68 THE CORNWALLIS GROUP XI: ANALYSIS FOR CIVIL-MILITARY TRANSITIONS Democracy as a Tool for Stabilizing Peace: The Case of Kosovo J. Matthew Leatherman DFI Government Services Washington, D.C. 20006, U.S.A. e-mail:
[email protected] Matthew Leatherman is a Senior Analyst at DFI Government Services, a Washington D.C.- based consulting firm that specializes in national security strategy and policy. At DFI, Matthew supports analyses of regional security dynamics, security cooperation policy, and civil-military operations. This essay is an outgrowth of a DFI project charged with assessing Kosovo’s security sector, but it was conducted in a strictly personal capacity. Matthew is currently engaged in developing a prototype for dynamic information sharing in stability operations. He is a alumnus of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. INTRODUCTION The international security risks inherent in intrastate war and state collapse are acute, and have become increasingly visible in the post-Cold War period. Democratization often is expected to be the most effective method for transitioning states engaged in intrastate war and state collapse into stable and sustainable peace. This strategy is at the forefront of the international community’s stabilization and reconstruction mission in Kosovo. As this process advances toward a final status decision for Kosovo, it is vital to assess its performance and make adjustements, when necessary and while the opportunity is still available. In support of this need, this essay will identify prominent factors expected to support democracy in Kosovo, and then quantitatively evaluate the effects of these factors in nations that experienced intrastate violence or state collapse between 1960 and 1997.