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Transport Appraisal October 2016

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Transport Appraisal October 2016 Transport Appraisal October 2016 PROPOSED PLAN TRANSPORT APPRAISAL 1. This covering paper outlines the transport appraisal process undertaken for the SESplan Proposed Strategic Development Plan (the Proposed Plan). Attached is the transport appraisal report, produced by appointed transport consultants SYSTRA, setting out the predicted impacts and outline mitigation options of the potential level of additional housing development that is estimated to be required to meet the Housing Supply Targets in the Proposed Plan. Based on current estimates, only City of Edinburgh may be required to identify additional housing land above what is identified in adopted and emerging Local Development Plans (LDPs). All other SESplan member authorities are not predicted at this point to need to identify additional housing land above what is emerging from their LDPs. The exact level of additional housing required will depend on land supplies during the preparation of the next round of LDPs following the approval of the Strategic Development Plan. 2. A transport appraisal is a process which allows the relationship between land use, such as housing development, and movement, such as car journeys, to be taken into account when preparing development plans. It helps shape the spatial strategy, identifies regional level impacts of the strategy on the strategic transport network and presents outline mitigation options that could be delivered to support development. The latter will be further examined in future appraisal work, including that undertaken to support the next Edinburgh LDP. 3. The 2013 Strategic Development Plan and Housing Land Supplementary Guidance were also accompanied by transport appraisals1. These identified that, as the result of development proposed over the plan period to 2024, there would be significant negative impacts on journey times and congestion on the strategic road network. The majority of impacts were identified on road approaches to Edinburgh (e.g. M9, M8, A1, etc) and on the A720 Edinburgh Bypass. Subsequent to this, each SESplan member authority LDP has undergone a transport appraisal2 identifying detailed impacts in each area and a range of transport interventions to contribute towards mitigating the impacts. 1 SDP1 Transport Appraisal, SDP1 Transport Appraisal Appendices, Housing Land Supplementary Guidance Transport Appraisal 1 4. The Proposed Plan spatial strategy was informed by the findings from the transport appraisal of the 2013 Strategic Development Plan and transport appraisals of the emerging LDPs. Whilst this would not be normal practice, the Proposed Plan does not forecast additional levels of development, except in City of Edinburgh, and therefore the strategy can be informed by the findings of these studies. In addition an Accessibility Analysis (2014) was undertaken to identify the accessibility of settlements and potential development areas to employment and other generators of travel by public transport. These studies underpinned the preferred ‘Growth Corridors’ strategy in the 2015 Main Issues Report. This strategy involves locating a greater proportion of development in Edinburgh, where over 50% of future additional jobs were forecast, where journeys are shorter and where there is greater public transport infrastructure and services. In this strategy, long term growth is also focused along sustainable transport corridors. The overall approach is to reduce the need to travel, reduce the length and number of additional journeys and support a shift away from private car towards walking, cycling and public transport. 5. The 2013 Strategic Development Plan Transport Appraisal made use of a regional transport model. This model has been updated as part of a Cross Boundary Study (CBS), funded and led by Transport Scotland, to identify the transport impacts of SDP1 and emerging LDPs in greater detail. The study takes into account all sites permitted or allocated for housing, employment, retail and other types of development. When complete, it will identify the cumulative and cross authority boundary impacts of this development and present packages of road and public transport mitigation measures that could be developed to address them. It will be used to provide evidence to underpin a Developer Contributions Framework to be prepared as Supplementary Guidance to the second Strategic Development Plan (SDP2). This will set out an approach to securing proportional developer contributions towards the cost of some of the key transport interventions identified by the appraisals, where the intervention is required because of the cumulative and cross boundary impacts of development. 