floater utilization (%) Jackup utilization (%)

100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Marketed Utilization Total Utilization Marketed Utilization Total Utilization

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IHS Petrodata, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IHS Petrodata, company data

Dayrates have finally started to move upwards, with several asset classes approaching cash break-even levels. Modern harsh-environment floaters continue to lead the way. Estimated leading edge dayrates (USDkpd) 400 100% 350

95% 300 PJU HE

250 90% HE UDW PJU

200 85%

DW / MW HE DW USDkpd 150 UDW DS 7G 80% Marketed Utilization Marketed JU 100 UDW 75% 50

70% 0 Cash opex Cash break even Newbuild parity Super profit

UDW JU HE DW DW / PJU PJU HE UDW DSHE UDW MW 7G

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IHS Petrodata, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IHS Petrodata, company data

With the dayrate recovery lagging expectations and potential asset buyers being liquidity-restrained, estimated second-hand values have fallen by ~10-20%. Ultra-harsh- environment jackups recorded the only rise. 7G UDW drillships and premium jackups are now quoted at ~55% and ~63% of age-adjusted replacement cost, respectively. Floater values down 10% y-o-y Jackup values down ~20% y-o-y Second-hand floater values Second-hand jackup values 600 400 341-528 350 224-345 500 300 400 250

300 154-279 200 USDm 130-232 USDm 138-214 122-149 150 200 72-104 100 52-93 100 3-48 50 2-37

0 0 7G UDW DS 6G UDW DS UDW 6G HE SS DW / MW PJU UHE PJU HE PJU high spec PJU low spec JU

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Bassoe, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Bassoe, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 47

Awilco Drilling

Awilco Drilling Reason: Preview of results Second milestone payment approaching

 Key tasks - contracts and funding

 The sleeping beauty provision provides flexibility

 Next event - Q1'20 milestone payment Estimate changes (%) 2019e 2020e 2021e Key tasks - contracts and funding Sales 5.8% -10.0% 0.0% AWDR is facing two key tasks related to its two newbuilds: secure EBIT (rep) 23.4% -8.9% 0.0% bankable contracts and secure financing while limiting dilution. Despite EPS (rep) 21.5% -7.5% 0.0% the obvious funding need, which is currently weighing on the share, Source: ABG Sundal Collier AWDR has: 1) backing from its main shareholder and 2) flexibility in the Share price (NOK) 08/01/2020 14.5 sleeping-beauty provision, which enables delivery postponement by up to one year (exercisable by mid-2020), potentially also including the Target price (35.0) 35.0 milestone payment. The length of the contract will dictate the amount of debt available, which in turn dictates the amount of equity needed (and Oil & Gas Drilling, Norway likely raised in stages), with issue price as another variable. We believe AWDR.OL/AWDR NO that AWDR’s main shareholder has the experience, financial strength and flexibility to get the timing of the cycle right once again. We reiterate MCap (NOKm) 771 BUY, with an unchanged TP of NOK 35. MCap (EURm) 78.3 Net debt (EURm) -36 Next event – Q1’20 milestone payment With a cash balance of ~USD 41m, the next financing milestone is the No. of shares (m) 53.2 second instalment on Rig#1 of ~USD 43m in Q1’20. We think it could be Free float (%) 56.7 partially financed through a shareholder loan, equity, or potentially Av. daily volume (k) 24.0 postponed if the sleeping beauty provision is exercised by then. Assuming a net mobilisation cost of ~USD 25m, we estimate current implied value of ~USD 440m per newbuild. Performance

160 Seasoned owner transforming the company 140 Backed by the AWilhelmsen Group (~37%), which has an extensive track 120 record in the offshore industry, Awilco Drilling is in the process of 100 transforming its rig fleet. Through an opportunistic move, the company 80 has ordered two harsh environment semis with scheduled delivery in 60 40 Q1’21 and Q1’22, with two more independent newbuild options left. In 20

addition, it has two UK-compliant 3G mid-water semis; WilPhoenix

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May 17 May May 18 May (currently idle) and WilHunter (cold stacked). 19 May Awilco Drilling OSE GI

Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 1.4 1.8 -46.7 OSE GI (%) 4.3 7.7 10.6 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -14.0 -4.9 -4.4 Sales 132 57 39 31 62 P/E adj (x) -14.0 -4.9 -4.4 EBITDA 95 20 4 -8 20 P/BVPS (x) 0.32 0.35 0.38 EBITDA margin (%) 72.0 35.7 11.0 -25.5 32.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 -13.0 25.8 EBIT adj 34 -18 -7 -20 9 EV/EBIT adj (x) -6.8 -5.3 60.6 EBIT adj margin (%) 25.9 -32.3 -18.0 -63.0 14.0 EV/sales (x) 1.22 3.32 8.46 Pretax profit 29 -21 -7 -23 -26 ROE adj (%) -2.3 -6.9 -8.3 EPS rep 0.71 -0.47 -0.12 -0.33 -0.38 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 EPS adj 2.21 -0.47 -0.12 -0.33 -0.38 FCF yield (%) -50.7 -60.9 -474.7 Sales growth (%) 38.3 -57.1 -31.4 -19.3 99.3 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -50.7 -60.9 -474.7 EPS growth (%) 1.3 -166.5 75.1 -185.3 -12.3 Net IB debt/EBITDA -9.3 -1.8 21.5 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -9.3 -1.8 21.5

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 48

Awilco Drilling

Detailed forecast table Awilco Drilling Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Dev. Dev. Dev. Income Statement FactSet FactSet FactSet Net sales 10 9 10 10 9 0 10 -11% 57 39 31 62 36 100 14% -12% -38% Opex -6 -9 -8 -8 -9 -8 -10 -36 -34 -39 -42 -34 -65 EBITDA 5 0 3 3 0 -8 1 n.m 20 4 -8 20 1 35 n.m n.m -42% EBITDA margins 45% n.m. 24% 25% n.m. n.m. 36% 11% n.a. 33% EBIT -24 -3 0 0 -3 -11 -2 n.m -18 -7 -20 9 -10 12 n.m n.m -27% EBIT margins n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.a. n.m. n.m. 14% Net profit -24 -2 0 -1 -3 -10 -2 n.m -23 -6 -18 -21 -12 6 n.m n.m n.m EPS -0.49 -0.05 -0.01 -0.02 -0.05 -0.17 -0.04 n.m -0.47 -0.12 -0.33 -0.38 -0.17 0.01 n.m n.m n.m DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n.m 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n.m n.m n.m

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 50 500 Gross cash 64 43 42 41 40 44 64 40 36 62 NIBD -64 -43 -42 -41 -40 6 -64 -40 14 438 NIBD/share -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 0.1 -1.3 -0.7 0.3 8.0 Book equity/share 5.3 5.7 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.3 5.2 4.7 4.3

Operating cash flow 0 2 1 0 1 -1 28 5 -7 -12 Free cash flow -2 -41 0 -1 -1 -45 -18 -44 -54 -424 Free cash flow/share -0.1 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -7.8

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Contracts and dayrates

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

NAV sensitivity (NOK per share) Debt per newbuild (USDm) 18.9 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 15 18 19 19 19 20 21 22 20 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 25 27 28 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 33

(NOK/sh) 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Avg. issue price Avg. issue 40 38 38 38 38 38 37 37 45 41 41 41 40 40 40 39

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 49

Borr Drilling Reason: Preview of results Covenants waived, new CFO in place

 Shipyard discussions continue

 New contracts remain key priority Estimate changes (%)  We expect Q4 EBITDA of USD 18m 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% New contracts remain key priority EBIT (rep) 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% Slower than expected improvement in dayrates has challenged Borr’s EPS (rep) 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% ability to put all of its rigs to work, with activation capex of ~USD 15m/rig. Source: ABG Sundal Collier We estimate a current implied value of ~USD 106m/premium jackup and Share price (NOK) 09/01/2020 71.9 NAV of NOK 77 per share (reflecting a ~30% y-o-y decline in second- hand jackup values). With jackup market fundamentals moving in the Target price (100.0) 100.0 right direction and dayrates finally rising towards cash break-even levels, we keep our BUY rating with a TP of NOK 100 (implying a value equal to Oil & Gas Drilling, Norway Borr’s average acquisition price of ~USD 120m/rig). BDRILL.OL/BDRILL NO

Global jackup rig count up ~23% from trough MCap (NOKm) 7,967 The jackup market fundamentals continued to improve throughout 2019, MCap (EURm) 807.9 with contracted rig-years increasing by 48% y-o-y to 204, reaching the Net debt (EURm) 1,446 historical average level. The contracted jackup rig count is 384 (up ~13% y-o-y and ~23% from trough). Total utilisation is at ~74% (up ~8pp y-o-y No. of shares (m) 111 and 15pp from trough) and marketed utilisation is at ~85% (up ~10pp y- Free float (%) 77.0 o-y and 17pp from trough). Borr’s contract coverage is currently at ~47% Av. daily volume (k) 307.5 for 2020 and ~14% for 2021 and putting more rigs to work should remain the company’s key priority. Available liquidity ex-Tivar financing and Next event Q4 report: 28 Feb restricted cash is ~USD 110m. Based on our assumption of five more rigs activated over the next 12 months, we estimate Borr’s operations to Performance be fairly cash flow neutral in 2020. 160 140 Covenants waived, shipyard discussions continue 120 As indicated in its Q3’19 report, Borr has secured a covenant waiver from 100 its banks lasting into 2021, while it continues discussions with the 80 shipyard regarding postponement of three 2020 newbuilds. While two of 60 these have take-out financing from the shipyard in place, Tivar requires 40

~USD 100m in cash outlay as it only has ~USD 50m in bank debt in 20

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May 17 May May 18 May place. In early January, Francis Millet was appointed as Borr’s new CFO, 19 May Borr Drilling OSE GI bringing 30 years of experience from Schlumberger to the role. The Q4 results will be reported on 28 February. 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 16.0 46.7 -38.6 Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 [email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -6.4 -8.6 -22.2 Sales 0 184 346 544 695 P/E adj (x) -7.3 -8.6 -22.2 EBITDA -57 -66 4 104 198 P/BVPS (x) 1.31 0.74 0.76 EBITDA margin (%) -57,123.0 -35.8 1.1 19.2 28.5 EBIT adj -106 -170 -128 -12 60 EV/EBITDA (x) 850.5 30.9 15.9 EBIT adj margin (%) ######## -92.3 -37.0 -2.3 8.6 EV/EBIT adj (x) -26.1 -259.8 52.4 Pretax profit -89 -227 -262 -100 -36 EV/sales (x) 9.66 5.92 4.53 EPS rep -0.33 -0.44 -1.26 -0.94 -0.37 ROE adj (%) -16.6 -8.2 -3.4 EPS adj -0.23 -0.39 -1.11 -0.94 -0.37 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -31.6 -78.6 8.2 Sales growth (%) na 183,600.0 88.4 57.2 27.8 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -31.6 -78.6 8.2 EPS growth (%) high -34.6 -186.4 25.6 61.2 Net IB debt/EBITDA 411.9 22.3 11.4 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 411.9 22.3 11.4

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Borr Drilling

Detailed forecast table Borr Drilling Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement FactSet FactSet FactSet Revenues 55 52 87 103 105 117 114 -8% 184 346 544 695 584 837 Opex -74 -65 -92 -99 -87 -93 -89 -250 -342 -440 -497 -443 -537 EBITDA -19 -13 -5 4 18 24 25 -27% -66 4 104 198 141 301 EBITDA margins n.m. n.m. n.m. 4% 17% 21% 22% n.m. 1% 19% 28% 24% 36% EBIT -51 -56 -37 -26 -10 -3 -8 n.m -170 -128 -12 60 13 145 EBIT margins n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 9% 2% 17% PTP -110 -54 -101 -75 -32 -22 -38 n.m -227 -262 -100 -36 -82 43 Net profit -111 -54 -103 -79 -33 -23 -41 n.m -229 -269 -104 -40 -97 13 EPS (USD) -0.2 -0.1 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 n.m -0.4 -2.1 -0.94 -0.37 -1.3 0.0 Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 1,175 1,415 1,573 1,586 1,672 1,758 1,175 1,672 2,343 2,287 Gross cash 28 59 107 117 130 117 91 130 95 113 NIBD 1,147 1,357 1,466 1,469 1,542 1,642 1,083 1,542 2,247 2,174 NIBD/share (USD) 2.2 2.6 14.0 13.3 13.9 14.8 2.1 7.2 20.3 19.6 Book equity/share (USD) 2.9 2.8 13.1 12.2 11.9 11.7 3.0 6.2 11.0 10.6

Operating cash flow -41 -14 -55 -11 -7 -1 -135 -86 -8 88 Free cash flow -60 -186 -107 -49 -73 -100 -688 -420 -705 73 Free cash flow/share (USD) -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.3 -2.0 -6.4 0.7

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Contracts and dayrates Dayrates (USDkpd) Rig type Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Frigg JU NEW HE 80 80 80 80 75 75 75 80 80 80 80 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Ran JU NEW HE 1 1 1 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Atla JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Balder JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Idun JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Mist JU NEW 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 77 77 77 77 77 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Norve JU NEW 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Odin JU NEW 1 1 1 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 110 110 110 110 110 110 Saga JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 99 99 99 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Skald JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Tivar JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Vale JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Var JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Galar JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 110 110 110 110 110 Gerd JU NEW 1 1 1 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Gersemi JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Grid JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Groa JU NEW 1 1 1 1 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Gunnlod JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Gyme JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Natt JU NEW 1 1 1 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Njord JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 110 110 110 110 110 Prospector 1 JU NEW HE 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 1 1 99 99 99 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Prospector 5 JU NEW HE 66 66 66 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 110 110 110 110 110 B391 JU 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 B152 JU 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 50 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 Dhabi II JU 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 Thor JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 MSS1 3G SS MW UK 101 101 101 130 130 101 101 101 101 101 101 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 Hild JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Heimdal JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Hermod JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Huldra JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Heidrun JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Contract Option Mobe/Yard 1=stacked

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Valuation Average asset values NAV 120 300 18 100 250 110 80 200

60 150

USDm 258 88 40 NOK/share 100

20 50 77

0 0 AVG premium F&G JU-2000 Standard jackup MW SS GAV B-log adv. NIBD Remaining NAV jackup capex

Source: Bassoe, ABG Sundal Collier, company data Source: Bassoe, ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 51

Maersk Drilling Reason: Recommendation change Keep the faith – up to BUY

 Clear dividend strategy would be a strong signal…

 ... moving DRLCO closer to the top of the pyramid

 Up to BUY, TP DKK 610 Estimate changes (%) 2019e 2020e 2021e Faith can move mountains (and share prices) Sales -2.4% -0.3% -2.1% After reiterating its full-year EBITDA guidance of ~USD 400m in its Q3’19 EBIT (rep) -118.4% 21.9% -11.6% report, the focus in Maersk’s Q4’19 report (5 February) will be on EPS (rep) -51.6% 86.7% -20.7% guidance for 2020. We currently forecast 2020 EBITDA of USD 486m Source: ABG Sundal Collier (consensus at USD 456m). More importantly, with DRLCO turning more Share price (DKK) 09/01/2020 431.8 FCF-positive, we think it may provide some guidance on potential cash returns to shareholders. We estimate that DRLCO could distribute its Target price (610.0) 610.0 entire FCF of ~USD 330m in 2021 (implying a dividend yield of ~12%) and keep leverage ratio below 2.0x. We apply half of that amount in our Oil & Gas Drilling, Denmark estimates, and think that a clear dividend strategy would be a strong DRLCO.CO /DRLCO DC signal about DRLCO’s faith and ability to navigate the cycle as well as a positive trigger for the share. We upgrade the stock to BUY (Hold) with MCap (DKKm) 17,930 TP of DKK 610, implying 2021 EV/EBITDA of 7.7x. MCap (EURm) 2,399.2 Net debt (EURm) 992 Low leverage, good visibility Supporting the potential for dividends, DRLCO remains the least-levered No. of shares (m) 41.5 offshore driller, with solid contract coverage (~60% in 2020 and ~28% in Free float (%) 50.0 2021) and near-term visibility. Its disciplined bidding strategy has been Av. daily volume (k) 76.0 illustrated by recent contract wins at increasing dayrates for both floaters and jackups. Second hand-asset values are down ~10-20% y-o-y, with ultra-harsh-environment jackups recording a lonely gain of ~4%. We Performance estimate NAV of DKK 572, implying P/NAV of 0.79x and EV/GAV of 115 110 0.84x, compared to peers at 0.79x and 0.94x. 105 100 95 Two contenders left in the offshore drilling divi race 90 85 In the ongoing offshore drilling carnage, Odfjell Drilling has been the only 80 driller hinting at potential future dividends starting in 2022. We think 75 70 DRLCO could start dividend distributions earlier, utilising its strong 65 60

balance sheet and cash flow generation. We estimate FCF of ~USD

Apr 19 Apr

Oct 19 Oct

Jun 19 Jun Aug 19 Aug 140m in 2020 with a higher number of regulatory surveys (~5% FCF 19 Dec Maersk Drilling OMX CPGN PI yield) and ~USD 330m in 2021 (~12% FCF yield), with NIBD/EBITDA declining from current 2.7x to 1.1x. 1m 3m 12m

Absolute (%) 3.5 18.6 na Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 OMX CPGN PI (%) 1.1 11.5 19.1 [email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -27.5 193.4 18.2 Sales 1,439 1,429 1,227 1,364 1,492 P/E adj (x) -38.2 193.4 18.2 EBITDA 685 595 411 486 598 P/BVPS (x) 0.72 0.72 0.72 EBITDA margin (%) 47.6 41.6 33.5 35.6 40.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.2 7.5 5.8 EBIT adj -1,552 1,002 -2 94 206 EV/EBIT adj (x) -1,811.6 38.8 16.9 EBIT adj margin (%) -107.9 70.1 -0.2 6.9 13.8 EV/sales (x) 3.08 2.66 2.33 Pretax profit -1,571 990 -78 26 161 ROE adj (%) -1.9 0.4 4.0 EPS rep 0 0 -2.33 0.33 3.53 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 6.2 EPS adj 0 0 -1.68 0.33 3.53 FCF yield (%) 2.1 5.3 12.4 Sales growth (%) -37.4 -0.7 -14.1 11.1 9.4 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 2.1 5.3 12.4 EPS growth (%) na na high 114.2 965.2 Net IB debt/EBITDA 2.7 2.0 1.3 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 2.7 2.0 1.3

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Maersk Drilling

Detailed forecast table Maersk Drilling Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm H1'18 H2'18 H1'19 H2'19e Q1'20e H2'19e Dev. 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement FactSet FactSet FactSet Revenues 742 687 623 604 303 598 1% 1,439 1,429 1,227 1,364 1,492 1,338 1,544 Opex -433 -415 -392 -411 -189 -429 -754 -834 -816 -878 -894 -880 -923 Non-recurring items -2 -14 -13 -16 -13 EBITDA 307 258 218 193 114 169 14% 685 595 411 486 598 458 621 EBITDA margins 41% 38% 35% 32% 38% 28% 48% 42% 33% 36% 40% 34% 40% Impairments / Other -810 7 -34 0 -1,769 810 -27 0 0 EBIT 131 870 35 -37 16 -21 n.m -1,552 1,002 -2 94 206 74 241 EBIT margins 18% 127% 6% n.m. 5% n.m. n.m. 70% n.m. 7% 14% 6% 16% PTP 116 873 -5 -73 -1 -57 n.m -1,571 990 -78 26 161 8 186 Net profit 109 832 -18 -79 -4 -67 n.m -1,522 942 -97 14 147 -21 142 EPS (USD) 2.6 20.1 -0.4 -1.90 -0.10 -1.6 n.m n.a. n.a. -2.3 0.3 3.5 -0.5 3.4 EPS (DKK) 17.2 132.7 -2.9 -12.52 -0.67 n.a. n.a. -15.4 2.2 23.3 DPS (USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 n.m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.1 Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 6 1,470 1,475 1,410 1,378 1,632 1,470 1,410 1,280 1,150 Gross cash 72 372 354 300 321 49 372 300 310 345 NIBD -66 1,098 1,121 1,110 1,056 1,583 1,098 1,110 970 805 NIBD/share (DKK) n.a. n.a. 178 177 168 n.a. n.a. 177 154 128 Book equity/share (DKK) n.a. n.a. 600 588 587 n.a. n.a. 588 590 587

Operating cash flow 251 326 165 161 87 652 577 326 383 531 Free cash flow 217 178 16 11 54 132 395 27 140 331 Free cash flow/share (DKK) n.a. n.a. 2.5 1.7 8.6 n.a. n.a. 4.2 22.3 52.6

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Contracts and dayrates Dayrates (USDkpd) Rig type Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Innovator JU UHE 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 Inspirer PRODUCTION 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 Integrator PJU UHE 425 425 425 425 425 177 177 177 177 177 177 177 177 177 177 177 177 177 177 250 273 250 250 250 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 Interceptor PJU UHE 384 384 384 384 384 384 384 384 384 384 384 384 384 1 1 1 1 1 1 275 275 250 250 250 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 Intrepid PJU UHE 255 267 267 267 255 255 255 255 255 255 267 267 267 267 330 330 330 330 330 330 250 250 250 250 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 Invincible PJU UHE 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 Reacher JU UHE 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 Resilient PJU HE 1 1 1 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 1 1 1 1 108 108 90 90 90 90 90 115 115 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Resolute PJU HE 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Resolve PJU HE 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Highlander PJU HE 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 110 110 110 Gallant JU UHE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Guardian ACCOM 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 100 Convincer PJU 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 Deliverer 6G UDW SS 150 150 100 100 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 Developer 6G UDW SS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 111 111 111 111 111 111 228 228 228 228 228 228 150 150 150 150 150 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Discoverer 6G UDW SS 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Explorer MW SS 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Valiant 7G UDW DS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Venturer 7G UDW DS 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 Viking 7G UDW DS 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 1 1 1 214 214 214 214 214 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Voyager 7G UDW DS 180 180 180 180 180 180 170 170 170 1 1 1 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Contract * Estimates for undisclosed dayrates in italics Option Rates undisclosed Mobe / Yard 1 = stacked / idle

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 53

Northern Drilling Limited Reason: Recommendation change Creating two different risk vehicles

 NOL – harsh-environment cash flow

 NODL – option on UDW recovery Estimate changes (%)  Awaiting exchange offer – HOLD (Buy), TP NOK 25 (90) 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -39.2% 4.0% 8.3% Spin-off creating two different risk vehicles EBIT (rep) -309.1% 17.9% 7.2% In connection with the planned spin-off of the two harsh-environment rigs EPS (rep) -266.4% -0.2% -9.9% (Mira and Bollsta), the new company (Northern Ocean) has raised USD Source: ABG Sundal Collier 100m in equity, implying market cap of ~USD 340m. Northern Drilling Share price (NOK) 09/01/2020 19.9 Limited (NODL) shareholders will have an opportunity to exchange their shares into Northern Ocean shares at a yet-to-be decided exchange Target price (90.0) 25.0 ratio. The split will leave investors with two vehicles with different risk profiles. Awaiting the exchange offer, we downgrade the stock to HOLD Oil & Gas Drilling, Norway (Buy) and cut the TP to NOK 25 (90). NODL will report Q4 results on 28 NODL.NO/NODL NO February. MCap (NOKm) 2,140 NOL – harsh-environment cash flow MCap (EURm) 217.0 We estimate that Northern Ocean (NOL) will have pro forma NIBD of Net debt (EURm) 392 ~USD 460m, valuing the rigs at ~USD 400m/rig in the private placement. With both rigs contracted offshore Norway, this will be the low-risk No. of shares (m) 108 vehicle generating free cash flow at its current dayrates, while it is well Free float (%) 60.0 positioned for follow-up work in the best-balanced offshore drilling Av. daily volume (k) 225.7 segment today.

NODL – option on UDW recovery Next event Q4 report: 28 Feb NODL, on the other hand, will be left with ~USD 20m in cash, two UDW Performance drillship newbuilds scheduled for delivery in Q1’21 (remaining shipyard 140 capex of ~USD 412m plus ready-to-drill cost) and approximately a USD 120 50m arbitration claim related to cancellation of another newbuild contract. 100 Finding bankable contracts will be key for realizing the option value embedded in the equity. 80 60

Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 40

[email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65 20

Jul 17 Jul

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Nov 19 Nov

May 17 May

May 18 May May 19 May Northern Drilling Limited OSE GI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) -3.9 -15.7 -67.6 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -69.0 7.8 9.5 Sales 0 0 14 180 244 P/E adj (x) -69.0 7.8 9.5 EBITDA -1 -2 0 70 90 P/BVPS (x) 0.34 0.33 0.32 EBITDA margin (%) nm nm 2.5 38.7 36.9 EBIT adj -1 -2 -2 46 60 EV/EBITDA (x) 1,890.0 9.0 11.8 EBIT adj margin (%) nm nm -13.0 25.4 24.4 EV/EBIT adj (x) -364.8 13.7 17.9 Pretax profit -4 2 -3 31 28 EV/sales (x) 47.38 3.48 4.37 EPS rep -0.08 0.02 -0.03 0.29 0.24 ROE adj (%) -0.5 4.3 3.7 EPS adj -0.08 0.02 -0.03 0.29 0.24 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -140.2 22.8 -157.1 Sales growth (%) na na na 1,156.9 35.6 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -140.2 22.8 -157.1 EPS growth (%) high 127.0 -248.6 986.3 -17.7 Net IB debt/EBITDA 1,219.7 5.5 8.9 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 1,219.7 5.5 8.9

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Northern Drilling Limited

Detailed forecast table Northern Drilling Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19e Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement FactSet FactSet FactSet Revenues 0 0 0 0 14 25 16 -9% 0 14 180 244 190 335 Opex -1 -1 -1 -1 -11 -16 -13 -2 -14 -110 -154 -117 -203 EBITDA -1 -1 -1 -1 3 8 3 4% -2 0 70 90 73 132 EBITDA margins n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 21% 34% 19% n.m. 3% 39% 37% 39% 39% EBIT -1 -1 -1 -1 1 5 0 n.a. -2 -2 46 60 49 92 EBIT margins n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 6% 20% n.m. n.m. n.m. 25% 24% 26% 27% PTP -1 0 -1 -1 -3 1 -7 n.m 0 -5 30 28 21 45 Net profit -1 0 -1 -1 -3 1 -7 n.m 0 -5 27 25 17 38 EPS (USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 n.m 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 DPS (USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 198 198 395 461 486 476 198 486 446 806 Gross cash 123 100 47 51 47 42 123 47 59 2 NIBD 75 98 348 410 438 434 75 438 387 804 NIBD/share (USD) 0.7 0.9 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.0 0.7 4.1 3.6 7.5 Book equity/share (USD) 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 7.1 6.6 6.8 7.1

Operating cash flow -2 -6 -4 8 -29 4 -1 -32 52 55 Free cash flow -220 -23 -250 -61 -29 4 -403 -363 52 -417 Free cash flow/share (USD) -2.0 -0.2 -2.3 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 -4.0 -3.4 0.5 -3.9

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Contracts and dayrates Dayrates (USDkpd) Rig type Expiry Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 West Mira 6G UDW SS NOR 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 West Bollsta 6G UDW SS NOR Q1'22 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 West Aquila 7G UDW DS 250 250 250 West Libra 7G UDW DS 250 250 250

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 55

Odfjell Drilling Reason: Preview of results Highest visibility, lowest multiples

 Recent backlog additions increase contract coverage

 Unjustified discount to peers Estimate changes (%)  We expect Q4 EBITDA of USD 84m 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.0% -0.1% 4.4% Modern rigs fully covered in 2020 EBIT (rep) 1.7% -2.8% 12.6% Recent backlog additions have improved near-term contract coverage, EPS (rep) 4.9% -5.4% 21.7% allowing for further deleveraging of the balance sheet (we project Source: ABG Sundal Collier NIBD/EBITDA to decline from today’s ~3.7x to ~2.3x in 2021e) and Share price (NOK) 08/01/2020 29.6 opening up for dividends from 2022. While this is likely too far off to impress equity investors, it illustrates ODL’s comfortable position with Target price (40.0) 40.0 regard to visibility and leverage. We stick to our BUY rating and NOK 40 TP, implying a 2020e EV/EBITDA of 5.8x and FCF of ~14%. Oil & Gas Drilling, Norway ODL.NO/ODL NO Recent backlog additions In December, ODL announced several backlog additions, improving its MCap (NOKm) 7,009 near-term visibility. Aker BP declared a one-year option on Nordkapp MCap (EURm) 711.2 commencing in Q2’21 at USD 350kpd. Under its Frame Agreement, Net debt (EURm) 1,051 Equinor exercised three wells on Atlantic commencing in Q2’20 at ~USD 340kpd. The dayrates are exclusive of performance-related bonuses, No. of shares (m) 237 which we estimate could be up 10% of the dayrate. The platform drilling Free float (%) 27.9 division secured a 5+2x3-year contract with Conoco at the Ekofisk field Av. daily volume (k) 119.0 offshore Norway (we estimate ~USD 150m in revenue with EBITDA margin of ~6%). Next event Q4 report: 28 Feb Unjustified discount to peers Performance We estimate that ODL is trading at an implied age-adjusted steel value of 280 ~USD 424m per HE UDW semi, implying a P/NAV of 0.75x and EV/GAV 260 of 0.89x. This compares to peers at 0.79x and 0.94x respectively, which 240 220 we find unjustified given ODL’s robust coverage and solid financial 200 180 position throughout our forecast period. ODL’s HE UDW semis are 160 implicitly valued at ~71% of their age-adjusted replacement cost (~USD 140 120 600m) compared to stranded assets acquisitions done at ~80%. 100 80

