Statistics and Baseball: the First Statistician
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AN HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF 1 1 A Historical Analysis of the Chicago Cubs’ Use of 2 Statistics to Analyze Baseball Performance* 3 Alan S. Kornspan 4 5 University of Akron 6 7 *Pre-print manuscript for the published article, “Kornspan, A. S. (2014). A historical 8 analysis of the Chicago Cubs’ use of statistics to analyze baseball performance. NINE: 9 A Journal of Baseball History and Culture, 23 (1), 17-40.” 10 Copyright by University of Nebraska Press 11 Publisher: University of Nebraska Press. 12 13 Link to Home Page for NINE: A Journal of Baseball History and Culture: 14 http://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/catalog/CategoryInfo.aspx?cid=163 15 16 Link to Published Copy on Project Muse: 17 https://muse.jhu.edu/journals/nine/v023/23.1.kornspan.html 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Author Note. Alan S. Kornspan is an Associate Professor in the Department of Sport 37 Science and Wellness Education. 38 Address correspondence to: Alan S. Kornspan, Department of Sport Science and 39 Wellness Education, University of Akron, 307-B InfoCision Stadium, Akron, OH 40 44325-5103; 41 330-972-8145 (work) 42 330-972-5293 (fax) 43 [email protected] 44 AN HISTORICAL ANALYSIS 2 45 An Historical Analysis of the Chicago Cubs’ Use of 46 Statistics to Analyze Baseball Performance 47 Recently, the discussion of baseball statistics has become a popularized aspect of 48 today’s culture. For instance, a best-selling book, Moneyball, portrayed general manager 49 Billy Beane’s use of statistical analysis to lead the Oakland Athletics organization.1 50 While modern best-selling books and films have focused on the use of baseball statistics, 51 there has been a long history of the utilization of statistical analysis within professional 52 baseball.2 For example, one of the first individuals to scrutinize baseball statistics was 53 Henry Chadwick. Throughout the 1860s, Chadwick initiated the recording of home runs, 54 hits, and total bases which influenced others to devise statistics such as the batting 55 average.3 56 Even though statistical analysis has been interwoven within baseball culture for 57 decades, a question of interest is when did Major League Baseball (MLB) teams initiate 58 the utilization of individuals to collect and analyze baseball performance data to assist in 59 coaching decisions and athletic improvement? Baseball historians have noted Branch 60 Rickey’s influence on the development of the use of statistical analysis in professional 61 baseball.4 While acknowledgement is provided to Rickey for hiring Allan Roth, a full- 62 time statistician for the Brooklyn Dodgers, recent authors have also recognized Philip 63 Wrigley’s use of performance data to assist the Chicago Cubs.5 Holtzman believed that 64 Wrigley should receive credit as one of the first individuals to use statistical analysis in 65 professional baseball.6 According to Dewey, until the 1930s, professional baseball teams 66 only utilized data to provide an explanation of what baseball players did on the field of AN HISTORICAL ANALYSIS 3 67 play.7 Dewey suggested that Wrigley was the first to use statistics to analyze how players 68 performed in various situations.8 69 Although the use of statistics throughout the history of baseball has been 70 documented, few details about Philip K. Wrigley’s employment of individuals in the late 71 1930s to provide data analysis for the Chicago Cubs organization have been discussed. 72 Since minimal attention has examined Wrigley’s utilization of statistical analysis during 73 the late 1930s, an assumption may be presumed that before the late 1940s, few team 74 statisticians provided professional baseball management and coaches with detailed 75 information to aid in decision making and performance improvement. Therefore, this 76 manuscript details the work of Coleman R. Griffith, Jack Sterrett, and Chester Lynn 77 Snyder who were hired by Philip K. Wrigley in the late 1930s to assist with the collection 78 and analysis of baseball data.9 Additionally, this paper provides information about 79 individuals who provided the Chicago Cubs organization with statistical analysis in the 80 1950s and 1960s including, Cliff Jaffee, Stan West, Don Biebel, and Ed Whitlow. 81 Hence, the purpose of this paper is to detail the initiation of the use of data 82 analysis by Philip K. Wrigley and the Chicago Cubs organization. First, an overview of 83 Coleman R. Griffith’s beliefs about the importance of statistical analysis and athletics are 84 described. Next, Wrigley’s views and applications of science to improve performance are 85 presented. Specifically, a synopsis of the Chicago Cubs Experimental Laboratories will 86 be depicted. This is followed by reasons Wrigley employed individuals to investigate the 87 scientific components of baseball. Following a discussion of these motives, the work that 88 Griffith, Sterrett, and Snyder provided to the Chicago Cubs will be recounted. The 89 growth of the utilization of statistical analysis by the Chicago Cubs throughout the 1940s AN HISTORICAL ANALYSIS 4 90 to the 1970s is delineated. Finally, the Chicago Cubs current use of data analysis is 91 presented. 