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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted in Chengdu Southwest University for Nationalities Student Research Manufacturing Sector: New Energy Industry This report is published for educational purposes only by students Hong Kong Exchange (HKEx) competing in The CFA Institute Research Challenge BYD Company Limited Date:31-Aug-2016 Closing Price: HKD54.00 Recommendation: BUY (20.17% upside) Ticker: BYDHK: Wind Database CNY1.00: HKD1.18 Target Price: HKD64.89 (CNY54.86) Executive Summary Table 1: Market Profile BYD Company (Hong Kong) Limited (BYDHK or the Company) is a Chinese manufacturing Market Profile company, which covers three main areas: Automobile Business (AB), Handset Components and Assembly Services (HC&AS), and Rechargeable Battery and Photovoltaic Business (RB&PB). Closing Price HKD54.00 Investment Recommendation 52-Week High/Low HKD54.00/HKD30.50 We issue a Buy recommendation on BYDHK with a four-month target price of HKD64.89, that is Average Volume(1Y) 6,122,016 20.17% over its August 31, 2016 closing price of HKD54.00. Our target price is primarily based on: Diluted Shares Out 2,728,142,855 Investment Thesis and Outline Market Cap(HKD in Backed by a promising industry outlook, BYDHK continues its leading position in new energy Millions) 16,436 industry. The combination of the Sum-of-The-Parts valuation and current market view of BYDHK’s Beta 1.19 every sector suggest that the stock price of BYDHK is undervalued. This represents an opportunity EV/EBITDA 24.52 to invest in China’s new energy industry. After determining BYDHK’s exposure and mitigants to P/B 3.88 investment risks and evaluate the corresponding impacts on valuation, we arrived a Buy recommendation. P/E 44.37 • Promising Industry Outlook, with the rising concern over environmental and energy problems, Source: Wind Database and strong policy support for new energy industry, the demand of new energy market is on the rise. Table 2: Valuation • Leading Position in New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market, BYDHK occupied the market share Valuation of around 27% of Chinese NEV market, and with its advanced battery technology and vertical integration ability, and independent research and development (R&D) technologies which will Valuation DCF Multiples soon be used in every BYDHK’s NEV, it is believed that this will enhance BYDHK’s competitive Estimated Price HKD74.60 HKD55.18 position and will at least secure BYDHK’s market share. - Weights 50% 50% BYDHK is expected to reach RMB122.8 billion in NEV market by 2020. - In HC&AS field, BYDHK will get more orders from manufactures in its filed through its new Target Price HKD64.89 material and advanced technologies. Source: Team Calculations • Highly Integrated Business Mode, BYDHK believes through integrating solar power, energy storage and electrified transportation together can achieve company’s main strategy, this will drive BYDHK: Figure 1: Monte Carlo Simulation - More competitive in energy field by reducing manufacturing costs. 30000 - Sell Hold Buy Fully integrating new energy market from electric power generation to electric storage, and 25000 4.19% 35.21% 60.6% finally to electric applying in NEVs and other fields. 20000 • Sum-of-the Parts Valuation, using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), and three ways of 15000 Relative Multiples Valuation to value AB, HC&AS and RB&PB separately. Frequency 10000 • Investment Risks, including regulatory, market, and operational risks that were assessed 1) for 5000 impact and likelihood and subsequently ranked in a risk matrix, and 2) modeled through a Monte Carlo simulation. 0 - The results of the Monte Carlo simulation show: 60.6% of the simulations support a buy recommendation, 35.21% support a hold recommendation, and 4.19% support a sell Sell Hold Buy recommendation. Source: Team Calculations Table 3: Key Financials and Ratios Figure 2: Share Price Movement Key Financials and Ratios 70 4500 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 4000 60 RevenueҁCNY in Billions҂ 55.4 77.6 101.5 120.9 145.6 177.0 217.1 3500 50 3000 Net ProfitҁCNY in Billions҂ 0.7 3.1 5.2 7.3 10.0 13.4 17.8 40 2500 Net Profit Maigin 1.34% 4.04% 5.15% 6.03% 6.86% 7.57% 8.21% 2000 30 Fixed Asset Turnover 1.49 1.99 2.15 2.31 2.46 2.60 2.74 Price Per Share 1500 Hang Seng IndexHang Seng 20 Long-term Liabilities to Assets 0.12 0.10 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 1000 10 500 Interest Coverage 1.53 3.07 3.80 4.71 5.72 6.43 7.05 0 0 Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.18 1.12 1.75 2.48 3.42 4.61 6.16 BYDHK HSCI.HI Return on Equity (ROE) 2.56% 8.71% 9.33% 11.47% 13.52% 15.29% 16.86% Source: Wind Database Source: Company Data,Team Calculations !1 Figure 3: Milestones of BYDHK Business Description Founded in February 1995, BYDHK was listed on Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock 1995: BYD Company founded, with capital Exchange in July 2002 and June 2011, respectively (Figure 3). BYDHK principally engaged in AB of RMB2.5 million and 20 members including traditional fuel-powered vehicles and NEV, as well as handset, computer components and assembly services, and BYDHK is also developing other new energy products such as rechargeable battery (RB), solar power station, energy storage station, LED business, etc. 2002: Listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Main Board (1211.HK) Currently, BYDHK has nearly 200,000 employees and 22 industrial parks in the globe. BYDHK has reached revenue of RMB43,745 million in the first half of 2016 (1H16) (Figure 4), representing a year on year (YoY) increase of 43.74%, having made a profit of RMB2,260 million with YoY growth 2003: Purchased Xi’an Tsinchuan of 384.23%. The earnings per share was RMB0.87, implying a YoY increase of 359.90%. Automobile Company Limited Automobile Business In 2003, BYDHK purchased Xi’an Tsinchuan Auto Co.,Ltd and formed the present BYD Auto Co.,Ltd, 2007:BYD-E listed on the Hong Kong Stock which formally symbolized its entry into the vehicle manufacturing and selling. Nowadays, BYDHK Exchange Main Board(0285.HK) has established six industrial parks of auto industry. The automobile products include high, medium and low end of fuel cars, and also include auto mold, auto parts, dual model electric vehicles and 2008: Warren Buffett invested $232 pure-electric vehicles. The total sales volume of car increased to 180,000 with the YoY growth of million to take a 9.89% stake in BYDHK -14.28% in 1H16 (Figure 5). Comparing with the decline in sales volume of fuel cars, NEV has realized a rapid growth, whose sales volume has increased to 49,000 with YoY growth of 130.74% and ranks the first in the world reaching out to 190 cities in 43 countries of six continents. In public 2011 BYD (002594.SZ) was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange transportation, BYDHK will continue to expand the application of pure-electronic buses and taxis in global markets. BYDHK has successively won the UN-DESA Energy Grant and Zayed Future Energy Prize since its popularization and application of the green energy. 2014: BYDHK announced the “5-4-2 Initiative” for NEV Handset Components and Assembly Services As one of the most comprehensively competitive HC&AS suppliers around the world, BYDHK provides vertically integrated one-stop services from whole product design, component 2015: BYDHK launched “7+4” Vehicle manufacturing to assembly services for both domestic and overseas markets, and also provides Electrification Strategy other electronic products’ design, component production and assembly services. According to the interim report in 2016, this business realized a revenue of approximately RMB16,293 million, of Source:Company Data which 95.03% came from its holding company-BYD Electronic (International) Company Limited (BYD-E) (Figure 7). Handset assembly mainly including EMS and ODM and metal casing are the products that contribute most to the revenue of this business. Rechargeable Battery and Photovoltaic Business Figure 4: 1H16 Revenue Breakdown BYDHK’s RB business mainly includes the lithium-ion battery and nickel battery, which are widely used on handsets, digital cameras, power tools, electric toys and all areas of portable electronic devices. And, BYDHK also actively researches on and develops power batteries, energy storage batteries and solar battery products to be applied in the NEV, storage power station and photovoltaic power station. The company focuses on the new energy chains to provide clients with the integrative solutions in power generation, storage, transmission and utilization. Several solar programs of BYDHK have already successively operated in the international markets, including the United States, German, Japan, United Kingdom, Indian and South Africa, having recorded the revenue of RMB4.06 billion in 1H16 and turned around with a profit (Figure 8). Meanwhile, BYDHK has its advanced Double-glazed Solar Photovoltaic module technology, which has a longer product life cycle and more durable than other products. Strategy • Three Green Energy Dreams. This is the final vision of BYDHK to realize the zero emission, zero pollution, green energy solutions of the whole industry chain from power generation, storage, transmission to usage (Figure 9). Source: 2016 Interim Report • The Strategy of Vigorously Developing the NEVs - BYDHK put forward the “7+4” Vehicle Electrification Strategy (“7+4”) (Figure 6), sparing no efforts to realize the market diversification. “7+4” refers to popularizing the NEV and realizing its overall coverage in seven conventional fields (private cars, buses, taxis, sanitation vehicles, urban commodity logistics, passengers transportation and urban construction logistics) and four specialized fields (warehousing, mines, ports and airports).