Jul 17 Jul

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May 17 May May 18 May Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 19 May Odfjell Drilling OSE GI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 7.7 9.5 17.0 OSE GI (%) 4.3 7.7 10.6 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 18.4 10.3 8.1 Sales 662 698 811 898 919 P/E adj (x) 18.4 10.3 8.1 EBITDA 274 260 323 360 374 P/BVPS (x) 0.75 0.70 0.64 EBITDA margin (%) 41.3 37.2 39.9 40.1 40.7 EBIT adj 112 99 142 170 184 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 5.1 4.2 EBIT adj margin (%) 17.0 14.2 17.5 19.0 20.0 EV/EBIT adj (x) 13.9 10.7 8.6 Pretax profit 35 32 48 90 115 EV/sales (x) 2.42 2.03 1.72 EPS rep 0.16 0.12 0.18 0.32 0.41 ROE adj (%) 4.1 7.0 8.3 EPS adj 0.16 0.12 0.18 0.32 0.41 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -28.7 21.5 33.4 Sales growth (%) 0.7 5.5 16.2 10.6 2.4 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -28.7 21.5 33.4 EPS growth (%) 150.7 -24.5 46.8 77.7 28.0 Net IB debt/EBITDA 3.6 2.9 2.1 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 3.6 2.9 2.1

Detailed forecast table

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Odfjell Drilling

Odfjell Drilling Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement FactSet FactSet FactSet Revenue 168 201 186 215 209 172 201 4% 701 811 904 919 866 862 Opex -100 -129 -114 -121 -125 -115 -121 -441 -488 -537 -545 -503 -492 EBITDA 68 73 72 94 84 57 80 6% 260 323 367 374 363 370 EBITDA margins 40% 36% 39% 44% 40% 33% 40% 37% 40% 41% 41% 42% 43% EBIT 28 31 27 47 37 9 33 13% 99 142 177 184 173 183 EBIT margins 17% 15% 15% 22% 18% 5% 16% 14% 17% 20% 20% 20% 21% PTP 21 11 1 22 15 -12 8 82% 32 48 97 115 92 113 Net profit 19 10 0 20 13 -10 7 76% 28 43 82 98 73 92 EPS 0.08 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.05 -0.04 0.04 49% 0.12 0.18 0.35 0.41 0.37 0.41 DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n.m. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 1,095 1,442 1,435 1,410 1,339 1,311 1,095 1,339 1,144 974 Gross cash 175 191 179 131 110 110 175 110 64 114 NIBD 920 1,251 1,256 1,278 1,229 1,200 920 1,229 1,080 859 Book equity/share 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.2

Operating cash flow 97 35 60 27 63 58 221 186 270 277 Free cash flow 58 -275 -2 -12 49 29 -73 -239 149 220 Free cash flow/share 0.2 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 0.6 0.9

Segment summary Revenues MODU 119 152 132 155 150 113 476 589 652 647 Drilling & Technology 37 34 37 38 38 38 145 147 167 182 Well Services 25 25 27 29 30 30 107 110 121 126 Eliminations -13 -10 -9 -7 -9 -9 -29 -35 -36 -36 EBITDA MODU 58 67 63 81 77 49 226 288 335 333 Drilling & Technology 5 2 4 6 3 3 14 15 13 15 Well Services 6 5 7 8 7 7 26 28 30 38 Eliminations -3 -2 -4 -1 -3 -3 -7 -10 -12 -12

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Contracts and dayrates Dayrates (USDkpd) Rig type Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Deepsea Stavanger 6G SS UDW NOR 305 305 305 279 279 279 279 279 279 279 279 279 279 438 438 438 438 438 438 1 1 300 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 Deepsea Atlantic 6G SS UDW NOR 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 340 340 340 340 300 300 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 Deepsea Aberdeen 6G SS UDW UK 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 Deepsea Bergen 3G SS MW NOR 170 100 100 100 100 200 200 200 200 200 180 180 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Deepsea Nordkapp 6G SS UDW NOR 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 Contract Option Mobe / Yard 1 = stacked / idle

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Valuation

ODL: NAV (NOK/sh) Value per share at various rig values 100 60 90 13 50 80 70 15 40 2 51 60 30 50

40 0 NOK/share 20 30 62 20 40 10

10 0 0 Implied Broker quotes Peers Last done Age adj. 4x UDW MW HE SS WS and B-log adj. NIBD adj. Remaining NAV Replacement HE SS D&T capex cost

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 57

Seadrill Reason: Preview of results Creditor discussions ongoing

 Looking for a sustainable capital structure

 Adding contracts, but utilization is key Estimate changes (%)  We expect Q4 EBITDA of USD 45m 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.0% -2.9% 1.2% Looking for a sustainable capital structure EBIT (rep) 0.0% -60.1% -114.7% Seadrill (SDRL) is engaging in discussions with its main creditors (44 EPS (rep) 0.0% -10.8% -3.4% banks) in order to find a sustainable capital structure that would enable Source: ABG Sundal Collier the company to navigate through the protracted offshore drilling Share price (NOK) 09/01/2020 17.0 recovery. Such discussions have a tendency to leave existing shareholders in the back seat and are the main reason for our HOLD Target price (10.0) 10.0 rating and TP NOK 10. Meanwhile, we expect the share to be volatile subject to changes in sentiment, but it will remain too far out on the risk Oil & Gas Drilling, Norway curve until a permanent capital structure solution is in place. SDRL.OL/SDRL NO

Adding contracts, but utilization is key MCap (NOKm) 1,700 In late December, Seadrill secured three-year extensions with Saudi MCap (EURm) 172.4 Aramco for jackups AOD I and AOD II at ~USD 90kpd, and a ~27-month Net debt (EURm) 5,107 contract for HE UDW semi West Phoenix offshore Norway at ~USD 360kpd commencing in Q2’21. While the rates are close or even above No. of shares (m) 100 FCF-neutral levels, full utilization of its current working fleet (17 out of 35 Free float (%) 69.0 rigs) is also required. As such, SDRL will continue burning cash and has Av. daily volume (k) 1,790.0 already started to utilize the ACE (Amortization Conversion Election facility), which enables the company to defer amortisation payments through 2020 (up to USD 500m in total). While this keeps liquidity intact, Next event Q4 report: 28 Feb the NIBD remains at ~USD 5.3bn. Performance

800 Valuation 700 At current broker quotes, SDRL’s fleet is valued at ~USD 4.7bn, with 600 NIBD of ~USD 5.3bn. ~USD 820m relates to stacked rigs that will require 500 considerable re-activation capex, especially on the floater side. As such, 400 300 the main component of our NAV estimate (NOK 82) is various strategic 200 stakes (estimated at ~USD 1.2bn); thus, in our view, potential 100

monetization should be part of the discussions with creditors. The Q4 0

Jul 17 Jul

Jul 18 Jul

Jul 19 Jul

Jan 17 Jan

Jan 18 Jan

Jan 19 Jan

Mar 17 Mar

Mar 18 Mar

Mar 19 Mar

Sep 17 Sep

Nov 17 Nov

Sep 18 Sep

Nov 18 Nov

Sep 19 Sep

Nov 19 Nov

May 17 May May 18 May report is due out on 28 February. 19 May Seadrill OSE GI

Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 51.8 1.3 -82.0 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Sales 2,115 1,260 1,265 1,163 1,322 P/E adj (x) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 EBITDA 766 309 271 222 382 EBITDA margin (%) 36.2 24.5 21.4 19.0 28.9 P/BVPS (x) 0.12 0.20 0.42 EBIT adj -483 154 -287 -206 -46 EV/EBITDA (x) 20.4 26.7 16.2 EBIT adj margin (%) -22.8 12.2 -22.7 -17.7 -3.5 EV/EBIT adj (x) -19.3 -28.7 -134.4 Pretax profit -3,036 -6,997 -1,232 -660 -474 EV/sales (x) 4.37 5.09 4.68 EPS rep -5.84 -70.26 -12.28 -6.90 -5.09 ROE adj (%) -35.3 -49.3 -65.4 EPS adj -0.93 -35.39 -8.00 -6.43 -4.61 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -134.5 -242.2 -171.6 Sales growth (%) -33.7 -40.4 0.4 -8.1 13.6 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -134.5 -242.2 -171.6 EPS growth (%) -1,428.1 -1,102.3 82.5 43.8 26.2 Net IB debt/EBITDA 21.1 27.6 16.7 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 21.1 27.6 16.7

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Seadrill

Detailed forecast table Seadrill Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. (USDm) Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement FactSet FactSet FactSet Revenues 292 302 321 367 275 282 278 -1% 1,260 1,265 1,163 1,322 1,245 1,596 Opex -219 -230 -252 -282 -230 -234 -238 -951 -994 -942 -940 -1,049 -1,189 EBITDA 73 72 69 85 45 48 40 12% 309 271 222 382 196 407 EBITDA margins 25% 24% 21% 23% 16% 17% 14% 25% 21% 19% 29% 16% 26% EBIT -69 -71 -73 -58 -85 -60 -85 n.m -788 -287 -207 -46 -237 -21 EBIT margins n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.a. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. -19% -1% PTP -354 -278 -236 -518 -200 -175 -212 n.m -4,452 -1,232 -661 -474 -642 -447 Net profit to shareholders -360 -295 -206 -521 -209 -182 -208 n.m -4,481 -1,228 -691 -509 -661 -492 EPS fully diluted (USD) -3.60 -2.95 -2.03 -5.21 -2.09 -1.82 -2.25 n.m -13.70 -12.28 -6.91 -5.09 -6.89 -5.24

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 7,136 7,082 6,765 6,771 6,782 6,792 7,136 6,782 6,763 6,707 Gross cash 2,003 1,902 1,469 1,445 1,354 1,229 2,003 1,354 884 572 NIBD 5,133 5,180 5,296 5,326 5,428 5,562 5,133 5,428 5,878 6,135 Book equity/share (USD) 31 28 26 20 18 16 31 18 11 6

Operating cash flow 33 -99 -85 -16 -41 -54 -239 -241 -190 -52 Free cash flow 46 -97 -98 -8 -61 -94 -29 -264 -350 -212 Free cash flow/share (USD) 0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.9 n.a. -2.6 -3.5 -2.1

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Contracts and dayrates: Floaters Dayrates (USDkpd) Rig type Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 West Taurus 6G SS UDW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Orion 6G SS UDW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Hercules 6G SS UDW NOR 180 180 180 180 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 255 255 315 315 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 West Alpha 4G SS MW NOR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Venture 5G SS MW NOR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Navigator 5G DS UDW NOR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Gemini 6G DS UDW 150 150 150 150 150 150 200 200 200 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 West Phoenix 6G SS UDW NOR 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 290 290 318 318 293 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 350 350 350 350 350 360 360 360 360 360 360 West Eminence 6G SS UDW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Tellus 6G DS UDW 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 233 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 West Pegasus 6G SS UDW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Neptune 6G DS UDW 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 West Jupiter 6G DS UDW 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 1 1 1 1 1 1 200 200 200 200 200 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 West Saturn 6G DS UDW 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 200 200 200 200 200 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 West Carina (MPD) 6G DS UDW 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 1 1 1 1 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 West Eclipse 6G SS UDW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sevan Driller 5G SS UDW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sevan Brasil 5G SS UDW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sevan Louisiana 5G SS UDW 150 150 1 1 1 1 1 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Contract Option Shipyard / Mobe 1 = Stacked / Idle

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Contracts and dayrates: Jackups Dayrates (USDk/day) Rig type Expiry Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 West Epsilon JU UHE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Elara JU NEW UHE Q4'27 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 West Linus JU NEW UHE Q4'28 205 205 205 205 205 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 West Prospero JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Ariel JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Callisto JU NEW 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 80 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 West Leda JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Cressida JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 West Vigilant JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Freedom JU NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 West Castor (GDI JV) JU NEW 1 1 1 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 West Tucana JU NEW 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 West Telesto (GDI JV) JU NEW 55 55 55 1 1 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 AOD-1 JU NEW Q2'22 103 103 103 103 103 103 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 AOD-2 JU NEW 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 AOD-3 JU NEW 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 Contracted Option Shipyard / Mobe 1 = Stacked / Idle

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 59

Akastor

Field dev. market & company overview The subsea industry order intake Industry order intake continues to recover gradually has recovered gradually since The offshore project sanctioning continues to recover moderately, and the order 2016 intake for the large, listed subsea companies was up ~9% in Q3’19. Subsea order intake per quarter (LS) and last four quarters trailing (HS) 8000 25000 23163 6842 22093 22527 7000 19452 19943 5950 20000 19222 6000 5684 17905 18389 5118 5193 5121 16539 4880 4686 15784 5000 4456 15000 3828 4000 3701 3623

USDm 3139 USDm 3000 10000

2000 5000 1000

0 0 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 4q sum trailing

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company (SUBC, Saipem E&C Offshore, FTI, GE, AKSO) data

In Q4e, we expect Subsea 7 to report strong order intake with book-to-bill of ~1.2x and Aker Solutions to report soft book-to-bill of 0.77x. AKSO (LS) and SUBC (HS) order intake by quarter 25,000 3500

20,000 3000

2500 15,000 2000

10,000 1500

Order intake, NOKm intake, Order 1000 5,000 Order intake,USDm 500

0 0

Q4 (07) Q4 (08) Q3 (10) Q4 (11) Q3 (13) Q4 (14) Q3 (16) Q4 (17) Q3 (19e) Q4 Q1 (07) Q1 (09) Q2 (10) Q1 (12) Q2 (13) Q1 (15) Q2 (16) Q1 (18) Q2 (19) Q1

Q3(15)

Q3 (13) Q3 (14) Q2 (14) Q4 (16) Q2 (17) Q1 (17) Q3 (18) Q2 (19) Q1 Q1 (13) Q1 (13) Q2 (13) Q4 (14) Q1 (14) Q3 (15) Q1 (15) Q2 (15) Q4 (16) Q1 (16) Q3 (16) Q4 (17) Q2 (17) Q4 (18) Q1 (18) Q3 (18) Q4 (19) Q2 (19) Q3 Q4 (19e) Q4 Announced Unannounced Announced orders Un-announced orders

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

The low cost level implies that the projects ready for sanctioning remain very economically attractive at current oil prices.

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 60

Akastor

Offshore development capex by sanctioning year and oil price break-even

500

450

400

350

300 39

250 67 40 USDbn 200 90 90 106 150 19 26 100 150 123 50 120 119

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

<40 40-50 50-60 60-70 >70

Source: Rystad Energy, ABG Sundal Collier

Some of the largest projects expected to progress towards sanctioning are shown below. Project list – Sanctioning potential in 2020 and 2021 2020 sanctions offshore USDbn 2021 sanctions offshore above USD 1bn USDbn QatarGas T8-T11 (NFE), QA 48237 Abadi LNG, ID 18666 Upper Zakum, AE 39787 Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG (Phase 1), MR 15953 Zuluf (expansion), SA 34188 North West Shelf LNG T4-T5, AU 14562 Hail & Ghasha ultra-sour gas project, AE 14756 Ballymore, US 11869 Carcara, BR 13676 Kamennomysskoye-More, RU 10563 Iara, BR 12494 Greater Turbot (Stabroek), GY 9756 Whale, US 9293 Ow ow o West, NG 9674 Mero (Libra NW), BR 9066 Mero (Libra NW), BR 8626 A&E Structures, LY 7753 Etan - Zabazaba, NG 7626 Pluto LNG T2, AU 7558 North West Shelf LNG T3, AU 7605 Darw in LNG T1, AU 6609 Wisting, NO 7352 Parque das Baleia, BR 6307 Trion, MX 7220 Pecan, GH 6147 Lancaster, GB 7177 Itapu (x-Florim), BR 5707 Absheron, AZ 6885 Prelude (FLNG), AU 5305 Aphrodite, CY 6369 MLNG Tiga, MY 4870 Zama, MX 6288 Western Hub (Block 15/06), AO 4446 Umm Shaif/Nasr, AE 5211 SNE, SN 4314 Block B Gas project, VN 4936 Grane Breidablikk, NO 3972 Ca Voi Xanh (Blue Whale), VN 4470 Litoral De Tabasco Integral Business Unit, MX 3597 Cameia, AO 3896 North Field (Sustainability), QA 3588 Block CA-2, BN 3690 Balder/Ringhorne, NO 3296 Shw e Yee Htun, MM 3634 Kashagan, KZ 3133 Ormen Lange, NO 3624 Umm Shaiff (Khuff Gas Expansion), AE 3039 Low er Zakum, AE 3528 Sea Lion, FK 3020 Gato do Mato, BR 3407 Pluto LNG, AU 2867 Kish Gas Project, IR 3333 Cambo Hub, GB 2764 Far East LNG Train, RU 3201 Liuhua 11-1, CN 2668 Hejre, DK 3193 MLNG Satu, MY 2648 Clair, GB 3124 BS-4, BR 2549 Neptun Deep, RO 3103 PAJ (Block 31 South East), AO 2440 Alvheim FPSO, NO 3001 Crudo Ligero Marino, MX 2319 Albacora, BR 2873 Egina, NG 2089 Leon, US 2841 Greater Liza (Payara), GY 2028 Farfan (1-BRSA-1083-SES (1-SES-167)), BR 2734 Hod, NO 1839 Tamar, IL 2713 Lufeng 22-1 (redevelop), CN 1795 Peon, NO 2698 Jackdaw , GB 1774 HA, NG 2510 Al Shaheen (Gallaf), QA 1726 Makhtumkuli (x-Banka Livanova East), TM 2344 WA-01-R (Scarborough), AU 1701 Muriú (1-BRSA-1108-SES (1-SES-172)), BR 2251 Galapagos, GB 1701 Liberty, US 2217 Bozhong 19-6, CN 1625 Roc, AU 2146 Ande-Ande Lumut, ID 1254 Bul Hanine, QA 2055 Captain EOR, GB 1195 Karabakh, AZ 1972 Limbayong, MY 1160 Abadi, ID 1921 Contract 4, TH 1124 Ekofisk, NO 1820 Wushi 17-2, CN 986 MLNG Dua, MY 1815 Aasgard FPSO, NO 967 Snohvit, NO 1795

Source: Rystad, ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 61

Akastor

Akastor Reason: Preview of results Going on the offensive

 Steady quarter expected

 Focus on growing MHWirth, where it has gaps Estimate changes (%)  Significant discount to underlying value - BUY 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% We expect stable EBITDA in Q4 EBIT (rep) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% We expect EBITDA of NOK 135m in Q4’19e, close to the Q3’19 figure, EPS (rep) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% as we expect MHWirth to have quite high activity related to SPS given Source: ABG Sundal Collier single equipment demand remains solid and general after-market activity Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 9.4 is robust. Also note that the EBITDA includes IFRS 16 effects of ~NOK 20m and the Bronco acquisition, which was completed in Q2’19. Target price (17.0) 17.0

Looking to improve scale and offering in MHWirth Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway MHWirth has adjusted the cost base to the current challenging market, AKA.OL/AKA NO secured a couple of drilling packages (from AWDR) to sustain project activity and seen demand for after-market services and single equipment MCap (NOKm) 2,557 recovering somewhat. With industry legend Pete Miller as Chairman, we MCap (EURm) 259.3 expect the focus to shift gradually towards a more positive future for the Net debt (EURm) 182 company, and we see the Bronco acquisition last year as a starting point. The focus is likely to be on broadening the service offering (to onshore, No. of shares (m) 272 for example), improving the after-market offering and possibly plugging Free float (%) 51.0 gaps in the portfolio (BOPs, for example). The intention is to build a Av. daily volume (k) na company with a more reasonable scale and diversification, with an IPO (or trade sale) as the exit plan in a few years. We expect a disciplined and value-accretive approach to this under main owner Aker ASA’s Next event Q4 report: 13 Feb watchful eye. Performance

150 Discount is too high - BUY 140 With the share trading below NOK 10, we see a considerable discount to 130 120 book value (NOK 14), noting that all of its divestments have been done at 110 100 a premium. When applying peer National Oilwell Varco’s multiples to 90 MHWirth, we get a SOTP of ~NOK 24/share. While further monetisation 80 70 is some time out, we consider the valuation to be attractive and maintain 60

our BUY and TP of NOK 17. 50

Jul 17 Jul

Jul 18 Jul

Jul 19 Jul

Jan 17 Jan

Jan 18 Jan

Jan 19 Jan

Jan 20 Jan

Mar 17 Mar Mar 18 Mar

19 Mar

Sep 17 Sep

Nov 17 Nov

Sep 18 Sep

Nov 18 Nov

Sep 19 Sep

Nov 19 Nov

May 17 May

May 18 May May 19 May Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 Akastor OSE GI [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 7.2 -7.6 -30.9 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e NOKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 34.2 9.9 6.9 Sales 4,423 4,053 5,245 5,509 6,119 P/E adj (x) 35.6 9.9 6.9 EBITDA 188 367 475 490 615 EBITDA margin (%) 4.3 9.1 9.1 8.9 10.0 P/BVPS (x) 0.58 0.55 0.51 EBIT adj -326 108 212 268 402 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.5 2.1 1.0 EBIT adj margin (%) -7.4 2.7 4.0 4.9 6.6 EV/EBIT adj (x) 7.8 3.9 1.6 Pretax profit -1,329 -132 121 370 533 EV/sales (x) 0.31 0.19 0.10 EPS rep -0.62 -1.19 0.27 0.95 1.37 ROE adj (%) 1.6 5.7 7.7 EPS adj -3.65 -0.74 0.26 0.95 1.37 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -33.9 11.9 10.6 Sales growth (%) -40.7 -8.4 29.4 5.0 11.1 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -37.2 8.6 7.3 EPS growth (%) 88.5 -91.1 123.2 246.4 43.9 Net IB debt/EBITDA 3.8 2.6 1.7 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 3.3 2.1 1.2

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 62

Akastor

Key estimates FactSet Cons. Cons. Cons. NOKm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 1,090 1,070 1,304 1,430 1,428 1,331 1,428 0% 4,053 5,245 5,509 6,119 5,197 5,509 5,715 EBITDA 63 92 114 133 136 115 134 1% 367 475 490 615 473 490 569 EBITDA margins 5.8% 8.6% 8.7% 9.3% 9.5% 8.6% 9.4% 9.1% 9.1% 8.9% 10.0% 9.1 % 8.9 % 10.0 % EBIT 21 31 27 76 79 58 66 20% 108 212 268 402 200 265 300 EBIT margins 2% 3% 2% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 5% 7% Net profit -492 62 -78 -8 57 46 54 -323 75 259 373 33 200 230 # avg. shares 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 EPS -1.81 0.23 -0.29 -0.03 0.21 0.17 0.20 -1.19 0.27 0.95 1.37 0.1 0.7 0.8

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt (incl leases) 602 1,444 2,372 2,615 2,594 2,573 602 2,594 2,510 1,439 Gross cash & eq. 455 167 281 856 795 1,095 198 795 1,209 409 NIBD (rep) 147 929 1,560 1,759 1,595 1,468 147 1,595 1,291 1,020

Operating cash flow -72 -94 -143 124 177 147 314 64 388 365 Free cash flow -191 -210 -623 -190 155 126 562 -867 303 271 Free cash flow /share (NOK) -1 -1 -2 -1 1 0 2 -3 1 1

Other key figures and assumptions

Revenues MHWirth 893 904 1013 1113 1111 1014 3,056 4,141 4,212 4,670 AKOFS Offshore Other holdings & eliminations 198 167 291 317 317 317 740 1,104 1,297 1,449 Total 1091 1082 1304 1430 1428 1331 3,796 5,245 5,509 6,119

EBITDA MHWirth 73 88 109 133 132 111 281 462 468 556 AKOFS Offshore (50% of NI post Q1'18) 94 Other holdings & eliminations -11 5 5 0 4 4 -7 13 22 58 Total 62 93 114 133 136 115 368 475 490 615

EBITDA % MHWirth 8.2% 9.7% 10.8% 11.9% 11.9% 11.0% 9% 11% 11% 12% Total 5.7% 8.6% 8.7% 9.3% 9.5% 8.6% 9.7% 9.1% 8.9% 10.0%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

Sum-of-the-parts estimate Q3'19 capital Peak EBITDA, 19 EBITDA, Mid-cycle NOV pricing Asset employed NOKm NOKm Valuation metric Metric Value, NOKm MHWirth 2,887 1,110 462 9x average EBITDA 9.0x 6,183 5,639 AKOFS 1,060 P/B 1.0x 1,060 1,060 Share in NES Global Talent 619 P/B 1.0x 619 619 - Other 983 P/B 1.0x 983 983 Step/AGR/Cool Sorption DOF Deepw ater Odfjell NOK 0.64bn preferred equity, 3.05m shares in AWDR (NOK ~95m) Gross Asset Value 5,549 8,845 8,301

NIBD (incl lease liabilities) - 1,750 - 1,750 - 1,750 - - Shares 272 272 272 SOTP, NOK per share 14.0 26 24

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 63

Aker ASA Reason: Preview of results Interesting year ahead

 We estimate Q4’19 NAV of NOK 673/share

 Discount to NAV of ~18%

 Attractively priced assets, high discount and hidden value Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 548.5

Target price (675.0) 675.0 NAV rebounding in Q4e We estimate NAV of NOK 673/share in Q4’19e, up from Q3’19 at NOK Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway 580 and driven mainly by strong performance in AKERBP during the AKER.OL/AKER NO quarter. This estimate is based on the reported value of Aker Energy (NOK 13/share) and not our fair value estimate (NOK ~60/share). We MCap (NOKm) 40,724 estimate a cash position of NOK ~3.9bn, as the investments in OCY MCap (EURm) 4,129.5 (private placement) and REC shares are offset by the NOK 1.5bn bond issue and received dividends of NOK 0.9bn. No. of shares (m) 74.2 Aker Energy and Cognite potential not priced in Free float (%) 33.0 Based on current prices, our NAV estimate is NOK ~676/share. With the Av. daily volume (k) na current ~20% discount to NAV (using report values for Aker Energy and Cognite), we continue to see potential through the revaluation of these Next event Q4 report: 14 Feb assets as well as others in the portfolio (particularly AKERBP, AKSO,

AKA and OCY). While progress on Aker Energy’s Pecan development in Ghana has been dampened by regulatory issues, we expect progress during 2020 to be a positive trigger for the share. Further growth in Cognite is also expected.

Good setup for equity positive returns - BUY We have modelled a NOK 25/share dividend to be declared in Q4’19, implying ~4% dividend yield and ~3.7% of NAV, vs NOK 22.5 in 2018. We think 2020 will be a year where we see revaluation of listing assets, more visibility on valuation of unlisted assets in Aker’s portfolio, and maintain our BUY rating with TP NOK 675 (applying our fair value on holdings we cover and a NAV discount of ~20%.

Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 [email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65

NAV data NAV Per Share 673.0 NAV Discount (%) 20%

NOKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Reported NAV discount (%) 20% DPS 18.00 22.50 25.00 25.00 25.00 Target NAV discount (%) 20% Dividend Yield (%) 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.6 Net debt/Assets (%) 15% Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Net Asset Value estimate using Q3’19 reported balance sheet values and current prices Shares Price Mcap Net Asset Value outstanding NOK NOKm # shares stake total /share

Industrial holdings Aker Solutions - Owned in Aker Kvaerner Holding 272.0 24.4 6,637 77.7 28.6% 1,895 26 Aker Solutions - Direct ownership 272.0 24.4 6,637 17.4 6.4% 424 6 Akastor - Owned in Aker Kvaerner Holding 274.0 9.4 2,578 77.7 28.4% 731 10 Akastor - Direct ownership 274.0 9.4 2,578.3 23.3 8.5% 220 3.0

Kværner ASA 269.0 11.0 2,959 76.8 28.6% 845 11 AKERBP 360.1 291.0 104,793 144.0 40.0% 41,918 564 Aker BioMarine 1,220.0 1.3 1,586 1,220.0 98.0% 2,363 32 Ocean Yield 159.0 48.2 7,664 98.2 61.8% 4,735 64 Aker Energy (ABGSCe valuation estimate pre-PDO) 1,971 49.0% 966 13 Cognite 42 0.6

Value Industrial holdings: 54,139 728

Financial investments Solstad Farstad 291.5 1.0 304 58.5 20% 61 0.8 AMSC TRS 18.7 32.8 414 18.7 NA 0 0.0 American Shipping Company 60.6 32.8 1,988 11.6 19.10% 380 5.1 Cxense 9.0 15.0 135 0.513 5.70% 8 0.1 Aker Philadelphia Shipyard 12.6 43.8 551 7.2 57.55% 317 4.3 REC 279.8 2.6 728 64.2 22.95% 167 2.2 Adjustment 14 0.2 Public investments 947 10 0 0 Cash 3,983 54 Real Estate development (Fornebuporten) 568 8 Other financial investments (equity investments, receivables and other assets) 2,436 33

Value financial Investments: 7,934 104

Debt and liabilities Maturity Bond Aker 13 2023 -2000 -27 Bond Aker 08 2017 -651 -9 Bond Aker ? 2024 -1500 -20 Bond Aker 07 2019 0 0 Bond Aker 12 2019 0 0 Bond Aker 10 2020 -700 -9 Bond Aker 09 2022 -1000 -13 Bond Aker 12 2020 0 0 Bank RCF 2020 -852 -11 Bank - Aker BP facility 2020 -3834 -52 -969 -13 Other debt -308 -4 Non-interest bearing debt -351 -5 Total debt: -12,165 -164

Aker ASA Net Asset Value total, NOKm /share Industrial holdings 54,139 729 Financial holdings ex cash 3,951 53 Cash 3,983 54 Gross Asset values 62,073 836 Debt -12,165 -164 Net Asset Values 49,908 672

LTV 20% NAV - ABGSC calculation 49,908 672 Share price 549 P/NAV - as per ABGSCe valuation 82%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Infront

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 65

Aker Solutions Reason: Preview of results Q4 orders not sufficient to maintain estimates

 Decent Q4’19 earnings expected…

 …but soft orders likely to imply lower 2020e guidance Estimate changes (%)  Attractive valuation also on lower estimates ‒ BUY 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -1.0% -6.2% -5.5% We expect NOK 490m in Q4 EBITDA EBIT (rep) -1.8% -19.0% -17.6% Our forecasts are roughly in line with company guidance for FY 2019 EPS (rep) -4.1% -35.3% -24.7% ahead of the Q4 results (to be announced on 7 February), and we expect Source: ABG Sundal Collier NOK 6.6bn in revenues at 7.7% margins yielding NOK 490m in EBITDA. Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 24.4 We expect less drag from working capital movements and hence solid FCF generation, estimating that Aker Solutions (AKSO) will end the year Target price (32.0) 32.0 with ~NOK 6.1bn in NIBD of which NOK 5.4bn relates to operational leases (IFRS 16 effect). Given the earnings gap in 2020 from order Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway slippage in 2019, we do not expect AKSO to declare a dividend for 2019. AKSO.OL/AKSO NO

Pecan FID slippage likely to imply lower 2020 guidance MCap (NOKm) 6,637 At the Q3’19 presentation, AKSO guided for revenues and margins to be MCap (EURm) 673.0 slightly down in 2020 vs. 2019. Also to meet this guidance, the order Net debt (EURm) 609 backlog coverage was lagging recent years by ~2bn, hence strong Q4’19 order intake was required, in our view. One important contract award that No. of shares (m) 272 AKSO expected in Q4 was the ~NOK 4bn Pecan contract from Aker Free float (%) 53.0 Energy. Aker Energy has since then (in its own Q3’19 presentation) Av. daily volume (k) na disclosed that it has postponed the final investment decision (FID) on this project, hence this award is not coming until later in 2020e. After announcing NOK 1.6bn in orders in Q4, we expect ~NOK 4.6bn in total Next event Q4 report: 07 Feb intake. This likely implies backlog coverage for 2020e of

We lower our ’20/’21e EBITDA by ~8% on the back of soft Q4 intake, but 40

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May 17 May May 18 May still see a strong NOK >30bn pipeline for 2020 with Marlim, Janz, Pecan, 19 May Brunei MMO Limbayong, Lufeng and Grand among high impact Aker Solutions OSE GI opportunities. We maintain BUY and our NOK 32 target price. 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 10.1 4.1 -46.0 Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e NOKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 26.0 32.1 13.2 Sales 22,461 25,233 28,280 25,333 27,286 P/E adj (x) 13.9 32.1 13.2 EBITDA 1,518 1,809 2,299 1,909 2,334 EBITDA margin (%) 6.8 7.2 8.1 7.5 8.6 P/BVPS (x) 0.90 0.87 0.83 EBIT adj 860 1,073 1,081 718 1,147 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.1 5.7 4.2 EBIT adj margin (%) 3.8 4.3 3.8 2.8 4.2 EV/EBIT adj (x) 10.7 15.1 8.6 Pretax profit 396 792 437 333 769 EV/sales (x) 0.41 0.43 0.36 EPS rep 0.80 1.88 0.94 0.76 1.85 ROE adj (%) 6.4 2.7 6.4 EPS adj 1.67 1.96 1.76 0.76 1.85 Dividend yield (%) 0 1.6 1.6 FCF yield (%) -5.8 11.4 16.6 Sales growth (%) -12.1 12.3 12.1 -10.4 7.7 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -12.8 3.9 9.0 EPS growth (%) 294.5 135.5 -50.0 -19.1 143.2 Net IB debt/EBITDA 2.6 2.7 1.8 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 0.2 0.1 -0.2

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Aker Solutions

Key estimates

FactSet FactSet. FactSet. FactSet. NOKm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Revenues 6,954 7,256 7,525 7,134 6,365 6,478 6,498 -2% 25,233 28,280 25,333 27,286 28,370 26,690 28,072 EBITDA 483 634 623 553 490 473 517 -5% 1,811 2,299 1,909 2,334 2,321 2,074 2,345 EBITDA margins 6.9% 8.7% 8.3% 7.8% 7.7% 7.3% 7.9% 7.2% 8.1% 7.5% 8.6% 8.2 % 7.8 % 8.4 % EBITDA adj. 495 636 629 570 490 473 1,800 2,325 1,909 2,334 EBITDA adj. margins 7.1% 8.8% 8.4% 8.0% 7.7% 7.3% 7.1% 8.2% 7.5% 8.6% EBIT 0.0% 325 98 245 191 177 213 -10% 1,052 858 718 1,147 938 862 1,117 EBIT margins 0.2% 4% 1% 3% 3% 3% 4.2% 3.0% 2.8% 4.2% Net profit 178 149 -11 93 57 50 68 -15% 513 255 207 503 273 286 474 # avg. shares 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 EPS 0.65 0.54 -0.11 0.34 0.21 0.18 0.25 -15% 1.89 0.94 0.76 1.85 0.96 0.96 1.57

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.38 0.0 0.2 0.4

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 2,913 8,655 9,164 9,181 3,627 3,627 2,913 9,069 8,569 8,069 Gross cash 2,473 1,872 2,228 1,758 2,202 2,216 2,473 2,202 2,460 2,955 NIBD 347 5,877 6,025 6,645 6,089 5,950 347 6,089 5,331 4,336 NIBD/share (NOK) 1 22 22 24 22 22 1 22 20 16 Book equity/share (NOK) 28 27 26 27 28 28 28 28 29 30

Operating cash flow 113 -303 55 -173 778 334 920 357 1,518 1,645 Free cash flow -42 -462 -137 -421 556 139 622 -387 758 1,099 Free cash flow /share (NOK) 0 -2 -1 -2 2 1 2.3 -1.4 2.8 4.0

Other key figures and assumptions Projects 13% 14% -12% 9% Revenues 5608 5952 6015 5627 5034 5237 19,920 22,628 19,913 21,705 EBITDA 348 477 470 455 380 360 1,355 1,782 1,418 1,662 % 6.2% 8.0% 7.8% 8.1% 7.5% 6.9% 6.8% 7.9% 7.1% 7.7%

Services 12% 11% -5% 3% Revenues 1324 1299 1503 1549 1324 1234 5,097 5,675 5,391 5,553 EBITDA 194 186 205 162 141 141 678 694 605 786 % 14.7% 14.3% 13.6% 10.5% 10.6% 11.4% 13.3% 12.2% 11.2% 14.2%

Other/Eliminations Revenues 22.0 5.0 7.0 -42.0 7.0 7.0 216 -23 28 28 EBITDA -46 -30 -52 -64 -30 -29 -222 -176 -114 -114

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

Strong pipeline for 2020e 2020 "know n pipeline"

High probability NOKbn Janz 6.0 Pecan 4.0 Brunei MMO 3.0 Marlim 2.0 Unannounced 12.0

Total 27.0

Opportunities NOKbn Lufeng 1.0 Limbayong 1.2 Brasse 1.0 Grand/Breidablikk 1.5 Troll electrification 1.5 UK MMO - Total 1.5 Hail & Gasha (ADNOC) umb. 0.5 Norcem carbon capture 1.0 Rovuma umbilical 1.0 Bay du Nord - FEED 0.3

Total 10.5

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 67

Archer Limited Reason: Preview of results Focus on refinancing

 Q4 guided weak on Argentina restructuring

 Working to push debt maturities out Estimate changes (%)  Somewhat binary until refinanced 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.3% -5.2% -0.7% Argentina a soft spot in Q4 EBIT (rep) 2.5% -6.9% -1.6% Archer has maintained stable EBITDA during ’19, and at a slightly higher EPS (rep) 1.7% -25.9% -3.5% level than in ’18. In Q4’19e, EBITDA is expected to decline somewhat on Source: ABG Sundal Collier weak operating conditions and restructuring costs in Argentina. We Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 3.4 expect EBITDA of USD 19m (underlying USD ~23.6m), down from 25.4m in Q3’19. This still implies a meaningful improvement for the full year. We Target price (5.0) 5.0 expect a reversal of the working capital outflow in Q3 to lower the NIBD to USD 577m. This means we expect cash flow to be close to neutral in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway 2019, i.e. the company’s cash flow covers interest expenses and some ARCHER.OL/ARCHER NO growth capex while having limited capacity from debt amortisation. Our ’20 estimates are trimmed on somewhat lower activity in Argentina than MCap (NOKm) 495 we have previously assumed. Archer will report Q4 results on 27 MCap (EURm) 50.2 February. Net debt (EURm) 516 Expects to push maturities out No. of shares (m) 147 Archer’s main loan facility matures in September ’20 and it had drawn Free float (%) 75.0 USD 514m as of Q3’19, having USD 95m available. The key issue for Av. daily volume (k) na Archer is to renew this facility. The ambition is to push the maturity out without having to raise new equity, but with 5-6x leverage there is a certain risk involved in this, as we have seen other cases of banks not Next event Q4 report: 27 Feb being as accommodative as they were in the past. That said, Archer is Performance likely to be aided by the involvement of key stakeholder John Fredriksen. 160 140 Gradual improvement, high risk/reward 120 Archer is experiencing a gradual improvement in its earnings as the 100 market improves somewhat. Most recently, the modular rig contracts 80 60 enable some visibility as to a bit higher activity in ’20 and ’21. Archer’s 40 valuation is quite attractive, but we note that the MC is only ~10% of the 20

EV so the stock is clearly a high risk/high reward case highly dependent 0

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May 17 May May 18 May on the successful outcome of the upcoming refinancing. 19 May Archer Limited OSE GI

Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 1m 3m 12m [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 Absolute (%) 19.8 -8.5 -32.9 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -1.0 6.0 2.3 Sales 847 889 914 945 1,041 P/E adj (x) -1.0 6.0 2.3 EBITDA 55 72 90 104 116 EBITDA margin (%) 6.5 8.1 9.9 11.0 11.1 P/BVPS (x) 0.61 0.56 0.45 EBIT adj -7 16 41 56 70 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 5.6 4.7 EBIT adj margin (%) -0.9 1.8 4.4 5.9 6.7 EV/EBIT adj (x) 15.1 10.4 7.8 Pretax profit 54 -68 -58 12 30 EV/sales (x) 0.67 0.61 0.52 EPS rep 0.44 -0.36 -0.39 0.06 0.16 ROE adj (%) -48.4 9.7 21.6 EPS adj 0.46 -0.36 -0.39 0.06 0.16 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -16.3 72.4 66.5 Sales growth (%) -4.1 5.0 2.8 3.4 10.2 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -16.3 72.4 66.5 EPS growth (%) 115.5 -183.1 -7.8 116.0 162.3 Net IB debt/EBITDA 6.4 5.2 4.3 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 6.4 5.2 4.3

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Archer Limited

Key estimates Factset 5% 3% 3% 10% Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q419e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 233 226 236 228 225 226 220 2% 889 914 945 1,041 909 965 1,050 EBITDA 24 25 23.5 23.4 19 23 19.2 -3% 72 90 104 116 88 101 112 EBITDA margins 10.4% 11.1% 10.0% 10.3% 8.2% 10.0% 8.1% 9.9% 11.0% 11.1% 9.7% 10.5% 10.7% EBITDA adj. 27 25 24 25.4 23.6 23 19.2 22.9% 89 97 EBITDA adj. margins 11.5% 11.1% 10.0% 11.2% 10.5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.7% EBIT 11 12 11 11 6 10 4.2 48% 15 41 56 70 39 53 64 EBIT margins 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 5% 2% 4% 6% 7% Net profit -30 1 3.5 -57 -6 -1 -6.4 -53 -58 9 24 -58 8 21 # avg. shares 147 147 147 147 147 147 147 147 147 147 EPS -0.21 0.01 0.02 -0.38 -0.04 -0.01 -0.04 -7% -0.36 -0.39 0.06 0.16 -0.39 0.06 0.15 DPS (NOK)

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 606 605 616 617 617 607 606 617 578 578 Gross cash 32 32 51 19 40 41 32 40 41 78 NIBD 575 573 565 599 577 566 575 577 537 500 NIBD/share (NOK) 33 33 34 37 36 35 33 32 30 28 Book equity/share (NOK) 10.0 8.6 9.2 5.9 5.7 5.6 8 5 6 7

Operating cash flow 36 4 18 -15 35 17 37 42 68 67 Free cash flow 22 2 13 -30 21 11 30 6 40 37 Free cash flow /share (NOK) 1.3 0.1 0.8 -1.8 1.3 1 1.7 0.3 2.2 2.0

Other key figures and assumptions (Segment EBITDA is excluding restructuring)

Eastern Hemisphere Revenues 151 145 155 155 154 156 526 610 664 746 EBITDA 15.3 15.2 15.1 16.5 16.0 16.4 52 62 79 85 % 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 11% 10% 10% 12% 11%

Western Hemisphere Revenues 82.3 80.4 80.3 72.3 71.4 70.2 364 304 281 295 EBITDA 13.9 12.0 9.7 8.7 3.4 7.2 45 34 29 35 % 17% 15% 12% 12% 5% 10% 12% 11% 10% 12%

Corporate Revenues 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBITDA -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -8 -6 -4 -4

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 69

BW Offshore Reason: Preview of results Focus shifting to FPSO in 2020e

 We expect USD 163m in Q4 EBITDA

 Refinancing complete, increasing focus on FPSO Estimate changes (%)  Soon ready for a moderate dividend 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Stable EBITDA despite Umoroa hit EBIT (rep) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% We expect USD 163m in Q4 EBITDA, close to the USD 162m in Q3. This EPS (rep) 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% is despite the ~USD 13m in expected charges related to Umoroa where Source: ABG Sundal Collier the client has entered voluntary administration, driven by a likely Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 64.3 (depending on timing) higher realised oil price in BW Energy. We expect BWO to end the year with ~USD 1bn in NIBD, implying quite moderate Target price (70.0) 70.0 leverage. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway Important FPSO triggers ahead BWO.OL/BWO NO BWO had considerable progress in 2019, with reserve increases on Dussafu, several FPSO extensions and completion of the bank and bond MCap (NOKm) 11,893 refinancing. These very positive developments will be tough to match this MCap (EURm) 1,205.9 year. However, we do see further potential on the FPSO side in 2020; Net debt (EURm) 882 extensions on Vicente and Pioneer will be important, while we also expect a conclusion on Mateus. The client on Polvo has also announced No. of shares (m) 185 that it is starting a revitalization plan. In addition to redeployment of Free float (%) 50.0 Berge Helene (Maromba), some higher probability newbuild Av. daily volume (k) na opportunities, such as Sea Lion, are approaching possible final investment decision (FID). Next event Q4 report: 28 Feb Soon ready to restart dividend payments Performance Following the completed refinancing, we await completion of the BW 300 Energy RBL expected in Q1’20 before the first dividend is likely to be declared. It may be that BWO would like the BW Energy IPO completed 250 as well. However, during the year we expect a moderate dividend 200

(capped by bond loan covenants of 50% of previous year’s net profit to 150 max USD 0.25/share). Our SOTP at USD 65 Brent stands at NOK 100 80/share, hence valuation looks quite attractive. We maintain HOLD with

a target price of NOK 70. Q4 results will be announced on 28 February. 50

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May 18 May May 19 May Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 BW Offshore OSE GI [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 6.8 -5.7 63.2 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 17.1 11.7 7.4 Sales 626 870 1,128 1,090 1,113 P/E adj (x) 16.7 11.7 7.4 EBITDA 336 489 703 657 689 EBITDA margin (%) 53.7 56.2 62.4 60.3 61.9 P/BVPS (x) 1.26 1.23 1.14 EBIT adj 110 153 308 254 351 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 3.5 3.1 EBIT adj margin (%) 17.6 17.5 27.3 23.3 31.5 EV/EBIT adj (x) 7.5 9.0 6.1 Pretax profit 44 77 183 186 286 EV/sales (x) 2.05 2.10 1.94 EPS rep 0.21 0.16 0.42 0.62 0.97 ROE adj (%) 7.8 10.6 15.9 EPS adj 0.37 0.13 0.43 0.62 0.97 Dividend yield (%) 0 2.9 3.5 FCF yield (%) 19.6 4.9 13.5 Sales growth (%) -25.9 39.0 29.6 -3.4 2.0 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 19.6 4.9 13.5 EPS growth (%) 362.4 -26.8 170.5 45.8 57.4 Net IB debt/EBITDA 1.4 1.5 1.2 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 1.4 1.5 1.2

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

BW Offshore

Key estimates (100% consolidation of BW Energy) FactSet Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 255 296 286 267 278 241 278 0% 870 1,128 1,090 1,113 1,122 1,073 1,023 EBITDA 149 187 192 162 163 135 168 -3% 489 703 657 689 708 671 661 EBITDA margins 58% 63% 67% 61% 59% 56% 56% 62% 60% 62% EBIT 64 83 91 66 68 41 71 -5% 158 307 254 351 309 290 345 EBIT margins 25% 28% 32% 25% 24% 17% 18% 27% 23% 32% Net profit 10 27 29 5 23 15 23 0% 29 78 114 180 83.5 147.0 181.5 Shares 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 EPS 0.06 0.15 0.16 0.03 0.12 0.08 0.26 0.16 0.42 0.62 0.97 0.45 0.80 0.98 DPS (NOK) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.91 2.47 0.00 0.00 0.00

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 1,374 1,328 1,337 1,282 1,629 1,201 1,374 1,629 1,109 983 Gross cash 142 177 265 260 641 138 142 641 148 157 NIBD 1,232 1,151 1,072 1,022 988 1,062 1,232 988 961 827 NIBD/share (NOK) 56.6 52.9 49.2 50.8 49.1 51.7 55.5 44.5 41.5 38.5 Book equity/share (NOK) 60.7 62.0 63.1 51.0 53.0 51.9 44.9 48.0 47.0 54.5

Operating cash flow 43 155 142 152 111 66 436 559 434 462 Free cash flow -9 107 126 58 12 -75 100 302 66 180 Free cash flow /share (NOK) -0.4 4.9 5.8 2.9 0.6 -3.6 5 13.1 2.8 8.8

Other key figures and assumptions

FPSO & Eliminations, USDm Revenues 225 212 230 218 220 213 831 879 836 793 EBITDA 134 132 149 127 119 125 468 527 490 453

Oil & Gas, USDm Revenues 31 84 56 50 59 28 39 249 254 320 EBITDA 15 54 43 35 44 10 21 176 168 236

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

Sum-of-the-Parts estimate Firm Option+scrap Value Asset Stake Firm Option WACC 8% WACC 10% USDm FPSO Assets Sendje Berge 100% 2018 2,020 25 15 40 Berge Helene 100% 2017 - 0 15 15 Cidade de Sao Vicente 100% 2019 2,024 0 105 105 Yuum K'ak Naab 100% 2022 2,025 67 51 118 Catcher after pref issue (~27.5%) 100% 2025 2042 575 612 1187 BW Joko Tole 100% 2022 2,026 37 109 147 BW Pioneer 100% 2020 - 13 156 168 BW Athena 100% 2016 - 0 0 50 Cidade de Sao Mateus 100% 2018 2,024 0 0 -35 FPSO Adolo 100% - 0 0 172 Umoroa 100% 2019 2,022 0 0 0 Polvo 100% 2019 2,022 0 40 40 Abo 100% 2019 2,019 0 49 49 Espoir Ivorien 100% 2022 2,036 44 95 139 Petroleo Nautipa 100% 2020 2,022 12 27 39 Endeavour 100% - 2,019 0 0 0 Madura Jaya 100% - 2,019 0 0 0 Peregrino operation agreement 100%

BW Energy (assumed 68.5% share as post BWE spin-off) 1.0x Dussafu 2P 112.4 mmboe 772 Dussafu 2C 10mmboe 85 Kudu 0 Maromba 25

Gross Asset value 774 1,274 3,117

Maintenance capex 5y@50m - Life extension on Abo, Espoir, Nautipa, Polvo and some on rest of fleet -200 Net debt (incl other liabilities to capture timing difference in modelled day rate vs cash flow and swaps) -1,056 NPV of SG&A (USD 33m in 2018) -201

Fair value of equity 1,661

Shares 185 USD/NOK 8.9 SOTP/Share, NOK 80

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 71

Kongsberg Gruppen Reason: Preview of results Stable earnings in Q4e – focus on dividend

 We expect underlying EBITDA close to Q3 levels

 Book-to-bill below 1x for the first time in 4 quarters Estimate changes (%)  Moderate upside – high dividend potential 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% KDA seasonally up, KM seasonally down EBIT (rep) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% We expect NOK 7bn in revenues and NOK 626m in EBITDA in Q4, EPS (rep) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% including NOK 70m in restructuring charges. Therefore, we expect Source: ABG Sundal Collier underlying EBITDA of NOK 696m to be close to the underlying Q3 level Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 148.9 of NOK 687m. We expect a normal seasonal pattern with solid activity and margins in KDA, including Patria. This is offset by lower margins for Target price (160.0) 165.0 KM, as R&D expenses increase sequentially (only two months of activity in Q3). We have modelled underlying CM to improve marginally from Q3 Aerospace & Defense, Norway (from 2% to 3% EBITDA margins), while it still dilutes KM’s overall KOG.OL/KOG NO margins markedly. We expect KOG to end the year with NOK 2bn in NIBD, all of which is explained by operational leases. MCap (NOKm) 26,668 MCap (EURm) 2,704.2 No large contract announcements in the quarter Net debt (EURm) 177 KOG has announced ~NOK 1.8bn of contracts in the quarter, driven by numerous smaller awards. We expect a total intake of ~NOK 6bn, with a No. of shares (m) 179 book-to-bill of 0.9x. This is the first time since Q4’18 that the book-to-bill Free float (%) 41.7 is below 1x. However, there is still a major potential in 2020 for large Av. daily volume (k) na defence contracts (Qatar, NSM, etc.) and KM looks stable.

Overcapitalised, with strong FCF ahead Next event Q4 report: 12 Feb With a softer order intake, strong share price performance and significant Performance positive surprises related to CM in recent quarters, the short-term 170 potential in the share is likely capped somewhat. However, we think the 160 company is looking to be more generous with its distribution to 150 shareholders, and we think we could see this coming through in the Q4 140 130 presentation, through either extraordinary dividends or a share buy-back 120 programme. We therefore maintain our BUY rating with a TP of NOK 165 110 (160). The Q4 report is due out on 12 February. 100 90

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May 17 May May 18 May Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 19 May Kongsberg Gruppen OSE GI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 4.7 16.8 25.5 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e NOKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 47.3 22.0 14.7 Sales 14,490 14,381 22,885 27,676 30,190 P/E adj (x) 31.0 17.1 12.4 EBITDA 1,279 1,394 2,054 2,805 3,414 P/BVPS (x) 2.09 1.94 1.78 EBITDA margin (%) 8.8 9.7 9.0 10.1 11.3 EBIT adj 1,043 951 927 1,563 2,206 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.8 9.5 7.3 EBIT adj margin (%) 7.2 6.6 4.1 5.6 7.3 EV/EBIT adj (x) 30.6 17.1 11.3 Pretax profit 654 844 718 1,479 2,203 EV/sales (x) 1.24 0.97 0.82 EPS rep 4.62 3.91 3.15 6.76 10.11 ROE adj (%) 6.8 11.8 14.9 EPS adj 7.83 4.47 4.80 8.72 11.97 Dividend yield (%) 1.0 2.1 3.1 FCF yield (%) -2.1 5.6 7.7 Sales growth (%) -8.6 -0.8 59.1 20.9 9.1 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -3.4 4.1 6.2 EPS growth (%) -15.3 -15.2 -19.6 114.8 49.6 Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.8 0.0 -0.5 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0.2 -0.6 -1.0

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Kongsberg Gruppen

Key estimates FactSet -1% 3% 30% 9% Cons. Cons. Cons. NOKm Q4 (18) Q1 (19) Q2'19 Q3 (19) Q4 (19e) Q1 (20e) Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 4,148 3,627 6,244 6,046 6,968 5,981 6,962 0% 14,381 22,885 27,676 30190 22,872 27,676 30,636 EBITDA 520 414 479 535 626 540 636 -2% 1,394 2,054 2,805 3414 2,073 2,813 3,521 EBITDA margins 12.5% 11.4% 7.7% 8.8% 9.0% 9.0% 9.1% 9.7% 9.0% 10.1% 11.3% 9.1 % 10.2 % 11.5 % Adj EBITDA (excl restructuring) 605 386 564 687 696 561 1504 2333 2888 3434 EBITA 427 261 251 322 389 315 1,044 1,223 1,915 2538 1,191 2,006 2,721 EBITA margins 10% 7% 4% 5% 6% 5% 7% 5% 7% 8% 5.2% 7.2% 8.9% EBIT 406 239 160 230 298 225 324 -8% 945 927 1,563 2206 969 1,571 2,355 EBIT margins 10% 7% 3% 4% 4% 4% 7% 4% 6% 7% Net profit 344 170 73 115 210 167 217 -3% 701 564 1,211 1811 579 1,209 1,811 # avg. shares 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 EPS 2.4 0.95 0.41 0.62 1.2 0.9 1.32 -11% 3.9 3.1 6.8 10.1 3.2 6.7 10.1

DPS declared (NOK) 2.50 1.5 1.5 4.7 2.5 3.0 4.6

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 4,332 4,348 6,532 6,208 6,012 4,816 4,332 6,012 3,904 1,620 Gross cash 10,038 10,389 4,522 3,667 3,996 3,441 10,038 3,996 3,831 3,430 NIBD -5,706 -6,041 2,010 2,541 2,016 1,375 -5,706 2,016 73 -1,810 NIBD/share (NOK) -32 -34 11 14 11 8 -32 11 0 -10 Book equity/share (NOK) 105 71 69 70 72 73 70 72 77 84

Operating cash flow 1,324 590 -461 -360 337 704 2,189 106 2,235 2,867 Free cash flow 1,201 502 -5,304 -532 427 543 1,817 -4,907 1,487 2,052 Free cash flow /share (NOK) 6.7 2.8 -29.6 -3.0 2.4 3.0 10 -27 8 11

Other key figures and assumptions

Group YoY 10% 2% 77% 92% 68% 65% 0% 57% 21% 9% Revenues 4,148 3,627 6,244 6,046 6,968 5,981 14539 22885 27676 30190 EBITDA 605 414 479 535 626 540 1470 2054 2805 3414 % 15% 11% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 11% KM (incl legacy KM and CM) YoY 9% 15% 15% 20% 20% 3% 2% 6% Revenues 2041 2072 4221 4255 4553 3989 7545 15101 17533 18654 EBITDA 225 238 205 271 296 284 594 1010 1425 1798 % 11.0% 11.5% 4.9% 6.4% 6.5% 7.1% 7.9% 7% 8.1% 9.6% Backlog

CM (included in KM from Q2'19, integration costs is included in the estimate) YoY -15% 10% -1% 0% -15% 5% -1% 5% 10% Revenues 2475 1871 2029 2089 2104 1965 8215 8093 8497 9347 EBITDA -6 -64 -63 -74 24 10 0 -113 227 477 % 0% -3% 1% 2% 3% 0% 0% -1% 3% 5% Underlying EBITDA -64 52 77 94 31 159.1 309.7 498 KDA YoY 13% -14% 27% 34% 16% 30% -4% 14% 33% 15% Revenues 1898 1369 1829 1578 2202 1780 6104 6978 9291 10685 EBITDA 371 171 291 248 327 248 863 1037 1349 1584 % 19.5% 12.5% 15.9% 15.7% 14.9% 13.9% 14% 15% 15% 15%

KDI/Other Revenues 209 186 194 213 213 213 732 806 852 852 EBITDA 9 5 -17 16 3 8 -63 7 32 32

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

Dividend capacity 2022 targets Revenues 30.0 margins 12.0% IFRS 16 0.45 Total EBITDA 4.05 margin 13.5% D&A -1.2 EBIT 2.85 NF -0.14 EBT 2.71 tax rate 15% NI 2.3 shares 179.1 EPS 13

21e NIBD ex lease -3,046 Max leverage 1x 4050 Max divi capacity 7,096 Max DPS '20-22 40