92 Coleman Griffith, Jack Sterrett and the 93 Chicago Cubs Experimental Laboratories 94 Dr. Coleman R. Griffith, the director of the Athletic Research Laboratory at the 95 University of Illinois, believed that statistical records could be utilized as a critical tool in 96 helping athletes enhance performance.10 Specifically, in the text Psychology of Coaching, 97 Griffith explained how data analysis could be utilized in various sports. Examples were 98 provided of how business used statistical analysis which was disseminated in the Babson 99 Reports.11 Likewise, Griffith’s viewpoint was that coaches and athletes could benefit if 100 they utilized data in a comparable manner. Griffith stated: 101 There is only one way to be absolutely sure of selecting the right man for the right 102 place and that is to secure all the statistical data about him that can be gotten. 103 Information should be obtained not only from formal games but during every 104 practice hour.12 105 Additionally, in the Psychology of Coaching, illustrations are provided of how 106 baseball statistics can be utilized for decision making and to assist athletes with various 107 technical and tactical elements which can be improved. Griffith proposed that data could 108 be collected on a pitcher’s accuracy by charting whether a pitch was high, low, inside, or 109 outside. Additionally, he suggested that records of balls and strikes for the batter and the 110 location of hits could be recorded.13 111 Griffith also provided an example of a case study utilizing baseball statistics. In 112 this illustration, he presented the types of hits two batters produced. The data AN HISTORICAL ANALYSIS 5 113 demonstrated that the first hitter hit mostly grounders to the left of the pitcher while the 114 second batter mostly hit the ball in the air to right field. According to Griffith, when the 115 coach decided who should pinch hit with a winning run on base, he used the statistical 116 data to make the decision. Thus, the manager chose the individual who was more likely 117 to hit the ball to the outfield on a fly, which would allow the base runner to score on a 118 sacrifice fly.14 119 Griffith’s Ideas Presented to Wrigley 120 Over a decade after Griffith wrote about how statistics could be beneficial for 121 making baseball decisions, Philip K. Wrigley contacted Coleman Griffith to explore how 122 Griffith could potentially assist the Chicago Cubs.15 Wrigley was aware of how statistics 123 were being used both in business and in other sports. In fact, he believed that a scientific 124 approach could be useful in assisting professional baseball organizations to better 125 understand how athletes can develop their skill in order to progress toward the major 126 leagues.16 Perhaps Wrigley was also aware of the work of Travis Hoke who collected 127 statistical data for Branch Rickey and the St. Louis Browns baseball team during the 128 1914 and 1915 baseball seasons.17 Only two years before Wrigley began to contemplate 129 the utilization of statistical data for the Cubs, Hoke published an article in Esquire 130 explaining how he compiled data for the St. Louis Browns.18 131 Angle, in the Biography Philip K. Wrigley: A Memoir of a Modest Man, 132 explained the situation that influenced Wrigley to correspond with Griffith about 133 assisting the Chicago Cubs.19 Wrigley observed a batting practice in which a rookie was 134 pitching to a successful veteran. As the rookie pitcher was struggling, Wrigley asked the 135 veteran if he would assist the rookie in learning how to be a more successful pitcher. The AN HISTORICAL ANALYSIS 6 136 veteran hitter was reluctant to offer assistance. Thus, based on that circumstance, Wrigley 137 began to contemplate a more efficient way to instruct future major league professionals. 138 Subsequently, Wrigley became cognizant of the work Coleman Griffith was conducting 139 and the success that he had with the University of Illinois football team.20 140 After contemplating if there may be a better way to train athletes and learning of 141 Coleman Griffith’s work, Wrigley contacted Griffith to explain his inquiry. Wrigley 142 described to Griffith that scouts would frequently have dissimilar opinions of players 143 when observing athletes in the minor leagues. Therefore, Wrigley asked Griffith: 144 Can’t we take an established ball player and in some way measure his skills, his 145 reactions, reflexes or what have you so that we can chart them.