6. The CBS was due to report in 2015. The initial programme for the Proposed Plan envisaged that a transport appraisal of the additional development required (the Proposed Plan Transport Appraisal attached) would follow the completion of the CBS and be based on its findings. However, due to delays in data gathering and analysis, the final CBS report will not now be available until Autumn 2016. Whilst the CBS outputs are still to be finalised, the Proposed Plan Transport Appraisal was able to take some of the emerging findings into account, identify the additional impacts of it and set out some outline mitigation options. The key finding of the Proposed Plan Transport Appraisal (set out in the Executive Summary) is that the additional impacts of SDP2 are localised and small in proportion to scale of impacts associated with the 2013 Strategic Development Plan, development already permitted or allocated in existing and emerging LDPs. 2 7. The strategic transport interventions included in the Proposed Plan (Table 6.1) are based on the 2013 Plan and Proposed Plan appraisals as well as individual LDP appraisals3. As the CBS is not yet complete, the Proposed Plan does not set out a definitive list of cross boundary measures. We are however able to set out in broad terms the types of interventions that may be required (Table 6.1 Column B), including grade separation of the A720 Sheriffhall Junction. 3 The East Lothian Main Issues Report Transport Appraisal was used, as a finalised Transport Appraisal was not available during production of the Proposed Plan. 3 SESplan Strategic Development Plan 29/07/2016 Reference number 103914 12 SDP2 TRANSPORT APPRAISAL SESPLAN STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN SDP2 TRANSPORT APPRAISAL IDENTIFICATION TABLE Client SESplan Project SESplan Strategic Development Plan Study SDP2 Transport Appraisal Type of document Final Report Date 29/07/2016 File name SDP2 Transport Appraisal Draft Report Reference number 103914 12 Number of pages 56 APPROVAL Version Name Position Date Modifications Associate J Knight Director Author 21/04/2016 Senior L Bacon Consultant 1.3 Initial Draft Associate Checked by J Davidson 22/04/2016 Director Approved Associate J Davidson 22/04/2016 by Director Associate J Knight Director Author 11/05/2016 Senior L Bacon Consultant Revised Draft on Associate receipts of 2 Checked by J Davidson 20/05/2016 Director clients comments Approved Associate J Davidson 20/05/2016 by Director Associate J Knight Director Author 09/06/2016 Senior L Bacon Consultant 3 Associate Checked by J Davidson 09/06/2016 Director Approved Associate J Davidson 09/06/2016 by Director © SYSTRA Ltd 2016 The contents of this proposal remain the intellectual property of SYSTRA Ltd and may be used only in connection with the brief for which it was submitted. It is specifically forbidden to communicate the contents to any third party without prior permission in writing from SYSTRA, and all reasonable precautions must be taken to avoid this occurring. Associate J Knight Director Author 29/07/2016 Senior L Bacon Consultant 4 Associate Checked by J Davidson 29/07/2016 Director Approved Associate J Davidson 29/07/2016 by Director SESplan Strategic Development Plan SDP2 Transport Appraisal 103914 12 Final Report 29/07/2016 Page 3/56 SESplan Strategic Development Plan SDP2 Transport Appraisal 103914 12 Final Report 29/07/2016 Page 4/56 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 1. INTRODUCTION 12 1.1 BACKGROUND 12 1.2 SDP2 APPROACH 13 2. MODELLED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN EDINBURGH 16 2.2 FORECAST LEVEL OF HOUSING DEVELOPMENT 17 3. TRANSPORT MODELLING RESULTS 19 3.1 INTRODUCTION 19 3.2 AGGREGATE STATISTICS 19 3.3 LOCAL AREA IMPACT 23 3.4 DEMAND FLOWS 24 3.5 TRAFFIC VOLUME TO CAPACITY 28 3.6 JOURNEY TIME DATA 33 3.7 PUBLIC TRANSPORT DATA 33 4. IDENTIFICATION OF TRANSPORT IMPACTS 35 4.1 TRANSPORT ISSUES 35 5. POTENTIAL TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS 39 5.1 INTRODUCTION 39 5.2 SCHEME INTERVENTION 39 6. CONCLUSIONS 42 6.1 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 42 APPENDIX A – LEVEL OF SDP2 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT 44 APPENDIX B – ADDITIONAL APPRAISAL METRICS 48 APPENDIX C – LIST OF POSSIBLE SCHEMES 54 APPENDIX D – MODELLING PARAMETER – PASSQ 55 SESplan Strategic Development Plan SDP2 Transport Appraisal 103914 12 Final Report 29/07/2016 Page 5/56 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Modelling Procedure to Develop SDP2 Transport Mitigation Measures 9 Figure 2. Modelling Procedure to Develop SDP2 Transport Mitigation Measures 13 Figure 3. Location of Modelled Additional Development in Edinburgh 18 Figure 4. Increase in travel time, km travelled and lost time (congestion) by Local Authority 23 Figure 5. Change in Flows - AM Peak 26 Figure 6. Change in Flows - PM Peak 26 Figure 7. Percentage Change in Flows - AM Peak 27 Figure 8. Percentage Change in Flows - PM Peak 27 Figure 9. Absolute Change in Flow to Capacity ratio - AM Peak 30 Figure 10. Absolute Change in Flow to Capacity ratio - PM Peak 30 Figure 11. Locations where Demand Exceeds Capacity - AM Peak 31 Figure 12. Locations where Demand Exceeds Capacity - PM Peak 31 Figure 13. New Locations where Demand Becomes Greater than Capacity - AM Peak 32 Figure 14. New Locations where Demand Becomes Greater than Capacity - PM Peak 32 Figure 15. Change in Delays - AM Peak 49 Figure 16. Change in Delays - PM Peak 49 Figure 17. Percentage Change in Delay - AM Peak 50 Figure 18. Percentage Change in Delay - AM Peak 50 Figure 19.
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