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 73

Kvaerner Reason: Preview of results Heading into a tough 2020

 No clarity on dividends for ‘19

 Tough 2020 without clear path to recovery Estimate changes (%)  Value support in net cash, but it is being burned - HOLD 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% CMD guidance with limited clarity on Q4 and dividends EBIT (rep) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% At KVAER’s CMD in December, it presented updated guidance for ‘19 of EPS (rep) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% NOK 9.3bn in revenues and 5-6% EBITDA margins. The margin range Source: ABG Sundal Collier implies Q4 EBITDA of NOK 61-154m; we have modelled a 5.5% FY Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 11.0 margin and forecast NOK 117m in Q4 EBITDA. KVAER has announced the NOK 1.5bn Hywind Tampen contract, and we estimate ~NOK 2.2bn Target price (12.0) 12.0 in order intake in the quarter, corresponding to a book-to-bill of ~0.8x. We forecast a slight seasonal downtick in the working capital towards NOK Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway -0.5bn, vs. the new guided range of NOK 0 to NOK -1bn, and a net cash KVAER.OL/KVAER NO position of NOK 8.7/share. While the CMD contained no commentaries on dividends, we think it is possible that KVAER will declare a dividend MCap (NOKm) 2,959 for ’19. The lack of visibility, however, means we have not included this in MCap (EURm) 300.0 our forecast. Net debt (EURm) -237 Steep drop in ’20e earnings, uncertain recovery No. of shares (m) 269 KVAER is transitioning from its traditional Norway/topside-focused Free float (%) 42.0 business to a more diversified (decom, offshore wind, FPSO), Av. daily volume (k) na international future. With only moderate growth on a global basis, this implies KVAER is competing in a market that remains highly competitive, and it needs to execute projects different from those for which it has built Next event Q4 report: 12 Feb a strong execution track record. In this new reality, estimating KVAER’s Performance earnings power is much more uncertain than it has used to be. We 180 estimate EBITDA of only NOK 191m in ‘20, and visibility towards 170 recovery remains low. 160 150 140 Downside protection, but no upside momentum - HOLD 130 120 KVAER’s medium-term prospects are highly uncertain, but the share 110 price is likely to find downside support from the net cash + backlog NPV 100

value of ~NOK 10/share. We maintain HOLD with a TP of NOK 12. 90

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May 18 May May 19 May Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 Kvaerner OSE GI [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) -13.0 -1.9 -14.1 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e NOKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 11.7 214.9 25.5 Sales 6,534 7,220 9,332 6,225 7,325 P/E adj (x) 10.4 214.9 25.5 EBITDA 796 436 517 191 323 EBITDA margin (%) 12.2 6.0 5.5 3.1 4.4 P/BVPS (x) 0.86 0.86 0.83 EBIT adj 690 326 361 28 161 EV/EBITDA (x) 1.1 3.4 1.2 EBIT adj margin (%) 10.6 4.5 3.9 0.5 2.2 EV/EBIT adj (x) 1.6 23.3 2.4 Pretax profit 1,384 664 653 47 315 EV/sales (x) 0.06 0.11 0.05 EPS rep 2.07 1.03 0.94 0.05 0.43 ROE adj (%) 17.9 1.2 7.9 EPS adj 1.89 1.03 1.06 0.05 0.43 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -14.3 -3.2 9.0 Sales growth (%) -17.2 10.5 29.3 -33.3 17.7 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -16.0 -4.8 7.3 EPS growth (%) 86.0 -50.0 -8.9 -94.6 741.9 Net IB debt/EBITDA -4.5 -11.8 -7.8 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -5.3 -17.0 -9.5

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Kvaerner

Key estimates FactSet FactSet FactSet FactSet NOKm Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 1,764 1,715 2,115 1,876 2,450 2,888 1,781 2,626 10% 13,946 12,084 7,896 6,534 7,220 9,332 6,225 7,325 9,069 6,406 7,135 adjEBITDA 75 60 137 132 135 117 61 110 6% 829 574 631 796 436 517 191 323 512 266 341 adjEBITDA margins 4.3% 3.5% 6.5% 7.0% 5.5% 4.0% 3.4% 4.2% 5.9% 4.8% 8.0% 12.2% 6.0% 5.5% 3.1% 4.4% 5.6% 4.2% 4.8% EBIT 48 49 88 90 73 77 21 65 18% 493 494 333 690 326 329 28 161 319 109 187 EBIT margins 3% 3% 4.2% 5% 3% 3% 1% 2.5% 3.5% 4.1% 4.2% 10.6% 4.5% 3.5% 0.5% 2.2% Net profit 37 87 57 69 72 54 14 45 21% 29 339 87 509 278 255 14 116 248.5 86.0 196.3 # avg. shares 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 EPS cont ops 0.14 0.32 0.21 0.26 0.27 0.20 0.05 0.17 21% 0.11 1.26 0.32 1.89 1.03 0.95 0.05 0.43 0.93 0.27 0.53 DPS 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 0 0 283 273 124 112 103 487 0 0 0 0 112 75 38 Gross cash 2,929 3,165 2,877 2,714 2,420 2,447 2,397 1,208 1,560 3,047 2,812 3,165 2,447 2,316 2,544 NIBD -2,929 -3,165 -2,594 -2,441 -2,296 -2,335 -2,294 -721 -1,560 -3,047 -2,812 -3,165 -2,335 -2,241 -2,506 NIBD/share (NOK) -10.9 -11.8 -9.6 -9.1 -8.5 -8.7 -8.5 -2.7 -5.8 -11.3 -10.5 -11.8 -8.7 -8.3 -9.3 Book equity/share (NOK) 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 9 9 10 12 13 13 13 13

Operating cash flow 27 370 -208 227 -171 172 8 281 1,183 1,718 -113 719 20 56 365 Free cash flow -76 244 -277 126 -276 39 -42 25 1,131 1,517 -205 385 -389 -94 265 Free cash flow /share (NOK) -0.3 0.9 -1.0 0.5 -1.0 0.1 -0.2 0.1 4.2 5.6 -0.8 1.4 -1.4 -0.35 0.99

Other key figures and assumptions Field Development Sales 1,709 1,755 2,158 1,909 2,571 2,888 1,781 17531 14916 10355 7624 7254 9526 6225 7325 EBITDA 90 75 137 132 138 120 66 911 613 742 846 488 527 211 343 EBITDA margin 5.3% 4.3% 6.3% 6.9% 5.4% 4.2% 3.7% 5.2% 4.1% 7.2% 11.1% 6.7% 5.5% 3.4% 4.7%

Corporate Sales 55 -40 -39 -33 -122 0 0 -3585 -2832 -2459 -1090 -34 -194 0 0 EBITDA -15 -15 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -82 -39 -111 -50 -55 -10 -20 -20 Order intake 1149 1723 1691 732 1830 Backlog 10638 10625 10196 9037 8,337

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Factset

Backlog coverage 5,000 20,000

631 714 18,000 4,000 16,000 4,077 88 14,000 3,000 304 604 875 12,000 6,788 4,246 2,000 4,036 3,871 10,000 120 2,239 NOKm 3,246 3,548 8,000 3,888 2,400 2,519 2,584 1,000 2,179 13,454 1,723 1,808 6,000 3,006 2,658 2,223 8,715 8,128 4,000 7,200 8,116 0 5,638 -151 -53 4,618 4,596 Q3 (11) Q3 (12) Q3 (13) Q3 (14) Q3 (15) Q3 (16) Q3 (17) Q3 (18) Q3 (19) 2,000 4,002 0 -1,000 Q3 (11) Q3 (12) Q3 (13) Q3 (14) Q3 (15) Q3 (16) Q3 (17) Q3 (18) Q3 (19) In backlog for Q4 New order required to meet Q4 revenue estimate In backlog for next year Orders booked to arrive at next year's revenues

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

Share price vs. net cash position 20.0

18.0

16.0

3.1 14.0 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.0 3.7 4.2 2.8 3.9 2.9 1.6 4.6 12.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 3.0 1.1 3.0 1.1 1.4 1.2 10.0 3.1 1.3 1.3 3.1 3.1 1.5 1.2 0.9 NOK/share 8.0 2.7 2.6 1.2 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.0 1.7 1.4 3.4 6.0 3.2 2.0 11.2 11.4 11.0 11.0 2.3 10.1 10.8 2.2 9.5 10.0 9.3 9.8 2.7 2.5 8.4 8.6 8.7 4.0 3.0 7.6 2.7 2.3 6.4 6.5 4.7 2.0 3.7 4.3 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.3 2.0 0.0

Net cash (adj to normal WC) Cash flow in backlog Fixed Assets (book value) Share price

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 75

Ocean Yield Reason: Preview of results Loading…

 We are largely in line with consensus for Q4

 FPSO option expired W/O extension, focus on other leads Estimate changes (%)  Buy for 11% dividend yield and potential trigger in FPSO 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales -0.5% 0.6% 0.3% Q4: We are largely in line with consensus EBIT (rep) -2.9% -1.7% -7.3% We estimates Ocean Yield to announce Q4 revenues of USD 67m, in EPS (rep) 4.9% -2.5% -12.2% line with consensus at USD 66m, and net profit estimate of USD 14.7m is Source: ABG Sundal Collier in line with consensus at USD 14.9m. Thus, we do not expect a share Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 48.2 reaction on the Q4 numbers. Target price (63.0) 60.0 Portfolio continues development, but FPSO contract awaits We make some modest revisions to our longer-term estimates to reflect Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation, Norway the development in the portfolio where Navig8 Chemical Tankers has OCY.OL/OCY NO declared a purchase option on the Navig8 Aquamarine for USD 26.5m effective end-June ‘20. We find it likely that a similar option for a further MCap (NOKm) 8,445 two vessels will be called in January. We view this as part of the natural MCap (EURm) 856.4 development of the portfolio. For the FPSO, Aker Energy’s option expired Net debt (EURm) 1,762 end-December without further extensions. The option was initially agreed on 12 February and has later been extended three times. We view it as No. of shares (m) 175 less likely that OCY and Aker Energy will reach an agreement, and that it Free float (%) 43.9 will pursue work with other counterparties. Av. daily volume (k) na We reiterate BUY, with TP NOK 60 (63) Ocean Yield will commence dividend payments on the lower dividend Next event Q4 report: 12 Feb trajectory of USD 0.15/quarter from Q1’20. We estimate the ‘20e-‘21e Performance adj. pay-out ratio on the lowered trajectory to be 97% and 86%, and we 150 find the dividend yield of 11% compelling. Further, we view a contract for 140 the FPSO as the key trigger for the share going forwards. Timing here is 130 clearly uncertain, but should Ocean Yield be able to secure work for the 120 vessel we argue for dividend yield compression on higher earnings 110 100 potential in the portfolio. The historical dividend yield has been 9.4%, 90 implying a share price of NOK 56. However, if we exclude a troublesome 80

2019, the average yield has been 8.8%. We reiterate BUY, TP NOK 60 70

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May 17 May May 18 May (63). 19 May Ocean Yield OSE GI

Lead analyst: [email protected], + 47 22 01 61 65 1m 3m 12m [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 Absolute (%) 2.6 -9.2 -19.5 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -26.2 10.5 9.2 Sales 339 343 258 290 295 P/E adj (x) 17.6 8.8 7.8 EBITDA 306 283 225 267 276 EBITDA margin (%) 90.4 82.3 87.1 91.9 93.7 P/BVPS (x) 1.06 1.06 1.03 EBIT adj 204 152 79 203 213 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 9.6 8.7 EBIT adj margin (%) 60.1 44.2 30.4 70.2 72.3 EV/EBIT adj (x) 34.6 12.6 11.3 Pretax profit 150 62 -28 109 122 EV/sales (x) 10.53 8.85 8.16 EPS rep 0.87 0.37 -0.21 0.52 0.59 ROE adj (%) 4.4 10.1 11.4 EPS adj 0.98 0.64 0.31 0.62 0.70 Dividend yield (%) 14.1 11.1 11.1 FCF yield (%) -48.2 25.3 25.6 Sales growth (%) 15.2 1.3 -24.8 12.3 1.6 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -48.2 25.3 25.6 EPS growth (%) 67.1 -57.9 -156.3 349.3 14.7 Net IB debt/EBITDA 8.8 6.9 6.2 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 6.6 5.2 4.8

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Ocean Yield

Key estimates Ocean Yield Ocean Yield FactSet FactSet Cons. Cons. FactSet FactSet Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Income Statement Net sales 64.2 58.4 66.5 66.3 67.0 70.9 66.0 2% 343.4 258.2 290.0 294.5 276.9 279.7 Net sales 64.2 58.4 66.5 66.3 67.0 70.9 66.0 2% 343.4 258.2 290.0 294.5 276.9 279.7 EBITDA 35.5 51.9 56.8 57.3 58.8 63.2 64.0 -8% 282.7 224.8 266.6 276.0 258.0 267.1 EBITDA 35.5 51.9 56.8 57.3 58.8 63.2 64.0 -8% 282.7 224.8 266.6 276.0 258.0 267.1 EBITDA margins 55% 89% 85% 86% 88% 89% 97% 82% 87% 92% 94% 93% 95% EBITDA margins 55% 89% 85% 86% 88% 89% 97% 82% 87% 92% 94% 93% 95% EBIT -15.9 32.6 33.1 -30.2 43.1 47.4 40.9 5% 151.8 78.6 203.5 212.9 189.4 206.7 EBIT -15.9 32.6 33.1 -30.2 43.1 47.4 40.9 5% 151.8 78.6 203.5 212.9 189.4 206.7 EBIT margins -25% 56% 50% -46% 64% 67% 62% 44% 30% 70% 72% 68% 74% EBIT margins -25% 56% 50% -46% 64% 67% 62% 44% 30% 70% 72% 68% 74% Net profit -50.1 8.2 5.3 -63.5 14.7 18.6 14.9 -2% 57.2 -35.3 90.5 103.8 67.3 88.9 Net profit -50.1 8.2 5.3 -63.5 14.7 18.6 14.9 -2% 57.2 -35.3 90.5 103.8 67.3 88.9 EPS -0.31 0.05 0.03 -0.40 0.08 0.11 0.09 -2% 0.36 -0.20 0.52 0.59 0.41 0.60 EPS -0.31 0.05 0.03 -0.40 0.08 0.11 0.09 -2% 0.36 -0.20 0.52 0.59 0.41 0.60 DPS 0.1910 0.1910 0.1910 0.1910 0.1910 0.1500 0.1910 0% 0.7635 0.7640 0.6000 0.6000 0.6000 0.6000 DPS 0.1910 0.1910 0.1910 0.1910 0.1910 0.1500 0.1910 0% 0.7635 0.7640 0.6000 0.6000 0.6000 0.6000

Adj. Net sales 80.0 74.3 84.2 89.9 88.6 95.2 n.m. 394.2 337.0 386 380 Adj. Net sales 80.0 74.3 84.2 89.9 88.6 95.2 n.m. 394.2 337.0 386 380 Adj. EBITDA 51.3 67.8 74.5 80.8 80.4 87.5 n.m. 333.6 303.5 362.8 361.6 Adj. EBITDA 51.3 67.8 74.5 80.8 80.4 87.5 n.m. 333.6 303.5 362.8 361.6 Adj. Net Profit 12.5 8.4 11.3 11.0 19.2 23.1 n.m. 101.2 51.6 108.5 121.8 Adj. Net Profit 12.5 8.4 11.3 11.0 19.2 23.1 n.m. 101.2 51.6 108.5 121.8 Adj. EPS 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.64 0.31 0.62 0.70 Adj. EPS 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.64 0.31 0.62 0.70

Key BS and CF figures Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 1,763 1,830 1,928 1,973 2,089 2,090 1,762.9 2,088.5 2,007.1 1,802.7 Gross interest bearing debt 1,763 1,830 1,928 1,973 2,089 2,090 1,762.9 2,088.5 2,007.1 1,802.7 Gross cash 126 123 105 202 114 111 126.1 114.0 162.7 96.5 Gross cash 126 123 105 202 114 111 126.1 114.0 162.7 96.5 NIBD 1,635 1,705 1,822 1,769 1,973 1,978 1,935.7 2% 1,636.8 1,974.5 1,844.4 1,706.2 1,861.0 1,754.0 NIBD 1,635 1,705 1,822 1,769 1,973 1,978 1,935.7 2% 1,636.8 1,974.5 1,844.4 1,706.2 1,861.0 1,754.0 NIBD/share (USD) 10.3 10.7 11.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.0 2% 10.3 11.3 10.5 9.7 10.6 10.0 NIBD/share (USD) 10.3 10.7 11.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.0 2% 10.3 11.3 10.5 9.7 10.6 10.0 Book equity/share (USD) 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 2% 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.8 Book equity/share (USD) 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 2% 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.8 Capex 163.9 91.9 121.5 120.5 308.2 27.5 176.2 75% 518.6 642.1 1.0 0.0 40.0 0.0 Capex 163.9 91.9 121.5 120.5 308.2 27.5 176.2 75% 518.6 642.1 1.0 0.0 40.0 0.0

Operating cash flow 26.5 40.2 21.8 29.9 34.0 30.3 33.1 3% 192.5 125.9 145.7 157.8 125.0 144.0 Operating cash flow 26.5 40.2 21.8 29.9 34.0 30.3 33.1 3% 192.5 125.9 145.7 157.8 125.0 144.0 Free cash flow -121.7 -35.8 -82.0 -67.0 -252.5 27.1 -228.9 -437.3 241.0 243.3 Free cash flow -121.7 -35.8 -82.0 -67.0 -252.5 27.1 -228.9 -437.3 241.0 243.3 Free cash flow /share (USD) -0.8 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -1.4 0.2 -1.4 -2.5 1.4 1.4 Free cash flow /share (USD) -0.8 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -1.4 0.2 -1.4 -2.5 1.4 1.4

Eq.ratio 31.0% 30.2% 28.4% 28.3% 29.3% 29.1% 31.0% 29.3% 30.1% 32.8% Eq.ratio 31.0% 30.2% 28.4% 28.3% 29.3% 29.1% 31.0% 29.3% 30.1% 32.8% Covenant Eq. Ratio 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% Covenant Eq. Ratio 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Guidance: Guidance: Continue fleet grow th Continue fleet grow th Intends to cuntinue policy of paying attractive dividends Intends to cuntinue policy of paying attractive dividends Annual investments USD 350m Annual investments USD 350m

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, FactSet

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 77

Prosafe Reason: Preview of results An option with limited value

 Heading into its toughest year to date

 Restructuring more likely than merger in 2020 Estimate changes (%)  Limited value left for shareholders 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Expecting utilisation ~33% in 2020e EBIT (rep) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% In Q4, PRS has Notos and Eurus in operation for the full quarter while EPS (rep) 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% Boreas and Zephyrus completed contracts during October. The rest of Source: ABG Sundal Collier fleet was idle in the quarter. We estimate around 31% utilisation and Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 4.1 ~USD 6m in EBITDA for Q4. This, along with some potential working capital fluctuations, implies NIBD growing to USD 1.25bn in the quarter. Target price (5.0) 5.0

Appeal sent, conclusion in Q1’20e Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway Prosafe and Floatel continue to push for approval of their merger, and PRSO.OL/PRS NO have sent an appeal to the Norwegian Competition Authorities following its rejection. A conclusion to this appeal, and the UK’s evaluation, are MCap (NOKm) 361 expected during Q1’20e. Based on the scepticism so far, we consider the MCap (EURm) 36.6 probability of approval to be moderate at best. PRS has ~USD 130m Net debt (EURm) 1,112 debt amortisation in ’21 with the main fleet facility maturing in ’23, and has already started discussions with its lenders. We initially expect this to No. of shares (m) 88.0 result in a postponement of the ’21 maturities, but consider the current Free float (%) 55.0 capital structure unsustainable for the long run. Hence, at some point a Av. daily volume (k) na more thorough restructuring will be required, in our opinion.

Stay away until restructured Next event Q4 report: 06 Feb PRS has written down its equity to USD 14m (current market cap USD Performance 35m), and we estimate that the age-adjusted replacement cost is close to 160 zero. With current offshore asset prices marked considerably below this, 140 we expect the equity value to be close to zero and hence consider the 120 share an option with limited value. We recommend equity investors to 100 80 stay away until a proper restructuring has been completed and stick to 60 HOLD with TP NOK 5. The Q4 results are due on 6 February. 40 20

Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 0

Jul 17 Jul Jul 18 Jul

[email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 19 Jul

Jan 17 Jan

Jan 18 Jan

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Jan 20 Jan

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Mar 18 Mar

Mar 19 Mar

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Nov 18 Nov

Sep 19 Sep

Nov 19 Nov

May 17 May May 18 May 19 May Prosafe OSE GI 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 39.0 -53.9 -77.0 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 Sales 283 331 238 177 251 P/E adj (x) -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 EBITDA 123 167 110 39 59 P/BVPS (x) -2.39 -0.33 -0.20 EBITDA margin (%) 43.4 50.4 46.2 22.3 23.5 EBIT adj -4 54 14 -44 -14 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.7 32.6 22.2 EBIT adj margin (%) -1.5 16.2 5.8 -24.8 -5.7 EV/EBIT adj (x) 93.0 -29.3 -92.2 Pretax profit -639 -109 -413 -105 -76 EV/sales (x) 5.39 7.26 5.22 EPS rep -7.35 -1.30 -4.90 -1.22 -0.89 ROE adj (%) -37.1 153.0 48.1 EPS adj -0.83 -1.29 -0.84 -1.22 -0.89 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -221.3 12.0 -69.7 Sales growth (%) -40.3 16.9 -28.0 -25.9 42.2 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -221.3 12.0 -69.7 EPS growth (%) -462.9 82.3 -276.7 75.1 26.9 Net IB debt/EBITDA 11.3 31.5 21.5 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 11.3 31.5 21.5

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Prosafe

Key estimates FactSet Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 74 74 67 75 57 39 38 35 11% 331 238 177 251 235 250 266 OPEX -43 -45 -43 -38 -30 -33 -34 -29 -164 -128 -137 -192 EBITDA 31 29 24 53 26 6 4 6 8% 167 110 39 59 107 98 108 EBITDA margins 42% 39% 36% 71% 47% 17% 10% 50% 46% 22% 23% EBIT 3 -1 -7 28 -339 -14 -17 -16 11% 53 -332 -44 -14 9 -2 10 EBIT margins 4% -1% -10% 37% -601% -36% -45% 16% -139% -25% -6% Net profit -112 -26 -28 2 -361 -30 -33 -33 -114 -417 -107 -78 -419 -90 -48 # avg. shares 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 87.942 88 88 88 88 EPS -1.27 -0.29 -0.32 0.02 -4.09 -0.35 -0.37 -0.38 -1.30 -4.74 -1.22 -0.89 -4.87 -0.58 -0.40

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 1,391 1,243 1,215 1,246 1,430 1,404 1,396 1,243 1,404 1,372 1,347 Gross cash 266 140 109 121 216 156 175 140 156 129 76 NIBD 1,125 1,103 1,106 1,125 1,214 1,248 1,221 1,103 1,248 1,243 1,271 NIBD/share (NOK) 107 105 107 109 124 128 125 100 122 118 121 Book equity/share (NOK) 40 38 36 36 1.5 -2 -5 38 -2 -11 -20

Operating cash flow 27 26 15 18 39 -32 -12 44 -16 -24 -8 Free cash flow 22 28 10 -8 0.7 -34 27 40 -87 5 -28 Free cash flow /share (NOK) 2 3 1 -1 0.1 -4 3 4 -8 0 -3

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

Fleet & Contract overview Unit Region/spec Type 2019 2020 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 North Sea North Sea Safe Scandinavia NCS, DP SEMI MSV Regalia NCS, DP3 SEMI UK Safe Boreas NCS, DP3 SEMI Safe Zephyrus NCS, DP3 SEMI Clair Ridge Shearw ater, UK Safe Caledonia UK, DP2 SEMI UK UK SEMI Safe Nova UK, DP SEMI Safe Vega UK, DP SEMI Safe Eurus UK, DP SEMI Latin America Latin America

Safe Concordia Int., DP2 SEMI Modec Equinor, Peregrino Safe Notos UK, DP3 SEMI Safe Sw ift Int. MONO RoW RoW Safe Astoria Int., Moored SEMI

Firm contract Option Yard

Unit Region/spec Type 2019 2020 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Superior NCS, DP3 SEMI Sw itched to Endurance Victory UK, DP3 SEMI Triumph UK, DP3 SEMI Endurance NCS, DP3 SEMI Reliance Int. DP2 SEMI

Firm contract Option Yard

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 79

Subsea 7 Reason: Preview of results Another quarter with strong order intake

 EBITDA seasonally down in Q4e

 Backlog likely to support consensus Estimate changes (%)  Appealing FCF yield - BUY 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 0.0% 0.0% -1.8% We expect USD 138m in Q4 EBITDA EBIT (rep) 0.0% 0.0% -14.6% We expect USD 0.9bn in revenues (in line with the backlog in place at EPS (rep) 0.0% 0.0% -14.8% the end of Q3’19) and USD 138m in EBITDA in Q4. The Q4e 14.6% Source: ABG Sundal Collier margin is down from 19% last quarter, as the winter season is leading to Share price (NOK) 10/01/2020 105.6 a seasonally slower North Sea market in particular. The FY’19 FactSet consensus of USD 600m in EBITDA has been maintained throughout Target price (125.0) 125.0 ‘19, and the ’19 guidance was reiterated in the Q3’19 presentation. Therefore, while there is always significant uncertainty about quarterly Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Norway margins in SUBC, earnings expectations for Q4 appear reasonable, in SUBC.OL/SUBC NO our view. The Q4 report is due out on 26 February. MCap (NOKm) 31,872 ~74% Q4e backlog coverage of ’20 consensus MCap (EURm) 3,231.9 SUBC has announced about USD 0.75bn in orders in the quarter (mid- Net debt (EURm) 88 pint of announced ranges). Hence, we expect ~USD 1.1bn in total intake, which corresponds to a book-to-bill of 1.2x and around 1.08x for FY ’19 No. of shares (m) 302 (SUBC has guided for book-to-bill to exceed 1x in ‘19). We estimate that Free float (%) 78.2 the ‘20 backlog will climb to ~USD 3.1bn, which is 74% coverage of Av. daily volume (k) na consensus, close to the last two years. We have a slightly higher ‘20e revenue estimate driven by a very strong order pipeline for early ‘20e. We find consensus to be robust, and see our estimates as realistic if the Next event Q4 report: 26 Feb orders materialise early in the year. This is also key to providing visibility Performance for 2021, which is exposed to PLSV contracts rolling off. A reasonable 150 outcome here is likely important for the stock to perform well this year. 140 We have trimmed ‘21e EBITDA ~5% as we assume a slightly more 130 moderate margin recovery than previously. 120 110 100 Moderately improving earnings with low capex - BUY 90 We view SUBC as relatively well-positioned in this offshore regime, being 80

close to net cash with a double-digit FCF yield on ‘20e earnings, an 70

Jul 17 Jul

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Jan 17 Jan

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Sep 17 Sep

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May 17 May May 18 May active distribution policy (dividend and share buy-backs) and exposure to 19 May the growing offshore wind market. We maintain our BUY with unchanged Subsea 7 OSE GI estimates and TP of NOK 125. 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) 7.5 18.3 10.2 Lead analyst: [email protected], +47 22 01 60 25 OSE GI (%) 4.1 7.7 9.5 [email protected], +47 22 01 61 39 Source: FactSet 2019e 2020e 2021e USDm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 57.0 21.7 16.4 Sales 3,986 4,074 3,710 4,417 4,559 P/E adj (x) 57.0 21.7 16.4 EBITDA 1,034 668 600 719 780 EBITDA margin (%) 26.0 16.4 16.2 16.3 17.1 P/BVPS (x) 0.66 0.64 0.62 EBIT adj 581 238 115 257 328 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.0 4.6 3.7 EBIT adj margin (%) 14.6 5.9 3.1 5.8 7.2 EV/EBIT adj (x) 31.7 12.8 8.8 Pretax profit 554 217 95 245 323 EV/sales (x) 0.98 0.74 0.63 EPS rep 1.39 0.56 0.21 0.55 0.72 ROE adj (%) 1.1 3.0 3.9 EPS adj 1.39 0.68 0.21 0.55 0.72 Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.4 1.4 FCF yield (%) 6.0 11.5 12.4 Sales growth (%) 11.7 2.2 -8.9 19.0 3.2 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 3.1 8.6 9.5 EPS growth (%) 9.7 -59.4 -63.0 163.2 31.8 Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.2 -0.4 -0.8 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0.5 -0.8 -1.2

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Subsea 7

Key estimates FactSet Cons. Cons. Cons. USDm Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e Q1'20e Q4'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Net sales 1,023 859 958 951 943 991 1,013 -7% 4,074 3,710 4,417 4,559 3,751 4,185 4,494 EBITDA 163 111 171 181 138 140 143 -4% 668 600 719 780 599 694 771 EBITDA margins 15.9% 12.9% 17.8% 19.0% 14.6% 14% 14.2% 16.4% 16.2% 16.3% 17.1% 16.0% 16.6% 17.1% EBITDA adj. EBITDA adj. margins EBIT 23 -10 45 59 21 23 27 -21% 200 115 257 328 115 200 288 EBIT margins 2% -1% 4.7% 6% 2% 2% 4.9% 3.1% 5.8% 7.2% 3.1% 4.8% 6.4% Net profit 32 -19 24 42 10 13 15 183 62 164 217 63 131 193 # avg. shares 324 315 302 298 298 298 325 298 298 298 EPS 0.10 -0.06 0.08 0.15 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.56 0.21 0.55 0.72 0.20 0.43 0.62 DPS (NOK) 4.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8

