Rethinking the Future of the Colorado River: Draft Interim Report of the Colorado River Governance Initiative
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University of Colorado Law School Colorado Law Scholarly Commons Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Books, Reports, and Studies Resources, Energy, and the Environment 2010 Rethinking the Future of the Colorado River: Draft Interim Report of the Colorado River Governance Initiative Colorado River Governance Initiative University of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center Western Water Policy Program Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.law.colorado.edu/books_reports_studies Part of the Water Law Commons, and the Water Resource Management Commons Citation Information Rethinking the Future of the Colorado River: Draft Interim Report of the Colorado River Governance Initiative (Natural Res. Law Ctr., Univ. of Colo. Law Sch. 2010). RETHINKING THE FUTURE OF THE COLORADO RIVER: DRAFT INTERIM REPORT OF THE COLORADO RIVER GOVERNANCE INITIATIVE (Natural Res. Law Ctr., Univ. of Colo. Law Sch. 2010). Reproduced with permission of the Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Resources, Energy, and the Environment (formerly the Natural Resources Law Center) at the University of Colorado Law School. RETHINKING THE FUTURE OF THE COLORADO RIVER Draft Interim Report of the Colorado River Governance Initiative December, 2010 For more information, visit www.waterpolicy.info or contact [email protected] I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 2 II. The Argument for Significant Institutional Reform .................................................................. 3 The Broken Water Budget ........................................................................................................ 3 The Current Pathway to Reconciliation.................................................................................... 10 Shortcomings of the Current Approach ................................................................................... 12 The Upper Basin Climate Change Squeeze .......................................................................... 13 The Potential Role of Compact Calls in Future Basin Administration ................................. 17 III. Understanding the Resistance to Change ................................................................................ 19 Fear of Change .......................................................................................................................... 20 Substantive Misunderstandings ............................................................................................... 22 IV. Conclusions: Looking Forward ................................................................................................ 26 V. Literature Cited ......................................................................................................................... 28 Appendix A: An Overview of the Law and the River Issues, Omissions and Ambiguities............ 31 Appendix B: Stressors and Threats to the Water Budget of the Colorado River ........................ 57 Appendix C: Colorado River Issues and Options: Survey of CRWUA Members .......................... 83 List of Tables [in main report only] Table 1. Projected Upper Basin Depletions ................................................................................. 8 Table 2. Efforts to Clarify and Enforce Existing Water Allocation Rules (Pathway # 1) ............... 14 Table 3. Perceptions, by Sub-Region, of the Severity of Problems and the Need for Action...... 23 Table 4. Perceptions of Problem Severity & the Need for Action by Belief in Future Flow Reductions .................................................................................................................................... 24 List of Figures [in main report only] Figure 1. Colorado River Flows to the Delta ................................................................................. 3 Figure 2. Storage on Lakes Powell and Mead, 1998 to 2010 ....................................................... 4 Figure 3. System-wide Supplies and Demands ............................................................................ 5 Figure 4. Storage in Lake Powell as a Function of Natural Inflows .............................................. 6 Figure 5. Storage in Lake Mead as a Function of Lake Powell Releases ...................................... 7 Figure 6. Supplies and Demands of Mainstem Water ................................................................. 9 Figure 7. Potential Pathways for Addressing Colorado River Issues ........................................... 11 Figure 8. Water Availability (by sub-basin) as a Function of Long-Term Average Flows ............. 16 1 I. Introduction The Colorado River is one of the most thoroughly studied, debated and contested natural resources in the world, and for good reason. For residents of the seven basin states and northwestern Mexico, it is both an economic lifeline and a cultural marker, massively engineered to provide a steady flow of water and hydropower for cities, farms and industry, while retaining enough wildness to showcase a stunning diversity of physical, environmental and recreational amenities. By almost any standard, it is the jewel of the American Southwest—and it is in trouble. Of all that is expected of the river, the primary focus of the struggles and investments—of a political, legal, economic and engineering nature—has been to utilize the river as a water supply source, even when this has meant sacrificing other values and uses. But the ability of the physical and institutional system to fulfill this central function is increasingly in doubt and, for a variety of reasons, is likely to become further compromised should we continue along the current management pathway. The Colorado River Governance Initiative (CRGI), based at the University of Colorado Law School, is a research project inspired by several decades of research on Colorado River issues, all culminating in the belief that significant institutional reforms must be an essential component of any strategy to effectively address the region’s water management challenges of today and tomorrow. Inevitably, this means reexamining the structure and functioning of the “Law of the River,” the suite of laws and policies governing water allocation and river management, all built upon the Colorado River Compact (the “Compact”) of 1922.1 It is worth explicitly noting that the CRGI is not based on the premise that the Compact must be “thrown out” or “renegotiated”; those actions are not politically viable, and ignore the fact that the core principles articulated in the Compact are appropriate and highly valued. But the way in which those core principles are translated into river management and water allocation will need to be revisited, and undoubtedly will be. This, of course, is nothing new. On many occasions—the latest being the negotiation of the “Interim Guidelines” in 20072—such discussions have occurred, and incremental reform has resulted. What is different now is that we are at a point in which incremental reform along the “traditional” pathway has reached a point of diminishing returns, and may in fact be stifling efforts to consider different, and better, future pathways. It is the aim of the CRGI to show the shortcomings of the current trajectory and, therefore, the 1 This paper is designed for individuals with a working familiarity with the basin and its management, including the Law of the River. For those desiring more background information, Appendix A provides a general review. 2 USBR, 2007. Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Department of the Interior. http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies.html 3 Much of this discussion draws from the CRGI white paper: “Stressors and Threats to the Water Budget of the 2 USBR, 2007. Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Department of the Interior. http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies.html 2 value of considering significantly different approaches, and to inspire and cultivate the new ideas that will allow basin leaders to more effectively address the challenges that lie ahead. In this Interim Phase 1 Report, we summarize research and analysis conducted in Year 1 of the CRGI, focused primarily on articulating the argument for significant reform. In the Phase 1 Comprehensive Report due in draft form at the completion of Year 2 (December 2011), this discussion will be expanded to include a more detailed discussion of specific reform options. II. The Argument for Significant Institutional Reform The Broken Water Budget3 The argument for change on the Colorado River begins with a simple, and largely irrefutable, observation: as a water supply source, the river is already stretched to its limits. There are several indicators of this reality. First, significant flows have not consistently reached its terminus in the Colorado River delta for half a century, as shown in Figure 1.4 30 25 20 Feet Feet (MAF) - 15 10 5 Million Acre Million 0 Figure 1. Colorado River Flows to the Delta 3 Much of this discussion draws from the CRGI white paper: “Stressors and Threats to the Water Budget of the Colorado River Basin” by John Berggren, Doug Kenney, and Anne Bensard (2010). That report is attached here as Appendix B. 4 Figure 1 is adapted from data compiled by Kevin Wheeler. At one time, the Delta was among the most