Key BS and CF figures Gross interest bearing debt 258 566 641 608 582 556 258 582 479 377 Gross cash 765 666 420 371 483 533 765 483 739 1,025 NIBD -506 -100 221 237 99 23 -507 99 -259 -648 NIBD/share (NOK) -13 -3 6 7 3 1 -13 3 -7 -18 Book equity/share (NOK) 149 154 154 164 166 167 149 150 153 163

Operating cash flow 186 58 72 65 227 130 424 422 626 668 Free cash flow 146 12 15 3 138 75 -13 139 410 441 Free cash flow /share (NOK) 4 0 0 0 4 2 -0.3 4.2 12.5 13.5

Other key figures and assumptions Group, USDm YoY revenue grow th 2% 6% -17% -12% -8% 15% 2% -9% 19% 3% Revenues 1023 859 958 951 943 991 4074 3710 4417 4559 EBIT% 2% -1% 5% 6% 2% 2% 5% 3% 6% 7% EBIT 23 -10 45 59 21 23 200 115 257 328

SURF & Conventional YoY revenue grow th 16% 28% 0% -5% -5% 15% 16% 2% 19% 3% Revenues 873 747 842 826 829 858 3165 3244 3855 3971 EBIT% 7.3% 0.6% 7.1% 7.5% 3.0% 2.0% 7% 4.7% 5.8% 7% EBIT 64 4 60 62 25 17 231 151 222 273

Life-of-Field YoY revenue grow th 0% 16% 9% 6% -4% 15% -19% 6% 19% 3% Revenues 68 60 66 70 65 69 246 260 309 318 EBIT% -24.9% -5.4% -4.5% 9.2% 0.0% 2.0% -5% 0% 5.4% 9% EBIT -17 -3 -3 6 0 1 -12 0 17 28

Renew ables & Heavy-lift YoY revenue grow th -31% -69% 22% 7% Revenues 82 53 49 55 49 64 664 207 253 270 EBIT% -16% -17% -20% -14% -5% 5% 1% -14% 5.0% 8% EBIT -13 -9 -10 -8 -2 3 4 -29 13 22

Corporate Revenues 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT -11 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 -23 -8 5 5

Order intake, USDm 913 1100 358 1400 1075 Announced 425 700 225 950 725 Un-announced 488 400 133 450 350

Order backlog, USDm 4,900 5,200 4,594 4,917 4,917

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 81

Oil & Oil Services

Company financials

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 82

Akastor

Akastor Financial Statments (NOKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 17,234 18,597 21,434 14,797 7,461 4,423 4,053 5,245 5,509 6,119 COGS -15,376 -17,220 -20,054 -13,998 -7,253 -4,125 -3,686 -4,770 -5,019 -5,504 EBITDA 1,858 1,378 1,379 792 47 188 367 475 490 615 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -488 -1,005 -1,094 -1,122 -840 -624 -259 -263 -221 -213 EBITA 1,370 373 285 -330 -793 -436 108 212 268 402 Impairment and amortisation charges -52 -116 -996 -1,738 -474 -118 0 0 0 0 EBIT 1,318 257 -711 -2,068 -1,267 -554 108 212 268 402 Interest net -441 -484 -454 -191 -266 -105 -76 -92 -42 -29 Net financial items -441 -484 -817 -616 -958 -512 -23 -109 -10 3 Associated income 0 0 -134 -73 -215 -263 -217 18 112 127 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 877 -227 -1,662 -2,757 -2,440 -1,329 -132 121 370 533 Tax -133 -4 282 286 269 107 -69 -49 -111 -160 Net profit 744 -231 -1,380 -2,471 -2,171 -1,222 -201 72 259 373 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 944 1,131 2,473 -2,494 -1,474 -169 -323 75 259 373 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 -504 -7 -161 -110 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 -504 -7 -161 -110 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 1,858 1,378 1,379 792 47 188 367 475 490 615 Net financial items -441 -484 -817 -616 -958 -512 -23 -109 -10 3 Paid tax -133 -4 282 286 269 107 -69 -49 -111 -160 Non-cash items 96 2,296 -2,880 -985 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC -1,001 -2,635 1,336 -81 1,904 642 -272 -559 20 -93 Operating cash flow 379 551 -700 -604 -129 -673 314 64 388 365 CAPEX fixed assets -2,298 -1,978 -926 -1,636 -201 -97 -129 -83 -85 -94 Acquisitions and disposals 1,612 -160 5,425 1,420 2,923 814 377 -848 0 0 Free cash flow -307 -1,587 3,799 -820 2,593 44 562 -867 303 271 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 610 396 -1,424 -436 1,347 -1,536 184 -49 0 0 Other non cash items 533 -3,017 3,798 88 -1,466 1,645 1,213 -385 278 84 Decrease in net IB debt 836 -4,208 6,173 -1,168 2,474 153 1,959 -1,385 497 271 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 3,605 3,279 3,122 2,785 1,731 1,435 1,260 1,630 1,630 1,630 Tangible fixed assets 7,654 6,743 7,390 6,948 5,799 5,628 1,261 1,185 1,132 1,098 Fixed assets 14,034 11,411 11,945 10,732 7,897 7,163 5,078 5,522 5,582 5,675 Current assets 9,534 16,123 12,485 9,805 4,964 3,165 3,927 5,345 5,461 5,139 Total assets 23,568 27,534 24,430 20,537 12,861 10,328 9,005 10,867 11,043 10,813 Shareholders equity 7,267 6,873 9,378 7,386 5,580 5,277 4,317 4,404 4,663 5,036 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 3,621 3,888 4,720 1,583 1,494 2,133 588 1,905 1,905 918 Other long-term liabilities 2,044 1,339 1,241 900 840 690 897 848 848 848 Current liabilities 10,636 15,434 9,091 10,667 4,947 2,228 3,203 3,580 3,497 3,882 Total liabilities and equity 23,568 27,534 24,430 20,536 12,861 10,328 9,005 10,737 10,913 10,683 Net IB debt 5,787 9,995 3,822 4,990 2,516 2,363 404 1,789 1,291 1,020 Market cap. (m) 5,701 5,871 5,969 3,844 2,608 4,080 4,392 3,162 2,481 2,481 EV 9,836 15,158 8,395 7,339 6,818 6,725 1,399 1,572 963 564 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 EPS 3.5 4.2 9.1 -9.2 -5.4 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 1.0 1.4 EPS Core 2.9 -0.4 -0.7 -2.7 -5.6 -3.7 -0.7 0.3 1.0 1.4 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 16% 8% 15% -31% -50% -41% -8% 29% 5% 11% Net profit grow th -17% -131% -496% -79% 12% 44% 84% 136% 261% 44% Margins Gross margin 11% 7% 6% 5% 3% 7% 9% 9% 9% 10% EBITDA margin 11% 7% 6% 5% 1% 4% 9% 9% 9% 10% EBIT margin 8% 1% -3% -14% -17% -13% 3% 4% 5% 7% Pretax margin 5% -1% -7% -18% -30% -24% 2% 2% 5% 7% Net debt / equity 80% 145% 41% 68% 45% 45% 9% 41% 28% 20% EBITDA / net interest 4.2x 2.8x 3.0x 4.1x 0.2x 1.8x 4.8x 5.2x 11.5x 21.1x FCF yield nm nm 65% -25% 59% 1% 16% -35% 12% 11% Share price 21.0 21.6 21.9 14.1 9.6 15.0 16.1 11.6 9.1 9.1

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 83

Aker ASA

NAV estimate (Current prices, Q3’19 balance sheet) Shares Price Mcap Net Asset Value outstanding NOK NOKm # shares stake total /share

Value Industrial holdings: 54,139 728

Value financial Investments: 7,934 104

LTV 20% NAV - ABGSC calculation 49,908 672 Share price 549 P/NAV - as per ABGSCe valuation 82%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Infront

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 84

Aker BP

Aker BP Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 55 157 466 1,197 1,364 2,563 3,750 3,404 4,937 5,729 COGS -51 -66 -99 -193 -249 -551 -706 -781 -832 -921 EBITDA -264 -182 210 928 968 1,786 2,748 2,304 3,730 4,511 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -19 -78 -160 -481 -509 -727 -752 -747 -857 -997 EBITA -282 -260 50 447 459 1,060 1,996 1,557 2,873 3,514 Impairment and amortisation charges -358 -111 -347 -430 -71 -52 -20 -147 0 0 EBIT -640 -371 -297 17 387 1,007 1,975 1,410 2,873 3,514 Interest net -1 -44 -77 -106 -76 -96 -154 -100 -202 -238 Net financial items 0 -53 -77 -129 -97 -196 -171 -224 -202 -238 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit -640 -424 -374 -113 290 811 1,805 1,186 2,671 3,276 Tax 499 333 96 -199 -255 -536 -1,328 -1,009 -1,941 -2,395 Net profit -141 -91 -278 -312 35 275 476 178 730 882 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders -141 -91 -278 -312 35 275 476 178 730 882 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA -264 -182 210 928 968 1,786 2,748 2,304 3,730 4,511 Net financial items 0 -53 -77 -129 -97 -196 -171 -224 -202 -238 Paid tax 0 0 -30 -321 129 324 907 -628 -940 -1,767 Non-cash items 1,075 1,122 537 209 -27 236 323 370 375 298 Change in WC 168 953 474 -481 -267 -918 1,768 -227 563 265 Operating cash flow 819 915 510 688 888 2,158 3,800 1,965 2,963 2,803 CAPEX fixed assets -555 -412 -627 -1,108 -1,249 -1,175 -1,684 -2,101 -2,218 -1,859 Acquisitions and disposals -41 -55 54 -126 424 -1,884 -463 -0 0 0 Free cash flow 223 447 -63 -545 63 -901 1,652 -136 745 944 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 -63 -250 -450 -750 -850 -950 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 489 0 -11 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 1,021 -1,463 500 6 2,219 911 -639 82 0 0 Other non cash items -2,213 1,545 -1,884 2 -2,113 -981 619 -318 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt -969 529 -1,448 -538 107 -731 1,183 -1,133 -105 -6 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 388 54 1,187 768 1,847 1,860 1,860 1,713 1,713 1,713 Tangible fixed assets 1,993 443 2,549 2,979 4,442 5,582 5,746 6,758 7,618 8,056 Fixed assets 5,674 1,120 4,848 4,701 8,077 9,486 10,088 11,325 12,311 12,876 Current assets 2,917 637 537 487 1,178 2,532 689 612 840 1,984 Total assets 8,590 1,757 5,385 5,189 9,255 12,019 10,777 11,937 13,151 14,860 Shareholders equity 3,738 531 652 339 2,449 2,989 2,990 2,404 2,284 2,216 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 1,889 752 2,290 2,622 2,541 1,893 2,018 3,011 3,344 4,494 Other long-term liabilities 1,034 158 1,789 1,833 3,381 4,249 4,382 4,938 5,377 5,739 Current liabilities 1,703 316 653 395 885 2,888 1,387 1,584 2,146 2,411 Total liabilities and equity 8,364 1,757 5,384 5,189 9,255 12,019 10,777 11,937 13,151 14,860 Net IB debt 1,076 547 1,994 2,532 2,425 3,156 1,973 3,106 3,211 3,217 Market cap. (m) 1,709 1,843 1,479 1,228 3,851 6,431 11,623 10,819 11,987 11,987 EV 2,559 1,874 2,873 3,785 8,429 11,570 10,914 15,062 15,162 15,168 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 128 141 166 203 338 343 360 360 360 360 EPS -1.1 -0.6 -1.7 -1.5 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 2.0 2.5 EPS Core 1.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.9 2.0 2.5 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.7 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th -8% 184% 196% 157% 14% 88% 46% -9% 45% 16% Net profit grow th -81% 35% -204% -12% 111% 686% 73% -63% 311% 21% Margins Gross margin 8% 58% 79% 84% 82% 79% 81% 77% 83% 84% EBITDA margin -476% -116% 45% 78% 71% 70% 73% 68% 76% 79% EBIT margin -1156% -236% -64% 1% 28% 39% 53% 41% 58% 61% Pretax margin -1155% -270% -80% -9% 21% 32% 48% 35% 54% 57% Net debt / equity 29% 103% 306% 747% 99% 106% 66% 129% 141% 145% EBITDA / net interest -512.7x -4.2x 2.7x 8.8x 12.7x 18.6x 17.8x 23.1x 18.5x 19.0x FCF yield nm nm -7% -43% 1% -11% 18% -1% 6% 8% Share price 13.4 13.1 8.9 6.1 11.4 18.7 32.3 30.1 33.3 33.3 haaka h

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 85

Aker Solutions

Aker Solutions Financial Statments (NOKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 28,373 29,125 32,969 31,896 25,558 22,461 25,233 28,280 25,333 27,286 COGS -26,125 -27,046 -30,294 -30,055 -23,629 -20,942 -23,422 -25,980 -23,424 -24,952 EBITDA 2,248 2,079 2,675 1,841 1,929 1,518 1,809 2,299 1,909 2,334 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -357 -499 -596 -760 -778 -791 -738 -1,219 -1,191 -1,187 EBITA 1,891 1,580 2,079 1,081 1,151 727 1,071 1,081 718 1,147 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 -70 -123 -464 -157 -21 -223 0 0 EBIT 1,891 1,580 2,009 958 687 570 1,050 858 718 1,147 Interest net -156 -183 -242 -301 -373 -225 -229 -434 -385 -378 Net financial items -167 -183 -242 -301 -434 -185 -246 -436 -385 -378 Associated income 0 0 0 26 19 11 -12 15 0 0 Other EO items -11 180 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 1,713 1,577 1,817 683 272 396 792 437 333 769 Tax -479 -397 -517 -302 -121 -160 -238 -145 -107 -246 Net profit 1,234 1,180 1,300 381 151 236 554 291 227 523 Minority interest -10 -7 -20 8 -96 -19 -43 -36 -20 -20 Net profit to shareholders 1,224 1,173 1,280 389 55 217 511 255 207 503 Total extraordinary items before tax -11 180 9 -509 -192 -133 -2 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax -11 180 9 -284 -107 -79 -1 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 2,248 2,079 2,675 1,841 1,929 1,518 1,809 2,299 1,909 2,334 Net financial items -167 -183 -242 -301 -434 -185 -246 -436 -385 -378 Paid tax -102 -192 -517 -302 -121 -160 -238 -145 -107 -246 Non-cash items -478 -546 1,451 -268 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC -87 1,501 -722 964 -602 -374 -34 -1,662 101 -65 Operating cash flow 1,414 2,659 2,645 1,934 312 587 920 357 1,518 1,645 CAPEX fixed assets -915 -996 -816 -1,290 -626 -361 -506 -690 -760 -546 Acquisitions and disposals -412 -1,114 -214 -9 -201 53 208 -55 0 0 Free cash flow 87 549 1,615 635 -515 279 622 -387 758 1,099 Dividend paid 0 0 0 -394 0 0 0 0 0 -103 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 29 -10 2,544 387 -1,840 -443 -748 632 0 0 Other non cash items -2,604 934 -5,725 149 1,069 265 699 -4,964 500 500 Decrease in net IB debt -2,488 1,473 -1,566 777 -1,286 101 573 -5,178 758 996 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 3,833 5,080 5,763 6,207 5,631 6,447 6,349 5,669 5,669 5,669 Tangible fixed assets 2,365 3,072 3,604 3,962 3,884 2,667 3,044 3,161 3,230 3,089 Fixed assets 6,559 8,613 9,773 10,537 10,271 9,960 9,556 10,582 10,651 10,510 Current assets 13,679 17,161 18,094 17,192 11,226 9,776 11,409 12,829 11,982 13,197 Total assets 20,238 25,774 27,867 27,729 21,497 19,736 20,965 23,412 22,633 23,707 Shareholders equity 4,424 6,313 5,677 6,396 6,277 6,981 7,519 7,413 7,620 8,019 Minority 154 156 216 234 138 67 89 115 135 155 Long-term debt 3,063 3,533 3,154 3,137 1,844 2,576 1,788 2,720 2,720 2,720 Other long-term liabilities 1,628 1,802 1,391 882 941 877 847 904 904 904 Current liabilities 10,969 13,970 17,429 17,081 12,297 9,237 10,721 11,067 10,062 10,716 Total liabilities and equity 20,238 25,774 27,867 27,730 21,497 19,738 20,964 22,220 21,441 22,515 Net IB debt 722 -836 779 76 1,348 994 996 6,001 5,243 4,248 Market cap. (m) nm nm 12,428 10,478 9,038 11,753 13,802 9,068 6,863 6,863 EV nm nm 12,064 8,282 12,511 13,400 11,018 11,844 11,086 10,090 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 EPS 4.5 4.3 4.7 1.4 0.2 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.8 1.8 EPS Core 4.5 3.7 4.9 2.9 2.3 1.7 2.0 1.8 0.8 1.8 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 28% 3% 13% -3% -20% -12% 12% 12% -10% 8% Net profit grow th 140% -4% 10% -71% -60% 56% 135% -47% -22% 131% Margins Gross margin 8% 7% 8% 6% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% EBITDA margin 8% 7% 8% 6% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% EBIT margin 7% 5% 6% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% Pretax margin 6% 5% 6% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 3% Net debt / equity 16% -13% 13% 1% 21% 14% 13% 80% 68% 52% EBITDA / net interest 14.4x 11.4x 11.1x 6.1x 5.2x 6.7x 7.9x 5.3x 5.0x 6.2x FCF yield nm nm 14% 8% -5% 2% 6% -6% 11% 16% Share price nm nm 45.7 38.5 33.2 43.2 50.7 33.3 25.2 25.2

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 86

Archer Limited

Archer Limited Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 2,191 2,076 2,254 1,549 884 847 889 914 945 1,041 COGS -1,989 -1,926 -2,020 -1,461 -835 -792 -817 -824 -841 -926 EBITDA 201 149 234 88 49 55 72 90 104 116 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -279 -174 -146 -183 -73 -63 -56 -50 -48 -46 EBITA -77 -25 88 -95 -24 -7 16 41 56 70 Impairment and amortisation charges -265 -424 -60 4 -18 -3 -1 0 0 0 EBIT -342 -448 27 -91 -41 -11 15 41 56 70 Interest net -60 -52 -44 -48 -61 -43 -38 -40 -39 -37 Net financial items -43 -76 -102 -108 -52 79 -44 -59 -39 -37 Associated income 0 0 0 0 -69 -15 -39 -40 -6 -3 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit -384 -524 -75 -198 -162 54 -68 -58 12 30 Tax -10 2 -18 -4 -1 10 15 1 -2 -6 Net profit -395 -522 -92 -202 -163 64 -53 -58 9 24 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders -395 -522 -92 -202 -163 64 -53 -58 9 24 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 201 149 234 88 49 55 72 90 104 116 Net financial items -43 -76 -102 -108 -52 79 -44 -59 -39 -37 Paid tax -10 2 -18 -4 -1 10 15 1 -2 -6 Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC 16 11 -9 101 40 7 5 -5 4 -5 Operating cash flow 164 87 105 78 36 151 48 27 68 67 CAPEX fixed assets -267 -118 -256 -89 -7 -13 -26 -36 -27 -30 Acquisitions and disposals 24 263 9 0 -35 -8 19 0 0 0 Free cash flow -79 233 -142 -11 -5 130 41 -9 40 37 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 250 0 0 0 102 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities -1 -12 49 -76 -18 -16 -6 -1 0 0 Other non cash items -34 -20 75 30 9 -23 -15 8 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt -114 450 -18 -57 -14 194 20 -3 40 37 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 706 294 208 174 173 182 173 165 165 165 Tangible fixed assets 1,059 800 870 555 476 432 393 373 352 337 Fixed assets 1,945 1,202 1,171 905 773 741 667 606 580 561 Current assets 639 594 633 363 287 302 244 252 262 319 Total assets 2,584 1,796 1,804 1,267 1,060 1,043 911 859 841 880 Shareholders equity 927 635 546 197 30 200 147 91 100 124 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 890 614 697 708 692 655 601 64 25 25 Other long-term liabilities 83 71 119 43 26 10 4 3 3 3 Current liabilities 685 476 441 319 313 178 158 701 714 728 Total liabilities and equity 2,584 1,795 1,804 1,267 1,060 1,043 911 859 841 880 Net IB debt 1,149 699 717 774 788 595 575 577 537 500 Market cap. (m) 6,849 5,030 7,411 153 38 206 158 74 55 55 EV 4,166 5,434 3,874 667 767 674 581 613 579 544 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 367 553 579 58 58 146 147 147 147 147 EPS -1.1 -0.9 -0.2 -3.5 -2.8 0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.2 EPS Core -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -3.6 -2.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.2 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 18% -5% 9% -31% -43% -4% 5% 3% 3% 10% Net profit grow th -491% -32% 82% -119% 19% 139% -184% -8% 116% 162% Margins Gross margin 9% 7% 10% 6% 6% 7% 8% 10% 11% 11% EBITDA margin 9% 7% 10% 6% 6% 7% 8% 10% 11% 11% EBIT margin -16% -22% 1% -6% -5% -1% 2% 4% 6% 7% Pretax margin -18% -25% -3% -13% -11% 8% -3% -2% 2% 3% Net debt / equity 124% 110% 131% 392% 2663% 297% 390% 636% 537% 403% EBITDA / net interest 3.4x 2.9x 5.3x 1.8x 0.8x 1.3x 1.9x 2.3x 2.7x 3.1x FCF yield nm nm -4% -27% -6% 73% 56% -17% 74% 68% Share price 18.7 8.7 12.8 2.6 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 87

Awilco Drilling

Aw ilco Drilling PLC Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 152 237 276 247 95 132 57 39 31 62 COGS -78 -77 -79 -67 -46 -37 -36 -34 -39 -42 EBITDA 74 159 197 180 49 95 20 4 -8 20 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -17 -18 -18 -18 -16 -16 -38 -11 -12 -12 EBITA 56 142 179 162 34 79 -18 -7 -20 9 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 -30 0 -45 0 0 0 0 EBIT 56 142 179 132 34 34 -18 -7 -20 9 Interest net -13 -9 -12 -8 -7 -6 -3 1 -3 -34 Net financial items -14 -9 -12 -9 -10 -5 -3 0 -3 -34 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 42 132 168 124 24 29 -21 -7 -23 -26 Tax -4 -10 -30 -24 -3 -8 -2 0 5 5 Net profit 38 122 137 99 21 21 -23 -6 -18 -21 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 38 122 137 99 21 21 -23 -6 -18 -21 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 74 159 197 180 49 95 20 4 -8 20 Net financial items -14 -9 -12 -9 -10 -5 -3 0 -3 -34 Paid tax -4 -10 -30 -24 -3 -8 -2 0 5 5 Non-cash items 0 -2 -0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC -19 20 7 19 -58 23 4 -0 -1 -3 Operating cash flow 37 158 162 176 -16 84 28 5 -7 -12 CAPEX fixed assets -5 -13 -24 -31 -20 -1 -46 -49 -47 -412 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow 32 145 138 144 -36 83 -18 -44 -54 -424 Dividend paid 0 -93 -137 -75 -20 -24 -16 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 69 20 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 1 -0 -1 8 -6 -1 0 0 0 0 Other non cash items -1 0 1 -8 6 1 0 0 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt 32 52 2 69 -55 59 35 -24 -54 -424 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 250 248 254 235 239 181 187 225 260 660 Fixed assets 250 248 254 235 239 181 187 225 260 660 Current assets 66 140 204 219 144 148 81 56 52 82 Total assets 316 388 458 454 384 329 268 280 312 742 Shareholders equity 177 208 208 233 246 224 261 275 257 237 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 98 87 110 100 90 80 0 0 50 500 Other long-term liabilities 1 1 0 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 Current liabilities 40 93 140 114 47 25 7 5 5 6 Total liabilities and equity 316 388 458 454 384 329 268 280 312 742 Net IB debt 98 46 44 -25 30 -29 -64 -40 14 438 Market cap. (m) 261 515 587 197 108 120 238 148 89 89 EV 469 683 360 80 172 89 93 47 104 528 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 30 30 30 30 30 30 49 53 55 55 EPS 1.3 4.1 4.6 3.3 0.7 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 EPS Core 1.3 4.1 4.6 4.3 0.7 2.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 Dividend per share 0.0 4.2 4.5 1.8 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 99% 55% 17% -11% -61% 38% -57% -31% -19% 99% Net profit grow th 1366% 218% 12% -28% -79% 1% -209% 73% -193% -12% Margins Gross margin 49% 67% 71% 73% 52% 72% 36% 11% -26% 33% EBITDA margin 49% 67% 71% 73% 52% 72% 36% 11% -26% 33% EBIT margin 37% 60% 65% 54% 36% 26% -32% -18% -63% 14% Pretax margin 28% 56% 61% 50% 26% 22% -37% -17% -73% -41% Net debt / equity 55% 22% 21% -11% 12% -13% -24% -14% 6% 185% EBITDA / net interest 5.5x 17.0x 16.7x 21.9x 7.0x 15.5x 7.4x -5.5x -2.6x 0.6x FCF yield nm nm 44% 137% -25% 70% -12% -51% -61% -475% Share price 8.7 17.2 19.6 6.6 3.6 4.0 4.9 2.8 1.6 1.6

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 88

Borr Drilling

Borr Drilling Limited Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 0 0 0 0 0 0 184 346 544 695 COGS 0 0 0 0 0 -57 -250 -342 -440 -497 EBITDA 0 0 0 0 0 -57 -66 4 104 198 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 -22 -80 -100 -117 -138 EBITA 0 0 0 0 0 -79 -145 -96 -12 60 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 0 0 -27 -24 -32 0 0 EBIT 0 0 0 0 0 -106 -170 -128 -12 60 Interest net 0 0 0 0 0 2 -13 -64 -88 -97 Net financial items 0 0 0 0 0 17 -57 -134 -88 -97 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 0 0 0 0 0 -89 -227 -262 -100 -36 Tax 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -3 -8 -4 -4 Net profit 0 0 0 0 0 -89 -229 -269 -104 -40 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 0 0 0 0 0 -89 -229 -269 -104 -40 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 0 0 0 0 0 -57 -66 4 104 198 Net financial items 0 0 0 0 0 17 -57 -134 -88 -97 Paid tax 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -3 -8 -4 -4 Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC 0 0 0 0 0 -13 -91 -79 -20 -9 Operating cash flow 0 0 0 0 0 -53 -217 -216 -8 88 CAPEX fixed assets 0 0 0 0 -14 -1,058 -388 -337 -700 -15 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 -0 -357 -158 8 3 0 Free cash flow 0 0 0 0 -14 -1,467 -762 -546 -705 73 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 152 1,428 199 49 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 83 113 62 0 0 Other non cash items 0 0 0 0 -0 -104 -774 -38 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt 0 0 0 0 138 -61 -1,224 -472 -705 73 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 1,426 2,648 2,882 3,463 3,340 Fixed assets 0 0 0 0 20 1,447 2,708 2,935 3,515 3,392 Current assets 0 0 0 0 138 226 205 319 307 335 Total assets 0 0 0 0 158 1,672 2,914 3,254 3,823 3,727 Shareholders equity 0 0 0 0 158 1,493 1,532 1,318 1,214 1,173 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 87 1,175 1,672 2,343 2,287 Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 71 90 95 95 95 Current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 21 116 168 171 172 Total liabilities and equity 0 0 0 0 158 1,672 2,914 3,254 3,823 3,727 Net IB debt 0 0 0 0 -138 -77 1,147 1,619 2,324 2,251 Market cap. (m) nm nm nm nm 1,319 9,936 11,259 2,089 933 933 EV nm nm nm nm 1,336 10,901 7,505 3,412 3,257 3,184 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 0 0 0 0 88 271 519 213 111 111 EPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -1.3 -0.9 -0.4 EPS Core 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.4 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 88% 57% 28% Net profit grow th nm nm nm nm nm nm nm -18% 61% 61% Margins Gross margin nm nm nm nm nm nm -36% 1% 19% 28% EBITDA margin nm nm nm nm nm nm -36% 1% 19% 28% EBIT margin nm nm nm nm nm nm -92% -37% -2% 9% Pretax margin nm nm nm nm nm nm -123% -76% -18% -5% Net debt / equity nm nm nm nm -88% -5% 75% 123% 191% 192% EBITDA / net interest nm nm nm nm nm -23.6x -5.3x 0.1x 1.2x 2.1x FCF yield nm nm nm nm -1% -26% -12% -30% -76% 8% Share price nm nm nm nm 17.0 19.1 21.7 9.8 8.4 8.4

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 89

BW Offshore

BW Offshore Limited Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 909 982 1,070 1,108 845 626 870 1,128 1,090 1,113 COGS -662 -536 -572 -571 -421 -291 -383 -426 -433 -424 EBITDA 248 447 520 538 424 336 489 703 657 689 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -224 -264 -221 -260 -225 -226 -337 -395 -403 -338 EBITA 24 183 300 278 198 110 153 308 254 351 Impairment and amortisation charges 72 -2 -2 -397 -233 -29 5 -2 0 0 EBIT 95 181 298 -119 -35 81 158 307 254 351 Interest net -53 -62 -66 -47 -45 -38 -77 -84 -68 -65 Net financial items -66 -62 -72 -56 -65 -37 -81 -124 -68 -65 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 29 119 225 -175 -100 44 77 183 186 286 Tax -29 -37 -38 -41 -33 -3 -40 -74 -49 -48 Net profit 1 83 187 -216 -133 41 37 109 137 238 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -8 -30 -23 -58 Net profit to shareholders 1 83 187 -216 -133 40 29 78 114 180 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 248 447 520 538 424 336 489 703 657 689 Net financial items -66 -62 -72 -56 -65 -37 -81 -124 -68 -65 Paid tax -29 -37 -38 -41 -33 -3 -40 -74 -49 -48 Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 -71 -110 -110 Change in WC 140 -122 76 -145 -75 246 -7 85 4 -4 Operating cash flow 293 227 486 296 250 543 432 520 434 462 CAPEX fixed assets -228 -111 -365 -482 -401 -443 -357 -285 -369 -281 Acquisitions and disposals 191 0 -57 85 2 -34 21 29 0 0 Free cash flow 255 116 64 -101 -150 66 96 263 66 180 Dividend paid -41 -69 -82 -34 0 0 0 0 -39 -46 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 28 14 80 92 16 2 -58 -66 -58 -58 Other non cash items -194 2 -38 13 18 292 5 47 58 58 Decrease in net IB debt 48 63 24 -30 -15 360 44 244 27 134 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 190 190 191 4 4 7 38 93 93 93 Tangible fixed assets 2,717 2,558 2,780 2,714 2,664 2,907 2,848 2,663 2,628 2,572 Fixed assets 3,085 2,911 3,116 2,840 2,771 2,999 2,952 2,807 2,772 2,715 Current assets 339 444 553 600 597 424 465 941 460 455 Total assets 3,424 3,355 3,669 3,440 3,368 3,423 3,417 3,747 3,232 3,171 Shareholders equity 1,127 1,124 1,198 944 920 972 996 1,065 1,089 1,171 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 288 325 335 358 416 Long-term debt 1,548 1,459 1,434 1,461 1,567 1,198 1,113 1,396 877 751 Other long-term liabilities 240 254 334 426 442 444 386 320 262 204 Current liabilities 509 517 703 608 438 521 597 630 647 629 Total liabilities and equity 3,424 3,355 3,669 3,440 3,368 3,423 3,417 3,747 3,232 3,170 Net IB debt 1,677 1,614 1,590 1,620 1,635 1,275 1,232 988 961 827 Market cap. (m) 8,516 9,641 10,011 5,021 371 556 1,038 1,112 1,358 1,358 EV 9,087 11,202 9,735 3,954 2,222 2,077 1,893 2,336 2,309 2,175 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 688 688 688 688 1,632 185 185 185 185 185 EPS 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 EPS Core -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 Dividend per share 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 7% 8% 9% 4% -24% -26% 39% 30% -3% 2% Net profit grow th 100% 16400% 127% -215% 38% 131% -12% 198% 26% 74% Margins Gross margin 27% 45% 47% 49% 50% 54% 56% 62% 60% 62% EBITDA margin 27% 46% 49% 49% 50% 54% 56% 62% 60% 62% EBIT margin 10% 18% 28% -11% -4% 13% 18% 27% 23% 32% Pretax margin 3% 12% 21% -16% -12% 7% 9% 16% 17% 26% Net debt / equity 149% 144% 133% 172% 178% 101% 93% 71% 66% 52% EBITDA / net interest 4.7x 7.3x 7.9x 11.5x 9.5x 8.9x 6.3x 8.3x 9.7x 10.6x FCF yield nm nm 1% -4% -3% 8% 14% 19% 5% 13% Share price 12.4 14.0 14.6 7.3 2.0 3.0 5.6 6.0 7.3 7.3

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 90

DNO

DNO Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 472 499 455 189 201 347 829 974 982 883 COGS -146 -143 -152 -137 -86 421 -129 -276 -270 -257 EBITDA 313 346 252 29 95 736 639 567 625 540 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -103 -96 -199 -111 -60 -106 -260 -303 -260 -225 EBITA 210 250 53 -81 35 630 379 264 365 315 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 -150 -297 -93 -29 -108 -2 -138 0 0 EBIT 210 100 -243 -174 6 521 377 126 365 315 Interest net -16 -9 -9 -63 -39 -46 -54 -118 -79 -73 Net financial items -16 -9 -9 -63 -39 -46 -54 -118 -79 -73 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 194 91 -252 -237 -34 475 323 8 285 241 Tax -47 -50 26 24 -2 20 32 78 -100 -88 Net profit 147 41 -226 -213 -35 495 354 86 186 154 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 147 41 -226 -213 -35 495 354 86 186 154 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 313 346 252 29 95 736 639 567 625 540 Net financial items -16 -9 -9 -63 -39 -46 -54 -118 -79 -73 Paid tax -71 -55 -51 -4 -4 32 33 -1 -1 5 Non-cash items 138 -12 18 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC -80 15 -29 -52 35 173 -161 -127 113 0 Operating cash flow 284 284 181 -75 61 338 472 386 744 559 CAPEX fixed assets -120 -237 -294 -43 -36 -130 -135 -398 -182 -141 Acquisitions and disposals -7 -11 -33 0 -0 1 -205 -394 0 0 Free cash flow 124 -2 -152 -125 25 209 131 -446 458 313 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 -26 -49 -47 -47 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 118 -2 -24 0 -70 -4 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities -14 15 3 -81 70 -119 27 444 0 0 Other non cash items -98 -8 13 5 -16 79 -37 -543 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt 12 5 -137 -82 77 146 95 -664 407 267 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 648 785 564 407 456 864 758 1,386 1,325 1,258 Fixed assets 820 953 723 541 534 916 1,029 2,168 2,108 2,041 Current assets 404 437 379 468 436 499 976 1,003 1,297 1,564 Total assets 1,224 1,390 1,101 1,008 970 1,415 2,004 3,171 3,405 3,605 Shareholders equity 669 785 533 436 402 876 1,218 1,188 1,323 1,429 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 221 234 215 351 362 373 576 983 983 983 Other long-term liabilities 161 217 135 97 167 46 68 606 705 798 Current liabilities 173 154 219 124 39 121 143 395 395 395 Total liabilities and equity 1,224 1,390 1,101 1,008 970 1,415 2,004 3,171 3,405 3,605 Net IB debt -31 -36 101 183 106 -40 -135 529 122 -144 Market cap. (m) 1,598 2,271 3,328 1,480 1,004 1,146 1,824 1,752 1,117 1,117 EV 1,676 4,038 2,307 923 1,172 1,169 1,141 1,676 1,214 947 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 974 1,023 1,023 1,054 1,083 1,069 1,052 1,041 1,009 985 EPS 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 EPS Core 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 37% 6% -9% -58% 6% 73% 139% 17% 1% -10% Net profit grow th 35% -72% -648% 6% 83% 1499% -28% -76% 117% -17% Margins Gross margin 69% 71% 67% 28% 57% 221% 84% 72% 72% 71% EBITDA margin 66% 69% 55% 15% 47% 212% 77% 58% 64% 61% EBIT margin 44% 20% -54% -92% 3% 150% 45% 13% 37% 36% Pretax margin 41% 18% -55% -125% -17% 137% 39% 1% 29% 27% Net debt / equity -5% -5% 19% 42% 26% -5% -11% 45% 9% -10% EBITDA / net interest 19.9x 36.7x 29.6x 0.5x 2.4x 16.0x 11.8x 4.8x 7.9x 7.4x FCF yield nm nm -7% -17% 2% 17% 9% -38% 40% 28% Share price 1.6 2.2 3.3 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.1

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 91

EMGS

EMGS Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 201 145 198 81 45 36 32 85 61 57 COGS -69 -51 -61 -32 -18 -10 -19 -19 -20 -18 EBITDA 56 18 61 -31 -9 -1 -13 43 21 16 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -27 -30 -31 -38 -36 -15 -19 -27 -16 -17 EBITA 29 -12 30 -69 -45 -17 -32 16 5 -1 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 29 -12 30 -69 -45 -17 -32 16 5 -1 Interest net -5 -7 -6 -4 -3 -4 -5 -6 -2 -2 Net financial items -11 -1 -1 -4 -8 -5 -5 -6 -2 -2 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 18 -13 30 -73 -53 -22 -37 10 3 -3 Tax -6 -2 -5 -4 0 0 0 -4 -1 1 Net profit 12 -15 24 -76 -53 -21 -37 7 3 -2 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 12 -15 24 -76 -53 -21 -37 7 3 -2 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 -14 0 -4 -3 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 -14 0 -4 -3 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 56 18 61 -31 -9 -1 -13 43 21 16 Net financial items -11 -1 -1 -4 -8 -5 -5 -6 -2 -2 Paid tax -6 -2 -5 -4 0 0 0 -4 -1 1 Non-cash items 22 24 25 3 7 6 1 6 0 0 Change in WC -32 5 -38 61 9 -1 7 -23 -1 3 Operating cash flow 29 44 41 26 -0 -1 -10 17 17 18 CAPEX fixed assets -43 -51 -59 -42 -14 -12 -8 -4 -12 -15 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow -14 -7 -18 -16 -14 -13 -18 13 5 3 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 32 0 17 12 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 7 6 11 -7 1 -1 -5 1 0 0 Other non cash items -23 3 -11 8 1 0 0 -9 1 -1 Decrease in net IB debt -31 1 -18 16 -12 4 -11 5 6 3 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 20 18 14 0 2 2 1 2 2 2 Tangible fixed assets 43 28 19 17 14 36 30 26 21 17 Fixed assets 77 93 110 91 69 57 48 32 27 25 Current assets 123 117 126 74 42 47 27 61 57 56 Total assets 199 210 235 165 111 105 75 93 84 81 Shareholders equity 110 102 128 78 33 29 3 7 10 8 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 46 57 47 31 32 30 31 31 31 31 Other long-term liabilities 10 11 13 17 24 24 19 18 18 18 Current liabilities 33 41 47 39 23 22 21 33 22 21 Total liabilities and equity 199 210 235 165 111 105 75 90 81 78 Net IB debt 5 4 22 6 18 14 25 20 14 11 Market cap. (m) 10,517 6,226 3,788 6,768 21 39 48 34 32 32 EV 9,515 5,295 2,239 1,525 42 64 44 52 46 43 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 198 199 199 1,312 33 91 131 131 131 131 EPS 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -1.6 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.0 EPS Core 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.0 -1.6 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.0 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 16% -28% 37% -59% -45% -19% -12% 169% -28% -7% Net profit grow th 17% -227% 260% -416% 31% 59% -70% 118% -59% -176% Margins Gross margin 66% 65% 69% 60% 59% 71% 40% 78% 66% 69% EBITDA margin 28% 12% 31% -38% -20% -4% -42% 51% 34% 28% EBIT margin 15% -8% 15% -85% -101% -47% -100% 19% 8% -2% Pretax margin 9% -9% 15% -90% -119% -61% -116% 12% 5% -4% Net debt / equity 5% 4% 17% 8% 55% 49% 747% 270% 139% 142% EBITDA / net interest 10.8x 2.6x 10.6x -8.4x -2.9x -0.4x -2.7x 7.4x 11.9x 10.2x FCF yield nm nm -1% -1% -56% -26% -94% 42% 17% 10% Share price 53.0 31.2 19.0 5.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 92

Equinor

Equinor Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 124,311 108,829 99,264 59,642 45,872 61,186 79,657 66,867 68,015 71,055 COGS -76,431 -71,337 -69,729 -50,516 -30,251 -39,903 -52,449 -41,968 -40,857 -41,688 EBITDA 45,878 38,787 33,803 18,081 11,631 22,416 29,387 22,750 27,158 29,368 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -10,395 -12,350 -15,925 -16,715 -11,549 -8,643 -9,248 -11,185 -8,663 -8,870 EBITA 35,483 26,437 17,878 1,366 82 13,773 20,139 11,565 18,496 20,497 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 35,483 26,437 17,878 1,366 82 13,773 20,139 11,565 18,496 20,497 Interest net -402 -213 -564 -570 -607 -551 -692 -684 -747 -718 Net financial items -402 -213 -564 -570 -607 -551 -692 -684 -747 -718 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 431 -2,708 562 -732 349 64 -572 982 0 0 Pretax profit 35,512 23,515 17,876 64 -176 13,286 18,875 11,863 17,749 19,780 Tax -23,571 -16,881 -14,011 -5,225 -2,725 -8,822 -11,336 -8,459 -11,306 -12,663 Net profit 11,941 6,635 3,865 -5,161 -2,901 4,464 7,539 3,404 6,443 7,117 Minority interest -17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 11,924 6,635 3,865 -5,161 -2,901 4,464 7,539 3,404 6,443 7,117 Total extraordinary items before tax -1,571 -1,414 4,830 8,223 -3,641 1,197 1,607 -1,167 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 2,427 -1,277 -2,387 -7,589 -2,694 -66 844 -1,656 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 45,878 38,787 33,803 18,081 11,631 22,416 29,387 22,750 27,158 29,368 Net financial items -402 -213 -564 -570 -607 -551 -692 -684 -747 -718 Paid tax -3,547 -3,309 -2,483 -1,015 -4,386 -5,766 -7,804 -8,204 -9,506 -12,263 Non-cash items -24,726 -16,826 -10,922 -84 4,969 -1,281 -3,369 736 -1,872 -472 Change in WC 4,785 -1,183 371 -2,784 -2,606 -453 2,108 -418 1,649 301 Operating cash flow 21,988 17,256 20,205 13,628 9,000 14,365 19,630 14,180 16,683 16,216 CAPEX fixed assets -21,219 -19,712 -19,981 -14,700 -10,100 -9,400 -9,900 -10,110 -11,000 -11,000 Acquisitions and disposals 4,625 974 -893 424 -346 2,727 -4,402 -273 0 0 Free cash flow 5,394 -1,482 -669 -648 -1,446 7,692 5,328 3,797 5,683 5,216 Dividend paid -3,552 -3,658 -5,407 -2,828 -2,519 -1,491 -2,329 -3,263 -3,728 -3,995 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 565 -12,708 15,353 -4,556 -144 1,630 702 2,520 0 0 Other non cash items 4,829 919 -861 8,455 738 -5,419 689 -7,099 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt 7,235 -16,930 8,416 423 -3,371 2,412 4,390 -4,045 1,954 1,221 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 15,051 15,586 13,670 10,332 9,243 8,621 9,672 10,877 10,877 10,877 Tangible fixed assets 84,822 90,349 101,452 76,850 66,653 71,537 72,884 78,620 80,957 83,086 Fixed assets 103,281 110,176 117,385 89,141 79,133 83,911 86,452 92,109 94,518 96,719 Current assets 31,443 40,677 40,882 30,760 25,397 27,189 26,056 22,560 25,391 27,189 Total assets 134,723 150,854 158,267 119,901 104,530 111,100 112,508 114,668 119,908 123,908 Shareholders equity 54,824 60,641 61,099 44,006 35,072 39,861 42,970 41,423 44,137 47,259 Minority 116 0 64 37 27 24 19 16 16 16 Long-term debt 17,339 28,191 32,908 32,744 27,999 24,183 23,264 24,401 24,401 24,401 Other long-term liabilities 34,364 33,591 35,475 26,332 24,634 28,015 29,650 33,175 33,175 33,175 Current liabilities 28,080 28,430 28,720 16,781 16,798 19,017 16,605 15,653 18,179 19,058 Total liabilities and equity 134,723 150,854 158,267 119,901 104,530 111,100 112,508 114,668 119,908 123,908 Net IB debt 10,291 27,220 18,805 18,381 21,752 19,340 14,950 18,995 17,041 15,820 Market cap. (m) 80,391 74,088 84,579 54,398 51,649 61,129 83,262 67,089 68,959 68,959 EV 86,888 101,350 73,756 62,026 79,123 87,141 82,126 86,517 84,490 83,198 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 3,182 3,181 3,180 3,178 3,245 3,298 3,329 3,329 3,329 3,329 EPS 3.7 2.1 1.2 -1.6 -0.9 1.4 2.3 1.0 1.9 2.1 EPS Core 3.0 2.5 2.0 0.8 -0.1 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.9 2.1 Dividend per share 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 4% -12% -9% -40% -23% 33% 30% -16% 2% 4% Net profit grow th -15% -44% -42% -234% 44% 254% 69% -55% 89% 10% Margins Gross margin 39% 34% 30% 15% 34% 35% 34% 37% 40% 41% EBITDA margin 37% 36% 34% 30% 25% 37% 37% 34% 40% 41% EBIT margin 29% 24% 18% 2% 0% 23% 25% 17% 27% 29% Pretax margin 29% 22% 18% 0% 0% 22% 24% 18% 26% 28% Net debt / equity 19% 45% 31% 42% 62% 48% 35% 46% 39% 33% EBITDA / net interest 114.1x 181.9x 59.9x 31.7x 19.2x 40.7x 42.5x 33.3x 36.4x 40.9x FCF yield nm nm -1% -1% -2% 11% 8% 6% 8% 8% Share price 25.3 23.3 26.6 17.1 15.9 18.5 25.0 20.2 20.7 20.7

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 93

Kongsberg Gruppen

Kongsberg Gruppen Financial Statments (NOKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 15,652 16,323 16,614 17,032 15,845 14,490 14,381 22,885 27,676 30,190 COGS -6,417 -6,692 -6,812 -6,983 -6,496 -5,941 -5,896 -9,383 -11,347 -12,378 EBITDA 2,308 2,142 2,060 1,784 1,217 1,279 1,394 2,054 2,805 3,414 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -323 -345 -342 -362 -360 -353 -350 -830 -891 -875 EBITA 1,985 1,797 1,718 1,422 857 926 1,044 1,223 1,915 2,538 Impairment and amortisation charges -131 -138 -460 -472 -165 -154 -99 -296 -352 -332 EBIT 1,854 1,659 1,258 950 692 772 945 927 1,563 2,206 Interest net -23 -15 27 -14 37 -118 -74 -209 -84 -3 Net financial items -23 -15 27 -14 37 -118 -101 -209 -84 -3 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 1,831 1,644 1,285 936 729 654 844 718 1,479 2,203 Tax -511 -419 -405 -189 -78 -95 -140 -147 -252 -375 Net profit 1,320 1,225 880 747 651 559 704 572 1,227 1,827 Minority interest -5 -5 -7 -8 3 -5 -3 -8 -16 -16 Net profit to shareholders 1,315 1,220 873 739 654 554 701 564 1,211 1,811 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 -64 140 -135 -231 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 -64 140 -135 -231 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 2,308 2,142 2,060 1,784 1,217 1,279 1,394 2,054 2,805 3,414 Net financial items -23 -15 27 -14 37 -118 -101 -209 -84 -3 Paid tax -511 -419 -405 -189 -78 -95 -140 -147 -252 -375 Non-cash items -897 238 1,297 -1,789 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC -670 37 -583 -879 -389 1,024 1,102 -4,732 -1,476 -1,057 Operating cash flow 207 1,983 2,396 -1,087 809 2,899 2,189 106 2,235 2,867 CAPEX fixed assets -605 -429 -353 -349 -613 -328 -269 -645 -747 -815 Acquisitions and disposals -108 -666 -43 -106 -28 -189 -58 -30 0 0 Free cash flow -506 888 2,000 -1,542 168 2,382 1,862 -569 1,487 2,052 Dividend paid -450 -450 -630 -1,110 -555 -450 -450 -450 -261 -561 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities -553 752 3,677 -990 -1,740 -272 584 7,977 2,497 1,789 Other non cash items 516 -453 -3,431 1,032 -1,009 151 4,094 -14,053 -1,713 -1,005 Decrease in net IB debt -993 737 1,616 -2,610 -3,136 1,811 6,090 -7,446 1,618 1,883 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 -6 -6 -6 -6 Tangible fixed assets 2,602 2,655 2,477 2,542 2,723 2,658 2,531 3,743 3,599 3,539 Fixed assets 5,632 6,087 5,903 5,903 8,907 9,023 9,002 15,554 14,667 13,883 Current assets 10,642 11,348 14,370 13,218 12,289 11,798 18,650 21,960 24,526 26,082 Total assets 16,274 17,435 20,273 19,121 21,196 20,821 27,652 37,515 39,193 39,964 Shareholders equity 6,263 6,649 6,253 6,086 6,691 7,331 12,606 12,785 13,734 14,985 Minority 11 8 29 41 34 34 20 47 63 79 Long-term debt 1,311 811 873 866 3,820 3,340 4,020 5,068 3,284 1,598 Other long-term liabilities 1,575 1,938 2,022 1,659 1,830 2,080 1,970 2,255 2,255 2,255 Current liabilities 7,114 8,029 11,096 10,469 8,821 8,036 9,042 17,042 19,539 20,730 Total liabilities and equity 16,274 17,435 20,273 19,121 21,196 20,821 27,658 37,197 38,875 39,646 Net IB debt -1,198 -1,935 -3,551 -941 2,195 384 -5,706 1,740 121 -1,762 Market cap. (m) 11,738 12,262 14,217 14,501 13,317 14,127 25,542 22,302 26,650 26,650 EV 11,781 11,357 9,272 14,175 15,174 16,126 15,356 28,390 26,771 24,888 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 120 120 120 120 120 120 179 179 179 179 EPS 11.0 10.2 7.3 6.2 5.5 4.6 3.9 3.1 6.8 10.1 EPS Core 12.1 11.3 11.6 8.9 8.0 7.8 4.5 4.8 8.7 12.0 Dividend per share 3.8 5.3 9.3 4.3 3.8 3.8 2.5 1.5 3.1 4.7 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 3% 4% 2% 3% -7% -9% -1% 59% 21% 9% Net profit grow th -8% -7% -28% -15% -13% -14% 26% -19% 115% 49% Margins Gross margin 59% 59% 59% 59% 59% 59% 59% 59% 59% 59% EBITDA margin 15% 13% 12% 10% 8% 9% 10% 9% 10% 11% EBIT margin 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 5% 7% 4% 6% 7% Pretax margin 12% 10% 8% 5% 5% 5% 6% 3% 5% 7% Net debt / equity -19% -29% -57% -15% 33% 5% -45% 14% 1% -12% EBITDA / net interest 100.3x 142.8x -76.3x 127.4x -32.9x 10.8x 18.8x 9.8x 33.3x 1017.9x FCF yield nm nm 16% -10% 1% 15% 9% -2% 6% 8% Share price 97.8 102.2 118.5 120.8 111.0 117.7 142.6 124.5 148.8 148.8

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 94

Kvaerner

Kvaerner Financial Statments (NOKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 10,748 12,961 13,946 12,084 7,896 6,534 7,220 9,332 6,225 7,325 COGS -10,275 -12,325 -13,117 -11,510 -7,265 -5,738 -6,784 -8,815 -6,034 -7,002 EBITDA 473 636 829 574 631 796 436 517 191 323 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -66 -63 -70 -80 -100 -106 -110 -156 -162 -162 EBITA 407 573 759 494 531 690 326 361 28 161 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 -266 0 -198 0 0 -32 0 0 EBIT 407 573 493 494 333 690 326 329 28 161 Interest net -25 -56 -51 8 -3 -1 6 -3 -10 -6 Net financial items -31 -96 -104 87 -115 3 13 -4 -10 -6 Associated income -6 -77 -59 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 776 973 823 1,074 551 1,384 664 653 47 315 Tax -130 -161 -301 -241 -131 -185 -60 -69 -5 -39 Net profit 645 812 522 833 420 1,199 604 584 42 277 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 645 1,010 522 833 632 1,246 604 582 42 277 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 473 636 829 574 631 796 436 517 191 323 Net financial items -31 -96 -104 87 -115 3 13 -4 -10 -6 Paid tax -130 -161 -301 -241 -131 -185 -60 -69 -5 -39 Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC -696 751 -344 134 478 -885 300 -458 -121 88 Operating cash flow -385 1,130 80 554 863 -271 689 -15 56 365 CAPEX fixed assets -218 -163 -158 -55 -202 -90 -334 -400 -150 -100 Acquisitions and disposals 17 373 -98 3 1 -2 0 -9 0 0 Free cash flow -586 1,340 -176 502 662 -363 355 -424 -94 265 Dividend paid -412 -304 -335 -219 0 0 0 -268 0 0 Share issues and buybacks -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 17 215 -166 2 89 148 63 40 0 0 Other non cash items -370 -785 332 554 736 -20 -65 -130 49 49 Decrease in net IB debt -1,350 466 -345 839 1,487 -235 353 -830 -94 265 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 1,157 1,080 850 873 666 649 710 729 729 729 Tangible fixed assets 918 935 870 706 804 800 967 1,233 1,257 1,233 Fixed assets 2,231 2,150 2,010 1,715 1,505 1,473 1,753 2,043 2,067 2,043 Current assets 3,820 5,675 5,413 3,934 4,475 4,349 4,567 4,758 3,501 4,009 Total assets 6,051 7,825 7,423 5,649 5,980 5,822 6,320 6,801 5,568 6,052 Shareholders equity 2,202 2,511 2,337 2,550 2,656 3,176 3,440 3,425 3,439 3,555 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 469 479 487 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other long-term liabilities 206 226 358 253 313 429 494 546 546 546 Current liabilities 3,175 4,610 4,241 2,846 3,012 2,217 2,386 2,827 1,581 1,949 Total liabilities and equity 6,052 7,826 7,423 5,649 5,981 5,822 6,320 6,799 5,566 6,050 Net IB debt -600 -1,066 -721 -1,560 -3,047 -2,812 -3,165 -2,335 -2,241 -2,506 Market cap. (m) 3,898 3,030 2,974 1,672 2,210 3,255 4,052 3,354 3,032 3,032 EV 3,758 2,028 1,670 651 208 1,421 10 635 730 464 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 EPS 0.9 1.6 0.1 1.3 1.1 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.4 EPS Core 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.9 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.4 Dividend per share 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th -19% 21% 8% -13% -35% -17% 10% 29% -33% 18% Net profit grow th -60% 26% -36% 60% -50% 185% -50% -3% -93% 560% Margins Gross margin 4% 5% 6% 5% 8% 12% 6% 6% 3% 4% EBITDA margin 4% 5% 6% 5% 8% 12% 6% 6% 3% 4% EBIT margin 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 11% 5% 4% 0% 2% Pretax margin 7% 8% 6% 9% 7% 21% 9% 7% 1% 4% Net debt / equity -27% -42% -31% -61% -115% -89% -92% -68% -65% -70% EBITDA / net interest 18.6x 11.4x 16.3x -71.8x 210.3x 796.0x -72.7x 154.8x 19.5x 51.4x FCF yield nm nm -7% 23% 20% -9% 11% -14% -3% 9% Share price 14.5 11.3 11.1 6.2 8.2 12.1 15.1 12.5 11.3 11.3

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 95

Lundin Petroleum

Lundin Petroleum Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 1,345 1,196 785 569 1,160 1,997 2,408 2,867 3,688 3,765 COGS -373 -527 -505 -374 -381 -572 -757 -427 -426 -300 EBITDA 972 669 280 195 779 1,425 1,651 2,440 3,262 3,465 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -191 -174 -132 -284 -503 -567 -458 -427 -548 -522 EBITA 781 494 149 -89 276 857 1,193 2,013 2,714 2,943 Impairment and amortisation charges -237 -123 -401 -737 -632 -45 0 0 0 0 EBIT 543 371 -252 -826 -356 812 1,193 2,013 2,714 2,943 Interest net -21 -37 -73 -84 -218 -174 -143 -134 -85 -82 Net financial items -28 -70 -420 -611 -203 70 -153 -364 -85 -82 Associated income 0 -0 -13 0 0 43 -1 -1 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 515 301 -685 -1,437 -559 925 1,038 1,649 2,629 2,860 Tax -418 -215 254 570 59 -501 -1,026 -938 -1,982 -2,173 Net profit 96 86 -432 -867 -499 424 13 712 647 688 Minority interest 0 0 3 2 143 1 -0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 96 86 -429 -864 -357 425 13 712 647 688 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 972 669 280 195 779 1,425 1,651 2,440 3,262 3,465 Net financial items -28 -70 -420 -611 -203 70 -153 -364 -85 -82 Paid tax 0 -111 128 321 274 85 177 38 -1,466 -1,835 Non-cash items 169 288 386 184 116 73 263 -545 120 0 Change in WC -103 -44 179 -32 6 27 2 18 0 0 Operating cash flow 1,009 732 554 57 972 1,680 1,939 1,587 1,831 1,547 CAPEX fixed assets -920 -1,756 -2,003 -1,504 -1,034 -1,178 -1,013 -1,098 -933 -477 Acquisitions and disposals -41 -55 -76 -20 24 82 -43 863 -7 -2 Free cash flow 48 -1,080 -1,525 -1,467 -38 584 884 1,352 891 1,069 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 32 -153 -355 -555 -675 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 64 -28 -14 -1,517 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 197 80 -274 25 -4 -96 225 303 -105 -150 Other non cash items -399 140 372 253 -238 -328 -322 -307 105 150 Decrease in net IB debt -153 -860 -1,427 -1,189 -216 164 620 -525 337 394 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 2,914 3,937 4,383 4,220 4,543 4,950 5,355 5,567 5,838 5,795 Fixed assets 2,958 3,996 4,433 4,244 4,711 5,112 5,486 5,708 5,979 5,936 Current assets 336 378 659 542 492 417 357 498 334 488 Total assets 3,294 4,375 5,092 4,785 5,202 5,529 5,843 6,205 6,313 6,424 Shareholders equity 1,182 1,207 432 -498 -239 -351 -384 -1,676 -1,479 -1,316 Minority 68 60 34 24 -114 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 384 1,239 2,654 3,835 4,048 3,880 3,262 3,926 3,426 3,186 Other long-term liabilities 1,227 1,376 1,324 1,003 1,153 1,726 2,657 3,426 3,942 4,279 Current liabilities 432 493 648 422 353 274 308 530 425 275 Total liabilities and equity 3,294 4,375 5,092 4,785 5,202 5,529 5,843 6,205 6,313 6,424 Net IB debt 287 1,146 2,574 3,763 3,979 3,815 3,195 3,720 3,383 2,989 Market cap. (m) 6,421 6,422 5,262 4,284 5,431 7,169 9,884 9,717 9,701 9,701 EV 7,006 6,850 6,818 8,023 10,814 11,616 11,539 14,351 13,084 12,690 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 311 311 311 310 326 341 340 313 286 286 EPS 0.3 0.3 -1.4 -2.8 -1.1 1.2 0.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 EPS Core 1.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 0.8 1.4 0.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.1 2.5 3.1 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 6% -11% -34% -27% 104% 72% 21% 19% 29% 2% Net profit grow th -38% -11% -603% -101% 42% 185% -97% 5459% -9% 6% Margins Gross margin 72% 56% 36% 34% 67% 71% 69% 85% 88% 92% EBITDA margin 72% 56% 36% 34% 67% 71% 69% 85% 88% 92% EBIT margin 40% 31% -32% -145% -31% 41% 50% 70% 74% 78% Pretax margin 38% 25% -86% -252% -48% 44% 43% 58% 71% 76% Net debt / equity 23% 90% 553% -794% -1130% -1088% -832% -222% -229% -227% EBITDA / net interest 45.7x 18.3x 3.9x 2.3x 3.6x 8.2x 11.6x 18.2x 38.2x 42.0x FCF yield nm nm -36% -35% -1% 7% 11% 13% 9% 11% Share price 20.7 20.7 16.9 13.8 16.3 21.1 29.2 31.2 34.2 34.2

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 96

Maersk Drilling

Maersk Drilling Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 0 0 0 0 2,297 1,439 1,429 1,227 1,364 1,492 COGS 0 0 0 0 -900 -754 -834 -816 -878 -894 EBITDA 0 0 0 0 1,397 685 595 411 486 598 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles 0 0 0 0 -589 -468 -403 -386 -392 -392 EBITA 0 0 0 0 808 217 192 25 94 206 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 0 -1,510 -1,769 810 -27 0 0 EBIT 0 0 0 0 -702 -1,552 1,002 -2 94 206 Interest net 0 0 0 0 -89 -19 -12 -76 -67 -45 Net financial items 0 0 0 0 -89 -19 -12 -76 -67 -45 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 0 0 0 0 -791 -1,571 990 -78 26 161 Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 -48 -19 -13 -14 Net profit 0 0 0 0 -791 -1,571 942 -97 14 147 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 0 0 0 0 -791 -1,571 942 -97 14 147 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 0 0 0 0 1,397 685 595 411 486 598 Net financial items 0 0 0 0 -89 -19 -12 -76 -67 -45 Paid tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 -48 -19 -13 -14 Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC 0 0 0 0 -4,471 808 3,423 37 -23 -8 Operating cash flow 0 0 0 0 -3,163 1,474 3,958 354 383 531 CAPEX fixed assets 0 0 0 0 -307 -520 -182 -305 -280 -200 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 37 0 Free cash flow 0 0 0 0 -3,470 954 3,776 57 140 331 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1,326 0 0 -166 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 0 0 0 0 351 -103 -10 -10 0 0 Other non cash items 0 0 0 0 1,657 -970 -1,954 -62 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt 0 0 0 0 -1,462 -119 486 -15 140 165 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 109 85 56 43 43 43 Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 5,974 4,270 4,845 4,783 4,634 4,442 Fixed assets 0 0 0 0 6,130 4,377 4,906 4,832 4,683 4,491 Current assets 0 0 0 0 5,079 3,875 808 663 731 786 Total assets 0 0 0 0 11,209 8,252 5,714 5,495 5,414 5,277 Shareholders equity 0 0 0 0 8,757 6,209 3,810 3,696 3,710 3,691 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 1,939 0 1,375 1,274 1,144 1,014 Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0 0 109 70 62 74 74 74 Current liabilities 0 0 0 0 404 1,973 467 450 486 498 Total liabilities and equity 0 0 0 0 11,209 8,252 5,714 5,495 5,414 5,277 Net IB debt 0 0 0 0 1,462 1,581 1,095 1,110 970 805 Market cap. (m) nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 2,671 2,664 2,664 EV nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 3,774 3,634 3,469 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 42 42 EPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.3 0.3 3.5 EPS Core 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.7 0.3 3.5 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th nm nm nm nm nm -37% -1% -14% 11% 9% Net profit grow th nm nm nm nm nm -99% 160% -110% 114% 965% Margins Gross margin nm nm nm nm 61% 48% 42% 33% 36% 40% EBITDA margin nm nm nm nm 61% 48% 42% 33% 36% 40% EBIT margin nm nm nm nm -31% -108% 70% 0% 7% 14% Pretax margin nm nm nm nm -34% -109% 69% -6% 2% 11% Net debt / equity nm nm nm nm 17% 25% 29% 30% 26% 22% EBITDA / net interest nm nm nm nm 15.7x 36.1x 49.6x 5.4x 7.2x 13.2x FCF yield nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 2% 5% 12% Share price nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 64.3 64.2 64.2

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 97

Magseis

Magseis Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 1 13 57 41 59 74 136 463 342 388 COGS -3 -20 -52 -43 -50 -48 -113 -422 -300 -333 EBITDA -2 -7 5 -2 9 26 23 41 42 55 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -0 -2 -8 -10 -11 -15 -19 -58 -42 -40 EBITA -2 -9 -3 -12 -2 11 4 -16 0 15 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 -1 -4 -9 -1 -1 -105 -3 -10 EBIT -2 -9 -4 -16 -11 10 3 -121 -3 5 Interest net 0 1 -2 -0 -1 -0 -2 -6 -15 2 Net financial items 0 0 -2 -0 -1 -0 -2 -7 -15 2 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit -2 -9 -6 -16 -13 10 1 -129 -17 6 Tax 0 0 0 -0 -4 -3 -3 3 5 -1 Net profit -2 -9 -6 -16 -17 7 -3 -126 -12 5 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders -2 -9 -6 -16 -17 7 -3 -126 -12 5 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA -2 -7 5 -2 9 26 23 41 42 55 Net financial items 0 0 -2 -0 -1 -0 -2 -7 -15 2 Paid tax 0 0 -0 -0 -1 -5 -2 2 5 -1 Non-cash items -4 4 4 -5 -1 3 19 60 0 0 Change in WC 1 -7 5 5 -7 -0 -23 16 -1 59 Operating cash flow -4 -10 12 -4 -2 24 14 111 31 113 CAPEX fixed assets -6 -31 -13 -10 -14 -44 -34 -79 -26 -29 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 -163 -22 0 0 Free cash flow -12 -42 -1 -20 -19 -20 -183 10 5 84 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 51 0 24 7 12 39 182 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 0 10 1 -3 6 7 81 0 -16 0 Other non cash items 4 -5 -9 5 -6 -0 -75 -52 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt 43 -37 14 -11 -6 25 5 -42 -11 84 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 7 39 46 47 43 69 153 174 148 127 Fixed assets 9 41 48 52 49 74 308 241 215 194 Current assets 47 20 33 21 38 49 211 123 99 183 Total assets 57 61 82 73 87 124 519 364 314 377 Shareholders equity 54 46 62 56 49 95 334 210 190 195 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 8 0 33 20 3 7 Other long-term liabilities 0 6 4 6 7 13 22 24 16 16 Current liabilities 2 9 15 10 22 15 130 110 104 159 Total liabilities and equity 57 61 82 73 87 124 519 364 314 377 Net IB debt -44 -7 -22 -11 -5 -30 -35 7 17 -67 Market cap. (m) nm 85 109 73 62 120 386 247 112 112 EV -44 71 66 40 51 104 280 118 129 50 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 0 24 28 32 39 61 185 185 185 195 EPS 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 -0.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 EPS Core 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 209% 2351% 348% -28% 45% 25% 85% 239% -26% 13% Net profit grow th 16% -327% 37% -194% -2% 140% -142% -4364% 90% 139% Margins Gross margin -417% -55% 9% -6% 14% 35% 17% 9% 12% 14% EBITDA margin -417% -55% 9% -6% 14% 35% 17% 9% 12% 14% EBIT margin -432% -71% -7% -38% -19% 14% 2% -26% -1% 1% Pretax margin -401% -70% -10% -40% -21% 13% 0% -28% -5% 2% Net debt / equity -82% -16% -35% -19% -9% -31% -11% 3% 9% -34% EBITDA / net interest -14.1x -13.5x 2.6x -5.4x 6.1x 66.0x 9.5x 6.6x 2.9x -34.2x FCF yield nm nm -2% -36% -32% -15% -58% 9% 5% 72% Share price 3.6 3.8 4.0 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.6

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 98

Norwegian Energy Company

Norw egian Energy Company Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 356 715 579 COGS 0 0 0 0 -4 -7 -21 -164 -206 -221 EBITDA 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -19 192 509 358 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -0 -61 -112 -101 EBITA 0 0 0 0 -2 -7 -19 131 397 257 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -278 0 0 EBIT 0 0 0 0 -2 -7 -19 -147 397 257 Interest net 0 0 0 0 -10 -6 3 -40 -66 -69 Net financial items 0 0 0 0 -10 -6 3 19 -66 -69 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 0 0 0 0 -13 -13 -16 -127 331 187 Tax 0 0 0 0 9 5 0 337 -212 -120 Net profit 0 0 0 0 -3 -8 -16 209 119 67 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 0 0 0 0 -3 -8 -16 209 119 67 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -19 192 509 358 Net financial items 0 0 0 0 -10 -6 3 19 -66 -69 Paid tax 0 0 0 0 14 49 0 -61 -74 -25 Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 10 18 10 -7 0 0 Change in WC 0 0 0 0 -40 43 -50 209 -23 -13 Operating cash flow 0 0 0 0 18 44 -21 187 368 264 CAPEX fixed assets 0 0 0 0 -2 -0 0 -155 -396 -279 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -39 -1,151 0 0 Free cash flow 0 0 0 0 13 44 -60 -1,119 -27 -15 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 390 0 40 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 0 0 0 0 67 5 -2 863 0 0 Other non cash items 0 0 0 0 -132 -0 15 -969 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt 0 0 0 0 -52 49 -47 -835 -27 25 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1,740 2,024 2,201 Fixed assets 0 0 0 0 134 137 70 2,597 2,881 3,058 Current assets 0 0 0 0 59 17 56 485 457 482 Total assets 0 0 0 0 193 154 125 3,081 3,338 3,540 Shareholders equity 0 0 0 0 52 59 -4 596 716 823 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 18 19 0 921 921 921 Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0 0 70 73 70 1,142 1,303 1,411 Current liabilities 0 0 0 0 53 3 59 416 393 380 Total liabilities and equity 0 0 0 0 193 154 125 3,076 3,332 3,535 Net IB debt 0 0 0 0 52 3 50 885 913 888 Market cap. (m) nm nm nm nm 68 228 190 198 320 359 EV nm nm nm nm 168 182 171 709 872 886 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 31 31 31 EPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -2.3 6.7 3.8 2.2 EPS Core 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -2.3 15.5 3.8 2.2 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th nm nm nm nm nm -9% 54% 21176% 101% -19% Net profit grow th nm nm nm nm nm -139% -112% 1374% -43% -43% Margins Gross margin nm nm nm nm -199% -588% -1133% 54% 71% 62% EBITDA margin nm nm nm nm -199% -577% -1133% 54% 71% 62% EBIT margin nm nm nm nm -199% -600% -1141% -41% 56% 44% Pretax margin nm nm nm nm -1066% -1159% -981% -36% 46% 32% Net debt / equity nm nm nm nm 100% 5% -1410% 148% 128% 108% EBITDA / net interest nm nm nm nm -0.2x -1.0x -7.1x 4.9x 7.7x 5.2x FCF yield nm nm nm nm 7% 17% -32% -139% -3% -2% Share price nm 462.6 203.6 6.6 9.5 31.9 26.4 27.5 25.7 25.7

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 99

Northern Drilling

Northern Drilling Limited Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 180 244 COGS 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -14 -110 -154 EBITDA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 70 90 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -24 -31 EBITA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 46 60 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 46 60 Interest net 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 -1 -15 -32 Net financial items 0 0 0 0 0 -4 4 -2 -15 -32 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 0 0 0 0 0 -4 2 -3 31 28 Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit 0 0 0 0 0 -4 2 -3 31 28 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 0 0 0 0 0 -4 2 -3 31 28 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 70 90 Net financial items 0 0 0 0 0 -4 4 -2 -15 -32 Paid tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC 0 0 0 0 0 -0 3 -6 0 0 Operating cash flow 0 0 0 0 0 -4 5 -7 55 58 CAPEX fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 -385 -402 -331 0 -472 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow 0 0 0 0 0 -389 -397 -338 55 -414 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 516 245 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 12 0 0 Other non cash items 0 0 0 0 0 -44 -8 -38 -4 -3 Decrease in net IB debt 0 0 0 0 0 84 -159 -364 52 -417 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 385 793 1,159 1,134 1,576 Fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 385 793 1,159 1,134 1,576 Current assets 0 0 0 0 0 84 125 50 61 4 Total assets 0 0 0 0 0 469 918 1,208 1,196 1,580 Shareholders equity 0 0 0 0 0 468 713 709 736 761 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 188 451 411 771 Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 Current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 1 17 46 46 46 Total liabilities and equity 0 0 0 0 0 469 918 1,208 1,196 1,580 Net IB debt 0 0 0 0 0 -84 75 438 387 804 Market cap. (m) nm nm nm nm nm 384 835 486 250 250 EV nm nm nm nm nm 335 657 688 637 1,077 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 0 0 0 0 0 54 100 108 108 118 EPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.0 0.3 0.2 EPS Core 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.0 0.3 0.2 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 1157% 36% Net profit grow th nm nm nm nm nm nm 150% -260% 986% -10% Margins Gross margin nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 3% 39% 37% EBITDA margin nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 3% 39% 37% EBIT margin nm nm nm nm nm nm nm -13% 25% 24% Pretax margin nm nm nm nm nm nm nm -24% 17% 11% Net debt / equity nm nm nm nm nm -18% 10% 62% 53% 106% EBITDA / net interest nm nm nm nm nm -0.6x -0.5x 0.5x 4.7x 2.8x FCF yield nm nm nm nm nm -93% -68% -135% 22% -151% Share price nm nm nm nm nm 7.1 8.3 4.5 2.3 2.3

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 100

Northern Drilling

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 101

Ocean Yield ASA

Ocean Yield Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 188 239 249 257 294 339 343 258 290 295 COGS -37 -31 -33 -33 -29 -33 -61 -33 -23 -18 EBITDA 152 208 217 224 265 306 283 225 267 276 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -86 -102 -100 -97 -100 -103 -99 -73 -63 -63 EBITA 66 106 116 127 165 204 184 152 203 213 Impairment and amortisation charges -6 0 0 -29 -36 0 -32 -73 0 0 EBIT 60 106 116 99 129 204 152 79 203 213 Interest net -33 -16 -20 -19 -36 -59 -83 -100 -95 -91 Net financial items -34 -26 -13 -16 -35 -54 -90 -106 -95 -91 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 26 80 103 82 94 150 62 -28 109 122 Tax 1 3 -3 25 -17 -20 -3 -7 -18 -18 Net profit 27 83 101 107 78 130 59 -35 91 104 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 27 83 101 107 78 130 59 -35 91 104 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 152 208 217 224 265 306 283 225 267 276 Net financial items -34 -26 -13 -16 -35 -54 -90 -106 -95 -91 Paid tax 1 3 -3 25 -7 -8 0 -1 -3 -4 Non-cash items -3 -46 -4 -22 3 -39 -43 -15 0 0 Change in WC 1 10 -7 3 -14 -25 32 13 1 0 Operating cash flow 119 158 183 189 195 170 193 126 146 158 CAPEX fixed assets -339 -260 -373 -290 -539 -59 -421 -563 95 86 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow -220 -102 -189 -101 -345 111 -229 -437 241 243 Dividend paid 0 -56 -69 -81 -96 -110 -119 -122 -111 -105 Share issues and buybacks 0 143 -1 1 105 1 94 79 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 89 -20 9 56 -1 -53 1 2 0 0 Other non cash items -536 31 80 58 -69 33 14 132 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt -667 -4 -170 -67 -406 -19 -240 -346 130 138 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 1,158 1,281 1,308 1,240 1,244 1,311 1,196 1,051 996 940 Fixed assets 1,378 1,523 1,719 1,892 2,388 2,291 2,579 3,007 2,879 2,762 Current assets 120 149 92 133 187 152 148 98 147 80 Total assets 1,498 1,672 1,811 2,025 2,575 2,443 2,727 3,105 3,026 2,843 Shareholders equity 533 704 708 697 804 821 846 897 899 920 Minority 0 0 11 12 11 10 0 13 13 13 Long-term debt 747 745 853 975 1,380 1,401 1,572 1,758 1,677 1,472 Other long-term liabilities 90 70 44 129 92 73 65 30 30 30 Current liabilities 129 154 196 212 287 137 244 406 407 408 Total liabilities and equity 1,499 1,672 1,811 2,025 2,575 2,443 2,727 3,105 3,026 2,843 Net IB debt 735 715 898 1,016 1,421 1,409 1,635 1,973 1,843 1,704 Market cap. (m) nm 684 841 984 1,073 1,194 1,317 1,121 957 957 EV nm 1,479 1,694 2,061 2,354 2,474 2,521 2,725 2,572 2,409 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 100 134 134 135 148 148 159 167 175 175 EPS 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.6 EPS Core 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 Dividend per share 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th nm 27% 4% 3% 15% 15% 1% -25% 12% 2% Net profit grow th nm 209% 22% 6% -27% 67% -55% -159% 361% 15% Margins Gross margin 81% 87% 87% 87% 90% 90% 82% 87% 92% 94% EBITDA margin 81% 87% 87% 87% 90% 90% 82% 87% 92% 94% EBIT margin 32% 44% 47% 38% 44% 60% 44% 30% 70% 72% Pretax margin 14% 34% 41% 32% 32% 44% 18% -11% 37% 41% Net debt / equity 138% 102% 125% 143% 174% 169% 193% 217% 202% 183% EBITDA / net interest 4.7x 13.1x 10.9x 11.5x 7.4x 5.2x 3.4x 2.2x 2.8x 3.0x FCF yield nm nm -24% -10% -31% 9% -21% -48% 25% 25% Share price nm 5.1 6.3 7.3 7.2 8.0 8.3 6.4 5.5 5.5

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 102

Odfjell Drilling

Odfjell Drilling Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 1,084 1,175 1,015 927 657 662 698 811 898 919 COGS -753 -803 -745 -579 -373 -400 -441 -488 -537 -545 EBITDA 321 374 270 76 285 274 260 323 360 374 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -147 -146 -141 -164 -172 -161 -161 -182 -190 -190 EBITA 174 228 129 -88 112 112 99 142 170 184 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 -157 -78 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 174 228 129 -245 34 112 99 142 170 184 Interest net -19 -73 -50 -64 -69 -76 -66 -86 -80 -69 Net financial items 2 -77 -50 -90 -73 -77 -67 -94 -80 -69 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 176 152 79 -335 -39 35 32 48 90 115 Tax -31 -102 -36 16 -25 -3 -4 -5 -13 -17 Net profit 144 50 42 -319 -64 33 28 43 76 98 Minority interest -14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 130 50 42 -319 -64 33 28 43 76 98 Total extraordinary items before tax -13 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax -13 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 321 374 270 76 285 274 260 323 360 374 Net financial items 2 -77 -50 -90 -73 -77 -67 -94 -80 -69 Paid tax -31 -102 -36 16 -25 -3 -4 -5 -13 -17 Non-cash items -3 -34 104 211 -6 0 25 25 25 25 Change in WC 0 -18 48 59 62 -8 15 -53 -1 8 Operating cash flow 290 143 335 271 243 186 230 197 291 321 CAPEX fixed assets -211 -109 -779 -149 -31 -29 -306 -424 -121 -57 Acquisitions and disposals -95 34 -15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow -16 68 -458 123 212 156 -76 -227 170 264 Dividend paid -17 -9 -10 0 0 0 0 0 0 -84 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities -3 38 -57 -40 -91 -10 13 38 0 0 Other non cash items 42 -69 84 35 122 17 185 -120 -25 59 Decrease in net IB debt 6 28 -442 118 243 163 122 -309 145 239 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 30 27 37 42 33 33 30 28 28 28 Tangible fixed assets 1,872 1,780 2,312 2,131 1,913 1,782 1,928 2,264 2,196 2,062 Fixed assets 2,323 2,239 2,657 2,189 1,879 1,741 1,882 2,216 2,147 2,014 Current assets 481 497 435 428 385 397 395 374 325 391 Total assets 2,804 2,736 3,092 2,617 2,264 2,138 2,276 2,591 2,472 2,405 Shareholders equity 1,125 1,130 1,116 792 722 767 1,024 1,053 1,129 1,227 Minority 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 1,141 1,092 1,471 879 1,208 1,076 783 1,133 938 768 Other long-term liabilities 93 102 90 46 19 23 10 55 55 55 Current liabilities 417 411 416 900 314 272 459 350 350 355 Total liabilities and equity 2,804 2,736 3,092 2,617 2,264 2,138 2,276 2,591 2,472 2,405 Net IB debt 1,099 1,071 1,513 1,395 1,152 989 867 1,176 1,032 793 Market cap. (m) nm 1,346 965 191 173 564 943 714 791 791 EV nm 1,833 1,564 1,507 1,540 1,872 1,404 1,964 1,820 1,581 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 200 200 200 226 199 199 227 237 237 237 EPS 0.7 0.2 0.2 -1.4 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 EPS Core 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Dividend per share 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 3% 8% -14% -9% -29% 1% 5% 16% 11% 2% Net profit grow th 19% -66% -15% -853% 80% 151% -14% 53% 78% 28% Margins Gross margin 31% 32% 27% 38% 43% 40% 37% 40% 40% 41% EBITDA margin 30% 32% 27% 8% 43% 41% 37% 40% 40% 41% EBIT margin 16% 19% 13% -26% 5% 17% 14% 17% 19% 20% Pretax margin 16% 13% 8% -36% -6% 5% 5% 6% 10% 13% Net debt / equity 95% 95% 136% 176% 160% 129% 85% 112% 91% 65% EBITDA / net interest 16.9x 5.1x 5.4x 1.2x 4.1x 3.6x 3.9x 3.7x 4.5x 5.4x FCF yield nm nm -128% 97% 53% 18% -14% -29% 22% 33% Share price nm 6.7 4.8 0.8 0.9 2.8 4.1 3.0 3.3 3.3

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 103

PGS

PGS Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 1,518 1,502 1,454 962 764 839 835 880 1,034 1,118 COGS -704 -635 -714 -460 -430 -447 -308 -316 -316 -338 EBITDA 776 828 703 482 309 374 516 552 698 760 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -484 -448 -599 -598 -489 -759 -480 -482 -467 -483 EBITA 292 380 103 -116 -180 -385 36 70 231 276 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 -315 -4 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 292 380 103 -431 -184 -385 36 70 231 276 Interest net -31 -33 -30 -29 -46 -58 -62 -65 -77 -69 Net financial items -66 -54 -88 -75 -82 -85 -87 -81 -77 -69 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 226 326 16 -506 -267 -470 -52 -11 154 207 Tax -43 -90 -59 -22 -31 -55 -40 -21 -30 -50 Net profit 183 236 -44 -528 -298 -525 -92 -31 124 158 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 183 236 -44 -528 -298 -525 -92 -31 124 158 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 776 828 703 482 309 374 516 552 698 760 Net financial items -66 -54 -88 -75 -82 -85 -87 -81 -77 -69 Paid tax -22 -33 -18 -25 -12 -13 -27 -33 -30 -50 Non-cash items -22 6 -8 -65 8 -69 -214 44 -10 -8 Change in WC 19 -27 -92 101 16 -11 171 10 26 2 Operating cash flow 686 720 497 418 238 198 358 492 607 634 CAPEX fixed assets -657 -861 -777 -427 -529 -300 -350 -254 -330 -413 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow 29 -141 -281 -9 -290 -103 8 239 277 221 Dividend paid -42 -61 -230 -20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 108 215 35 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities -4 3 15 -27 26 23 -27 -16 0 0 Other non cash items 2 -27 137 35 -4 -25 21 -207 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt -15 -226 -358 86 -53 -70 2 16 277 221 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 140 140 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 1,820 2,206 2,359 2,093 2,039 1,810 1,808 1,725 1,598 1,536 Fixed assets 2,437 2,781 2,906 2,444 2,435 2,035 2,020 1,917 1,790 1,728 Current assets 837 763 657 470 382 448 365 482 692 870 Total assets 3,274 3,544 3,563 2,914 2,817 2,483 2,385 2,399 2,482 2,598 Shareholders equity 1,922 2,066 1,910 1,464 1,359 880 722 641 765 923 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 916 1,020 1,160 1,100 1,132 1,136 1,165 998 928 872 Other long-term liabilities 68 69 83 52 79 100 73 57 57 57 Current liabilities 369 391 410 298 246 367 425 703 732 746 Total liabilities and equity 3,274 3,544 3,563 2,914 2,817 2,483 2,385 2,399 2,482 2,598 Net IB debt 526 752 1,110 1,024 1,077 1,146 1,145 1,129 852 630 Market cap. (m) 3,155 3,035 1,926 1,210 868 779 1,231 606 701 701 EV 4,225 3,281 2,333 2,011 2,175 1,835 1,602 1,830 1,553 1,332 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 217 215 214 240 324 339 339 339 339 339 EPS 0.8 1.1 -0.2 -2.2 -0.9 -1.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.5 EPS Core 0.8 1.1 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.5 Dividend per share 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 21% -1% -3% -34% -21% 10% -1% 5% 17% 8% Net profit grow th 323% 29% -118% -1111% 44% -76% 82% 66% 494% 28% Margins Gross margin 54% 58% 51% 52% 44% 47% 63% 64% 69% 70% EBITDA margin 51% 55% 48% 50% 40% 45% 62% 63% 67% 68% EBIT margin 19% 25% 7% -45% -24% -46% 4% 8% 22% 25% Pretax margin 15% 22% 1% -53% -35% -56% -6% -1% 15% 19% Net debt / equity 27% 36% 58% 70% 79% 130% 159% 176% 111% 68% EBITDA / net interest 25.3x 25.3x 23.3x 16.4x 6.7x 6.5x 8.3x 8.4x 9.1x 11.1x FCF yield nm nm -23% -1% -26% -15% 2% 34% 40% 32% Share price 14.6 14.1 9.0 5.0 2.7 2.3 3.6 1.8 2.1 2.1 s

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 104

Polarcus

Polarcus Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 530 532 467 377 243 179 202 296 279 291 COGS -339 -320 -310 -233 -243 -138 -173 -233 -181 -177 EBITDA 191 211 157 145 1 41 29 62 98 114 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -99 -94 -149 -457 -132 -178 -49 -34 -34 -37 EBITA 92 117 8 -312 -131 -137 -20 28 64 77 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 92 117 8 -312 -131 -137 -20 28 64 77 Interest net -81 -69 -56 -49 -35 -42 -31 -32 -28 -24 Net financial items -80 -73 -77 -59 155 -35 -31 -32 -28 -24 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 12 44 -69 -371 24 -172 -51 -4 36 52 Tax -2 1 -0 -1 -3 -0 0 -0 0 0 Net profit 10 45 -69 -372 20 -172 -51 -4 36 52 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 10 45 -69 -372 20 -172 -51 -4 36 52 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 191 211 157 145 1 41 29 62 98 114 Net financial items -80 -73 -77 -59 155 -35 -31 -32 -28 -24 Paid tax -2 1 -0 -1 -3 -0 0 -0 0 0 Non-cash items 214 -64 75 89 -158 -2 30 33 0 0 Change in WC -121 119 3 -7 53 31 -17 -23 -0 0 Operating cash flow 202 194 158 167 48 34 11 40 70 90 CAPEX fixed assets -353 -123 -113 -105 -61 -28 -101 -18 -29 -36 Acquisitions and disposals 0 128 0 6 -7 -1 7 0 0 0 Free cash flow -151 199 45 68 -20 5 -83 22 41 54 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks -41 0 38 0 0 39 43 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities -0 0 13 -13 37 -37 0 0 0 0 Other non cash items -3 -95 -53 -69 334 -2 8 -28 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt -195 104 43 -14 351 4 -32 -6 41 54 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 39 34 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 1,052 1,062 1,017 685 488 335 382 360 354 353 Fixed assets 1,052 1,101 1,051 687 488 335 382 361 354 353 Current assets 320 214 195 160 83 68 84 103 129 152 Total assets 1,372 1,315 1,246 847 572 403 466 464 483 505 Shareholders equity 481 528 492 114 179 45 78 74 110 163 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 692 634 628 684 35 0 326 323 293 263 Other long-term liabilities 0 0 13 27 48 9 0 0 0 0 Current liabilities 199 153 112 23 310 350 62 67 81 80 Total liabilities and equity 1,372 1,315 1,246 847 572 403 466 464 485 507 Net IB debt 763 659 616 656 289 283 306 312 272 217 Market cap. (m) 44,091 43,701 30,900 277 434 40 111 68 74 74 EV 58,431 38,099 6,063 773 560 309 365 386 345 291 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 507 507 670 67 530 153 514 514 514 514 EPS 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -5.6 0.0 -1.1 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.1 EPS Core 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -5.6 0.0 -1.1 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.1 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 77% 0% -12% -19% -35% -26% 13% 46% -6% 4% Net profit grow th 133% 341% -252% -439% 105% -951% 71% 92% 952% 45% Margins Gross margin 36% 40% 34% 38% 0% 23% 14% 21% 35% 39% EBITDA margin 36% 40% 34% 38% 0% 23% 14% 21% 35% 39% EBIT margin 17% 22% 2% -83% -54% -77% -10% 10% 23% 26% Pretax margin 2% 8% -15% -98% 10% -96% -25% -1% 13% 18% Net debt / equity 158% 125% 125% 577% 161% 632% 391% 421% 246% 134% EBITDA / net interest 2.4x 3.1x 2.8x 3.0x 0.0x 1.0x 0.9x 1.9x 3.5x 4.7x FCF yield nm nm 1% 58% -7% 19% -140% 30% 56% 73% Share price 86.9 86.2 46.1 4.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 105

Prosafe

Prosafe Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 510 524 549 475 474 283 331 238 177 251 COGS -230 -217 -236 -212 -221 -160 -164 -128 -137 -192 EBITDA 280 307 313 263 253 123 167 110 39 59 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -58 -62 -64 -87 -116 -127 -113 -96 -83 -73 EBITA 222 245 248 176 138 -4 54 14 -44 -14 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 -146 -85 -574 -1 -346 0 0 EBIT 222 245 248 31 53 -578 53 -332 -44 -14 Interest net -40 -33 -37 -41 -85 -74 -72 -62 -62 -61 Net financial items -44 -41 -57 -71 137 -61 -162 -81 -62 -61 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 178 204 191 -40 190 -639 -109 -413 -105 -76 Tax -1 -5 -13 -11 -17 -8 -6 -4 -2 -3 Net profit 178 199 179 -51 173 -647 -114 -417 -107 -78 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 178 199 179 -51 173 -647 -114 -417 -107 -78 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 280 307 313 263 253 123 167 110 39 59 Net financial items -44 -41 -57 -71 137 -61 -162 -81 -62 -61 Paid tax -1 -5 -13 -11 -17 -8 -6 -4 -2 -3 Non-cash items -39 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC 4 6 63 15 -59 -23 45 -41 -0 -3 Operating cash flow 200 276 306 197 314 31 44 -16 -24 -8 CAPEX fixed assets -215 -223 -211 -701 -484 -10 -9 -72 -12 -20 Acquisitions and disposals 39 3 0 0 0 2 4 1 42 0 Free cash flow 24 56 95 -504 -170 23 40 -87 5 -28 Dividend paid -118 -140 -125 -35 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 131 0 68 140 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities -2 -42 31 3 3 -5 -39 13 0 0 Other non cash items 79 19 -41 -15 41 48 12 -78 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt -18 24 -41 -483 14 66 13 -153 5 -28 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 227 227 227 227 227 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 1,032 1,196 1,339 1,807 2,152 1,652 1,548 1,256 1,186 1,133 Fixed assets 1,281 1,427 1,572 2,039 2,392 1,663 1,559 1,259 1,188 1,136 Current assets 207 191 245 149 295 284 178 177 150 111 Total assets 1,487 1,618 1,817 2,187 2,687 1,947 1,737 1,436 1,339 1,247 Shareholders equity 516 740 749 715 1,130 498 400 -16 -124 -202 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 746 780 830 1,108 1,343 1,329 1,199 1,363 1,331 1,307 Other long-term liabilities 67 25 56 59 62 58 19 31 31 31 Current liabilities 159 74 182 306 152 63 120 58 58 70 Total liabilities and equity 1,487 1,618 1,817 2,187 2,687 1,947 1,737 1,436 1,297 1,205 Net IB debt 685 661 702 1,185 1,171 1,105 1,093 1,245 1,240 1,269 Market cap. (m) 109,202 133,985 98,576 49,369 2,431 279 203 112 35 35 EV 118,886 114,388 46,543 39,849 1,537 1,234 1,228 1,279 1,276 1,304 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 223 236 236 260 85 88 88 85 88 88 EPS 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.2 2.0 -7.3 -1.3 -4.9 -1.2 -0.9 EPS Core 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 3.0 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 Dividend per share 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 14% 3% 5% -13% 0% -40% 17% -28% -26% 42% Net profit grow th 12% 12% -10% -128% 441% -475% 82% -264% 74% 27% Margins Gross margin 55% 59% 57% 55% 53% 43% 50% 46% 22% 23% EBITDA margin 55% 59% 57% 55% 53% 43% 50% 46% 22% 23% EBIT margin 44% 47% 45% 6% 11% -204% 16% -139% -25% -6% Pretax margin 35% 39% 35% -8% 40% -226% -33% -173% -60% -30% Net debt / equity 133% 89% 94% 166% 104% 222% 273% -7555% -1001% -627% EBITDA / net interest 7.0x 9.3x 8.4x 6.4x 3.0x 1.7x 2.3x 1.8x 0.6x 1.0x FCF yield nm nm 0% -1% -47% 17% 29% -255% 14% -80% Share price 489.8 567.8 417.7 190.2 28.5 3.2 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.4

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 106

Seabird

Seabird Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 163 178 129 94 72 19 20 49 60 68 COGS -120 -146 -137 -83 -50 -45 -25 -53 -48 -51 EBITDA 44 32 -8 11 22 -26 -5 -3 12 17 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -39 -27 -72 -29 -25 -21 -7 -14 -10 -12 EBITA 4 5 -80 -18 -3 -46 -12 -17 2 5 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 4 5 -80 -18 -3 -46 -12 -17 2 5 Interest net -13 -13 -18 57 -4 -4 -1 0 -0 -0 Net financial items -13 -13 -18 57 -4 -4 -1 0 -0 -0 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit -9 -8 -98 39 -7 -51 -14 -17 2 5 Tax -9 1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 -0 -0 -0 Net profit -18 -7 -100 38 -8 -51 -13 -17 2 5 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders -18 -7 -100 38 -8 -51 -13 -17 2 5 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 44 32 -8 11 22 -26 -5 -3 12 17 Net financial items -13 -13 -18 57 -4 -4 -1 0 -0 -0 Paid tax -1 1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 -0 Non-cash items -13 15 14 -46 4 10 5 -1 0 0 Change in WC -2 -9 54 -26 -0 2 -10 -5 -1 1 Operating cash flow 13 26 40 -7 21 -19 -11 -8 11 18 CAPEX fixed assets -15 -23 -37 -6 -6 -1 -23 -21 -7 -14 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow -2 3 3 -13 15 -20 -34 -30 4 4 Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 14 8 0 11 0 13 34 27 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities -0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 -1 0 0 Other non cash items 0 -30 -86 169 -8 32 0 -6 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt 12 -19 -84 167 7 25 2 -10 4 4 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 131 123 79 67 48 28 42 56 54 56 Fixed assets 135 131 94 71 51 28 44 58 55 57 Current assets 62 58 47 36 21 13 14 28 40 48 Total assets 197 189 141 107 72 41 58 86 95 105 Shareholders equity 53 58 -41 30 22 15 38 54 55 60 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 94 72 0 31 23 4 5 0 0 0 Other long-term liabilities 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 Current liabilities 49 58 182 46 27 22 14 31 38 44 Total liabilities and equity 197 189 141 107 72 41 58 86 95 105 Net IB debt 87 87 95 27 16 -2 -1 2 -2 -6 Market cap. (m) 385,435 711,023 151,688 621 39 423 65 64 35 35 EV 706,211 316,690 81,731 169 182 20 42 37 33 29 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 48 63 64 8 8 63 290 544 544 544 EPS -0.4 -0.1 -1.6 4.7 -1.0 -0.8 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS Core -0.4 -0.1 -1.6 4.7 -1.0 -0.8 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 30% 9% -27% -27% -23% -73% 2% 152% 21% 14% Net profit grow th 87% 63% -1392% 138% -121% -533% 75% -33% 110% 191% Margins Gross margin 27% 18% -6% 12% 31% -133% -26% -7% 20% 26% EBITDA margin 27% 18% -6% 12% 31% -133% -26% -7% 20% 26% EBIT margin 3% 3% -62% -19% -4% -242% -64% -35% 3% 8% Pretax margin -6% -5% -76% 42% -10% -264% -70% -34% 3% 8% Net debt / equity 166% 151% -233% 92% 71% -13% -4% 4% -4% -10% EBITDA / net interest 3.2x 2.5x -0.4x -0.2x 5.2x -6.0x -4.1x -8.0x 53.1x 94.4x FCF yield nm nm 0% -9% 9% -94% -78% -84% 12% 12% Share price 9084.9 12348.2 2589.4 202.5 12.7 7.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 107

Seadrill

Seadrill Ltd. Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 4,479 5,282 4,997 4,373 3,190 2,115 1,260 1,265 1,163 1,322 COGS -2,071 -2,534 -2,425 -1,958 -1,310 -1,104 -949 -994 -942 -940 EBITDA 2,408 2,809 3,204 2,361 1,880 766 309 271 222 382 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -614 -711 -693 -779 -823 -1,494 -157 -558 -428 -428 EBITA 1,794 2,098 2,511 1,582 1,057 -728 151 -287 -206 -46 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 -232 -563 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 1,794 2,098 2,279 1,019 1,057 -728 151 -287 -206 -46 Interest net -316 -421 -415 -348 -333 -225 -240 -405 -364 -378 Net financial items -463 -421 -415 -348 -333 -225 -3,724 -405 -364 -378 Associated income -219 -223 89 245 276 174 60 -112 -43 -2 Other EO items 254 1,486 2,153 -1,458 -966 -2,257 -3,484 -428 -47 -48 Pretax profit 1,366 2,940 4,106 -542 34 -3,036 -6,997 -1,232 -660 -474 Tax -179 -154 -19 -208 -199 -66 -38 0 -30 -35 Net profit 1,187 2,786 4,087 -750 -165 -3,102 -7,035 -1,232 -690 -509 Minority interest -111 -133 -108 12 -25 129 9 4 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 1,076 2,653 3,979 -738 -190 -2,973 -7,026 -1,228 -690 -509 Total extraordinary items before tax 254 1,547 2,785 -1,512 -966 -2,502 -3,486 -428 -47 -48 Total extraordinary items after tax 254 1,547 2,785 -1,512 -966 -2,502 -3,486 -428 -47 -48 Cash Flow EBITDA 2,408 2,809 3,204 2,361 1,880 766 309 271 222 382 Net financial items -463 -421 -415 -348 -333 -225 -3,724 -405 -364 -378 Paid tax -179 -154 -19 -208 -199 -66 -38 0 -30 -35 Non-cash items -558 -1,484 -1,282 -28 -145 -120 -120 -120 -120 -120 Change in WC 382 716 86 11 -194 -1,010 168 19 -11 -17 Operating cash flow 1,590 1,466 1,574 1,788 1,009 -655 -3,405 -234 -304 -168 CAPEX fixed assets -1,557 -4,273 -2,873 -935 -136 -67 -127 -57 -160 -160 Acquisitions and disposals 197 1,309 2,939 745 464 134 88 34 0 0 Free cash flow 230 -1,498 1,640 1,598 1,337 -588 -3,444 -257 -464 -328 Dividend paid -1,925 -1,287 -1,415 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 143 593 -142 -279 -306 -57 34 -39 0 0 Other non cash items -84 -675 1,905 948 430 -123 7,060 174 73 72 Decrease in net IB debt -1,636 -2,867 1,988 2,267 1,461 -768 3,650 -123 -391 -256 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 1,320 1,200 604 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 14,776 20,612 17,175 16,409 15,807 13,464 6,659 6,368 6,100 5,832 Fixed assets 17,278 23,466 23,091 20,528 18,987 15,730 8,081 7,416 7,104 6,834 Current assets 2,355 2,834 3,415 2,942 2,716 2,252 2,767 1,834 1,385 1,103 Total assets 19,633 26,300 26,506 23,470 21,703 17,982 10,848 9,250 8,489 7,937 Shareholders equity 5,384 7,512 9,764 9,371 9,565 6,560 2,883 1,651 959 450 Minority 693 690 626 604 536 399 190 151 151 151 Long-term debt 9,630 13,315 10,726 9,492 6,649 9,990 7,103 6,546 6,467 6,411 Other long-term liabilities 365 958 816 537 231 174 208 169 169 169 Current liabilities 3,561 3,825 4,574 3,466 4,722 859 464 734 743 756 Total liabilities and equity 19,633 26,300 26,506 23,470 21,703 17,982 10,848 9,250 8,489 7,937 Net IB debt 11,325 14,192 12,204 9,937 8,476 9,244 5,594 5,717 6,107 6,364 Market cap. (m) 17,769 19,333 15,381 4,513 1,440 436 844 506 221 221 EV 27,893 33,268 14,168 9,054 8,036 7,899 5,710 5,563 5,954 6,210 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 469 490 481 493 497 509 100 100 100 100 EPS 2.3 5.4 8.3 -1.5 -0.4 -5.8 -70.3 -12.3 -6.9 -5.1 EPS Core 1.8 2.3 3.0 2.7 1.6 -0.9 -35.4 -8.0 -6.4 -4.6 Dividend per share 3.5 3.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 6% 18% -5% -12% -27% -34% -40% 0% -8% 14% Net profit grow th -18% 135% 47% -118% 78% -1780% -127% 82% 44% 26% Margins Gross margin 54% 52% 51% 55% 59% 48% 25% 21% 19% 29% EBITDA margin 54% 53% 64% 54% 59% 36% 25% 21% 19% 29% EBIT margin 40% 40% 46% 23% 33% -34% 12% -23% -18% -3% Pretax margin 35% 60% 80% -18% -8% -152% -560% -89% -53% -36% Net debt / equity 186% 173% 117% 100% 84% 133% 182% 317% 550% 1058% EBITDA / net interest 7.6x 6.7x 7.7x 6.8x 5.6x 3.4x 1.3x 0.7x 0.6x 1.0x FCF yield nm nm 29% 94% 78% -461% -376% -116% -210% -148% Share price 37.9 41.2 32.0 9.2 2.9 0.9 8.4 5.1 2.2 2.2

13 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 108

Subsea 7

Subsea 7 Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 6,297 6,297 6,869 4,758 3,567 3,986 4,074 3,710 4,417 4,559 COGS -5,243 -5,428 -5,500 -3,605 -2,472 -2,909 -3,403 -3,107 -3,709 -3,791 EBITDA 1,139 981 1,438 1,217 1,141 1,034 668 600 719 780 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -333 -361 -490 -552 -530 -454 -430 -486 -462 -452 EBITA 806 619 948 664 611 581 238 115 257 328 Impairment and amortisation charges 3 -46 -1,191 -521 -90 0 -39 0 0 0 EBIT 808 573 -243 144 521 581 200 115 257 328 Interest net -29 -49 9 9 11 4 2 -13 -11 -5 Net financial items 261 -63 24 41 56 -26 -11 -20 -11 -5 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 1,069 511 -218 185 577 554 217 95 245 323 Tax -222 -161 -152 -222 -158 -100 -52 -38 -81 -107 Net profit 847 350 -370 -37 418 455 165 57 164 217 Minority interest -17 -17 26 22 18 0 18 6 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 830 333 -344 -15 436 455 183 62 164 217 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 1,139 981 1,438 1,217 1,141 1,034 668 600 719 780 Net financial items 261 -63 24 41 56 -26 -11 -20 -11 -5 Paid tax -222 -161 -152 -222 -158 -100 -52 -38 -81 -107 Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in WC -307 246 524 82 52 -534 -168 -47 -1 -0 Operating cash flow 871 1,003 1,835 1,118 1,091 374 438 495 626 668 CAPEX fixed assets -713 -739 -861 -645 -300 -154 -238 -260 -216 -227 Acquisitions and disposals 359 6 0 91 83 -160 -199 -23 0 0 Free cash flow 518 270 974 565 874 60 1 212 410 441 Dividend paid -199 -202 -195 0 0 0 -204 -53 -53 -53 Share issues and buybacks -196 -83 -166 0 0 0 -93 -250 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities -46 42 25 -73 -6 31 -22 -60 0 0 Other non cash items -234 -42 -382 -63 -41 -514 -1 -351 103 103 Decrease in net IB debt -158 -15 257 428 826 -423 -320 -605 358 389 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 2,575 2,585 1,322 767 628 701 751 768 768 768 Tangible fixed assets 3,852 4,301 4,745 4,674 4,197 4,752 4,644 4,550 4,406 4,284 Fixed assets 6,674 7,221 6,463 5,828 5,238 5,562 5,473 5,374 5,230 5,108 Current assets 3,821 3,137 2,162 2,026 2,565 2,182 2,096 1,753 2,269 2,604 Total assets 10,495 10,357 8,624 7,854 7,803 7,745 7,569 7,127 7,499 7,712 Shareholders equity 6,325 6,566 5,537 5,315 5,521 5,893 5,683 5,424 5,536 5,700 Minority 44 47 25 31 16 48 38 28 28 28 Long-term debt 1,041 636 576 524 0 258 234 215 215 215 Other long-term liabilities 217 258 283 210 204 235 213 152 152 152 Current liabilities 2,869 2,851 2,203 1,774 2,063 1,310 1,401 1,292 1,552 1,601 Total liabilities and equity 10,495 10,357 8,624 7,854 7,803 7,745 7,569 7,111 7,482 7,696 Net IB debt 248 262 6 -423 -1,249 -826 -507 99 -259 -648 Market cap. (m) 8,836 8,122 5,366 3,088 3,236 4,846 4,544 3,351 3,622 3,622 EV 7,736 6,051 3,024 1,657 2,740 4,064 2,571 3,695 3,337 2,948 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 395 378 328 343 344 327 324 299 299 299 EPS 2.1 0.9 -1.0 -0.0 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.7 EPS Core 2.1 1.0 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 Dividend per share 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 15% 0% 9% -31% -25% 12% 2% -9% 19% 3% Net profit grow th 88% -59% -206% 90% 1227% 9% -64% -65% 189% 32% Margins Gross margin 17% 14% 20% 24% 31% 27% 16% 16% 16% 17% EBITDA margin 18% 16% 21% 26% 32% 26% 16% 16% 16% 17% EBIT margin 13% 9% -4% 3% 15% 15% 5% 3% 6% 7% Pretax margin 17% 8% -3% 4% 16% 14% 5% 3% 6% 7% Net debt / equity 4% 4% 0% -8% -23% -14% -9% 2% -5% -11% EBITDA / net interest 39.3x 20.1x -159.8x -143.1x -105.7x -279.6x -318.3x 46.5x 62.8x 169.5x FCF yield nm nm 29% 23% 20% 1% 0% 6% 11% 12% Share price 22.4 21.5 16.3 9.0 9.4 14.8 14.0 11.2 12.1 12.1

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TGS Nopec

TGS Nopec Financial Statments (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income Statement Sales 932 883 915 612 456 492 622 783 978 1,046 COGS -130 -150 -143 -113 -93 -83 -105 -143 -148 -149 EBITDA 802 733 772 499 363 409 517 640 830 896 Depreciation tangibles and intangibles -399 -346 -477 -520 -310 -312 -345 -387 -442 -502 EBITA 403 387 295 -21 53 97 172 253 388 394 Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 403 387 295 -21 53 97 172 253 388 394 Interest net 4 -6 -6 -3 -0 2 7 4 8 9 Net financial items 4 -6 -6 -3 -0 2 7 4 8 9 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 406 381 288 -24 53 100 179 257 396 403 Tax -124 -112 -72 -4 -31 -24 -41 -59 -91 -93 Net profit 283 269 216 -28 22 76 138 198 305 311 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 283 269 216 -28 22 76 138 198 305 311 Total extraordinary items before tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow EBITDA 802 733 772 499 363 409 517 640 830 896 Net financial items 4 -6 -6 -3 -0 2 7 4 8 9 Paid tax -124 -112 -72 -4 -31 -24 -41 -59 -91 -93 Non-cash items 0 -11 3 114 -25 -9 19 59 0 0 Change in WC -47 -28 -50 51 -11 72 -119 -129 -11 -7 Operating cash flow 635 576 646 657 296 450 383 515 736 806 CAPEX fixed assets -505 -447 -502 -539 -240 -352 -289 -294 -468 -510 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow 131 129 144 119 56 97 94 221 268 296 Dividend paid -103 -142 -126 -113 -59 -62 -81 -115 -190 -262 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 Change in non interest bearing liabilities 56 -6 21 -14 10 -60 -1 192 0 0 Other non cash items -43 -45 -43 -100 30 24 11 -15 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt 40 -64 -3 -108 38 -1 22 283 78 34 Balance Sheet Goodw ill and intangibles 112 85 67 68 68 68 68 281 263 245 Tangible fixed assets 32 53 43 30 23 20 23 29 35 42 Fixed assets 234 247 172 145 116 102 100 349 337 326 Current assets 1,452 1,489 1,596 1,310 1,357 1,323 1,380 1,813 2,059 2,137 Total assets 1,686 1,736 1,768 1,455 1,473 1,424 1,480 2,161 2,397 2,463 Shareholders equity 1,168 1,293 1,339 1,198 1,164 1,200 1,265 1,671 1,786 1,835 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17 17 Other long-term liabilities 143 102 36 39 47 29 32 71 71 71 Current liabilities 375 342 393 218 262 195 182 437 557 575 Total liabilities and equity 1,686 1,736 1,768 1,455 1,473 1,424 1,480 2,196 2,431 2,497 Net IB debt -339 -281 -256 -163 -191 -250 -274 -330 -408 -442 Market cap. (m) 2,923 3,301 2,882 2,195 1,722 2,255 3,229 3,227 3,557 3,557 EV 2,967 2,426 1,954 1,463 2,072 2,162 2,155 3,226 3,149 3,115 Per share data Diluted shares (adj, avg) 102 102 101 101 102 102 102 119 119 119 EPS 2.8 2.6 2.1 -0.3 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.6 2.6 EPS Core 2.8 2.6 2.1 -0.3 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.6 2.6 Dividend per share 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.2 Grow th rates Y/Y Sales grow th 53% -5% 4% -33% -26% 8% 26% 26% 25% 7% Net profit grow th 66% -5% -20% -113% 178% 244% 82% 44% 54% 2% Margins Gross margin 86% 83% 84% 81% 80% 83% 83% 82% 85% 86% EBITDA margin 86% 83% 84% 81% 80% 83% 83% 82% 85% 86% EBIT margin 43% 44% 32% -3% 12% 20% 28% 32% 40% 38% Pretax margin 44% 43% 32% -4% 12% 20% 29% 33% 40% 39% Net debt / equity -29% -22% -19% -14% -16% -21% -22% -20% -23% -24% EBITDA / net interest -212.8x 132.9x 125.5x 152.3x 1004.9x -185.5x -76.7x -151.1x -106.4x -96.3x FCF yield nm nm 7% 7% 2% 4% 4% 6% 8% 8% Share price 28.7 32.3 28.5 21.6 16.9 22.2 31.8 27.1 29.9 29.9

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

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Analyst certification I/We, Haakon Amundsen, John Olaisen, Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen, Lukas Daul, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities covered in this report. I/We further certify that I/We have not been, nor am/are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

Stock ratings distribution ABG Sundal Collier Ratings and Investment Banking by 10/01/2020

Sell 13% Research Coverage Investment Banking Clients (IBC) % of % of % of Total of Rating Total Rating Total IBC Total Rating by Type Buy 54% 82% 24% Buy Hold 54% Hold 33% 16% 8% 33% Sell 13% 2% 3%

IBC: Companies in respect of which ABG SC or an affiliate has received compensation fr investment banking services within the past 12 months

Analyst stock ratings definitions BUY = We expect this stock’s total return to exceed the market’s expected total return by 5% or more over the next six months. HOLD = We expect this stock’s total return to be in line with the market’s expected total return within a range of 4% over the next six months. SELL = We expect this stock’s total return to underperform the market’s expected total return by 5% or more over the next six months.

Analyst valuation methods When setting the individual ratings, ABG Sundal Collier assumes that a normal total absolute return (including dividends) for the market is 8% per annum, or 4% on a 6-month basis. Therefore, when we rate a stock a buy, we expect an absolute return of 9% or better over six months. We have more rigorous guidelines for trading buys and trading sells on small cap stocks, defined as having a market capitalisation below USD 1.5 billion. For trading buys on small cap stocks, we must identify a potential absolute return of 15% or more over the next six weeks. This more rigorous guideline reflects the fact that the low trading volume for small cap stocks inhibits the ability to trade them within a narrow price band.

ABG Sundal Collier analysts publish price targets for the stocks they cover. These price targets rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company’s discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company’s return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital. Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered. Price targets are changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company’s assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.

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www.abgsc.com.

Important Company Specific Disclosure ssss mo

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to the research section of our website located at www.abgsc.com.

All prices are as of market close on 09 January, 2020 unless otherwise noted.

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The compensation of our research analysts is determined exclusively by research management and senior management, but not including investment banking management. Compensation is not based on specific investment banking revenues, however, it is determined from the profitability of the ABG Sundal Collier Group, which includes earnings from investment banking operations and other business. Investors should assume that ABG Sundal Collier is seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk and sales personnel and other departments for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. From time to time, ABG Sundal Collier and its affiliates and any shareholders, directors, officers or employees thereof may (I) have a position in, or otherwise be interested in, any securities directly or indirectly connected to the subject of this report, or (II) perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other services

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ABGSC Research Department

Joint Global Head of Research John Olaisen +47 22 01 61 87 Christer Linde +46 8 566 286 90

Strategy Metals & Mining Christer Linde, Quant/Technical +46 8 566 286 90 Martin Melbye +47 22 01 61 37 Derek Laliberte +46 8 566 286 78 Bengt Jonassen +47 22 01 60 98 Bengt Jonassen +47 22 01 60 98 Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35

Capital Goods Oil & Gas Anders Idborg +46 8 566 286 74 John Olaisen +47 22 01 61 87 Olof Cederholm +46 8 566 286 22 Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen +47 22 01 61 65 Karl Bokvist +46 8 566 286 33 Oil Service Chemicals John Olaisen +47 22 01 61 87 Martin Melbye +47 22 01 61 37 Haakon Amundsen +47 22 01 60 25 Bengt Jonassen +47 22 01 60 98 Lukas Daul +47 22 01 61 39 Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35 Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen +47 22 01 61 65

Construction & Real Estate Online Gaming Tobias Kaj +46 8 566 286 21 Aksel Øverland Engebakken +47 22 01 61 11 Bengt Jonassen +47 22 01 60 98 Erik Moberg +46 8 566 286 87 Laurits Louis Kjaergaard +45 35 46 30 12 Stefan Knutsson +46 8 566 286 37 Consumer Goods Jesper Birch-Jensen +46 8 566 286 13 Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35 Pulp & Paper Morten Raunholt Eismark +45 35 46 30 16 Martin Melbye +47 22 01 61 37 Ludvig Kapanen +46 8 566 286 91 Øystein Elton Lodgaard +47 22 01 60 26 Credit Research Rikard Magnus Braaten +47 22 01 60 86 Renewable Energy Andreas Johannessen +47 22 01 60 31 Casper Blom +45 35 46 30 15 Haakon Amundsen +47 22 01 60 25 Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35

Glenn Kringhaug +47 22 01 61 62 Retail Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen +47 22 01 61 65 Fredrik Ivarsson +46 8 566 286 95 Eric Wahlström +46 8 566 286 25 Ludvig Kapanen +46 8 566 286 91 Financials Seafood Magnus Andersson +46 8 566 294 69 Martin Kaland +47 22 01 60 67 Mads Thinggaard +45 35 46 30 18

Patrik Brattelius +46 8 566 286 64 Services Jan Erik Gjerland +47 22 01 61 16 Morten Raunholt Eismark +45 35 46 30 16 Jonas Bru Lien +47 22 01 61 71 Victor Forssell +46 8 566 286 92

Food & Beverages Shipping & Transport Morten Raunholt Eismark +45 35 46 30 16 Dennis Anghelopoulos +47 22 01 60 37

Healthcare Casper Blom +45 35 46 30 15 Rickard Anderkrans +46 8 566 286 73 Lukas Daul +47 22 01 61 39

Viktor Sundberg +46 8 566 286 41 Telecom Operators Daniel Thorsson +46 8 566 286 82 Peter Kurt Nielsen +44 207 905 5631 Victor Forssell +46 8 566 286 92 Jannick Lindegaard Denholt +45 35 46 30 13 Utilities Martin Melbye +47 22 01 61 37 lnvestment Companies Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35 Derek Laliberte +46 8 566 286 78

Small Caps IT Daniel Thorsson +46 8 566 286 82 Aksel Øverland Engebakken +47 22 01 61 11 Laurits Louis Kjaergaard +45 35 46 30 12 Daniel Thorsson +46 8 566 286 82 André Thormann +45 35 46 30 19 Simon Granath +46 8 566 286 32 Jesper Birch-Jensen +46 8 566 286 13

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